The Golden Ticket
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7:00 am, September 24th, 2021 - 110 comments
Categories: australian politics, covid-19, health, jacinda ardern -
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Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern claimed yesterday that a very high vaccination rate in New Zealand would represent a “golden ticket” and make level 4 lockdowns redundant. What could that mean that’s positive for New Zealand?
So if we peek over the horizon to January 2022, what might a very high rate of vaccination mean?
Getting to 85% vaccinated would be possible if the 5-12 year olds can get it. That puts it in the well-oiled public health machinery of primary and intermediate schools.
It is a range that puts us in the rarefied company of such countries as Portugal, Singapore, Iceland, Denmark, and Qatar.
It is yet another competitive differentiator away from Australia.
Australia is in the category of “needs to take action”, as distinct from New Zealand’s “Countries Beating Covid-19”.
By February 2021 Australia’s ABC News could see the differentiators.
For Vietnam it was a low-tech hard and fast response.
For Taiwan, extensive public health infrastructure and experience with SARS.
For Thailand, an army of volunteers.
For Cyprus, border controls and lockdowns.
For Rwanda, public trust in the public health system.
For Iceland, sophisticated and widespread testing.
As a distant and small country with few natural resources and a tiny population, we need as many advantages as fate throws our way.
Denmark and Singapore are small successful states that we often use as policy comparators.
Singapore’s Teo Yik Kang the Dean of the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore, said in August 17th this year that “If countries start to move towards an endemic COVID-19 strategy, the expectation is that there will be more related death, although it is still unclear how many of these will be excess mortality and how many could have occurred regardless of COVID-19.” That requires citizens giving the government and the public health system the social license to treat a level of death and morbidity as a public health background noise similar to road deaths and annual colds.
Is New Zealand really ready for the kind of case number surges that have occurred in Singapore as a result of this public policy?
Denmark has vaccinated 84.5% with a double dose of Pfizer. They are a small country with a sophisticated agricultural base, a social democrat framework and very high trust in government.
More than 353,000 Danes have got infected so far and 2,614 have died of it.
To deal with Denmark’s consequences of re-opening up society and the relative huge surge in cases, Denmark has had to more than double New Zealand’s current intensive care per capita.
Our health system doesn’t have that capacity and would take far too long to get there.
The Danish approach probably wouldn’t work entirely.
Our severity of regulatory response is what we do instead of a first rate health system that could deal with it. We have the social cohesion and trust in government to do that, thankfully.
Neither Singapore nor Denmark have Maori and Pasifika populations that are hard to get to and low on vaccinations on average. New Zealand has that combination to itself.
Freedom of movement is the right we don’t want to lose again.
International travel tracing is well developed. It does appear that the digital passport for proof of disease-free status is on its way as it has been in Denmark.
Lots of countries are considering it for international travel, particularly using the International Air Transport Association (IATA) technology.
Cross-regional and cross-city tracing has a lot of potential if our transport operators can be forced to cooperate with the public health system. We need to move, but we also need to be safe.
Optimism that either Auckland Transport or NZTA will be able to integrate QR codes into regional or national ticketing systems is not high, given that NZTA have been working on that for well over a decade.
But as we found under Levels 3 and 4, because inter-regional travel is as problematic for COVID spread as international travel, personal tracing through mandatory identification as they already do for tolled roads or HOP CRD, Snapper Card, and SuperGold, is inevitable. It’s the new price of movement.
The Golden Ticket Ifs
If we can get to 90% vaccinated including those 5-12 years, and
if we can get an upgraded ICU health system to cope as Denmark and Singapore are having to, and if we can in fairly quick order unify our health system away from false regional boundaries, and if we can re-tool a health system in time to support Maori and Pasifika vaccination rates as they have over the last 6 months, and if we can get transport systems to identify personal movement or otherwise keep us safe, and if we can keep our social cohesion and live with a higher background rate of death and morbidity, then we can get freedom of movement back, and then we can live with COVID.
That’s a lot of probabilistic if’s with just three months before we put our “Golden Ticket” in the hands of 2022. And it is probably our only good path.
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- Release: Govt makes U-turn on Suicide Prevention OfficeLabour welcomes the Government’s U-turn on the closure of the Suicide Prevention Office, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...1 week ago
- CCC issues warning over further climate delayToday’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...1 week ago
- Luxon targets lame and lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...2 weeks ago
- Luxon targets are lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Commitment to disability communities missing from Govt prioritiesMinister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...2 weeks ago
- Methane target review is dangerous duplicationThe Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government must commit to school building project for disabled studentsThe Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: National must take mental health seriouslyMental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...2 weeks ago
- Referendums for Māori wards a racist step backwardsThe Government's imposed referendum on Māori wards is a racist step backwards for Māori representation, and disregards Te Tiriti o Waitangi. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Job losses at Health not worth it for tax cutsNew Zealand will feel the harm of the National Government’s reckless cuts to jobs at the health ministry for generations, says Ayesha Verrall. ...2 weeks ago
- Press release: No Māori initiatives in Government’s nothing planMāori are yet to see anything from this Government except cuts, reversals and taking our people backwards, Māori Development spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Social housing off Government’s to-do listThe Coalition Government’s refusal to commit to ongoing funding for social housing is seeing the sector pull back on developments and families watch their dreams of securing a home fade away, says Labour Housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Less money in most people’s pockets this AprilChanges to minimum wage and benefit indexation means many New Zealanders will get less this year, as the Government gives a big tax break to landlords instead. ...3 weeks ago
- Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...8 hours ago - Government commits $20m to Westport flood protectionThe Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...13 hours ago
- Taupō takes pole positionThe Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...14 hours ago
- Cost of living support for low-income homeownersLocal Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...16 hours ago
- Government backing mussel spat projectThe Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...17 hours ago
- Government focused on getting people into workBenefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...20 hours ago
- Clean energy key driver to reducing emissionsThe Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...21 hours ago
- Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forwardThe Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...1 day ago
- Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic PartnershipPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...2 days ago
- Government consults on extending coastal permits for portsRMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...2 days ago
- Inflation coming down, but more work to doToday’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...2 days ago
- School attendance restored as a priority in health adviceRefreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...2 days ago
- Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sectorOceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...2 days ago
- Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International CongressAssociate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...3 days ago
- Removing red tape to help early learners thriveThe Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...3 days ago
- RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tapeChanges to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...3 days ago
- McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationshipTrade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...3 days ago
- Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister LeePrime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...3 days ago
- PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ tiesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...4 days ago
- Antarctica New Zealand Board appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...4 days ago
- Finance Minister travels to Washington DCFinance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...4 days ago
- Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlordsThe coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...4 days ago
- Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being consideredState Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...4 days ago
- New Zealand condemns Iranian strikesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel. “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says. "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...4 days ago
- Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plansHundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...7 days ago
- Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand ChairHealth Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board. “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti. “I have asked her to ...7 days ago
- Roads of National Significance planning underwayThe NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...7 days ago
- Navigating an unstable global environmentNew Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States. “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...7 days ago
- NZ welcomes Australian Governor-GeneralPrime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...7 days ago
- Pseudoephedrine back on shelves for WinterAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...7 days ago
- NZ and the US: an ever closer partnershipNew Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...7 days ago
- Joint US and NZ declarationApril 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...7 days ago
- NZ and US to undertake further practical Pacific cooperationForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research. “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...1 week ago
- Government redress for Te Korowai o WainuiāruaThe Government is continuing the bipartisan effort to restore its relationship with iwi as the Te Korowai o Wainuiārua Claims Settlement Bill passed its first reading in Parliament today, says Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith. “Historical grievances of Te Korowai o Wainuiārua relate to 19th century warfare, land purchased or taken ...1 week ago
- Focus on outstanding minerals permit applicationsNew Zealand Petroleum and Minerals is working to resolve almost 150 outstanding minerals permit applications by the end of the financial year, enabling valuable mining activity and signalling to the sector that New Zealand is open for business, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “While there are no set timeframes for ...1 week ago
- Applications open for NZ-Ireland Research CallThe New Zealand and Irish governments have today announced that applications for the 2024 New Zealand-Ireland Joint Research Call on Agriculture and Climate Change are now open. This is the third research call in the three-year Joint Research Initiative pilot launched in 2022 by the Ministry for Primary Industries and Ireland’s ...1 week ago
- Tenancy rules changes to improve rental marketThe coalition Government has today announced changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to encourage landlords back to the rental property market, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The previous Government waged a war on landlords. Many landlords told us this caused them to exit the rental market altogether. It caused worse ...1 week ago
- Boosting NZ’s trade and agricultural relationship with ChinaTrade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay will visit China next week, to strengthen relationships, support Kiwi exporters and promote New Zealand businesses on the world stage. “China is one of New Zealand’s most significant trade and economic relationships and remains an important destination for New Zealand’s products, accounting for nearly 22 per cent of our good and ...1 week ago
- Freshwater farm plan systems to be improvedThe coalition Government intends to improve freshwater farm plans so that they are more cost-effective and practical for farmers, Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay have announced. “A fit-for-purpose freshwater farm plan system will enable farmers and growers to find the right solutions for their farm ...1 week ago
- New Fast Track Projects advisory group namedThe coalition Government has today announced the expert advisory group who will provide independent recommendations to Ministers on projects to be included in the Fast Track Approvals Bill, say RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Regional Development Minister Shane Jones. “Our Fast Track Approval process will make it easier and ...1 week ago
- Warning of death from a million cuts as Oceans Secretariat dissolved
Shane Jones says people voted for change, but opponents say small cuts such as ending a special oceans secretariat are starting to add up The post Warning of death from a million cuts as Oceans Secretariat dissolved appeared first on Newsroom. ...59 mins ago - Defence deal to counter Beijing’s aggression in South China SeaNew Zealand and the Philippines have signed a new maritime security agreement and stated their concerns over activity in the South China Sea, as Chinese vessels continue to flout international law. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Philippines President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos committed to signing a Mutual Logistics Supporting Arrangement by ...59 mins ago
- Wellington’s ebb and flow of public servantsThe thousands of government “back-office” job cuts are causing widespread pain in the capital city. In today’s episode of The Detail, we speak to three journalists and a think tank researcher, looking at the larger picture around the cuts and what effect it will have on Wellington, a city that’s ...59 mins ago
- New Zealand transport planning has gone off the railsOpinion: The famed American architect and urban designer Daniel Burnham once said, “Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood!” Burnham wouldn’t have been referring to the transport plans in Aotearoa New Zealand over the past five years; projects so big they hadn’t the credibility to ...59 mins ago
- Daily crossword, Friday 19 AprilThe post Daily crossword, Friday 19 April appeared first on Newsroom. ...59 mins ago
- Brakes on transport and logistics sector as demand for freight slowsThe transport sector is currently in the slow lane The post Brakes on transport and logistics sector as demand for freight slows appeared first on Newsroom. ...59 mins ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 19 AprilLoading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 19 April appeared first on Newsroom. ...59 mins ago
- Financial literacy should be on all of usOpinion: With maths understanding at 42 percent for Year 8 students, there’s no doubt something has to be done. But how? The post Financial literacy should be on all of us appeared first on Newsroom. ...59 mins ago
- Missy rustles to stardom in CanadaHineaupounamu ‘Missy’ Nuku has been scaling mountains in Canada for her college basketball team, the Lakeland Rustlers. Alberta is currently home for the 20-year-old point guard, who is in her first year of a scholarship at Lakeland College, where she is studying for a business degree. She has certainly made ...59 mins ago
- Emissions fall again – now NZ needs to up the paceOfficial figures confirm New Zealand produced less climate pollution in 2022 than in any other year in the 21st century The post Emissions fall again – now NZ needs to up the pace appeared first on Newsroom. ...59 mins ago
- Grattan on Friday: Ethnic tensions will complicate the Albanese government’s multicultural policy ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra When ASIO boss Mike Burgess delivered his annual threat assessment earlier this year, he stressed the rising danger posed by espionage and foreign interference. “In 2024, threats to our way of life have surpassed ...7 hours ago - Group plans work to improve safety of female MPs
New research shows harassment of elected officials - especially women - is on the rise. ...8 hours ago - Ukraine warns of WW3 ahead of long-stalled Congress aid voteUkraine's Prime Minister says his country desperately needs the US to approve long-stalled security assistance. ...9 hours ago
- Crown lawyers attempt to block Waitangi Tribunal summons to Minister for ChildrenThe Tribunal had called on Minister for Children Karen Chhour to provide evidence at an urgent inquiry into the repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. ...11 hours ago
- Luxon refuses to guarantee public consultation on AUKUS Pillar 2Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says it's "far too premature" to be confirming whether the public would be consulted on joining AUKUS Pillar 2. ...12 hours ago
- Visualising the 1800s or designing wedding invitations: 6 ways you can use AI beyond generating textSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University Midjourney image by T.J. Thomson As more than half of Australian office workers report using generative artificial intelligence (AI) for work, we’re starting to see this technology affect every ...13 hours ago
- Falls, fractures and self-harm: 4 charts on how kids’ injury risk changes over time and differs fo...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Nicole Sharwood, Injury epidemiologist | Expert Witness, UNSW Sydney Sergey Novikov/Shutterstock Injuries are the leading cause of disability and death among Australian children and adolescents. At least a quarter of all emergency department presentations during childhood are injury-related. Injuries can ...13 hours ago
- Choice and control: will NDIS reforms mean people with disability don’t get to decide who they liv...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Di Winkler, Adjunct Associate Professor, Living with Disability Research Centre, La Trobe University Shutterstock/Ground Picture Many Australians with disability feel on the edge of a precipice right now. Recommendations from the disability royal commission and the NDIS review were released late ...13 hours ago
- Asbestos in playground mulch: how to avoid a repeat of this circular economy scandalSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Salman Shooshtarian, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT University Salman Shooshtarian Asbestos has been found in mulch used for playgrounds, schools, parks and gardens across Sydney and Melbourne. Local communities naturally fear for the health of their ...13 hours ago
- Could Albanese’s bet on homegrown green industries be the boost our regions deserve?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Madeline Taylor, Senior Lecturer, Macquarie University Cloudy Designs/Shutterstock Right now, there’s a global race underway. The goal: bring back manufacturing and energy jobs as the energy transition speeds up. In 2022, America launched its mammoth Inflation Reduction Act and the ...13 hours ago
