web analytics

The last gasp of oil

Written By: - Date published: 8:23 am, January 23rd, 2015 - 109 comments
Categories: capitalism, climate change, energy, global warming, peak oil, sustainability - Tags: , , ,

Currently oil supply is up and the cost of oil has halved over the last 6 months. It’s largely down to a fracking boom in America, which has boosted their production by two thirds. There are all sorts of political and economic ramifications (far too many to pursue in this post!).

Some observations: Most of the writing on peak oil did not anticipate this. It significantly delays the “end of oil”. Although consumers get to enjoy (somewhat) lower energy costs, it is of course bad news because we’re going to burn all that oil and pump all that carbon into our overheated atmosphere (not to mention the environmental costs of fracking). We’re planting our collective foot on the accelerator as we speed towards the brick wall. Brilliant.

An interesting piece in The Economist recently imagines a bright side:

Seize the day

The fall in the price of oil and gas provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fix bad energy policies

The plunging price of oil, coupled with advances in clean energy and conservation, offers politicians around the world the chance to rationalise energy policy. They can get rid of billions of dollars of distorting subsidies, especially for dirty fuels, whilst shifting taxes towards carbon use. A cheaper, greener and more reliable energy future could be within reach.

There are growing signs that low prices are here to stay: the rising chatter of megamergers in the oil industry (see article) is a sure sign that oilmen are bracing for a shake-out. Less noticed, the price of cleaner forms of energy is also falling, as our special report this week explains. And new technology is allowing better management of the consumption of energy, especially electricity. That should help cut waste and thus lower costs still further. For decades the big question about energy was whether the world could produce enough of it, in any form and at any cost. Now, suddenly, the challenge should be one of managing abundance.

The most straightforward piece of reform, pretty much everywhere, is simply to remove all the subsidies for producing or consuming fossil fuels. Last year governments around the world threw $550 billion down that rathole—on everything from holding down the price of petrol in poor countries to encouraging companies to search for oil. By one count, such handouts led to extra consumption that was responsible for 36% of global carbon emissions in 1980-2010. Falling prices provide an opportunity to rethink this nonsense.

That should be just the beginning. Politicians, for the most part, have refused to raise taxes on fossil fuels in recent years, on the grounds that making driving or heating homes more expensive would not only annoy voters but also hurt the economy. With petrol and natural gas getting cheaper by the day, that excuse has gone. Higher taxes would encourage conservation, dampen future price swings and provide a more sensible way for governments to raise money.

Environmental authors such as Bill McKibben and Tim Flannery have also made the point that we need a period of energy transition – paradoxically we need a lot of energy to build the technologies that we we will need for a low-carbon, sustainable energy future. So the current glut of oil does seem to provide this opportunity.

The wisest thing to do, in my opinion, is leave the oil in the ground. The chances of that happening are nil. So will we at least have the wisdom to use the current glut constructively, to implement a transition to more rational energy policy and to more sustainable sources of energy? Can we actually, in the long term, cut emissions? Or will we squander it all on a brief boom, oil industry profits, and business as usual. I’m not optimistic.

109 comments on “The last gasp of oil”

  1. fisiani 1

    Wooly headed thinking. There is the same volume of oil in the ground as there always has been. Using old technology it could have been scarce. Using fracking there is an abundance. I suspect there is easily enough oil in reserve to last another 100 years or more. It will run out one day but not in our lifetimes. Hardly the “last gasp of oil” -that should have been tagged with ‘humour’.

    • vto 1.1

      how would you know? what a waste of space

      • Gosman 1.1.1

        He may well be wrong. However his views seem no difference in principle to some here who were suggesting the 2015 would be the beginning of the end for civilisation as a result of Peak oil and that we would never see prces below 100 USD be barrel ever again in our lifetimes.

    • Colonial Rawshark 1.2

      As the collapse in fracking rig numbers in the USA shows, there will be plenty of fracking oil left under the ground, which no one will be able to extract economically.

      • ghostwhowalksnz 1.2.1

        Fracking- which was originally developed by US government money for increasing gas supplies- doesnt create long term oil reserves. Once a recoverable oil reserve was seen at about 15 -20 years. With fracking its between 5 and 10 as the costs to keep production flowing are so much higher.

        • Colonial Rawshark 1.2.1.1

          As I understand it a fracking well hits peaks flows within the first 6m and then it is all gone within 3-4 years.

          In a sign of desperation, some operators were talking early last year about going back to re-frack wells that they had already fracked as they claimed that improved technology would allow them to extract even more oil…

    • Sabine 1.3

      do you have children? Grand Children? Anyone in your Family who is younger than ‘you’?
      Because you see, some of us are not arguing so much for “us” or the “in our lifetime’ but for the younger generation that is just starting ‘their lifetime’.

      Again, the thing that gets me with the crowd that wants to believe that everything is still there in abundance in ‘their lifetime’ obviously does not give a flying squirrel for their offspring, or any of the other young ones that will run this world when we are at the end of ‘our lifetime’.

      Your I can’t give a shit attitude is self defeating Fisiani. and lacking any sense of humor.

    • Murray Rawshark 1.4

      Yeah, use fracking so we run out of potable water and hydrocarbons at the same time. I suppose that you wouldn’t find life worth living if you couldn’t clean your boss’s car every day anyway.

      • AmaKiwi 1.4.1

        + 1

        You’re right. The poisoning of ground water supplies from fracking is horrific. That’s why some regions (such as NY State) are banning fracking completely.

  2. Colonial Rawshark 2

    A brilliant and timely post. I agree with all the points you make Anthony, except for one: the “collapse” in oil prices (oil today is till twice as expensive as oil in the 1990’s) doesn’t delay the end of oil at all, what is happening now is that we are living through the end of oil.

    Just like a man who is drowning and being pulled under the waves gets one brief clean gasp of air into his lungs before being dragged under again: no one would claim that the man has suddenly gained a reprieve from drowning.

    Points to note:

    1) Usually a drop in oil price primes a boost in economic activity. Not this time – the collapse in non-conventional oil activity eg. tar sands and shale oil operations suspending work means the North American economy is taking a huge hit.

    2) The financialisation of oil as a commodity has increased the whipsawing effect on oil prices – and that is going to break the real economy.

    3) Our leaders will not use this drop in oil prices to take subsidies away from oil producers who are currently being killed by this lower market price. Only large conventional producers are making a profit at $50/bb and even then the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia are not making enough profit to cover their country’s budgets.

    4) NZ has 15 years left to get a low carbon transport, communications and power grid infrastructure in place. And to transition away from global markets provided products and jobs.

    5) Meanwhile, doing all of this looks expensive and unnecessary again, when compared to cheap oil, lessening politicians’ motivation to push on with what needs to be done.

    Dmitry Orlov has made some good observations:

    The fix for low oil prices is… low oil prices. Past some point high-priced producers will naturally stop producing, the excess inventory will get burned up, and the price will recover. Not only will it recover, but it will probably spike, because a country littered with the corpses of bankrupt oil companies is not one that is likely to jump right back into producing lots of oil while, on the other hand, beyond a few uses of fossil fuels that are discretionary, demand is quite inelastic. And an oil price spike will cause another round of demand destruction, because the consumers, devastated by the bankruptcies and the job losses from the collapse of the oil patch, will soon be bankrupted by the higher price. And that will cause the price of oil to collapse again.

    And so on until the last industrialist dies. His cause of death will be listed as “whiplash”: the “shaken industrialist syndrome,”

    http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.nz/2015/01/whiplash.html

    • greywarshark 2.1

      Colonial Rawshark
      Thanks for that good full comment. Helpful.

    • nadis 2.2

      Don’t disagree with much of your comment, but you’re way off on point 1. Anticipated boost to the US economy is around 1%. There is absolutely no way that anyone can coherently argue that low oil prices are bad for the broad US economy. Theres a graphic here, this is consistent with multiple sources of research I’ve seen.

      http://fortune.com/2015/01/07/oil-winners-losers/

      In the US you’ve got around 8 states who are net losers (in a state revenue sense) including Texas, North Dakota, Alaska etc) everyone else is net better off.

      Another important way to think about oil is the budgetary breakeven for countries which is significantly higher than the production cost break even. Deutsche Bank research summarised here:

      http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29643612

      A lot of countries need >$100 per bbl to breakeven.

