Written By: - Date published: 12:27 am, October 20th, 2020 - 47 comments
The 2020 election was more than just a victory for Labour and more than a crushing defeat for the National Party (New Zealand’s main centre-right political party). This result marks a significant watershed in New Zealand politics which will likely have implications long after this parliamentary term.
Written By: - Date published: 11:05 am, December 20th, 2019 - 21 comments
Democracy is a precious thing, and not something that can be taken for granted. Having an electoral system where every vote matters is crucial to creating a decent society. It is time that the UK started seriously debating electoral reform and how to improve its democratic systems.
Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]
Written By: - Date published: 6:44 pm, September 13th, 2018 - 82 comments
Oh dear. The Winston Peters led governing coalition has completely collapsed and thank God Simon Bridges is there to pick up the pieces. I warned you this would happen! And look! Over there … the sky is falling. Falling, I tells ya!
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments
In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.
Written By: - Date published: 11:16 am, October 22nd, 2017 - 21 comments
Written By: - Date published: 9:16 am, October 21st, 2017 - 61 comments
National CRUSH puny parties! Why National no mates?
Written By: - Date published: 8:57 am, October 6th, 2017 - 35 comments
The special vote count should be out at 2pm tomorrow. The mathematically plausible scenarios are either good, or very good, for the left.
Written By: - Date published: 7:56 am, September 30th, 2017 - 88 comments
You know that old saying about how generals always prepare to fight the last war? That’s National and their FPP election campaign (hello creepy joggers). There will be a certain poetic justice played out if Labour’s MMP campaign is the winner in the end.
Written By: - Date published: 2:43 pm, September 25th, 2017 - 40 comments
The papers are full of the expected establishment hysteria today, trying to paint the election as a done deal for the Nats (I wonder what Peters will make of that?). Professor Richard Shaw: “Nobody’s won the election yet. The people who won the election are the people who form the government.”
Written By: - Date published: 9:17 am, September 24th, 2017 - 44 comments
The fact that we could even hope for a Labour Green win is remarkable – was inconceivable just 2 months ago. Labour’s surge has been incredible. Thank you Jacinda Ardern, and thank you all who worked so hard! Now it’s up to MMP…
Written By: - Date published: 7:20 am, September 22nd, 2017 - 101 comments
On current polling the next government could be Labour + Green + NZF. That would annoy a lot of Nats if they have more votes than Labour alone, but that’s how MMP works. English lied about this in the last debate, but apparently has since walked it back.
Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 15th, 2017 - 56 comments
Labour’s surge under Jacinda Ardern has us all talking about Labour vs National – who’s in front. Exciting stuff, but there is something even more important going on. The mood represented by Labour + Green + the plurality of NZF supporters. The winds of change are blowing.
Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, July 31st, 2017 - 157 comments
To what must be intense annoyance from angry right-wing pundits, Metiria Turei’s gamble seems to have paid off for The Greens, an indication (though mind that margin of error) that there could be a real appetite for a Corbyn-style political revolution this election.
Written By: - Date published: 7:41 am, February 21st, 2017 - 15 comments
Idiot/Savant suggests removing the 5% threshold and introducing preferential voting for electorate seats.
Written By: - Date published: 11:12 am, May 12th, 2016 - 20 comments
A post to illustrate how fixed term parliaments work…off the back of some really woeful reportage.
Written By: - Date published: 12:11 pm, May 9th, 2015 - 43 comments
Written By: - Date published: 10:24 am, September 23rd, 2014 - 216 comments
David Cunliffe has just announced that he will seek to continue as leader of the Labour Party and will let the party decide. A contest for the leadership is almost inevitable.
Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, July 3rd, 2013 - 115 comments
Key is clearly getting nervous about the implosion of his possible electoral partners in 2014. He’s running the “largest party has a moral mandate to govern line” again. It’s destabilising, and it’s rubbish, here’s why…
Written By: - Date published: 9:30 am, May 16th, 2013 - 29 comments
According to Labour: “Judith Collins has claimed that she ‘consulted’ with political parties but was unable to reach consensus. There was absolutely no consultation.”
Written By: - Date published: 12:04 pm, March 12th, 2013 - 40 comments
The Bill to Mondayise holidays seems certain to progress. A nice win for David Clark and for Labour, and an all too rare example of MMP working as it should.