Written By:
mickysavage - Date published:
10:19 am, September 28th, 2024 - 69 comments
Categories: chris bishop, health, making shit up, Media, Shane Reti, spin, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, you couldn't make this shit up -
Tags:
National is getting lots and lots of flack about its announcement that the plans for Dunedin Hospital are going to be scaled back.
And it deserves every piece of opprobrium that is being thrown at it.
Because on the scale of cynical breaches of pre election promises this is right up there with the worst.
The Dunedin Hospital rebuild has some history.
National had promised the hospital for years but never committed any money to it.
Then Labour actually committed to the project and set aside budget for it.
There were cost pressures and at one stage Labour proposed reducing the number of beds, cutting back two operating theatres and reducing MRI scanners from three to two.
This was still a significant improvement on what is currently there. Bed numbers would have increased from 367 to 398 and the number of operating theatres would have increased from 17 to 26.
But after strong opposition Labour found extra money and promised that the hospital as originally envisaged would be built. Bed numbers would be 410 and operating theatres would be 28.
It also used the fast track legislation to push the consent through. And construction of the Outpatients’ Building has started and the building is scheduled to be operational in 2026.
National however saw the opportunity of an attack. The details are set out in this piece by Mike Houlahan in the Otago Daily Times:
The main event of Mr Luxon’s visit was earlier in the day, when National finally came off the fence and gave a definitive answer about what it would do with the new Dunedin hospital.
For months now its Dunedin list MP, Michael Woodhouse, has been decrying cuts and clawbacks to the project, but has not responded when asked the natural follow-up: “So what would your party do about it?” The answer, as of yesterday, is reverse them.
The reluctance to commit to that course of action has been somewhat understandable: the project’s costs continue to soar and National’s prospective finance minister, Nicola Willis, will have baulked at signing a blank and potentially very much more expensive cheque. That policy void has proven a handicap for Mr Woodhouse though, who has not been able to mount as fierce an attack as he might have liked to so far on the Government on the issue .
In the scheme of things the $30 million National estimates it would take to reverse the cutbacks from the project’s detailed business case is not large, although it feels a somewhat heroic assumption given the ever-increasing cost to build the new hospital and never decreasing impact delays and inflation are having on that cost.
The commitment to fund the extra beds was set out in crystal clear terms in National’s policy document:
A National government will build the hospital Dunedin needs, delivering all the beds, operating theatres and radiology services that Labour removed.
The cost of this commitment is $29.5 million and will be fully funded as part of the next National government’s programme of capital investment.
This will cover 23 inpatient beds, two operating theatres, and a PET scanner at Dunedin Hospital.
It has been six long years with almost no progress in Dunedin and meanwhile, the health of patients suffers. The South deserves a hospital that will be fit for purpose for generations, not a patch up job.
The previous National Government committed to delivering the hospital that people in the South needed, and we will follow through with that promise.
National knows how to get things done, and it is past time to accelerate this painfully slow-moving project.
This statement is so cynical. Labour had already agreed to reinstate the extra beds and operating tables and the MRI scanner. Labour had set aside the funding and fast tracked the consent application and had started construction of one of the new buildings.
And National had not done a thing during its last term to advance the hospital.
The problem for National and the main reason for the budget increase is that construction costs have soared. This Checkpoint article suggests that they have increased by 49% since 2017.
Anyone who thought about the issue would realise that the costs would increase and more budget would be needed.
National needed cover however and commissioned the Rust Report which is somewhat ironic because National regularly accused Labour of being out of control because of the number of reviews that it commissioned.
The difference however is that Labour commissioned reports to do things, National commissions them to stop things.
The report does not quite say what Chris Bishop suggests that it says. You could conclude that Ayesha Verrall was right when she determined that Bishop was pulling figures out of part of his gastroenterological system.
This graph suggests that total costs could be in the vicinity of $2.6 billion.
And strangely this includes additional workforce costs. With a growing and ageing population workforce requirements will increase. This is why health budgets need to be increased every year without fail and why this year’s increase, which was below the rate of inflation, is essentially a cut. It should not be part of a construction budget.
