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The Iowa Caucuses

Written By: - Date published: 3:30 pm, February 2nd, 2016 - 98 comments
Categories: us politics - Tags:

Donald Trump down the drain

The Presidential Primary race is up and running with results from Iowa trickling in.

Live feeds are available from the Des Moines Register or Nate Silver’s 538 website.

At the time of writing Clinton is just ahead of of Saunders and on the Republican side Cruz is 3% ahead of Trump with Marco Rubio a strong third.

Could be interesting …

Post will be updated with progress.

Update:  The democratic race is going down to the wire while the Republicans have backed Cruz over Trump with Rubio finishing a strong third.

Democrat Iowa caucus

Update2: The democratic count has finished effectively as a dead heat with only 0.2% separating the candidates with Clinton slightly ahead.

98 comments on “The Iowa Caucuses ”

  1. Sabine 1

    life blog on daily kos,
    its gonna be tight.

    will it be Ted Cruz
    “I’m a Christian first, American second, conservative third and Republican fourth. I’ll tell ya, there are a whole lot of people in this country that feel exactly the same way.”

    or Don the Trump
    “Donald Trump continued to talk up his relationship with Vladimir Putin today.
    ‘He’s right, I am brilliant,’ Trump declared at a rally this afternoon. ‘That’s a good thing. That’s not a bad thing.'”

    ahhh, interesting times

    http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/1/1478358/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Iowa-caucus-liveblog-thread-3

    • miravox 1.1

      Jeez, I’m almost wanting Trump to win – at least you don’t really know what Trump thinks with all his statements over the years, who knows what his decision-making position on a topic will be?

      With Cruz, we know exactly what he thinks – and what he thinks is really, really scary.

      • sabine 1.1.1

        Nope i think the one to watch is Rubio. He almost kicked Trump off his second (bwhahahahahahahahah looooser!!!) place and gave Trump a good run for his money.

        Cruz is so disliked by pretty much anyone, but was voted for to not have to vote for Trump.
        Rubio is just as rabid as Cruz but less outspoken and with that fake ‘softer’ attitude.
        Interesting times. No matter what, if it is a Republican that is gonna run the Madhouse that is the US Of A, the world is fucked. If it is Hillary, the world might have a chance, If it is Bernie the world would have a chance as he is neither a complete warhead nor a religious nutter.

        Feel better now?

        • miravox 1.1.1.1

          Noooo, I’m not feeling better now!

          Just have to hope for the Democrats – and that Bernie pulls Clinton to the left. And away from being an establishment pollie (although that would be difficult).

          • sabine 1.1.1.1.1

            I don’t think anything can pull Clinton to the left. She is calcified in her position.
            I would however suggest to Bernie Sanders to stay away from small aircrafts. They tend to fall from the skies in the USA when flying popular socialistic minded politicos in the states (remember Paul Wellstone?)

            🙂

  2. mickysavage 2

    The Democratic race is narrowing. Lead to Clinton down to 2% points. Who would have thought this a month ago?

  3. Phil 3

    Nate Silver, as usual, nails it:

    … not yet any proof in tonight’s results that Sanders can expand his performance beyond his base of white and liberal voters, which are plentiful in Iowa and New Hampshire but less so elsewhere. Instead, Sanders’s supporters seem to have been exactly who we thought they were. Sanders did really well among “very liberal” voters and extraordinarily well among young voters, but not very well among moderates, women or older voters.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/iowa-caucus-presidential-election-2016/

    • Ad 3.1

      I’m loving Nate’s coverage as usual.

      Also HuffPost, just for the leftie amplifier.

      Very impressed with Rubio’s surge. Looking forward to the Republicans winnowing down to 3.

      • mickysavage 3.1.1

        Rubio is the least terrifying Republican and possibly the most dangerous. I would not be surprised if he wins.

        • sabine 3.1.1.1

          i tend to disagree with you on that one.

          Rubio is as mad and as bought as the other, he is just not as noisy.
          I agree that i would not be surprised if he wins, and fuck it that would be horrible.

  4. Sabine 4

    oh my oh my

    Hillary 50%
    Sanders 50%

    biggest winner on the red side, Marco fucking Rubio……oh dear……lol. hahahahahahahahahahahahahah.

    and frankly with all the dead talking of sanders it is a wonder he got a vote at all. Cause clearly the establishment and paid media parrots just can’t see him gain any traction at all.

    He has a 0.2 % difference to Hillary at the moment, rounded they both get 50%, i think considering that Hillary comes with the Dog and money, Sanders won. Comfortably. Maybe not all the delegates, but he won the popular vote.

    edit: 90% in, 628 HRC, 625 Feelin’ the bern. (from a comment of Daily Kos)

    http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/1/1478362/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Iowa-caucus-liveblog-thread-7

  5. Richard Christie 5

    Please let it be Trump. Better a grandstanding buffoon than a young Earth, science denying, religious maniac.

    • joe90 5.1

      Religious maniac Santorum was the 2012 Iowa winner and that didn’t work out too flash.