- Watch: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon won't say if government will consult public on joining ...Asked multiple times if the public will be consulted on joining the defence pact, Luxon repeatedly said that was yet to be worked through. ...14 hours ago
- Watch live: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon speaks in PhilippinesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon is speaking to reporters on the third leg of his Southeast Asia trip, from Manila in the Philippines. ...14 hours ago
- Māori lawyers call Shane Jones' Waitangi Tribunal comments 'inappropriate'The Māori Law Society says his comments breach the principle of the separation of powers and the Cabinet Manual. ...14 hours ago
- Abortions Increase 25% Since Law Change
Family First says that the latest abortion statistics make grim and upsetting reading, with a 25% increase in abortions since the decriminalisation of abortion in March 2020. According to an Official Information Act request received by Right to Life ...15 hours ago - Over Half Of New Zealanders Feel That The Country Is In Decline And That Our Society Is BrokenIpsos New Zealand's inaugural participation in a global study on populism reveals a pervasive sense of societal and economic decline among New Zealanders. MORE DETAILS AND FULL REPORT HERE Ipsos New Zealand's inaugural participation in a global study ...15 hours ago
- Australia’s new defence strategy is big on ideas, but lacks one key ingredient: well-trained soldi...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Strategic Studies, Griffith University There have been a lot of defence announcements recently about buying new equipment, building up Australia’s manufacturing capabilities, creating local jobs, new legislation to support AUKUS and even a new defence chief. In ...16 hours ago
- What does Steve Smith’s Stateside signing mean for cricket in the US – and Australia?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney Steve Smith, one of this generation’s finest batters, has conquered much of the cricketing world during his career, and he now has set his sights on a new frontier: the United ...16 hours ago
- A love letter to Wellington: when i open the shop by romesh dissanayake, reviewed
Madeleine Ballard reviews the debut novel from romesh dissanayake. when I open the shop, the debut novel by Naarm-based Aotearoa writer romesh dissanayake (Sri Lankan, Koryo Saram), is a narrative of grief. Devendra loses his mother, opens a noodle shop on The Terrace, grieves, and emerges changed. But just as ...16 hours ago - Minister Concedes Contractors Will Be Hired To Do Work Of Axed Ministry Of Education StaffThe PSA can’t believe that the Minister of Education is happy for her ministry to hire contractors at the same time it is dismissing 565 workers. ...16 hours ago
- Attempt to bar diplomat from Myanmar military junta failsMyanmar community members applied to the courts to bar the diplomat from attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. ...16 hours ago
- LGNZ Welcomes Govt Earthquake-prone Buildings DecisionLGNZ has advocated for this decision as part of a remit led by Manawatū District Council. ...17 hours ago
- AUKUS Pillar 2 a 'fragrant, methane-wrapped bull***' – Bob CarrThe former Australian Foreign Minister has continued to warn New Zealand against joining the defence pact. ...17 hours ago
- Enforceable undertaking issued to abc accounting services limited after continued non-compliance.The Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) has accepted an enforceable undertaking agreement from ABC Accounting Services Limited (ABC) under section 81 of the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act 2009 (AML/CFT Act). ...17 hours ago
- REVEALED: RNZ’s Hypocrisy Over Fair Digital News Bargaining BillThe Taxpayers’ Union can reveal that Radio New Zealand (RNZ) spent $71,842.53 on Facebook advertising over the past 12 months, despite earlier this year coming out in support of the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill , which would force the likes ...18 hours ago
- Police rejected 'very good offer' – Mark MitchellPolice Minister Mark Mitchell says the pay offer rejected by police was the best the government could put forward under difficult financial circumstances. ...18 hours ago
- How can we have truth-telling without the Voice? Our research shows a way forwardSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Heidi Norman, Professor, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, Convenor: Indigenous Land & Justice Research Group, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock The Uluru Statement from the Heart set out the aspirations of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples for “Voice, Treaty, Truth”, in ...18 hours ago
- NZ education scores must improve – but another polarising ideological pivot isn’t the answerSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bronwyn E Wood, Associate Professor in Education, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images You don’t need to look hard right now to see concerns about Aotearoa New Zealand’s education system. Declining performance in international testing has been ...18 hours ago
- An updated tally of the public sector job cutsThe coalition government has made it well known it expects departments to cut roles. We break down the numbers as they currently stand. Updated: 12pm, April 18 Before last year’s election, both National and Act made it clear that the public service was squarely in their crosshairs. Both parties, now ...18 hours ago
- Confessions of an unlikely petrolheadCheckered Flag director Natalie Wilson on her lifelong love of motorsport, and the allure of Pukekohe Park Raceway. One childhood summer when my world revolved around winning stuff off the radio, I bagged tickets to Western Springs Speedway and then to Waikaraka Park in what was a dream season for ...18 hours ago
- 'Ambitious' trade pledge headlines Luxon's Thailand stopThe Prime has announced a commitment to triple two-way trade with Thailand by 2045, but it only requires maintaining current growth. ...18 hours ago
- ‘The right person’: What did Solomon Islanders vote for?By Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor in Honiara After a relatively well organised and peaceful day of voting in Solomon Islands yesterday, the electoral commission is working with donor partners to safely transport ballot boxes from polling stations all over the country to centrally located counting venues. It is a ...19 hours ago
- What it’s like to be made redundant by the Ministry of EducationI was one of hundreds of people who lost my government job this week. Here’s exactly how it played out. It is a Friday. I’m in the middle of an online Teams hui working out the finer details of a series of workshops we’ll be presenting next week. It’s a ...19 hours ago
- What are ‘Ozempic babies’? Can the drug really increase your chance of pregnancy?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karin Hammarberg, Senior Research Fellow, Global and Women’s Health, School of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, Monash University Joshua Rodriguez/Unsplash Hundreds of thousands of people worldwide are taking drugs like Ozempic to lose weight. But what do we actually know about ...20 hours ago
- Why the kookaburra’s iconic laugh is at risk of being silencedSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diana Kuchinke, Lecturer in Ecology, Federation University Australia Linda Robertus/Shutterstock Once, while teaching a class of environmental science students in China’s Hebei University of Science and Technology, I asked who knew what a laughing kookaburra was. There were many blank faces. ...20 hours ago
- Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Breen, Professor of Law, University of Waikato smolaw11/Getty Images School truancy has been a concern across the political spectrum for years. But proposed solutions have largely failed to address the core reasons for unexplained school absences. Despite the apparent ...20 hours ago
- ‘Listening is the most important part’: 10 things students with disability and their families wa...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melissa Cain, Senior Lecturer in Inclusive Education and Arts Education, Australian Catholic University Agence Olloweb/Unsplash, CC BY About 90% of Australian students with disability attend mainstream schools. Equitable access and participation in education is a fundamental human right. But as last ...20 hours ago
- Will global oil supply be at risk if Iran and Israel pull the Middle East into war?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Flavio Macau, Associate Dean – School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University Tensions in the Middle East have escalated following Iran’s weekend missile and drone attacks on Israel, heightening concerns of a wider conflict. As with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ...20 hours ago
- No, getting your boyfriend to peel an orange won’t prove his loyalty. Why TikTok relationship ‘t...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edith Jennifer Hill, Associate Lecturer, Learning & Teaching Innovation, Flinders University Shutterstock Have you ever wondered if your partner really loves you? Well apparently so have thousands of TikTok users, who are testing their theories for the world to see. In ...20 hours ago
- New Zealand’s Annual Emissions Fell In 2022, For Third Successive YearThis is the third successive decrease year-on-year. New Zealand’s gross emissions for 2022 were 78.4 Mt CO2-e. ...21 hours ago
- Oranga Tamariki job cuts: 'We can't establish what their endgame is'Oranga Tamariki has failed to explain how hundreds of job cuts will achieve a better outcome for children, a children's advocate says. ...21 hours ago
- Help Me Hera: My parents won’t help out with my kidsThey pressured me to have children, and I had two. Now they won’t lift a finger. Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nz Hi Hera, I suspect it’s a familiar pattern. Back in the day, as a single gal, I was plagued with questions from my parents about when I would find ...21 hours ago
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“Our severity of regulatory response is what we do instead of a first rate health system that could deal with it. We have the social cohesion and trust in government to do that, thankfully.”
