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Stick a Fork in Him, He’s Dunne

Written By: - Date published: 6:57 pm, June 1st, 2016 - 140 comments
Categories: class war, election 2017, peter dunne, Politics, uncategorized, useless, vote smart - Tags: , , ,

The surprise announcement of a working arrangement between Labour and the Greens has major implications for the National Party’s parliamentary lapdogs.

The biggest loser is obviously Peter Dunne who is going to be an ex MP if the Green Party don’t stand a candidate in Ohariu. The Hairdo only won by 700 votes, garnering 13,569 votes in the conservative electorate to Labour candidate Virginia Anderson’s 12,859.  2,764 votes were wasted on the Green Party’s Tane Woodley.

National, who ran a non-campaign in the seat, but still picked up 6000 votes, will have a choice to make. Either they don’t run a candidate themselves or they consign Dunne to the dunny.

It’s great to be 18 months out from the election knowing that National are going to be forced to respond to a clever opposition tactic by either abandoning their long held commitment to standing in every electorate or by letting long time reliable sycophant Peter Dunne twist in the wind.

Dunne’s history is one of disloyalty and self serving behaviour. How ironic that he will end his parliamentary being stabbed in the back by the party he has so supinely supported. The funniest part of the story is that Dunne doesn’t even seem to realise he’s a dead man walking. Asked to respond to Mike William’s correct assessment that he was a goneburger, Dunne gave one of his most confused answers ever:

“We’re still 18 months out from the election. I’m not even going to dignify that with a response, and you can quote me saying that.”

Er, a quote is a response, Peter. Must try harder in your last few months, mate.

So how rattled is National? I reckon they’re shitting bricks myself. Not just because they are going to lose the ever reliable doormat Dunne, but because there’s every chance the Maori party will cease to be as well.

That’s not because of the Greens/Labour pact, but because interwebs/mana are no longer a credible party. Annette Sykes may well stand again in Wairiki, but she won’t get 5000 votes this time around and Te Ururoa  Flavell’s majority will suffer as a result.

No Flavell, no maori Tories.

It just gets better and better, doesn’t it?

A word on electorates. They don’t affect the overall parliamentary count. The party vote ultimately decides who governs. But in a time of increasing poverty, homelessness and dim futures, an electorate MP who gives a shit can be the difference between despair and dignity.

When the Greens and Labour sit down in the coming months to analyse where tactical voting will work best, I hope they decide that Auckland Central, Christchurch Central,  Maungakiekie and Hutt South are must win seats. Not because they are going to change the overall result, but because their constituents really, really need their MP’s to be in their corner for them.

The sad fact is that the local electorate office is often the last roll of the dice for kiwi battlers. The Red/Green alliance offers a chance to improve lives both nationally and locally.

Let’s win the next election, people. And lets win as many electorates as we can, too.

 

 

140 comments on “Stick a Fork in Him, He’s Dunne”

  1. DoublePlusGood 1

    What’s your basis for assuming that Annette Sykes isn’t going to get 5000+ votes in Waiariki?

    • They’re gone, D+G. Doing that deal with Kim Dotcom ended them as an effective electoral party. Under MMP, only NZ First have returned to parliament after being turfed out and there’s no sign at all of any sort of resurgence for mana. Sykes may well stand, but there isn’t much reason to vote for her and I think the direct battle between Labour and Maori party for the seat will be the focus of local voters’ attention.

      The really sad thing would be if she stood and helped Flavell get elected. A vote for mana in that electorate might well be a vote for the return of a National government.

      • Chooky 1.1.1

        no Labour and Davis ensured Hone lost TTT with the help of Lusk (coincidentally one would hope)

        http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/mediawatch/audio/201779410/dirty-politics-players-back-in-the-frame

        …nothing to do with Kim Dotcom….that is a common Labour Party hierarchy myth and doesnt fool anyone

        … a framing by jonkey nactional and the Hollywood corporates did Dotcom in…and shame on some in the Labour Party for supporting it

        • dukeofurl 1.1.1.1

          Please Hone lost because he only cared about far North, not the area from Auckland to Whangarei where most ofo seats voters are.

          The place to do a deal that would have worked even better ( thats if deals werent labours policy at the time) was Waiariki where the labour vote was 3rd. Getting Sykes in would have kept Hone as a list MP ( where he wanted to be) and turfed out MP with its two support votes for national.
          Its all hindsight of course.

        • leftie 1.1.1.2

          No Chooky, you are wrong, Hone did it to himself, and it had a lot to do with Dotcom, even he recognized that he was politically toxic.

      • DoublePlusGood 1.1.2

        You could well have said that of voting for Labour in Waiariki in the last two elections though, given an Annette Sykes win would have been +1 seat on the left (plus a list MP, in the last one). Her supporters haven’t necessarily vanished off to some other party, so she could well still grab a hefty swag of votes.

      • Lanthanide 1.1.3

        “A vote for mana in that electorate might well be a vote for the return of a National government.”

        I think that’s a bit extreme, given that the Maori Party vote against National the majority of the time in Parliament, it’s only because of their C&S agreement, which tosses a few baubles the way of Whanau Ora, that they support National at all.

        If you’re seriously suggesting that if Maori Party are the kingmakers, they’ll choose to go with National instead of Labour/Greens + NZ First, well, I don’t know what to tell you.

        It’s also pretty difficult to come up with any sort of seating result where the Maori Party are truly the kingmakers, since NZFirst will always have more seats than them, and Act + UF aren’t enough to make up the difference.

        • Hanswurst 1.1.3.1

          Yup. This bashing of both Mana and the Maori Party by Labour stalwarts really should stop. It’s petty and it helps no-one.

          • Colonial Viper 1.1.3.1.1

            Labour don’t really understand MMP and the need to cultivate political partners.

            • Nessalt 1.1.3.1.1.1

              But why? they understood it so well in the clark government? they understood that you’ve got to be such a strong party that you don’t need political partners as much as they need you. She built a labour party that was geared to being that strong. then 4 men came along in succession and fucked it all up.

            • e-clectic 1.1.3.1.1.2

              Partners? In the case of ACT and UF I’d describe them as National adjunct parties – substantially the same but used as a device in MMP to finagle two more seats above National’s party vote percentage.
              Remember, at last election Nat/ACT/Maori/UF got total 49.27% party vote – and this turned into 64 seats in the House (52.9%) due to MMP rules. The loopholes of MMP have to be closed or change to a different system.

              • leftie

                That’s why National refused, point blank, to get rid of coat tailing, wasn’t it?

                • Mosa

                  They ignored the referendum vote to retain MMP with changes including coat tailing ,Collins refused to act on the referendum changes that were voted for and recommended,they never intended to abide by the result, TOTAL ARROGANCE!

                • e-clectic

                  leftie – this scam is subtly different from coat-tailing. Removing coat-tailing wouldn’t fix the Epsom/Ohariu scam.
                  Coat-tailing is about getting to the threshold for party votes to count by getting an electorate seat.
                  This scam is about getting an electorate seat without using up the party percentage. You add that “electorate seat” from your adjunct party on top of your party percentage allocation.
                  To prevent it requires is a further provision in MMP to require a minimum party percentage vote as a threshold for electorate seats, say, 0.8% of the party vote (i.e. 1/120 – the ratio of votes per seat).
                  If they won’t remove coat-tailing and lower threshold to 4%, what chance of them closing this loophole?

                  Just as a footnote – for people wondering if Labour pulled the same scam with Jim Anderton, they didn’t. His party always polled over 0.8% in the party vote.

            • leftie 1.1.3.1.1.3

              rofl I think Labour just proved you wrong Colonial Viper.

    • Chooky 1.2

      +100 DoublePlusGood …good question…Go Annette Sykes!…She is worth almost all of Labour caucus put together…

  2. mauī 2

    Makes sense to me, if you want to win the election it comes down to basic maths. I have a bad feeling about Ohariu though (where many comfortably well off kiwis live), I think the Nat votes could easily slide across to Dunne keeping him in there. But yes a couple of seats for the left using this method would be a god send and entirely possible.

    • Iceberg 2.1

      “if you want to win the election it comes down to basic maths”

      The basic maths is that National got over 50% of the party vote in Ohariu.

      • mauī 2.1.1

        That’s to be expected with mostly affluent suburbs in it like Khandallah, Korokoro, Ngaio, Maungaraki. From wiki:

        and the second highest number (in NZ) of families earning between $70,000 and $100,000 per year.

        Lucky they don’t represent the whole of NZ.

        • Iceberg 2.1.1.1

          They seem to based on the percentage

        • Hayden 2.1.1.2

          Korokoro and Maungaraki are not in Ohariu, they are Hutt South.

