Mr Hide said he was not putting pressure on Mr Garrett in terms of whether he should quit Parliament. "But it seems to me the people elected five ACT MPs -- not four and an independent," he said. The allocation of five MPs came after Mr Hide's successful ...
Umm, I'd thought the difference was that the Electoral Integrity Act expired. When Huata left, there was a legal mechanism in place by which ACT could get her expelled from Parliament so the next one on the list could come in. That would have taken a vote ...
I'm less worried about folks trying to deceive me and more about folks having deceived themselves. In general, if I'm spouting nonsense and somebody challenges me to put money on it, it forces me to consider how strongly I believe what I'm saying.
I can grant that somebody might take on a position for sake of looking convincing. But unwillingness to take on a position also says something.
1. Saying you believe X, but being unwilling to put money on X, suggests you don't believe X as much as you said you did. 2. Putting money on X makes it more likely that you believe what you said, especially if the money stakes are greater than the "...
I think folks here like to self-deceive about the relative chances of their preferred parties, both here and abroad. That one has money on it suggests passing some minimal hurdle.
Buying rather than renting is a bet that house prices won't depreciate substantially. I bought mostly because I wanted to set up heating to a North American standard. But had I thought in 2005 that we'd see a big property crash soon after, I'd have rented ...
And so is buying any share on the stock market (could go up, could go down), same for buying bonds, same for buying a house....
So, felix, if somebody at the bar insists that Canterbury never had the Ranfurly Shield in 2009 - insists it really really strongly - but then refuses to put money on it when you offer him the bet, that then, what, makes you more confident that he believes...
Could be; I've lost track. But Farrar would be one to be putting money on it on iPredict if he reckoned that. I like folks to put their money on it when there's a market letting them do so. Otherwise, I can never tell if they really believe what they're ...
iPredict is a futures market, not a gambling site. There's no difference really between buying futures contracts that pay out on the value of a barrel of oil and contracts that pay out on the outcome of an election. And, of course, if you're SURE that ...
If you're right, then you can go and make a TON of money on the betting markets, that have Labour at only a 30 to 35 percent chance of winning. If you believe what you're saying, go to iPredict, or to BetFair or to CentreBet, and put a pile of money on ...
Umm....you ran a back of the envelope, I spent a month working on it. Collected excise taxes very slightly exceed aggregate external costs (police, health etc).
Well, I suppose I better understand now where the anti-tobacco side is coming from. If you reckon that there's little difference between rounding people up at gun point and throwing them into gas chambers, and selling cigarettes to people who voluntarily ...
iPredict has Brown with a 55% chance of winning; Banks at 39%. Brown will come down a bit in the polls with the credit card stuff, but he's still odds on favourite to win according to folks with money on the line.
Checked -- Greens and Maori opposed.
When did the Police gain this power and what were the various parties' voting records on it? @Sanctuary is right on asset forfeiture: only the Greens and Maori made a stand against that nightmare - Greens very likely because Nandor Tanczos understood how ...
Yeah, I should have said "retired".
Retired is necessary but not sufficient for emeritus status; there is a minimum quality threshold. I don't think we have a single Emeritus in our economics department currently, though many have retired. The title isn't exactly given out like candy. ...
There's one area in which I'll agree with you completely: midwifery. Connected smart middle class folks know that there's massive heterogeneity in qualifications among carers, ranging from a few months' training as a midwife to folks with Bachelors' of ...
Gottfredson argues that greater cognitive capacity makes it more likely that folks follow doctor's instructions and, in particular, complete courses of prescribed medication to the end rather than just stopping when they're feeling better. This doesn't ...
Oops, I hit the wrong reply button and wound up at 14 rather than 13.1111111111111; apologies. I don't see any reason not to point to individual differences in underlying characteristics like intelligence, conscientiousness, or risk-preference as ...
Gottfredson points to IQ differences, but you could also look to differences in individual propensity for risk-taking or conscientiousness. I'll guess that your reply will be that IQ doesn't exist. I'll then reply by arguing that whatever IQ tests measure ...
I totally buy that poor folks have worse health outcomes than richer folks. But, I don't know how much of that is due to relative deprivation as compared to underlying factors that cause both low individual income and adverse health outcomes. See Linda ...
@Bright: Note that I didn't, of course, make that claim. Just that the nice straight upwards line goes away under a more comprehensive selection of country-years. @Nick: Will have to read those; thanks. I'd also really want those kinds of studies to be ...
Do note the rather trenchant critique of The Spirit Level raised by Chris Snowdon. Spirit Level does a lot of cherry-picking of countries and years to make its graphs look the way it wants them to. Adjusting things slightly makes the effects disappear. See...
@Brightred: Again, it would apply to NZ if NZ had gone for the idiot version of 3-strikes, giving everybody the same penalty on the third strike regardless of offense. But that isn't what is here proposed. @Puddlegum: Your comment might apply if the papers...
Re-read the document. It lead to more murders in the US because California had the stupid policy of giving the same sentence for all third strike offences. Justice recommended not doing that; ACT-National bargaining wound up adopting Justice's ...
I did follow the links: I got three pages. Trying again now.. last link now 8 pages with some references...not sure if I missed it the first time or if it's been updated. Thanks either way. I don't get what all this "pricks" and "try another excuse" stuff ...
Bill, those links only give three pages of the document. I'd like to see the full document, even if that makes me a hopeless prick.
Is there any chance you could post the entire document rather than the selected pages? I'd be keen to know what sources they're citing. Joanna Shepherd's work convincingly shows a strong deterrent effect, even on first strikes; Iyengar also shows the ...
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