The latest polls suggest a change in Government

Written By: - Date published: 8:39 pm, February 11th, 2025 - 15 comments
Categories: act, greens, labour, maori party, national, nz first, Politics, polls - Tags:

The latest polls are all bad news for National

The One News Verian poll had support for National dropping three points to 34 percent.

ACT went up 1 point to 9 percent while New Zealand First dropped one point to 5 percent.

Labour went up four points to 33 percent, the Greens were steady on 10 percent and Te Pāti Māori dropped three points to 4 percent.

This result on election day would see the left bloc with 61 seats, enough just to form a government.

Economic optimisim dropped 5 points to 36 percent, compared to Verian’s December poll result.

And economic pessimism rose three points to 25 percent.

The right track wrong track was bad, 39% right and 50% wrong.

Luxon’s preferred PM ranking dropped two points to 22 percent. Hipkins’s result rose two points to 17 percent.

And the latest Taxpayers’ Union (not a real union) poll result also suggested that the left could now rule.

It had National slightly ahead of Labour, up 2.3 points to 31.9 percent, while Labour is up 0.4 points to 31.3 percent.

The Greens were up 3.7 points to 13.2 percent.

ACT was down to 10%. Seymour’s antics are not saving them and NZ First was down to 6.4 percent. Te Pāti Māori had a slight dip to 4.4 percentage points. This poll also had the left at 61 seats.

Obviously some variation between the two polls but the overall message was clear. The left are now in a position to win the next election. And cause the first one term National Government in its history.

I am pretty sure that Willis and Bishop are sharpening their knives.

Bring it on.

15 comments on “The latest polls suggest a change in Government ”

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  1. Kat 1
    11 February 2025 at 9:29 pm

    The sleepy sheeple hobbits of Nu Zilind are awaking from their slumber………. they shout they have been conned…….their choice was but a blunder……..in the distance the sky turns red……..Sean Plunket falls on his head……..tripped up by a chip of dread……that the hobbits have arisen and stolen the platform's cred……..

  2. Tony Veitch 2
    12 February 2025 at 4:31 am

    The lower Natz and Luxon's poll numbers drop, the more outrageous and unmanageable Seymour's behaviour will become – he knows he has the CoC over a barrel!

    And Seymours behaviour and statements WILL become more extreme because he follows the Trump playbook – any publicity is good publicity! Just wait until he's DPM!

    One could almost . . . almost (but not quite) begin to feel sorry for the deodorant salesman. The debasing and humiliating things one has to put up with for a knighthood. It's just as well he's a narcissistic sociopath!

    P.S. I've begun to stock up on popcorn before there's a shortage!

  3. thinker 3
    12 February 2025 at 7:14 am

    Luxon will be thinking "they just need to get to know me, then they will like me". And telling the people behind him this is going to be a good year.

    The people behind Luxon will be wondering how much longer they can afford to give him rope.

    The wannabe PM wolves will be starting to bay at night, and sniff each other's hindquarters.

    Only a week ago, Seymour compared parliament to Hamlet but at some point Julius Caesar might be more of a comparison.

    IMHO

  4. Tony Veitch 4
    12 February 2025 at 7:50 am

    I apologise to all Standardisters for this link!!

    But Sean Plunket puts the boot into Luxon big time! 8.24 nauseating minutes long.

    And Plunket's conclusion – the only suitable replacement in the Natz is . . . wait for it . . . Judith Collins!

    Wow!

  5. Dennis Frank 5
    12 February 2025 at 10:09 am

    Hipkins just needs to stand there, as usual. No need to do anything. It's the economy, stupid, thinks Lux. "Bugger, I've chanted the growth mantra till the damn thing started making me sick. What more do I have to do?"

    Form a circle, lad. All the best co-creators do it. Chanting in unison seems to be what always works for human groups, and parliament has a nice big front lawn for that, plus fine weather. A circle of Nats in suits is what is missing from this picture.

    So 5% of the electorate have become disillusioned with the govt over recent months due to the anticipated revival of the economy not happening: https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360576680/national-faces-historically-bad-polling-heres-what-means-government

  6. Chris 6
    12 February 2025 at 11:16 am

    We're almost two years from an election. The polls mean almost nothing. If anything, it reminds the natz that they’ll need to lie and hoodwink a little more between now and the election, which they’ll do with ease.

  7. AB 7
    12 February 2025 at 11:31 am

    If Labour are handed the historic opportunity of a one-term National government, there's a good chance they will stuff it up with a Starmer-like dullness and a refusal to declare the economic status quo dead beyond any revival. Then my guess as to who succeeds them is ACT – provided they find a leadership that does not conform to their historical pattern of intensely dislikeable weirdos and cranks who are the opposite or ordinary NZers in their instincts and attitudes. Is there a Kiwi Farage out there?

  8. James Simpson 8
    12 February 2025 at 11:45 am

    Let's not get ahead of ourselves. In February 2020, the polls suggested a one term Jacinda government. 8 months later she lead Labour to be come the first majority MMP government. Things change and can change quickly.

    But this is encouraging because the trend is consistent and heading in one direction. Without really currently offering an alternative vision, Hipkins has a return to the 9th floor in his sights.

  9. Mike the Lefty 9
    12 February 2025 at 12:16 pm

    We can be pretty sure there will be no snap election this year. The CoC needs a snap election like it needs a hole in the head.

    But that doesn't mean there won't be changes. National MPs are getting pretty touchy about their lameduck leader and I'm sure there is power behind the scenes. If Luxon hangs on I reckon there may be a few National MPs considering defecting to ACT. After all most of them secretly agree with ACT'S economic policies anyway and being right wing they will instinctively follow the scent of power, not weakness.

  10. Patricia Bremner 10
    12 February 2025 at 2:19 pm

    A flailing Right will be dangerous. The "photo with the monitor on the Maori Warrior taken twelve months before, presented as happening at Waitangi now. The Ngapui Leader being presented as "creaming it" while others eat two minute noodles was to divide the haves from the have nots on X.

    Two examples of misleading AI and doctored items. These should have reproductions with False stamped in Red across them.

    We well need to be vigilant as nearer the election they will get more nasty and vindictive.

    We need to name the backers and money people backing this stripping of the commons.

    They are bringing more of these people in. Any character checks needed, or are they verified by the Upper Room and Atlas Billionaires Club?

  11. Spillage 11
    13 February 2025 at 5:10 pm

    The natz got the only 2 things they were after

    Landlord's tax exemption

    And slashing govt services

    Now they couldn't give a bugger til the election puts them out

    So they'll just suck up their bs and spin it out until we either force an early election if we have any parliamentarians who still know how to do it