The Bullshit

84 comments on “The Bullshit ”

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1. lurgee 1

   12 September 2017 at 8:45 pm

   Toughen up, lad, it’s only an effin’ poll. They go one way, they go the other.

   Did anyone expect Labour would gain ground in every single poll?

   If you can keep your head when all around you are losing theirs …
   • John Long 1.1

     12 September 2017 at 9:00 pm

     Exactly do not panic, get the young ones out to vote. I do think Labour need to think about blunting the attack lines around the Tax review thing like promise not to raise the total tax take without going back to the electorate, or say the focus will simply be on speculative house trading and everything else off the table .
     Labour will be much stronger irrespective and if it can’t form a government it can harras and attack
   • Bill 1.2

     12 September 2017 at 9:06 pm

     Think you’re missing the point Lurgee.

     There really is a lot of flux on “the left”. The reality is that most of any rise in the Green vote is going to come at the expense of NZ Labour.

     But any people currently humming or hah-ing between NZ Labour and Greens get ‘disappeared’ by that kind of poll reporting, meaning that an entirely false picture of how things are is presented back to us.

     Overseas polls report percentages both with and without undecideds included in calculations (UK comes to mind) . It makes a big difference in a presentation and any accompanying commentary/analysis.

     Given the somewhat unique situation in NZ right now, I’d suggest the difference between the two styles of poll reporting essentially results in the voting public being ‘led by the nose’
     • lurgee 1.2.1

       12 September 2017 at 10:09 pm

       I don’t recall any ‘Don’t Knows’ being reported in UK polling. The information is generally included in the data sheets that are released alongside the poll, but most companies don’t include Don’t Knows alongside the poll results, at least not for political polls – that I recall seeing, at any rate.

       Dunno if Reid research release their data sets alongside the polls, but to be honest I don’t think it is worth getting agitated about. Polling, let’s face it, has not been enjoying a purple patch. Clinton by miles, May by light years, and all that.

       I think the simplest explanation is that people have had a look at Ardern, and aren’t quite as enthused as they were a fortnight ago. She’s pleasant enough, but at the end of the day she’s just another politician, and she’s still banging the same old drum that Andrew Little and David Cunliffe and David Shearer and Phil Goff were banging, and the electorate didn’t feel the urge to march behind them, so why would they do it for her?
       • Bill 1.2.1.1

         13 September 2017 at 11:30 am

         And your last paragraph, that I believe to be “on the money”, would throw up an increase in “undecideds” as they lose ‘enthusiasm’ for so-called ‘Jacindamania’.

         What would (say) a 10% increase in undecideds between the last Reid poll and this one indicate? Certainly not a “the Greens might not make parliament” story line, yes?

         edit – the poll presentations I had in mind were all those independence ones from 2014. I’m reasonably sure it’s par for the course to include both calculations.
         • lurgee 1.2.1.1.1

           13 September 2017 at 5:13 pm

           Depends on who the new undecideds are, really.

           If they are the soft Nats or NZ 1sters, they’ll probably go back to the donor party quite happily.

           If they are former Greens, it’s likely some won’t go back to the Greens, if they were angered over the treatment of Turei. Some will probably stay at home.

           If they are new voters, Heaven only knows.

           AS for declaring undecideds, it would be a bit interesting (for spods like us) to look at how the British pollig companies treated undecideds prior to the election earlier this year, to see if there was a difference in how they were allocated or not allocated. That might – might – account for some of the wildl different polls that prefaced that fiasco.
2. mosa 2

   12 September 2017 at 8:50 pm

   GREAT TIMING THIS POLL TO COINCIDE WITH EARLY VOTING. !!!!!!
3. One Anonymous Bloke 3

   12 September 2017 at 8:50 pm

   Seriously? One bad poll result and you’re concerned the electorate might be manipulated into choosing a Liberal government?
   • Bill 3.1

     12 September 2017 at 9:02 pm

     Nope. I’ve commented on this kind of bullshit poll reporting before and how it skews shit. But one difference with this one is that people are currently casting their votes.
     • weka 3.1.1

