Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]
Written By: - Date published: 6:44 pm, September 13th, 2018 - 82 comments
Oh dear. The Winston Peters led governing coalition has completely collapsed and thank God Simon Bridges is there to pick up the pieces. I warned you this would happen! And look! Over there … the sky is falling. Falling, I tells ya!
Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 27th, 2018 - 88 comments
The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out, and it continues to be less than stellar news for the opposition, but also for New Zealand First.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, February 20th, 2018 - 47 comments
In this second edition of Pollwatch, we note the impact of Jacinda Ardern at the height of her powers, track the likelyhood of current government support partners of clearing our high Party Vote threshold, and note the small likelyhood that English’s eventual successor will have of sneaking into the Beehive even if we held a snap election right now.
Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, February 1st, 2018 - 158 comments
Newshub recently released the latest poll they commissioned from Reid Research. Let’s dive into some analysis of what this means.
Written By: - Date published: 9:16 am, October 21st, 2017 - 61 comments
National CRUSH puny parties! Why National no mates?
Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, October 2nd, 2017 - 100 comments
The Standard regular Incognito writes about the unique voice the Greens bring to NZ politics and why a coalition deal with National would be the end of that.
Written By: - Date published: 7:56 am, September 30th, 2017 - 88 comments
You know that old saying about how generals always prepare to fight the last war? That’s National and their FPP election campaign (hello creepy joggers). There will be a certain poetic justice played out if Labour’s MMP campaign is the winner in the end.
Written By: - Date published: 2:43 pm, September 25th, 2017 - 40 comments
The papers are full of the expected establishment hysteria today, trying to paint the election as a done deal for the Nats (I wonder what Peters will make of that?). Professor Richard Shaw: “Nobody’s won the election yet. The people who won the election are the people who form the government.”
Written By: - Date published: 9:17 am, September 24th, 2017 - 44 comments
The fact that we could even hope for a Labour Green win is remarkable – was inconceivable just 2 months ago. Labour’s surge has been incredible. Thank you Jacinda Ardern, and thank you all who worked so hard! Now it’s up to MMP…
Written By: - Date published: 7:20 am, September 22nd, 2017 - 101 comments
On current polling the next government could be Labour + Green + NZF. That would annoy a lot of Nats if they have more votes than Labour alone, but that’s how MMP works. English lied about this in the last debate, but apparently has since walked it back.
Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, September 15th, 2017 - 56 comments
Labour’s surge under Jacinda Ardern has us all talking about Labour vs National – who’s in front. Exciting stuff, but there is something even more important going on. The mood represented by Labour + Green + the plurality of NZF supporters. The winds of change are blowing.
Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, July 31st, 2017 - 157 comments
To what must be intense annoyance from angry right-wing pundits, Metiria Turei’s gamble seems to have paid off for The Greens, an indication (though mind that margin of error) that there could be a real appetite for a Corbyn-style political revolution this election.
Written By: - Date published: 7:17 am, February 17th, 2017 - 131 comments
What are the Greens up to then?
Written By: - Date published: 6:22 am, February 8th, 2016 - 28 comments
Thanks to David Clark, to Grant Robertson, to Labour, and to those who supported the bill…
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 pm, March 28th, 2015 - 309 comments
Is anyone else experiencing a bit of political shellshock?
Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, July 3rd, 2013 - 112 comments
Key is clearly getting nervous about the implosion of his possible electoral partners in 2014. He’s running the “largest party has a moral mandate to govern line” again. It’s destabilising, and it’s rubbish, here’s why…
Written By: - Date published: 10:55 am, April 26th, 2013 - 1 comment
I/S at No Right Turn on the strange disappearance of the Electoral Commission recommendations on MMP. Soon it will be too late to have changes in place for 2014…
Written By: - Date published: 11:04 am, August 24th, 2012 - 31 comments
The excellent Andrew Geddis at Pundit has an interesting post up this morning. You should head on over there and check it out. Here are a couple of extracts to get you started…
Written By: - Date published: 11:09 am, March 18th, 2012 - 153 comments
Many commentators have interpreted David Shearer’s recent speech as signaling a “move to the right”. I think it’s too early to tell. But if it’s true, I think it’s good news for lefties…
Written By: - Date published: 12:45 pm, October 20th, 2011 - 2 comments
RNZ’s Insight is hosting a debate on the Electoral System Referendum in Wellington. It’s an excellent panel. If you want to be part of the audience, get along to Te Papa’s Sounding’s Theatre at 6pm next Wednesday, October 26.