Posts Tagged ‘MMP’

Pollwatch: 11/02/2019

Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments

Roy morgan 11/02/2019: 63.2% chance outright labour govt, 36.8% chance labour-green coalition

Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]

Coalition Problems? Tell ’em they’re Dreaming!

Written By: - Date published: 6:44 pm, September 13th, 2018 - 82 comments

Oh dear. The Winston Peters led governing coalition has completely collapsed and thank God Simon Bridges is there to pick up the pieces. I warned you this would happen! And look! Over there … the sky is falling. Falling, I tells ya!

Pollwatch: Reid Research, 27/05/2018

Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 27th, 2018 - 88 comments

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out, and it continues to be less than stellar news for the opposition, but also for New Zealand First.

Poll Watch: Colmar Brunton Poll 2018-2-19

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments

In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.

Poll Watch: Reid Research Poll 2018-1-31

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, February 1st, 2018 - 158 comments

Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.

Turns out voters were pretty chill about it

Written By: - Date published: 11:16 am, October 22nd, 2017 - 21 comments

DPF personifies why the Nats lost and why they will lose again

Written By: - Date published: 9:16 am, October 21st, 2017 - 61 comments

National CRUSH puny parties! Why National no mates?

Specials tomorrow

Written By: - Date published: 8:57 am, October 6th, 2017 - 35 comments

The special vote count should be out at 2pm tomorrow. The mathematically plausible scenarios are either good, or very good, for the left.

Resistance is futile …

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, October 2nd, 2017 - 100 comments

The Standard regular Incognito writes about the unique voice the Greens bring to NZ politics and why a coalition deal with National would be the end of that.

Nats fought a FPP campaign and blew it – Labour went with MMP…

Written By: - Date published: 7:56 am, September 30th, 2017 - 88 comments

You know that old saying about how generals always prepare to fight the last war? That’s National and their FPP election campaign (hello creepy joggers). There will be a certain poetic justice played out if Labour’s MMP campaign is the winner in the end.

Establishment hysteria and MMP

Written By: - Date published: 2:43 pm, September 25th, 2017 - 40 comments

The papers are full of the expected establishment hysteria today, trying to paint the election as a done deal for the Nats (I wonder what Peters will make of that?). Professor Richard Shaw: “Nobody’s won the election yet. The people who won the election are the people who form the government.”

Thank you Jacinda Ardern!

Written By: - Date published: 9:17 am, September 24th, 2017 - 44 comments

The fact that we could even hope for a Labour Green win is remarkable – was inconceivable just 2 months ago. Labour’s surge has been incredible. Thank you Jacinda Ardern, and thank you all who worked so hard! Now it’s up to MMP…

An MMP government

Written By: - Date published: 7:20 am, September 22nd, 2017 - 101 comments

On current polling the next government could be Labour + Green + NZF. That would annoy a lot of Nats if they have more votes than Labour alone, but that’s how MMP works. English lied about this in the last debate, but apparently has since walked it back.

Polls – focus on the horse race misses the huge mood for change

Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 15th, 2017 - 56 comments

Labour’s surge under Jacinda Ardern has us all talking about Labour vs National – who’s in front. Exciting stuff, but there is something even more important going on. The mood represented by Labour + Green + the plurality of NZF supporters. The winds of change are blowing.

Metiria’s gamble pays off in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, July 31st, 2017 - 157 comments

To what must be intense annoyance from angry right-wing pundits, Metiria Turei’s gamble seems to have paid off for The Greens, an indication (though mind that margin of error) that there could be a real appetite for a Corbyn-style political revolution this election.

NRT: Two ideas to get rid of electorate deals

Written By: - Date published: 7:41 am, February 21st, 2017 - 15 comments

Idiot/Savant suggests removing the 5% threshold and introducing preferential voting for electorate seats.

What’s the deal? There isn’t one.

Written By: - Date published: 7:17 am, February 17th, 2017 - 131 comments

What are the Greens up to then?

Welsh Assembly.

Written By: - Date published: 11:12 am, May 12th, 2016 - 20 comments

A post to illustrate how fixed term parliaments work…off the back of some really woeful reportage.

Happy Mondayised holiday!

Written By: - Date published: 6:22 am, February 8th, 2016 - 28 comments

Thanks to David Clark, to Grant Robertson, to Labour, and to those who supported the bill…

The difference an electoral system makes

Written By: - Date published: 12:11 pm, May 9th, 2015 - 43 comments

fpp-vs-proportional-uk-2015

Winston takes Northland

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 pm, March 28th, 2015 - 309 comments

Is anyone else experiencing a bit of political shellshock?

Labour’s leadership

Written By: - Date published: 10:24 am, September 23rd, 2014 - 216 comments

David Cunliffe has just announced that he will seek to continue as leader of the Labour Party and will let the party decide.  A contest for the leadership is almost inevitable.

Moral mandates

Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, July 3rd, 2013 - 112 comments

Key is clearly getting nervous about the implosion of his possible electoral partners in 2014. He’s running the “largest party has a moral mandate to govern line” again. It’s destabilising, and it’s rubbish, here’s why…

Labour on MMP “consultation”

Written By: - Date published: 9:30 am, May 16th, 2013 - 28 comments

According to Labour: “Judith Collins has claimed that she ‘consulted’ with political parties but was unable to reach consensus. There was absolutely no consultation.”

NRT: MMP review: Running down the clock

Written By: - Date published: 10:55 am, April 26th, 2013 - 1 comment

I/S at No Right Turn on the strange disappearance of the Electoral Commission recommendations on MMP. Soon it will be too late to have changes in place for 2014…

Mondayising win!

Written By: - Date published: 12:04 pm, March 12th, 2013 - 40 comments

The Bill to Mondayise holidays seems certain to progress. A nice win for David Clark and for Labour, and an all too rare example of MMP working as it should.

Geddis: Is someone trying to game the MMP review?

Written By: - Date published: 11:04 am, August 24th, 2012 - 31 comments

The excellent Andrew Geddis at Pundit has an interesting post up this morning. You should head on over there and check it out. Here are a couple of extracts to get you started…

MMP review

Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, August 13th, 2012 - 87 comments

The first proposal paper from the Electoral Commission on the MMP review is due out soon.

Updated with the early coverage.

Labour moving to the right?

Written By: - Date published: 11:09 am, March 18th, 2012 - 153 comments

Many commentators have interpreted David Shearer’s recent speech as signaling a “move to the right”. I think it’s too early to tell. But if it’s true, I think it’s good news for lefties…

NRT on Democracy 101

Written By: - Date published: 12:31 pm, November 29th, 2011 - 20 comments

No Right Turn takes Key to task on his perception of a “large majority”.

Debate on the electoral system

Written By: - Date published: 12:45 pm, October 20th, 2011 - 2 comments

RNZ’s Insight is hosting a debate on the Electoral System Referendum in Wellington.  It’s an excellent panel.  If you want to be part of the audience, get along to Te Papa’s Sounding’s Theatre at 6pm next Wednesday, October 26.

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