Just looking at the daily news items, reporting ever more lockdown-breakers – it looks like lockdown fatigue / lockdown stir-craziness is likely to increase with any more Lockdown 4 regimes.
So the more people we can get vaccinated, obviously, the better. Especially as vaxed folk like moi can still get, and shed, Covid-19.
Dunno how I feel about being tracked wherever I go. Doesn’t really appeal. Bad enuf feeling like every device one uses these days Google, fb, various websites etc are tracking you. And forking over your data to others.
Do you have a mobile phone?
I can understand why people might be anxious about having their internet browsing behaviour tracked, but assume it already is, and why they might be concerned that their spending history could be followed, which I also assume is readily visible to anyone determined to know what you've spent and where you spent it, but why the anxiety about knowing which locations you visit throughout the day? Perhaps someone might set me straight?
Just look up any address and it tracks it from where you are, wherever you are.
Given how bloody clever cyber crims are these days, I’m always concerned about my smartphone getting hacked. Especially after a friend of mine up North dropped out of contact for a while. Then she sent me a text saying “Sorry not been in touch. My phone got hacked!”
Use a smartphone security , I use eset for up to 5 devices, both android and microsoft.
Where possible dont use your smartphone for some things like email or banking. Email is a common way for hackers to get in.
I turn off the GPS function on smartphone, and disable the options in apps that want to use it. I turn off camera and microphone options for apps that want that, other than camera and calling of course. Most apps can have their options restricted like this.
The other method is to use airplane mode more often, effectively removes you from network…try it while you travel and only turn back on at home etc.
Looks like some excellent tips & advice there, Ghosty
Ta very much. Gonna copy that to iPad Notes.
Re your: “Where possible dont use your smartphone for some things like email or banking. Email is a common way for hackers to get in.”
Yep I already figured that, & I never use email or do online banking on my smartphone. I also don’t keep any personal identifying data in my Galaxy’s Notes or other apps. I’ve kept my apps almost entirely to the defaults it came with.
And I don’t sync my smartphone to other devices.
@ Ad
Yep, got a smartphone. Put off getting one for S long as I could tho. I just carried on for as long as I could using a flip top 3G mobile, which I preferred because of its compactness. And it was a prepay. I’d just top it up as needed. They had no personal data in their records like Google does with my Galaxy smartphone.
I only went to a smartphone when the 3G-mobile’s battery was at the end of its life & I couldn’t get replacement.
On my smartphone I tried to switch off location for any app that didn’t require it to run. Had to enable location for the camera tho.
Location trackers are just part of life.
There's no right to spatial anonymity.
“There’s no right to spatial anonymity.”
…………………………..
There isn’t now. There used to be. Or at least, only your Visa & Eftpos cards tracked your financial location when you spent $.
The price of easy access to internet has been having to surrender personal data to companies who reserve the right to exploit tracking you.
Businesses are not even required to take cash.
We must simply accept perpetual surveillance as the price of free movement.
Probably Jacinda wouldn't quite put it as baldly as that.
"Businesses are not even required to take cash".
I think it is a little more complicated than that. If you want to buy something and tender cash for the item that is merely an offer. The second part of creating a contract is that the vendor can accept or refuse the offer. If they don't want cash, or more generally legal tender, they don't have to do so as they don't have to accept your offer.
If, on the other hand, you have reached the stage where you have incurred a debt to the vendor you can offer legal tender to settle the debt. That would be the case where you have taken possession of the goods. Settling your debt is a unilateral action.
There are various rules about whether cash, and in particular coins, are legal tender. If you want to pay a large debt with small denomination coins you can't insist on it as the amount may exceed the limit for it being legal tender.
ps. Those certainly were the rules in New Zealand. I don't bother to keep up the niceties of the matter anymore so I may be out of date.
The Assistant Governor of the NZ Reserve Bank stated back in in 2019 that there was no obligation for businesses to accept cash.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/do-you-want-right-pay-in-cash#:~:text=%22At%20the%20moment%20there%20is,dollars%2C%22%20Mr%20Hawkesby%20said.
If you really want to go into the legalities of what is considered "legal tender", have a go at this extensive legal opinion from the RBNZ:
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/reservebank/files/publications/bulletins/2007/2007sep70-3mcbride.pdf
Yes. It was the second link that I was trying to paraphrase. That is about the difference between the offer of cash for goods, which does not have to be accepted, and the settlement of a debt, which in practice did as if you refused it you had no means of enforcing the payment of the debt. I think RNZ went a bit far in interpreting what the RBNZ Deputy Governor actually said. He was talking about the "offer" of legal tender in the making of a contract..
For a contract to exist requires, "offer", ,"acceptance" and "consideration," (Down payment) which can be anything the contracting parties accept as having value. Cash or electronic exchange of bits is valid though it could be something else of value to the parties. Verbal contracts are equally valid. Of course a written contract, and exchange of money (legal tender) is easier, when you require proof of a contract in court.
I expect by December Christmas this year most retailers will not only NOT take cash, they will ONLY take contactless card transactions ie no more standard EFTPOS cards.
1 contact, 1 germ, 1 outbreak that kills their business.
The day NZ businesses refuse to accept cash NZD for payment is the day that the loss of sovereign issuance begins to occur…..Zimbabwe know what that is like.
