Steven Joyce strikes out

Written By: - Date published: 11:45 am, July 19th, 2011 - 21 comments
Categories: capital gains, david cunliffe, election 2011, privatisation, Steven Joyce - Tags:

Associate Finance Minister Steven Joyce has dealt his government’s economic credibility a serious blow by attacking Labour’s costings of its fiscal plan and getting his own numbers wrong. David Cunliffe looks to be enjoying himself as he rips Joyce apart on Red Alert, in the Herald, and in the Dom. So much for Joyce’s dreams of succeeding English as Finance Minister.

From Cunliffe’s blog post:

First, Mr Joyce alleged that our tax plan had not replaced the capital value of the non-sale of SOEs: “You see Labour done a big lie, and said it is a choice of asset sales or their tax package. But they have not calculated for any increased borrowing through no sales”.

I love that Cunliffe has quoted from Kiwiblog and just attributed it to the real author, Joyce.

Our numbers do incorporate the asset sales revenue because it’s in National’s net debt track and our net debt track is based on theirs. Not getting that revenue is essentially the sole reason why our net debt track is above National’s in the first few years.

That graph from BR’s guest post yesterday shows the two parties’ net debt tracks.

Sure enough, Labour’s is about 1% of GDP higher than National’s at first from not getting in the money from asset sales but in the long-run, it’s below National’s because of the dividends and CGT.

Second Mr Joyce tried the line that we had not modelled in the cost of interest on debt. Wrong again. Interest costs are fully included.

Dear, oh, dear. Hope you didn’t run Mediaworks’ books yourself, Steven.

Third, he argued we would achieve “$0″ on our tax avoidance crackdown. Wrong again: IRD says there is $3.5 bn in collectable tax debt (of $5.5 bn total); and over $300m p.a. in avoidance through trust structures; as well as -$500m on the $200 bn invested in property. Bill English says there is $5 back for every extra $1 in IRD tax collection. IRD says 30:1. It all makes our provision that rises over 5 years up to $300m look pretty modest.

Three strikes and your credibility is out, Steven.

Finally, there’s this on Stuff:

Mr Cunliffe singled out National’s claim about the cost of a tax-free threshold for income up to $5000, which would give every taxpayer $525 extra a year.

Mr Joyce had claimed the policy would cost $2.2 billion more than Labour had budgeted over 12 years.

But Mr Cunliffe said National had used the wrong Treasury model, which took into account wage growth and the impact of taxpayers moving into higher tax brackets.

Neither affected the cost of a tax-free zone, which rose only as the population of taxpayers increased – something accounted for by Labour.

For National to be right, there would need to be more than a million extra taxpayers by 2024.

Christ. You know, when your tech staff forget to click a box on your youtube video to prevent related links coming up, that’s a little embarrassing. When your Associate Finance Minister is clueless about finance, that’s a disaster. Time for English to start looking for someone who is up to the job, methinks.

Hey, just a thought. When are we going to see National’s numbers on their economic policy? And, no, the Budget isn’t good enough because they haven’t counted the loss of dividends from asset sales. I hope National will be putting out real figures soon, and I hope they don’t get Steven Joyce to do the calculations.

21 comments on “Steven Joyce strikes out”

  1. r0b 1

    2 hours later, and the Nats have turned out in force to defend their figures…

  2. mapped out 2

    Doesn’t really matter though does it?
    Does not appear that the great unwashed is listening
    Turkeys voting for xmas eh?
    Too late to replace Goff
    Kiss goodbye to assets {Kiwibank next term methinks}
    Oh well, He is such a lovely man that Mr Key
    Oh well at least Murdoch is going down, something to smile about


    • Craig Glen Eden 2.1

      At least the reporters are starting to realize that the Nats have no plan and that they are constantly spinning bullshit. Most economists I also think have come to that conclusion. Four months is a long time in Politics and Public life case in point the cellphone hacking mess, go back 3 or 4 weeks ago and everything seemed sweet for the Murdochs.

