New Zealand is seeing a strong, business-led recovery.
Our interlinked trading partner Australia expects to see similar growth of around 4% over the course of 2022, well above the long term trend.
While there continues to be some COVID-related uncertainty, New Zealand and Australia share some of the highest vaccine protections of anywhere in the world, and the New Zealand ‘traffic light’ system provides for clear operating signals for social and economic behaviours at changing threat levels.
The unemployment and underemployment rate look set to continue to stay into the low 3% with skills shortages almost across the board. That is multi-decade rare.
Homeowners and businesses are well in front of their mortgage payments with low mortgagee and bankruptcy levels.
Coming out of 2021’s lockdowns, consumers are spending, shopping, eating out and taking holidays.
Business confidence and conditions are improving, and most businesses are in good shape. Our constraints are not enough materials and not enough people to do the work. These are markers of a boom.
When the September 2021 quarter figures are released we will see a decline in economic activity, but what happened last time is an even greater spike upwards. 2022 is all about shifting from response to recovery.
Farming in particular dairying is set to receive farmgate prices not seen for decades. With a price closing in on $9 per kilo, the economy is about to get a $13b injection just from Fonterra alone.
Sport – a massive tourism booster – is set to push tourists our way as we host the world cups for Cricket, Rugby and football.
The film industry is accelerating, with the single largest film studio in the southern hemisphere greenlighted for Wanaka.
Housing developments are increasingly masterplanned for quality and well integrated, as the economic strength of Auckland radiates outward.
Sleepyhead Estate | Housing development in Ohinewai, North Waikato.
Motorway congestion is down but trucks for trade and shopping are increasing fast as online shopping and working is up, making for a much more efficient and less energy-wasteful society.
There are plenty of secondary policy questions that flow out of this – like how will government better redistribute this wealth, build high-productivity worker capacity, and how will government spend all the tax it’s making.
But they are primarily around the question: what do you do with success?
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