          • mauī 2.1.1.2.1

            Ok, think you’re right, changed for 2014. There is still lots of info out there showing they’re still part of Ohariu, confusing.

        • Rosie 2.1.1.3

          Hi maui. Yes we do have affluent suburbs here in Ohariu, such as Khandallah, Wadestown and even Ngaio (it was once a state housing burb in the 40’s but has been gentrified) but there is a lot of poverty here too.

          Newlands has a soup kitchen and there are two charities that organise food parcels, clothing and appliances for the impoverished. The Johnsonville mall is like a ghost town with shutters down over shops that have gone out of business, businesses that have been there for decades. The WINZ centre is about the busiest place in town.

          It’s an electorate of contradictions but ultimately there is a strong streak of conservatism – eg, Ohariu was among one of the electorates with the highest number of votes to change the flag and one of the lowest number of votes for the keep our assets referendum. In fact there’s still a number of houses flying the Kyle Lockwood flag.

          Like TRP says, Ginny Andersen was only 700 votes behind Dunne in 2014. And Ginny was a first time campaigner. If the Greens don’t stand a candidate in 2017 I think we can pull off a win. Ginny is standing again I think and would be a real asset to the people of Ohariu. She could really shake up this town.

      • Lanthanide 2.1.2

        Newsflash: Labour doesn’t have to win Ohariu in order for Dunne to lose his seat.

        I saw it written somewhere, perhaps Graeme Edgelar, that each rotten-borough electorate seat is worth, on average, 0.5 seats for National. With Act + Dunne together that’s a 1 seat advantage that they have over the opposition.

        So replacing Dunne with a National electorate MP reduces their voting power by 0.5 seats on average.

        Still not as good as a left-wing candidate winning it, but better than Dunne stinking up the place.

        • Iceberg 2.1.2.1

          Newsflash: writing posts about how to win electorate seats is, well, nonsensical.

          • e-clectic 2.1.2.1.1

            Iceberg: winning electorate seats is not nonsensical if you can do it without it costing you party votes, as National is doing in Epsom & Ohariu.

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.2.2

          Good point Lanth

      • e-clectic 2.1.3

        The significant point of what happened in Ohariu is this.

        In the Party Vote, United Future got 273 votes and National 18,810.

        National got an extra seat for the cost of 273 Party Votes allowing the 18,810 to be counted into their overall Party Vote percentage – that’s a complete rort.

        You can check the numbers here – http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/electorate-36.html

        • The Lone Haranguer 2.1.3.1

          Actually, thats smart voting, and its only a rort when its the other guys doing it.

          • e-clectic 2.1.3.1.1

            Bullshit – it’s a rort anyway you look at it. Effectively, Ohariu and Epsom Nat voters get two party votes because their electorate vote turns into a seat in the house. That’s not democratic – everyone else only gets one party vote. On the principle of one person one vote, this rort contravenes that. It is a loophole in MMP that needs fixing.

  3. Cricklewood 3

    Hypothetically speaking if the labour vote stays similar to what it was last election but they win more electorate seats like ohariu and auck central is there a chance that there will be no labour list mps?

    Would the Nats if push comes to shove tank a few electorates to causes issues and uncertainty if say Andrew Little was a list only candidate or will he stand in a safe seat?

    • I understand all Labour MP’s are being asked to stand in an electorate. I also understand there are a couple of long servers currently considering their options, which may open up a winnable seat for Little and maybe for someone entirely new. The party’s change process continues unabated!

      • Cricklewood 3.1.1

        I hope that’s the case. I can see Gower stirring up a storm if Andrew is list only or standing in New Plymouth again and the polls are similar to they are now. The lead in will all about the math of party polling versus likely electorate seats and wether or not he would get into parliament. Be a right mess and would likely become a self fulfilling prophecy…

        • The Lone Haranguer 3.1.1.1

          Surely Labour will gift Little a safe electorate seat for the 2017 election. Is Annette King doing another 3 years?

      • Michael 3.1.2

        Not that I can see. Labour will go into the 2017 election with the same clapped out caucus it has now. The Greens may do a bit better on Party Vote than tey did last time, although they’ll have to be careful not to let Labour’s mud stick to them (like systematically cocking up benefit payments right through its last term of office). Winston should do very well, as voters who don’t like the Nats turn to him. People who don’t like Labour (and there are lot of them) will stay home.

      • Lanthanide 3.1.3

        Would be kind of amusing if Labour caused an overhang from winning too many electorates.

        • dukeofurl 3.1.3.1

          Thats my thought too. They would have to get another 10 or so seats so may be a hard hurdle to cross
          In 2012 they 34 seats up all with 27.5% of PV and 32 seats with 25% this time round.
          In 2008 they got 43 seats with 34%

  4. Ad 4

    I’ve gotten all encouraged all of a sudden and re-joined Labour.

    • Gavin 4.1

      I think that’s the clever thing about this MOU. We’ve all got a lot more hope for the next election. Good points about the electorates. Generally the party vote and the electorate vote are close to each other in numbers. Win the electorate – you’d generally help the party vote too.

    • Enough is Enough 4.2

      I will only be rejoining Labour when they make a firm commitment to repeal the Rogernomic reforms and denounce Neo Liberalism,

      • leftie 4.2.1

        Meanwhile Enough, you will just bleat from the sidelines instead. Neoliberalism has been a dominating force around the world since the 70s, it takes time to change things. Would it be presumptuous to ask who you will vote for? as I don’t see other parties specifically saying they will “repeal the Rogernomic reforms of decades ago and denounce Neo Liberalism” either. What about repealing John key’s treasononmics and National’s self serving neoliberlaism, I hear all opposition parties including Labour wanting to right those wrongs of the last 8 years.

        • Enough is Enough 4.2.1.1

          I an not on the side-lines. I am a member of the Green Party. You need to be engaged to change anything.

          Yes if it was a 2 horse race I would certainly give my support to Labour, but in reality Labour is just a softer shade of National.

          You are kidding yourself if you think the structural inequalities in our society will change under a Labour government.

    • leftie 4.3

      Yay… good for you Ad!!!

  5. Colonial Viper 5

    I don’t get the title of this post. Dunne isn’t “done.”

    As mentioned, National will simply pull their candidate and the majority of those 6,000 blue votes are going to Dunne.

    If the Greens pull their candidate and give Labour a clear run, this scenario is guaranteed.

    Dunne will greatly increase his majority on 2014.

    And there will be no shame or tension in National doing this because Labour and Greens have, belatedly, given this electoral tactic their blessing.

    • Muttonbird 5.1

      The thing about you fence sitters is you get splitters up your ass.

      • Colonial Viper 5.1.1

        Huh? I’m not a fence sitter – I’m definitely not voting Labour 2017.

        • Paul 5.1.1.1

          You voting ACT?

          • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1.1

            Do you even read my comments?

            • te reo putake 5.1.1.1.1.1

              I read your comments, CV and that’s my conclusion too. You’re not left wing, by your own admission. That doesn’t leave much alternative position but right. And given the thin line between love and hate, your bourgeois lifestyle and your misanthrope, ACT is clearly your next stop. And why not? It’s an honest choice.

              • Colonial Viper

                Hey TRP, two dimensional linear thinking like yours is destined for the dustbin. And to be explicit, I have very little politically in common with “left wing” parties like the Greens and like NZ Labour.

                • C’mon, no backtracking now! The simple fact is that you are left wing or you are not. If you’re not, you are part of the problem. Clearly, you don’t really know exactly what you are, politically, CV. You can’t articulate any vision or coherent philosophy. All you’ve got is mithering about what you perceive to be the failings of others.

                  You write like someone who despises the working class, while denying class exists, rather like a good spawn of Thatcher would. You also appear to fit into the demographic that ACT pitch at and if you dropped the ‘deep state’ drivel, got a suit jacket and a koru club card, you could be standing for ACT in a matter of months.

                  What’s stopping you?

                  • Colonial Viper

                    Meh, so many words to prove that your politics are old and obsolete. And your careless ranting is dustbin material.

                    • Any time you want to let us know the alternative, you have this forum at your disposal. I won’t hold my breath.

                      Anyhoo, this post is about the soon to be ex MP, Peter Dunne. How about we address that instead?

                    • Colonial Viper

                      Sure. Dunne in for another term, if he decides to stand. National will make it worthwhile for him to stand.

                    • infused

                      I was tempted to respond, but TRP, and many others including that are still so delusional.

                      It’s just getting stupid now.

                  • Ooooo…Thatcher?… could just as easily been Key and his National party stooges like Dunne….

                  • Ooooo…Thatcher?… could just as easily been Key and his National party stooges like Dunne….