That day happened at least sometime last year. All card on campus now – coffee, printing, everything.
Whether this is business led or consumer led is hard to tell. In our business we've seen a gradual move away from cash over the last 20 years, or you could say a gradual move toward card payment over the last 20 years. We still accept cash, but now take so little, like none, we don't keep a float in the till any more.
The biggest change in the move from cash has been at the bank, they don't need tellers to process the deposits so most branches now only have one teller when the same branch would have had 4 or 5 20 years ago. In our case we used to bank every other day with cheques and NZ and overseas cash, now we can go 3 or 4 months without making a branch or atm deposit. It all goes through the eftpos machine.
I last took out cash from my bank account was, as I have just checked, on the 1st of June. I took out $100 and I still have $90 in my wallet. I probably had $10 in cash when I withdrew the money
I have therefore used only $20 cash in almost 3 months.
begin
/bɪˈɡɪn/
verb
3rd person present: begins
perform or undergo the first part of (an action or activity).
@Graeme
Whether it is consumer driven (which as you describe it is driven by economics for the banking system) is largely irrelevant….if the system develops to the point whereby the issued currency becomes of little or no use then the ability of the state to determine the volume and velocity of that currency diminishes….it has the potential to advance the uptake of the likes of CDCs, something all currency issuers fear and for good reason.What control governments then?
Or the issuance of Central Bank DCs with the complete control of all aspects of everyones lives.
Neither are desirable outcomes.
Not for the history of cellphone networks. they all track ywhich towers you are pinging and signal strength as part of network maintenance. But many a crim got nabbed by the location of their cellphone when the crime happened.
Exactly. So even if you just rely on an old 3g mobile your travels can still be traced by your telecom provider. That is unless you switch it off.
In the past my nephew has given expert witness statements for the prosecution on the whereabouts of a defendant.
Actually there is.
The Signal Code
So is that a right to spatial anonymity?
When you sign up to your provider, you are agreeing to share where you are, so you have given up any reasonable expectation of privacy.
– You've already made a public disclosure of facts
– You've already disclosed facts of a previously private nature
– None of the location details are in and of themselves offensive
– And there's plenty of argument to be made about a legitimate public concern to have one's location details available to the public.
Nothing to be afraid of, and no right to defend in the first place.
I don't have a phone. If ever I get lost, I'm going to have to rely on my embedded tracker 🙂
… that and the fact that Riverton only has a total of seven actual streets.
Are you quite sure about that? It could be that you are just a person with an average memory and 7 is apparently the average number of things that people can remember in short term memory. Maybe there are a few more but 7 is your limit.
https://thebrain.mcgill.ca/flash/capsules/experience_jaune03.html
I thought it was really only four. I remember hearing an interview with the chap who had first developed the use of PIN codes. He said that the number of digits being limited to 4 was because that was the biggest number that his wife would be able to remember. If I had tried some wise crack like that I wouldn't have dared to go home, or at least I wouldn't have dared to turn my back on my wife when she was near anything she could hit me with.
OMG Alwyn. There are more than 7 streets in Riverton.
More than 7! Really? Last time I went through I blinked and missed it. To be fair that was a long long time ago.
On the other hand, looking at Google Maps I see that it is an enormous place. And there was me thinking it was about the size of Ongaonga in Hawkes Bay. It has about 4 streets.
Maybe you just oughta
linger longer
in Ongaonga
Home phone only. People enjoy showing me (at a distance) what you can do with smart phones, which is a win-win; they think they're helping me, and I think I'm helping them – everyone likes to feel useful.
My biro and notebook are a bit burdensome, but I've gotten used to the extra weight and haven't forgotten them in ages – good for all sorts of things.
Once upon a time, in the long long ago, many people kept a daily record of their comings and goings – diaries I think they were called. Amazing!
How would you feel about being tracked whenever you go?
The pan-opticon
Already "make level 4 restrictions redundant" is being interpreted as no lock downs at all; "90%" is being interpreted as 90% with one jab . . . – and 'freedom" is being interpreted as no border controls and freedom to return from other countries without isolation if you have a certificate . . .
I've been reading through the recent Hendy and colleagues modelling paper. In Table 1 they assume that vaccination reduces the probability of transmission in an infected individual by about 50%. My understanding was that Oxford University had shown that viral loads were about the same in infected people regardless of vaccination status. These two things don't seem to square up, am I missing something here?
If the viral load is the same, but the transmission rate is halved, then it must be the mechanics of transmission: coughing etc that make the difference, imo.
I’d got the impression that vaxed folk who get Covid shed the virus at the same rate as unvaxed people. It’s just that you don’t suffer the severe symptoms?
Thats not correct it varies greatly from person to person just as some vaxxed people still end up extremely ill and others are completely asymptomatic…
Vaccinated people who get infected usually don't show severe symptoms because the virus establishs in upper respiratory tract only, and fails to move into the lungs. In unvaccinated it moves readily into the lungs (and everywhere else) which is when it gets dangerous.
Apparently the current crop of vaccines don't illicit a strong immune response on the surfaces of the upper respiratory tract but produce a stronger immune response inside the lungs and interior tissues (which is still a fantastic thing to have!). There is work being done on developing vaccines that also boost surfaces of upper respiratory tract.
👍🏼 Thanks.
Vaccinated people infected with Delta Covid reach the same peak viral load in the upper respiratory tract, but this viral load lasts for a shorter period than in the unvaccinated. Hence lower transmission.
See here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full.pdf+html
Other studies that compare viral load vs vaccination have either found same load, or lower load in vaccinated. This can probably be understood by looking at the timing of sampling – if early in disease, get same load. If later, lower load.
Thank-you for that reference.
I have one more question to ask if I may?
We are told that children only get mild cases of covid, is it known whether this means that for them the virus is largely confined to the upper respiratory tract and generally does not get down to the lungs? In other words, is whatever is protecting children acting in a similar way to the vaccines?
From a couple of weeks ago when this question was asked (h/t Treetop for originally linking the article):
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/unraveling-the-mystery-of-why-children-are-better-protected-from-covid-than-adults/
tl;dr Kids' perma-snotty noses actually contain a first response system to viruses that are new to them, that adults never used to need so it doesn't get maintained. Because it comes at a fairly high metabolic cost.
Which is all very well. But the situation we're facing is that kids are very likely to be facing a new virus that frequently breaks through this defence and wreaks havoc. So while most children are have better defences against the virus than adults, it still causes long term disability and even deaths in enough children that we'd be going pretty hard to protect them, even if it rarely affected adults. Think meningococcal disease a few years back.
Mechanistically, no. The ‘snot barrier’ is and acts very differently and is part of the so-called the innate immune system while vaccines work through the adaptive immune system.
Hendy's model is being criticised quite heavily, and doesn't stack up against other countries with similar vaccination rates that have opened up. e.g:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300414401/covid19-nz-rodney-jones-says-shaun-hendys-7000death-vaccine-model-doesnt-pass-plausibility-test
The cynic in me would suggest that the government has set out an implausible doomsday scenario so that when it doesn't eventuate they can be credited with saving us all.