The recommendations in the report contradict National’s assertions:
The report concluded that the delivery of the project as currently scoped and planned is probably not achievable within the approved budget. But it had these extra line items incuding staff costs and refurbishment of the existing building and the pathology lab which should be funded elsewhere.
Radio New Zealand has posted this article asking if National checked its numbers before it made its Dunedin Hospital promises.
The answer would appear to be a resounding NO.
Meanwhile Dunedin needs a new hospital.
And the construction industry is crying out for contracts and projects.
This is deeply, deeply cynical politics by National and it will hurt them big time.
And the question has to be asked, can we trust National to do anything that it has promised?
On Q & A in March 2023 there was a discussion between Jack Tame and the Infrastructure Commission’s Ross Copland why infrastructure budgets always blow out. Think hospitals, ferries. Only 10 minutes long and well worth it.
On similar lines quite recently, City Rail Link CEO Sean Sweeney speaks about why New Zealand seems to struggle to complete large infrastructure projects on time and on budget.
geez its NOT the teachers that need help with maths.
They are punishing Dunedin for not voting for them.
Since Michael Woodhouse left, they don't even have any Nat list MPs here any more. Mark Patterson (NZ First) is the closest government MP we have, and he's Balclutha.
From the pedants corner… It is flak, not flack. A flack is a PR stooge. Flak is a borrowed acronym from the German Flieger Abwehr Kanonen, literally "anti-flyer cannon" which replaced "Ack Ack" during WW2 as the term to describe anti aircraft gunfire….
Anyway, the southerners will go bananas over this – I am sure Ad will update us on the reaction! It is a straight up reneging on a clear election promise which in retrospect was clearly always a lie given Luxon's and Willis's commitment to austerity.
Politically they may calculate it as doing little damage, since Dunedin is solid red/Green anyway and the rest of Otago would – and arguably frequently has – elected blue rosette hominids who strayed away from the main evolutionary tree some time ago.
But ah, but once you've safely got you rather dopey dairy farmer as local MP, wither might go the party votes…?
Was amusing seeing our RW mayor genuinely surprised the Nats reneged on this after they had promised him they wouldn't (face eating leopard etc). & thank goodness we have a genuine local news paper, thank you Sir Julian! I am at work today but I've been sent pictures from packed busses on their way down to the march to the packed march itself, & it's a nice day outside too.
It's genuinely hilarious watching the mayor (who is incredibly loyal to the Nats) having to suddenly act like an actual mayor.
300+ out in Wanaka.
Silver-haired bourgeois earthquake.
Never been on a march this slow or with such expensive glasses.
So good to be on a march again – I've missed them!
What did your banner say Ad?
Luxon lies
I liked the ones that said
This govt puts the 'N' in CUTS
and
ITS SO BAD, even introverts are here!
I liked "Even Southern Men get sick (sometimes)".
Interesting approach by the government. Not surprising, really, given that they were elected on a clear anti-public sector platform and lower taxes.
Put aside the impact on peoples health – I don't think people vote on the basis of their public health system or they wouldn't elect center right governments that promise to cut funding.
The economics is what is fascinating – what is the governments aim in cancelling or downsizing multiple infrastructure and maintenance projects across transport, schools and hospitals? I believe the intention is to deliberately weaken the construction sector by withdrawing public sector work and forcing the industry to be more competitive – less available work should result in lower costs from labor, business and supply chains.
In theory this under utilization of the building and construction sector should help the private sector by providing lower cost productive capacity.
It will not be used to build up public infrastructure – I think those days are over for NZ voters and it appears to be a choice that they are on board with.
The good people of Dunedin and the lower South Island can use their tax cuts to support the private health insurance and medical sectors. Which I think is part of the governments growth agenda – more clients and thus investment in private health as the public system is gradually degraded over time.
Tax cut? I got $2.25 a week – that will go a long way towards medical insurance /sarc.
