. Much simpler: Fait Accompli Election: Unpopular, deeply Polarising Opposition Leader of a Party well behind in the Polls & widely perceived to be in disarray ... up against a highly regarded Govt (albeit centred largely on the handling of one dominant ...
. Possibly ... but bear in mind that if that demographic rationale is correct then it should've applied in 2017 too ... and yet the Advance vs Election Day differences were minimal in that Election. Just over 1 million Advanced Votes in 2017 (compared to ...
Suspect Labour will end up closer to 51% than 50% after Specials ... acknowledged expert Graeme Edgler guesses 49.9% ... I think that's too low. (Only proviso ... that no-one has mentioned afaik ... is the uncertain implications arising from the unique ...
Could you possibly TAKE it easy WITH the bold and italics, Drowsy ? Emphasis on too MANY conjunctions Giving ME a headache.
Exactly. It's the experiences of the outsized first Bolger Govt that Labour should be studying with care.
Ashburton, Methven, Temuka and Timaru, Rangitata’s population centres, aren’t townships that spring to mind when discussing the Labour Party (big ups to those Labour activists who hung in there and triumphed anyway). Ashburton & Methven have always been ...
OMG Red. I'd just go for a surfing metaphor. OMG OMG OMG THIS ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Sooooo much THIS !!!
Auckland -Lab- .... -Green- .... -L+G- ......... -Nat- .... -ACT- .... -N+A- .... -NZF- 48.8% ....... 7.6% ....... 56.4% .......... 29.7% .... 7.6% ......37.3% ...... 2.1% . Constituent Regions Central/City 49.5% ...... 14.0% ....... 63.5% ........ 23.7% ...
. So ... Wellington Wellington (Greater) -Lab- .... -Green- .... -L+G- ........... -Nat- .... -ACT- .... -N+A- .... -NZF- 52.6% ....... 15.7% ...... 68.3% ............ 18.9% ..... 5.6% ...... 24.5% ...... 2.1% Constituent Regions City 48.5% ....... 22.6% ...
Yeah, bit of both, I'd say.
Cheers, M ... appreciate the help.
. A few Questions for you avant-garde Auckland Types with your fancy Post-modern Hairdos (if you'd be so kind as to reply at your earliest convenience) I'm thinking of looking at the geography of the Vote (incl the swing). Amongst other things, I want to ...
Interesting / Surprising that, back in the early-mid 80s, Colin James had Winston down as one of National's Drys (in the Ruth Richardson Camp).
. First time I ever saw one Winston Raymond Peters was in National's 1978 Election Campaign ads ... he pretended to be a neutral journalist interviewing Muldoon ... and at the end turned to the camera, as if an objective observer who had clearly just been ...
. A few Questions for you avant-garde Auckland Types with your fancy Post-modern Hairdos (if you'd be so kind as to reply at your earliest convenience) I'm thinking of looking at the geography of the Vote (incl the swing). Amongst other things, I want to ...
Advance Vote here https://www.electionresults.govt.nz/advance-votes.html Subtracted Advance Vote from Overall Vote to get Election Day Vote (obviously excludes Specials at this stage)
. Advance Vote ... Vs ... Election Day Vote Lab ...... 51.0% ................ 45.2% Green ... 8.1% .................. 6.4% (L+G) .... 59.1% ................ 51.6% Nat ...... 25.5% ................ 30.3% ACT ....... 7.5% ................... 9.3% (N+A) .... ...
Specials might just push Labour back over 50% ... and the Nats below 26%.
There will be Blood https://twitter.com/henrycooke/status/1317405224944857089
The farmers swinging to ACT ... The Townies swinging to Labour, I'll be bound. Easy to overestimate the % of Farmers in Rural Seats ... always far more townies than a lot of pundits realise.
Early on in the Night ... but I'm calling it for Labour. You heard it here first.
Yep ... same here .... clearly somewhat more Left-leaning Advance Vote counted early / came in first.
2017 Specials saw Nat down 1.6 .... Lab up 1.1 .... Greens up 0.4. Should be more Special Votes this time ...
Yep ... as the Election Day votes come in ... Labour & the Greens slowly dropping ... Nats & ACT slowly creeping up. But then Specials will no doubt move things back in a Leftward direction in a few weeks time.
Looks like the Nats may have suffered a somewhat milder version of 2002's last minute Death Spiral ... except this time the swing was to Labour rather than NZF, UF, ACT. (Most Nat-to-ACT swingers had obviously already decided weeks ago ... I'm speculating ...
. Unless things change dramatically (highly unlikely) looks like it's gonna be a bad night for Colmar Brunton & Reid Research too. Final Polls ............. Lab ..... Nat CB ....... 46.0 ... 31.0 RR ....... 45.8 .... 31.1 UMR .... 50.0 .... 29.0 RM ..........
Bishop Tamaki or Bishop Chris ?
Nats 3rd in the Party-Vote in Auckland Central (that sort of thing only used to happen in Aro Valley).
That notion of Green under-performance is part Myth / part Kernel of Truth. The Greens do usually underperform on their (temporarily inflated) Poll ratings during the final 3 weeks of the Election Campaign ... but more often than not they do a little ...
Lab 6 points ahead in True Blue Bay of Plenty (Party-Vote) ... Lab + Green slightly ahead of Nat + ACT.
. You've all relentlessly been taking the piss out of Judith ... & now she's thoroughly redeemed herself ... I hope you'll all be eating humble pie.
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