              • weka

                “I read your comments, CV and that’s my conclusion too. You’re not left wing, by your own admission. That doesn’t leave much alternative position but right. And given the thin line between love and hate, your bourgeois lifestyle and your misanthrope, ACT is clearly your next stop. And why not? It’s an honest choice.”

                Sorry trp, but that’s just fucking stupid. I’m pretty sure that CV has voted Mana in the past, and there is always NZF esp given that CV admires Peters. To suggest that CV would vote ACT just because he won’t vote Labour or no longer considers himself left wing in terms of traditional left/right spectrum is either daft or a wind up.

                Lots of people who don’t consider themselves left also don’t consider themselves right. FFS, there’s whole swathes of people in younger generations than you and I who just don’t see politics in that polarity. You must be aware of this.

                • Cricklewood

                  That last paragraph is very true. Personally I find the tribalism evident with some commenters frustrating.
                  But each to their own….

                • I’m aware of that problem, but it doesn’t change anything, weka Ignorance is not an excuse. And pretending that left/right has disappeared is a right wing trope.

                  “There is no such thing as society”. M Thatcher.

                  • weka

                    People who don’t identify as left or right aren’t inherently ignorant nor pretending that the left/right has disappeared. Nor can their politics be written off as Thatcher-esque, that’s an incorrect understanding of what those politics are. It’s not even a problem.

                    There is also a strong theme within Green politics of being neither left nor right. This isn’t a denial that the spectrum exists, it’s an assertion that it’s not the only way of understanding politics. Poor understanding of this leads people to think that if the Greens aren’t left they must be right, and that’s simply not true.

                    I don’t think that CV is arguing the same positions as some of the Greens (although I find it ironic to hear him now renouncing the left), but it’s very weird to see you suggesting that because someone doesn’t vote Labour they must be going to vote Act.

                  • the pigman

                    I think you get carried away, TRP, and comparisons of your hounding comments to a Stalinist purge (esp. re: CV) aren’t entirely outlandish. There’s a deep bitterness to some of it and it does the NZLP no credit (insert Slater nasty-party-meme here).

                    Having said that, there was a chubby little chap with multiple piercings and dyed hair called Shawn Tan that was quite active on in the UoA Green Party when I was a student. 3-4 years after graduating, he showed up again as a reformed libertarian on the ACT party list for the 2011 election at some ludicrously high placing (still didn’t get in). I see deeper and deeper shades of him in CV these days.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      So did this guy Tan take Global Warming and fossil fuel depletion as clear, present and immediate threats to modern civilisation?

                      In addition was he aware of the insidious growth of the security surveillance state and the power of elite bankster influence in every day government?

                      If not, then his politics are nothing like my politics, and his understanding of the world is nothing like my understanding of the world.

                      Does that help clarify things?

                      edit – TRP doesn’t understand any of these things either, not really. All he is interested in is seeing his side of the status quo establishment coin take power again, and carrying favour with that establishment so that he can take his rightful place within its hierarchy.

                • Colonial Viper

                  Cheers weka. A good evening to you.

                • Bill

                  Statists (for all their protestations to the contrary, and for all the good that some of a statist persuasion hold in their hearts) are not of the left, and the reification of their political ideology simply and always acts as a roadblock to the advancement of the left.

                  Not that that will ever be honestly acknowledged.

                  • Ironically, people who use the phrase statist are usually rightwingers, most often libertarians.

                    • weka

                      It’s probably more helpful if we don’t try and put people in boxes that suit our own world views. Because otherwise I’d have to say that trying to misframe someone else’s politics to suit our argument is rather authoritarian.

                    • Te Reo Putake

                      Cheers, weka. It’s not putting people in boxes, it’s making distinctions based on pretty orthodox political science. Well, in my case, I think Marxist analysis is orthodox! Given that it hasn’t been superseded by anything else, it remains the best guide for leftists.

                      While this sub thread has meandered way off the post topic, it has been useful. I’m going to put a post up in the next couple of days about class and why it’s still vital. In short, if you don’t recognise class, you’re seeing the world through blinkers. This is why we have commenters here who are clever, passionate and sort of aware of the problem, but who are utterly unable to articulate what the problem is, let alone what the solutions might be. And that’s the way capital wants us to be; flailing like the Man of La Mancha.

                      There was a saying a few years ago that ‘we are all middle class now’. I think the last few years have shown that, in fact, we are all working class now.

                    • weka

                      Cheers, weka. It’s not putting people in boxes, it’s making distinctions based on pretty orthodox political science. Well, in my case, I think Marxist analysis is orthodox! Given that it hasn’t been superseded by anything else, it remains the best guide for leftists.

                      Which is pretty much what I’d expect an authoritarian to reply 🙂 There are lots of ways of understanding politics outside the orthodoxy. Hell, if we had to rely on the orthodoxy I’d be in the kitchen making everyone a cup of tea at this point.

                      I still think you are misframing CV’s politics, and that that is a shame because it’s really not necessary. I disagree with some of CV’s views (and often with how he acts on them), but I don’t feel the need to misrepresent them.

                      While this sub thread has meandered way off the post topic, it has been useful. I’m going to put a post up in the next couple of days about class and why it’s still vital. In short, if you don’t recognise class, you’re seeing the world through blinkers. This is why we have commenters here who are clever, passionate and sort of aware of the problem, but who are utterly unable to articulate what the problem is, let alone what the solutions might be. And that’s the way capital wants us to be; flailing like the Man of La Mancha.

                      I’m pretty sure that the people in this sub thread all recognise class and have their own analyses. I agree it’s been a useful conversation (apart from the misreprenting stuff).

                      There was a saying a few years ago that ‘we are all middle class now’. I think the last few years have shown that, in fact, we are all working class now.

                      And then there is the underclass…

                  • weka

                    If you are using statism in a spectrum then I’ll have to disagree. Many of those people are on the left, although I agree that they block much of the advancement of the left as well. I guess then we’d have to have a debate about who gets to define the word left. I’d probably make an argument that people who’ve been voting for Labour (NZ) their whole lives are left wing even if they still support the state managing things.

                    By this stage in the conversation what we really need to be doing is getting off the single axis and looking at politics in a more complex way. Trp seems to be saying that there is only left or right and everything else is misperception and problematic. Some of the rest of us would argue that there is at least one other axis which is the libertarian/authoritarian one (not sure if the statist analyis fits on there or is on another axis again).

                    One problem with all that is the people who still care and think about issues but don’t define themselves as being on those axes.

                    Which reminds me of a link I dropped the other day about autism, and how the autism spectrum isn’t a line it’s a colour wheel. The problem with the line model is that it leads non-autistic people to try and position autistic people somewhere between very autistic and not autistic at all and that’s not actually how it works. Different people with autism function from different parts of the wheel and it’s not possible to line them up so that one person is more autistic or less autistic than the person next too them. Much better and real understanding comes from seeing them as functioning from a wheel of possibilities that includes 5 broad areas of functioning (which takes us out of the left/right, up/down axes as well).

                    http://themighty.com/2016/05/rebecca-burgess-comic-redesigns-the-autism-spectrum/

                    I’ll have a think about how to use that model for politics, but I think it’s especially important for the left because so many people who in the past would have identified as left, now are identifying as not even on that scale at all. This doesn’t mean they don’t have libertarian/authoritarian aspects to their politics, it just means we can’t neatly understand their politics in conventional models a la

                    http://www.politicalcompass.org/nz2011

                    • Bill

                      Statism sits on an authoritarian/ non-authoritarian continuum.

                      Parliamentary parties are statist. Much self identified left ideology or cultism is incredibly authoritarian. The blind spot would appear to be an inability on the part of social democratic statists and authoritarian cultists to recognise that there is nothing intrinsically ‘left’ about the politics they ascribe to.

                      In short, ‘left’ is when society provides to its own needs without the political or economic overbearance of a state or markets. Read any socialist literature (rather than literature promoting the various 20th C cults of Leninism, Stalinism. Maosim etc) and that simple basic premise permeates all the writings.

                      When the Bolsheviks hijacked the Russian revolution, and among other things, seized control of market mechanisms, they didn’t build hospitals and provide healthcare or housing because they were good guys, but simply because they’d decreed that the market would not be allowed to provide such stuff and that they, through the mechanism of the state, would. Predictably, to do that, they had to crush the innate potential of society to provide and manage itself. And socialists the world over at the time condemned them for what they were doing.

                      It’s worth noting that at the time of the thwarted Russian revolution, the term fascism hadn’t yet been coined. And when the reality of Mussolini’s Italy (Mussolini being the man who developed the concept of fascism), is compared to Bolshevik Russia, it’s striking how similar the two are from the perspective of society.