       12 September 2017 at 9:04 pm

       That’s the one that concerns me (the early voting).
   • weka 3.2

     12 September 2017 at 9:03 pm

     You don’t think there is a risk that some people will vote Labour instead of Green on the basis of this? Or not vote at all? It’s not one poll, it’s a series of them.
4. James 4

   12 September 2017 at 8:50 pm

   LMFAO!
   • JC 4.1

     12 September 2017 at 11:08 pm

     “Please Explain” James….
     • marty mars 4.1.1

       13 September 2017 at 7:25 am

       Hes laughing his fucking arse off now but now isn’t e-day and I think he may need his arse back after that day.
5. Glenn 5

   12 September 2017 at 8:59 pm

   The chart that boggis the cat put up on the “gnashing of teeth” thread should be compulsory reading when these polls come up….
   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2017#Party_vote_and_key_events

   It just doesn’t fit any pattern. It smells like the turd in the picture.
   • Bill 5.1

     12 September 2017 at 9:04 pm

     From your link.

     Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of “don’t know” responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations

     It’s this that needs to be included in all polls instead of being smudged or discarded.
6. WILD KATIPO 6

   12 September 2017 at 9:02 pm

   … ” How many people wavering between The Greens and NZ Labour will now vote NZ Labour (possibly by as early as tomorrow morning) on the basis that the Green Party are dead in the water ? ” …

   Good spotting . We have all noticed lately how certain RWNJ’s have been obliquely attacking Labour by attacking the MOU , in particular , by attacking the Greens. I would say that’s what this is all about.

   You knock out the Greens you decrease Labours ability to form a govt.

   I suspect this is the chosen angle of attack. And we will get more and more of this from MSM , – particularly from anything to do with TV3 . This from DOUGAL over at The Daily Blog :
   …………………………………………….

   DOUGAL says:
   SEPTEMBER 12, 2017 AT 7:26 PM
   Mediaworks.

   The same company that Steven Joyce used to run.
   The same company that there National govt bailed out.
   The same company that kicked John Campbell of air.

   Hmmm do I trust their poll? Just like an 11bn hole, no I do not.

   Now, as for the fact Labour announced new competition to three and tvnz today, I think there is some extra incentive to put out a fake poll to try and prevent Labour from getting in.

   ………………………………………………

   It would appear a way was found to jerry rig the poll and influence public preferences…
   • mosa 6.1

     12 September 2017 at 9:05 pm

     + 100
   • lurgee 6.2

     12 September 2017 at 10:28 pm

     Is there any reason to doubt Reid Research’s integrity?

     As opposed to their methodology, which may or may not be honestly inaccurate.
     • gsays 6.2.1

       12 September 2017 at 10:42 pm

       I have no reason to distrust property valuers integrity.
       When in a business many moons ago, the restaurant had to be valued because a partner was leaving it.
       When the numbers came in, the client (me) expressed concern about how high the business was valued. Next day valuer back with a revised set of numbers, far more conducive to the client.
       • Antoine 6.2.1.1

         13 September 2017 at 1:22 am

         Bit of a problem for the CGT
     • WILD KATIPO 6.2.2

       13 September 2017 at 2:00 am

       Is there any reason to doubt Reid Research’s integrity?

       I’m more worried about the ample reason to doubt both Dildo Joyce and Dipper English’s integrity,… what , … with magical ‘ fiscal holes’ , and police giving Dipper a say in whats released to the public over the Todd Barclay affair…

       Frankly , … when you have a former owner of a TV station , and who has financially bailed out the same, with many media contacts, – , and who now is a senior minister in an ailing government coming up to an election , it would very , very easy to whisper in someones ear just what sort of results you desired…

       And as has been discussed, – by NOT including the ‘undecideds’ … will skew the results in favor of that govt to influence public opinion .

       I’d say that’s kind of dirty.

