Seat watch – Ohariu

Written By: - Date published: 7:10 pm, September 20th, 2014 - 24 comments
Categories: election 2014, peter dunne - Tags:

Will the coiffured one win?  Or will Labour’s Virginia Andersen prevail?

19:35: 21.7% counted. The smaller booths.

  • Peter Dunne (UF) 4307
  • Virginia Anderson (Lab) 3804
  • Brett Hudson (Nat) 1748
  • Tane Woodley (GP) 715

This is going well for Ginny. The right vote is splitting nicely.

21:35: 53.3% counted.

  • Peter Dunne (UF) 6814
  • Virginia Anderson (Lab) 6078
  • Brett Hudson (Nat) 2799
  • Tane Woodley (GP) 1215

21:45 Looks like Peter Dunne has survived again.

24 comments on “Seat watch – Ohariu”

  1. karol 1

    Micky, why do you say it’s going well for Virginia? – she’s losing.

  2. Lanthanide 2

    Peter Dunne is going to be an overhang seat this rate. 0.19% of the vote as of this comment, and has been at that level for a while now. ALCP is on 0.26% for comparison.

    • Lanthanide 2.1

      Ban1080 has almost overtaken UF party vote: 0.18% to 0.19%

      ALCP leaving UF in the dust with 0.26%

      • Lanthanide 2.1.1

        Ban1080 is 1 vote behind UF on 0.20%. ALCP streaking ahead to 0.30%.

        Edit: Now 0.21% for Ban1080, 0.20% for UF!

  3. weka 3

    Fucking Green Party. Nice to see the Nat voters are stupid too though.

  4. Ants 4

    Thanks, any updates Greg?

  5. weka 5

    Lamia ‏@LI_politico 8 mins
    Ohariu
    Peter Dunne 4557
    Virginia Andersen 4012 (-545)
    Green candidate 782
    #headdesk
    #decision14

    Lamia ‏@LI_politico 7 mins
    Once again…. MMP? Anyone? Seriously I can’t even.

    • Rosie 5.1

      I don’t effing believe this. WTF is wrong with people giving their electorate to vote to Green when they know how critical is that we vote Ginny in and ditch Dunney. Or do they not get MMP? “Seriously I can’t even”. Never a truer word said.

      Just got back home now and missed most of the election so far due to social deafness and headache and a sicker feeling than I anticipated I’d have tonight. Having a really hard time comprehending WTF is wrong our country at the moment with the results as they are so far.

      Better head into the lounge and get my head around everything……

      • yeshe 5.1.1

        with u rosie .. just too depressing for words.

      • shona 5.1.2

        It’s so difficult to comprehend Rosie and it is beyond reasoning. Suffice to say propaganda works best on a an unthinking zombie population.The vast majority of people still listen to radio, followed up by TV then newspapers. They really are that out of touch. I am nearly 60 and I talk to many young people who don’t even know the need for encryption let alone what programs to use. New Zealanders are in the majority pretty fucking thick. It’s hard to take on board but at this stage in life it is something I accepted many years ago. Oh and I have always regretted coming back here to raise a family. If you are young and unencumbered get the hell out and don’t come back.

        • Rosie 5.1.2.1

          Kia Ora yeshe and shona.

          Yes, I’m having a major comprehension issue, it just won’t go away and I’m in a state of confusion It is beyond reasoning shona, but I believe you are right when talk about a zombie population and how out of touch people are. And if anything has proven how “pretty fucking thick” we are, it is tonight.

          The last three years. Asset sales, mass surveillance, a level of corruption and deceit never seen before in NZ politics (ala Dirty Politics) Increasing poverty, increasing inequality, affordable housing less and less available, third world diseases in our most impoverished communities and half the voting population have said yes to that.

          We have said yes to mass surveillance which means we have essentially said yes to a fascist state. I just can’t get my head around that.

          And seeing as we’re on the Ohariu post. Dunne still ahead by approx 1000. He won in 2011 by 1392. Labour have worked so hard here and we have such a great candidate who would be so good for the electorate, yet that Laphraoig swilling cigar smoking self serving sod is still winning. So much work has gone into this electorate and yet he just sits back and has an easy ride.

          I can’t bear to watch that goose Key and his victory speech tonight. Off to bed with some panadeine.

          Big ups to all the Left volunteers that worked so hard all around the country You did the right thing by getting involved. Your country let you down.

          • weka 5.1.2.1.1

            Big hugs Rosie. We will regroup when the time is right. Thanks so much for all your hard work.

          • locus 5.1.2.1.2

            +1
            i really can’t comprehend how people decided to vote for such a hollow and unprincipled person

            I fear NZ’s going to get a lot worse before it gets any better

            But on the positive side, at least a third of New Zealanders do know what’s right, and we’ve got to keep on stepping up – tomorrow’s another day

            Cunliffe will eventually get the chance to lead NZ out of this mess and I’m sure will be a very good PM

  6. tc 6

    The stupid, it hurts…..FFS.