                      It’s not unreasonable to suggest that all Mussolini did was essentially tease the Bolshevik example apart a bit – meaning that instead of ‘the Party’ being the unquestionable authority and expression of everything, some authority was delegated. So, religious authority was ceded to the church and production was placed in the hands of competing corporate bodies that, importantly, had to serve the state first and foremost.

                      Meanwhile, the Italian state, in common with all other authoritarian regimes of the time, provided some measure of social welfare (eg – maternity benefits, old age benefits, accident insurance, unemployment benefit…). And also in common with all other authoritarian regimes of the time, it actively crushed any and all expressions of socialism.

                • left for dead

                  Here here weka….but hey its the trp, gets a bit blinded by fear an loathing.
                  CV is many things but not an act supporter. 👿
                  TRP we all know your position, “play the ball not the person”

                • Reddlusion

                  Excellent points

            • Reddlusion 5.1.1.1.1.2

              “Do you read my comments”

              No Paul does not, he is to busy reviewing his doom and gloom RSS feeds to be first in re his moronic morning Neo liberal blah blah postings Thus he reads nothing, nor engages his brain that is in a perpetual loop 😃

          • The Lone Haranguer 5.1.1.1.2

            Or mores the point, where are the Act and Conservative voters going to go given that both those parties are stuffed.

            I would pick the 4% conservatives to go to NZF and the 1% Act ones to go to the Nats, but that may be a bit of a guess.

            Regardless, I see Winston being the winner from it all, and him trying to shaft the Greens again after the election.

            Will Labour – given the choice – sacrifice the MoU to get to the treasury benches with Winston or will they remain in opposition?

        • Muttonbird 5.1.1.2

          Not voting Labour/Green you mean.

          I read a handful of your comments (that’s all it takes) and can only assume you’ll be voting for no party at all. Out of spite.

        • leftie 5.1.1.3

          Well that’s such a surprise… NOT Colonial Viper.

    • Chooky 5.2

      good analysis CV

      • Colonial Viper 5.2.1

        Thanks Chooky. The Left needs to keep it real.

        Thinking that Green voters are going to gift all their votes to Labour, and that National are going to just sit around and watch their patsy Dunne go down taking their fourth term with them, ain’t going to happen.

        It just ain’t realistic thinking.

    • I think I covered why it would be significant if National are forced to react that way in the post. What I might have also included is that I think that represents a shift; the Tories forced on the defensive for a change. It would also mark all three parties adapting to MMP’s possibilities in ways they hadn’t tried before. It shows that MMP has really bedded in now.

      • Colonial Viper 5.3.1

        Fair enough. My concern is National responding to the Labour/Greens tactic by pulling their own candidate.

        Dunne’s majority will go up from 700 to 7,000. Then we’ll never get rid of him. The dynamics may definitely shift but that shift is not a winning one, IMO.

        • AB 5.3.1.1

          That could happen – but at least National would have to openly declare its hand. Then everyone could see that UF and ACT are pseudo-parties within the ambit of National, are in Parliament only through the grace and favour of National, and are deliberately used to subvert the principle of proportionality that MMP is founded on. Dunne and Seymour don’t currently pull in anyone on their coat-tails, but they still distort proportionality by being National party satellites that are not counted when National is allocated its percentage of seats..

          It would be much better of course if the MMP rules had a way to counter this behaviour, rather than Lab/Green having to resort to what TRP has suggested. Removing coat-tailing is a must, but as I said, this alone won’t solve the rorts in Ohariu and Epsom

          Drafting such rules would be tricky – e.g. if party X pulls out of an electorate race or gives the electoral commission sufficient grounds to reasonably believe they have endorsed some other party, what should happen then? Should an elected member of the tacitly endorsed party be counted in Party X’s allocation of seats?

          • Lanthanide 5.3.1.1.1

            I don’t think you want to go down the path of the electoral commission deciding if parties have endorsed other parties and meting out punishments if they have.

            • AB 5.3.1.1.1.1

              No – I don’t think so either. But does that mean there is no solution?

          • Colonial Viper 5.3.1.1.2

            That could happen – but at least National would have to openly declare its hand. Then everyone could see that UF and ACT are pseudo-parties within the ambit of National,

            Geezus mate most everyone in the country figured this out a decade ago. An the rest of them figured it out by the time of the Tea Pot Tapes. And I have no idea why you think any of this will make a difference to anything.

            • AB 5.3.1.1.2.1

              “everyone in the country figured this out a decade ago”
              Don’t really agree CV – most of the people I know don’t realise how this distorts proportionality. And if they don’t understand that, they don’t get the motivation behind it.
              Agree it won’t make much difference and is likely to produce a “plague on all your houses” response among the public.
              It would be better if support for the left was running at levels where we didn’t have to worry about the finer points of the electoral system.

              • Colonial Viper

                OK so most people won’t get the thing about distorting electoral system proportionality.

                But NZers voters have long understood that National helps ACT and UF out because it helps National form governments.

                And basically, they don’t care.

        • Rosie 5.3.1.2

          You know what CV, I do wonder if Dunne will even stand next time. By 2017, he will have held the seat for 33 years. How much life does a zero polling one man party/political personality have left? He definitely got the smugness knocked out of him on election night 2014. His ego is too great to face a defeat. I’m not sure if he wants to put himself through that.
          Through our campaigning with People’s Power Ohariu we discovered he really has lost the level of popularity and support he once had, even from die hard Dunne fans.

          The nat candidate in 2014, Brett Hudson, who is a real doofus, campaigned really hard for the nat party vote. He got in as a list MP and has an office in the electorate. He makes himself known, gets himself in the local paper all the time etc. (He’s been there less since I complained to the paper about their obvious political bias). I reckon he has his claws into the electorate. I’m wondering if it’s possible that it will be a Labour vs Nat vote in 2017.

          But even if Dunne backs out Lanthanides point at 2.1.2 is relevant.

          • Colonial Viper 5.3.1.2.1

            Thanks for the update from on the ground Rosie. TBH I have to agree, I have no idea why any one would choose to do 30 years in Parliament.

            On another note, Labour made a big mistake driving away Charles Chauvel. He would have taken that seat from Dunne last time around, I reckon.

            • Rosie 5.3.1.2.1.1

              I think at this stage he’s there for the $$$ and perks only, which wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. His work in the electorate is a doddle. He gets to open the odd playground and generally handle easy issues that should be directed to the ward’s councilors instead. It’s easy money as long as he is safe………

              As for Charles Chauvel, he was bright and sharp. I have a feeling he wasn’t happy during Shearers time as leadership. I wrote to him asking “is this it?” I got a cryptic sort of coded non committal reply which made me think this was not the direction he wanted to Labour go in. He left the party shortly after.

              However Ginny Andersen closed on in his votes and out did him. The glitches with having Chauvel representing Labour in a deeply conservative, read homophobic, community was that he wasn’t trusted by locals due to their own prejudices. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an element of racism too.

              Ginny is also very smart. She is very quick in a debate, unflappable clever and has a sense of humour. She’s an approachable person that people can easily warm too. She has a lot of appeal. It will be a battle but I do think she can win the electorate in 2017.

              • Colonial Viper

                I’m wondering then if the answer isn’t for the Greens to find a smart way to identify those staunch Green candidate voters and appeal to them to hold their nose and vote for for the Labour candidate instead.

                That would give National very little wiggle room to pull out their man from the campaign.

                • Rosie

                  “I’m wondering then if the answer isn’t for the Greens to find a smart way to identify those staunch Green candidate voters and appeal to them to hold their nose and vote for for the Labour candidate instead.”

                  Yep, thats exactly what needs to happen. I hope Andrew Little got my email to him about this situation after they announced the Labour/Green MOU (well they did ask for feedback!). I’m sure lots of other people will be pushing for that too. It should have happened last time around really.

                  I think there is a problem, after all these years of MMP with voters sometimes not understanding strategic voting. I spoke to someone just the other day (as well as several during the campaign time) who didn’t realise a vote for Ginny Andersen was a vote to remove Dunne and weaken National. I sincerely think, that to a certain degree, this has happened with the Green voters, in this specific electorate. They will need to understand it’s in their interests to electorate vote Labour and party vote Green.

              • leftie

                Thanks Rose for that information, good to learn, I enjoyed reading your posts.

          • weka 5.3.1.2.2

            I’m appreciating the background in your comments too Rosie, thanks.

    • e-clectic 5.4

      CV: yes, exactly, Nats will pull their candidate and the oleaginous one remains.

  6. Muttonbird 6

    Maori Tories

    I laughed.

