Written By: - Date published: 8:28 pm, July 20th, 2011 - 110 comments
TV1’s poll on Sunday was supposedly curtains for CGT, so what does it mean that the latest Roy Morgan has the Nats down 5% and the Left in striking range of an upset win? It means don’t draw instant conclusions linking one poll to one policy (although it must be tempting when you’ve spent $30K getting the numbers) – watch the trends.
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, June 21st, 2011 - 27 comments
The Roy Morgan Polls are all over the place, at the moment, and the latest one has the Left at the bottom of the roller coaster. In other news, the Readers Digest survey of most trusted individuals, which this year is dominated by scientists!
Written By: - Date published: 9:12 pm, May 23rd, 2011 - 28 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is not good reading for the political left. But it’s not quite time to despair yet!
Written By: - Date published: 9:32 pm, April 8th, 2011 - 49 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows little impact from the Darren Hughes affair to date. We still don’t know how the investigation will play out but the poll suggests dithering leadership matters less than economic fundamentals. The big news, though, is that New Zealand First would be back under these numbers.
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, February 21st, 2011 - 78 comments
It can be depressing to see a week of the government on the ropes and then polls showing National with an apparently commanding lead. But lets go beyond the shallow analysis offered by the talking heads and look at the trends. The Left has more than halved the Right’s lead since its peak. The question is: can the Left close the remaining gap in time?
Written By: - Date published: 12:56 pm, February 5th, 2011 - 65 comments
OK, that title is pure spin. National has dropped from 55% to 49% in the latest Roy Morgan, and Labour’s up from 29% to 34.5%. But that just shows the last poll was a rogue. Now, normal transmission, and National’s decline, has resumed. When you look at the Nat/ACT and Lab/Green/New Zealand First potential coalitions – the race is tight and closing fast.
Written By: - Date published: 1:00 pm, December 22nd, 2010 - 37 comments
It’s First Past the Post thinking to look at the polling gap between National and Labour and conclude National will romp home. MMP is here and set to stay – it means the coalition with the support of a majority of MPs governs, not necessarily the largest party. The final Roy Morgan of the year lets us look at the trends in support for Left and Right.
Written By: - Date published: 11:38 am, November 10th, 2010 - 45 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows confidence in government plummeted during the Hobbit debacle. It shows confidence in government falling to a new low for Key’s administration. At the beginning of the year, nearly three-quarters of the population agreed the country was heading in the right direction. Barely 50% do now.
Written By: - Date published: 8:17 pm, October 13th, 2010 - 102 comments
Nat 49.5%, Lab 36.5%, Gre 8%, NZF 2.5%, MAO 2.5% ACT 0.5%
Highest Labour vote since Helen Clark was PM. Lowest ACT vote in many many years. Key’s still holding the Nats up high.
Written By: - Date published: 10:47 am, May 20th, 2010 - 47 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll makes for grim reading for the government ahead of what promsies to be an unpopular budget. Confidence in government is now bouncing between net 25% and 30% positive. That compares to 55% last October. Put that another way: 1 in 8 Kiwis have gone from having a postive view of this government to a negative one in the past half year, and it’s showing up in the party’s numbers.
Written By: - Date published: 12:42 am, April 12th, 2010 - 18 comments
Smile and wave is easy enough in the first year, people are willing to give you a chance. But at some point, the public expects a government to get to work tackling the big problems. National displays no will or ability to do so. In just two months, 1 in 8 Kiwis has switched from thinking the country is heading in the right direction under Key to thinking things are getting worse.
Written By: - Date published: 10:04 am, June 9th, 2009 - 2 comments
Saw this strange article from NZPA last night. National may be behind in the polls for the upcoming Mt Albert by-election, but nationwide it still maintaining high levels of popularity. The latest nationwide Roy Morgan poll recorded unchanged support for National with 52 per cent and Labour down half a percentage point to 31 per […]
Written By: - Date published: 9:29 am, February 20th, 2009 - 34 comments
Well, that’s slightly better. The new Roy Morgan poll has the Nats on 48.5%, still a solid result but well down on the TV3 poll on Wednesday that had them on 60. The numbers are: National 48.5% Labour 32% Greens 8.5% Maori 3.5% ACT 2.5% NZ First 1.5% Progressives 1% United 0.5% Others 2% Obviously […]
Written By: - Date published: 10:15 am, November 7th, 2008 - 41 comments
The final Roy Morgan poll is out and the Left (LPG+M) has it by a nose with 62 seats out of a 122 seat Parliament. The Greens will be happy with 10% – that puts them in a strong negotiating position after the election and gives a 17 seat voting bloc in conjunction with the […]
Written By: - Date published: 2:49 pm, October 24th, 2008 - 83 comments
And the polls keep coming. Today’s Roy Morgan poll has Labour down 5.5% and National up slightly, while the Greens rise to an astonishing 11.5% – that’s 15 MPs. NZ First drops just below the threshold to 4.5%. Under this scenario an LPG+M arrangement is possible, but only just, with 61 seats out of 121 […]
Written By: - Date published: 2:09 pm, October 10th, 2008 - 66 comments
The new Roy Morgan poll is out today. It was taken between Sep 22 and October 5, and has National’s vote collapsing by 7 points to 40.5%, Labour up one to 37.5 and the Greens shooting up to 9. So very good news for the Left. I’d be careful about reading too much into this […]
Written By: - Date published: 12:52 pm, September 19th, 2008 - 92 comments
If the latest Roy Morgan poll is to be believed, John Key’s big gamble of ruling Winston Peters out of any future coalition may well turn out to be one of the stupidest plays in New Zealand’s political history. According to the poll, NZ First has increased its hypothetical share of the vote to 5%, […]
Written By: - Date published: 5:14 pm, September 4th, 2008 - 87 comments
John Key’s impatience to get the election over and done with makes a lot more sense in light of today’s Roy Morgan poll. The poll has Labour up 4 to 38%, the Greens up to 8% and National down 3.5 to 44.5% – well out of their comfort zone given their lack of viable coalition […]
Written By: - Date published: 9:44 am, May 23rd, 2008 - 22 comments
There was a Roy Morgan poll out yesterday showing a gap of 14 between National and Labour. Party support varied only slightly from the previous Morgan poll. The Morgan poll differs hugely from the controversial Fairfax poll from a week or so ago which showed a gap of 27 points. This just goes to show […]