The failing polls..
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4:58 pm, October 16th, 2010 - 12 comments
Categories: community democracy, democratic participation, election 2011, labour, polls, telecommunications, vote smart -
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An article in The Economist looks at the failing basis of polling techniques in the USA. It isn’t that much different to the circumstances here.
THEY are used to determine spending on political campaigns, to guide tactical voting and to enthuse or cow voters. News outlets, bloggers and activists cannot get enough of them. Candidates live and die by them. But even pollsters are worried that many of the political polls in individual races unveiled in the run-up to the mid-term elections in November may be inaccurate. “We’re in a dark age for polling,” says Jay Leve, boss of SurveyUSA, a polling firm. “It’s a very uncertain time.”
The immediate problem is the rapid growth in the number of people who have only a mobile phone, and are thus excluded from surveys conducted by landline. About a quarter of Americans are now “cellphone-onlys” (CPOs) in the industry jargon, and this poses both practical and statistical difficulties. They are less likely to answer their phones, and less likely to participate in a survey when they do, says Frank Newport of Gallup, another polling firm. They often retain their telephone numbers, including the area code, when they move from state to state, so it is hard to know where they are. And it costs more to call a mobile phone in the first place.
This is exactly the same problem that is steadily undermining the statistical validity of polls in NZ. I’ve been involved in doing the numbers and canvassing in Labour for decades, and we see exactly the same issues. The significant difference here is that we are probably a lot further along. As well as the CPO’s we also have an awfully large number of urban centre people whose land-line is unlisted. This is largely the inevitable result of telemarketing – which was why I unlisted my phone number almost 20 years ago.
Pollsters can always “rinse” their data to try to correct such flaws. As Mr Newport of Gallup points out, most firms produced reasonably accurate findings ahead of this year’s primaries. It helps that the sort of people who do not have landlines are also the sort who tend to turn out in relatively low numbers in mid-term elections, notes Scott Keeter of the Pew Centre.
Which isn’t going to last. The CPO’s tend to vote more as they get older. In NZ the percentage of people with listed land-lines is currently pretty static in the over 45’s and starts falling away dramatically in people who are younger to very small percentages in the 20-25 age group. The actual profile is different in different areas. But when I first noticed it over 15 years ago the tipping point was in people in the 30-35 age group.
In the central Auckland electorates the number of households with listed phone numbers is now typically less than 60% and falling rapidly, whereas those in rural or more technically conservative areas can be over 80% but falling slowly.
Furthermore with the advent of caller id onto most phones, you get technophiles like me using it to screen calls. I don’t pick up if I don’t know who the caller is. They can leave a message because they’re probably not important to me.
If I’m doing anything like coding, moderating, or writing a post – I won’t answer even if I know who it is (unless it is family). Anyone that actually knows me also knows that they should e-mail or txt – it is far less disruptive to my work flow and limited leisure time. I hate having to disrupt my concentration. Of course I’m probably somewhat extreme and living around the bleeding edge. But other people are starting to head the same way…
But even if fears of a systematic bias prove unfounded, the fuss about CPOs points to a broader problem for pollsters: the ever-increasing difficulty of persuading Americans to take part in political polls. The proportion of those called who end up taking part in a survey has fallen steadily, from 35% or so in the 1990s to 15% or less now, according to Mr Keeter. Reaching young people is especially difficult. Only old ladies answer the phone, complains Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican polling firm.
Of course this isn’t just a problem for the pollsters.
It is also an issue for political parties canvassing to get a feel for voters in particular areas. Canvassing is a good tool for both getting to know the details of your electorate, and for convincing people to get out to vote. Typically you not only activate the person you talk to, but also those to whom they talk about it.
When campaigners of the left are doing their planning in the next few months they need to think about the limits for different canvassing strategies. Phone canvassing is a relatively cheap and effective tool because it allows wider coverage across our rather large electorates of fifty thousand potential voters. But we also need to seek out the pockets of people who are not on a listed land-line.