      And US employment in the Oil and Gas industry is very low – just 216,100 employees as of Dec 2014, out of a total non-farm payrolls of 140.35mm. Thats barely 0.15% of US non-farm jobs. So even if employment in Oil and Gas halved (which it won’t) – it would barely show up in the stats.

      In terms of production from marginal oil sources in the US (i.e., fracking) most production is profitable (just) at around $50 per bbl. But (as you point out) there is a serious impact on future production as the industry in the US (which is mostly smaller companies) is not re-investing in future production. So there will likely be a run off in US supply over the next 2-3 years – down from 9mm bbl per day to closer to 7mm bbl per day. The current overhang in the market ioos somewhere around 2 to 3 mm bbl per day. Obviously Saudi could solve that with one phone call but I don’t see that happening until there is a production shakeout in the US. That won’t be apparent for minimum 6 months if not 1 year.

      • Colonial Rawshark 2.2.1

        Don’t disagree with much of your comment, but you’re way off on point 1. Anticipated boost to the US economy is around 1%.

        OK I’m open minded on this and am happy to watch this play out over the next 6-12 months to see what the actual effect on US economic numbers are.

      • tracey 2.2.2

        CV has posted a fascinating article further down the thread in a discussion about king abdullah which is worth a read to see all the possible different factors in play regarding oil prices shale gas and other stuff.

      • Draco T Bastard 2.2.3

        Thats barely 0.15% of US non-farm jobs.

        And yet National keep telling us that drilling for oil will create lots and lots of jobs.

      • Lanthanide 2.2.4

        Unfortunately I can’t find the statement, but it was somewhere on fivethirtyeight.com.

        Employment in the US has grown past 2007 levels now (start of the GFC), but the statement was that it has only increased in the shale-gas/oil states; in all other states employment is still below or just meeting the 2007 level.

        That suggests that although there are only a small number of jobs directly involved in gas/oil extraction, there is significant downstream and activity and employment as a result of that extraction. There was an article in the Economist not to long ago about on-shoring certain types of manufacturing back to the US away from China, due to very cheap energy.

        • Colonial Rawshark 2.2.4.1

          Oil employment is far better paid than they typical $7/hr McJobs/WalJobs i.e. they enable something of a middle class with discretionary spending power to reform. Also when you think of a shale oil operation as a drilling operation which runs in parallel to a Wall St investor/property investment office you can see where the real money lay.

  3. Ad 3

    It’s a hard challenge for the traditional left because the impending crisis of energy that was supposed to spur political and social transition has disappeared over the horizon.

    Movements such as the Greens however have built up a constituency for their messaging that now suffuses most of ordinary life. The very long game has become the successful game.

    • Colonial Rawshark 3.1

      You don’t reach the calm at the eye of the storm and signal the all clear.

      The Greens are blind as everyone else. More so because they are promising the middle class and the upper class that their privileged lifestyles can continue without any real change.

      So all I hear you saying is that the Greens will do better electorally in the short term on the issue of energy depletion because they are offering the comfortable classes a higher dose of hopium.

      • Ad 3.1.1

        “CrIsisaholics Anonymous” struggle for public change relevance.

        NZGreens are the strongest in the world.
        Politically, this is as good as Greens get. Other than communitarian efforts, that’s our baseline.

        • Colonial Rawshark 3.1.1.1

          “CrIsisaholics Anonymous” struggle for public change relevance.

          Well, this is very true.

          Which is why politicians and mainstream political parties will keep telling the electorate what they want to hear.

          NZGreens are the strongest in the world.
          Politically, this is as good as Greens get.

          I have no doubt that this is true, but it’s approximately just 15%-20% of what we need at this stage.

        • tracey 3.1.1.2

          are they? i am not saying you are wrong but I thought they were pretty strong in germany and I (know it is only a poll) saw the UK greens are polling ahead of Lib Dems and just behind UKIP in UK?

          • adam 3.1.1.2.1

            Polls in First past the post are effectively pointless Tracey. All we know for sure about First past the post, is male idiots always win. Remember social credit, they did bloody well in the polls too. Polls are just propaganda tools. If I supported NZ First, I’d push for a 26 weeks ban before an election.

            • tracey 3.1.1.2.1.1

              so what is the definition of “strongest” in the context used by Ad and to which I was responding

              greens have 10% of seats in euro parliament. 64 seats in bundestag

              • adam

                Germany then. In realpolitik. If only we could convince the communists party in China to be green. At least we know, most of it will be made in post-inclosed China.

              • Ad

                Aren’t they over 10% of parliament here?

                Sorry if I sound pessimistic, but i struggle to believe much of what is wrong with the world can now be reversed.
                – Oil multinationals
                – Climate change
                – Agglomeration of capital to the 1% (or .001%)
                – Environmental degradation
                – Etc

                I believe that neither democracy, the idea of policy, nor the state are sufficiently strong now to challenge these trends.
                I also believe the best we can do is do our best with our own communities and families.

    • Sabine 3.2

      and still the Greens are so commercialized, so standardized, so utterly corporate that really they are no solution either.
      They remind me of hard core Vegans that refuse to eat food because they can afford to buy soy based products (that in my eyes are equally damaging to the planet – just go have a look and read up on how soy milk is produced and go have another soy latte right after that) to replace their meats, but were they to experience sever hunger I am sure they will pretty much eat what given – the might cry a hot tear over the fact that they ate something containing butter or eggs, but they will rationalize it away with survival.

      Nope, as long as it is profitable to ignore global warming, or global weather weirding, or long droughts, or fast storms and devastating floods nothing will be done. And our current regime is the standard bearer for this attitude.

      Still hoping that the left parties will come together for the future….but not holding my breath.

  4. esoteric pineapples 4

    Interesting article from Nexus Magazine on this subject – The Looming Shale Gas Fracking Disaster By F. William Engdahl. The short-lived US shale gas boom is about to go bust, a victim of a hyped confidence bubble and inflated estimates of recoverable reserves

    https://www.nexusmagazine.com/articles/cat_view/28-environment-spirituality

  5. “Most of the writing on peak oil did not anticipate this.”

    JMG did and has been writing very consistently about this ‘bubble’ for years http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.co.nz/

    What to do? Not much really – they will pretend everything is all okay, they will merrily continue their silly practices and we will all suffer the consequences uneveningly.

    What to do?

    What’s more, there’s no shortage of examples in relatively recent history to guide the sort of crisis management I have in mind. The tsunami of discontinuities that’s rolling toward us out of the deep waters of the future may be larger than the waves that hit the Western world with the coming of the First World War in 1914, the Great Depression in 1929, or the Second World War in 1939, but from the perspective of the individual, the difference isn’t as vast as it might seem. In fact, I’d encourage my readers to visit their local public libraries and pick up books about the lived experience of those earlier traumas. I’d also encourage those with elderly relatives who still remember the Second World War to sit down with them over a couple of cups of whatever beverage seems appropriate, and ask about what it was like on a day-by-day basis to watch their ordinary peacetime world unravel into chaos.

    http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.co.nz/2015/01/the-mariners-rule.html

    understanding what is happening and what will happen is important, learning from the past and how others have dealt with major life-changing world events is another important aspect, and understanding ourselves – who we are, what we believe in and what is important to us is also there – the future is here.

    • Kiwiri - Raided of the Last Shark 5.1

      what it was like on a day-by-day basis to watch their ordinary peacetime world unravel into chaos

      ….. and so we shall look to our own households and try to manage on a day-to-day basis, focusing our attention and energies to our okionomia, building or growing from our real economy at a community level.

    • disturbed 5.2

      1000% Marty mars, true to the point of clarity.

    • Colonial Rawshark 5.3

      +1

      NZ is about 20 years too late to conduct a proper economic and cultural transition off fossil fuels. And things like the TPPA are going to make us even more reliant on global supply chains which are going to start failing to deliver for NZ citizens on a regular basis – guaranteed.

      What we have left open to us are basically adhoc crisis measures to try and lay down basic physical and social infrastructure over the next 15 years, to operate in a low carbon economy.

      Personally I think Wellington will be focussing on a game of ‘pretend and extend’ through most of those years.

  6. disturbed 6

    Greywarshark,

    Please don’t take the bait of Super NatZ paid troll Gosman to pollute our thinking.

