The Greens in Te Tai Tokerau

13 comments on “The Greens in Te Tai Tokerau ”

• Comments are now closed

1. adam 1

   20 February 2017 at 2:31 pm

   Good choice by Greens, I hope he is up there on the Greens list.

   This will be one to watch, I’m not sure Hono can win it. But I do like his Māori first approach this time around.
   • garibaldi 1.1

     20 February 2017 at 4:14 pm

     I would have preferred the Greens to not put up a candidate to give Hone a better chance. This move by the Greens is not wise if we want a change of govt. They could have chased the list vote in this electorate. Maybe Shaw is leaning to the blue-Greens more? Hope not.
     • solkta 1.1.1

       20 February 2017 at 5:10 pm

       The Greens have a MOU with Labour. Mana has just made a similar deal with the Maori Party. The Maori Party has been holding up a National government for three terms and are supporting the RMA changes that will do things like remove Northland’s GE Free status and give developers an open field to develop coastal land.

       The Greens will still be just chasing the list vote only in TTT as they do in every other electorate.
     • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.2

       21 February 2017 at 3:41 am

       Electorate candidates are part of the Greens’ party vote strategy, Garibaldi. It lets them get into local candidate debates, attend events, and put a local face to the party’s values, and some people (still, sadly) get confused and don’t realise you can split your party and electorate vote, so for those people it gives them the two-tick option they’re looking for. The Greens currently aren’t running in electorates to win electorates.

       Now, you may be right that Mana back in Parliament is a strategically better position for the Greens, as the Greens have a lot in common with BOTH independent Māori parties, and at least Hone is solidly left-wing. However, unlike Labour, there is no agreement with the Mana, Māori, or New Zealand First parties that they’re going to work to change the government first and foremost. Therefore, it’s reasonable to assume that any accomodations with those parties, until they sign onto a deal similar to Labour and the Greens’ MOU, is possibly going to aid National in forming a government, and Labour and the Greens should both act in their potential coalition’s interests first.

       Mana is probably the least likely party of the three to do so, but you heard talk from Hone in the announcement today of possibly re-merging the two parties. That would definitely make it a long-term strategic blunder to help Hone, as the MP has been clear that they will go into coalition with whoever forms a government, if they’ll have them, which means Hone won’t be a guaranteed left-wing seat anymore, he’ll be a left-wing MP in a centrist/non-aligned party.
2. Tiger Mountain 2

   20 February 2017 at 3:25 pm

   Hone wuz definitely robbed last time, and so was the country by not having him and maybe one other IMP in parliament, heh even old Dover came out swinging against Hone

   the Greens should resist temptation here if the main goal is indeed sending the Nats packing

   Hone’s interview today was reflective and it looks like more of the original kaupapa of the MP may re-emerge
3. swordfish 3

   20 February 2017 at 3:41 pm

   How did Greens in TTT split their candidate vote at the last Election ?

   2014 Green Party-Vote 2,278

   Candidate Vote choice by Greens
   …. Harawira (IMP) 42% (953), …. Davis (Lab) 40% (916), …. Paenga (Maori) 12% (262)
   • Matthew Whitehead 3.1

     21 February 2017 at 3:48 am

     Cheers. Looking at those numbers, I think it’s reasonable to assume that voters who supported Paenga and don’t want to try to boost Rudolph to 5% will switch to Mr. Harawira, so it’s just a matter of whether there’s a push to recoup Rudolph’s electorate deposit from the more motivated Greens in TTT, or whether they’re going to be pushing for their preferred non-Green candidates. Māori seem to get vote-splitting pretty well, so it may be that there won’t be the same issues we’ve seen in Ōhāriu, where the push to recoup that deposit effectively decides the candidate by default.

     My normal suspicion is that Green electorate voters who prefer to recoup the electorate deposit are reluctant Labour voters when there’s no Green option, but we’ll see in this case.
4. gsays 4

   20 February 2017 at 5:18 pm

   good info and analysis, weka.

   my gut response to this news was here we go again.
   the prime oppurtunity for another left party in parliament, and, yet again, made harder by centre left crowd.
   i read somewhere that larger centre left parties do not like parties to the left of them and this seems to confirm it.

   i know it is far more complex than this.
   • solkta 4.1

     20 February 2017 at 6:16 pm

     I think you will find that it is actually much simpler than that. It is clear that the Party Vote is lower for a given electorate if the party concerned does not run an electorate candidate. Even just having a name on the ballot makes a difference. Godfrey will likely be a good candidate, so he could make a big difference to the Green Party party vote in TTT.
     • weka 4.1.1

       20 February 2017 at 6:39 pm

       Yes, both Godfrey and Turei have said he will be going for the party vote. But still, this does come across as an intentional decision by the Greens to not take Harawira into account, hence saying they won’t undermine Kelvin Davis. I can understand why, IMP was bad for the Greens last time round.
     • gsays 4.1.2

       20 February 2017 at 8:21 pm

       hi solkta,
       i agree with most of that.
       hopefully there is a way that greens get their party vote wishes fulfilled and hone gets into parliament.
       • Matthew Whitehead 4.1.2.1

         21 February 2017 at 3:57 am

         Oh, there’s definitely a way. Two ways, in fact.

         One is that Greens who already split their votes continue to do so, and only people who were convinced to change their Party Vote by the electorate candidate’s presence double-tick. That’s relatively unlikely, but it could happen to a degree large enough that the Greens’ entering a candidate doesn’t alter the outcome of the race, and would mean the Greens wouldn’t be likely to swing the race away from Hone. I would expect that those swayed would likely have been Labour or Māori Party voters in the past, as in my experience people who want to party vote really left but don’t like the Greens are not hugely likely to change their minds easily.

         The other is that there does come a push from existing GP voters to get the Green candidate to 5% of the electorate vote… but it comes largely out of the faction of TTT Greens who supported Davis last election. If that’s the case, the Greens’ candidate will have actually helped Hone get elected. My suspicion is that if the Greens’ entry has any effect on the winner, this is the most likely one, but my confidence on that isn’t to betting levels just yet.
   • saveNZ 4.2

     21 February 2017 at 10:49 am

     Kinda agree with gsays, Here we go again.

     I like Hone Hawawira and want him back. I also like the Greens so don’t really like them standing against him. Think Labour made a mistake last time running against him.

• Comments are now closed

• Log in
• Donate
• Contribute post

• Articles RSS