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- Release: Alarm as Government signals further blow to school lunchesMore essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...1 week ago
- Release: Quick, submit – stop Govt’s dodgy approvals billThe Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...1 week ago
- Government throws coal on the climate crisis fireThe Government’s policy announced today to ease consenting for coal mining will have a lasting impact across generations. ...1 week ago
- Release: Public transport costs to double as National looks at unaffordable roading project insteadCancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...1 week ago
- Release: Cost of living in Auckland still not a priorityA laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...1 week ago
- Greens look to fast-track submissions on harmful lawThe Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt should stop making people’s lives harder and build more homesThe National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Melissa Lee missing in action on mediaThe action Melissa Lee promised to protect democracy and the media sector is missing, Media and Communications spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...2 weeks ago
- Landlord Government leaves little hope for rentersThe Government’s announcement on tenancy rules prove that it does not care about renters. ...2 weeks ago
- Opportunity to build a more sustainable economyGreen Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...2 weeks ago
- Significant step forward in fixing cruel and unjust pastA significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...2 weeks ago
- Missed opportunity but NZ will surely one day recognise the right to a sustainable environmentNew Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Don’t cut our lunches – clear message sent to GovernmentTens of thousands of people are demanding the Government commits to fully funding free and healthy school lunches. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt makes U-turn on Suicide Prevention OfficeLabour welcomes the Government’s U-turn on the closure of the Suicide Prevention Office, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...2 weeks ago
- CCC issues warning over further climate delayToday’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...2 weeks ago
- Luxon targets lame and lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...2 weeks ago
- Luxon targets are lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Commitment to disability communities missing from Govt prioritiesMinister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...2 weeks ago
- Methane target review is dangerous duplicationThe Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Government must commit to school building project for disabled studentsThe Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: National must take mental health seriouslyMental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...3 weeks ago
- PM announces changes to portfolios
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...19 hours ago - New catch limits for unique fishery areasRecreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...23 hours ago
- Minister welcomes hydrogen milestoneEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...2 days ago
- Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment BillThe coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...2 days ago
- Overseas decommissioning models consideredOverseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...2 days ago
- Release of North Island Severe Weather Event InquiryEmergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...2 days ago
- Justice Minister to attend Human Rights CouncilJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...3 days ago
- Patterson reopens world’s largest wool scouring facilityAssociate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...3 days ago
- Speech to the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective Summit, 18 April 2024Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...3 days ago
- Government to introduce revised Three Strikes lawThe Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...3 days ago
- New diplomatic appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...3 days ago
- Humanitarian support for Ethiopia and SomaliaNew Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...3 days ago
- Arts Minister congratulates Mataaho CollectiveMinister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...4 days ago
- Supporting better financial outcomes for KiwisThe Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...4 days ago
- Trade relationship with China remains strong“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...4 days ago
- PM’s South East Asia mission does the businessPrime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...5 days ago
- $41m to support clean energy in South East AsiaNew Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...6 days ago
- Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder listThe Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...6 days ago
- Judicial appointments announcedAttorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...6 days ago
- Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in SingaporeEducation Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...6 days ago
- Value of stopbank project proven during cycloneA stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...6 days ago
- Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visitForeign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...6 days ago
- Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac DayScience, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...6 days ago
- Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the PhilippinesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...6 days ago
- Government commits $20m to Westport flood protectionThe Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...7 days ago
- Taupō takes pole positionThe Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...7 days ago
- Cost of living support for low-income homeownersLocal Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...7 days ago
- Government backing mussel spat projectThe Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...7 days ago
- Government focused on getting people into workBenefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...7 days ago
- Clean energy key driver to reducing emissionsThe Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...7 days ago
- Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forwardThe Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...1 week ago
- Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic PartnershipPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...1 week ago
- Government consults on extending coastal permits for portsRMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...1 week ago
- Inflation coming down, but more work to doToday’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...1 week ago
- School attendance restored as a priority in health adviceRefreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...1 week ago
- Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sectorOceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...1 week ago
- Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International CongressAssociate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...1 week ago
- Removing red tape to help early learners thriveThe Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...1 week ago
- RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tapeChanges to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...1 week ago
- McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationshipTrade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...1 week ago
- Seize the day
While Anzac Day has experienced a resurgence in recent years, our other day of remembrance has slowly faded from view. The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand. Original illustrations by Hope McConnell. First published in 2022. The high school’s head girl and ...3 hours ago - The first, forgotten Anzacs, more than 50 years before GallipoliAustralian and New Zealand volunteers fought together in the Waikato War, yet still its place in the Anzac tradition is unacknowledged by our defence forces or Returned Services Association. First published in 2018. When I was a boy cub I attended Anzac Day services in the South Auckland suburb of ...3 hours ago
- Poem for Anzac Day: ‘Hoki Mai’ by Tayi TibbleA poem by Wellington writer Tayi Tibble. Hoki Mai She kisses him goodbye with her eyes still wet and alight from their last swim in the Awatere river. At the train station celebration, she leads the Kapa Haka but her voice keeps breaking under and over itself like waves. ...3 hours ago
- Poem for Anzac Day: ‘My World War I Poem’ by Bill ManhireA poem from Bill Manhire’s 2017 book of verse Some Things to Place in a Coffin. My World War I Poem Inside each trench, the sound of prayer. Inside each prayer, the sound of digging. Image courtesy of Auckland War Memorial Museum. ...3 hours ago
- Book of the Week: Talia Marshall on living legend Ngāhuia Te Awekōtuku
There are three books I have wolfed down in one sitting over the last two years. Colleen Maria Lenihan’s gorgeous and sad debut Kōhine, Noelle McCarthy’s memoir Grand about becoming her mother and then unbecoming her, and now Hine Toa, a staunch yet gentle self-portrait by living legend Ngāhuia te ...3 hours ago - Newsroom daily quiz, Thursday 25 AprilLoading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Thursday 25 April appeared first on Newsroom. ...3 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Thursday 25 AprilThe post Daily crossword, Thursday 25 April appeared first on Newsroom. ...3 hours ago
- High Court overturns Waitangi Tribunal summons to Minister for Children Karen Chhour
The minister was due to give evidence on Friday regarding the government's plans to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act ...11 hours ago - Sydney University students set up Gaza solidarity camp as war marks 200 days
Asia Pacific Report Students and activist staff at Australia’s University of Sydney (USyd) have set up a Gaza solidarity encampment in support of Palestinians and similar student-led protests in the United States. The camp was pitched as mass graves, crippled hospitals, thousands of civilian deaths and the near-total destruction of ...12 hours ago - Most bees don’t die after stinging – and other surprising bee factsSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James B. Dorey, Lecturer in Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong Australian teddy bear bees are cute and fluffy, but get a look at that massive (unbarbed) stinger! James Dorey Photography Most of us have been stung by a bee and we ...13 hours ago
- How Anzac deaths changed the way we mourn to this daySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jen Roberts, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities and Social Inquiry, University of Wollongong Aussie~mobs/Flickr Victor Farr, a private in the 1st Infantry Battalion, was among the first to land at Anzac Cove just before dawn on April 25 1915. Victor Farr ...13 hours ago