I think I got $15.00 per week/$780.00 per annum I must be in a higher Tax Bracket. Baldrick the PM got $18k extra per annum/$346.00 per week I think I read in the newspapers. They are definitely looking after the upper socio economic groups. Health Care being set up for Privatisation by Levy/Luxon & SEymore.
Not surprising, really, given that they were elected on a clear anti-public sector platform and lower taxes.
They were elected on the promises they made.
No need to over-think it. Luxon made a promise, in Dunedin. Crystal clear, and unambiguous. No possible misunderstanding.
He has broken the promise.
(everything else is "whatabout" and irrelevant).
He made a promise to landlords as well – electorally the government has calculated no significant risk in shafting the lower South Island on health infrastructure. Those accessing health care, like the disabled, are a minority whose needs can can be largely ignored with little electoral consequence.
Upsetting landlords or failing to deliver a $5 tax cut to the average worker was deemed the higher priority and more likely to return the electoral rewards needed in 2026.
The same way they broke their promise about cancer drugs funding. Arrogantly thought they could get away with it but in the end were shamed into carrying out their promise. I expect that the NACTs will eventually grudgingly swallow the extra costs but will prune a bit here and there when the project is built – using David Seymour or Shane Jones to create a diversion so hopefully no-one will notice what they are doing.
The Dunedin City Council estimates that the protest turnout was about 35,000. In a city of 120,000 (including students).
Very little below the Waitaki River is of any consequence to Parliament – Not much below Cook Straight seems of interest. The BIG voting block is in the Auckland region and most of the rest North of the Straight. All of which is of major consideration in deciding which voters to shaft.
Then there is the consideration of sticking it to those who did not vote for them ….
The South Island as a whole is still a quarter of the country's population (versus the third in Auckland).
The real problem is that nineteen out of twenty cabinet ministers are North Islanders (the one South Islander is Cantabrian). This is a government by Auckland for Auckland… which rather implies that a Labour Party with brains would be targeting the provinces.
It will be interesting to see if that comes to pass. So far, little sign that Labour is re-thinking their electioneering.
,
Well today was a turn out. We know Ad was there and I think he’s Labour!
Top down there’s no money. Fewer resources than when they were in government, not a lot of donations and they’re still having a think about their plans.
But it seems bottom up the opposition to these latest lies and cuts have done a good job here and there’s plenty of good Labour people amongst them. I believe Pete Hodgson also spoke out against what was going on.
People turned out in Nelson before to protest cuts to services supporting mothers.
There’s certainly energy in the Labour movement and Labour people, including MPs past and present putting their case to a provincial audience. That’s the way to win votes.
Chippie flying in with a promise might help, but local people protesting local effects of this cynical government and people they know seeing that will be more likely to move the dial.
How do you see a resurgence of grass-roots Labour (or to be fair, Greens or other opposition party membership), changing the entrenched political leadership?
Well power is where the votes are.
At the moment the spotlight is on Dunedin.
It’s a chance for the provinces to grab Labour, rather than the other way around. It’s clear that the trade off for tax cuts is town killers. Closures of the main employers. And in Wellington the government is doing that voluntarily. And then trying to blame other things.
And not just that. Tax ccut, no jobs and broken healthcare promises. No mental health call outs by the police.
The government has failed the provinces and simply doesn’t care.
Labour had funded the hospital. What other promises can be extracted? What would a responsible Labour government be doing, shorn of nice to haves, given the very real harms being dealt to the country?
The voters will have forgotten by next Election especially if there is a bribe out there for More Tax Cuts.
So what you are saying is that money allocated for "Dunedin Hospital under Labour has been diverted to Tax Cuts for Landlords ???".
This is a pretty disingenuous argument. Labour had already cut a lot off the initial hospital design, and the remainder had financially blown out (and was certainly not fully funded).
I'm not arguing that National was 'right' to further cut back the build. But Labour had certainly not fully funded the hospital.
What I'd like to see is some analysis over why it's so expensive to build not just hospitals, but anything in NZ.
https://talkwellington.org.nz/2024/why-does-it-cost-so-much-to-build-stuff-in-new-zealand/
Sometimes you've just gotta build (expensive) new stuff, as opposed to patching up the old stuff, although Kiwis can be proficient patchers.