    • alwyn 5.2

      This reminds me of 1964.
      Barry Goldwater ran with a slogan of
      “In your heart you know he’s right”.
      The Johnson campaign had a wonderful parody
      “In your guts you know he’s nuts”.
      I think the voters in Iowa chose the first option for Trump when they were polled.
      Then when it came time to vote they took it seriously and chose the alternative.

      On the other hand I hope that we don’t get the equivalent of the rather bitter Republican bumper sticker of 1966 in a couple of years time.
      “They told me if I voted for Goldwater there would be 500,000 troops in Vietnam by 1966. Well I did and there are”
      If Hillary makes it will it be back to Iraq?
      1960s slogans and dates from memory. I can’t be bothered checking them.

  6. weka 6

    Does it go off the % or the delegate numbers? (Democrats).

  7. Michael 7

    49.9-49.6%! C’mon Bernie!

  8. joe90 8

    America
    /

    Andrew Tadlock
    ‏@andytadlock

    Unbelievable coin toss decides a dead heat in west Davenport! @HillaryClinton wins! @chucktodd @CNBC @NBCNews

    https://twitter.com/andytadlock/status/694340486908088320

  9. BM 9

    Clinton will be the next prez.

    We’ve had white guys
    We’ve had a black guy.

    Next in the pecking order is a white woman.

    • Pasupial 9.1

      BM

      With notions such as that, I guess this’ll be your Saturday night out?

      http://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/371747/crisis-group-alarmed-pro-rape-meetings

      • BM 9.1.1

        I don’t get it?, are you saying I want to rape women?

        • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1

          I reckon we might have a Maori Woman PM come 2020.

          • BM 9.1.1.1.1

            Paula Bennett?

            Good chance i’d say, certainly won’t be Collins, too much baggage and aggression.

            • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1.1.1

              Just think about it. Paula Bennett matched up against Grant Robertson in the 2020 election. You saw it here first.

            • North 9.1.1.1.1.2

              Paula Bennett’s as Maori as that tiki made in Japan hangin’ round your gnarled old neck BM. Likewise that showboat chappie Simon Bridges – ‘Maori when it matters, Mana in tatters’. Bullshit Bennett’s Maori. A tortured whakapapa (until of late always disowned) might say so, but nah, not really. No wairua.

          • Roy 9.1.1.1.2

            Mariana Davidson, baby!

          • Roy 9.1.1.1.3

            Marama Davidson, baby!

        • Pasupial 9.1.1.2

          BM

          My point was that your comment seems to ascribe to the “neomasculinist” notion that males are superior to females (and blacks inferior to other races).

      • greywarshark 9.1.2

        Pasupial
        In your opinion is your comment about BM aggressive, hostile, passive-aggressive, or a strawman one? How would you define it, inserting your own prejudices perhaps?

        • Pasupial 9.1.2.1

          greywarshark

          I’d probably go with; hostile, there wasn’t enough swearing for aggressive.

          I was trying to wryly express the point I elaborated on in comment 9.1.1.2, but obviously failed at that. I’ve not got much time for BM at the best of times, and having been reading about the “Return of Kings” crew did let myself get baited a bit by the whole; white guy>black guy>white woman, ranking. In retrospect I should have just commented: “This is the pet shop”.

          http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/02/02/neomasculinist-is-a-long-word-for-prick/

          • greywarshark 9.1.2.1.1

            Hi Pasupial
            Seems to be a good reason to keep sex off the range and keep gender on a leash. Let it off and it only frightens the horses and puts the wobbles on the points of discussion. It actually is an amorphous Mata Hari that undermines every attempt at intelligent discussion into which it waves its bosom or hairy chest.

            (To bolster my point – the real Mata Hari actually carried her confusing ways right to her death, according to Urban Dictionary.
            Mata Hari was a beautiful spy that was playing both sides of the field (Double Agent).
            Born 1876 Mata was a Dutch exotic dancer and a famous courtesan who was executed in 1917 by firing squad by the French for espionage during World War I i.e. Mata was a (French & German Spy)
            It is said upon her execution that she flung off her coat to expose a naked body to the firing squad.)

  10. North 10

    Busy busy workwise lately but with Iowa just tonight, been catching up. How bloody exciting ! The Bern’ ! This is Amerika’s immediate opportunity to be a REALLY great country. Give the US and The World another Roosevelt ! (New Deal edition not the earlier).

    Great to see T-Rump (thinks he’s T-Rex and not just on account of looks) given a little bit of a “ka kite”…….with the “ano” doubtful. See what money does in the US ?……enough money behind it a used condom could make it (almost).

    Go Bern’ ! New Hampshire’s gonna be good for him ! Senator, adjacent state, known there etc etc.

    • Lanthanide 10.1

      Sorry to burst your bubble, but Bernie just don’t have the demographics behind him.

      Iowa and New Hampshire are the best two states for him, and he couldn’t win Iowa.

      • North 10.1.1

        No bubble here Lanth’……ye who’s made ‘sour’ a (questionable) art form. I’m just putting myself back in ’08/’09 when it was “Who’s this black guy Obama ? No ! Could never happen !”

        Not to say that turned out too well necessarily.
        But ya gotta live your dreams Lanth’ ! Live them ! No more passive aggression/magisterial presence……please.

      • Olwyn 10.1.2

        There is a sense in which Bernie is winning whether he officially wins or not – he is breaking TINA’s stranglehold over the public imagination, and the genie that has been let out out of the bottle will not docilely return to it. As with the UK, the sleek professional politicians who are almost indistinguishable from news anchors, along with their wealthy backers, no longer have the floor to themselves.

        • North 10.1.2.1

          Insightful comment Olwyn……shame it’s missed on Trollwyn. And Sour Old Lanth’.

        • Colonial Viper 10.1.2.2

          Indeed – pulling neck and neck with the Clinton political mega machine is a massive moral victory for Sanders.

          End game – Sanders keeps dogging Hilary at every step, eventually forcing her to offer him the position of VP.

          • millsy 10.1.2.2.1

            No such thing is a ‘moral victory’ IMO. the only victory is the one where the number beside your name is bigger than the the number beside your opponents.

            • Olwyn 10.1.2.2.1.1

              I disagree. Once a large enough body of people are willing to shout “enough” they have to be taken into account. Especially right now, when the game has been sewn up for about 30 years. As Weka says below, turning the tide is a victory in itself.

            • crashcart 10.1.2.2.1.2

              Not true in a caucus where the media wrote him off essentially. One of the biggest sticks Clinton and the media have been beating Bernie with is that he is really a fringe candidate and that his support is really puffed up by social media. Running her so close when not long ago she had a massive lead will encourage Bernie supporters in other states to come out and vote.

              So yes she gets the tick in the box for winning Iowa but the close result is clearly beneficial to Bernie.

              • Phil

                the close result is clearly beneficial to Bernie

                Nope, totally wrong.

                If you look at the relative mix of Democrat voters in each state (White vs ‘minority’, liberal vs moderate, young vs old) then Iowa is about the sixth most favorable state for Sanders. Iowa, like New Hampshire, is an overwhelmingly White state with many more self identified liberal democrats than moderate democrats.

                If Sanders can’t expand his voting base enough to pull out a win in Iowa, then the rest of America looks quite far beyond his reach.

        • weka 10.1.2.3

          Completely agree Olwyn. This is why Corbyn has already won whether he becomes PM or not, or whether as PM he has to compromise too much. The victory is in turning the tide.

          • Lanthanide 10.1.2.3.1

            I think anyone who says “not winning the PM is still a victory” is kidding themselves. And they also have very low standards.

            The whole point of competing is to win. If you don’t win, you lose.

            • Colonial Viper 10.1.2.3.1.1

              Lanth, binary thinking becomes computers, not humans.

              • Lanthanide

                In America, the sitting president gets to select new supreme court judges. It’s arguably the largest impact a president will ever have.

                If you’re not president, because you didn’t ‘win’ your party’s nomination, then you can’t make that selection.

                Ergo, you didn’t win.

                Yes, it might be “a win for liberal politics”, but it’s not a win for the actual thing the candidate is trying to achieve. You can tell by the way they lost.

            • weka 10.1.2.3.1.2

              @ Lanth, I’m sure that’s how MPs feel about it too. But it’s not the whole story. I want change not power. It’s very difficult for the left to gain power at the moment without becoming centrist. If all Corbyn, Sanders etc do is turn the tide on the neoliberal experiment, that’s huge. And by turn the tide I mean re-engage mass numbers of people around fair society principles. Those kinds of changes have very long range influence, far beyond getting hold of the treasury benches for a term or two.

              If winning means turning into a proto-fascist, or National lite, or giving up on one’s values, then what is the win exactly? I’m not saying there aren’t compromises to be made. I basicaly now believe that Labour are doing the right thing given the circumstances. They don’t have a Corbyn in their ranks, they still have a bunch of Rogernomes that prevents the party from becoming more solidly left again, so they may as well work with what they’ve got and I think that’s what Little is doing. At some point if they do have a Corbyn and the Rogernomes are gone, then it will be easier for the party to go left if they’ve built some solid ground in the meantime. So getting Labour into government in a way that’s not a complete neoliberal sell out but still gets them there is a high priority for the next year or two (and preferably with the Greens along side).

              That’s all a way of saying that NZ is in quite a different situation than the US or the UK, and it makes sense here for Labour to focus on getting power. But in the US and the UK, the democrats or Blairites in power is not as important as changing the culture and that’s what Corbyn and Sanders are doing. In terms of social change, it’s huge.

      • North 10.1.3

        He couldn’t NOT win Iowa either Lanth’ ? And two months ago, who woulda thunk it ? Sorry, meant to say that earlier. Like who would thunk Obama late ’08 ?

        • Colonial Viper 10.1.3.1

          CNN Nov 25 2015:

          Hilary leads Sanders in a poll of Iowa Democrats, 51% to 42%: “The results mark very little change from a similar survey released October 23.”

