Ed That is why it is a good idea to vote earlier than the last day of early voting. I note that Palmerston North has 6 advance voting places; so even if one of them is controlled by misinformed people, there are other options. Of course, they should also ...
Voting early is a very good idea, because that way you can try again if you are obstructed. Go with a support person if you are not confident in arguing with the officials (most political party would have volunteers happy to drive you down and assist you -...
Incognito I was mainly replying to ianmac's comment (which you seemed to be in agreement with); "People make up their mind on the way to the booth so the final decision can swing either way". But I did get pretty rambly. Hopefully political polls have ...
Saw this in The Guardian, and it is interesting to see our election reported for the rest of the world who are barely aware of Aotearoa. This description of Ardern wouldn't have been one I'd have gone with (though I assume it is accurate): the former ...
You don't even understand how wrong you are. But amusingly I saw that you referenced a normal distribution, but the with the range being limited at zero, you should really employ your namesake; the Poisson distribution.
Undecided voters who make up their mind on the day will never be captured by any poll. The problem is even greater now with the amount of early voting during a period while polls are still being conducted and published. Still, given the wide variation ...
swordfish Yes; RM is not the most hasty of polls, but it does have the huge advantage of being done every month whether there is an election or not. It seems to follow that; the influence of other polls in the poll of polls is greater at election time when...
mikesh If I had my choice, I'd be voting for MANA again, as they have been a consistant voice for the underclass in Aotearoa (Māori and Pākehā). Their policy releases have been ongoing throughout the election campaign, but not got a lot of cut through, ...
There is also this Horizon poll out today: Among those who are registered, have made up their minds and will definitely vote, National has 38.5% support.Labour has 38.2%.New Zealand First has 9.8%, the Green Party 7.7%. https://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/...
If anyone is still determined to vote for TOP, this may give you some pause: He wants 10 to 15 per cent of the party vote. Only then would he feel the ethical mandate to go into politics full time... But if the Opportunities Party polls lower than that - ...
Bill He was Frankenstein's (film not book) servant*, so the analogy would work if you said something like: The mad scientists of Liberalism and their Igor servants from various media have have failed to quell the sense of disquiet, as their grotesque ...
This was on stuff today: Parker said Bill English and John Key would have been aware no legal advice existed, and said National likely continued the cover-up as it would have been "deeply embarrassed" about the "wasted expenditure". https://www.stuff.co.nz...
ropata Maybe he has dual citizenship? I haven't seen it mentioned anywhere if he does. He calls people examining his past a; “smear campaign” targeting him “just because I am Chinese”, but Pansy Wong was also a Chinese Nat, and I don't recall her ever ...
I find Yang's defense a bit unconvincing: Asked if he made a false declaration on his citizenship application, Yang said giving the name of "partnership" universities instead of the institutes he actually worked and studied at was not a false declaration ...
This from Bradbury was interesting (usual condiment recommendations apply): I met Jian Yang once in his role as the head of politics at Auckland University when I was applying for post graduate study and I was always surprised in my 20 minute interview ...
Seriously; the defense committee? That's not in his wikipedia page; not that much is. The CV only says; "Member of Parliament". [edit] I see it now - eyes must have glazed over at that point: As an MP he variously served on Parliament's Foreign Affairs, ...
The best thing about voting early is that you suddenly stop caring so much about what the polls are saying.
swordfish That's good to know; CB certainly seem to be a lot more frequent during the election. Would I be right in supposing that the Roy Morgan is likely on Friday too (sampling 26/8 - 10/9)?
mary_a If anything, that Peters; "suggested", that Labour might be involved in leaking Yang's background to the media, suggests to me that NZF themselves might have been behind it. Though, on the basis that; whipping up a yellow peril furor during the ...
So, Trump necessarily lost the 2016 USAn election because he had the least money (according to the charts in that blog)? Donations of volunteer time and passion, plus unpaid media space seem to be more effective. I guess personality and message count for ...
Weka Yes! The more time the better from the GP perspective. The Ardern wave has to break sometime, and her support for the TPPA might just be the rock that collapses it. It won't matter to ex-National voters who just want to vote for the winning side (...
DTB Money alone doesn't win elections - otherwise TOP would be much higher in the polls and the IMPs would have got a majority last election. It is a shortsighted business that only donates to one side in an election. No matter who forms the government. ...
"Hurricane Ardern"? It is a nice enough cartoon, but hurricanes are named with firstnames, not surnames (eg; Harvey, Irma, Jose). Gordon Campbell was more on point with his; "Hurricane Jacinda", which comes from a good post that has some relevance to the ...
If this RM is for the period 28/8-10/9, then it'll be a few days yet. Maybe Friday (15/9)?
Well at 30 on the Labour list, Russell is likely to become an MP anyway. Tamu is a bit unlikely at 17 on the GP list - good luck to her in the electorate.
The combined Labour & GP party vote total for Nelson in 2014 wasn't so very much less than the National party vote: 14,782 (9,401+ 5,381) to 16,904 and I imagine it will be tighter this year. The problem is the way that Smith picks up split votes from the ...
blue Where are you in that you believe that electorate voting Green has any chance of success? I suppose Wellington Central has a decent enough chance of having the party vote won by the GP. But last time even though they beat Labour there (though both ...
A Shaw/ Robertson deal would make sense, but Nelson might be a better spot for a GP/ Labour deal, (given the GP bequest that has to be spent in the area & Nick Smith's unpopularity). But I imagine that the Ardern Labour-led government will implement the ...
These are the split votes stats from 2014: http://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/elect-splitvote-12.html Parker is number 10 on the list, so will get into parliament anyway, Wood is now over in Mt Roskill - electorate voting for ...
I will be going into town tomorrow with my daughter anyway and will vote then (as it's a couple of ks to the nearest voting place). Which leaves me free for scrutineering on the day (a boring but necessary part of our democracy). Green Party, Labour ...
April fools' day.
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