       Dirty Politics, … in fact.
       • mary_a 6.2.2.1

         13 September 2017 at 9:30 am

         WK @ (6.2.2) … As a former owner of the company, is it possible Joyce still has an investment, shares etc in Mediaworks? He has contacts, so still does have some influence. But it would be interesting if he’s retained a monetary interest as well.
7. boggis the cat 7

   12 September 2017 at 9:05 pm

   One poll, that may be anomalous, doesn’t mean much.

   I would expect the Greens to bounce back: from their present polling around five to six percent to around eight to ten percent of votes. If they crashed out below five percent, then that would be a problem for Labour — but Winston would probably be very pleased.

   Ultimately it is up to each party to sell their policies and vision.
   • Bill 7.1

     12 September 2017 at 9:18 pm

     How many soft NZ Labour voters who are contemplating a vote for The Greens replied “don’t know” and got excluded from that polls calculations?

     By contrast, how many potential National voters do you think are in any position to be ‘undecided’?

     And what impact do you think those two factors might have on the headline figures being reported?

     You’re aware it’s entirely possible that poll could be produced with those numbers and those headlines even if the combined Green and NZ Labour vote has not actually gone down, and even if both parties are experiencing an increase in solid or committed voter numbers, yes?
     • boggis the cat 7.1.1

       12 September 2017 at 9:36 pm

       My view is that this is the second outlier poll in sequence from them.

       So, either their methodology is significantly better or significantly worse. They were pretty good in 2014, but all polls were fairly close then. Boring election, with low turnout.

       What will change this year (I hope) is more motivated people turning up at the booths. That should scuttle National, unless Winston gets offered something exceptionally blingy (f.e. ‘Prime Minister Peters’ for at least a year). Of course, even NZF’s eventual vote share could get watered down if enough younger people can be bothered to get off their arses.
8. Pete 8

   12 September 2017 at 9:05 pm

   Where is Paula Bennett when you need her? Surely she must soon come riding into the scene on her white charger to save the world.
9. Macro 9

   12 September 2017 at 9:08 pm

   Totally support your comment there Bill, such reporting is disingenuous in the extreme. Furthermore, Reid Polling tends to over poll the “conservative” vote – note that the Conservative party gets an upward tick as does Act in this poll as opposed to other polls – and this particular poll is no exception.
   • boggis the cat 9.1

     12 September 2017 at 9:22 pm

     This particular polling organisation does appear to have a bias toward National, if you review their polling.

     I would wait for the Roy Morgan poll results, before accepting this one at face value. My guess is that Newshub / Reid Research have changed methodology, and ended up with skewed results.

     Also, it is a good point about ‘undecideds’. Polling isn’t complete without including that group. These people are what determines turnout — and turnout is a big factor.

     High turnout is always bad for Tories. Ardern has, I think, helped here by giving impetus for the marginal voters to bother turning out. The Greens have been stumbling, and I think this is what has drawn their polling down.
     • lprent 9.1.1

       13 September 2017 at 1:19 am

       Problem with this upcoming RM is because it covers 2 weeks, essentially over the same period as the last 4 polls, it probably isn’t going to tell us much. If it agrees with this last poll, then it either invalidates the other three or they picked up most of their data in the second week. If it agrees generally with the earlier three – well we don’t know if they picked up their data in the first week. If it does neither – then who in hell could tell.
10. Hanswurst 10

    12 September 2017 at 9:09 pm

    I don’t understand the reaction to this poll. Even assuming the numbers are 100% accurate, and comparing it to the previous Newshub poll, it looks as though National may have picked up some support from both Labour and NZ first, and Labour probably picked up some from the Greens. Allowing for the margins of error in both iterations of the poll, the poll could equally support there having been only a very small change, if any. The same goes for the two most recent Colmar Brunton polls. People seem to be reacting to tonight’s poll as though a four-point lead for Labour had suddenly morphed into a ten-point deficit, when in fact, all four polls are equally consistent with there having been very little shift at all.