Cynicism can be a good attribute unless it clouds your thinking too much.
Nicholas Steyn1,3, Michael Plank2,3, and Shaun Hendy1,3
The same guy predicted up to 80000 Covid deaths last year.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120604818/new-model-shows-coronavirus-could-kill-80000-kiwis-without-lockdown
Obvious scare-mongering then as even India with a virtually non-existent health system in some areas and a population of 1.4 billion has only recorded 446 thousand deaths from Covid.
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+india&rlz=1C1GCEA_enNZ855NZ855&oq=covid+deaths+india&aqs=chrome.0.0i131i433i512j0i512l9.3203j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
So, I think I will keep to my cynicism so far as Hendy is concerned.
I think you should rather place your cynicism to the recorded figures of deaths in India. Those figures are for the deaths in hospitals, completely overlooking the deaths in the streets and villages.
Some estimates of the actual deaths from covid in India from the Centre for Global Development put the figure up to 10 times that of the recorded figure.
The street dwellers India have virtually no representation in government considerations.
I understand that. But even allowing for 10x the death rate in India with all its problems, then that would only equate to 16000 on a population basis if applied in NZ. Still a long way short of 80000.
Do the conditions in India match the criteria for that 80k maximum?
Because Hendy's prediction for the conditions we actually implemented were bang on.
The other thing is that the situation in India was far worse than here at the height of the pandemic. I recall seeing on the news remote villages where medical centres had been abandoned leaving the residents to fend for themselves. And there was huge shortages of oxygen etc to keep people alive.
So, whatever the actual deathrate, it is probably far worse than it would be in NZ in the same circumstances.
The worst cynics are the ignorant ones and the worst ignorami are the ones who are not sufficiently self-aware of their ignorance.
Hendy’s models have actually been ‘road-tested’ and found to be quite accurate, retrospectively. The real power of simulation models is that that they can guide you when you don’t have all the data in hand yet and need to act decisively and pro-actively, e.g., with government policies and strategies.
PS India =//= NZ, but that’s just another false equivalence that you don’t seem to get.
There was the either a lock down, or there would be a lot of deaths – that's reality not scaremongering.
4 million extra deaths by June 2021 in India.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57888460
TBH it's pretty clear this Labour government has saved us already.
Kin oath bro. Look across the ditch at the Omni shambles scumo and gladyator have gifted oz.
Whether Hendy is right or wrong, I am not sure what the point of marching him out on stage was.
Anti vaxxers are not going to be frightened into getting the jab.
Of course not. But what about a vaccine passport to reward those who jab up?
The number of deaths per week is currently 994 in the United Kingdom.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
Why, that would merely be a hundred a week in NZ! Perfectly acceptable toll to exchange for a jaunt to Melbourne over the weekend /sarc
It's a scaremongering model aimed at getting people vaxed and under control. I've got no problem getting people vaxed, but you don't need to do it like this.
There's no way this model stacks up, just like his previous one where 70-80k were going to die. It got laughed at then, and now.
Jesus christ you guys need to get some new lies.
Hendy's model at the start of the pandemic was spectacularly accurate on for the measures we actually imposed: 20-odd deaths projected vs the 27 we are at 18 months later.
Your argument that the upper-level projection for if no measures were imposed and people in no way changed their behaviour even by personal choice (pubs as usual, nobody masking, nobody staying in more often) is pretty bold in the face of that track record.
At some point it might look like you pricks are deliberately trying to undermine the covid19 response for some perverted reason of your own.
I think I should start moderating ignorant fools who make assertions about stuff they clearly don’t understand and know nothing about. Would you like to be first because you’ve had form in the past as a troll?
Always suspected that infused had the wrong prefix.
I follow, to rebut, a couple of MB with anti vaxxers of the worst (ie pull out dubious links to all kinds of things being attributed to the vaccine), and in some cases sad, kind. Just this morning we have had a spate of this 'under control' saying. Perhaps this is the new 'orders' or perhaps they are still taking seriously that the vaccinated have had trackers or magnets inserted.
They are pests what ever the reason this 'under control' saying has surfaced.
Each to our own and I accept that there will be vaccine hesitant (don't leave it too long!) and the immuno compromised.
Statistics, like models, are only as good as their bikinis: what they show is revealing, but what they hide is essential.
At this time Denmark is getting about 300 cases per day and 2 deaths per day (last weekly average) 2 per day = 730 deaths per year – probably near to the realms of acceptability. The case load of 300 per day is much more than our health system can handle but overall it's getting a lot closer. I fear New Zealand's problem will be the anti-vaccine crowd. Strategy on getting the highest possible % vaccinated will be crucial.
Direct payment ? – To be attractive though this would be very expensive probably better would be……
Those vaccinated go into a daily draw live on tv (very heavily advertised) say five 1 million dollar prizes for two or three months (pretty cheap IMO …given the other costs we have had to wear)
I can’t open the reply on Open Mike but in reply to Bearded Git et al if you check out Rodney Jones on Jack Tame last Sunday he is very much of the leftist persuasion saying that neo liberalism has let down the bottom of the socio demographic and was opposed to Auckland shift to L3 while there were still cases in the community. Not quite the rabid righty economist. His opposition to the 7000 deaths was that it was a bit of scare mongering and thought it may be counter-productive.
We have plenty of ICU beds in normal circumstances and it is misleading to compare countries because we have strong palliative care systems but the USA for one intubates and ventilates at a far lower threat level than we do, probably because of threat of legal action and also greed, milking the insurance companies, who often have ownership of hospitals, sounds counterintuitive but with premiums being a percentage of cost, the more cost the higher the premiums.
A good comparison between countries would be total death rates per annum, at the moment we may well be a few thousand in credit, the reason being that Covid may only be a co- morbidity factor even in younger deaths.
Plenty of ICU beds, really?
We lack ICU nurses, and treatment to save life is not the same as palliative care – is it really common for other nations to use ICU bed nurses to manage palliative care in hospital?
We usually have 500 flu deaths a year and a bit of pressure on the health system late winter from this.
The combination of coronavirus and flu spread is something our health system will struggle to cope with next year (the novavax booster may come with an incorpoirated flu vaccine …).
International travel is dead regardless. Even if you open the borders most people don't wanna travel so airlines won't be breaking even.
New strains will mean we'll probably need to get a vax every other year.
Lockdowns and restrictions may just be something we have to get used to for the foreseeable future.
Yes. Regarding international travel, Im sure travel insurance for covid is still not covered. We can get care in Australia and UK under our reciprocal and similar systems.
Not sure how places like France work for that.
But as usual the clueless will get caught out with out any insurance at all, because they are young and bulletproof..cue Givealittle for a $75,000 bill
I think it will boom again as soon as we are out of this for about a year, then settle back down in part because business travel expenses are going to get harder to justify the business insurance risks. Is this business trip really really necessary? The scrutiny Minister Shaw got was remarkably small, but it's going to get louder as infection criticism intensifies.
