Should I stay or should I go?

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, June 24th, 2016 - 24 comments
Categories: Europe, International, uk politics - Tags: , ,

It’s the most important binding referendum about Europe in many years. Whether Britain stays in the European Union or goes, the campaign has been so divisive, so cutting, that it will change its politics and politics within the EU for a very long time to come.

Not all international breakups are bad, even on this scale. The fall of the Soviet bloc was in some senses a moment of great liberation. But it was a mess. Yugoslavia, ouch. What did freedom mean afterwards?

For the scale of it locally, it would be like Canterbury voting to leave us. A perpetual earthquake upon our society and our economy.

Will David Cameron be able to stay on as Prime Minister? Pretty hard to preside over and execute a policy he campaigned against so hard for, if it’s successful. And Corbyn has been with him al the way.

It will put a big question mark over binding referenda for many years.

If they stay, the immigration debate will have the countries most affected by immigration also raging about border intake. Hungary. Poland. Austria. Greece. France. Germany. The voices will align within Europe, and they will rise hard.

If they go, expect short term tumult on all financial markets as they digest the news. Then watch the patterns play out in the stagnant pool of the developed-world economy.

Hold on, this is big.

24 comments on “Should I stay or should I go?”

  1. miravox 1

    The referendum is not legally binding according to this report
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-legally-binding-brexit-lisbon-cameron-sovereign-parliament

    It would be a very brave/stupid Cameron to disregard the result but.

    I agree it’s a very big deal if brexit wins, but I reckon everyone will just have a big sigh of relief and will carry on with business as usual if remain wins.

    I doubt there will be excessive pressure on Britain from the EU with regard to immigration if remain wins. However it would be mightly interesting to see what France would do with the UK pseudo-border in Calais if leave wins.

  2. Tory 2

    “A perpetual earthquake upon our society and economy”. Yet most on this site were advocating Scotland become independent from the UK?
    I hope they leave, it’s doing wonders for my overseas foreign investments and currency accounts.

    • Barfly 2.1

      hmmm…and when you grow up let me guess…you would like to be a “vulture capitalist”

    • Bill 2.2

      The two questions are nothing at all like one another: veritable worlds apart.

      Not that I’d expect you to have understanding on that front. And not that I can be bothered using this thread to enlighten the fathomless darkness that scrapes around the insides of your cranium pretending to be cognisance .

  3. ianmac 3

    “1.10pm: Analysis is showing early numbers are in favour of a Leave result. The BBC reported a senior Labour figure has said it appears Leave will win, and the Leave side was the first to break through the one-million vote mark, with Remain not far behind.”

    • Infused 3.1

      It will be close. Don’t *think* they will win. Never know. Hope they do.

      • Lanthanide 3.1.1

        It’s highly likely to be Leave at this point.

        View at Medium.com

        • Anne 3.1.1.1

          So it would seem and you know what:

          I was a fence sitter throughout this debate for the simple reason I didn’t know enough to take a particular side. But I’m not sorry if Leave wins because I think this is yet another manifestation of the building worldwide resentment and anger at the destruction of societies caused by 30+ years of neo-liberalism.

          The establishments of the western world ignore it at their peril.

          • Lanthanide 3.1.1.1.1

            Yeah, but it was all the right-wing supporters of neo-liberalism that wanted to leave the generally socialist EU.

            • Anne 3.1.1.1.1.1

              Yes it’s true ( I prefer to call them the red-necks) but they only represent the extreme end of the Leave brigade. In the middle (the majority I’m sure) you have the ordinary Brits who are fed up with the never-ending struggle just to survive, while their wealthy counter-parts grow richer and richer. And when something like this referendum comes along they use it to express their bitterness.

              It would seem to me to be better that it happens now while there is still time to re-dress the balance rather than a few years down the track when it will be too late?

              • b waghorn

                They are throwing the baby out with the bath water by leaving , better to stay and fix the problems than to crawl into a xenophobic shell.

                • Anne

                  ….better to stay and fix the problems than to crawl into a xenophobic shell.

                  Problem is b waghorn it wasn’t happening and the Brits decided they had had enough. Simple as that really. If I was a Brit (my parents were) I think I would have voted to remain, but it doesn’t stop me understanding why 52% of Britain felt differently. I don’t believe all 52% voted to leave on xenophobic grounds.

                  • Bill

                    No-one likes the Vogons. Thing is – a ‘Little Englander’ alternative!?

                    Thank (insert deity or expletive of choice) I moved far, far away.

                    • weka

                      I wouldn’t get too complacent. Expect wealthy English immigration to NZ to increase over the next few years 😈

                      (someone tweeted how they’d move to NZ because it was less racist and had ski resorts 🙄 )

                • weka

                  “They are throwing the baby out with the bath water by leaving , better to stay and fix the problems than to crawl into a xenophobic shell.”

                  Unless staying actively prevented the problems from being solved.

                  • Anne

                    Unless staying actively prevented the problems from being solved.
                    Which is the way I suspect most of those 52% saw it and therefore they voted to leave…

            • Peter Swift 3.1.1.1.1.2

              “Yeah, but it was all the right-wing supporters of neo-liberalism that wanted to leave the generally socialist EU.”

              Whilst it may once have been true of all right-wing supporters of neo-liberalism, looking at the poll data, that’s not really carried through in the results now.

              Bolsover for example, hardly the historical domain of staunch neo libs, electing the ultra left mp Dennis Skinner since 1970, who won his seat in 2015 with 51% share of the vote, today voted 70.8% to leave the EU.

        • Infused 3.1.1.2

          interesting. hadn’t followed it for a few hours.

  4. Ad 4

    The global currency and stockmarkets are reacting as I predicted some weeks ago.
    Maybe most won’t care. I suspect they will once their mortgage rates rise on the spike.

    The Western world is on for the most almighty anti-immigration debate we have seen in decades.

    Turnbull and Trump will take this Leave result as a major vindication for their immigration policies. As will most of Europe, including Austria, Hungary, Romania, Greece, France, Sweden, Denmark:

    this could signal a major reversal for full global labour mobility.

    • Infused 4.1

      Oh well. All good things are hard.

      This will be good for the UK in the long run. Not so much for everyone else.

      • Ad 4.1.1

        Even if it advantages the UK – which is for the future to decide – no one in the observing world believes it will advantage them. It is an act of astonishing national selfishness.

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