    The reporting is another issue, of course, but that’s within the wider context of MSM reporting, and there is nothing extraordinary about how this poll is being reported. The reporting of polling always seems to be a case of looking at the numbers, asking the question, “If these numbers were accurate, what could they conceivably provide evidence for?”, and then trying to weave a dramatic narrative out of that.
11. ES Sceptic 11

    12 September 2017 at 9:10 pm

    Prior to the news, you lefties were congratulating yourselves in winning.

    After the news you Lefties are screaming “the polls wrong, the polls wrong”.

    Losers.

    [Uh-huh. You got a link to comments where I was being either congratulatory before the news or saying the actual poll numbers are wrong? I’ll save you the trouble. There are no such comments. Now either up your game or fuck off. Only warning] – Bill
    • WILD KATIPO 11.1

      12 September 2017 at 9:20 pm

      L0L !

      Yes we are screaming THIS poll is wrong , – or at least conducted in a dubious manner , – but the rest of the polls are about right.

      And so yes, we are still congratulating Labour and the Greens on their soon to be magnificent win against a corrupt and lying govt. And congratulating Kiwis on their wise choice as STILL being a decent lot that knows corruption and corporate cronyism when they see it. 🙂
    • Roy 11.2

      12 September 2017 at 9:29 pm

      Nah, Bill’s cleared it up. Not worried any more, we’ll see you twerps out.
      • lurgee 11.2.1

        12 September 2017 at 10:33 pm

        Nah, Bill’s cleared it up. Not worried any more, we’ll see you twerps out.

        The polls we like have the same methological flaw (if that is not putting it too strongly) as he identifies in the Reid Research poll, I believe.

        So that is false comfort.
        • WILD KATIPO 11.2.1.1

          13 September 2017 at 3:22 am

          Yes ,… but not THAT extreme as this one !

          Seems more like a bit of inserted dodgy techniques accidentally on purpose,… more like.
          • lurgee 11.2.1.1.1

            13 September 2017 at 5:39 am

            That’s ridiculous.
            • WILD KATIPO 11.2.1.1.1.1

              13 September 2017 at 7:00 am

              Ha ! says you.
              • lurgee …

                13 September 2017 at 5:05 pm

                Have you any evidence they ‘inserted dodgy techniques accidentally on purpose’?

                Or are you just desperate to repudiate the poll?

                You’ve abandoned all standards of integrity, and to cover it up you’re accusing Reid Research of doing the same.
    • Ben 11.3

      12 September 2017 at 9:32 pm

      Indeed, and gone full retard by stating that the poll is fake and rigged by TV3.

      The Green vote would be split and allow National + Act to govern. Oh the irony.
    • Robert Guyton 11.4

      13 September 2017 at 8:01 am

      Yours has been a fleeting and somewhat pointless visit to TS, ES Sceptic – spray and walk away, as they say.
12. Roy 12

    12 September 2017 at 9:17 pm

    Ahhh! So you’re saying if a responder hasn’t decided, they don’t get counted… And there’s more likely to be an undecided between LP and GP than NP and someone else.

    If the question was between {LP or GP} and {NP or ally}, the result would be way closer.

    Right?
    • Bill 12.1

      12 September 2017 at 9:32 pm

      Undecideds aren’t counted.
      Likely to be reasonably high proportion of undecideds contemplating between LP or GP, yes.

      No need to change the question. Just include the undecideds in the calculations that yield the headline percentages. It would paint a very different picture.
    • WILD KATIPO 12.2

      12 September 2017 at 9:32 pm

      There is a wider choice available in voting for the left, ‘progressive’ through to ‘center left’ ,… and also the left bloc party’s such as the Greens are larger than Nationals small satellites , so any movement among the left will see a more dramatic increase/decrease of %’s. The wild card was NZ First , but even they have had voters splinter off to either of the large party’s.

