Written By: - Date published: 12:01 pm, January 28th, 2022 - 16 comments
Because I love accurate comparisons and because the media typically do a shit job of looking at political polls, I decided that a look backwards to a comparable poll in the last parliament, Colmar Brunton early Feb 2019. National has lost support to Act but the overall conservative vote has minimal change. The Greens haven’t died. Labour looks very likely to lead the parliament.
Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments
Poll analysis and modelling results: Is Colmar Brunton “the real rogue?” Who’s likely in and out for National, Labour, and the Greens on this poll result?
Written By: - Date published: 6:21 pm, October 14th, 2019 - 121 comments
The October TV One/Colmar Brunton poll is out. Like yesterday’s devastating TV3 poll result showing National not waving, but drowning, today’s poll confirms that NZ is still heading toward an historic Labour/Green Government, despite the Tories flirting with numbers in the high fifties.
UPDATE: Some weirdness with the numbers: they add up to 101% and 47% does not actually give National 60 seats, so the ‘Poll Says National Can Govern’ headlines are a wee bit optimistic. TRP.
Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, April 15th, 2019 - 50 comments
The latest 1 News Colmar Brunton Poll is out and it says that a Labour/Greens Government is what NZ wants. Oh, and we quite like Jacinda Ardern.
Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments
In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments
The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?
Written By: - Date published: 4:00 pm, April 18th, 2018 - 78 comments
In this third edition of Pollwatch, we note Simon Bridges’ leap out of the gate to a hiss and fizzle, and with Roy Morgan still on an unexplained hiatus, our second poll of the year has arrived from Colmar Brunton, with the government’s support down very slightly, but its support partners both in a much more stable position.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments
In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.
Written By: - Date published: 1:08 pm, December 10th, 2017 - 88 comments
The latest Colmar Brunton results just released suggests that support for the Government parties is stable and support for Jacinda Ardern is surging.
Written By: - Date published: 8:16 am, September 21st, 2017 - 107 comments
Poll results! And, the most important thing we can do now is vote, and get out the vote, and remind people that only Labour and the Greens have committed to changing the government.
Written By: - Date published: 6:06 pm, September 14th, 2017 - 193 comments
Labour and Greens could govern alone.
The 3 News poll was a rogue.
Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 1st, 2017 - 77 comments
Labour has polled ahead of National for the first time in 12 years. It is only one poll and others may differ, but it has shattered a huge psychological barrier. We’re in a new political world. Time to go hard.
Written By: - Date published: 9:12 am, August 18th, 2017 - 87 comments
What Jacinda Ardern has accomplished here is nothing short of astonishing. As a one-off bump in the polls it rivals Brash’s infamous Orewa speech. But Ardern’s rise is based on optimism and positivity rather than racist dog whistles.
Written By: - Date published: 10:07 am, July 31st, 2017 - 114 comments
With all the speculation about polls, it’s time to have a discussion about polling and the cold, hard facts around it. Is it good news for the left?
Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, July 31st, 2017 - 157 comments
To what must be intense annoyance from angry right-wing pundits, Metiria Turei’s gamble seems to have paid off for The Greens, an indication (though mind that margin of error) that there could be a real appetite for a Corbyn-style political revolution this election.
Written By: - Date published: 7:26 am, July 12th, 2017 - 141 comments
Toby Manhire on The Spinoff has an interesting analysis of the recent Colmar Brunton poll. Comapred to the same poll in 2014 National are 5% down, with the Labour/Green alliance unchanged. The fall in the preferred PM rating from Key to English is huge. The Nats are highly vulnerable.
Written By: - Date published: 6:20 pm, February 19th, 2017 - 111 comments
1 News: “The gap between National and the centre left block of Labour and the Greens has tightened in the wake of John Key’s departure as leader, according to the first major poll since his shock resignation.”
Written By: - Date published: 9:28 am, June 8th, 2016 - 149 comments
A modest bump for the Labour Green block in the latest Colmar Brunton. And what appears to be a shift from NZF to Labour after the MOU announcement. That might wipe the smile off Winston’s dial.
Written By: - Date published: 6:10 pm, July 19th, 2015 - 119 comments
The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll is out. National drop one to 47%, Labour gain that point to lift to 32% , the Greens rise to 13% and NZ First are steady on 7 %. Consumer confidence plummets 9% points to just 36%.
Written By: - Date published: 6:21 am, April 20th, 2015 - 142 comments