Once we are stable as a society again, we need to generate some posts on the decreasing necessity of travel full stop. That includes commuting to work, inter-city travel, Australasian travel. and the general substitution of analogue for ditigal exchange of people and ideas as a result of COVID, business risk calculation, and climate budgeting together.,
We have a few months to wait and see what happens to the countries which opened up, while we get our vacines rate up.
This should prove useful when making a policy decision.
But while we are waiting can we at least open up more MIQ rooms?. This is very poor govt management.
They're playing it safe because of need to isolate locals if the community spread continues. The issue to come, is if (and when) we allow those vaccinated to come into home isolation.
Every expansion in MIQ facilities and returnees increases risk. Apart from the limited number of suitable facilities and staff.
Perhaps there has been modeling of the level of risk vs number of returnees and the present levels of entrants is being deliberately kept below that level as acceptable risk?
I think the limiting factor is capacity, i.e., the ability to manage the numbers without burning out (thousands of) staff and managing risk at the same time.
Extra rooms are being opened in Christchurch.
I agree their handling of this part is a mess – if you are trying to get in.
Those trying to enter are suffering for the good of the 5 million. I appreciate them.
I have this nagging feeling that Jacinda going in to bat for Hendy's theory may backfire.
People don't respond well to the use of fear tactics
Cr, Re- listen to Jacinda's comments. "This is one point of view and we have a team of modellers and we consider all their advice. Advice is not set in stone… it changes according to variables."
As a small-c conservative her instincts have guided her well through nearly two terms now. She doesn't take un-calculated gambles.
Nor do I see Jacinda as coldly calculating to use a fear tactic. Maybe I am dumb, but I see this fear-tactic meme as a right-wing construction, aimed at destroying the empathy many NZers feel with Jacinda's personal characteristics.
John Key's popularity used to annoy us lefties, and mocking Righties accused us of having 'Key Derangement Syndrome' (KDS).
Could some of the decriers of ruthless fear tactics actually be developing a new phenomenon? Jacinda Ardern Kindness Aversion Syndrome Subversion?
Ardern's resolute adherence to science-based policy advice makes her emotional feel increasingly like Helen Clark in tone. The Ardern Prime Ministership doesn't look like a whole bunch of fun.
.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/kahu/covid-19-coronavirus-maori-and-pasifika-should-have-been-prioritised-for-vaccines-experts/LQJ5PBVJNIOIGY5PNY5DAC7FEU/
“Māori health experts say the age-based approach baked inequities into the Covid-19 vaccine rollout and giving Māori and Pasifika vaccination priority could have dampened the Delta outbreak. A Rotorua district health board member and Whānau Ora representative says the rollout typified a “back of the queue, back of the bus” approach to Māori.
The Ministry of Health says the vaccine sequencing was established to vaccinate those most at risk first and it is working to boost Māori and Pasifika rates.
Massey University Te Pūmanawa Hauora Māori Health and Development Research centre director Professor Chris Cunningham said more than half of the Māori population was under 30, a statistic linked to a lower life expectancy than the general population. When the vaccine plan prioritised over-30s above younger people, it effectively excluded more than half the Māori population, Cunningham said.
The median age for Māori is about 26 years.
The age distribution in NZ is a result of inequity, then when they use age as the entrance criteria it replicates the inequity … it’s crazy.”
Cunningham said if Māori and Pasifika had been prioritised in Group 1 of the vaccine rollout “we would have made better progress”. “You shouldn’t use age as a criterion uncritically.”…He said prioritising Māori and Pasifika could have helped prevent the spread of Delta.”
………………………………
If the Māori/Pasifika vax rate in Wellington CCDHB is low, I’m rather bewildered by this. When I went to my local Medical Centre to get my free annual flu shot (these work: It’s been well over a decade since I last had flu) I asked the Practice Nurse how long should I wait before getting my Covid jabs?
By then, according to media reports, the vaccine rollout had reached my age bracket (65+) & we should around then be getting contacted to book our jabs.
The nurse said: “Two weeks. But it will be some off yet before you get contacted for you Covid jabs. Wellington DHB is giving priority to Māori & Pasifika people first.”
Capital & Coast DHB was dragging its feet, we thought. Perhaps not enuf supply? Other DHBs were reportedly well on their thru the 65+ cases. It was actually the evening of the very day Ardern stated at her midday press conference that all people 65 and over had now been contacted that I got 2 texts inviting me to book my jabs. (1 from the DHB & 1 from my local Medical Centre.)
I guess all DHBs were doing their own thing. Certainly seems like Wellington’s was prioritising Māori & Pasifika folk. It wasn’t clear though whether they were doing it across the board or in age brackets?
In public policy terms I don't think I've ever seen a faster and clearer advantage of helping Maori and Pasifika because they were the ones that it was in all our interests to help.
It would not be unreasonable for Prime Minister Ardern to make that point/Along with every Maori and Pasifika health NGO.
Sometimes white privilege is a pain in the ass.
“The Ministry of Health is rethinking its approach to saliva testing, after key medical and lab testing bodies make major changes to their position, with one citing a study showing New Zealanders are reluctant to take Covid-19 nasal swab tests.
The New Zealand Microbiology Network has reversed its own call from less than six months ago, and now believes saliva testing is accurate enough to be used as a substitute for nasal swabs. However, its preferred method is still the nasal swab…
International Accreditation New Zealand (Ianz) has also changed the certification attached to some saliva testing labs, opening the door for saliva tests to be used as a substitute for nasal swabs at medical clinics, if labs can present enough evidence their test has been properly validated.
…NZ First leader Winston Peters has slammed the ministry for not getting saliva testing in place more widely, and faster, despite the Simpson Roche report recommending it last year.
“By March 2021 we should have been totally been on top of it … these sorts of things, costs and delays, and lack of validation as to what they’re using as a system, is just unconscionable at this point in time,” Peters says. “I’m not trying to be obstructive, I’m trying to find out why on Earth would you have taken that course of action.”
A saliva testing contract for border workers has been mired in behind the scenes controversy.
A spokeswoman for the Ministry of Health says it is reviewing its position on saliva testing on the back of the Microbiology Network’s changed position. The ministry’s position has changed in recent months from scepticism to now being “confident” saliva testing could identify Covid-19 cases early.
The Microbiology Network also admits there is a real possibility people have not been getting tested for Covid-19 because saliva testing has not been available.
Groundbreaking Kiwi scientist Dr Anne Wyllie helped develop the SalivaDirect test at the Yale University’s School of Public Health.
[Her colleague] Steph Tan has provided the Government with research indicating saliva testing could be as accurate as nasal swabs, and better at early detection, along with cost comparisons showing that, while nasal swab testing might cost up to $200 per test, saliva testing with the SalivaDirect method costs less than $7 per test. Figures provided under the Official Information Act indicate each nasal swab test costs the taxpayer $138.
Wyllie says the true proof is that their protocol has been validated overseas, and has been used to control outbreaks.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126419825/covid19-uturn-on-saliva-testing-as-fears-grow-around-nasal-swab-hesitancy
Be good if we can move to a lot more use of saliva testing. I haven’t needed to get a nasal swab, thank goodness. Those getting them shown on TV sure look like they’re enjoying the procedure.