Maybe if cost estimates for lengthy essential infrastructure projects, e.g. projects that span more than 3 or even 6 years from planning to completion, were more realistic, then voters wouldn't have to put up with the delivery of ferries, hospitals and the like being re-jigged from govt to CoC govt. Start-stop / boom-bust cycles are wasteful, and unsettling.
I'd certainly agree that we need better political consensus across major infrastructure projects in NZ – to enable long term planning, and effective development.
I don't have any confidence that any political party is willing to sign on for this.
Consensus is possible – Labour and National agreed on a response to our housing emergency, and Shaw brought National into the fold on greenhouse gas emissions targets.
Might be wishful thinking, but perhaps our CoC govt has expressed an interest in doing something similar?
I agree that obtaining a lasting political consensus on how to address medium-to-long-term existential threats could be very difficult, but if it's impossible then we are all well and truly poked.
https://www.climatechangepost.com/news/methane-emissions-are-increasing-fueling-global-warming/
stupidity, fear, and greed = FOMO [not at all related to HOMO and LUMO; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HOMO_and_LUMO ]
@Incognito
If you have confidence that National has remained in the fold over greenhouse gas emissions targets, you have a greater level of confidence in them, than I do.
Not my contention.
I agree that obtaining a lasting political consensus on how to address medium-to-long-term existential threats could be very difficult, but if it’s impossible then we are all well and truly poked – no?
From our expert on disingenuous arguments I would normally give in, however I think Labour can be dicks, but not assholes.
In addition…over the past few years, successive governments have recognised that inflation (and the soaring construction costs post Covid) were pushing up the cost of the original project. That’s why the Labour government approved capital funding to $1.59 billion, and this year’s Budget topped that up by a further $290 million, which brings us to the government’s current ‘line in the sand’ figure of $1.88 billion for the entire build.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2410/S00001/on-the-dunedin-hospital-fiasco.htm
Save your disbelief for the ‘doctors’ who are defunding the health service, while backing tobacco companies. Politicians first, never doctors perhaps. First, do…?
Good comment. Chippie should have been there with bells on. It is called leadership.
Get to the place of high ginger density and speak to the people of Otago and Southland! Surf the wave, don’t arrive at low tide..
Okay, Mickey and Bella you’ve convinced me. Better get head office involved too.
Better save the provinces while we can. No point building roads to where the mills used to be.
Plenty of Ginga's in Otago & Southland with Scottish Roots.
Better let Sir Simeon know we are shutting down the Provinces, waste of Tax Payers money building $30 Billion Highways to nowhere IMHO.
It must be galling for the conservative National South Island voters to see Auckland neo-liberal yuppie David Seymour the real power in the government and most of the planned new infrastructure going north.
National's message to their South Island supporters: Thanks for all the fish. We'll come back when we are hungry again in three years time.
Seymore is the defacto PM Luxon MIA
RNZ has a good coverage and lots of photos of the Dunedin and West Coast Health protests here.
Meanwhile more weasel words from the "Minister"
Yeah Right! Why can't they just come out and admit that they are more interested in cutting taxes for their mates than the welfare of the general public.
This is what the voters in NZ voted for and wanted, this Government is tightening the country's belt and delivering handsomely for it's support base ie Landlord's and the Upper Socio Economic Groups meanwhile slamming those pesky Maaori's and the Bottom Feeders.
Yes the country got the govt that they deserve and voted for. But like the Chump supporters in the US a significant number are sheepish* enough to believe the myriad of lies they are fed on a daily basis. I have never voted for them and never will, even if they did offer an election bribe to me of $1m, (wink wink nudge nudge say no more say no more) because I know at what cost that would be to others.
* Actually that is a bit unkind to sheep 🙁 and I won't call them Goats because that would be unkind to goats. No good calling them bird brains even tho Birds of a feather flock together – but birds can navigate their way from the Arctic to Miranda so they're not stupid either.
I agree. NZ voters made this choice consciously and they don't seem to mind the consequences. There is a cruel streak in democratic politics that this government has tapped into very effectively.
Do you like sociopaths? CS.
We love being beaten with a Big Stick, we as a Nation have learned nothing since Lange & Roger the Rat beat the living daylight's out of us in the 1980's. Ruthless Ruth Richardson, Muldoon's love child dealt to us in the 1990's and we loved it. Key played us for a bunch of moron's which we all thoroughly enjoyed, now Baldrick, Seymore and Uncle Winston are kicking us low life's, from pillar to post which we all love.
They don't need to. Those of us who give a damn already know that. Those who voted for them just to get a few extra $$ a week and/or vote out Labour might eventually realise they've been had, and not vote for them next time, and that could amount to quite a lot of votes. So much easier to deny, deflect, and anything except admit.
And Reti should be struck off the medical register for bringing the profession into disrepute.
Would have just the slightest bit of credibility if they said what they were going to do to deliver the region's health infrastructure needs at the same time they put the axe through a project that was going to deliver some new health infrastructure.
But no, they cancel then run away.
Totally agree with Kay regarding Reti. He’s an insult to all the doctors that have the Dr title. No way would I call him a doctor now. He’s a bought and paid for corrupt politician.
Levy and Reti….birds of a feather, vultures.
Reti is doing what he is told otherwise he will be down the road.
Which shows true colours from the both of them.
All about the money, so much for those oaths they took.
And of course in all of this – neither Health NZ, Reti nor any of the perhaps criminally insane coalition homebodies have committed one cent of $45M needed for the very necessary pathology laboratory for the Austin 10 hospital that they are setting out their vision for.
I understand that the doffuses have planned for $5M for a pneumatic tube from the Austin 10 to the well past use-by date Clinical Services Block. The CSB which magically can in the future somehow be refurbished at some ridiculous and unfunded cost.
Perhaps instead of being honest about the necessity of laboratory medicine (in a new up to date facility) to medical decision making – with some 70% of those decisions relying on those laboratory results – the lie-making machine at the heart of this government will tell us those critical tests are a nice-to-have that our health system which is allegedly awash with dollars does not need.
Perhaps Seymore will allocate more money for the Euthanasia Clinic's ???
Lets face it this is the Christchurch hospital rebuild version 2.
Remember that debacle from 2014 -17.
National under John Key tried to downgrade that rebuild that is still ongoing fixing the earthquake damage 14 years later,
So this bullshit is par for the course by a national led govt.
It is why our hospital bed numbers in private hospitals and public hospitals have reduced by 50% over the last 44 years along with the number of public and private hospitals.
1000 locals marched in Westport; Where was Maureen Pugh who is now the local MP?
Hoping lightning doesnt strike again? Might be Voter lightning soon!
When the regional hospitals are threatened with closure or downgrading( and we all know that is going to happen under this CoC don't we?) , it will be interesting to see whether the local National constituent MPs do what they promised – to work for their electorate or follow their leader and leave the people to their fate and a 9-5 office hours health clinic instead of a proper hospital.
Health..and Hospital is a major in everyones life. Will indeed be interesting to see how the local NACT1 mp's roll. Some may see a career in private Health ?
dr Jonathon Colman ..was he readying our NZ Health system for privatisation? IMO yes! Then..left.
Oh and I forgot this ! Nothing changes to the present crew aye?
I can see the Privatization of the NZ Health System on the Horizon as NACT1st will argue we don't have the funds to build new hospitals and resources to run our Health Department.
Off being [blankety] useless somewhere, as usual.
Onya Westport!
Don’t accept their lies.
Just a shambles. But sadly it is no better than Labour. Jacinda promised this in the lead up to the 2017 election and that construction would start pre 2020 (ie before Covid). It is time to leave the old parties of Labour and National in the dust as the lameduck parties that they are.
Ardern raises stakes over Dunedin hospital | RNZ News
8 National Party health policy statements
7. Dunedin Hospital
https://assets.nationbuilder.com/nationalparty/pages/18436/attachments/original/1696286925/Better_Health_Outcomes.pdf?1696286925