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Posts Tagged ‘colmar brunton’

How far has National really fallen?

Written By: - Date published: 12:01 pm, January 28th, 2022 - 16 comments

Because I love accurate comparisons and because the media typically do a shit job of looking at political polls, I decided that a look backwards to a comparable poll in the last parliament, Colmar Brunton early Feb 2019. National has lost support to Act but the overall conservative vote has minimal change. The Greens haven’t died. Labour looks very likely to lead the parliament.

Pollwatch: 2020 Pre-election rush

Written By: - Date published: 10:46 pm, October 16th, 2020 - 10 comments

We’ve had three recent pre-election polls. While we wait for results on election day, let’s have a look at where things might be headed.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton poll released 2020-07-30

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments

Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?

One News/CB Poll June

Written By: - Date published: 6:33 pm, June 25th, 2020 - 49 comments

The latest One News/Colmar Brunton poll continues to show Labour are the favourites to lead the next Government.

One News Colmar Brunton Poll Oct 2019

Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, October 14th, 2019 - 121 comments

The October TV One/Colmar Brunton poll is out. Like yesterday’s devastating TV3 poll result showing National not waving, but drowning, today’s poll confirms that NZ is still heading toward an historic Labour/Green Government, despite the Tories flirting with numbers in the high fifties.

UPDATE: Some weirdness with the numbers: they add up to 101% and 47% does not actually give National 60 seats, so the ‘Poll Says National Can Govern’ headlines are a wee bit optimistic.  TRP.

Two polls out tonight

Written By: - Date published: 4:50 pm, June 9th, 2019 - 87 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls are out tonight and clearly they will be trying to measure what effect the Budget has had on public opinion. What will they show?

1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll April 2019

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, April 15th, 2019 - 50 comments

The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll is out and it says that a Labour/Greens Government is what NZ wants. Oh, and we quite like Jacinda Ardern.

Colmar Brunton Feb 2019

Written By: - Date published: 8:24 pm, February 18th, 2019 - 84 comments

Another poll, another sizzling result for Jacinda Ardern and the Coalition team. Mansplain that, Simon.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, October 23rd

Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments

In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.

TVNZ Colmar Brunton Poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:06 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 162 comments

National slump in the latest poll; Judith Collins is up in the preferred PM race.

Pollwatch: 5th August, 2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments

The most likely result from Colmar Brunton's 5th august poll as a pie chart: 7 Greens, 51 Labour, 6 NZF, 1 ACT, and 55 National MPs.

The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 28/5/2018

Written By: - Date published: 7:38 pm, May 28th, 2018 - 59 comments

A chart of the expected outcome from this poll. Greens: 6, Labour: 55, National: 58, ACT: 1.

Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.

Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton, 16/4/18

Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, April 18th, 2018 - 78 comments

An arc chart of seats in the latest Colmar Brunton poll: Greens 7, Labour 53, New Zealand First 6, National 54, ACT 1.

In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.

Poll Watch: Colmar Brunton Poll 2018-2-19

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments

In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.

Latest Comar Brunton poll result

Written By: - Date published: 1:08 pm, December 10th, 2017 - 88 comments

The latest Colmar Brunton results just released suggests that support for the Government parties is stable and support for Jacinda Ardern is surging.

The poll that matters will be completed on Saturday

Written By: - Date published: 8:16 am, September 21st, 2017 - 107 comments

Poll results! And, the most important thing we can do now is vote, and get out the vote, and remind people that only Labour and the Greens have committed to changing the government.

CB poll has Labour ahead and Greens safe

Written By: - Date published: 6:06 pm, September 14th, 2017 - 193 comments

Labour and Greens could govern alone.

The 3 News poll was a rogue.

TVNZ Poll – Labour opens 4 point lead

Written By: - Date published: 6:02 pm, September 7th, 2017 - 76 comments

Tonight’s TVNZ Poll shows Labour opening a 4 point lead over National.

National drop below 40% (well deserved).

It’s a new political world

Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 1st, 2017 - 77 comments

Labour has polled ahead of National for the first time in 12 years. It is only one poll and others may differ, but it has shattered a huge psychological barrier. We’re in a new political world. Time to go hard.

Labour’s momentum – Nat’s fall

Written By: - Date published: 9:12 am, August 18th, 2017 - 87 comments

What Jacinda Ardern has accomplished here is nothing short of astonishing. As a one-off bump in the polls it rivals Brash’s infamous Orewa speech. But Ardern’s rise is based on optimism and positivity rather than racist dog whistles.

Caution: Taking polling at face value may induce political whiplash

Written By: - Date published: 10:07 am, July 31st, 2017 - 114 comments

With all the speculation about polls, it’s time to have a discussion about polling and the cold, hard facts around it. Is it good news for the left?

Metiria’s gamble pays off in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, July 31st, 2017 - 157 comments

To what must be intense annoyance from angry right-wing pundits, Metiria Turei’s gamble seems to have paid off for The Greens, an indication (though mind that margin of error) that there could be a real appetite for a Corbyn-style political revolution this election.

Nats’ poll fall 2014 2017

Written By: - Date published: 7:26 am, July 12th, 2017 - 141 comments

Toby Manhire on The Spinoff has an interesting analysis of the recent Colmar Brunton poll. Comapred to the same poll in 2014 National are 5% down, with the Labour/Green alliance unchanged. The fall in the preferred PM rating from Key to English is huge. The Nats are highly vulnerable.

Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:20 pm, February 19th, 2017 - 111 comments

1 News: “The gap between National and the centre left block of Labour and the Greens has tightened in the wake of John Key’s departure as leader, according to the first major poll since his shock resignation.”

Labour Green MOU well received in poll

Written By: - Date published: 9:28 am, June 8th, 2016 - 149 comments

A modest bump for the Labour Green block in the latest Colmar Brunton. And what appears to be a shift from NZF to Labour after the MOU announcement. That might wipe the smile off Winston’s dial.

Labouring it.

Written By: - Date published: 6:13 pm, July 19th, 2015 - 179 comments

With overall confidence dropping and Labour being all over the headlines for the past week, Labour’s support…

TV One Colmar Brunton Poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:10 pm, July 19th, 2015 - 119 comments

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll is out. National drop one to 47%, Labour gain that point to lift to 32% , the Greens rise to 13% and NZ First are steady on 7 %. Consumer confidence plummets 9% points to just 36%.

Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: - Date published: 11:03 am, June 2nd, 2015 - 53 comments

I’ll cautiously call the previous Roy Morgan, which caused so much angst, an outlier.

Colmar poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:21 am, April 20th, 2015 - 142 comments

No significant changes in yesterdays TV1 / Colmar Brunton poll, with National unchanged on 49%, Labour unchanged on 31%, and all changes within the margin of error.

Key’s support ebbing

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 am, September 12th, 2014 - 67 comments

National have gambled everything on “Team Key”. They may yet wish that they hadn’t.

Of polls and elections

Written By: - Date published: 11:07 am, May 26th, 2014 - 116 comments

Two new polls are out and the Government has enjoyed a post budget bounce. But when the post budget glow wears off and the inevitable seepage of support starts what will National do then?

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