    Ignore them all,

    I suggested two days ago ignore him/her and their ilk including Hooten, as we don’t get any positive input from them and they are damaging our forum discussion.

    As for these Fracking clowns, they are simply morally bankrupt individuals.

    Also the oil companies and the automotive industry are most likely behind driving this corrupt plan to pollute the earth while destroying our entire underground water supply and air.

    Wilful damage is what they should be charged with as the activities are harming all of us and they should be held responsible for their deliberate intent to injure or kill us all.

    • greywarshark 6.1

      @ disturbed
      I do agree with you about DNFTT. However sometimes the restraint slips, and they get a verbal slap on their bottoms. It’s very satisfying and you would notice I didn’t enter into any discussion with Gos because it’s a waste of time. He can’t reason and may never have learned to do that in his life.

      For most of the literate RWs that write here they are writing from their version of concrete bunkers, possibly like someone I know, sitting in a nice house, with nice ‘appointments’, looking out on a nice view, in a nice neighourhood. So much niceness should not be challenged in any way. Nirvana has been reached, they are all called Jack, as in “This is the house that Jack built’ (they are all self-made men, except if they are women, perhaps 10%).

      I understand that, and so I resent them getting too much oxygen. They maintain their sense of superiority by writing scathing comments, striking superior postures about ideas different to their own, and denigrating those who point out unfairness as envious layabouts and hopeless failures. And this of course is mainly untrue, there may be 10-20% of such people about. They will always exaggerate the negative, and we need to accentuate the positive. And remember to smile sometimes and perhaps listen to some music.

      Or Aretha Franklin belts it out at

      edited

  7. Tarquin 7

    I don’t think we will ever run out of oil, we’ll just stop using it. As soon as someone invents a system of storing electricity our problems will be solved. Hopefully it’s not too far away.

    • weka 7.1

      Why do you think that will solve our problems, and what makes you hope it’s not too far away?

      • Tarquin 7.1.1

        Basically, it’s all about efficiency. We live in the oil age just as people lived in the steam age. Oil trumped steam and I believe electricity will trump oil. This is a good thing because electricity can be produced relatively cheaply from renewable recourses. The only problem is transmission and storage. Up to a third of electricity is lost in the lines, so the best thing we can do is generate as close as we can to the end user. I’m a fan of tidal generators and also think we shouldn’t write off small nuclear plants. As for a better battery, a lot of money is being spent trying to solve this one. When someone solves this problem oil will be consigned to the scrap heap, which can only be good for everyone.

        • Colonial Rawshark 7.1.1.1

          The oil and steam age that you mention are both the same age: industrial fossil fuel use.

          For NZ there are two main problems with fossil fuel depletion
          1) Our transport systems are almost entirely reliant on fossil fuels.
          2) We rely on a globalised supply chain to provide us with the very basics of day to day living. That globalised supply chain is entirely reliant on fossil fuels.

          Hopeful talk about a renewable grid is important, but does nothing to resolve those two critical issues for NZ.

          I’m a fan of tidal generators and also think we shouldn’t write off small nuclear plants.

          Your comment about small nuclear plants shows that you haven’t thought this through. It is impossible to build and fuel a nuclear plant without massive amounts of oil.

        • tracey 7.1.1.2

          hmm electricity and electric cars have been around a while… oil is the preferred option because of the hold and money the OIL companies have.

        • weka 7.1.1.3

          “Basically, it’s all about efficiency”

          Are you familier with the Jeavon’s paradox? how would you get around that?

          We already have storage via hydro. Admittedly it’s not that effecient, but even if it were, we would still use up out capacity and then want more. The problem isn’t lack of technology, it’s modern human’s inability to live within their means.

        • Lanthanide 7.1.1.4

          A realistic and mathematical approach to creating a country-sized battery for storing electricity: http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/08/nation-sized-battery/#more-126

  8. Colonial Rawshark 8

    Kansas state officials admit close correlation between fracking and earthquake events

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-21/kansas-officials-admit-strong-correlation-between-quakes-fracking

  9. greywarshark 9

    Of course – only one thing matters…

    State Rep. Tom Sloan, a Lawrence Republican who has served on several Federal Energy Regulatory Commission committees and task forces, said a moratorium would hurt the economy.
    “How do you draw the line?” he asked.
    “If you don’t allow fracking, you will shut down the entire industry,” he said.

    When legal slavery was being condemned, the business people said the same thing.

    • Colonial Rawshark 9.1

      NB slavery continues in the USA in the form of the prison industrial complex from which private prison corporations make millions a month.

  10. tracey 10

    speaking of last gasps

    king abdullah has died. the USA will be having talks with the saudis to have an election and move toward democracy…

    too late..

    79 year old brother is taking over.

  11. Corokia 11

    This would be a good time to introduce the ‘fee and dividend’ scheme as put forward by James Hansen. A price is put on carbon and fossil fuels are taxed at the mine, drill site or port of entry. The money raised goes directly to citizens on a per capita basis. That would add a bit to the price of petrol (less noticeable right now that the oil price is down), but everyone gets dividend money deposited in their bank accounts.

    • Colonial Rawshark 11.1

      Great moving around of electronic currency units, but it doesn’t help us transition off fossil fuels.

  12. Jay 12

    If we stopped using petroleum based products our lives as we know it would end. Isn’t it hypocritical to criticise oil production when the the pen you write with, the keyboard you are typing on, and the clothes you’re wearing were all made using petroleum?

    The end of oil has been predicted for decades. Now that it seems that oil is endless, we criticise methods of extraction, again using our petroleum keyboards, or driving our diesel powered boats out to protest sites.

    If and when oil does run out I guess we’ll adapt, in the meantime I’m not in any hurry to go back to living in the industrial age and dying at forty, if I’m lucky that is.

    • McFlock 12.1

      Anyone who talks about “endless” oil is obviously unfamiliar with the concept that three-dimensional spaces have a finite volume.

      The funny thing is that we’ll probably end up mining landfills or cleaning up the Pacific vortex to get hydrocarbons for plastics. Energy will probably be okay, too, although that depends on emerging technologies achieving near-enough-parity to hydrocarbons as an energy source, in costs and practicality.

      The problem that is looming massively with no real hail mary pass in sight is climate change (including ocean acidification). Longer term fuckage, and significantly more extreme.

      • weka 12.1.1

        yes, and Jay, the same 3 dimensional space world has physical connections and consequence. This means that the more oil we burn now, the worse CC will be and the more likely we will end up losing the gains from FF eg longer life expectancy.

        The sooner we transition off carbon, the more likely we will keep some of our wellbeing and standard of living.

      • Colonial Rawshark 12.1.2

        The funny thing is that we’ll probably end up mining landfills or cleaning up the Pacific vortex to get hydrocarbons for plastics (1). Energy will probably be okay, too, although that depends on emerging technologies achieving near-enough-parity to hydrocarbons as an energy source, in costs and practicality (2).

        1) There won’t be the energy to do that to replace more than a tiny fraction of our current usage.
        2) The world consumes 4.4 billion MWh of energy per month in oil. Assuming 80% is waste heat or double counting, that leaves a world shortfall of 0.9 billion MWh per month.
        3) In the short term, humanity will try and make up that short fall by burning more coal and natural gas. Those will run out circa 2060.
        4) The world uses 300 million metric tonnes equivalent of oil per month, of coal. That’s 3.5 billion MWh per month. Let’s say half of that is used for energy: 1.75 billion MWh per month.
        5) We assume that the same again is burnt in natural gas.

        Therefore between oil, coal and natural gas, the world uses 4.4 billion MWh per month. That’s the kind of power which would require 23,800 Benmore dams to supply. The oil component of that alone is 4,900 Benmore dams.

        So IMO energy will probably NOT “be okay”. No “emerging technology” Deus ex machina (what are you thinking of here? Thorium? Fusion? Dilithium? Tylium?) is going to cover that.

        And that’s excluding the energy investment that we would have to make converting fossil fuel based infrastructure to electricity based infrastructure.

        • McFlock 12.1.2.1

          lol

          I suspect the shortfall will be largely made up of existing tech alternatives that have been improved and implemented as fossil fuels commercially phase themselves out. This includes previous technologies that fossil fuels surpassed, such as wood-fueled trucks. A variation on that theme would be cng production from wood (or algae) in centralised production facilities.