      The more the likes of Joyce, English and Key has to front the better. Keep the faith peps.

      • Carol 2.1.1

        Yeah, but we have the voters of Epsom to contend with. The way NAct are rorting that little MMP loophole, against the spirit of democracy, RNZ this evening reckons Banks could bring in about 5 ACT seats on his coat tail.

        • Jasper

          And Dons little scheme that he’ll be rorting in Dipton territory too. “Get a Don with a Bill!” “Get a Bill, and a Don!” “Party Vote The Don, Electorate the Bill”

          It’s enough to make you wonder why the Left shouldn’t just say “Principles be damned” and stitch up a deal with the Greens in marginal seat to run a split vote campaign which may be more effective than two ticks.

        • Georgecom

          Don was running around a few weeks ago stating he expected 10 to 15 seats.

          Unsure if he meant at the ACT national conference?

  3. Windy.City.Struggler 3

    ‘mapped out’: Do I detect premature electoral celebration ?

    I could mention a few other disorders ….

  4. mapped out 4

    Do I detect premature electoral celebration ?

    No quite the opposite
    Fuck everyone. off to get myself an allotment, bicycle and gun

    • AAMC 4.1

      “Fuck everyone. off to get myself an allotment, bicycle and gun”

      You read my mind….

  5. Ianupnorth 5

    I would join you, but if Key does get back in I’ll wave to you from the plane as i head off elsewhere

    • Windy.City.Struggler 5.1

      Well, if the Australian polls mean anything, it could Prime Minister Abbot’s Catholic
      fundamentalism entrenched in Canberra for the next few years. John Key might start looking relatively good in comparison.

      It’s two years until the next Australian Federal election.

      • Windy.City.Struggler 5.1.1

        .. assuming there is no sudden change of heart by the 2 or so independents by which they hold a majority.

      • prism 5.1.2

        Yeah Gillard said read my lips there’ll be no carbon tax. A rush of blood to the head. And Australians don’t seem to see that it’s necessary and are encouraging that Abbott who sounds a stupid dork in the John Howard tradition.

        Oz shouldn’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. Punish Gillard some other way but don’t throw her out in a hissy fit because she didn’t keep her word about the carbon tax. I say get it in place while one of your main parties is stoked ready to do it. It’s like going to the doctor at an early stage when a cancer is suspected, leave it too late and the suffering is unpleasant and death may be the result. If the legislation is reviewed two years later then action to improve on fairness and encouraging innovation can be carried out.

        • bbfloyd

          tont abbott is australia’s answer to bill english… yes,,, he is that scary…..

  6. Tangled up in blue 6

    Cunliffe for PM.

  7. I think it has something to do with Nat’s selection of Goldsmith for Epsom.  All the rwnjs are running around trying to say it is democratic and a representation of local democracy to select a f*(&wit for what should be the safest National seat in the country.

    My mad uncle would be a better candidate! 

  8. tc 8

    This whole unfolding saga of the shonkiest budget in living memory, more dodgy numbers and now jackboot Joyce climbing in with his media poodles in tow is simply depressing.

    Across the ditch the media alone would’ve torn the govt a new one whilst here they’re too busy with penguins and following sideshow on his latest photo opp tour…..hope they all sleep well at night knowing they’re not discharging their responsibilities but taking a pay cheque instead.

    Labour need to roll the sleeves up and start some provocative rhetoric the MSM can’t screw up….our grandkids deserve better than the future this bunch of self serving sell outs will deliver.

  9. gnomic 9

    Let’s cut the guy some slack – it can’t be easy being the minister of everything. Mere mortals might struggle with just a single portfolio.

    Obviously it would be completely wrong to think that this is not an intellectual titan but just a slightly sleazy hack who has one attribute in common with his equally ineffectual leader – no new ideas. Oh, come to think of it, he’s also fully vested, like the smiley wavey one, that may explain their nonchalance.

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