  7. RedBaronCV 7

    And I have never seen the Greens ask for a candidtae vote in Ohariu.

    • weka 7.1

      Doesn’t matter. Too many people don’t understand MMP and tactical voting, so the GP having a candidate there as a way of getting the party vote is always going to get some electorate votes as well. There will also be GP voters who don’t pay any attention to the election campaign and just give the GP two ticks. The only way for the GP to avoid this is to either not stand in taht seat, or to actively tell people to not vote for their candidate. I’m guessing that the GP are well aware of these issues, and decided that the risk was worth it to increase their party vote.

      • Lisa Woodley 7.1.1

        I can confirm that the GP candidate was actively telling people that he only wished for the party vote. This was emphasised through newspaper articles and candidate meetings. So it wasn’t through lack of trying 🙂

  8. Graeme 8

    Apathy was the winner on the day in Ohariu………an astonishingly low turnout for Ohariu was the most defining feature of tonight’s election result.
    The combined votes of national candidate and Peter Dunne combined had been dropping steadily (1000 voted each election) for 3 elections, to a combined total of 21000 in 2011. – but this year it plummeted by a further 3500 votes (before specials are counted), and Peter Dunne still won. Such a drop in the “right” vote is astonishing.
    All credit to Nationals policy of running an “invisible” candidate. Brett Hudsons ability to poll 1500 votes less than Katrina Shanks did in 2011 was undoubtedly the reason Peter Dunne retained his seat. With a phenomenally high list ranking for a relative newcomer, Brett was very well rewarded for keeping quiet and seeking a “Party vote only” for National.
    There is no point in criticising the 2200 simpletons who failed to recognise their vote for Tane Woodlet would deny Ginny & the left the Ohariu seat – it has allways been thus. On the plus side, there were 3000 others who did split their green vote (“correctly”), in favour of Ginny Anderson: Thats all you can expect from people who are not politically engaged. Unless someone takes the time to knock on 20000 doors and explain personally to each one of those 2200 why they are so deluded, that wont change.
    But the fact that labour still lost is due in no small part to the weather: That really is the only explaination. In the last three elections, the total electorate votes cast in Ohariu has been between tightly clustered within 400 votes, with a minimum of 37585 (in 2005) and 37 996 (in 2011) . The Turnout (before special votes) for 2014 is about 33 500. Notwithstanding specials, this is more than a four thousand vote slump on the turnout of the last four years, an unprecedented drop in turnout……
    With a very creditable effort cutting Peter Dunnes majority to under 1000 votes, Ginny Anderson has proven herself as a most “winnable” Labour candidate for Ohariu, coming from being utterly unknown to anyone in the electorate just four months agob (!!!!!). Anyone seeing her at a town hall meeting could see she has it all over Peter Dunne, who seems more out of touch every term….
    Where does the blame lie for labour loosing the most winnable seat (for them) in the country, and potentially one of the most important? Not at the feet of the Labour machine on the ground (phenomenal, as ever), but from Labour head Office, for not investing more effort in backing a great candidate in a critical seat MUCH more than they did.
    Ginny was busy with more important things earlier in 2014, (like giving birth!). But in an ideal world, she would have declared her candidacy in January and spent the next 6 month pressing the flesh with regular appearances from Cunliffe & other Labour luminaries on the streets & in the community halls of Ohariu, (just 10 minutes drive from the Beehive, but sadly too far for some of those Old labour hands to make the effort…).
    Had labour committed more resources, earlier, to Ohariu, at least one thousand more potential labour voters would easily have gone out into the rain today, and Peter Dunnes support for a national led Government would be consigned to the history books – and Ohariu would have a bight, exciting and capable young MP to kick Wellington’s staid old labour MP ranks out of their malaise….
    As an “MP in waiting for Ohariu” the worst thing Labour could do now is switch horses: If they bring in Justin Lester, Ginny will loose the chance to build her profile, and the “apparent” advantage the right have could evaporate if Peter Dunne resigns, or if national either fail to list a candidate (either strategy would still see national or Dunne win next time, regardless of the candidate).

    • weka 8.1

      If the GP had chosen to not stand in Ōhāriu, Dunne would be gone and Anderson would be in. Pretty simple. They made this choice with other electorates.

      • karol 8.1.1

        Are you sure it was a choice with other electorates, and not just a case of not having the person or resources to run candidates in some electorates?

        • weka 8.1.1.1

          probably both, but it seems likely to me that the TTT one was intentional. But even if I’m wrong about that, the GP still need to rethink this strategy of putting up candidates in marginal seats as a way of increasing their party vote. It could have been worse this time (it could have cost us the election), but ousting Dunne would have been a very good thing for the left.