          And rather than building more coal stations, we build hydro, wind or solar farms.

          Then there’s crossover uses – e.g. effective batteries (just coming out of their nascent stage) would simply use the pre-existing electricity infrastructure.

          Then, yes, we get into the potential products of blue-skies research, such as hot fusion, thorium, cold fusion, or megawatt plants that utilise the energy generated by teenage masturbation.

          If history is anything to go by, the longer shot is to assume that we will lose a substantial energy source and not develop any reasonable substitute. Indeed, we tend to fail to develop new and more efficient energy sources until the old one is about to be lost.

          • Colonial Rawshark 12.1.2.1.1

            Fuck mate, we’re out of time for that pollyannish shit, the prime energy source for our civilisation will be largely gone in less than one generation, more coal will be burnt in 2015 than in 2014, and you ain’t got shit apart from wood burners as a back up plan.

            23,800 Benmore dams worth of wood burners and wind turbines, you go do the math.

            • McFlock 12.1.2.1.1.1

              That seems to be a somewhat less-than-nuanced interpretation of what I wrote, but whatever.

              Hell, apparently most of us will be dead from ebola by 2016 anyway, so that might lower energy demand.

              If you’re really lucky, you might get to see even half of the cataclysms you predict come true. I doubt it, though.

              • Colonial Rawshark

                You always pride yourself on being the scientific one.

                So do the math, look at the physical facts, assess how many exojoules of fossil fuels the world uses a year and what happens when the majority of that becomes unavailable; don’t waste your time on fanciful dreams of a techno Deus ex machina arriving ‘just in time’.

                That shit only happens in TV shows and Hollywood movies.

                • Lanthanide

                  If you Google “do the math” you’ll find a website that does the math for you. He considers all the major forms of alternative energy sources available – wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, biofuels and in particular geo thermal and finds all of them grossly inadequate to replace oil. The best to hope for is a mixed bag that can cover some of the bases. Incidentally coal and gas are the best replacements.

                  Just found the summary page, which has a brief description and linkto a detailed article on each power source
                  http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2012/02/the-alternative-energy-matrix/#comments

                  • McFlock

                    Interesting as a situation/progress report, but the thing is that as oil gets more expensive, greater investent in developing alternatives becomes more feasible. And out of all the options, we only need breakthroughs in one or two to lessen the impact of the oil crunch: a pretty achievable strike-rate, if the last couple of hundred years are anything to go by.

                  • Draco T Bastard

                    Can Solar Power the World?

                    Short answer: Yes.

                    We have to look at what we can do and not at what we’d like to do. That’s basic economics.

                • McFlock

                  Indeed.

                  Technological advances only TV and movies. The end is nigh, pull the blanket over one’s head, for we are all doomed. /sarc

              • Colonial Rawshark

                By the way, 530 Three Gorges power schemes should cover the eventual shortfall in fossil fuels. (Of course, there is no way to build such power schemes without massive use of fossil fuels, and if they aren’t available, they cannot be built).

    • Colonial Rawshark 12.2

      Jay – Can’t a drug addict criticise the failure of the war against drugs?

      Can’t someone who owns a property criticise how home prices in NZ are becoming unaffordable?

      Can’t someone who drives a car criticise how reliance on even more motorways is a losing strategy?

      Your line of “thinking” seems quite soft in the head. As if you don’t know how to think independently at all.

      If we stopped using petroleum based products our lives as we know it would end.

      The problem is not that we are leaving petroleum. It is that it is leaving us.

      Except in your dream world of course.

    • Ad 12.3

      We should criticize the use of oil because it is damaging. We should criticize everything damaging.

      That a long term contest is futile does not in any way remove our responsibility to do our very best to decrease harm. It’s being truly human.

      As the Eagle comes in, raise your finger.

  13. greywarshark 13

    Jay at 12 (I haven’t got reply buttons at present)
    If we stopped using petroleum based products our lives as we know it would end.

    This is absolutely true. You are right. That’s what we keep trying to point out, and it will happen. So think on that. I find it hard to get my head around that for sure. We can spend the time from now till then thinking of how we can handle the change and find alternatives to the things we now take for granted, and that we wll need into the future.

  14. gnomic 14

    Er, the basic premise of this post, ie that oil prices have fallen because of fracking in the US is rather dubious surely? In fact I’m pretty sure it’s wrong.

    Definitely want to see the web links supporting this theory. I rather suspected the collapse of the oil price was due to geopolitical plotting by dark forces of the deep state. Just making life hard for Russia and Iran would provide a sufficient motive.

    Last I heard the Economist was the pulpit of neoliberal economics. And the Saudi regime dominates OPEC.

    However I fear the poster is correct in saying there is little chance that humanity will manage to limit its insensate demand to consume more and more energy until the rubber band finally breaks. Greed and stupidity rool OK?

  15. Agent orange 15

    Wolf, wolf, wolf! In 1978 we were told there would be no more oil by the year 2000. Carless days were introduced, the speed limit was reduced to 90kph, motor racing was off, even talk of banning horse racing, yes horse racing, as there would be hundreds of motorists diving to the races wasting precious fuel, we believed the doomsayers. 37 years later some are still crying wolf. However some rich capitalist pig or money hungry corporate will spend billions and find a way to harness another form of energy, be it wind, tidal, solar or whatever and we will be saved! I could say more….

    • Colonial Rawshark 15.1

      All the easy cheap to exploit oil is gone. In the late 1800s you could give a few guys shovels, pay them enough for food for the day, and they would strike oil.

      Now we need hundred million dollar exploration ships. We have to extract oil from a mile under the sea, out of solid shale rock, or try and melt tarseal down for it.

      This is the last gasp of oil.

      And because every dollar of our modern economy is predicated on oil, when it begins to peter out so will the modern economy. We are already living through that now.

      Wolf, wolf, wolf! In 1978 we were told there would be no more oil by the year 2000.

      This is a lie. You started your comment off with a lie. I just thought I would make that clear to readers here.

    • greywarshark 15.2

      @ Agent orange
      You bring up some interesting factoids which you think make some useful point. You could say more apparently but you wouldn’t be making a better point.

      Yes some person or corporate behemoth will harness another form of energy. You are counting on this so you don’t have to do anything personally just write sarcastic comments. You want to continue as a bum-thinker who wants to float along on other people’s efforts and achievements to guard us all against wipeout.
      edited

    • Murray Rawshark 15.3

      “However some rich capitalist pig or money hungry corporate will spend billions and find a way to harness another form of energy, be it wind, tidal, solar or whatever and we will be saved! I could say more….”

      Nah mate. Some underpaid woman in a university will invent something with her team, that builds on work funded over years by the taxpayer. Then your guys will come along and monopolise it. You could say more, but you’ve made enough of a fool of yourself already. Please don’t.

  16. It is all irrelevant now

    Guy McPherson with Edge of Extinction, Episode 1
    3,726
    Published on Jan 2, 2015

    This premiere episode of Edge of Extinction describes the range of time during which habitat for humans will persist on Earth. Details include nuclear Armageddon, collapse of industrial civilization, a 50-gigaton release of methane from the Arctic, and abrupt warming of Earth’s global-average climate.
    ———————————————————————————
    All you are doing is shuffling deck chairs – WAF