      And that shows a certain amount of consolidation and also as – yet undecideds,… and its the undecideds – particularity among the left bloc- that hasn’t been taken into consideration by this poll. However, when those undecideds finally vote on September 23rd , that is when we will see true consolidation. Up until then , – leaving out undecideds skews this poll’s result to look like something that isn’t in reality.
13. Colville 13

    12 September 2017 at 9:20 pm

    Have Labour woken up to the fact that life will be so much easier if the Greens slide under 5 percent?
    • Hanswurst 13.1

      12 September 2017 at 9:28 pm

      No, because the Greens over 5% is >5% for a Labour-led govt., whereas the Greens slightly below is approx. 5% left-wing vote down the gurgler. Life potentially gets easier for Labour if NZ First drops out of Parliament (which is also an outside possibility at this stage), but only if Labour + Green polls higher than National.
      • Colville 13.1.1

        12 September 2017 at 9:49 pm

        Hans
        I hope everyone on the left is as stupid as you
        • Incognito 13.1.1.1

          12 September 2017 at 10:51 pm

          No, not everyone; I’m more stupid than Hanswurst.

          Sorry to dash your hope – nothing personal – but the truth needs to be told more often after 9 years of truthiness by Sir John and Squire Joyce from National’s Roundtable.
    • DoublePlusGood 13.2

      12 September 2017 at 9:28 pm

      Why, because they’ll be in opposition again and won’t have to do any work for another 3 years?
    • Bill 13.3

      12 September 2017 at 9:33 pm

      Go back to my post of Oct 1. It was the argument being made back then on Jacinda’s first day as leader. I think they “get” that.
14. Delia 14

    12 September 2017 at 9:30 pm

    Last time National needed NZFirst it was a complete disaster and lead to nine years of a Labour govt, so good luck with that Bill and they say history never repeats.
    • Colville 14.1

      12 September 2017 at 9:51 pm

      Delia
      That is exactly why most Nat supporters would rather see a Labour government than a nat/nzf coalition
15. Glenn 15

    12 September 2017 at 9:53 pm

    The Spin-off believes the BS..

    “..Perhaps the recent Colmar Brunton polls, including the latest which gave Labour a four-point lead over National, were rogue (or “rouge” as National Party operative Bill Ralston put it earlier today). Maybe the truth is somewhere in between. It certainly seems safe to say that the momentum has ceased; those already getting suited up for a Labour victory parade have been stopped in their tracks.”

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/12-09-2017/dramatic-yes-it-bloody-is-national-surge-back-to-lead-in-new-paddy-poll/

    Thought they had more sense.
16. Bryan 16

    12 September 2017 at 9:57 pm

    Chill – Not a huge difference from last Reid poll. Another couple of polls will really show if the momentum for change continues. The Greenysteria about missing out is predicated on the mantra being preached that the Greens are a necessity for Labour to govern.
17. cleangreen 17

    12 September 2017 at 10:39 pm

    Wait till Morgan Poll comes out in a day or two.

    National have proven they will do anything to win including sending out false claims.

    National have done it – as many times this week that i cant remember.

    MSM doesn’t pick them up so their is some collusion here.

    I would not doubt if these national thugs would like to rig the electoral process also.

    So the polling practices of this ‘Reid’ poll represents’ those aged between mid 30’s & mid 40’s we have been told now by Wild Katipo as he was called by them recently so that is significant here.

    A generational targeted poll is a form of rigging the poll I venture to believe now, so we await the morgan poll now.

    National = masters of deception.
    • Pat 17.1

      12 September 2017 at 10:44 pm

      “So the polling practices of this ‘Reid’ poll represents’ those aged between mid 30’s & mid 40’s ”

      I hope you are not thinking that this poll was only taken of those in that particular demographic
      • lurgee 17.1.1

        13 September 2017 at 6:45 am

        cleangreen appears to hail from the paranoid / conspiratorial end of the spectrum.

        His / her assumption is based on a phone call from a polling company that asked to speak to someone in a particular age band. Ergo, conspiracy!

        Alas, there are plenty of LWNJs out there alongside the RWNJs.
        • WILD KATIPO 17.1.1.1

          13 September 2017 at 7:04 am

          And you’d still believe Jason Ede and Todd Barclay were good boys because their mums says so …

          By the way ,… where is he ?

          Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
          • lurgee 17.1.1.1.1

            13 September 2017 at 5:01 pm

            And you’d still believe Jason Ede and Todd Barclay were good boys because their mums says so …

            Can you provide evidence I ever held such an opinion?

            Or are you just making shit up on the internet?
        • cleangreen 17.1.1.2

          13 September 2017 at 8:40 am

          Lurgee is ‘lurching’ to the right again?
          • lurgee 17.1.1.2.1

            13 September 2017 at 5:02 pm

            I think the problem is you are lurching towards lunacy.
18. cleangreen 18

    12 September 2017 at 10:43 pm

    I want to see a Labour, Greens, NZ First Government now.

    http://www.historytoday.com/max-beloff/big-three-churchill-roosevelt-and-stalin-peace-and-war
    • WILD KATIPO 18.1

      12 September 2017 at 10:55 pm

      And , … even if that was not a misleading poll , … after 9 years there has just been far , far too many incidents of this govt and its lying dirty politics. The mere fact they are indulging in so many mind games and treating the general public as fools should be enough reason for them to go. For this govt , kicked off by John Key , … I have never seen so much blatant political skulduggery in this country before . Ever.
      • Ian 18.1.1

        12 September 2017 at 11:14 pm

        the economy has never been better. National has committed to reducing poverty, houses are being built as we speak and all the rivers in my patch of paradise are drinkable and swimmable. Perhaps labour and the greens have overcooked their campaign ? Attacking the people that grow your food so that you can govern them seems like something out of the dark ages. Particularly when you know jack shit about growing food.
        • WILD KATIPO 18.1.1.1

          12 September 2017 at 11:48 pm

          * ‘ The economy has never been better ‘.

          And yet there are around 42,000 homeless, family’s sleeping in cars because they cant afford rent, and wages so low that even the OECD reported on it. All of that as National arrogantly boasts of a ‘ Rockstar Economy ‘ .

          * ‘ National has committed to reducing poverty ‘.

          After 9 years they finally admitted their policy’s caused it.

          * ‘ Houses are being built as we speak ‘ .

          After 9 years they actually admitted there was a housing crisis and because its coming up to an election and wanted to look good so threw some lollies around.

          * ‘ All the rivers in my patch of paradise are drinkable and swimmable ‘.

          Yet indisputably others are far from swimmable and it was only until National were forced to admit it ( like most of their failings ) that again , because it is election year , … they make noises about cleaning them . Thus admitting they were lying about the true state of our waterways .

          * ‘ Attacking the people that grow your food so that you can govern them seems like something out of the dark ages ‘ .

          And so does carrying on like a rip shit and bust pioneer thinking you can cut trees and pollute even more waterways like you are still in the dark ages , -without a modern management plan in place acting and thinking the frontier will never end.
        • Pat 18.1.1.2

          12 September 2017 at 11:52 pm

          “Do we really think for instance, that we can address climate change without including farmers – the country’s main source of emissions – in the emissions trading scheme which, for all its imperfections, is the main way we currently have of addressing man-made changes to the climate. Even if right now, there is no absolute surefire solution for farm-generated emissions, a price signal would – arguably – motivate farmers to reduce them further in the meantime. After all, a tax on cigarettes isn’t expected to cure nicotine addiction overnight either, but it helps reduce the incidence of it. And yes, the price signal will cause some pain. It won’t work otherwise.”
          http://gordoncampbell.scoop.co.nz/2017/09/12/gordon-campbell-on-the-likely-path-of-hurricane-jacinda/

          well Ian do you think the rural sector should be exempt?
        • lprent 18.1.1.3

          13 September 2017 at 1:33 am

          FFS Ian – you really are a romantic and probably intellectually retarded.

          The Nats have had 9 years to reduce poverty. The only thing that they have succeeded in doing is increasing it massively. That is why they refuse to measure it by any normal standards.

          The Nats have had 9 years to fix the housing issues that they were complaining about in 2007. The only thing that they have succeeded in doing is increasing house prices massively. They have also managed to reduce the housing build rate to a fraction of what it was in 2007. Plus they increased nett migration. It means that they have dramatically increased overcrowding and homelessness. Again they don’t measure it because National ministers prefer to lie sure in the knowledge that they can’t be gainsayed.

          At present all the indications are that in the city with the biggest housing issues, this years residence builds are falling compared to last year.

          I last went down south 2 years ago. The rivers had largely disappeared down by the coast through most of Canterbury. The anglers I know say that it has been getting rapidly worse over the last 6 years. The hikers are saying the same about the rivers and streams that they used to go to. I see it in the rivers and streams that I used to know up here.

          Basically I think that you are probably simply lying. Both to yourself and to everyone else. Do you think that people don’t observe what has been happening around them?
        • Ross 18.1.1.4

          13 September 2017 at 6:29 am

          Ian, did you take the time to see the doco on TV3 last night? It was very illuminating and an indictment of this government. But I guess if you’re doing OK it doesn’t really matter if others are struggling. That was one of the conclusions of the doco – a lot of people seem to have a “me, me, me” mentality. It’s sad.

          https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/latest/96755666/housing-crisis-documentary-pulls-no-punches-on-eve-of-election
        • Hongi Ika 18.1.1.5

          13 September 2017 at 7:38 am

          … and the pigs are flying ?
    • Hongi Ika 18.2

      13 September 2017 at 7:36 am

      100%
19. boggis the cat 19

    12 September 2017 at 10:58 pm

    Something else to consider, when evaluating polls.

    Note that this particular poll also has NZF significantly down compared to the trend:

    Newshub Reid Research 6–11 Sep 2017 Nat 47.3 Lab 37.8 Grn 4.9 NZF 6.0
    Newsroom-SSI 4–6 Sep 2017 Nat 30 Lab 45 Grn 6 NZF 11
    One News Colmar Brunton 2–6 Sep 2017 Nat 39 Lab 43 Grn 5 NZF 9
    Listener: Bauer Media Insights 1-5 Sep 2017 Nat 38.9 Lab 41.1 Grn 6.7 NZF 8.9
    One News Colmar Brunton 26–30 Aug 2017 Nat 41 Lab 43 Grn 5 NZF 8
    Newshub Reid Research 22–30 Aug 2017 Nat 43.3 Lab 39.4 Grn 6.1 NZF 6.6
    (Polls in date order with most recent first. Previous Newshub / Reid Research poll last.)

    So there has been a consistent mismatch with both the National-Labour vote split and NZF being low. The latest poll seems to be even more anomalous than the previous, where it was not greatly aberrant.

    Edit: tried to get the data lined up, but this forum doesn’t seem to do tabs. Sorry.
    • ianmac 19.1

      12 September 2017 at 11:15 pm

      Tis fine boggis. Trends help.
      • boggis the cat 19.1.1

        13 September 2017 at 1:11 am

        Maybe a simplification is better.

        Ignoring the Newsroom-SSI data (as that also looks aberrant), here is the Labour – National trend across the polls:
        -4, +2, +2, +4, -10 (earliest and latest data is from Newshub / Reid Research).

        Here is the NZ First trend across the same:
        7, 8, 9, 9, 6.

        That swing to National within a week seems infeasibly large, and the NZ First polling seems off. I think it is just an outlier poll.
    • lprent 19.2

      13 September 2017 at 1:44 am

      Whitespace issues are a problem with non-proportional fonts anyway. The HTML ‘code’ tag ( https://www.w3schools.com/tags/tag_code.asp ) will give a monospaced font. But all HTML removes sequential whitespace down to a single space.

      You can use non-breaking spaces ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-breaking_space ) between ‘code’ tags, but to make it work you’d need to do a lot of typing and it will be unreadable.