And I’d hate to have to visit a mass testing centre. Hope if I ever need one I can get it done at my GP’s Medical Centre.
+100 much faster and less invasive
“Those getting them shown on TV sure DON’T look like they’re enjoying the procedure.” is what I meant to say. 🙄
Ye, Ad, & I’d hope the kits could be handed over at GP Centres as well as Pop-up Testing Centres.
I know this might be slightly off-topic, but I would be interested to hear people's thoughts on this:
"Antihistamines and azithromycin as a treatment for COVID-19 on primary health care – A retrospective observational study in elderly patients"
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7833340/#!po=34.9057
Does this sound like a promising treatment?
Ask your GP instead of Google.
Sir John Key:
"The aim should no longer be to exist in a smug hermit kingdom, but to get back to a life where New Zealanders can travel overseas – for any reason – knowing they can return home when they want to, and where we again welcome visitors to this country.
These are not radical aims, yet there has been no coherent plan shared with the public for when or how these might be achieved. The only urgency we've seen for months is an enthusiasm to lock down our country.
…Will you wish that in 2021 the Government had acted with the urgency and creativity that Nasa showed when suddenly having to rethink its approach to the Apollo 13 mission? Nasa succeeded. It proved that to get a different outcome, you need a different strategy."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-sir-john-key-5-ideas-to-transform-our-approach/PJH3TEOR6WEVADOOHWLKFBVK74/
Sometimes I miss John Key. At least he writes well:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-sir-john-key-5-ideas-to-transform-our-approach/PJH3TEOR6WEVADOOHWLKFBVK74/
Snap! See above.
I'm confident the government is actually considering all those factors Key mentions, and is making plans.
But while the situation is still as fluid as it is right now, talking in detail about things that are still months away simply hands out ammo for petty gotcha politics when the situation inevitably changes and the response needs to change.
I do agree that I would prefer the government to be louder and firmer about our future with vaccine passports, supporting "no jab, no job" policies, vaccination requirements for schools etc. So that dreamers about the "North Korea option" can get a head start on disabusing themselves of that notion.
It's quite impressive how the government is quietly stating it's direction and thinking about how we are going to handle the controlled infection of our population by covid, and the opposition groups are then coming along and calling for those exact steps to be taken. All of a sudden someone does a poll and the Government has 80%+ approval ratings.
The no jab, no entry thing to licensed premises could be interesting, the one next door to us wouldn't have any staff if their staff's compliance of masking is any indication, masks were around the chin after a day, around the neck the next and gone completely the next. No worries about the 50 / 100 punter limit though, lucky to have 20.
Yeah, the government is slipping talk about vaccine passports etc into the talk in a low-key way, and good for them for doing it. To my taste, I'd rather they were louder and firmer about it. But hey, they're the political experts, and I'm not.
I'm gobsmacked at just how incoherent and disorganised "the opposition" really is. Which doesn't actually serve us as a nation. There really are reasonable and nuanced criticisms of our response that could be made, and reasonable alternatives proposed. But that's not happening, all we're getting is knee-jerk thoughtless swipes that are so obviously clueless spur-of-the-moment brainfarts that it's just background noise that most people just tune out.
Dunno what to make of the masking thing. Masking around my area and where I work is pretty good, even though both those areas are well away from where the ongoing infections are happening. But if it were Queenstown that was locked down in level 3 and no infections anywhere else, I'd imagine masking around here would be quite minimal. All to do with the immediacy of the perceived risk.
You also have to ignore the deafening voices of tens of thousands of New Zealanders who are having their citizenship compromised by being stranded overseas. A very few of them manage to get back when public servants in Wellington decide whose plight is desperate enough to be rewarded with a golden ticket to MIQ.
Yup that's us. We're not making a noise about it – but the hard truth is that my elderly father has been isolated and stranded in a rest home for going on 2 yrs now. It's been very hard on him, and rough on my conscience – and while we could technically make it back to NZ – there is zero chance we could return to our lives and incomes in Australia.
Also interestingly if these restrictions continue to impact travel there arises a problem with the restrictions on voting eligibility for New Zealand permanent residents and citizens who have to have 'visited' New Zealand with the past 12 months or 3 years respectively. This was always an irksome niggle because it effectively required us to spend money on an airfare and travel costs in order to vote.
As Key calls it the 'hermit kingdom' COVID approach will have the effect of even further disenfranchising even more New Zealanders living overseas than before if it entails a minimum of two weeks in MIQ simply to exercise a fundamental democratic right.
My sympathies for your father's situation.
Before ma passed away in a Rest Home & Hospital in Tawa last April 2020 during L4 lockdown I was only able to talk to her on the phone until she lost the ability & strength to handle phone calls.
Ma was 94 when she died. She refused to let me teach her the internet. She'd got by all those years without ever needing computer & was a very strong-minded woman all her life. It meant we couldn't video call.
Are you at least able to video call your dad?
I have a Dunedin mother-in-law who never learned to use a cellphone, let alone the internet. She's shifted into geriatric hospital care just after Auckland went into lockdown, and we've not been able to see her since lockdown. Hopefully soon ……
I had a weeny win with ma on that score; talked her into getting a mobile & dhe never regretted it.
I had to put all of her contacts in for her, but she knew how to dial mobile & landline numbers from it if she needed to.
It was an early Samsung clamshell type model. I gave up expecting her to text from it. She couldn't get the hang of the options (like "add number" to select the recipient. "But they're already in there?" And she wouldn't practice by sending texts to her own number, like I did. "I'm too busy" 😀
She used it as a mobile telephone onl, but made plenty of use of it when out & about.
How old's your mum-in-law, Ad?
Sounded OK on the telephone last night which the Dunedin Hospital staff get to her, thanks. Not sure where to next for her yet.
If it's anything like the situation in Welly, you'll likely need to yourself find a Rest Home & Hospital for her. We had to check out all those in Welly who offered Hospital-level care, not just Rest Home-level.
Then up to us to check them out on the net, and visit those who had places available, before signing up to one.
Yes the staff organise a call every few weeks. He can't see much anymore and his hearing isn't the best – and pretty much all we can do is to try and reassure him we haven't forgotten and we do care.
Sometimes he rambles on for two hours or more and it leaves us feeling drained and saddened at our inability to be there for him.
And we're the lucky ones – one of my colleagues came over from India early 2019 and has not been able to see his young wife and children for two years now. Like us he's being forced to choose between income and family. Around the world COVID has forced millions into this unpalatable choice.
And this inability to say goodbye is probably the most quietly corrosive element to this entire pandemic.
Thanks for the support. None of us are on our own in this it seems.
That would make you one of our more committed voters.
Looks like his investments in Air New Zealand and Auckland Airport are hurting a tad.
And where does he get the thing about "we are no longer making our way in the world"? I thought our net export receipts and balance of trade were holding up very well.