  17. When you add up all the GHGs out there it is looking like the planet is approaching, if not past 1,000 ppm CO2/CO2e.
    For the past 800,000 years the planet has averaged about 400ppm CO2/CO2e.
    If nothing else Al Gore is going to need a higher scissor lift.
    It is very much all over Rover )
    And the collapse in oil precises has another ‘issue’ once an oil project becomes unprofitable to run, it also becomes unprofitable to clean up or maintain, something like 30% of fracking wells fail – leaching even more CH4 into the environment.
    I guess that is the same story for the nuclear power industry, once the fictitious money system goes tits up, who is going to maintain the power plants?
    The Zaporizhia nuclear plant in Ukraine is having problems, but no one is talking about it. They are trying to put USA made bits into a Russian reactor, kind of a Chernobyl meets Fukushima scenario.
    The ‘sub prime’ junk bonds that are the tar sands and fracking industry’s financial backing are collapsing 401K/Kiwi Saver anyone?
    Maybe ‘they’ can bluff their way through until we are all choking to death.
    If the newborns want to see their 2nd birthday we better hope the John Keys of this planet can keep the BS going, just that little bit more.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • New Zealand Gives up on Trying to Save Daylight
    New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern addressed the nation today about the decline in daylight New Zealand has been experiencing over the previous few months. She said “As many of you will notice, our attempts to stem the dwindling of the daylight over the last few months have been completely ...
    Can of wormsBy Can of Worms, Opened
    6 hours ago
  • A bulletin from Greece
    Redline received this article from the KOE a Marxist party in Greece Our friends in the KOE describe here the mounting crisis in Greece and tensions on the Turkish border. As desperate people flee from their homelands which have been ruined after decades of imperialist wars and interventions the people ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    8 hours ago
  • And God spake all these words, saying
    As the first week of Level Four lockdown unfolded, mounting questions grew as to just what was (and was not) allowed under its “rules”. Partly these were driven by some apparently contradictory messages from different authority figures and explanations carried in the media. Partly they reflected a somewhat sketchy legal basis ...
    PunditBy Andrew Geddis
    11 hours ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 9
    . . April 3: Day 9 of living in lock-down… Another late-start to my work day. Everything is temporarily upended as clients are shuffled around so we can minimise our “bubble” by reducing the number of people we help. One of my colleagues has been removed from his clients; his ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    14 hours ago
  • Death to our lockdown enemies!
    We must root out the traitors among us! ...
    Imperator FishBy Scott Yorke
    1 day ago
  • Climate Change: The benefits of electrification
    In order to meet our 2050 carbon target and do our bit to avoid making the Earth uninhabitable, New Zealand needs to decarbonise our economy, replacing fossil fuels with electricity in the energy, industrial and transport sectors. The good news is that it will mean cheaper power for all of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 8 (sanitised version)
    For those folk who find my other Lock-Down Diary versions too “negative” or otherwise unpalatable… Here’s a photo of a pretty flower, .   . Better? Tomorrow’s Sanitised Version: a cute animal video. . . . =fs= ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    2 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 8
    . . April 2: Day eight of living in lock-down… Today, my work day starts late. Our rosters and clients have been dramatically changed, lessening (theoretically) the number of people in our work “bubble”.  If just one of us catches covid19 the impact could be considerable as Grey Base Hospital ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    2 days ago
  • A note on apartments and bubbles
    As Aotearoa enters week two of lockdown, it’s clear we’re all still working out what our “bubbles” look like and how to stay in them to stop the spread of Covid-19. New to the government’s Covid-19 website is some good guidance for people living in apartment blocks. Recent decades have ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    2 days ago
  • Getting in futures shape 
    “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Lenin Don’t we all know that feeling now.

    Prospect Magazine alerted me to this particularly apt quote. It is a much more evocative quote than Hemingway’s “gradually then suddenly” which is also doing ...