    It’s like the land wars and the Maori Party are siding with the British against their own people.

  7. DS 7

    The difficulty with the Nats not running a candidate is twofold –

    (1) They don’t have anyone who can push the “National’ message at the local level. This is why Labour stood a candidate in the Northland by-election while tacitly backing Winston. In a general election, it’s even worse, since it hurts the National party vote.

    (2) It’s not out of the question that even if Dunne gets back in, he could (for the right price) support a Labour-led Government. The Nats can’t trust him either.

    • Colonial Viper 7.1

      Dunne ain’t ever supporting a Labour coalition government again. Not after the vitriol Labour has poured on Dunne for years now.

      • weka 7.1.1

        He’s unlikely to support a L/G coalition either.

        • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1

          Indeed.

          • Roflcopter 7.1.1.1.1

            If all that stood between forming a Government and sitting on the opposition benches again was Peter Dunne, you can be 100% guaranteed of two things happening…

            1) Labour/Greens will talk to Dunne and offer him something.

            2) He’ll take it.

            Dunne, rightly or wrongly, considers himself as the consummate centrist… the reality is he’s just a trougher.

            This same scenario applies 100% to the Māori Party as well.

            The Māori Party have always said they would much prefer to be working with the left (dunno why, they always get shafted by them), but have always taken up the offer from National as it’s easier to ask and receive (at least something) while you’re in the fold than just sit there whining from across the chamber.

            • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1.1.1

              Now that Turia is basically out of the picture I can conceive of the MP working with Labour again, yes. Before, not so much.

        • Rosie 7.1.1.2

          I think he loathes the Greens even more than Labour. Remember his reference to the Green Party as “The Green Taleban”?

          Kind of ironic as he courted the fish and game crowd when the numbers of UF members fell below the number that can sustain a registered political party. Did he not realise the outdoor groups are reliant on environmental protection policies in order to continue their recreational pursuits? It’s not a one way street.

          I think he would rather walk away if we get a Green/Labour/NZ First? coalition. He would dislike that outcome more, in greater amounts than his love of power and position.

      • Hanswurst 7.1.2

        I’m not sure which would be better, seeing Dunne gone, or the satisfaction of knowing that he was a forlorn, impotent one-man band on the cross-benches for what little was left of his career.

        • miravox 7.1.2.1

          Seeing him gone. Then at least he can’t pretend he was in parliament with any purpose.

      • dukeofurl 7.1.3

        If National needs NZF, Peters isnt going to allow any deals with Dunne, Seymour or MP.
        Dunne probably had more haters when he was a member of the labour caucus then now that hes outside it.
        You are confusing politics in Wellington with your experience at the LEC level. The less at stake the nastier it gets.

        • Colonial Viper 7.1.3.1

          How senior a role does Peters want in Cabinet? Does he want a good diplomatic posting after he finishes in Cabinet? Does he want a deal which will lock in the role of NZ First for more than one term?

          You paint Peters negotiating position with National as black or white. I don’t think it will be.

          • dukeofurl 7.1.3.1.1

            Thats all speculation anyway, they have to decide to want a deal first. Based on Peters slamming the door in Greens face last time, he would only want him and national without hangers on. ( dependent on his numbers he brings of course)

            Even when you get a deal to form a government there is endless deal making to follow for the 3 years. Thats when Peters retirement plans would be worked out.
            When you are going to quit will never be on the table for the main deal.

  8. save nz 8

    Dunne to the dunny
    no maori Tories

    Yay!

    • Chooky 8.1

      yes that would be a good start…jonkey nact annihilated would be best…but for this they need Winston NZF….and Mana/Int…Annette Sykes needs a clear Left field to run and to win …as did Hone in TTT

    • leftie 8.2

      Agreed Save NZ. I want to see Dunne and the Nats Maori party gone, never to return.

  9. Michael 9

    If the collaboration deal between Labour and the Greens only results in us getting rid of Dunne, it will have been worth it.

  10. weka 10

    A few things missing from your analysis trp.

    The Greens campaign in the electorates because it increases their party vote.

    Harawira could make good with his electorate and stand again and win.

    If Labour really wants to change the govt, it would put Kelvin Davis up the list and run a quiet campaign in Te Tai Tokerau. What I’m hearing from you is the idea that the Greens should grant Labour concessions, but not a lot of rationale for why other than for the good of the electorate. But if that costs the Greens party vote?

    • Te Reo Putake 10.1

      Fair call, weka. The Greens are a party vote party and standing on electorates helps maximise the party vote. So it’s a compromise not to stand. It may even mean the difference between x number of MP’s next Parliament and x plus 1. But being in government is clearly worth the risk of a slightly lower PV.

      That’s the real game changer here. The Greens clearly recognise that being in opposition is mostly ineffective. So they have to take a gamble. Labour are also gambling; they may shed some PV to the Greens. But to re-establish themselves on the ground in the electorates and potentially to lead the next government makes it a risk worth taking.

      My feelings about the value of electorates are separate from that discussion. It’s important to remember that local MP’s have a job to do in their communities and if you want an empathetic hearing in your local electorate office, that’ll only come from a Labour MP. Or, if you live in the north, from your NZF MP, who I’m told has revitalised the electorate offices up there.

      • dukeofurl 10.1.1

        Standing in electorates is mainly to allow a higher spending limit for party
        Each electorate is worth about $21k on top of the $1.1 mill base spend.

        As we know the Greens have plenty of money from their wealthy supporters. But of course the top leadership gets 1/2 to 1/3 of the Green party vote as candidate votes even in strong Greens electorates.
        The rest of the candidates get a fraction of PV.

        • dukeofurl 10.1.1.1

          Just some more detail of maximum spending from Elections NZ

          “The expense limit for the 2014 general election for a party contesting the party vote was $1,091,000 (including GST) plus $25,700 (including GST) per electorate contested by the party.”

          Spending by Greens and limit
          Party of Aotearoa/New Zealand (Green Party) 18/02/2015 5/03/2015 Yes Yes 57 $2,555,900.00 $1,261,668.49 $35,941.09 $0.00

          So they ran in 57 electorates
          Spending limit was $2.5Mill based on those 57 electorates
          Actual spend was $1.2 mill so they were $169k over the min.

          So they only need to stand in 6-7 seats to justify that. You could say that standing in around 50 of those seats was wasted effort.
          There was only $36k of ‘shared spending’ between cnadidate and party so the idea that they are campaigning for party vote doesnt stack up
          Labour had $225k of shared spending with candidates and party

      • save nz 10.1.2

        Both Labour and Greens need to take some measured risks. Labour trying to stay safe and be the ‘broadchurch’ NatLite has lost them a lot of votes and Greens just need to get some radical push behind them – not necessary on policy but just as individuals be more visible in the community – not just Wellington.

        It is pretty clear from the alliance that they have gone centre left which gives the signal that many supporters were waiting for (TPP, surveillance etc), without detailing policy that gives rise to dissent.

        They just need to work together with the main goal to change the government and keep the messages simple and not complicated jumbles of rules.

      • weka 10.1.3

        Fair call, weka. The Greens are a party vote party and standing on electorates helps maximise the party vote. So it’s a compromise not to stand. It may even mean the difference between x number of MP’s next Parliament and x plus 1. But being in government is clearly worth the risk of a slightly lower PV.

        That’s the real game changer here. The Greens clearly recognise that being in opposition is mostly ineffective. So they have to take a gamble. Labour are also gambling; they may shed some PV to the Greens. But to re-establish themselves on the ground in the electorates and potentially to lead the next government makes it a risk worth taking.

        I’m still not clear what you mean. The Greens standing aside in certain electorates doesn’t increase the chances of Labour forming govt via the vote/seat allocation. There may be some advantage in terms of communicating certain things to the electorate and thus increasing the vote, but you’d have to make the case for that. At the moment all you seem to be saying is that the Greens should sacrifice something so that Labour will do a coalition deal with them. It’s hardly a position of partnership.

        My feelings about the value of electorates are separate from that discussion. It’s important to remember that local MP’s have a job to do in their communities and if you want an empathetic hearing in your local electorate office, that’ll only come from a Labour MP. Or, if you live in the north, from your NZF MP, who I’m told has revitalised the electorate offices up there.

        Sure, but you appear still to be saying that the Greens should sacrifice for the greater good but not Labour (eg TTT). Again, it’s not really in the spirit of coalitions or even MMP.

        • dukeofurl 10.1.3.1

          The money trail shows the Greens arent really working to increase the party vote by standing in electorates.

          The local candidates just dont spend enough locally and they arent pushing the party vote otherwise that would show up in the shared expenses for election advertising.