          This tells me that to pull neck and neck since Oct and Nov 2015, Sanders has been gaining ground on Hilary, big time. The momentum is still behind him, not her.

          • North 10.1.3.1.1

            Cha CV ! You’re inspirational ! Completely meeting my mood tonight. ‘T-Rump T-Rex T-Gone T-Sulk’.

            Now……let’s get back to adult things.

            Absolutely everything there applies to T-Key……

            Imagine the bitch’s piss when he’s not made ‘Duke of Maui’ ?

  11. greywarshark 11

    When you get tired of trying to make out what is going on in the USA here is a link to one of the famous Wayang shadow puppet plays for a different approach to human drama,
    and probably just as intelligible if one watches closely.

    Indonesian

    Balinese

    Chinese play

    2nd Chinese play with English description

    Turkish shadow play

    Yes Dorothy there is life outside Iowa and North America.

  12. Manuka AOR 12

    The beginning of a revolution?

    “When Sanders finally spoke on Monday night, he drove home the message behind their virtual tie. “What Iowa has begun tonight is a political revolution”, he said, as the crowd erupted in screams. “When young people and working people and seniors begin to stand up and say loudly and clearly enough is enough … that the government of our great country belongs to all of us and not just billionaires, when that happens, we will transform this country.” ” http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/02/iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders-can-win-hillary-clinton-beatable

  13. millsy 13

    According to Wikipedia Cruz was born in Canada (meaning his parents didnt have to pay a cent for the birthing care).

    I was under the impression that to be eligible for the presidency, you have to be BORN in the USA. The only exceptions are pretty much those who were around in 1790-odd.

    Can someone help me out here..?

    Am I the only person, a humble office worker who lives in Taranaki, NZ to notice this?

    • swordfish 13.1

      Trump’s been making a big thing of it lately.

    • Andre 13.2

      A search for cruz birther should get you more than you ever want on the topic.

      In short, it’s not “settled law” whether Cruz is eligible or not. His particular circumstances have never been tested in court.

      Strict Constitutional originalists (which Cruz is) say that according to a strict interpretation of the exact words and intent of the writers of the constitution and relevant amendments, combined with legal judgements of the time, mean that Cruz is not eligible.

      Liberal interpreters of the Constitution that allow a degree of flexibility in interpreting the constitution according to changing social values (whom Cruz despises) claim that Cruz is eligible.

      • millsy 13.2.1

        Im probably not alone in thinking that this would be made a bigger deal if, say Sanders was born in Canada.

        • Grant 13.2.1.1

          It would make an even bigger deal if either of them were black and bigger again if they were muslim with it.

        • Colonial Viper 13.2.1.2

          Yep.

          But a Cruz presidency would clear the way for a Schwarzeneggar presidency!

          😀

    • North 13.3

      Mills’……enough of your 20% ‘humbles’ – quite a hoot ! Then there’s the ‘ascerbic’ in your last paragraph which put my mind to rest at once. Kia Ora !

      Question never occurred to me frankly. Me just swept over by the sense that Sanders would make a magnificent president. For his truth and his honesty and his heart. Has there been such a one ? Roosevelt, 75 years ago ?

      In the optimum we need someone for president who could always be trusted for his honesty and his true heart ?

      Something’s gotta happen sooner or later. Otherwise already very rich people make slaves out of you and me.

      Fuck Dat !

    • lprent 13.4

      Wikipedia is your friend – try using it a bit deeper.

      Both his parents were US citizens. Cruz was born while they were in Canada.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_eligibility_legislation
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural-born-citizen_clause

      The U.S. Constitution uses but does not define the phrase “natural born Citizen”, and various opinions have been offered over time regarding its precise meaning. The consensus of early 21st-century constitutional scholars, together with relevant case law, is that natural-born citizens include, subject to exceptions, those born in the United States. Many scholars have also concluded that those who meet the legal requirements for U.S. citizenship “at the moment of birth”, regardless of place of birth, are also natural born citizens, but the matter remains unsettled.[2][3] Every president to date was either a citizen at the adoption of the Constitution in 1789 or born in the United States; of those in the latter group, every president except two had two U.S.-citizen parents.[4]

      Note that this is a matter for the congress to decide. It just happens to be a Republican congress.

  14. rhinocrates 14

    Cruz is as awful as Trump, so it’s hardly a cause for celebration, but if you want a look at the sorts of people supporting Trump as an exercise in anthropology, have a look at this. They’re almost all old, white, emotionally immature, obsessed with guns, incapable of putting forth a coherent thought.

    “Like the man they idolize, these people tend toward simplistic slogans when asked questions; but when pressed or pressured, they lash out like bratty children.”

    http://www.vice.com/read/this-short-film-takes-you-inside-the-strange-world-of-donald-trump-supporters

    • Colonial Viper 14.1

      Nah, Trump appeals to a lot of very ordinary Americans who feel like they have to vote for someone, anyone, who is not part of the entrenched political establishment.

      The MSM demonisation campaign of Trump to me mirrors the one they launched against that past-it old has been unelectable Commie git, Corbyn (tongue in cheek).

      Also, note that Trump at the moment is speaking and messaging to the crowd that matters most to him at this stage: Republican electors.

      Once he gets the candidacy we are going to see an extremely charming, much more middle of the road Trump on the nationwide campaign trail.

      • Andre 14.1.1

        I don’t think Trump’s ever managed to do “charming” in public before.

        If he pulls it off, that would be an impressive new trick for an old dog.

      • Phil 14.1.2

        The MSM demonisation campaign of Trump

        I’m sorry, what?

        Trump has dominated the headlines for the best part of six months. He has had more media coverage than all the other presidential candidates (both Dem and Rep) combined.

        There has been no ‘demonisation’ of Trump, only a struggle to understand his support-base and frequent tittering at some of his (relatively speaking) more outlandish statements.

  15. North 15

    It may mirror in your mind CV but a megasecond of thought tells you that the respective phenomena are a million miles apart. Corbyn and T-Rump ? Are you satisfied they should be in the same sentence ? T-Rump is a backfiring pre-’48 Ford V8 . Corbyn is a man of honour. Just like Sanders. We gotta be inspired ! Look at the capital The Boy Prime Minister/Child Emperor made outa ‘aspiration’.

    • Colonial Viper 15.1

      The men are a million miles apart, yes. But the common electorate cynicism, distrust of both the political establishment and the establishment candidates, are highly aligned.

  16. Andre 16

    Being a currently controversial political issue, I’m not sure Wikipedia is actually a good source for answering this question. Too easily hijacked by nutters.

    At the time of Ted’s birth in Canada, his father Rafael Cruz was not a US citizen. Ted’s American citizenship is due to his mother being an American citizen at the time of his birth. There’s no doubt Ted is a citizen, the question is whether he’s a “natural-born” citizen in the context of the Constitution.

    That his citizenship comes only from his mother is one of the points the constitutional originalists use to claim Ted is not eligible, citing the lack of rights women had in those times and specific precedents from the time denying citizenship to people born abroad to American mothers and foreign fathers. Whereas the liberals are saying, come on, it’s the 21st century not the 18th, gender equality and all that, of course he’s eligible.

    Congress could pass a law clarifying who’s eligible, but I suspect that it could be challenged all the way to the Supreme Court. Congress could pass a Constitutional amendment, which would then have to be ratified by the states. Or someone could take a court case now which would go to the Supreme Court. But I’m not sure if the Supreme Court can actually take a hypothetical question, or would feel obliged to wait until Cruz was an actual president-elect before considering the question.

    Stock up on popcorn.

    • Andre 16.1

      sorry, the above was meant to be a reply to lprent at 13.4.

    • Lanthanide 16.2

      Typically the Supreme Court does not hear theoretical cases, because the specifics of every case matters, and in recent decades they try and write very specific rulings with as narrow applicability as possible, which very much relies on the specifics of each case.

      A fairly straightforward constitutional question like that could (IMO) be addressed by the Supreme Court, but I’d expect they’d probably require a specific case as well. However the Supreme Court is able to hear cases at extremely short notice, if required (as in Bush vs Gore re: Florida in 2000).

  17. Pasupial 17

    The USA electorial system is hard enough for someone from an MMP country to wrap their head around. But the nuances of party primary selection caucases baffle me (but then I guess they would have trouble getting list-ranking processes in Aotearoa).

    Clinton won 49.86% of the vote, according to the Associated Press, with Sanders on 49.57% – a margin of just 0.29 percentage points. The two appear to have split the number of delegates Iowa will send to the national Democratic convention roughly evenly, with Clinton collecting 23 and Sanders 21.

    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/hillary-clinton-wins-iowa-caucuses-bernie-sanders-young-voters

    I make that 52.3% for Clinton, 47.3% Sanders in delegates. Was that because of blind chance?

    A coin toss — that’s what it came down to in one Davenport, Iowa, precinct as a tiebreaker between Democrats Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton…

    With the first count, Schlue said the results were in favor in Sanders, “95 to something.”

    A second shift saw some people switch sides, but also brought to light that a few caucus-goers had apparently not signed in.

    With one last realignment (and everyone signed in), the numbers were counted and the 168 votes were split — 84 for Sanders, 84 for Clinton…

    The Davenport coin toss wasn’t the only one to settle between Sanders and Clinton. A similar situation took place in Ames, Iowa, as well as a precinct in Des Moines, according to The Des Moines Register.

    The paper said Clinton won all three coin tosses.

    https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/02/02/iowa-coin-tosses-decide-between-sanders-and-clinton/45CjNuPfGfRT26dzJsthOK/story.html

    Some Sanders staffers have argued Sanders definitely did win if you count raw totals and not state delegates; given the geographical layout of Iowa, that claim is likely if unproven. (More than a quarter of Sanders’ supporters come from just three counties – which awards only 12% of delegates; the caucus structure is thought to favor Clinton significantly).

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/02/iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders-can-win-hillary-clinton-beatable

    But then again; you contest within the political system you have, not that which you wish for.

    • Andre 17.1

      If you really want to do your head in, look up the Electoral College system for electing the President.

      Most states allocate their “electors” on a winner-take-all basis, a few by congressional district.

      The number of electors each state gets is the number of Representatives it has in the House plus two for its Senators. So a small state like Wyoming (pop 584,000) gets 3 electors (1 per 195,000 residents) while California (pop 38,800,000) gets 55 electors (1 per 705,000 residents). Since most small states lean Republican, this system favours them.

      There’s no law requiring electors to actually vote in the way they were elected to, although there really haven’t been recent incidents of “faithless electors”.

      It’s one of the reason why even though Gore won the popular vote by a substantial margin, we got stuck with Bush the lesser.

      • Phil 17.1.1

        Since most small states lean Republican, this system favours them

        On the other hand, most of the current ‘swing’ states with large electoral college votes (e.g. Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado) have demographics that are trending in favour of ‘minorities’ and other democratic-leaning groups, so you’re unlikely to see the Dem’s complaining about the electoral system any time soon.

      • Pasupial 17.1.2

        As I understand it, each state is entitled to at least two senators plus one congressional representative. Additional congressional representatives are added by voting population, but the amount is pretty grainy in the lower population states compared to the more populous where each increase is a smaller proportion of total vote. Also recent voter ID laws & caging lists, plus children and undocumented immigrants have no representation. This graph is a good representation:

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_%28United_States%29#/media/File:State_population_per_electoral_vote.png

        • Andre 17.1.2.1

          Yep. Nice graph.

          Washington D.C. gets the same numbers of electors as the state with the least electors, ie 3. Even though they don’t get a Representative or any Senators.

  18. aerobubble 18

    So Trump came second with Sanders. Hah.

    Seriously Crux, Trump and another candidate all got more than 20% and less than 30%

    its just Ohio people

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    Speech to the CAANZ conference - November 19, 2020 Thank you, Greg, (Greg Haddon, MC) for the welcome. I’d like to acknowledge John Cuthbertson from CAANZ, the Commissioner of Inland Revenue Naomi Ferguson, former fellow MP and former Minister of Revenue, Peter Dunne, other guest speakers and CAANZ members. I ...
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    14 hours ago
  • Expert independent advisory group appointed to strengthen the future of Māori broadcasting
    A panel of seven experts are adding their support to help shape the future of Māori broadcasting, Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson has announced today. “Today I will meet with some of the most experienced Māori broadcasters, commentators and practitioners in the field. They have practical insights on the ...
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    20 hours ago
  • Government to review housing settings
    New Zealand’s stronger-than-expected economic performance has flowed through to housing demand, so the Government will review housing settings to improve access to the market, the Finance Minister Grant Robertson announced today. “Our focus is on improving access to the housing market for first home buyers and ensuring house price growth ...
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    2 days ago
  • Crown accounts reflect Govt’s careful economic management
    The better-than-expected Crown accounts released today show the Government’s careful management of the COVID-19 health crisis was the right approach to support the economy. As expected, the Crown accounts for the year to June 2020 show the operating balance before gains and losses, or OBEGAL, was in deficit. However that ...
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    2 days ago
  • Community launch marks next step in addressing racism in education
    The launch of Te Hurihanganui in Porirua today is another important milestone in the work needed to address racism in the education system and improve outcomes for Māori learners and their whānau, Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis says. Budget 2019 included $42 million over three years to put Te Hurihanganui ...
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    2 days ago
  • Government to consider recommendations on DNA use in criminal investigations
    The Minister of Justice has received the Law Commission’s recommending changes to the law governing the way DNA is used in criminal investigations. The report, called The Use of DNA in Criminal Investigations – Te Whahamahi I te Ira Tangata I ngā Mātai Taihara, recommends new legislation to address how ...
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    2 days ago
  • Speech to Wakatū Nelson regional hui on trade
    First, I want to express my thanks to Te Taumata for this hui and for all the fantastic work you are doing for Māori in the trade space. In the short time that you’ve been operating you’ve already contributed an enormous amount to the conversation, and developed impressive networks.  I ...
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    2 days ago
  • Speech to Primary Industries Summit
    Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today about the significant contribution the food and fibres sector makes to New Zealand and how this Government is supporting that effort. I’d like to start by acknowledging our co-Chairs, Terry Copeland and Mavis Mullins, my colleague, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, ...
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    2 days ago
  • Fast track referrals will speed up recovery and boost jobs and home building
    The Government is taking action to increase jobs, speed up the economic recovery and build houses by putting three more projects through its fast track approval process. “It’s great to see that the fast-track consenting process is working. Today we have referred a mix of potential projects that, if approved, ...
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    2 days ago
  • Papakāinga provides critically needed homes in Hastings
    A papakāinga opened today by the Minister for Māori Development the Hon Willie Jackson will provide whānau with much needed affordable rental homes in Hastings. The four home papakāinga in Waiōhiki is the first project to be completed under the ‘Hastings Place Based’ initiative. This initiative is a Government, Hastings ...
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    5 days ago
  • New Zealand ready to host APEC virtually
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern took over the leadership of APEC earlier today, when she joined leaders from the 21 APEC economies virtually for the forum’s final 2020 meeting. “We look forward to hosting a fully virtual APEC 2021 next year. While this isn’t an in-person meeting, it will be one ...
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    5 days ago
  • Revival of Māori Horticulturists
    The rapid revival of Māori horticulture was unmistakeable at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy Awards, with 2020 marking the first time this iconic Māori farming event was dedicated to horticulture enterprises. Congratulating finalists at the Awards, Māori Development Minister Willie Jackson said growing large-scale māra kai is part of Māori DNA. ...
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    5 days ago
  • Emergency benefit to help temporary visa holders
    From 1 December, people on temporary work, student or visitor visas who can’t return home and or support themselves may get an Emergency Benefit from the Ministry of Social Development, Social Development and Employment Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced today. Previously, temporary visa holders in hardship because of COVID-19 have had ...
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    6 days ago
  • School sustainability projects to help boost regional economies
    Forty one schools from the Far North to Southland will receive funding for projects that will reduce schools’ emissions and save them money, Education Minister Chris Hipkins announced today. This is the second round of the Sustainability Contestable Fund, and work will begin immediately. The first round announced in April ...
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    6 days ago
  • Farmer-led projects to improve water health in Canterbury and Otago
    More than $6 million will be spent on helping farmers improve the health of rivers, wetlands, and habitat biodiversity in Canterbury and Otago, as well as improving long-term land management practices, says Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. Four farmer-led catchment group Jobs for Nature projects have between allocated between $176,000 and ...
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    6 days ago
  • Tupu Aotearoa continues expansion to Pacific communities in Nelson, Marlborough, Tasman & Northl...
    Pacific communities in Nelson, Marlborough, Tasman and Northland will benefit from the expansion of the Tupu Aotearoa programme announced today by the Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio. The programme provides sustainable employment and education pathways and will be delivered in partnership with three providers in Northland and two ...
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    6 days ago
  • New primary school and classrooms for 1,200 students in South Island
    Education Minister Chris Hipkins unveiled major school building projects across the South Island during a visit to Waimea College in Nelson today. It’s part of the Government’s latest investment of $164 million to build new classrooms and upgrade schools around the country. “Investments like this gives the construction industry certainty ...
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    6 days ago
  • Minister of Māori Development pays tribute to Rudy Taylor
      Today the Minister of Māori Development, alongside other Government Ministers and MP’s said their final farewells to Nga Puhi Leader Rudy Taylor.  “Rudy dedicated his life to the betterment of Māori, and his strong approach was always from the ground up, grassroots, sincere and unfaltering”  “Over the past few ...
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    6 days ago
  • Prime Minister to attend APEC Leaders’ Summit
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will attend the annual APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting and associated events virtually today and tomorrow. “In a world where we cannot travel due to COVID-19, continuing close collaboration with our regional partners is key to accelerating New Zealand’s economic recovery,” Jacinda Ardern said. “There is wide ...
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    6 days ago
  • Speech to Infrastructure NZ Symposium
    Tena Koutou, Tena Koutou and thank you for inviting me to speak to you today. This is a critical time for New Zealand as we respond to the damage wreaked by the global COVID-19 pandemic. It is vital that investment in our economic recovery is well thought through, and makes ...
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    6 days ago
  • Pike River 10 Year Anniversary Commemorative Service
    Tēnei te mihi ki a tātau katoa e huihui nei i tēnei rā Ki a koutou ngā whānau o te hunga kua riro i kōnei – he mihi aroha ki a koutou Ki te hapori whānui – tēnā koutou Ki ngā tāngata whenua – tēnā koutou Ki ngā mate, e ...
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    6 days ago
  • Huge investment in new and upgraded classrooms to boost construction jobs
    Around 7,500 students are set to benefit from the Government’s latest investment of $164 million to build new classrooms and upgrade schools around the country. “The election delivered a clear mandate to accelerate our economic recovery and build back better. That’s why we are prioritising construction projects in schools so more ...
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    6 days ago
  • Keeping Pike River Mine promises 10 years on
    Ten years after the Pike River Mine tragedy in which 29 men lost their lives while at work, a commemorative service at Parliament has honoured them and their legacy of ensuring all New Zealand workplaces are safe. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern attended the event, along with representatives of the Pike ...
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    7 days ago
  • Additional testing to strengthen border and increase safety of workers
    New testing measures are being put in place to increase the safety of border workers and further strengthen New Zealand’s barriers against COVID-19, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “These strengthened rules – to apply to all international airports and ports – build on the mandatory testing orders we’ve ...
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    7 days ago
  • More public housing delivered in Auckland
    The Government’s investment in public housing is delivering more warm, dry homes with today’s official opening of 82 new apartments in New Lynn by the Housing Minister Megan Woods. The Thom Street development replaces 16 houses built in the 1940s, with brand new fit-for-purpose public housing that is in high ...
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    7 days ago
  • Agreement advanced to purchase up to 5 million COVID-19 vaccines
    The Government has confirmed an in-principle agreement to purchase up to 5 million COVID-19 vaccines – enough for 5 million people – from Janssen Pharmaceutica, subject to the vaccine successfully completing clinical trials and passing regulatory approvals in New Zealand, says Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods. “This agreement ...
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    7 days ago
  • Jobs for Nature funding will leave a conservation legacy for Waikanae awa
    Ninety-two jobs will be created to help environmental restoration in the Waikanae River catchment through $8.5 million of Jobs for Nature funding, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan announced today. “The new funding will give a four-year boost to the restoration of the Waikanae awa, and is specifically focussed on restoration through ...
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    7 days ago
  • New Dunedin Hospital project progresses to next stage
    As the new Dunedin Hospital project progresses, the Government is changing the oversight group to provide more technical input, ensure continued local representation, and to make sure lessons learnt from Dunedin benefit other health infrastructure projects around the country. Concept design approval and the release of a tender for early ...
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    7 days ago
  • Jump in apprentice and trainee numbers
    The number of New Zealanders taking up apprenticeships has increased nearly 50 percent, and the number of female apprentices has more than doubled. This comes as a Government campaign to raise the profile of vocational education and training (VET) begins. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Education Minister Chris Hipkins announced ...
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    1 week ago
  • ReBuilding Nations Symposium 2020 (Infrastructure NZ Conference opening session)
    Tena koutou katoa and thank you for the opportunity to be with you today. Can I acknowledge Ngarimu Blair, Ngati Whatua, and Mayor Phil Goff for the welcome. Before I start with my substantive comments, I do want to acknowledge the hard work it has taken by everyone to ensure ...
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    1 week ago
  • New Zealand's biosecurity champions honoured
    Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor has paid tribute to the winners of the 2020 New Zealand Biosecurity Awards. “These are the people and organisations who go above and beyond to protect Aotearoa from pests and disease to ensure our unique way of life is sustained for future generations,” Damien O’Connor says. ...
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    1 week ago
  • Tourism Industry Aotearoa Conference
    speech to Tourism Industry Aotearoa annual summit Te Papa,  Wellington Introduction Nau mai, haere mai Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, Ka nui te mihi, ki a koutou. Thank you Tourism Industry Aotearoa for hosting today’s Summit. In particular, my acknowledgements to TIA Chair Gráinne Troute and Chief Executive Chris Roberts. You ...
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    1 week ago
  • Supermarkets announced as Government’s second market study
    The Government has today launched a market study to ensure New Zealanders are paying a fair price for groceries.   “Supermarkets are an integral part of our communities and economy, so it’s important to ensure that Kiwis are getting a fair deal at the checkout,” Minister of Commerce and Consumer ...
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    1 week ago
  • Masks to be worn on Auckland public transport and all domestic flights
    Masks will need to be worn on all public transport in Auckland and in and out of Auckland and on domestic flights throughout the country from this Thursday, Minister for COVID-19 Response Chris Hipkins said today. “I will be issuing an Order under the COVID-19 Response Act requiring the wearing ...
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    1 week ago
  • New Zealand signs Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
    Increase to New Zealand’s GDP by around $2 billion each year Increase opportunities for NZ exporters to access regional markets Cuts red tape and offers one set of trade rules across the Asia Pacific region New government procurement, competition policy and electronic commerce offers NZ exporters increased business opportunities Prime ...
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    1 week ago
  • Minister acknowledges students as exams begin
    Education Minister Chris Hipkins has recognised the extraordinary challenges students have faced this year, ahead of NCEA and New Zealand Scholarship exams which begin on Monday. “I want to congratulate students for their hard work during a year of unprecedented disruption, and I wish students all the best as ...
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    2 weeks ago
  • Prime Minister meets with key ASEAN and East Asia Summit partners
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today attended the ASEAN-New Zealand Commemorative Summit and discussed with Leaders a range of shared challenges facing the Indo-Pacific region, including: The ongoing management of the COVID-19 pandemic; The importance of working collectively to accelerate economic recovery; and Exploring further opportunities for partners to work more ...
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    2 weeks ago
  • Veterans Affairs Summit held in Korea
    A Ministerial Summit on Veterans’ Affairs was held in the Republic of Korea this week. Ministers with veteran responsibilities were invited from all 22 countries that had been part of the United Nations Forces during the Korean War (1950 – 1953). The Summit marked the 70th anniversary of the outbreak ...
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    2 weeks ago
  • Clear direction set for the education system, skills prioritised
    The Government has released a set of priorities for early learning through to tertiary education and lifelong learning to build a stronger, fairer education system that delivers for all New Zealanders. “The election delivered a clear mandate from New Zealanders to accelerate our plan to reduce inequalities and make more ...
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    2 weeks ago
  • A Progressive Agenda
    Speech to the Climate Change + Business Conference, November 12, 2020 Tena koutou katoa Thank you for inviting me to speak here today. It is great to see us all come together for a common cause: to redefine our future in the face of unprecedented times.  Covid-19 and climate change are ...
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    2 weeks ago