      HTML tables work ( https://www.w3schools.com/html/html_tables.asp ). But it is a lot of work unless you do it in an editor that allows you to paste tables as HTML text into these comment boxes.
20. Katipo 20

    13 September 2017 at 12:43 am

    Q: On election night last time when the counting started and all the advanced votes were shown (I’m pretty sure it was in one big whack), how much then did the party percentages differ from the final result?
21. Sanctuary 21

    13 September 2017 at 6:51 am

    The purpose behind the reporting of last night poll was to bump the ratings of TV3 and give Patrick Gower something “dramatic” to rant about.
22. cleangreen 22

    13 September 2017 at 7:09 am

    If this poll was ‘doctored’ by Joyce, (I have assessed) there is no way to confirm accuracy .
    We contacted some of these polling companies last year after we looked into the methods used by requesting details from them.

    Results of several polling companies was disturbing.

    We found, it is all based on trust that they are accurate nothing else.

    They confirmed there is no ability for them to conduct any rechecks of voters stated choices on any with these ‘polls’ they told us.

    The same applies to the general election, the electoral commission sent us an email confirming “there no no way we can confirm voters choice was recorded accurately.

    Overseas now many countries are using a ‘Voter Verified Audit Paper Trail’ (VVPAT) voting systems (even with the manual paper voting system we still use) as they use electronic counting of paper votes after we surrender our paper vote at the polling centre, and we have confirmed that is where false recording of votes can take place.

    Here in NZ they only do a sample manual rechecking of a fraction of all votes taken during our General Election System, so there are many flaws left inside our voting system today.

    https://www.verifiedvoting.org/resources/vvpr-legislation/

    So we asked the NZ Electoral Commission to switch to VVPAT and they refused so we are left to take their word for any poll conducted, so we must be wary of this lack of verification from any poll conducted now.

    James Shaw today on TV one said their ‘internal’ polling showed the election will be very tight and every vote will count for them’, so they will re-double their door knocking if able.
23. Stan Blanch 23

    13 September 2017 at 7:12 am

    LOL Jacindas take on water tax was ,”Er?…3 to 6 cents per lb of butterfat, I think?”
    …Farmer in ChCh on TV News rapidly translated it to $47,000.00 on his farm ‘…. LALA Land stuff. Wondering if Taxinda will get a make over…Pink cardigan twin set, few elocution lessons…a real briefing on tax matters?…
    • Psych nurse 23.1

      13 September 2017 at 7:47 am

      Well, said farmer must have a turnover of some 50 million then, can therefore afford to pay to clean up his pollution.
      • Carolyn_nth 23.1.1

        13 September 2017 at 8:01 am

        It seems to me, those most worried about increased taxes as those most able to pay – those more concerned about themselves than the good of society, it’s environment, and all who live there in.
        • WILD KATIPO 23.1.1.1

          13 September 2017 at 8:16 am

          Funny that ,…aint it….
24. gsays 24

    13 September 2017 at 9:42 am

    Great analysis Bill.
    This stuff can partially explain what went wrong with the polling around brexit and trumps election.
    Fairly irrelevant to me anyhows, I voted yesty.
25. Phil 25

    13 September 2017 at 12:22 pm

    Haha, someone got up on the wrong side of the bed.

    Now, pause for a second. The numbers being reported tally 100%.

    In other words, in an environment that obviously has a lot of undecided flux on the “not National” side of the voting ledger…

    I’ll type this slowly so that even you can keep up, Bill:

    If… someone… is… genuinely… undecided… this… close… to… an… election… there’s…a pretty… good… chance… they… won’t… vote.
    And… pollsters… don’t… just… shrug… their… shoulders… and… move… on…to… the… next… question… after… the… respondent… says… they’re… undecided.

    They probe further about the respondent’s propensity to vote, whether they voted in previous elections, whether there is a party they ‘lean’ in favour of, and so on, to help refine and narrow down the level of undecideds.

Links to post

1. Kia Kaha Lefties – it’s one poll « The Standard: posted on 13 September 2017 at 7:07 am

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