- Sugar gums have a reputation as risky branch-droppers but they’re important to bees, parrots and p...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne Gregory Moore I had the good fortune to care for the sugar gum at The University of Melbourne’s Burnley Gardens in Victoria where I worked for ...13 hours ago
- Inflation is slowly falling, while student debt is climbing: 6 graphs that explain today’s CPISource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra BagzhanSadvakassov/Upsplash, CC BY-SA Australia’s inflation rate has fallen for the fifth successive quarter, and it’s now less than half of what it was back in late 2022. ...13 hours ago
- Our housing system is broken and the poorest Australians are being hardest hitSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Ong ViforJ, ARC Future Fellow & Professor of Economics, Curtin University Just when we think the price of rentals could not get any worse, this week’s Rental Affordability Snapshot by Anglicare has revealed low-income Australians are facing a housing crisis like ...13 hours ago
- ‘It bucked our lads up wonderfully’: the lightning-quick WWI battle that marked the birth of the...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meighen McCrae, Associate Professor of Strategic & Defence Studies, Australian National University American and Australian stretcher bearers working together near the front line during the Battle of Hamel in 1918. Australian War Memorial While the AUKUS alliance is new, the Australian-American partnership ...13 hours ago
- Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tracey Holmes, Professorial Fellow in Sport, University of Canberra When the news broke last weekend that 23 Chinese swimmers had tested positive to a banned drug in early 2021 and were allowed to compete at the Tokyo Olympic Games six months later ...13 hours ago
- First Nations Anzacs sacrificed life and limb for Country. Why aren’t their stories shown onscreen...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cally Jetta, Senior Lecturer and Academic Lead; College for First Nations, University of Southern Queensland Australian War Memorial Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander readers are advised this article contains names and images of deceased people, as well as sensitive historical information ...13 hours ago
- NZ’s Media Minister Melissa Lee demoted after Newshub crisisRNZ News Melissa Lee has been ousted from New Zealand’s coalition cabinet and stripped of the Media portfolio, and Penny Simmonds has lost the Disability Issues portfolio in a reshuffle. Climate Change and Revenue Minister Simon Watts will take Lee’s spot in cabinet. Simmonds was a minister outside of cabinet. ...13 hours ago
- Our tall, wet forests were not open and park-like when colonists arrived – and we shouldn’t be b...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Lindenmayer, Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University laurello/Shutterstock Some reports and popular books, such as Bill Gammage’s Biggest Estate on Earth, have argued that extensive areas of Australia’s forests were kept open through frequent burning by ...14 hours ago
- Aces in their places: Luxon plays coy over ministers' competenceAnalysis - Christopher Luxon framing the demotion of two ministers as the portfolios getting "too complex" is a charitable way of saying they weren't up to the job. ...14 hours ago
- Politics with Michelle Grattan: Economist Chris Richardson on an ‘ugly’ inflation result and the...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra With Jim Chalmers’s third budget on May 14, Australians will be looking for some more cost-of-living relief – beyond the tax cuts – although they have been warned extra measures will be modest. As ...14 hours ago
- Melissa Lee’s media Hail Mary comes up shortAnalysis: Melissa Lee has lost the media portfolio and her spot in Cabinet after multiple failed attempts to find solutions for a media industry in crisis. On Wednesday, the Prime Minister announced Lee would be losing her spot in Cabinet along with her media and communications ministerial portfolio. The job ...14 hours ago
- Northland council continues four-year Māori ward fight in face of government changesA council that played a key role in getting Māori ward polling removed is now lobbying against government plans to reinstate binding referendums. ...14 hours ago
- Education Ministry cuts: Roles providing support for disabled kids among those proposed to be axedLeaked documents show which divisions will bear the brunt of hundreds of proposed job cuts at the Ministry of Education. ...15 hours ago
- Land Information New Zealand proposes 57 job cutsIt is the latest department to announce job cuts as part of the government's cost-cutting measures. ...15 hours ago
- Watch: Government's 'wheels are falling off already', Hipkins says, after ministers d...The Labour leader says the demotion of two ministers today shows the PM "didn't have particularly good judgement". ...16 hours ago
- The stories of Australia’s Muslim Anzacs have long been forgotten. It’s time we honour themSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Wilmot, Senior Lecturer, Film, Deakin University Among the many Australian who served during the second world war, there is a small group of people whose stories remain largely untold. These are the Muslim men and women who, while small in number, ...16 hours ago
- National emergency response facing 26 separate inquiries: What have we learnedThe country's emergency response is besieged by inquiries, despite years of reviews and efforts to make laws that deliver. ...16 hours ago
- Sexual assault victims give evidence in court, but alleged perpetrators don’t have to. Bruce Lehrm...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kelly Saunders, PhD Candidate, University of Canberra There has been much analysis and praise of Justice Michael Lee’s recent judgement in Bruce Lehrmann’s defamation case against Channel Ten. Many people were openly relieved to read Lee’s “forensic” and “nuanced” application of law ...17 hours ago
- What’s the difference between ADD and ADHD?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathy Gibbs, Program Director for the Bachelor of Education, Griffith University zEdward_Indy/Shutterstock Around one in 20 people has attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). It’s one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders in childhood and often continues into adulthood. ADHD is diagnosed ...17 hours ago
- Watch: Government's 'wheels are falling off already', Hipkins says, after minsters de...The Labour leader says the demotion of two ministers today shows the PM "didn't have particularly good judgement". ...17 hours ago
- Anti-Poverty Groups Urge New Minister For Disability Issues To Reverse Funding Cuts
The Fairer Future coalition of anti-poverty groups say Whaikaha must be properly funded going forward, and that to argue that poor financial management of the new Ministry is a red herring by the Prime Minister. ...18 hours ago - New Media Minister Must Rule Out State Intervention In Private MediaThe Taxpayers’ Union is today congratulating Hon. Paul Goldsmith on his appointment as Minister for Media and Communications and urges him to rule out state intervention in the private media sector. ...18 hours ago
- OPM leader’s open letter condemns Australia’s ‘treachery’ over PapuaAsia Pacific Report The West Papuan resistance OPM leader has condemned Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and US President Joe Biden, accusing their countries of “six decades of treachery” over Papuan independence. The open letter was released today by OPM chairman Jeffrey P Bomanak on the eve of ANZAC Day ...18 hours ago
- ‘Emily Dickinson made me into a writer’: Lauren Groff on the power of readingWelcome to The Spinoff Books Confessional, in which we get to know the reading habits and quirks of New Zealanders at large. This week: writer and one of Time Magazine’s 100 most influential people of 2024, Lauren Groff. The book I wish I’d written If I wish I’d written a ...18 hours ago
- Watch live: Chris Hipkins speaks after ministers Melissa Lee, Penny Simmonds lose portfoliosThe Labour leader speaks from Parliament after the prime minister's sudden Cabinet reshuffle. ...18 hours ago
- What kind of diner are you? 6 types of diners who avoid plant-based meat dishesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Fechner, Research Fellow, Social Marketing, Griffith University mavo/Shutterstock Imagine having dinner at a restaurant. The menu offers plant-based meat alternatives made mostly from vegetables, mushrooms, legumes and wheat that mimic meat in taste, texture and smell. Despite being given that ...18 hours ago
- Auckland University Criminologist Slams ‘Racist’ Three Strikes Law“Three Strikes is a dead-end policy proposed by a dead-end government. The Three Strikes law ignores the causes of crime, instead just brutalising people already crushed by the cost of living.” ...18 hours ago
- Australia-born judge facing potential deportation from KiribatiBy Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist An Australian-born judge in Kiribati could well face deportation later this week after a tribunal ruling that he should be removed from his post. The tribunal’s report has just been tabled in the Kiribati Parliament and is due to be debated by MPs ...19 hours ago
- Can Body-Worn Cameras Work In Australia And New Zealand? Lessons From Milestone’s Denmark SurveyWith its clear mandate for police use, political nuances, and nuanced public trust, Denmark's insights provide valuable considerations for Australia and New Zealand. ...19 hours ago
- Media Minister Melissa Lee demoted from Cabinet, Penny Simmonds stripped of portfolioMelissa Lee has been stripped of the Media portfolio, while Penny Simmonds has lost the Disability Issues role. Follow as the PM explains. ...19 hours ago
- Climate change and human rights: how a landmark legal victory in Europe could affect NZSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vernon Rive, Associate Professor of Law, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images A seven-year campaign by a group of over 2,000 Swiss women – average age 73 – recently ended with a European Court of Human Rights decision variously ...20 hours ago
- Page-turning rural gothic: Ash by Louise Wallace, reviewedBooks editor Claire Mabey reviews poet Louise Wallace’s debut novel. A famous poet once said to me that he’s always suspicious when a poet publishes a novel. I never really understood why but maybe it’s something to do with cheating on your first form. Louise Wallace is a poet. She’s ...20 hours ago
- Lower catch limits in force for Fiordland, Chatham IslandsNew catch limits in Fiordland mean recreational fishers will only be able to take much smaller bags of finfish and shellfish. ...20 hours ago
- New emergency management legislation delayed after bill pulled by GovernmentThe bill was introduced by the previous government in June last year. ...21 hours ago
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Canvassing might have to start up in shopping malls to get a true picture of polling trends if CPOs are the way of the future, although I think that many of the younger set are toally apolitical and will only start to make choices when things start to bite them hard – nothing like a bit of discomfort to galvanise opinion and action.
It is one of those strange recurring trends in my observation. Every generation in history tends to be apolitical until they start having kids of their own.
But it isn’t just me. You find the same observation throughout history. I’d look some up, but I’m being repeatably urged to cook dinner (Damnit!!).
The shopping malls are the new High Street: with one major differance; they are privately owned by two Australian Companies.
AMP and Westfield control our high Streets and will not allow canvassing in malls.
We have done “walk throughs” in Lynn Mall but get hassle from security and management when if we hang around to canvas.
My brother has a different technique to deal with invasive polling. He lies through his teeth to the interviewer.
I was once polled by the local National party. They first asked me whether I knew the name of the departing National MP. I answered correctly.
The interviewer then asked whether I knew the name of the new National candidate.
When I asked whether she had already forgotten the name of that illustrious worthy, the interviewer suddenly realised she was in fact talking to the Labour candidate.
That must have been a joyous occasion – it made my day…
That event was either a completely random act of God or whichever deity is in control having a bit of fun …
The big problem with polling is that it tends to become self fulfilling. And current trends tend to count out the younger and poorer, thereby emphasising the support for the parties supporting the wealthy, that is National and Act.
In 2008 much of the malaise for Labour was created by the polling suggesting that Labour could not win. Eventually it became true.
In 2005 the last Colmar Brunton before election day suggested National would win by 6 points, Labour won by 2.
And the Auckland mayoral polls were pretty screwy. I thought that they were a consequence of odd questions and strange datasets but the answer could be they did not poll those who supported Len in spades, that is the poor and young.
Another factor is the type of political polling. I have been polled locally by both major parties and by national organisations as well. One such was a commercial organisation who sent a booklet which had a raft of good political questions followed by another ten minutes of commercial stuff, which was really annoying in terms of time and interest.
I realised that all I was mostly doing was helping land agents, car salesmen and large retailers to more accurately target me and my ilk as a consumer, so I sent back the form uncompleted, saying why. I wonder how many more poll results are skewed in a similar way.
Vox pops in the paper also annoy me for their selectiveness. That is, until the last week, when eleven out of twelve interviewees, in two separate papers, condemned Paul Henry’s comments as racist. I was especially pleased with two young male high school students who were very clear in their views and understanding.
Good post, Lynn, but talk about burying the lead, which is:Landline-only polling in the US favours the Republican party by about five points compared to a mixed landline/cell sample. In a two-horse middleground race, that’s a simply massive distortion.
L
I thought about it and wrote paragraphs on it. But it got in the way of the basic demographic pattern on age, and is more a consequence of conservatism vs early adopters.There is a strong correlation in nz between numbers of visible landlines in an electorate and conservative voting patterns but there are some interesting exceptions. The paragraphs just kept rising, I was writing in the conference, and it was getting too complicated… Eventually I edited it out the surplus paragraphs
As you do. But there it is now : )
L