          Someone commented on twitter last night that the left still want everyone to play the game with integrity and they’re getting screwed because of it (my paraphrasing). Am not suggesting we go dirty politics, but we need to rethink this idea of working MMP as we want it instead of as it is now vis a vis the rules.

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    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    1 week ago
  • Union solidarity with Ihumatao land occupation
    by Daphna Whitmore Every Sunday for the past two months unionists from First Union, with supporters from other unions, have set out to the Ihumatao land protest, put up gazebos and gas barbeques, and cooked food for a few hundred locals and supporters who have come from across the country. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong kind of trees?
    Newsroom today has an excellent, in-depth article on pine trees as carbon sinks. The TL;DR is that pine is really good at soaking up carbon, but people prefer far-less efficient native forests instead. Which is understandable, but there's two problems: firstly, we've pissed about so long on this problem that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • No freedom of speech in Turkey
    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Tadhg Stopford: Why I’m standing for the ADHB
    Hi there, just call me Tim.We face tough problems, and I’d like to help, because there are solutions.An Auckand District Health Board member has nominated me for as a candidate for the ADHB, because her MS-related pain and fatigue is reduced with hemp products from Rotorua.  Nothing else helped her. If I ...
    1 week ago
  • Good little vassals
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has published their report on whether the SIS and GCSB had any complicity in American torture. And its damning. The pull quote is this:The Inquiry found both agencies, but to a much greater degree, the NZSIS, received many intelligence reports obtained from detainees who, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Who Shall We Turn To When God, And Uncle Sam, Cease To Defend New Zealand?
    Bewhiskered Cassandra? Professor Hugh White’s chilling suggestion, advanced to select collections of academic, military and diplomatic Kiwi experts over the course of the past week, is that the assumptions upon which Australia and New Zealand have built their foreign affairs and defence policies for practically their entire histories – are ...
    1 week ago
  • The Politics of Opposition
    For most of the time I was a British MP, my party was out of government – these were the Thatcher years, when it was hard for anyone else to get a look-in. As a front-bencher and shadow minister, I became familiar with the strategies required in a parliamentary democracy ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • More expert comments on the Canadian fluoride-IQ paper
    The Green et al (2019) fluoride/IQ is certainly controversial – as would be expected from its subject (see If at first you don’t succeed . . . statistical manipulation might help and Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear). Anti-fluoride campaigners have been actively promoting it ...
    1 week ago
  • The return to guerrilla war in Colombia
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh On August 29th a video in which veteran FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) commander Iván Márquez announced that they had taken up arms again was released. There was no delay in the reaction to it, from longtime Liberal Party figure and former president Uribe, for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Air New Zealand identifies this enormous plot of unused land as possible second airport site
    Air New Zealand couldn’t believe its luck that this seemingly ideal piece of real estate had so far gone entirely unnoticed. Air New Zealand’s search for a site to build a second Auckland Airport may have made a breakthrough this afternoon, after employees scanning Google satellite imagery spotted a huge, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Redline on the Labour Party
    No-one on the anti-capitalist left in this country today puts forward a case that Labour is on the side of the working class.  There are certainly people who call themselves ‘socialist’ who do, but they are essentially liberals with vested interests in Labourism – often for career reasons. Nevertheless, there ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s failure
    When National was in government and fucking over the poor for the benefit of the rich, foodbanks were a growth industry. And now Labour is in charge, nothing has changed: A huge demand for emergency food parcels means the Auckland City Mission is struggling to prepare for the impending arrival ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Ardern attempts to vaccinate Clarke Gayford live on television to prove that it’s safe
    Gayford, pictured here on The Project, before things got wildly out of control. A bold public relations move by the Government to encourage parents to vaccinate their children has gone horribly wrong. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appeared on tonight’s episode of Three’s The Project, where the plan was for her ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Has Mr. Whippy gone too far by parking on our front lawns?
    Mr. Whippy’s business model has driven it down a dark road of intimidation. Residents in major centres around the country are becoming disgruntled by the increasingly aggressive actions of purported ice cream company Mr. Whippy, who have taken to parking on people’s front lawns and doorsteps in a desperate attempt ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Cleaning up the water
    Today the government released its Action Plan for Healthy Waterways, aimed at cleaning up our lakes and rivers. Its actually quite good. There will be protection for wetlands, better standards for swimming spots, a requirement for continuous improvement, and better standards for wastewater and stormwater. But most importantly, there's a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Fronting up
    Today I appeared before the Environment Committee to give an oral submission on the Zero Carbon Bill. Over 1,500 people have asked to appear in person, so they've divided into subcommittees and are off touring the country, giving people a five minute slot each. The other submitters were a mixed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear
    Anti-fluoride activists have some wealthy backers – they are erecting billboards misrepresenting the Canadian study on many New Zealand cities – and local authorities are ordering their removal because of their scaremongering. Many New Zealanders ...
    2 weeks ago

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