    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    2 days ago
  • Maybe axing Clark would be unfair. But what about any of this is fair?
    Yesterday was the day the consequences of the lockdown suddenly got very real for many. Firms have been closing and laying people off since the outset of the quarantine but this has mostly been happening out of the public eye. The mass closure of a number of iconic New Zealand ...
    PunditBy Liam Hehir
    2 days ago
  • Might a ‘Coasean’ social contract mitigate overall societal harm from COVID-19?
    Brian Williamson1, Prof Nick Wilson2 (1Economic consultant, UK; 2University of Otago Wellington) In this blog, we outline how a win-win social contract could be forged to address the major dimensions of response to the COVID-19 pandemic when using a mitigation strategy: the particular need to protect older people from high ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    2 days ago
  • Returning To “Normalcy”.
    Resuming Normal Service: The Republican Party's nominee for in 1920, Warren Harding, promised the American people: “not heroics, but healing; not nostrums, but normalcy; not revolution, but restoration”. If she wishes to remain our prime minister, then Jacinda Ardern will offer New Zealanders the same.HOW EDUCATED AMERICA snickered when the ...
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand’s Government Must Save New Zealand’s Media.
    No Free Society Without A Free And Functioning News Media: If we are to surrender our civil rights to the broader cause of defeating Covid-19, then foreign corporations must, likewise, surrender their right to inflict immense economic and cultural harm on New Zealanders simply because it improves their bottom line.I’M ...
    2 days ago
  • Corona fevers and the madness of models
    by Daphna Whitmore A third of the world is under lockdown and a clear assessment of this measure to curb the spread of COVID-19 is urgently needed.  With any high-stakes decisions it has to be asked what are we dealing with here? Are the measures warranted? Will they achieve their ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • Lockdown day 8
    I haven’t done a huge amount in the last few days. I’m reading The Poppy War and I’ve sort of poked at a couple of games – I started SOMA but I’m a wimp and I quit while in the first room after the brain scan. I might try it ...
    The little pakehaBy chrismiller
    2 days ago
  • Backstage and Theatre
    The swan politicians may be gliding on the water, occasionally snapping at one another. Meanwhile, as the Covid19 crisis illustrates, the officials are desperately paddling below providing the real locomotion. One of the most fatuous recent grandstanding comments (of about a week ago), adding to the public’s anxieties, was ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    2 days ago
  • Legal Beagle: Waiver, the singular Crown and the conduct of Crown legal business
    Much has been written about the importance of discretion in an emergency situation, and the concerns raised by the potential for it to be exercised arbitrarily. Given the quality of the discussion, there seemed little point in adding to it at any length. In particular, I point to the evidence ...
    2 days ago
  • Highlights from Bauer Media’s science-related reporting
    Today has felt surreal. I was all set to touch base online with my science communication students when a colleague shared the news that Bauer Media would be shutting down its publications immediately. The first link I saw implied it was Woman’s Weekly affected, and even that shocked me. But ...
    SciBlogsBy Sarah-Jane O'Connor
    2 days ago
  • Outsiders.
    Bogeymen, Real And Imagined: Is the number of psychopathic and sociopathic individuals in any given society truly as vanishingly small as we like to tell ourselves? Isn’t it more likely that the mass-shooters and serial-killers filling the headlines represent only the tip of a much, much larger iceberg of frightfulness? ...
    3 days ago
  • We have a right to know the rules we are expected to obey
    Outgoing Police Commissioner Mike Bush appeared before the Epidemic Response Committee today, who asked him for the rules police are using to enforce the lockdown. He refused:Police Commissioner Mike Bush has admitted the advice given to Kiwis about what they're able to do during the lockdown hasn't been clear enough. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 7 (sanitised version)
    For those folk who find my other Lock-Down Diary versions too “negative” or otherwise unpalatable… Here’s a photo of my cat, . . Better? Tomorrow’s Sanitised Version: a pretty flower. . . . =fs= ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    3 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 7
    . . April 1: Day seven of living in lock-down… This morning I had a brief chat with one of my neighbours, “D” (social distance between us, a good three or four metres). I learned he had resigned from his previous job and had been hired by another company – ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    3 days ago
  • RIP The Listener, New Zealand’s pioneering voice
    Funnily enough, my thought as I start this post is whether it will be well written enough. Or should that be well enough written? Because so much of what I know about good writing came from my two stints at The Listener, which this morning was shut down due to ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    3 days ago
  • OK, Britney: stop sniping at National for doing its job
    With normal democratic procedures in abeyance, there were two ways to go. First, it was open for the government to dissolve itself and invite the National Party to join a ministry of national salvation. That would have lessened the democratic deficit of the times by having a team of rivals without ...
    PunditBy Liam Hehir
    3 days ago
  • Helpful tips for parents during lockdown
    Dr Kirsty Ross Children and young people can respond differently in times of distress. This also varies by age and developmental stage, with younger children having more magical and imaginative thinking, and older children having more awareness and knowledge of the issues our communities are facing (which brings up ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    3 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #13, 2020
    3 days ago
  • Hungary is now a dictatorship
    Hungary has been a virtual dictatorship for a decade now, as Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has gradually eroded its democracy. But now, its official, with the passage of an indefinite emergency law allowing rule by decree:Hungary’s parliament has passed a new set of coronavirus measures that includes jail terms for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • A new Ministry of Works
    While the economy is on pause under lockdown, the government is beginning to plan how to cope with the post-lockdown, post-tourism, post-export education world we will eventually find ourselves in. They're planning a lot of infrastructure spending as economic stimulus, and have asked for proposals which can start the moment ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Capture: Well spaced out
    It's my distraction,  setting up tiny scenes to photograph.  I've got stuck on the Babushka dolls for now.  Something about their bubble shape.  Something about their never changing, smiling features, suggesting persistent equanimity.  Can we get through everything that is being thrown at us and keep at least a tiny ...
    4 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 6
    . . March 31: Day six of living in lock-down… This time I managed to sleep a little longer and the alarm woke me at the pre-set time: 6.55am. Then remembered I was working a later shift and could’ve slept in. Oh well, there are things to do at home. ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    4 days ago
  • March ’20 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking
    Image credit: Diamond Harbour School Blogs I notice a few regulars no longer allow public access to the site counters. This may happen accidentally when the blog format is altered. If your blog is unexpectedly missing or ...
    4 days ago
  • Hard News: Poll Pot and the partisans
    Yesterday's Horizon poll showing support for a "Yes" vote in this year's cannabis referendum sliding into the majority for the first time in a year looked like good news for reformers – and it probably is. But the result warrants some scrutiny.The poll is the fifth in a series commissioned ...
    4 days ago
  • Why those bubbles are so important
    For almost a week now, every one of us who isn’t an essential worker has been confined to their bubble. We are allowed to go shopping for groceries, to visit the doctor, and to get a bit of exercise if we stay local. The reason we are doing this is ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    4 days ago
  • A Government System That Works
    The Covid-19 saga will no doubt produce many twists and turns for us before it is finally brought to an end. But one thing it has shown us – and what comfort it should bring us – is that our country’s government is in good hands. I am not thinking ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    4 days ago
  • Smashing down the barriers: Where are we at with COVID vaccines?
    In the absence of a vaccine or a cure for a deadly disease, staying home in your bubble is what you do, the concept is not new.  To the best of my knowledge last time we did this in NZ was for polio, in the years before a vaccine came ...
    SciBlogsBy Helen Petousis Harris
    4 days ago
  • National Network on Cuba (USA): “Cuban medical solidarity is a pillar of its society and is founde...
    The following statement was released on March 28 by the National Network on Cuba, a coalition of 40 groups, based in the United States. In recent weeks, Cuba has deployed hundreds of medical providers to over a dozen countries in Europe, Asia, as well as to their neighbors in Latin ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • Alarming decrease in calves increases fears for endangered Hector’s dolphin
    This has been a terrible summer for Hector’s dolphins. The first indication was very low numbers of dolphin sightings during late spring and early summer. The Otago University Marine Mammal Research Team has carried out routine dolphin surveys at Banks Peninsula for more than 30 years. In all that time, ...
    SciBlogsBy Otago Marine Science
    4 days ago
  • Time for Grant Robertson to reveal package #2?
    On March 17, Finance Minister Grant Robertson was quick out of the blocks with an economic rescue package to help businesses through the inevitable recession resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. Robertson had pulled together a scheme in short order that so far seems to have saved many jobs. In his ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    4 days ago
  • Saving lives
    The purpose of the lockdown is to save lives, by reducing the spread of covid-19. We won't know if its really working for another week, but given the devastation that will result if it doesn't - 14,000 dead is the optimistic scenario - its definitely worth trying. But pausing the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 5
    . . March 30: Day five of living in lock-down… Woke up still in darkness. Alarm hadn’t gone off. Turn to radio clock; it’s a few minutes after 6am… I lie there in the dark, waiting to drift off to sleep… but it ain’t happening. Clock ticks over to 6.55 ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    5 days ago
  • Speaker: Les Gray: the man who told the truth
    The story of Les Gray, the public sector psychologist who told the truth about his use of cannabis and set off a storm, has a special place in the lore of cannabis reform in New Zealand.When Paul Shannon interviewed Gray for the 'Dope and Hope' issue of Planet magazine in ...
    5 days ago
  • Why now? Historical specificity and the perfect storm that has created trans identity politics
    by Phil Duncan For Marxists, a key concern about social trends is their context – not just their causes, but why they happen when they do.  Events and phenomena have causes, but they also are time or period-specific. While much of the left have capitulated recently to postmodernism, most notably ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • Time for a living wage for supermarket workers
    Since the lockdown began, we've all suddenly been reminded who the actually essential workers in our society are: not the people at the top who pay themselves the big bucks and rort the perks, but the people at the bottom they screw over and squeeze: cleaners, warehouse staff, truck drivers ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Hard News: MUSIC: Lockdown Grooves
    Kia ora! As I've watched nearly all my remaining work vanish over the past couple of days, it has occured to me that one good way to keep me away from arguing with fools on Twitter all the time (in the knowledge that all we're really doing is processing our ...
    5 days ago
  • A place of greater safety?
    Aotearoa New Zealand has committed to trying to extirpate the virus that causes COVID-19 from its shores. To do that, as a society we’ve moved to “Level 4”. That means adapting to unprecedented restrictions on our personal freedoms, particularly to our rights to move freely and associate with friends and ...
    PunditBy Andrew Geddis
    6 days ago
  • The police and public trust
    When the Prime Minister declared a state of emergency last week, she handed the police powers to enforce it. And almost immediately, we started hearing about heavy-handed, arbitrary "enforcement" by police who (at best) cared more about order than law, or (more likely) had no idea what the rules were ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 4
    . . Lock Down: Day 4 – A photo essay with observations . March 29: Usual wake up routine as RNZ snaps on my radio-clock. Jim Mora’s voice slowly enters my conciousness; there’s talk of a second wave of covid19 taking hold in South Korea; the week in Parliament – ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    6 days ago
  • COVID-19 vs New Zealand
    Yesterday, New Zealand recorded its first Covid-19 related death on the West Coast. Unfortunately this is unlikely to be the only fatality, with the virus now being found in every region of the country.However despite the significant danger, people are still unfortunately breaching lockdown rules.There’s really only one main very ...
    6 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #13
    Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Review... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... ‘Misinformation kills’: The link between coronavirus conspiracies and climate denial   Grist / Rob Kim / Stringer / CSA Images  Scientific ...
    6 days ago
  • Rāhui day 4
    The kids did surprisingly well today – meltdown count was about 3, and mostly fairly short ones. (And a fourth while I was writing.) Game-wise I had a go at Fell Seal: Arbiter’s Mark. It’s a fairly standard RPG with turn-based combat and what they call a “mature storyline” (it ...
    The little pakehaBy chrismiller
    6 days ago
  • Letter to a friend
    by Don Franks Hi David, Nice hearing from you, I’m glad to hear you’re getting by okay in these grim times. You asked how’s it going for us back here in New Zealand. You would have heard that the whole country is locked down and with breaks for exercise and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 3
    . . Lock Down: Day 3 – A photo essay with observations . March 28: First day of the first weekend in Lock Down. It feels like it’s been weeks since only Level 3 was declared last Tuesday, only four days ago. Woke up this morning to RNZ; coffee; toast, ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    7 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #13
    A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Mar 22, 2020 through Sat, Mar 28, 2020 Articles Linked to on Facebook Sun, Mar 22, 2020 In Just 10 Years, Warming Has Increased the Odds of Disasters by Chelsea Harvey, ...
    7 days ago
  • Rāhui day 3
    I’m here in lockdown with my flatmate and her two girls (6 and 2) and it. is. a time. They’re usually really active so to start with the only boardgame in the house is the copy of Guess Who that the 6 year old got for her birthday. Flatmate commented ...
    The little pakehaBy chrismiller
    1 week ago
  • A test of civil society.
    The CV-19 (COVID) pandemic has seen the imposition of a government ordered national quarantine and the promulgation of a series of measures designed to spread the burden of pain and soften the economic blow on the most strategically important and most vulnerable sectors of society. The national narrative is framed ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Life in Lock Down: Day 2
    . . Lock Down: Day 2 – A photo essay with observations . March 27 – Day 2 of our Strange New World. The Park and Ride near my suburb, usually filled with hundreds of vehicles, had just… four; . . Another drive into Wellington City on a highway nearly ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • How Do You Feel? What Do You Think?
    Fortune's Children: Under extraordinary pressure, the leader of the Government and the leader of the Opposition will each show us what they are made of. Have they been blessed with intelligence, grace, wit, poise, toughness, empathy and humour – and in what measure? More importantly, to what extent have they ...
    1 week ago
  • Landlords are NOT an essential service
    If you’ve ever had the misfortune of having to rent a property on the open market in New Zealand, which is one of the most expensive in the entire world, you’ll likely be keenly aware of just how arrogant and entitled landlords and their real estate agents can be.Unfortunately for ...
    1 week ago
  • A “new Society” post-COVID19 will definitely emerge. The question is: on what path?
    Society-wise, aside from the specific morbidity shall we say of the medically-oriented aspects of this COVID-19 crisis, what is unfolding before the world is in more than one way an instructive study of humanity and reactions to a high intensity, high stress environment in real time. Friends, we are at ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    1 week ago
  • Raise the Bar: Everything you need to know about the wage subsidy
    Right now low waged and insecure workers are feeling the economic brunt of the looming #Covid19 Recession. In response legal advocate Toby Cooper* and hospitality and worker’s rights advocate Chloe Ann-King, are putting together a series of legal blogs about your employment rights: In this legal blog we outline some ...
    PosseBy chloeanneking
    1 week ago
  • The massacre of prisoners in Modelo jail, Bogota, March 21
    by Equipo Jurídico Pueblos and Gearóid Ó Loingsigh (25/03/2020) An escape plan in question On the night of March 21st and the early morning of the 22nd, the forces of the Colombian state stormed into the Modelo prison in Bogotá, murdering 23 prisoners and injuring 83, in response to the ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • We are not America
    When the government banned semi-automatic weapons in response to a terrorist atrocity, gun-nuts were outraged. Mired in toxic American gun culture, they thought owning weapons whose sole purpose was killing people was some sort of "constitutional right", a necessity for "defending themselves" against the government. Now, the Court of Appeal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • When will we know the lockdown is working?
    Just before midnight on Wednesday March 25, Aotearoa New Zealand entered a countrywide alert level four lockdown. For at least the next four weeks, everyone who isn’t an essential worker is confined to their bubble. We are doing this to stop the explosive growth in people contracting and dying from ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    1 week ago
  • Lock Down: Day 1
    . . Lock Down: Day 1 – A photo essay with observations . Day one of the Level 4 nationwide lock-down (or, DefCon 4 as I sometimes cheekily call it) started at 11.59PM on 25 March. For a moment, most of the nation held it’s collective breath. In that brief ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • A Compelling Recollection.
    Broad, Sunlit Uplands: How those words fired my young imagination! Or, perhaps, it is more accurate to say: how those words fused, in my young mind, with the image printed on every packet of Fielder’s Cornflour. Always fascinated by history, especially modern history, I cannot hear Churchill’s wonderfully evocative words, even ...
    1 week ago
  • The Warehouse – where everyone gets a virus
    . . 24 March 2020 9.46AM Number of covid19 cases in Aotearoa New Zealand: 102 . As of 11.59 on Thursday, most of New Zealand will go into “lock down”. People will be expected not to travel to work; not to socialise; and to stay home. I will not be ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Aggressive action to address climate change could save the world $145 trillion
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections A respected research group, Project Drawdown, finds that deploying solutions consistent with meeting the Paris climate targets would cost tens of trillions of dollars globally. But crucially, those outlays would also yield long-term savings many times larger than the up-front costs. The new 2020 Drawdown ...
    1 week ago
  • After the Pandemic
    It will pass. What happens next? Not immediately, but longer term. There are many opinions, fewer certainties. Will it “change everything!” as many confidently, and contradictorily predict? In this post I look at how foresight can help bound some of the uncertainties so you can more objectively consider the future. ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    1 week ago
  • Coronavirus – Cuba shows the way
    We’ve been meaning t write something on Cuba and the coronavirus but have just discovered a very good article on the subject in the US left publication Jacobin.  The article looks at how Cuba, a poor country but one where capitalism has been done away with, is leading the way ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Using privacy law to prevent the death penalty
    In 2018, El Shafee Elsheikh and Alexanda Kotey - two British citizens who had purportedly been stripped of their citizenship by the British government - were captured while fighting for Isis in Syria. The British government then conspired to hand them over to the US, and agreed to provide evidence ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • It’s Time For Disaster Socialism.
    Transformers: The disaster of the Great Depression was transformed into a new and fairer society by the democratic socialism of the First Labour Government. The disaster of the Covid-19 Pandemic offers a similar transformative possibility to the Labour-NZ First-Green Government. Seize the time, Jacinda! You will never have a better ...
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #12, 2020
    Tamper with The System? Well, we already are. But there's a difference between accidentally trickling sand into a precision gearbox versus formulating a plan to alter it on the fly with improvements in mind. One action is more or less innocently unscrupulous, the other amenable to earning an easy ...
    1 week ago
  • Avoidable hospitalisations: Helping our health system get through COVID-19
    Associate Prof George Thomson, Louise Delany, Prof Nick Wilson While it is possible that New Zealand can use intense public health controls to eradicate COVID-19 from the country – we must also plan for other scenarios where thousands of New Zealanders are sick – including many urgently hospitalised.1 Better resilience ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • Raise the Bar: 10 questions to ask your employer proposing redundancy
    Kia ora my name is Chloe Ann-King* and I am the founder of Raise the Bar, a campaign and non-profit that gives free legal aid, advocacy and tautoko to hospitality workers in Aotearoa. Right now all over our country hospo workers are being fired at will, having shifts cut or being ...
    PosseBy chloeanneking
    2 weeks ago

  • Further measures to support businesses
    The Government will be introducing legislation to make changes to the Companies Act to help companies facing insolvency due to COVID-19 to remain viable and keep New Zealanders in jobs. The temporary changes include: Giving directors of companies facing significant liquidity problems because of COVID-19 a ‘safe harbour’ from insolvency ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Govt’s COVID plan, economic strength recognised
    The Government’s plan to cushion the blow of COVID-19 by supporting incomes, jobs and businesses, and position the economy to recover has been backed by another international report. International credit rating agency Moody’s today reaffirmed its highest Aaa credit rating on New Zealand, saying the economy is expected to remain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Funding certainty for sports through COVID-19
    National sports organisations have been given certainty of funding to ensure they can remain viable through the COVID-19 pandemic, Sport and Recreation Minister Grant Robertson announced today. “The global spread of COVID-19 has had a significant impact on sport and recreation in New Zealand, including the cancellation or postponement of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Butchers now allowed to process pork
    Changes have been made to allow butchers to process pork, only for supply to supermarkets or other processors or retailers that are open, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor has announced. “We carefully weighed the risk of allowing butchers to open their shops for retail customers, but the risk of spreading COVID-19 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Essential workers leave scheme established
    Essential workers who take leave from work to comply with public health guidance are being supported with a leave scheme to ensure they will continue to receive income, say the Minister of Workplace Relations and Safety Iain Lees-Galloway and Minister for Social Development, Carmel Sepuloni. A number of essential businesses ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Govt WhatsApp helps share COVID-19 information
    A Government WhatsApp channel has been launched to help make information more easily accessible and shareable in the fight against COVID-19. Govt.NZ, which is free to use on any mobile device, will carry information and news for the public, businesses, healthcare providers, not for profits and local government. It can ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Managed departure plan for stranded foreign nationals enables safe, orderly exit
    The Government has announced a plan to enable the safe, orderly exit of tens of thousands of stranded foreign nationals from New Zealand during the current COVID-19 Alert Level 4 restrictions, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters has said. “When we moved into lockdown a week ago, the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government delivers COVID-19 support to GPs and Pharmacies
    Health Minister Dr David Clark says the Government is delivering on its commitment to support general practice doctors and nurses, and pharmacies on the front-line of our fight against COVID-19. "For us to overcome COVID-19, we need community health services such as general practice and community pharmacy to step up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Susan Thomas the new Chief High Court Judge
    Justice Susan Thomas has been appointed Chief High Court Judge, Attorney-General David Parker announced today.  She replaces Justice Geoffrey Venning who has resigned from the position.   David Parker paid tribute to Justice Venning, who he said had stewarded the High Court very capably over the last five years.   “On behalf ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Business Finance Guarantee – applications open
    Businesses can start applying to their banks for loans under the Business Finance Guarantee Scheme set up to support the New Zealand economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. “We’re moving quickly to protect New Zealand businesses, jobs and the economy during this unprecedented global economic shock,” Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Work starts on ways to fast-track consents to boost recovery from Covid-19 downturn
    Work is underway looking at measures to speed up consents for development and infrastructure projects during the recovery from COVID 19, to provide jobs and stimulate our economy.  Environment Minister David Parker said the COVID-19 pandemic is a serious global crisis that will have a wide ranging and lasting impact ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Advance payments to support contractors
    Advance payments will be made to transport construction industry contractors to retain the workforce and ensure it is ready to quickly gear up to build projects which will be vital to New Zealand’s COVID-19 economic recovery, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. He said keeping the workforce required to build ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government seeks infrastructure projects
    The Government has tasked a group of industry leaders to seek out infrastructure projects that are ready to start as soon as the construction industry returns to normal to reduce the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford and Infrastructure Minister Shane Jones say. The Infrastructure ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Health system scaled up to prepare for COVID-19
    Work to scale up the health system in preparation for COVID-19 was today outlined by Health Minister David Clark, as he reported back to the new Epidemic Response Committee. “We are well placed to contain the spread of COVID-19. We have taken early and decisive action at our borders, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Essential media COVID-19 guidelines refined
    The Government is refining its COVID-19 essential business guidance to include the distribution of news publications for communities which are hard to reach. The Minister of Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media, Kris Faafoi, said the move was in recognition of the importance for New Zealanders who might be harder to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Supermarkets able to open on Easter Sunday
    The Government is ensuring supermarkets can open on Easter Sunday so we can buy groceries, but stay closed on Good Friday allowing workers to take a break. This provides a balanced approach and ensures we avoid large queues that two days closure may cause. “Supermarkets will be able to open ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand defence personnel conclude mission at Taji
    Following the successful conclusion of the Building Partner Capacity (BPC) mission at Taji, New Zealand defence personnel are returning to New Zealand from Iraq, in accordance with the Cabinet decision made in June 2019, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today. “New Zealand is very ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • State of National Emergency extended
    The State of National Emergency to help stop the spread of COVID-19 has been extended for a further seven days, Minister of Civil Defence Peeni Henare said. The initial declaration on March 25 lasted seven days and can be extended as many times as necessary. “Since we went into isolation ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Strong Govt books support ‘go hard, go early’ response
    New Zealand’s ability to go hard and go early in the fight against COVID-19 has been underpinned by strong Government finances and the growing economy heading into this global pandemic, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Treasury today released the Crown financial statements for the eight months to the end ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Christchurch Hospital Hagley ICU to open to support COVID-19 response
    Health Minister Dr David Clark says 36 new intensive care beds at Christchurch Hospital’s new Hagley building are being fast tracked so they are available for treatment of COVID-19 patients.   The Ministry of Health is working with contractor CPB and Canterbury DHB to enable access to the hospital’s ICU, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government supports Air NZ freight flights
    The Government has fast-tracked up to $1 million to help Air New Zealand move urgent freight to and from New Zealand, with the first flight to Shanghai leaving tonight, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. Phil Twyford says it’s crucial that trade in vital goods such as medical supplies and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Tariff concessions on COVID-19 related products
    New Zealand will temporarily remove tariffs on all medical and hygiene imports needed for the COVID-19 response. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker and Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Kris Faafoi said today that the New Zealand Customs Service will apply tariff concessions to all diagnostic reagents and testing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Clarification of modification to wage subsidy scheme
    Minister of Finance Grant Robertson has clarified that the changes to the wage subsidy scheme announced yesterday mean that employers should be passing on the full subsidy to workers, except in the case where the person’s normal income is less than the level of the subsidy. “We still want employers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Face masks flowing to DHBs
    Medical face masks from the national reserve supply are now being distributed to District Health Boards, while at the same time local production is being ramped up. Yesterday more than 640,000 masks were sent to DHBS – that is an immediate two week supply, with more to follow in coming ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19: Further steps to protect New Zealanders’ jobs
    The Government has made modifications to the wage subsidy scheme to ensure people don’t lose their jobs during the national lockdown. These changes will soften the impact of COVID-19 on workers, families and businesses, and position them to exit the lockdown and look to recovery, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Tax relief for Mycoplasma Bovis farmers
    Farmers whose herds were culled in response to the outbreak of Mycoplasma bovis will be able to minimise the tax treatment of their income in some circumstances. Revenue Minister Stuart Nash says Cabinet has agreed to change the law. It means farmers may be eligible to spread their income over ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • $27 million for NGOs and community groups to continue providing essential services
    A $27 million dollar package, effective immediately, is being provided to social sector services and community groups to ensure they can continue to provide essential support to communities as we stay at home as a nation to stop the spread of COVID-19, Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni announced. “At ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Statement on guilty plea of March 15 terrorist
    “The guilty plea today will provide some relief to the many people whose lives were shattered by what happened on March 15,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said. “These guilty pleas and conviction bring accountability for what happened and also save the families who lost loved ones, those who were injured, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19 updates
    The Prime Minister is holding daily press conferences to update New Zealanders on the Government's response to COVID-19. Links to videos and transcripts of these updates below. These transcripts also include All of Government press conferences led by Director Ministry of Health's Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield. 25 March: Live update from the Prime ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Police numbers break through 10,000 mark
    Frontline Police numbers have broken through the 10,000 mark for the first time in history as officers step forward to keep the community safe during the COVID19 lockdown. “Two Police graduations in Auckland and Wellington in the past week have been conducted in unprecedented circumstances,” Police Minister Stuart Nash said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Urgent tax measures for economic recovery
    Urgent legislation has been passed to support the package of economic and social measures needed to recover from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. “The COVID-19 Response (Taxation and Social Assistance Urgent Measures) Bill will cushion New Zealanders from the worst economic impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak,” said Revenue Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further support for farmers and growers as drought persists
    From tomorrow, Government support for farmers and growers affected by drought will be expanded and extended across the country, with access to Rural Assistance Payments (RAPS) available throughout the North Island, parts of the South Island and the Chatham Islands, Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced. “These challenging conditions have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19: Temporary changes to Education Act
    Parliament has passed amendments to legislation that give the Secretary of Education stronger powers to act in the fight to limit the spread of COVID-19, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “They are part of a suite of changes passed under the COVID-19 Response (Urgent Management Measures) Legislation Bill,” Chris ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Canada, Australia, Chile, Brunei and Myanmar join NZ and Singapore in committing to keeping supply a...
    Canada, Australia, Chile, Brunei and Myanmar have joined forces with New Zealand and Singapore by committing to keep supply chains open and remove any existing trade restrictive measures on essential goods, especially medical supplies, in the face of the Covid-19 crisis.  Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker today welcomed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19: Rent increase freeze and more protection for tenants
    Immediate freeze on rent increases Tenancies will not be terminated during the lock-down period, unless the parties agree, or in limited circumstances Tenants who had previously given notice can stay in their if they need to stay in the tenancy during the lock-down period Tenants will still be able to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Working together to protect businesses and workers
    As New Zealand unites to lock-down in the fight against COVID-19, the Finance Minister is urging all businesses and workers to stay connected over the next four weeks. “We understand the extreme pressure many businesses are under right now. I know most business owners think of their workers as family ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • State of National Emergency declared to fight COVID-19
    A State of National Emergency has been declared across the country as the Government pulls out all the stops to curtail the spread of COVID-19. “Today we put in place our country’s second ever State of National Emergency as we fight a global pandemic, save New Zealanders’ lives and prevent ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Prime Minister’s statement on State of National Emergency and Epidemic Notice
    Mr Speaker I wish to make a Ministerial Statement under Standing Order 347 in relation to the recent declaration of a State of National Emergency. Having considered the advice of the Director Civil Defence Emergency Management, the Minister of Civil Defence declared a State of National Emergency for the whole of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Deadline for domestic travel extended
    People needing to travel on domestic flights, trains and Cook Strait ferries to get home before the country moves into level 4 lock-down tomorrow night will be able to continue using the passenger services until midnight on Friday, Transport Minister Phil Twyford said today. Domestic passenger services, particularly ferries, have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Mortgage holiday and business finance support schemes to cushion COVID impacts
    The Government, retail banks and the Reserve Bank are today announcing a major financial support package for home owners and businesses affected by the economic impacts of COVID-19. The package will include a six month principal and interest payment holiday for mortgage holders and SME customers whose incomes have been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago