The election result

Written By: - Date published: 8:39 am, September 24th, 2017 - 361 comments
Categories: act, election 2017, greens, labour, maori party, national, Politics - Tags:

An election campaign can be judged by the election night party and I have been to a few.

For national elections the 2008 party was tinged with sadness, not only because Labour lost but Helen Clark decided to go.

The 2011 night was worse. Labour went from 34% to 28%. And even though Phil Goff in my view performed well he decided to go.

The 2014 was a debacle. David Cunliffe gave it his best but the party was hopelessly divided. The stuff that happened after the election result brought the party to its knees. Andrew Little’s work in restoring unity and cohesion is something that should always be acknowledged and remembered.

Last night’s party was bitter sweet. I have never been to an election night party where Labour increased its party vote by 11% points. Normally this would be reason for dancing on table tops. But even though Labour’s performance was dramatically improved there is still the nagging thought that it could have done even better and supplanted National.

Jacinda gave a great speech and is loved by the party. We are all ready to line up behind her and give it a go in three years time. She will be a great Prime Minister and the sooner the better.

The campaign emphasises the divide in New Zealand politics. Labour-Green are now a good 42% chunk of the electorate and after special votes are counted I expect them to head towards 44% of the vote. One more seat for the left is almost inevitable and two more seats are a possibility.

National dropped one point to 46%. But there will have been some movement of the vote as the Conservative’s 4% of the vote has disappeared. This probably mostly went to National which in turn shed votes to Labour.

They have held on to their poodle party and Epsom continues to get two MPs for the price of one. Seymour is ahead by 4,700 votes and David Parker gained 5,000 votes. Maybe Labour should consider not standing a candidate there next time.

It feels like we are in a country that is completely divided. One half want tax cuts and do not care about how their neighbour’s kids are doing and the other half think it is a travesty that we have a housing crisis, a poverty crisis and an environmental crisis and a Government practiced in doing the incrementalist absolute minimum about these issues.

The Maori electorates impressed me. They all swung towards Labour and Labour now has a lock on all the electorates. The Maori Party is no more. Clearly Tangata Whenua expect the Government to do something about child poverty and homelessness and can see through the lies that this Government has told. If only my fellow pakeha showed the same concern.

So where to from here?

We will now have a negotiation process where Winston Peters tries to get every benefit he can get. I expect him to put up a requirement that the Greens are not part of any Government and I personally believe that Labour should walk away from such a deal.

But I can understand the temptation to seek power. There is so much at stake.

For now we should celebrate that Labour has thirteen more Members of Parliament. And Lydia Sosene has a chance of making it in on the list after the specials are counted.

Labour’s new MPs are Duncan Webb, Priyanca Radhakrishnan, Jan Tinetti, Willow-Jean Prime, Kiri Allan, Ginny Andersen even though she lost Hutt South, Jo Luxton, Deborah Russell, Liz Craig, Marja Lubeck, Paul Eagle, Tamati Coffey, Jamie Strange, Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki, Kieran McAnulty, Angie Warren-Clark, Helen White, Greg O’Connor and Steph Lewis.

Electorate results will take some digesting. I was really confident that we would win Maungakiekie and Hutt South given the surge in polling but in both seats well established National identities held out against Labour candidates selected from outside of the electorate.

The Greens get the impressive Chlöe Swarbrick joining their ranks with the possibility of a further MP following the counting of special votes.

National gets one new MP, Nicola Willis in off the list. Although I would not unpack her bags yet if I was her.

And in New Zealand First Shane Jones returns.

So the next couple of weeks will be interesting. There are still the numbers for a Labour-Green-New Zealand First Government. No matter what happens to specials National and New Zealand First can form a Government quickly. But I don’t think that New Zealand First will rush into things.

Update: Sorry my calculations are too optimistic. Helen White is right on the cusp.

361 comments on “The election result”

  1. wtf is best I can come up with – sorry disadvantaged people life won’t get better in the short term, it is going to get worse. I’m so sorry.

    • joe90 1.1

      Morgan called it last night m – self-interest rules and looking after the other person is pretty low now in New Zealand’s priorities..

      http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/gareth-morgan-is-disappointed-with-selfish-new-zealanders.html

      • marty mars 1.1.1

        Yep fubar is the winner.

        I spose all the purists will be happy that the neolib party labour didn’t get in lol

        • joe90 1.1.1.1

          Couple of amendments and the boot would fit.

          http://www.urbandictionary.com/tags.php?tag=puritopians

        • rhinocrates 1.1.1.2

          I’ve come across purists who are “Still glad that Hilary lost”. “So you’re glad that Trump won then?” is greeted with silence or “Whatabout…”

          • boggis the cat 1.1.1.2.1

            The one does not preclude the other. You can be horrified about Trump but still glad that Clinton didn’t get in.

            The Democratic establishment are hideous, venal, and stupid — just as bad as the Republicans. Neither group is worthy of governing, but the system in the US is working as intended and forcing choice between options that are both unpalatable to most people there.

            Labour has taken a long time to realise that they aren’t a centre-right neoliberal party, and start moving policy back to the left. It isn’t possible to service the wealthiest while building a decent society, as anyone with even a small grasp on trends elsewhere in the world where this fiction has been employed will know. If there is no continuous effort to improve the lot of the community as a whole then earlier gains get eroded.

            • rhinocrates 1.1.1.2.1.1

              I’m afraid that becomes an angels-on-a-pinhead argument. A unicorn wasn’t running against Trump as an alternative. Objectively, there are things that Trump has done and is planning to do that the Democrats wouldn’t do. ‘They’re just as bad’ is not true and it is a cop-out. Consider the persecution of undocumented immigrants and the emboldening of the neonazis that has occurred. It’s very easy to pass sweeping, elitist judgements if you can pretend that you won’t be affected by what’s really happening now and consider those oppressed now as mere ideological cannon fodder in the battle for utopia.

              Minority members I’ve spoken to in the US have been quite blunt about the emo progressives: “Fuck your principles. Seriously,” to quote one.

              • boggis the cat

                Choosing your poison is still poison, and not really a choice that a rational person would make.

                Is Trump worse than Clinton? Almost certainly yes (although nobody can really tell what might gestate in Trump’s mind). Does that make voting for Clinton a ‘moral’ requirement? Hell no.

                Now that the worst result has come to pass, it is up to the American people to deal with it. The establishment is trying to ‘control’ Trump, and use him to achieve their ends — as they do with any office-holder. However there are now serious efforts to address the systemic problems: efforts that may not have occurred with another Clinton in power. In other words: some people are trying to ensure a future choice that isn’t a decision over which is a ‘lesser evil’.

                • greywarshark

                  Bloody boring USA. Can’t people shut up about it and it’s prize chimp, or chump, Trump?? I don’t care about the finer points of their election and latest spy drama/sitcom. NZ is good enough for me. We’ve got just about all of it. Let’s stick to our own country’s machinations and try and understand them. Perhaps we will be able to counter them next time.

                  • boggis the cat

                    New Zealand is next to irrelevant in the global context.

                    I care about all of us, sharing this planet, and like it or not the US is still the biggest poo-flinging monkey / imperial power. Their elections have a big impact on New Zealand, whereas ours have virtually no impact on the US.

                    There is nothing wrong with focusing locally, but always remember that one lunatic in Washington DC can render all of our efforts vain.

                    • greywarshark

                      boggis
                      True, that is why we need to obssessively take an interest in NZ’s welfare – because no-one else will. We hope to have some power for change in NZ but have little power here over the ‘follow the money’ empties, we have infinetismal? power over the USA.

      • Glenn 1.1.2

        Morgan gave the best speech of the night

        • mikesh 1.1.2.1

          He needed to. He did´t get much exposure from the mediaduring the campaign.

          • Draco T Bastard 1.1.2.1.1

            Morgan now needs to be making a large noise about the injustice of the high threshold.

            • Booker 1.1.2.1.1.1

              I sincerely hope that if the left block get to form the government (NZF/Greens/Labour) that they put in the place the recommendations of the electoral commission. There’s no getting around the fact that National gerrymandered this from the start by refusing to drop the 5% threshold.

            • RedLogix 1.1.2.1.1.2

              Neither Labour nor National will ever touch the threshold. If anything they’d probably like to go back to FFP if they could.

              Although what Labour really need to think about is their almost complete inability to win electorate seats. If these results were translated to FFP electorate only … National would not only have 90 plus seats; they’d be government forever.

              Well at least as long as the CCCP permits the facade to run.

              • Neither Labour nor National will ever touch the threshold.

                And neither labour nor National wanted proportional voting. IMO, National promised a referendum to get elected but were hoping that the campaign to keep FPP would then succeed. Just look at their attempt to get rid of it and put in place a much worse system.

                No, this isn’t something that the main parties want. It’s something that the electorate wants and one of the main parties will put in place because of public pressure.

                Now, a Labour led government should do it because it has a number of smaller coalition parties that would benefit from.

      • McGrath 1.1.3

        People these days tend to focus all their efforts on their own patch rather than worry about the neighbours over the fence.

      • KJT 1.1.4

        Whatever I feel about rich people buying elections. At least Gareth Morgans heart is in the right place.

        If he really wanted to make a difference, however. He should have thrown his weight behind the Greens.

        • BM 1.1.4.2

          The reason Morgan got into politics was because the Greens can only work with Labour.

          He saw an opening for a true MMP environmental party.

          • Andre 1.1.4.2.1

            But clearly the electorate wasn’t ready for another full-of-himself theoretician wanting to try a revolutionary economic experiment.

            • BM 1.1.4.2.1.1

              He fucked it up with his weirdness and polarizing nature, reminded me a bit of Kim dot com who got overly involved in 2014

              He needed to stay more in the background.

            • Rae 1.1.4.2.1.2

              Agree, I don’t have the best numbers head in the world, by any stretch, so I didn’t have a hope in Hades of understanding that side of his policies. His general drift, however I get. I think he or at least the organization should persevere as we are in a much changing world which will require a much more appropriate and modern system.
              I don’t hold out much hope with Labour or Nats when we still have tenancy laws that reflect a time when renting was not a norm, when it was a very temporary part of most people’s lives, so cannot see them getting their heads around policies for a time when work is even more precarious than it is now, and technology and mechanization will swallow up just about every job.

          • KJT 1.1.4.2.2

            No party supporting the environment can work with National. Their whole ethos is opposed to any form of collective fixing of problems.

          • KJT 1.1.4.2.3

            In many things Morgan is more socialist than the Greens. Who would have fitted easily into Kirk’s Labour. But don’t let me spoil your illusions.

            • boggis the cat 1.1.4.2.3.1

              It seems to me, having spent some time talking to TOP people, that the drive there is to make capitalism more ‘fit for purpose’ and thus ensure it can survive. This is what happened in the past, with reforms being made that prevented revolution.

              The smart wealthy people understand the precariousness of the system that they sit at the economic apex of, and are not opposed to changes that reduce their rate of amassing an ever larger dragon-hoard, provided that those changes will keep the torches and pitchforks of the masses from their door.

              (The rich are also human, and have as much capacity for empathy as anyone. They are also stuck in the system that we have, however they have more resources available to try to make ‘corrections’. Thus Morgan.)

          • Draco T Bastard 1.1.4.2.4

            Thing is, TOP could only work with Labour as well. National would just fuck up his policies and destroy TOP.

        • RedLogix 1.1.4.3

          @KJT

          It’s not whether you have money or not that counts; it’s how you use it that matters. And the simple truth is that the 5% threshold prevents any new party from getting into Parliament unless they have either a deal with one of the big parties or a substantial backer.

          The problem Morgan sees with the Greens is not that he dislikes their policies or people; it’s that on the simple facts of the matter New Zealanders are never going to vote for a Party they suspect is ‘far left’. And that will forever lock them out of power, meaning the outcomes they AND Morgan want will be very hard to achieve.

          But to be quite blunt I suspect the NZ that saw the birth of progressive parties like Labour, Social Credit, Values and the Greens is demographically eroding away. If the political context of this election had been held in say 1998, the left would have romped in. Now we’re happy to just avoid a total rout. The specials may yet surprise us; but in reality that’s no better than a student being happy with a C- instead of a D+.

          We’ve talked the multiple factors in this harsh reality to death; but Morgan still nailed it … selfishness rules.

          • KJT 1.1.4.3.1

            I don’t know that it does. If that was really the case National would not feel it is necessary to lie about the extent of poverty, and what they are doing about it, every election.

            • boggis the cat 1.1.4.3.1.1

              There is the question of who believes the lies — or if they really believe them, or are avoiding the issue by pretending to believe a convenient fiction.

              (You would have to be incredibly isolated to believe the ‘poor people are poor because they are lazy’ lie. Even the super-rich see the hired help working hard for their pittance.)

              • KJT

                Surprising how many of the well off prefer to believe that comforting lie.

                It is easy to feel less guilty about your wealth, and refusing to pay your debt to society, if you think it is due to some sort of moral superiority, your own efforts or merit, rather than simply having won the sperm lottery, finding a legal ponzi scheme or sheer luck.

                • boggis the cat

                  It’s largely due to our flawed thinking.

                  This is a good video debunking the endless ‘how to be successful’ stuff:

      • Eco maori 1.1.5

        They poured on the rhetoric today I think they’re counting there chickens

  2. invisiphilia 2

    Hopefully that youthquake we were hoping for will be reflected to some degree in the special votes. Rockenrol founder Laura O’Connell Rapira commented on RNZ recently that her experience has been that frustratingly, youth always bought their tickets to the party the night before. It does feel like this group hasn’t really been accounted for yet.

    Hopefully the movement of two seats to the left is a cautious estimate.

    Additionally it will be interesting to see what Winston does as his political life moves close to retirement. Surely he will want to be Deputy PM or Treasurer. This would be very hard for the Nats to suck up I imagine and surely would lead to internal disarray. It seems like an unworkable solution long term, much in the same way that the British Parliament is at the moment.

    • Paul Campbell 2.1

      Yeah, this is what worries me, Winston’s either going to retire or keel over this term – what will a leaderless NZF do?

    • One Anonymous Bloke 2.2

      “Treasurer” was the position Bolger cooked up for him. I doubt that brings back good memories.

  3. Carolyn_nth 3

    The results are disappointing for those who want everyone to have safe, secure and healthy housing, living incomes, and health and education systems that serve all well.

    However, make no mistake, there has been a significant change to the political landscape:

    Maori Party and Mana and IP, gone. The Mp may be able to resurrect, but it will be a different one from the last.

    TOP – dead in the water
    ACT- lame duck. Their vote in a Nat-led government will count for nothing, always subservient to NZ First.

    Charter schools – gone

    Better hospital services – tick

    TPP – in question

    Unfortunately, the needed massive build of state houses won’t happen, and the needed re-formation of our social welfare and benefit system won’t happen.

    BUT, a Labour-led government, with NZ First in the driving seat, would be little better – with Team Ardern being pretty centrist to start with.

    But we do have the promise of a new left direction – core labour movement and green movement values on the one side – opposed to

    old style conservatism of Peters and Bling on the other.

    So, buckle up for the next 3 years – real change will only come from the flax roots. So it’s time to pick ourselves up, and keep working, posting and campaigning for real change.

    • red-blooded 3.1

      What makes you think charter schools are gone? National’s very keen on them (and public-private partnerships when building or extending state schools).

      • Carolyn_nth 3.1.1

        NZ First policy is to want to get rid of them. So, which ever party leads a government, there’s not the numbers in the House to continue to support charter schools. Seymour + Nats would not get any vote through the House on Charter schools.

        That goes for a lot of things, whichever party leads the government.

        In the end, there’ll be issues that a majority of MPs could vote against either the Nat or Labour party preference.

        • red-blooded 3.1.1.1

          “Seymour + Nats would not get any vote through the House on Charter schools.”

          They don’t need another vote through on partnership (charter) schools – the legal stuff’s all set up. They’d need to put through a vote to dismantle them, and that’s not going to happen under the Nats.

          NZF say they’re against a lot of things, but I don’t recall this being amongst Winston’s extensive list of bottom lines, and even if it had been I think he uses the phrase “bottom line” pretty damn freely (and misleadingly).

          • Carolyn_nth 3.1.1.1.1

            The Nats do not have the support to stop dismantling of Charter schools. NZF, Lab and GP all want them dismantled.

            • red-blooded 3.1.1.1.1.1

              And if they form a coalition of some kind, this’ll happen. If not, I can’t see NZF breaking ranks with National over the issue.

  4. Matt 4

    I think you are a bit out with how many List MP’s Labour will get. With 16 as results stand you get down to Kieran McAnulty. Hopefully with specials Angie Warren-Clark will get in with Helen White is next if there is a really strong result there.

    Steph Lewis looks likely to miss out despite a strong showing in Whanganui.

    Despite it looking like it not going to go our way this result will give Labour some good representation in the regions and represents something to really build on.

    [You are right I did not adjust for the two Māori seats. Have added a note MS]

  5. Carolyn_nth 5

    Graeme Edgeler’s prediction for the final result after the special votes have been counted:

    This election there are a lot of special votes. The most ever. The Electoral Commission estimate is that there are 384,072 special votes, which is around 15% of the total.

    So his predicted final results are:

    Nat – 56 seats
    Lab – 46 seats
    NZF – 9
    GP – 8
    ACT – 1

    That makes Nat – led government would include – 66 seats
    Lab-led govt = 63 seats
    Total seats = 120

    Governing majority needed 61 seats

    • cleangreen 5.1

      Carolyn_nth You are saying national are at 66 but this is Grahams figures below saying 56 seats?
      “That makes Nat – led government would include – 66 seats”
      Graeme Edgeler’s prediction for the final result after the special votes have been counted: = National 46.03% 58 44.86% 56

      • Carolyn_nth 5.1.1

        I’m not sure what you are saying.

        A Nat-led government would include:
        Nats on 56 seats +
        ACT – 1 seat +
        NZF – 9 seats

        = 66 seats.

  6. Anne 6

    ‘Don’t count your chickens before they hatch’ seems a very apt meme at the moment. I think the ‘special chickens’ are possibly going to deliver an extra seat to both the Greens and Labour. The Greens because the specials traditionally favour them. Labour because of Jacinda and the free tertiary policy.

    Labour must work assiduously over the next two weeks to ensure NZ First and Peters are fully apprised of the similarity of many of their policies to both Labour and the Greens.

    This fight is far from over and maybe, just maybe, common sense and decency will win out in the end. And if it does, victory will be all the sweeter for it.

    • lurgee 6.1

      Not counting chickens before their hatched would have been good advice to a few of the more enthusiastic Labour supporters hereabouts. Just sayin’.

      • left_forward 6.1.1

        It was more about daring to hope for a more compassionate Government, than early chicken counting.

        • Stuart Munro 6.1.1.1

          Let us not be laying blame on each other while there are scrofulous self-serving oiks like Gower, Garner and Hoskings out there.

      • Anne 6.1.2

        I hope you weren’t referring to me because in the last two weeks I have been consistently more pessimistic than most about Labour’s chances. History and experience has taught me that the populace in general is politically ignorant, naive and lacking integrity – a summation that has been borne out in the last 24 hrs.

        I should also like to make the point that I hope Labour will finally dispense with their puritanical stance on strategic deal making. If they had told their voters in Epsom to vote for Paul Goldsmith and their voters in Northland to vote for Peters we would probably be in the box seat in the forthcoming negotiations. Willow Jean Prime was going to make parliament on the list anyway so nothing would have been lost.

        • Jerko 6.1.2.1

          And greens should have left Nelson to Labour. From my observation. Port Hills 4-5000 votes from Labour went to National Party vote. It defies belief that voters are that stupid.

        • left_forward 6.1.2.2

          How would Peters winning Northland have helped?

    • Bearded Git 6.2

      If you do the calculations Anne (46/95.7 x 120) you will see National has 57.7 seats now which has been rounded to 58.

      The last 3 elections the Greens have picked up a seat on specials and this time there are lots more specials and these are likely to lean even more to the Left due to the enrollment/vote at same time situation.

      So National will definitely lose one (62-58) and Graham Edgeler may be right, they may lose 2 (63-57)

      • Exkiwiforces 6.2.1

        The ABC’s election specialist, Antony Green ( He is very good at his job when its comes to elections btw) was say the same thing here in Oz last night that National may lose 1 to 2 seats ATM. So it’s old not over yet until the fat lady sings, so there is still hope yet.

        Fingers crossed

      • Anne 6.2.2

        I understand there are close on 400,000 special votes cast. Many of those are students who enrolled in the past fortnight and many are young folk on the OEs. I’m picking 2 seats will be lost to National – possibly 3 on those figures.

    • ianmac 6.3

      An unpleasant Alexia Russell (Newsroom) reckons that the rush of student enrolments was from the mass of students who enrolled against Labour because they didn’t want oncoming students to benefit when the current ones are suffering.

      Wow! That is before any specials have been counted.

      • Craig H 6.3.1

        I read that article, and it was painful because of its ignorance of the actual Labour policy.

        • repateet 6.3.1.1

          Those people are as entitled to be as ignorant of labour’s policy as any others.

          Those people are entitled to be brainwashed by the media perpetuating National lies and repeating the material in their scare tactics as others.

  7. Andre 7

    Wonder how long Gareth Morgan will spend pondering the fact he got just over half the support of Colin’s Crazies.

    • bwaghorn 7.1

      it’s a shame since his party and ideas are light years ahead of the god botherers crap

    • Bearded Git 7.2

      LOL…yes there were some very good things last night; Morgan’s crap result and Marama Fox being tossed out.

      • ianmac 7.2.1

        I think there are some good ideas in TOP and the ideas should be explored.

        • tracey 7.2.1.1

          Agree. We need more ideas not fewer

          • DoublePlusGood 7.2.1.1.1

            Campaign to ditch the threshold. Then our democracy will be more representative.

            • ianmac 7.2.1.1.1.1

              Exactly. Some discussion a few years ago, explored the threshold being o%. Thus if you could muster 50% votes or whatever equates to one member, you must have some credibility. Of course National would rather have First past the post.

  8. Ant 8

    Much saddened that the success of National’s bald lies, so eloquently laid bare by Gowar, will encourage further dishonesty and stealth down the line. As role models (hah!) what signal does this send to the youth and all good peoples of our country?

    • Graeme 8.1

      The Nats have already sucked 46% of our voting population down that plughole, and did it a long time ago. Lying has been an accepted way to win, or make a problem go away, for most people for the last 10 years. Once you go down that hole it’s very hard to climb out without severe loss of face. So fear and loathing brings the faithful home. Hence we are where we are.

  9. National dropped one point to 46%. But there will have been some movement of the vote as the Conservative’s 4% of the vote has disappeared. This probably mostly went to National which in turn shed votes to Labour.

    My hunch is it actually went to NZ First, which actually lost a bit more to Labour than the scores on the doors suggest.

  10. nzsage 10

    Re Epsom and “Maybe Labour should consider not standing a candidate there next time.”

    Epsom is is not a “Dirty Deal”, it’s a stinking, rotten-to -the-core deal, unfortunately it works.

    As much as it goes against my principles Labour and the Greens have to replicate this political deceit and Nelson looks a good place to start.

    The combined Labour-Green vote there last night would have surpassed National’s Nick Smith by 4,000 votes so what is a significantly left leaning city is now represented by a right wing MP (and an under performing one at that!).

    Yes let’s keep the “Relentless Positivity” going but let us also play the sordid game of politics where it results in gains for the left.

    • tracey 10.1

      Epsom is how MMP works. The sooner some get their heads around this the sooner parties do not have to issue directives

      • Carolyn_nth 10.1.1

        Don’t worry about Epsom – ACT is now a lame duck – will have no influence whatsoever if there is a Nat-NZF government.

        the self-serving “good” people of Epsom will grow to forget Seymour exists.

        • Psycho Milt 10.1.1.1

          Whether in formal coalition or not, Seymour is still effectively one more parliamentary vote for National than their party vote share entitles them to. As we’ve seen, one vote can sometimes be the difference between success or failure at passing legislation, so don’t expect to see ACT disappear anytime soon – a National MP for Epsom isn’t in National’s interest.

        • repateet 10.1.1.2

          Except Act is their excuse for privatising schooling and Seymour is their boy for that.

          • Carolyn_nth 10.1.1.2.1

            Yes. But that will only be about 59 MPs (at the most – maybe 57 after the specials results) in the House in favour of privatising education. So, they will be opposed by the majority of MPs, unless NZF does some dirty deal about it – then expect them to lose a lot of votes in 3 years.

      • Anne 10.1.2

        +1000 tracey.

      • Sanctuary 10.1.3

        E.g. Nelson, where the Labour/Green vote was over 19,000 but Nick Smith scraped back in on a plurality.

        Nelson is a classic example of a seat where a strategically targeted Left alliance could have scored a major propaganda coup by getting the scalp of a high profile minister.

      • ScottGN 10.1.5

        Except it isn’t really though is it tracey.
        If National was really keen to use Epsom to expand the way MMP works they would have spent at least some of the last 9 years allowing ACT to flourish on their right flank.
        So they’ve got a ready made coalition partner for each election.
        But they can’t help themselves can they? Their instinct is to suck up every last vote on their side of the aisle.

    • DoublePlusGood 10.2

      Just campaign to introduce preferential voting in electorates. That clears up that whole nonsense, and would see Nick Smith ousted.

      • alwyn 10.2.2

        Preferential voting can produce just as many anomalies as any other method.
        I can easily produce an example where a single vote being changed can completely change the final result, no matter how large the electorate.
        There is no infallible technique.

        • boggis the cat 10.2.2.1

          The argument is that it is better, not that it is “infallible”.

        • Draco T Bastard 10.2.2.2

          I can easily produce an example where a single vote being changed can completely change the final result, no matter how large the electorate.

          And what’s the chances of that condition ever happening in real life?

  11. savenz 11

    Winston was screwed over by National when he worked with them last. NZ First dropped from 13.4% party votes in 1996 – after a coalition with the Natz they were out of parliament with 4.3%.

    Act used to be a viable party – no longer – a poodle troughing. Gone are the conservatives, United Future and the Maori party.

    Natz are weasels. A vote against them is a vote for change and a new coalition. They will drop their pants to agree to a coalition and then screw them by lunchtime and have their partners out of parliament.

    • McGrath 11.1

      Peters is a poisoned chalice and stuffs up whoever he goes into coalition with. National will crash and burn by the time of the next election should they pair up.

      • invisiphilia 11.1.1

        Agreed but if this happens it won’t just be because of Winston’s unique inconsistencies. It will also come about due to a number of self-seeking MPS becoming disgruntled with the compromises made.

        Some commentators this morning pointed out as well minor party’s policy barely get a look in when they decide to be part of govt as was the case with ACT and the Maori Party. From this perspective, a Lab-Greens-NZ First coalition appears to be a more balanced one, especially if the final tally is 63 seats between them after the special votes are counted.

        One unfortunate thing to come out of this I think for either side will be that the media will constantly be exploiting any possibly actions that appear to represent even a whisper of disunity. Watching the Nats come unstuck would be a fun past time for the next three years if it weren’t at the expense of those who are genuinely in need of change.

      • Stuart Munro 11.1.2

        While that may be true they’re quite capable of creating their own fubars.

    • lurgee 11.2

      You realise Labour have been equally ruthless to obtain power? They shafted the Alliance in 2002, and the Greens in 2005.

      You’re a fool if you think they are much more principled than National. They’re also power-hungry power-seekers, troughers and psychopaths – just ones with somewhat better policies.

      • savenz 11.2.1

        Nope, Jacinda represents the future, people recognised she was not a power-hungry power-seeking, trougher and psychopath . Many of the Labour troughers have gone.

        The reality is that Labour, NZ First and Greens have a huge amount in common. They just don’t agree exactly how to go about implementing their changes.

        For example all three agree immigration has gone too far but articulate it in different ways.

        Labour wants immigration reduced so that infrastructure can catch up.
        Greens want immigration reduced so that sustainability can occur.
        NZ First want immigration reduced so that the cultural capital of ‘being a Kiwi’ is kept and NZ National interests are put first.

        Votes who voted against National in part reflect’s their common position. They don’t need to agree the reasons, just to do it.

        They all agree National standards in education is failing.

        They all agree we should not be selling assets and privatising the country.

        They all agree we have a biased media.

        etc etc.

        Voters like their policies and they should form a government together and implement them.

        • alwyn 11.2.1.1

          ” Jacinda represents the future, people recognised she was not a power-hungry power-seeking, trougher and psychopath”.
          Oh, what sweet innocence. She is a politician. To go into that trade and to rise to the top requires exactly the traits you disapprove of.

          You sound rather like Robert Menzies talking about the Queen and quoting the words of 17th century poet Robert Ford.
          “I did but see her passing by and yet I love her till I die.”

          • tracey 11.2.1.1.1

            Only when we vote for those qualities.

            I am just wondering, are we all bringing up our children to understand that lying is ok if it gets you what you want?

          • Draco T Bastard 11.2.1.1.2

            Oh, what sweet innocence. She is a politician. To go into that trade and to rise to the top requires exactly the traits you disapprove of.

            Wrong. Or, to be more precise, it’s what’s needed in National but not wanted or needed in any party of the Left.

            • alwyn 11.2.1.1.2.1

              Really?
              I suppose you think that Helen Clark was always a totally loyal lieutenant of Mike Moore.
              Like hell she was. She rolled him straight after he had obtained a miraculous result for the Labour Party in 1993.

              • She rolled him straight after he had obtained a miraculous result for the Labour Party in 1993.

                IIRC, Moore wasn’t really liked. He was following the neo-liberal script which very few people actually wanted.

          • Peter 11.2.1.1.3

            You just nailed it 100%

  12. tracey 12

    Why do specials take so long

    • Carolyn_nth 12.1

      Maybe they need to verify each voter? Certainly with the walk-in-enrol-and-vote at Advance Voting booths?

      • tracey 12.1.1

        I was wondering if they have to wait for the last vote and it could be coming via piveon from deepest congo?

        • Sanctuary 12.1.1.1

          Alas, the cause of the delay is the relative rarity of the Pivion these days in the Congo, hunted to near extinction for it’s beautiful plumage.

          • In Vino 12.1.1.1.1

            My fat aunt once had a duvet cover filled with piveon-down. One Guy Fawkes evening a stray sky-rocket unfortunately found its way into her bedroom. The resulting explosion sent fall-out ash over the entire region, creating an aurora borealis effect where Red and Green colours merged with funny patches of black with white fern shapes in them. Or so they say. But my memory may have fudged some of the detail. However, I do remember my fat aunt as a very colourful person…

      • ianmac 12.1.2

        Each voter details have to be verified. That takes time. The actual count of the ballot paper can be done easily and quickly once verified.

        And ordinary votes have each to be checked against the electoral roll. That number sticker is unstuck so your ballot paper can be checked against the roll line by line to check for duplication or cheating.

    • Ad 12.2

      Because they are Special.

    • Craig H 12.3

      The overseas votes are legally given 2 weeks to arrive in NZ, so we have to wait for them.

    • NewsFlash 12.4

      Tracey, it can take up to 2 weeks for the overseas votes to arrive as they are dispatched on polling day from the country of origin.

    • cleangreen 12.5

      Tracy we have been communicatting with the Electoral Commission for two years as we are a community ‘watchdog’ for voting proceedures in NZ, hope it helps answerr some of those questions.

      Last year this was Electoral Commission response to the two week period after the election.

      Parliamentary elections
      Elections are a largely manual operation. Votes are counted twice. The preliminary count is conducted in voting places on election night by the people who issued the votes. The process is entirely manual, except that once the counting is complete the results are phoned to the electorate headquarters, where they are entered into the Electoral Commission’s purpose-built Election Management System (EMS). The results are published, more-or-less live, direct from the EMS on our election results website http://www.electionresults.govt.nz. Results are also provided to the media in a similar manner so that they can produce the information and graphics you see on TV on election night.
      The official count is also conducted manually, at each Returning Officer’s electorate headquarters over the following two weeks. Again the results are entered into the EMS to facilitate error checking and publication..
      Parties and candidates can and do appoint scrutineers to observe both the preliminary and official counts. The official count is also supervised by a Justice of the Peace.
      RMS and EMS have both been subject to independent security review.

      There have been worrying slips within Electoral Commission after recent times with the taking home os ballot boxes by staff recently, and here was the latest response to us last week after ask the commission why they allowed ‘advanced vote ballot boxes to be taken home, as we foundout in the press that it was happening.
      Our response is below afterwards, that we posted on TS & TDB, as it gives you some idea of what EC was doing.

      Dear concerned voter,

      The Commission takes the security of voting materials very seriously and has a number of systems and processes to ensure voting materials are secure.

      During the initial assessment of all of our advance voting places Returning Officers are required to assess storage options. We generally require access to a solid, lockable room or cupboard to which no one else will have access during the voting period.

      This, however, needs to be balanced with our ability to offer services in some public spaces. In instances where there are no suitable storage facilities on site, electoral officials /advance voting place managers may take materials back to the electorate headquarters. Only if none of these options is possible would we allow an electoral official to secure the voting materials at their home overnight. This is a long-standing practice.

      All ballot boxes are sealed throughout the voting period, and additional protections include: detailed tracking of all used and unused ballot papers including allocating ballot paper pad numbers to specific individuals, tracking of single-use security seals to individuals, a place on each ballot box to record the seal number in use at any time, daily reconciliation and reporting of ballot papers used for each electorate on site.

      All ballot boxes and materials are regularly returned to electorate headquarters as part of our security processes.

      For security reasons, we wouldn’t go into any further detail.

      Nga mihi,
      Tim Taule.

      Electoral Commission | Te Kaitiaki Take Kōwhiri
      PO Box 3220 | Level 10, 34 – 42 Manners Street | Wellington | 6140
      Phone +64 4 495 0030 | Fax +64 4 495 0031 | http://www.elections.org.nz

      Dear NZ voting concerned citizens.
      20/9/17.
      Below is the reply from Electoral Commission today following our questions We feel a judicial enquiry is needed;

      During the OIA response from the electoral office this (below) was the response to our questions of anti-tampering of our voting papers.
      It graphically shows that they tried at length last year to ‘assure’ that a JP would be there every step of the way to ‘ensure additional judicial supervision’.

      So why has the Electoral Commissioner allowed this election for anybody on staff to carry the ballot boxes home, without this ‘added additional judicial supervision’?

      We feel a judicial review now be conducted here as to restore voter confidence in the NZ Electoral system.

      • Given the manual nature of the count, assurance is provided by way of scrutiny and the presence of the Justice of the Peace. Recount and election petition processes ensure additional judicial supervision which can include relooking at individual ballot papers. An elector who wants to see whether they are recorded as having voted can inspect the physical master roll under section 187 of the Electoral Act 1993 but to protect the secrecy of the ballot, no person can see how the voter has voted.

  13. Zeroque 13

    A question I have is what would Labour and the Greens need to live with if NZ1 has its way? He will drive a hard bargain with both major parties.

    • Carolyn_nth 13.1

      It will be interesting to see the relative negotiating skills of Team Bling and Team Ardern – this will be an indicator of the kind of government we have for the next 3 years.

      Either way, those of us who care about everyone being housed, fed, educated and served by public services such as the health system, will need to keep campaigning, putting on pressure, and making our case over the next 3 years.

  14. savenz 14

    P.S. How long has Bill got in this world??? Yep the knives will be out and Mr safe and steady (a Teresa May Robot line) replaced by who? In spite of the MSM hanging onto every lie from National, biased reporting and their massive organised political campaign, Natz lost. National did worse than the UK Conservatives under similar conditions.

    • tracey 14.1

      Why? He held their line when everyone said they were nothing without Key

      • alwyn 14.1.1

        I think that savenz lives in a different dimension to the rest of us. Frankly I think Bill did amazingly well and the job is his as long as he wants it if they form a Government.
        I wouldn’t expect him to hang round for very long if Labour managed to cobble together a troika of themselves, NZF and the Greens though. Mind you he might take the view that it would collapse within a year.

      • Richard Christie 14.1.2

        Why?

        Because Judith exists, that’s why.

        • tracey 14.1.2.1

          Ah…

        • Stuart Munro 14.1.2.2

          A certain excavation incident may blunt her ambitions for the moment.

          • tracey 14.1.2.2.1

            Except if the story was snuffed that means some quite influential folks want her around.

          • repateet 14.1.2.2.2

            That is totally insignificant and inconsequential. She was on tv lying to us about stuff. She was in Parliament lying.
            Those incidents were so terrible she was dealt to? No. Here we are with her being mentioned as Leader/PM!

            • tracey 14.1.2.2.2.1

              And English in box seat on the back of two deliberate lies. Applauded in tge wings by Prebble.

  15. Ad 15

    I found it more sweet than bitter.

    Two months ago Labour were going to get creamed.

    There’s nothing like a charismatic and intelligent leader to revive the Labour movement. And the workers and volunteers came out at scale. That’s what we have. Ardern has clarified both Labour’s policy priorities, and their timing. That’s where we are going.

    The result shows it’s a really hard flightpath to navigate for any party between an economy that on some levels is doing OK, but on the other you want people to aspire for more and vote ‘change’, rather than fear and conserve what they have of it and vote ‘no change’. That axial point is the precise result we have got, which shows up the precise intelligence of the New Zealand voting collective will.

    Unlike the past 30 years, we have not had the once-every-decade economic crash that has presaged a change of government. Despite that, Labour (supported by the Greens) has found and honed wedge issues that shear off fractions of support away from the old bloc. I can’t recall for example lowly transport ever being on the electoral horizon. Smart politics.

    They have also revived with better candidates providing greater policy power in parliament and in the party machine.

    So charisma, organizational will and capacity, and precise policy targeting, together show huge revival in Labour, and that is the primary thing I celebrate so sweetly this morning.

    • Zeroque 15.1

      Yes and I wonder whether that momentum can be best maintained and preferably increased by being in Govt or remaining outside. Sure, being outside will mean they will likely achieve less but it may put them in a better position to be a two or three term Govt next time. I cannot recall but don’t new Govt’s normally dwindle in successive terms rather than increase their share?

      • Ad 15.1.1

        That choice is not in Ardern’s hands, yet.

        I agree it would be useful for Ardern to weather a little as a leader and consolidate, and if I hear her utter the phrase “captain’s call” again I will throw something at the radio.

        But every Labour MP would rather be in government. I’m still impatient to see it.

        Labour is also well placed to run another election if a weak National government falls.

        • tracey 15.1.1.1

          Is there a law to stop her talking to winston? And the Greens about NZF. Where does Shane Jones fit in the with Nat or Labour scheme?

          • Ad 15.1.1.1.1

            I am sure jacinda Ardern is already talking to Winston Peters.

          • Carolyn_nth 15.1.1.1.2

            About an hour and a half ago on RNZ:

            The party’s negotiating team, led by Ms Ardern, would make contact soon with New Zealand First.

            “I expect there’ll be a phone call made in pretty short order.”

            Mr Twyford said National had lost its governing majority, and the majority of New Zealanders voted for change.

            “When you look at the number of MMP governments over the last couple of decades there have been a range of different setups with minority governments … and very small majorities.”

            And, for GP doubters:

            Green Party leader James Shaw said he would also be reaching out to Mr Peters, but Labour would have to take the lead given it was the largest party.

            He was not concerned a three-party government would be difficult to keep going.

            “People are able to, for the sake of the country, work together on the things that they’ve got in common – and that’s been my message to Mr Peters.”

    • alwyn 15.2

      “There’s nothing like a charismatic and intelligent leader to revive the Labour movement”.
      You mean that she got the Labour Party back to the position they were in before Shearer got rolled in August 2013. Four years wasted.

      Now Shearer would have made a good PM. Not in 2014 but certainly today.
      You will remember, I’m sure, that the polls continued to rise throughout Shearer’s time. With Ardern they soared upwards, the fuel ran out and then when she was exposed as not, yet, being up to the job the polls dropped just as fast.
      Give her three years and she may be trained up and have learnt the enormous range of skills and knowledge required of a PM. Somebody has to. We can’t keep going forever with National. They, like all Governments, simply get tired and stale after too many terms

      • Ad 15.2.1

        National certainly won’t refresh themselves going into a coalition with New Zealand First, who are the very definition of stale.

        I can see you are hungry for change in government. But what kind?

        • alwyn 15.2.1.1

          “New Zealand First, who are the very definition of stale.”.
          I am entirely in agreement with you. I would have quite happy if NZF hadn’t made it back. They did though and covering my eyes and ears and going “nah, nah, nah, nah” isn’t going to change it.
          The thing is though, that I really can’t see a Government being formed without them. We don’t have an overriding theocracy like Iran’s which decides who is to be allowed to stand for election.

          “change in government. But what kind”.
          Of all the party policies I leaned most toward TOPs. They weren’t going to get anywhere though and I wasn’t going to waste my vote. I also think that Gareth would turn out to be just as bad a politician as I would. The difference is that I know it.

        • mary_a 15.2.1.2

          Ad @ (15.2.1) … I’m not a NZF supporter by any means. However, I don’t agree with your comment that “… New Zealand First, who are the very definition of stale.”

          It’s not the party that’s stale. Its 72 year old, one man band leader Winston Peters is projecting an image of a stagnating party for dinosaurs, which is a pity really, because there are some good MPs there.

          Despite being 71 myself, even I can see that Winston is well past his political prime and needs to retire and give up the leadership to a younger, sharp, more progressive NZF MP.

      • tracey 15.2.2

        Who did you vote for in the end?

        She was undone by two relentless lies that were given traction before being checked by the media. Not sure Shearer would have withstood that.

        Leadership is not all about age.

        • alwyn 15.2.2.1

          In the end I did what I have previously said I would do.
          I voted for National. I simply did not think that the Labour Party, or Jacinda Ardern in particular, are in any way prepared to govern.

          • Psycho Milt 15.2.2.1.1

            I simply did not think that the Labour Party, or Jacinda Ardern in particular, are in any way prepared to govern.

            You left out “in my interest.” Let’s not be dishonest with each other.

            • alwyn 15.2.2.1.1.1

              You are trying much to hard.
              I really do vote in what I see are the best interests of New Zealand. I am much more interested in the future of my children and grand children than any particular interests of my own.

              • Your children and grandchildren wouldn’t benefit from another three years of government based on pretending the problems facing the country don’t actually exist. Quite the opposite, in fact. The only credible reason for well-off people to vote National is that the pretence is in their financial interest.

                • In Vino

                  There is your failing, Alwyn. You need to widen your focus, learn to be less self-centred, and think about other people’s children and grandchildren as well.

              • JanM

                If that were the case you should have done all in your power to get National’s mitts of our collapsing education system!

              • repateet

                Most interested in the future of their children, grand children and whole nation rather than any particular interests of their own, would not have voted for National or Act because of their appalling education policies.

              • boggis the cat

                Do you think anyone is going to believe that assertion?

                If not, why write something that proves you to be a liar in the estimation of those reading it?

                (I genuinely don’t understand this behaviour.)

          • tracey 15.2.2.1.2

            Thanks. You realise there is some ilself fulfilling prophesy to your TOP comment? Namely if 5% think it is a waste so dont vote the way they want they can say… see it would have been a waste…

            If you leaned toward TOP what policies of National alighn with TOP( genuine question)

          • Bearded Git 15.2.2.1.3

            You voted for National even though you knew they had spread lies?

            I simply could not vote for a party that did this.

      • Ed 15.2.3

        You say the same words as Matthew Hooton, arch spinner.
        Does that concern you?

        • alwyn 15.2.3.1

          Does he really?
          Oh well, I suppose, in my defence of my right to say something I can only go back to the statement attributed to Salvation Army founder William Booth.
          “Why should the Devil have all the best tunes”.

          • In Vino 15.2.3.1.1

            Don’t flatter yourself, Alwyn. You sing flat.

          • boggis the cat 15.2.3.1.2

            “There is no improving the future without disturbing the present.”
            – Catherine Booth

            “While women weep, as they do now, I’ll fight; while little children go hungry, as they do now, I’ll fight; while men go to prison, in and out, in and out, as they do now, I’ll fight; while there is a drunkard left, while there is a poor lost girl upon the streets, while there remains one dark soul without the light of God, I’ll fight — I’ll fight to the very end!”
            – William Booth

  16. Nick 16

    ShonKey was about to be interviewed on one channel, he was looking his sleazy self, and so I quickly switched to the other channel and bennett was talking her garbage so I switched to Maori TV…. thank goodness !

  17. Ed 17

    Some of Bomber Bradbury’s thoughts.

    Two of his winners.

    China:

    The full implications of the devastating University of Canterbury investigation into National’s total acquiesce to Chinese business interests was lost in the noise of the election. TDB will be running some analysis of this because it will quickly become the major issue moving forward now. The level of control China has over the National Party makes tonight’s result for National as big a win Beijing as it is for Bill English.

    Blue Dragons:

    ‘The rise and rise and rise of the influence of Chinese New Zealanders within the National Party mark them as one of the largest factions inside National now. The utter dominance Chinese business interests have in the private lives of leading National Party MPs as highlighted in the University of Canterbury report means National will continue to feed the Blue Dragons.

    ‘https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2017/09/24/election-2017-winners-losers-biggest-issues/’

  18. alwyn 18

    I had a try at picking the final result yesterday afternoon. I, almost certainly by a fluke, got all the Party votes within 1 percent. It is amazing how close one can get if you simply accept that the late polls are pretty accurate and you can only alter the numbers with very, very good reason.

    The only surprises were that the Green Party got back and that the Maori Party didn’t win a seat.. I thought the Greens would be close to, but on the wrong side of the 5% figure. I think they can thank the MSM for completely ignoring the Turei story after she quit. With more than a month going by without anything about her in the papers or on TV people who were normally Green, but were very unhappy with her and with the party’s dumping on Kennedy Graham, could calm down, forget it, and drift back.

    The only thing that seems certain is that Winston will be in the Government. The only way to keep him out, or in fact to have a Labour led Government at all, would require the Green Party to swallow one of a choice of very large dead rats.
    Their options seem to be.
    Change their line and support National. It would get them into Government and keep NZF out.
    Agree to provide Confidence and Supply to a Labour/NZF Government and accept that they will have no Ministerial roles. In baseball great Yogi Berra’s immortal words it will be “Deja vu all over again”. Bring back 2005.

    Anything else will, I think lead to a National/NZF Government. I cannot imagine Winston agreeing to any Green Party Ministers or even considering going into Government with Labour if they don’t have guaranteed support on Confidence and Supply.
    Such is life.

    • Bearded Git 18.1

      Interestingly on Stuff’s totally unscientific (but 33000 voters) poll today the preferences for coalitions are:

      Lab/Gr/NZF 38%
      Nat/NZF 34%
      Nat/Gr 14%

      I was expecting Nat/NZF to be 50% plus.

      • alwyn 18.1.1

        Did they just open that poll today?
        That is an incredible number of votes if so.
        I suppose I could be a spoilsport and quote the hoary old dictum that people who support Labour seem to bring up regularly.
        We have an MMP environment, not FPP.
        Those votes seem to mean that 48% want a National led Government and only 34% want a Labour led one.
        Actually they probably do when you look at the party vote tallies. They pretty much match the Labour and National Party votes, don’t they?

      • I was expecting Nat/NZF to be 50% plus.

        After 1996 and the 5th Labour led government I’d never expect that.

    • Ad 18.2

      Alwyn there’s no doubt you did pretty good there.

    • AB 18.3

      “Change their line and support National”. Alwyn, you know perfectly well that Green voters despise National and everything it stands for. Repeating this silly line is just rather dumb, unoriginal mischief making.

      • alwyn 18.3.1

        You did notice that I described it as “a choice of very large dead rats”.
        And no, I don’t think it is at all likely. That has nothing to do with it. It is about the only way to keep Winston out of power though, isn’t it?

        Incidentally, can you explain how you can possibly be so all-knowing? Are you really omnipotent? You must be if you “know” that “Green voters despise National and everything it stands for”.

        • AB 18.3.1.1

          Ah – you mean “omniscient” (which I don’t claim to be) rather than “omnipotent” which I self-evidently am not. My observation relates to that circa 6% of Green support that stayed loyal despite the Turei mugging. From listening to what they say I detect a very strong antipathy to the core values (though I would call them “non-values”) of the National Party.

          • alwyn 18.3.1.1.1

            I did mean omnipotent, although reconsidering it your alternative of omniscient is probably more appropriate.

            • In Vino 18.3.1.1.1.1

              No, Alwyn – re-read it and it is obvious that you muffed it. Despite your love for erudition, you used the wrong word. Tch tch…

              • alwyn

                I am pleased to see that I have at least one reader who studies with enormous care every word I utter. Well perhaps utter isn’t the right word. Shall we say that I type with my four finger pecking at the keyboard?

                You must of course read and think carefully about everything I say though.
                You need always keep in mind Alexander Pope’s warning.
                “A little learning is a dangerous thing ; Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring : There shallow draughts intoxicate the brain, And drinking largely sobers us again”

                Taking little sips will render your pen name only too accurate. I would suggest it would make a loose translation “In his cups” appropriate.

                • In Vino

                  Thank you for conceding that you made the error, instead of skiving as you originally attempted to do. The rest is drivel.

        • Grey Area 18.3.1.2

          Why would a party (movement) that looks to the future, wants to end poverty, address climate collapse and clean up our water even consider for a second working with the National Party?

          • alwyn 18.3.1.2.1

            I consider that a very large chunk of the New Zealand Green Party support is really treating it like a religious movement.
            The problem is that their leadership is akin to Bishop Tamaki of the Destiny Church. Not in their beliefs of course but their attitude to the rest of the population.
            Of the Green MPs in the outgoing Parliament the one who I thought was worth something was Kennedy Graham. The rest were really no different to the MPs in any other party.
            As for “end poverty”. They don’t really want to end poverty. They simply want everyone, except themselves, to be equally poor.

            • left_forward 18.3.1.2.1.1

              I guess this is all a deep fear Alwyn that the Greens along with the other previous opposition parties will be in Government in a few weeks time. Relax, this will be an excellent thing, and your life will be better for it, even though you might never recognise how it happened.

            • Robert Guyton 18.3.1.2.1.2

              Hi, Alwyn. I’ve been fortunate enough to have met many of the Green MPs over time; shared meals, accommodation, car rides, even public platforms: Rod Donald, Jeanette Fitzsimons, Russel, Metiria, Mojo, Catherine, Sue and Sue, Keith, Mike, Nandor etc. When I read your comment @ 4:52, I wondered to myself, “Is alwyn a little… simple ?

              • alwyn

                Gosh! Haven’t you met the most amazing and famous people.
                I’ve even heard of some of them. Well the first couple anyway.
                Some of the others ring a bell but I’m not really sure what they did or where they are now.
                Who are Sue and Sue though. Are they David Lange’s former representatives in the defamation cases he used to bring.

                Did they pay for their own meals or did you get stuck with the tab?

            • tracey 18.3.1.2.1.3

              You confuse a new way of doing politics with religion. Religion is when people follow leaders who lie to their faces

          • Foreign Waka 18.3.1.2.2

            Grey Area – Exactly. Look at the Maori party and their mantra: we need to sit at the table…

    • tracey 18.4

      The Greens getting back only surprised you. An analysis of all their election results would have shown you that

      • alwyn 18.4.1

        I’m not sure what you mean by that remark.
        The Green Party came down very close to 5% in 1999, for example. They also routinely drop below their final polling numbers on Election Day. They did this time as well, although not by as much as usual.
        Curia had them at 6.6% before the election and they dropped to 5.9% on the day.

        • Carolyn_nth 18.4.1.1

          they will probably be closer to 6.6% after the special vote count.

          • alwyn 18.4.1.1.1

            If by “probably closer” you mean they will probably go from 5.9% to 6.1% I could agree with you. I think anything more than that would be extremely unlikely.
            A very rough calculation gives the answer that they would have to get about 11.3% of all the special votes for them to go from 5.9% to 6.6%.
            True. At least it is if the special votes are about 15% of the number of votes already counted. I think that is the case.

            If anyone wants to check it the calculation is that
            The total number of votes counted yesterday is N. The final number of votes will be 1.15*N.
            The number of Green votes yesterday was 0.059*N. The number at the end will need to be 0.066*1.15*N
            Therefore the number of special votes they have to get is (0.066*1.15 – 0.059)*N or 0.017*N
            The percentage of the specials is therefore 0.017/0.15 (*100) or about 11.3%. That is around twice the percentage they have got to date and has never happened in the past.
            I think it is right. Pretty quick and rough though so I might have screwed it up.

        • tracey 18.4.1.2

          Becaus3 I looked at history and worked out how they actualky did when Labour was stronger. Of course Green was going to bleed some to Labour. When Labour dropped to 24% where do you think they went.

          Green core remains 5-6% throughout its time in parliament.

          That is not oblivion. What happened to MP was oblivion. Undeserved imo but oblivion and no one prattled on about it pre election day lije they did the Greens

          • alwyn 18.4.1.2.1

            “Green core remains 5-6% throughout its time in parliament”.
            You appear to be agreeing that the Green Party vote could go down to 5% when you make this statement.
            A single vote less than that 5% number would have them out of Parliament.
            Then it almost certainly would be oblivion. New Zealand First are the only party that have ever come back.

            As far as the Maori Party goes I think most people were like me. They simply didn’t foresee that the party wasn’t going to win a seat. They were ahead in two seats in the polls held for Maori TV just before the election I think.
            A single electorate seat totally overrides the 5% barrier.
            There was no need to worry about the 5% limit for the MP unless you expected them to miss out in the electorate vote.

            • tracey 18.4.1.2.1.1

              5% is the threshold not oblivion

              • alwyn

                Of course it is the threshold. It appears from history though that once your party drops out of Parliament it never comes back.
                That makes sense of course. There is no longer the publicity or the public funds that go to a party represented in Parliament. No salaries and no taxpayer funded travel. No leaders funds for the party. There is a lot of money involved.

            • tracey 18.4.1.2.1.2

              And therein lies the bastard that is polls. People play mental games instead of voting for their convictions/hopes for the future.

              Predicting and polling is the focus… even for a well read fellow such as you. The notion of waste was more valid under FPP. Old habits die hard particularly when strategists play to them.

              • In Vino

                He’s not all that well-read – he’s just a naughty boy.

                • alwyn

                  Well the last word is roughly correct. The rest of the sentence is about your usual stupid level though.

                  • In Vino

                    What is it that motivates you to spend so much time here, Alwyn?
                    Despite your efforts, I doubt if you are making a difference. Do you really get a tickle from irritating Lefties? Remember that antagonism is usually a failing tactic.
                    ‘usual stupid level’ .. coming from you, a compliment.

                    • tracey

                      He is, at times, like a Catholic amobgst atheists. Afterall, he voted for the people who lied to his face but did it for his own good… kind of like relgious leaders do.

                    • alwyn

                      You really don’t have very much control over your impulses do you?
                      Remember what you said only a couple of hours ago?

                      The election result

                    • alwyn

                      “What is it that motivates you”
                      “I doubt if you are making a difference”

                      You are probably correct. However I come to try and bring enlightenment to the foolish among you.
                      There are, unfortunately many among you of who are foolish.

                      Alas poor Vino You are one of those of whom we can say “There is none so deaf as those that will not hear. None so blind as those that will not see”.
                      Nevertheless you may be able to be saved from your foolishness. In time you may be converted like Saul on the road to Damascus.
                      https://www.thoughtco.com/conversion-of-paul-700197
                      Then as the Bible tells you “and ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall set you free”.

                      Or not, as the case may be.
                      How on earth do people like Brian Tamaki go on in that vein all day?

      • james 18.4.2

        “An analysis of all their election results would have shown you that”

        would this same analysis show that there vote would almost 1/2 also?

        • In Vino 18.4.2.1

          Dumb question. ‘their’, not ‘there’, for one thing. And their vote was halved by Jacinda’s arrival. Labour were down to 23 (was it?) when Greens were high. Those were Labour votes, bound to appear then disappear with a Labour resurgence. Try harder, James.

    • Change their line and support National. It would get them into Government and keep NZF out.

      As usual, right-wingers struggle with the concept of a party that’s based on principle.

      Agree to provide Confidence and Supply to a Labour/NZF Government and accept that they will have no Ministerial roles.

      I wouldn’t put it past Labour to try that, but they’re a guaranteed one term government if they do, so hopefully the people in charge are not that stupid.

  19. Ed 19

    Live
    Peters says you can best judge what he is going to do by what happened this campaign.
    Is he referring to Nat’s dirty tricks against him?

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/340125/live-video-winston-peters-makes-first-post-election-appearance

  20. One Anonymous Bloke 20

    If NZF go into coalition with National, I hope Labour and the Greens put forward a lot of proposed amendments and private members bills that mimic published NZ1st policy, like widening the scope of the BoRA, abolishing Notional Standards and Charter schools, and so-on.

    Make them go back on every single promise they made.

  21. BM 21

    How many special votes are there?

  22. greywarshark 22

    What doesn’t get mentioned in the first call for areas needing attention by anyone is increasing employment, allowing people to get a job. And the governments for decades have prevented NZ business getting on with their business within the economy employing NZs and paying a decent wage. Government has been active in enabling foreign business, import business, take the stage and reduce the percentage available to the home-grown, and also it has acted to reduce wages to third-world level relative to the upper-middle-class.

    Help the Councils, with Task Force Green, help the young with vocational training and a one-year supported job to get started. Help the health system where they can use un- and semi-skilled safely (no building bridges, hospital facilities eg Cave Creek).

    Just get some money and work and basic pre-packaged housing up in a day in recyclable ways. The trained workers could go onto putting up kitset pre-fabs for housing also for schools needing extra classrooms.

    As Micky says about National – a Government practiced in doing the incrementalist absolute minimum about these issues. is spot on. Maybe Winston will be able to light the touch-paper if he decides on National.

    The situation is not all sad for pollies except for the individual Maori parties from this election. I am sorry for Hone Harawira and the Maori Party had made efforts to better Maoris and following National has supported the RW. The sad thing is the lump of petty bourgeois have been unable to marshall their thoughts and decide which way they should vacillate, and so are allowing their position to be weakened by lack of good policy and outright bad, even illegal behaviour by government.

    The British Communist link defines classes:

    I see they consider the petty bourgeois to have no firm cohesion which sums up the support for National I think. All the tradies and aspirationals looking to government for contracted government work in private-public partnerships. This is the real result here of the workings of the trickle-down theory.

    As a worker, the petty bourgeois has interests in common with the proletariat; as owner of means of production, however, he has interests in common with the bourgeoisie. In other words, the petty bourgeoisie has a divided allegiance towards the two decisive classes in capitalist society.

    Thus, the ‘independent’ petty bourgeois producer

    “… is cut up into two persons. As owner of the means of production he is a capitalist; as a labourer he is his own wage- labourer”. (Karl Marx: ‘Theories of Surplus Value’, Part 1; Moscow; undated; p. 395).

    and consequently petty bourgeois “…are for ever vacillating between the proletariat and the bourgeoisie”. (Joseph V. Stalin: ‘The Logic of Facts’, in: ‘Works’, Volume 4; Moscow; 1953; p. 143).

    This divided allegiance between the two decisive classes in modern capitalist society applies also to a section of employed persons — those who are involved in superintendence and the lower levels of management — e.g., foremen, charge-hands, departmental managers, etc. These employees have a supervisory function, a function is to ensure that the workers produce a maximum of surplus value for the employer. On the one hand, such persons are exploited workers, with interests in common with the proletariat (from which they largely spring); on the other hand, their position as agents of the management in supervising the efficient exploitation of their fellow employees gives them interests in common with the bourgeoisie:
    http://www.mltranslations.org/Britain/Marxclass.htm

    Interesting that Joseph V. Stalin wrote stuff in 1953 about this theory. Knowing about theory and classes doesn’t seem to mean that anything is understood and resonates in a humanistic way. He must have just found it useful in helping him to oppress people more effectively.

    • tracey 22.1

      Our current economic system requires unemployment. It is a simple, economics theory, trade off. We can have full employment or low inflation but our current systems wont allow both. This is by design.

      In addition more people have no contract, contracts unilaterally changed and migrants on less than minimum wage than ever before.

      This is also by design. 47% like it this way.

      • greywarshark 22.1.1

        I think that is the message that we should repeat endlessly during this next term, and offer practical alternatives. Face that 47% with their complicity in this outrageous system, and their cowardice in not being willing to step up. That would set some in concrete in their minds, but what difference would that make. We know they are set already. The ones who can be wooed, would be targeted to help them with support for the shock of change.

        I think the comment I put up about the petty bourgeois really does stand being looked at by those of us who haven’t got a grounding in politics and national management. The tradies and contractors have not become capitalists by being self-employed, and merely getting good incomes doesn’t enable you to live separate from society without caring about the hoi polloi.

      • alwyn 22.1.2

        “We can have full employment or low inflation but our current systems wont allow both”.
        The classic exposition of the Phillips’ curve.
        That was a fashionable proposition about 60 years ago Tracey.
        I don’t think you would be able to find any economist who would propose it as being economic theory nowadays though.

  23. Delia 23

    Remember that lolly scramble of bribes Bill gave us the last few weeks, research and note down everyone of them. In case he suffers memory fades like his old mate.

    • tracey 23.1

      Surely the media, especially Audrey Young will have the list of promises. Cos she was drafting that analysis of Nats promises but ran out of time to publish it before the election… (sarcasm)

  24. greywarshark 24

    Listening to Wallace Chapman at BackBenchers with the pollie bunch and someone on business said that they think that a four year cycle would be better, having a longer period between elections meaning that a longer period between the hiatus of eight months as decisions are shelved because of uncertainty.

  25. Cave Johnson 25

    Who from National would make a tolerable Speaker in the event of a Labour led Government?

    • Why would it have to be a National Party person for Speaker?

      • Cave Johnson 25.1.1

        Doesn’t appointing a speaker from your own ranks subtract one from your majority?

        • Draco T Bastard 25.1.1.1

          Don’t think so. If it did then National wouldn’t have been able to pass as much legislation.

          • Cave Johnson 25.1.1.1.1

            Maybe this rule has changed “After the 1993 election, the National Party had a majority of only one seat. The appointment of the Speaker, therefore, presented a problem – if National selected a Speaker from among its own ranks, as was traditional, it would lose its majority, since the Speaker was not permitted to vote at that time. Therefore, Prime Minister Jim Bolger decided to offer the Speaker’s position to a member of the Labour Party, thereby retaining the crucial vote. Tapsell was the person chosen by Bolger for this role.”

            Yep. I just found this “Since the shift to MMP in 1996, however, the Speaker has been counted for the purposes of casting party votes, to reflect the proportionality of the party’s vote in the general election. The practice has also been for the Speaker to participate in personal votes, usually by proxy.”

    • DoublePlusGood 25.2

      Maybe since David Seymour is destined to be left out of all negotiations, they could agree to elect him as speaker so long as he agrees to abstain on confidence and supply?
      Would be pretty ridiculous, but maybe also hilarious.

      • repateet 25.2.1

        That’s it! Speaker Seymour (the youngest ever?) destined to get the pro-forma knighthood after the event.

        (One of the biggest disappointments about Labour not winning was Mallard not getting to be Speaker. Not for his performance but for all the heart attacks when he got his knighthood.)

  26. Sabine 26

    no matter what, National needs NZFirst.

    Labour and the Greens can go to Winston and literally simply ask him if he was honest with his ‘want to change the government’ and together they are the ticket to that, or he can jeopardize his legacy, his party, his reputation by going with National. And chances are that within the year the N/NZF marriage will file for divorce and then what? National between a rock and a hard place. To bad.

    I would not want to be Mr. English today, i hear crow is hard to stomach early in the morning.

    • red-blooded 26.1

      Sabine, let’s remember that in ’96 (and yes, I know that was a long time ago) Peters ran the line that the only way to get rid of a government that he called corrupt and (I think) incompetent was to vote for NZF. Well, I think we all remember the big U-turn and the ridiculous spin that this was OK, as it was no longer the same government.

      • Sabine 26.1.1

        yes, but now is 2017, Winston is a much older man and this might be his last hurrah.

        so yeah, look at the past but don’t expect it to rule your future. And again, L/G don’t have to be the government, they can sit back and let N try to work it out with NZF and have a laugh.

        so yeah, the times are a changing.

        • red-blooded 26.1.1.1

          I’m just pointing out that I think you’re being overconfident. I really hope the left block can put together an agreement with NZF, but I don’t see English having to “eat crow”. He’ll be feeling pretty damn good, at the moment.

          • Sabine 26.1.1.1.1

            it could go both ways. and for what its worth i am one of those that will not be affected by it either way. I just gonna enjoy English having to beg Winston for support and supply as without him its a hung government. So no, he might be posturing but he ain’t feeling good. But hey, what ever makes you feel good. 🙂

  27. cleangreen 27

    It will be interesting to see when the new labour Lead government get to the overnment books, will they find a (real) $11.7 billion hole??????

    It could be that National were hiding lots of secret holes/”deficits” in there .

    So I would not be surprised what labours four independant “economists ” find in the “Government books” when jacinda gives them an oportunity after Labour’s own financial experts go through them first eh?

    Interesting times as is the labour/NZ First pledge to inspect the Pike river mine recovery, that they also find National errors that were made to protect our faleln workers there.

    Lots of blame may sink this toxic National Government as there past finally catches up with them.

    If I was a senior national cabinet minister I to would now be considering my future in Hawaii or some other hiding pace for disgraced National politicians.

  28. Rosemary McDonald 28

    http://www.interest.co.nz/news/89398/nz-firsts-winston-peters-eyes-minimum-wage-increase-20-hour-1575-over-three-years

    ww.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/politics/nz-first-pledge-to-lift-minimum-wage-lower-company-tax/

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11906610

    https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-first-seeks-minimum-wage-20-hour-within-three-years-b-206656

    This NZF policy indicates Winston is philosophically closer to Labour/Green rather than National/Act.

    I sincerely hope that this is utilized as a bridge.

    Yes there will need to be compromises and yes some Labour policies will have to be shelved…especially the Water Tax…but the upside is that this is how MMP works, and the electorate should understand that ditching key policies to facilitate a construction coalition is not flip flopping or backtracking…its just plain MMP political reality.

    A tiny corner heart tells me that NZF will go with Labour/Green….they have worked closely and in harmony on disability issues…no reason why that common ground can’t be extended.

    • Ad 28.1

      Winston Peters was nearly deselected by National way back in the day by a group of five key National MPs. He fought that against his own party in the High Court and won.

      Winston Peters was sacked by Jim Bolger in 1991. For being too cocky and too popular.

      In 1994 he brought massively damaging claims of tax fraud to Parliament in a winebox.

      He definitively broke away from National by forming his own very successful party.

      He broke away from the Shipley government over the partial sale of Wellington airport.

      He formed a very successful coalition with Labour, and i particular got the highly popular SuperGoldCard in place.

      He lost in 2008 with Labour.

      He was undermined by National during this election by the release of sensitive information from National cabinet ministers.

      Winston has a very long memory. He knows which party betrayed him time and again, and which party he was successful with.

    • cleangreen 28.2

      100000% Rosemary, I concur.

    • NewsFlash 28.4

      You’re right, NZF has had a very harmonious relationship with Labour, unlike the destruction of NZF when siding up to National, NZF was nearly destroyed.

      I would have hoped for little more positivity here, Labour hasn’t lost the election, National have, they’ve lost their majority, as Mike More so eloquently pointed out to the daft Hoskings and Barry, they are in the same position as al the other parties.

      The 380k special votes will give L/G a couple more seats, maybe even more, Jacinda, imo has a better than 50% chance of becoming the next PM, so lets not lament on the fact so many don’t care about NZs future (high Nat votes) they still haven’t got a majority, and only time will tell, LETS STAY POSITIVE.

      Duncan Garner pointed out this morning the NZF bill boards asking the question:
      “Had Enough”, so maybe that’s a very positive signal.

  29. Ed 29

    The key moment starts at 13:40….

  30. Incognito 30

    I have mixed feelings about the result.

    On the one hand we’re now down to only four (2 main, 2 minor, and H) parties in Parliament and it is starting to more resemble FPP.

    On the other hand there is no clear majority on either side and the next government will be a coalition by necessity.

    The Green Party is still in Parliament but halved in number.

    National held on to its total vote pretty well after these past 9 years partly because of its manipulative campaign.

    I had hoped for a different outcome this time; plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose …

    • I had hoped for a different outcome this time

      So was I. I was hoping that people would wake up to the constant lying from the National Party, especially after even the MSM cheerleaders were pointing it out, and not vote for them. It is disturbing that so many people support that bald-faced lying.

  31. Carolyn_nth 31

    Dis -affected (almost ex) NZF MP, Richard Prosser (rhymes with?), says Winston will go left in forming a government, if he can
    but also undermines NZF by saying Winston is increasingly erratic and authoritarian.

    NBR and Exceltium guy (think Hooton colleague), Ben Thomas says that there maybe splits in NZF over the next year:

    An outgoing New Zealand First MP [Prosser] has slammed Winston Peters in an extraordinary interview – saying Peters’ behaviour is increasingly erratic and he will form a coalition with Labour if at all possible.


    “I think he will go left if he possibly can. And I think that’s why he didn’t close the door on the Greens. I think if he can work out an accommodation that uses their votes and possibly chucks them a couple of trinkets…and put Labour in, I think he will do that.

    “The simplest thing and obviously what the country wants is for him to just sign up with National and just get on with the job of forming Government. But the nation has obviously indicated a mood for change, and if he can capitalise on that as well there is a lot of utu to go on with him and the Nats.”

    Asked what concessions Peters might push for, Prosser said it would “be more around baubles than policy”.

    “Because the policy goals that are most important to NZ First supporters are anathema to the Nats. And he won’t get those – restrictions on foreign ownership…restrictions on immigration, he won’t get any of those. There may be some minor bits and pieces.”

    • Dis -affected (almost ex) NZF MP, Richard Prosser (rhymes with?), says Winston will go left in forming a government, if he can but also undermines NZF by saying Winston is increasingly erratic and authoritarian.

      Which probably means that Prosser a) thinks too much of himself and b) feels he is being ignored by the NZ1st caucus.

      • alwyn 31.1.1

        Hardly surprising he got a bit upset. He said something that upset Winston and he got dumped down to number 15 on their list.
        You have to admire New Zealand First though. They put 56 people on their list. Even Labour and National only went to 65.
        Mind you, weren’t they the Party who nominated someone on their list once who wasn’t even a citizen?
        I have heard it said that when they used to run Pub raffles first prize was a tray of meat. Second prize was a place on the list.

  32. Sanctuary 32

    Here is one for the older viewers: When was the last election we got to vote on liquor licencing? 1977 or 87 maybe?

    • I remember it was on the 1981 ballot (first time I voted). Can’t remember if it was still there in ’84.

    • millsy 32.2

      The SOL Act 1989 abolished these polls, so 1987, from what I understand.

      Tawa and (somewhere else I cannot remember) still voted on whether to stay dry or not up until 1999 I think.

  33. Cinny 33

    Had a great night last night, a very positive result for West Coast/Tasman electorate. maureen pugh list nat mp received less votes than the last election and our wonderful local MP Damien is back in the house and Labour Party votes were up around 5k in our electorate.

    This election is a win for the opposition parties, it is clear that people want a change of government.

    Special votes are 15% of the total, in 2 weeks time I expected the opposition parties to increase their majority and national to lose another seat.

    Thrilled for Tamati, he’s an awesome man who’s worked so hard, he deserves this and will be a huge asset to Parliament and to those he represents.

    I’d like to see a coalition of the opposition parties.

    • Patricia Bremner 33.1

      I am from Tamati Coffey’s electorate. He worked non stop travelling everywhere, and often supported Jacinda’s visits. He is sincere and we are thrilled for him.

  34. left_forward 34

    Pleased about the result at our local general polling booth for party vote – Labour 43%, Greens 25%, National 20%, NZF 11%! Pity the rest of the country didn’t go this way – haha.

  35. savenz 35

    I think it’s not a bad result. There are so many similar concerns about where this country is heading under National.

    The opposition all had similar concerns. The differences they have is how to implement them and if you can agree a result you want it’s a lot easier to implement a change.

    Those that blame the voters are wrong. By having a 3 way coalition it will avoid the group think that individual parties keep going down that puts off Kiwis from voting for them. National win by cheating, capitalising on voter fear and default.

    Labour/NZ First/Greens all agree for example that housing is an issue. NZ First as well as Labour and Greens believe that reducing immigration and cutting down on foreign speculation is a start to a real solution to the housing shortage.

    Labour wants to have warm dry houses (of course obesity related illness is filling up just as many hospital beds unrelated to housing and warm, dry, houses) but it became a bizarre catch cry for Labour and Greens in a country that camping, trekking and building ones own house used to be celebrated and a significant amount of the voters grew up in damp villas and state houses so it was not really a catch cry they could relate to. In time they might be convinced, but just like insulation with the Greens it can take time to get in the changes in particular in voters minds.

    Labour/NZ First/Greens they all agree on not selling off state houses, reducing immigration and increasing jobs and wages. They all need to lose their ego’s and get a deal together that delivers MOST of what they all agree on that voters voted for, for the sake of the country.

    National will agree anything, but reneg on it later. I’m sure Winston will enjoy teasing them though.

    • Cinny 35.1

      Labour, NZ First and Greens also have similar views on education, all agree on free tertiary education and the scrapping of national standards.

  36. james 36

    What a great election night.

    Very happy to see National come in so strongly on 46% (no specials) to drop just over 1% from the last election and going into their 4th term is amazing.

    58 seats (at the moment) – same as they had when the took government in 2008.

    I thought it was going to be a lot closer than it has turned out to be – but then my prediction was a lot better than some on here.

    Esp those who were saying that English could do worse than the 2002 election.

    I have said for ages that Winston was going to go with Nats – and that JK leaving was the cost.

    I was a little worried when the polls were closing – but it turned out not to be an issue – esp the CB polls which now seem to be waaaaay out.

    But there is no way Winny will put labour as leading the government.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 36.1

      Then you have nothing to worry about 😆

      • james 36.1.1

        Correct – Im not worried. In fact we celebrated quite late into this morning.

        • NewsFlash 36.1.1.1

          What? celebrating that the Nats actually lost the election, no majority any more and now reliant on an enemy of the Nats to support them, you must have had way too much to drink last night to cloud the reality of the outcome, you assume Peters will slide up to National, any bets on that?

          • james 36.1.1.1.1

            yeah – 46% –

            Over 10% more than Labour and more than the greens and labour combined.

            And yes – I assume Peters will side with National – have said that for ages.

            You will also note that my predictions on the election have been a lot closer than a lot of the people on here – so I wouldn’t necessarily take their comments as gospel either.

            • Ad 36.1.1.1.1.1

              The things that National did really well in this campaign are usually things that Labour could never do in a campaign:

              – Target rational self-interest through fear. In particular income tax fears

              – Target rational self-interest through cash. In particular greatly increased first-home buyer grants.

              – Target rational self-interest through rhetoric. You never heard or saw English use the word “vision”, or “direction”, particularly not when “families” was more useful.

              – Attack fiscal competence no matter what. Not possible from Labour to do the reverse in the public mind.

              – By having few policies, encourage Labour to have a vast interlocking suite of them, then attack them for fissures within that. Not possible from Labour to ever do the same.

              – Have superior donors, media proxies, and youth wing. Labour could conceivably outdo them on all of those, but it would be hard.

              Labour needs to play to its own natural advantages, and cure itself of some of its risks. The good news is, for the first time in nine years it looks like the Labour leadership is stable.

            • NewsFlash 36.1.1.1.1.2

              But you admit that National did not win, IE: they lost and now very reliant on a party that the Nats have screwed over and over again, there is less than a 50% chance of National Governing, the most successful coalition with Peters has been with Labour, no amount of Billshit will change that fact, so positive of you to think he will, but I don’t fancy your chances, the Nats have screwed everyone over, so they’ll really have to grovel, but I don’t think that’ll be enough, bye bye Bill.

              • james

                Less than a 50% chance huh?

                I’d call the university you got your statistics degree from and ask for your money back.

                • One Anonymous Bloke

                  Newsflash has a similar level of analysis on this as you do, James: but once you get past making assumptions about Winston Peters. Newsflash offers a fact: the most successful coalition Peters has had to date has been with Labour.

                  As stated before, ask yourself which coalition will enact more of NZ1st’s policy platform.

                  Then admit that you’ve nfi which way Peters will jump, just like the rest of us.

                  • james

                    I’ve been saying which way Winny would go for months and given reasons.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      You’ve taken his policy platform into account? How much of it will National say “yes” to without even breaking a sweat?

                      Kiwisure?

                      Nationalising power companies?

                      Carbon pricing?

                      Extending the BoRA?

                      Scrap Notional Standards drivel?

                      Scrap ACT’s schools?

                      $20 minimum wage?

                      No more ISDS?

                      The list gets longer the more of their policies I read. It puts your certainty into perspective, f’sure.

                    • Cinny

                      James, keen for a wager re Winston? Self imposed ban wager?

                • NewsFlash

                  Statistics don’t form part of the equation, were dealing with Winston Peters, has your memory departed you about the last time Peters sided up with National, it destroyed his party and National, he’ll be thinking very carefully about that, so National still has less than a 50% chance of regaining power after LOSING the election based on historical FACTS.

                  You should be the one asking for your money back, your tutors obviously didn’t teach you the value of FACTUL information and how it relates to REALITY.

                  • james

                    oh – so the 50% is a wild assed guess based on your perceptions, but presented as a fact and a probability %age.

                    Good to know.

                    • NewsFlash

                      You obviously subscribe to Herald, where FACTs don’t exist, the reality is that National don’t have a majority, and the opposition parties do, these are FACTs whether you choose to believe them or not.

                      Precisely what is your assumption based on, certainly not facts, therefore you are the one “making shit up”, just like the Herald aye

                    • Craig H

                      I’d say he has propped up final term governments twice and been smashed both times, so might be thinking hard about that this time.

    • Ben 36.2

      Keep clapping for Tinkerbell James, and all your dreams will come true.

    • Trey 36.3

      If you are correct James and for the sake of the poor and dispossessed in Aotearoa, I sincerely hope you are not then Jarvis Cocker is right and C***TS are still running the world………… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahzNnXex5fY

    • millsy 36.4

      Yeah, well, your boyfriend is irrelevant, and Winston will stop Bill from forcing through any hard right privatization agenda.

      • james 36.4.1

        my boyfriend ?

        You trying to make school yard insults – or homosexual slurs?

      • cleangreen 36.4.2

        100% Millsy, correctly stated Winston wil keep right wing nuts’ honest for a change as he will go with a labour lead government for sure as he cannot risk NZ First being punished in 2020 as tha maori Party was.

        he wants to leave a strong NZ First to live on so James s so fucked up as he has not met Winston as I have recently.

        Sorry James you loose and Ed is right you are a troll.

    • Ed 36.6

      Your tax cut beats helping the poor, the vulnerable, the mental unwell…..
      And you, selfish James, celebrate.
      And you comes on this site to brag and gloat.
      What does that say about you as a human bring?

      • james 36.6.1

        I know that you would prefer everybody to just agree with you Ed, but it the real world people have differing views and opinions.

        The fact that you have difficulty understanding this and have to go with trying to insult just shows your lack of rational thought.

  37. Foreign waka 37

    Fear has won the day. It is sad that Marama did not retain her seat. Unfortunately, the Maori party did not say what they stand for only what the go for (who ever wins, we will go as the tail light?) and this is not a very principled approach.
    I would have liked to see TOP gaining even more support as they and the Greens are the only parties looking further out than just 3 years. We have to start thinking, dear I say it, 20 or more years ahead. With the divide getting bigger, corruption getting stronger, oligarchs influencing politics and robotics demolishing workplaces the challenges are plentiful. Obviously, the young ones don’t get it otherwise we would have seen a different picture.
    Not happy if Paula Bennett and Nick Smith are in Parliament. Their character flaws are for the blind to see.
    Lets wait for the special votes whether they will change anything.

  38. swordfish 38

    National dropped one point to 46%. But there will have been some movement of the vote as the Conservative’s 4% of the vote has disappeared. This probably mostly went to National which in turn shed votes to Labour.

    Biiiiiig Right to Left swing

    Lab+Green

    2014 (Election Night)
    34.7%

    2017 (Election Night)
    41.7%
    Up 7 points

    .

    Right Bloc (Govt Parties + Cons)

    2014 (Election Night)
    54.4%

    2017 (Election Night)
    47.9%
    Down 6.5 points

    .

    Govt Bloc (not including Cons)

    2014 (Election Night)
    50.3%

    2017 (Election Night)
    47.7%
    Down 2.6 points

    .

    National

    2014 (Election Night)
    48.1%

    2017 (Election Night)
    46.0%
    Down 2.1 points

    .

    Right vs Oppo

    2014 (Election Night) … 2017 (Election Night)
    Right … 54.4% .. …… … ……. 47.9% … … Down 6.5 points
    Oppo … 43.6% .. … … ………. 49.2% .. …. Up 5.6 points

    2014 Right lead by 10.8 points
    2017 Oppo lead by 1.3 points

    • james 38.1

      Interesting.

      But your “headline” is right to left swing.

      But you are ‘guessing’ (perhaps wishfully) that NZFirst are ‘left’

      edit – If NZFirst go with Nats – then wouldnt that make a bigger swing to the right?

      *as a note – BTW – I always enjoy all your work on the figures and find them extremely interesting.

    • eco maori 38.2

      Well all nationals face book ads and lies convinced the naive to vote national

      • james 38.2.1

        Or they had their own reasons – you (like any of us) have no idea why people voted for different parties.

        But (assuming you are eco maori / Kiwi) you predictions were waaaaaaaaay off.

        Labour 50 %
        Greens 15 %
        Maori P 6 %

    • Incognito 38.3

      Yes, the numbers don’t lie but I don’t feel jubilant, no vibes at all in fact, only a huge anti-climax.

  39. Karen 39

    I feel desperately sad that we do not have the Labour/Green government I had hoped for and worked for. The left (Greens and Labour) made a few mistakes in their campaigns but the main reason they (we) lost was that too many voters believed the lies spread by the right. Act, National and the Māori Party all lied – repeatedly and without compunction in the MSM, on Facebook, in public meetings. It was impossible to correct all the misinformation.

    The enthusiasm with which the Māori Party, and their ally One Pacific, indulged in this dirty politics campaign made me very pleased they failed to win a single seat.
    Marama Fox’s nasty response to the loss and and Flavell’s statement this morning on Q & A that English deserved another 3 years reinforced my belief that the Māori Party need to have a really good look at themselves. These tweets from Cannibality sum it up I think.

    ☭ emmy ︻┳デ═—‏ @cannibality 5h5 hours ago

    “Every day the Māori Party sat at the Nats’ table, supporting policies which have objectively killed our babies, they abandoned us.

    The Māori Party abandoned Māori long before the Māori electoral roll abandoned the Māori Party.

    Our people got poorer and poorer and our tamariki got sicker and sicker and you would. not. fucking. turn. left.

    the rhetoric keeps being this bitter ‘you didn’t support us’ from the Māori Party. Youre the ones who sat in a toxic coalition for a decade.

    Māori babies: *lungs rotting, full of black mold spores from overcrowded rentals*
    Māori party: we had a seat at the table but u let us down

    Māori babies: *hearts splitting open from rheumatic fever*
    Te Ururoa Flavell: National is doing a good job, 3 more years”

    • weka 39.1

      One of the best post-election comments I’ve seen Karen, thanks.

    • Rosemary McDonald 39.2

      Karen, you’ve managed to articulate my thoughts almost exactly.

      If ever there was a politician who really, really deserved the public humiliation of such a absolute rejection by their electorate it is Marama Fox.

      Her tone, her words and the look on her face as she blamed…not herself and the rest of the campaign team for horribly misreading the mood of the people for the total loss…but, the voters themselves for not being ‘educated’ enough to see how strategic and beneficial to Maori the relationship with National has been. And toxic Tuku thought he had it in the bag and that cousin Nanaia was out….goodness me, even this dumb pakeha knows that the ‘Tuku says jump, we asked how high? rule exists only in his own mind.

      Flavell looked like he had been betrayed by the voters….wtf?

      Hubris, Maori Party, hubris.

    • Rosemary McDonald 39.3

      and an update…https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/97185566/fox-vows-mori-party-will-fight-on-after-labours-clean-sweep-of-mori-seats

      (great spelling in your header stuff!)

      Fox changes her lyrics….

      “Fox believed the Māori Party’s demise came down to people wanting a change. Working with National had meant her party had lost favour with those it represented.

      “We’ve been tarred by the same brush, by sitting at the same table.” ”

      No shit, Sherlock.

      • Craig H 39.3.1

        Much better than her suggestion that Maori voting Labour was like going back to an abusive partner…

  40. NewsFlash 40

    This game is not over, there really is a good chance of a Labour led Govt, better than 50%, we just need to remain calm and carry on, we know Winston is a little volatile, and he did loose his seat in Northland, very close at some points but lost by 1000 or so in the end, but James Shaw pointed out the opposition parties now have the majority, that is a reality, no matter how others try to spin it.

    • james 40.1

      Whats the maths that gives us the better than 50% chance?

      You know just saying it dosnt make it true right?

    • james 40.2

      “but James Shaw pointed out the opposition parties now have the majority, that is a reality, no matter how others try to spin it.”

      He is of course correct.

      But its also true that all the parties other than Labour-greens combo have a bigger majority. (and there is a better than 60% chance of that 😉 )

      • One Anonymous Bloke 40.2.1

        Here’s how I’d weight it:

        1. Which coalition will enact more NZ1st policy? 1% weighting.
        2. Which coalition has NZ1st had a more constructive relationship with? 1% weighting.
        3. Winston. 98% weighting

        So the odds that Winston will go with Labour & the Greens are somewhere around 13:12.

        In other words, you may as well read tea-leaves.

      • NewsFlash 40.2.2

        The reality is that National lost the election, there is NO question of that, otherwise National would be celebrating, and they aren’t, so until Peters makes up his mind it’s anybody’s, but my view from historical data is that the risk for Peters with National too high, subsequently a less than 50% chance for them, bye bye Bill.

        James, you have to admit that NZF and National coalition has been an absolute disaster, that is a FACT, not a stat, you really can not deny it.

        • james 40.2.2.1

          “but my view from historical data”

          Please share it – would love to see this “data”.

          • NewsFlash 40.2.2.1.1

            James, has your memory departed you? or can’t you remember the last time NZF and National shared Government, if you can’t remember that far back, then perhaps you should try Googling it to refresh your memory about the tragic outcome, it is well documented, or again, do want to disregard the facts for your own version of the truth?

            • Grey Area 40.2.2.1.1.1

              FFS! Ignore him, PLEASE. You are not dealing with a rational human being.

            • james 40.2.2.1.1.2

              “but my view from historical data”

              So … you dont have data then. rest is just a cool story bro.

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                Peters’ experience of “working” “with” National isn’t relevant? I can see why you would rather it didn’t exist, but hey, tough.

              • Grey Area

                Troll Alert! Oops broken my own rule.

                Standardistas. Please remember those of us who visit often but post rarely. Replying to posters like James and Alwyn is a lost cause. They are not interested in debate. Diversion and obfuscation is their game.

                Please, for the benefit of those of us who come here for stimulation and encouragement – don’t feed the trolls!

              • repateet

                The logic you use about data and remembering or not is really funny.

                You don’t want bullshit to be put to you so you demand some sort of ‘proof’ or reference or anything, to give credibility to claims.

                John Key swam very often in the sea of not remembering and of course Bill English and Steven Joyce are ardent and regular purveyors of information which fall way short of what you’re expecting on here.

                In simple words:
                How come those who you think are so marvellous can peddle bullshit to their hearts content with your encouragement and your don’t want allow others the same luxury? Maybe what’s confusing you is that your system is now conditioned to not being able to tolerate truth.

        • alwyn 40.2.2.2

          “The reality is that National lost the election”.
          I’ll bet you are the sort of person who said that Usain Bolt lost the 2016 Olympic 100 meter race because his time was slower than in the 2012 event.

          • NewsFlash 40.2.2.2.1

            Alwyn

            Nats can’t form a Govt on Monday because they lost there Mandate, there is no guarantee of a coalition with any party, therefore they have lost, they may manage an agreement with NZF or NOT

            • alwyn 40.2.2.2.1.1

              I suppose I could simply say, using most of your last sentence.
              “Labour may manage an agreement with NZF or NOT”
              I think Winnie will go with whoever gives him the most baubles.
              At the moment I incline to think that will be Labour. They are the most desperate when they have to consider spending 12 years in opposition.
              They are also the easiest for Winston to dominate and the ones who will most readily sacrifice their own policies.

  41. eco maori 41

    Its all good I will use my daughter’s devices

  42. chris73 42

    Well now that was certainly an interesting result, to score 46% when going for a fourth term is very impressive, not that the left would ever admit of course

    Nationals going to have swallow a few dead rats, some large (Pike river), some small (port moving to Northland) and some not so bad at all (referendum on Maori seats)

    What else will Winston ask for I wonder…sorry I mean Sir Winston

    But more importantly no matter the result The Billdozer has erased 2002 with this performance, hell Labour/Greens together still can’t top National (change wanted yeah right)

    • In Vino 42.1

      Beware. With that dumb post you may yet have formed the basis of an irony. We just don’t know yet, and you have rushed in…

    • repateet 42.2

      Port moving to Northland small????????????????

      Most people in Northland did not vote for that anyway. Winston can legitimately take it off the table.

      • Cave Johnson 42.2.1

        The folks of Northland and Whangarei might have missed an opportunity there…

        • Rosemary McDonald 42.2.1.1

          Bryderwyns….

          “Though not of great height (reaching only some 450 metres) it is a notable feature of the Northland Region’s geography, not least because it is traversed by State Highway 1, which is forced to follow a tortuous route for some distance as it descends to the south. The small settlement of Brynderwyn lies at the southern foot of the hills, at the junction of SH1 and SH12. There are different walks of up to 10 km giving views of the Whangarei Heads, Bream Bay and out to sea.[1]

          The hills were the site of New Zealand’s worst road accident.[2] On 7 February 1963, a bus crashed after losing its brakes nearing the top of the southern descent, killing 15 of the 35 people on board.”

          Wikipedia.

          • Cave Johnson 42.2.1.1.1

            I drive the Brynderwyns regularly but I think the land transport plan for a container port was based on rail. Auckland Mayor Phil Goff also supports the plan, as do some experienced port workers.

    • millsy 42.3

      You wont get the Randian Utopia that you desire though. That is dead and buried. National will have to stop its under the radar privatisation plan (at least).

  43. Kat 43

    So far 54% did not vote for National. After the specials it could be less. So in keeping with the protocols of MMP it will be who can form a working govt not which singular party has the most votes.

    Winston will form a working govt with the best long term interests for NZF and MMP. That he has stated that publicly today is what is going to give those that thought they were in a FPP election many sleepless nights over the next few weeks.

  44. Sparky 44

    I do not think this is bitter sweet at all. The fact is I’d say Labour the Greens and NZ First do not in any way represent the right. Fact is the right has been wiped out in terms of party spread with only National left in play. The left still has a good diverse based of support spread across parties which is healthy for a democratic system based on negotiation.

    What’s more heartening if you do the math the majority of voters don’t want more of the right which is great to see.

    Of course what NZ First do is crucial but they would do well to consider who voted for them and what that means for them now and in the future.

    As a supporter I hope they choose to stay with the left. That said its down to Labour and the Greens to offer them something to make it worth their while and keep their promises to voters like myself.

  45. Labour_Voter 45

    I am wondering whether it is better to leave this out for a 4th term National – NZ First government to self destruct and sweep the 2020 election with Jacinda as the PM with a clear Labour-Green majority? Then Labour can easily secure 3 or even 4 terms.

    Otherwise Labour-Green with NZ First this term could be extremely difficult with Winston clearly going to keep Greens out of cabinet and that could drive Greens crazy,

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 45.1

      I can’t help wonder this too.

      3 more years of a dying National government will literally mean more vulnerable people die. But if a weak Labour / Green / NZ1 coalition forms and fails, we might go back to an even longer period of neoliberal looting in just three short years.

      I am starting to think the answer may come from outside of New Zealand – a Corbyn or Sanders-like win in a major western democracy might light the way and prove that there are much better alternatives to neoliberal TINA.

  46. millsy 46

    You have to love Gareth Morgan’s crocodile tears about ‘self interest’ and ‘looking after the other person’.

    I bet you he paid those researchers big bucks to delete every trace of his 1990’s columns from the Web. Especially those ones that said that workers prior to 1991’s ECA were ‘overpaid’.

  47. Michael 47

    “It feels like we are in a country that is completely divided. One half want tax cuts and do not care about how their neighbour’s kids are doing and the other half think it is a travesty that we have a housing crisis, a poverty crisis and an environmental crisis and a Government practiced in doing the incrementalist absolute minimum about these issues.”
    Labour must decide which half it represents and lead from there. It hasn’t given up trying to appear all things to all people. That’s why it’s in opposition for yet another term.

  48. Ha ! ,… the ‘ National ‘ party ,…

    About as ‘ national’ as Benedict Arnold or Tricky Dicky Nixon.

    Cracking the Bigfoot Code (ThinkerThunker) – YouTube
    sasquatch code▶ 8:49

  49. cleangreen 50

    James has lost the plot, he is very scarry.

    He is a Natz troll, living in the dream that “if you keep repeating a lie more often than not it becomes the truth.”

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