          So why are the Greens putting around 50 candidates up for seats out of the 57 who they did stand. As these serve no financial or vote getting purpose

          • weka 10.1.3.1.1

            Unless you can back that theory up in some meaningful way I think I’ll trust the GP’s expertise in how to manage their campaigns over yours.

            • dukeofurl 10.1.3.1.1.1

              Politics is a lot of claim but little reality so thats not a good foundation

              Ill explain. If a billboard goes up that solely says PARTY Vote Greens, thats a national green expense.
              A billboard that has both local candidate and asks for party vote has to be split between the two.
              So how come the recorded split expense for Greens is only $26k vs labour $225K when they both had very similar national campaign spending.

              Thats where the logic of greens claiming candidates promote party vote is exposed as a fallacy. Greens candidates only promoting themselves would be a heresy, so they arent doing that either.

              Of course if the central hive says one thing, you are expected to obey without hesitation.

  11. Enough is Enough 11

    We all called Epsom a dirty deal, because it was.

    If Labour and the Greens start playing the same game, National will up the ante. There will be no National candidate challenging Dunne, Seymour and maybe even Craig.

    That gives those three parties a free ride into parliament, while the Labour and the Greens won’t achieve anything as they will already make the 5% threshold.

    These deals are only a clever move if you are helping a shit party into Parliament.

    • dukeofurl 11.1

      Here , Ill get get a hanky to dry your eyes.

      • Enough is Enough 11.1.1

        To dry my eyes as the politically incompetent Labour party fucks up another election for us….thanks I will need it

        • dukeofurl 11.1.1.1

          You have the political insight of a stuffed bunny, so no one would care about your tears or tribulations

  12. Paul Campbell 12

    I think that if Dunne were smart he’d join the L-G almost-coalition today …. stick it to Key and preserve his seat

  13. Colonial Viper 13

    Heres an interesting fact someone passed to me: Labour voters in Ohariu who vote for the Hairdo are responsible for Dunne’s victory in the electorate!!!

    There are almost 800 of them.

    • That’s probably correct in a sense, CV. But then, MMP encourages divided voting and if your local MP is regarded as likeable or a hard worker, people will support them despite their PV going in another direction. For example, next door to Ohariu, there are Tory voters who vote for the Labour party MP in Hutt South. Same scenario in the West Coast electorate. And Palmy. Used to happen in New Plymouth too. And Tauranga when Winston was the MP there and Northland now that he’s the MP there.

      • Colonial Viper 13.1.1

        And another 500 Green Party voters split for Dunne too.

        • te reo putake 13.1.1.1

          Yep. I hope the GP/LP alliance will give those voters a reason to consider voting for whichever candidate those two parties endorse. And the same in the seats I mentioned in the post. No longer just ‘two ticks’, please, but two ticks that make a difference, please.

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    4 days ago
  • Aggressive action to address climate change could save the world $145 trillion
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections A respected research group, Project Drawdown, finds that deploying solutions consistent with meeting the Paris climate targets would cost tens of trillions of dollars globally. But crucially, those outlays would also yield long-term savings many times larger than the up-front costs. The new 2020 Drawdown ...
    5 days ago
  • After the Pandemic
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    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    5 days ago
  • Coronavirus – Cuba shows the way
    We’ve been meaning t write something on Cuba and the coronavirus but have just discovered a very good article on the subject in the US left publication Jacobin.  The article looks at how Cuba, a poor country but one where capitalism has been done away with, is leading the way ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • Using privacy law to prevent the death penalty
    In 2018, El Shafee Elsheikh and Alexanda Kotey - two British citizens who had purportedly been stripped of their citizenship by the British government - were captured while fighting for Isis in Syria. The British government then conspired to hand them over to the US, and agreed to provide evidence ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • It’s Time For Disaster Socialism.
    Transformers: The disaster of the Great Depression was transformed into a new and fairer society by the democratic socialism of the First Labour Government. The disaster of the Covid-19 Pandemic offers a similar transformative possibility to the Labour-NZ First-Green Government. Seize the time, Jacinda! You will never have a better ...
    5 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12, 2020
    Tamper with The System? Well, we already are. But there's a difference between accidentally trickling sand into a precision gearbox versus formulating a plan to alter it on the fly with improvements in mind. One action is more or less innocently unscrupulous, the other amenable to earning an easy ...
    5 days ago
  • Avoidable hospitalisations: Helping our health system get through COVID-19
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    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    6 days ago
  • Raise the Bar: 10 questions to ask your employer proposing redundancy
    Kia ora my name is Chloe Ann-King* and I am the founder of Raise the Bar, a campaign and non-profit that gives free legal aid, advocacy and tautoko to hospitality workers in Aotearoa. Right now all over our country hospo workers are being fired at will, having shifts cut or being ...
    PosseBy chloeanneking
    6 days ago
  • An equitable way to support business
    The Herald reports that the government is planning to lend billions of dollars to large businesses to keep them operating during the pandemic. As with mortgage relief, this is necessary: we need companies to stay in business, to reduce the economic damage and help things get restarted again when this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Hard News: Together Alone
    We're about to do something unprecedented as a nation. We hope that by taking this extraordinary action before a single life in New Zealand has been lost to the deadly novel virus we will save tens of thousands of lives. Our  lives. We'll do it together, in households, in isolation ...
    6 days ago
  • Why timing is everything: ‘A time to refrain from embracing’ starts today
    “There is a time for everything,    and a season for every activity under the heavens.”So writes the author of Ecclesiastes, a book in the Old Testament that’s counted as a ‘wisdom’ book and written as if by an unnamed king of Jerusalem. But who would have thought there would be a time ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    6 days ago
  • Dealing with the Covid-19 Tsunami.
    I was surprised when the prime minister described the Economic Response to Covid-19 package as the ‘largest peacetime government spend in New Zealand's history’. Reflecting – checking through history – I realised that the term ‘spend’ was crucial and the package had no income tax cuts. Even so, it has ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    6 days ago
  • What about renters?
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Living within our means.
    Years ago the Argentine sociologist Carlos Weisman wrote a book titled “Living within our Means.” It was a critique of Argentine society that focused on the paradoxical question of why, in a land of plenty, there was so much economic instability, inequality, corruption and political turmoil. His conclusion was basically ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    7 days ago
  • Transparency and the pandemic
    Parliament will be leading by example and adjourning tomorrow after a special sitting to consider an epidemic notice and state of emergency. Day-to-day oversight of the government will be delegated to a select committee. But that's not the only overight mechanism. The OIA will still be law, and (so far) ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • ‘Overjoyed’: a leading health expert on New Zealand’s coronavirus shutdown, and the challengin...
    Michael Baker, University of Otago Overjoyed. That’s not a word epidemiologists normally use, but that’s how I felt after hearing Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s announcement about New Zealand’s COVID-19 shutdown of everything except essential services for at least four weeks from midnight on Wednesday. More than anything, I just ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    7 days ago
  • One way to solve the housing crisis
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • The pros and cons of planting trees to address global warming
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bruce Lieberman It seems like such a simple, straightforward, empowering idea: plant trees – a lot of trees – all over the world, and watch the planet’s temperature fall. Who doesn’t love a tree or two, even far more – the right ...
    7 days ago
  • Not a grand coalition, but a government of national salvation
    According to Newshub, Simon Bridges is open to joining a “grand coalition” with Labour as we hunker down to go into a month long lockdown. The idea is sound. Before now, the role of the opposition was to scrutinise and oppose. In the context of what almost amounts to a ...
    PunditBy Liam Hehir
    1 week ago
  • Raise the Bar: hospitality workers & wage subsidy entitlements
    Kia ora my name is Chloe Ann-King* and I am the founder of Raise the Bar, a campaign and non-profit that gives free legal aid, advocacy and tautoko to hospitality workers in Aotearoa. Right now all over our country hospo workers are being fired at will, having shifts cut or ...
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    1 week ago
  • Lifting our game against COVID-19
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    SciBlogsBy Grant Jacobs
    1 week ago
  • The maths and ethics of minimising COVID-19 deaths in NZ
    Prof Tony Blakely, Prof Michael Baker, and Prof Nick Wilson The NZ Government must do more to clearly articulate its COVID-19 strategy: eradication or ‘flattening the curve’ mitigation. But to do so means understanding the maths and ethics of both these strategies. In this blog, we adapt our work for ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • All aboard the Covid Train
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    PunditBy Phil Vine
    1 week ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #12
    Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Climate Feedback Article Review... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Reviews... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... In Just 10 Years, Warming Has Increased the Odds of Disasters The likelihood of extreme events ...
    1 week ago
  • We are all socialists now
    Last week, the government announced a $12 billion initial package to support people during the pandemic. Today, the Reserve Bank is buying government bonds - effectively printing money - to keep up the money supply during the crisis. Normally such moves would have the right apoplectic. Instead, the National Party ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A plea to experts: safeguard your role in public life
    I am a pundit, somebody who opines and comments on the news. There are no real qualifications to punditry though having a rudimentary way with words and good general knowledge helps. That is one reason there is a constant oversupply of would-be pundits and why it is quite hard to ...
    PunditBy Liam Hehir
    1 week ago
  • Enlightenment when?
    I recently encountered the following prescription from a Faculty of Education at a leading New Zealand University. At first I wondered if it was another product of the postmodern generator (http://www.elsewhere.org/journal/pomo/), designed to create gibberish in the postmodern form, but I’m told it is real: The “schooled” society: Towards the ...
    SciBlogsBy Michael Corballis
    1 week ago
  • What the Crisis Can teach Us
    The coronavirus pandemic has of course had a major impact on individual lives and on societies as a whole. But, long after the crisis has passed (assuming it does), we will begin to realise that its real and lasting significance lies in the lessons it has taught us, if only ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • Hammering home measures to stop COVID-19
    COVID-19 has plunged Aotearoa New Zealand (indeed, the world) into territory that, while maybe not totally unprecedented, certainly hasn’t been seen during the lifetimes of most of us here today. Our borders are closed to non-citizens, we’re being told not to gather in groups of more than 500 outside/100 inside, ...
    PunditBy Andrew Geddis
    1 week ago
  • What does ‘level two’ mean – and why does it matter?
    For the last few weeks, I’ve been urging you to prepare yourself, your family, business, and community for Covid-19. Now it’s time for real action.  Yesterday the director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield announced another 13 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in New Zealand, bringing our total to date to 52. ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    1 week ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #12
    A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Mar 15, 2020 through Sat, Mar 21, 2020 Editor's Pick Now Isn’t the Time to Forget About Our Climate Change Efforts   Tasha Tilberg, Lindsey Wixson, and Liu Wen photographed ...
    1 week ago
  • Is the Guardian becoming  a real newspaper again?
    by Jan Rivers The article has been corrected to show that it was Ewen MacAskill, former Guardian journalist and not Luke Harding who travelled to meet Edward Snowden with journalist Glenn Greenwald and filmmaker Laura Poitras.  Some of the Guardian’s well-known journalists who did not sign the protest letter are ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Life asserts itself regardless
    by Cultural Worker Late March 2020 amidst the virus. With gigs crashing and burning all around it was without much hope that I called a long standing rest home booking: “ Hi, I’m supposed to be entertaining at your place this afternoon – is it still on?” “”If you don’t ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Politics, the possible, and the pandemic
    Whenever people demand real change from their politicians, we're told that "politics is the art of the possible". The implication is that change isn't possible, so we'd better just get used to the sucky status quo. But now that there's a pandemic, a lot of things we were previously told ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The Only Way Through This Crisis Is Together.
    Together: In leading New Zealand through the Covid-19 Pandemic, the Prime Minister could do a lot worse than allow herself to be guided by the spirit of collective sacrifice and co-operation that animated the New Zealanders of 80 years ago. Most Kiwis alive today have had no opportunity to prove their ...
    2 weeks ago
  • GFC vs Covid-19
    It is said that generals fight the last war. In the case of the early stages of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) they had learned from the Great Depression of the 1930s and they fought intelligently and successfully. Later their advice would be ignored in favour of the Austerians who ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    2 weeks ago
  • Nobody Left Behind.
    Solidarity Forever: All over the world, the arrival of the Covid-19 virus has exposed the fragility of the walls we erect around ourselves and our loved ones. It has shattered our illusions of autonomy and revealed to us how utterly dependent we all are on other human-beings. Finally, we see ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Rebuilding a truly “Democratic” counter, or a “moderate Republican” bolt-hol...
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    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 weeks ago
  • Abortion law reform a win for women
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    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • How to spot bogus science stories and read the news like a scientist
    Doug Specht, University of Westminster and Julio Gimenez, University of Westminster When fake news, misreporting and alternative facts are everywhere, reading the news can be a challenge. Not only is there plenty of misinformation about the coronavirus pandemic, climate change and other scientific topics floating around social media, you also ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • Why New Zealand needs to continue decisive action to contain coronavirus
    Michael Baker, University of Otago and Nick Wilson, University of Otago With some of the toughest border restrictions and a newly-announced NZ$500 million boost to health services, New Zealand is among a small number of countries with a strategy to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. New Zealand is also fortunate in ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    2 weeks ago
  • Parliament and the pandemic II
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • When a virus goes viral: pros and cons to the coronavirus spread on social media
    Axel Bruns, Queensland University of Technology; Daniel Angus, Queensland University of Technology; Timothy Graham, Queensland University of Technology, and Tobias R. Keller, Queensland University of Technology News and views about coronavirus has spread via social media in a way that no health emergency has done before. Platforms like Twitter, Facebook, ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • How to survive 14 days of self-isolation
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    2 weeks ago
  • Abortion Legislation Bill passes third reading
    Some fave speeches:     ...
    Boots TheoryBy Stephanie Rodgers
    2 weeks ago
  • Why Leadership Matters – More Than Anything.
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    2 weeks ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11, 2020
    2 weeks ago
  • 68-51
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The ‘herd immunity’ route to fighting coronavirus is unethical and potentially dangerous
    As most of the world tries to suppress the coronavirus spread, some countries are going it alone – trying to manage the pandemic through so-called “herd immunity”. Herd immunity means letting a large number of people catch a disease, and hence develop immunity to it, to stop the virus spreading. ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • Eight new COVID-19 cases today. It’s no surprise when you look at some numbers
    So, as I sit at home with a very, very slight headache (i.e. not at work when I would otherwise be so), the now familiar figure of Ashley Bloomfield reports eight new confirmed cases of COVID-19  including two in Waikato. A surprise, given that we had just twelve yesterday? No. ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    2 weeks ago

  • Christchurch Hospital Hagley ICU to open to support COVID-19 response
    Health Minister Dr David Clark says 36 new intensive care beds at Christchurch Hospital’s new Hagley building are being fast tracked so they are available for treatment of COVID-19 patients.   The Ministry of Health is working with contractor CPB and Canterbury DHB to enable access to the hospital’s ICU, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Government supports Air NZ freight flights
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    24 hours ago
  • Tariff concessions on COVID-19 related products
    New Zealand will temporarily remove tariffs on all medical and hygiene imports needed for the COVID-19 response. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker and Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Kris Faafoi said today that the New Zealand Customs Service will apply tariff concessions to all diagnostic reagents and testing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Clarification of modification to wage subsidy scheme
    Minister of Finance Grant Robertson has clarified that the changes to the wage subsidy scheme announced yesterday mean that employers should be passing on the full subsidy to workers, except in the case where the person’s normal income is less than the level of the subsidy. “We still want employers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Face masks flowing to DHBs
    Medical face masks from the national reserve supply are now being distributed to District Health Boards, while at the same time local production is being ramped up. Yesterday more than 640,000 masks were sent to DHBS – that is an immediate two week supply, with more to follow in coming ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • COVID-19: Further steps to protect New Zealanders’ jobs
    The Government has made modifications to the wage subsidy scheme to ensure people don’t lose their jobs during the national lockdown. These changes will soften the impact of COVID-19 on workers, families and businesses, and position them to exit the lockdown and look to recovery, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Tax relief for Mycoplasma Bovis farmers
    Farmers whose herds were culled in response to the outbreak of Mycoplasma bovis will be able to minimise the tax treatment of their income in some circumstances. Revenue Minister Stuart Nash says Cabinet has agreed to change the law. It means farmers may be eligible to spread their income over ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • $27 million for NGOs and community groups to continue providing essential services
    A $27 million dollar package, effective immediately, is being provided to social sector services and community groups to ensure they can continue to provide essential support to communities as we stay at home as a nation to stop the spread of COVID-19, Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni announced. “At ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Statement on guilty plea of March 15 terrorist
    “The guilty plea today will provide some relief to the many people whose lives were shattered by what happened on March 15,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said. “These guilty pleas and conviction bring accountability for what happened and also save the families who lost loved ones, those who were injured, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • COVID-19 updates
    The Prime Minister is holding daily press conferences to update New Zealanders on the Government's response to COVID-19. Links to videos and transcripts of these updates below. These transcripts also include All of Government press conferences led by Director Ministry of Health's Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield. 25 March: Live update from the Prime ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Police numbers break through 10,000 mark
    Frontline Police numbers have broken through the 10,000 mark for the first time in history as officers step forward to keep the community safe during the COVID19 lockdown. “Two Police graduations in Auckland and Wellington in the past week have been conducted in unprecedented circumstances,” Police Minister Stuart Nash said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Urgent tax measures for economic recovery
    Urgent legislation has been passed to support the package of economic and social measures needed to recover from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. “The COVID-19 Response (Taxation and Social Assistance Urgent Measures) Bill will cushion New Zealanders from the worst economic impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak,” said Revenue Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Further support for farmers and growers as drought persists
    From tomorrow, Government support for farmers and growers affected by drought will be expanded and extended across the country, with access to Rural Assistance Payments (RAPS) available throughout the North Island, parts of the South Island and the Chatham Islands, Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced. “These challenging conditions have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • COVID-19: Temporary changes to Education Act
    Parliament has passed amendments to legislation that give the Secretary of Education stronger powers to act in the fight to limit the spread of COVID-19, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “They are part of a suite of changes passed under the COVID-19 Response (Urgent Management Measures) Legislation Bill,” Chris ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Canada, Australia, Chile, Brunei and Myanmar join NZ and Singapore in committing to keeping supply a...
    Canada, Australia, Chile, Brunei and Myanmar have joined forces with New Zealand and Singapore by committing to keep supply chains open and remove any existing trade restrictive measures on essential goods, especially medical supplies, in the face of the Covid-19 crisis.  Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker today welcomed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • COVID-19: Rent increase freeze and more protection for tenants
    Immediate freeze on rent increases Tenancies will not be terminated during the lock-down period, unless the parties agree, or in limited circumstances Tenants who had previously given notice can stay in their if they need to stay in the tenancy during the lock-down period Tenants will still be able to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Working together to protect businesses and workers
    As New Zealand unites to lock-down in the fight against COVID-19, the Finance Minister is urging all businesses and workers to stay connected over the next four weeks. “We understand the extreme pressure many businesses are under right now. I know most business owners think of their workers as family ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • State of National Emergency declared to fight COVID-19
    A State of National Emergency has been declared across the country as the Government pulls out all the stops to curtail the spread of COVID-19. “Today we put in place our country’s second ever State of National Emergency as we fight a global pandemic, save New Zealanders’ lives and prevent ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Prime Minister’s statement on State of National Emergency and Epidemic Notice
    Mr Speaker I wish to make a Ministerial Statement under Standing Order 347 in relation to the recent declaration of a State of National Emergency. Having considered the advice of the Director Civil Defence Emergency Management, the Minister of Civil Defence declared a State of National Emergency for the whole of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Deadline for domestic travel extended
    People needing to travel on domestic flights, trains and Cook Strait ferries to get home before the country moves into level 4 lock-down tomorrow night will be able to continue using the passenger services until midnight on Friday, Transport Minister Phil Twyford said today. Domestic passenger services, particularly ferries, have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Mortgage holiday and business finance support schemes to cushion COVID impacts
    The Government, retail banks and the Reserve Bank are today announcing a major financial support package for home owners and businesses affected by the economic impacts of COVID-19. The package will include a six month principal and interest payment holiday for mortgage holders and SME customers whose incomes have been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government working to keep air freight moving
    Minister of Transport Phil Twyford has today announced details of the Government’s support package to keep key air freight moving and ensure New Zealanders retain access to essential goods during the four-week level 4 lockdown. “The Government is working with airlines and air freight operators to ensure New Zealand’s key ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New Zealand moves to COVID-19 Alert Level 3, then Level 4 in 48 hours
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister: COVID-19 Alert Level increased
    Good afternoon  The Cabinet met this morning to discuss our next actions in the fight against COVID-19.  Like the rest of the world, we are facing the potential for devastating impacts from this virus. But, through decisive action, and through working together, do we have a small window to get ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt takes significant economic decisions as NZ readies for Alert Level 4 in COVID-19 fight
    The Government is announcing significant further support for the economy, workers and businesses as the country unites to prepare for Alert Level 4 in the fight against COVID-19. Cabinet today agreed to remove the cap on the Government’s wage subsidy scheme, which will inject a further $4 billion into the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt backs RBNZ move to support economy with lower interest rates
    The Government is backing the Reserve Bank’s latest action to support the economy by reducing longer-term interest rates, meaning lower costs for businesses and mortgage holders, and a lower currency to help our exporters. The Minister of Finance has signed a memorandum of understanding and a letter of indemnity with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government statement on commercial cooperation during COVID-19
    The Government has asked the Commerce Commission to take account of the exceptional circumstances created by COVID-19 when monitoring business behaviour in coming weeks.   “The purpose of my request to the Commerce Commission is to make sure businesses can work together in ways that will allow them to provide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand temporarily closes diplomatic posts in Barbados and Myanmar due to COVID-19
    The New Zealand Government has temporarily closed its High Commission in Bridgetown, Barbados and its Embassy in Yangon, Myanmar due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Due to the increasing scarcity of air links in and out of Bridgetown and Yangon, and the pressure COVID-19 is placing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Supporting Māori communities and businesses through
    Associate Health and Whānau Ora Minister Peeni Henare has today announced the Government’s plan to support Māori communities and businesses in the face of COVID-19. “Our Government’s $12.1 billion economic package will help many Māori whānau, workers and businesses, whether it’s through wage subsidies, income support and worker redeployment, or ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Guidelines for hospitality establishments released
    The Government and the hospitality industry have worked together to produce guidelines to assist with managing and reducing transmission of COVID-19, Health Minister David Clark announced today.  The guidelines developed between the Government, Hospitality New Zealand and SkyCity Entertainment Group, set out how the new restrictions on physical distancing and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Nation steps up to COVID-19 Alert Level 2
    Four stage Alert System for COVID-19 announced New Zealand moved up to COVID-19 Alert Level 2 – Reduce Contact New Zealanders over 70 and those with certain medical conditions told to stay at home as much as they can to reduce risk of contact with the virus Workplaces to implement ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • PM Address – Covid-19 Update
    Kia ora koutou katoa I’m speaking directly to all New Zealanders today to give you as much certainty and clarity as we can as we fight Covid-19. Over the past few weeks, the world has changed. And it has changed very quickly. In February it would have seemed unimaginable to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ and Singapore commit to keeping supply and trade links open, including on essential goods and med...
    New Zealand and Singapore have jointly committed to keep supply chains open and to remove any existing trade restrictive measures on essential goods, especially medical supplies, in the face of the Covid-19 crisis. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker welcomed the commitment. “This is an important collective response, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Joint Ministerial Statement by Singapore and New Zealand -Covid-19 situation
    JOINT MINISTERIAL STATEMENT BY SINGAPORE AND NEW ZEALAND AFFIRMING COMMITMENT TO ENSURING SUPPLY CHAIN CONNECTIVITY AMIDST THE COVID-19 SITUATION  The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious global crisis.  As part of our collective response to combat COVID-19, Singapore and New Zealand are committed to maintaining open and connected supply chains. We ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Transit between Australia and New Zealand
    Travel restrictions, closing our border to almost all travelers came into force from 23:59 on Thursday 19 March 2020 (NZDT).  All airlines were informed of these restrictions before they came into force. Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says “The transit of passengers between Australia and New Zealand has been agreed upon and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • $100 million to redeploy workers
    The Government has allocated $100 million to help redeploy workers affected by the economic impact of COVID-19, with the hard-hit region of Gisborne-Tairāwhiti to be the first helped, Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford, Forestry and Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Employment Minister Willie Jackson announced today. Phil Twyford ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • More support for wood processing
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is ramping up support for Tairāwhiti’s wood processing sector to bolster the region’s economy at a time of heightened uncertainty, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. Following earlier announcements today of a regional support package for Tairāwhiti, Minister Jones has also announced a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt steps in to protect Air New Zealand
    The Coalition Government has stepped in to protect Air New Zealand with a significant financial deal that protects essential routes and allows the company to keep operating. The Government and Air New Zealand have agreed a debt funding agreement through commercial 24-month loan facilities of up to $900 million*. The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Stronger border measures to protect NZers from COVID-19
    The Government has taken further measures to protect New Zealanders from the COVID-19 virus, effectively stopping all people from boarding a plane to New Zealand from 11:59pm today, except for returning New Zealanders, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today.  New Zealanders’ partners, legal guardians or any dependent children travelling with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Action on indoor gatherings and events to protect public health
    The Government has reinforced its commitment to protecting the health of New Zealanders from COVID-19 through the cancellation of indoor events with more than 100 people.  “Protecting the health of New Zealanders is our number one priority, and that means we need to reduce the risks associated with large gatherings,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago