The latest polls

Written By: - Date published: 6:24 pm, September 17th, 2014 - 92 comments
Categories: election 2014 - Tags:

Two polls are out today, a Roy Morgan and a 3news Reid Research.  Both are predicting National to be well ahead of Labour although the figures are much closer than they were last time.

The RM poll has Labour (23.5%) and the Greens ((14.5%) slipping back and National up to 46.5%.  In the equivalent RM poll last election National was on 49.5% and ended on 47.3%.

The Reid Research will make National’s eyes water.  It had them down to 44.5%.  Remember last time the equivalent RR poll overestimated National’s support by 3.5% points.

And last time RM underestimated Labour’s result by 4% points and RR by 1.5% points.

New Zealand First is strong in both polls and the Greens are doing well although both polls overestimated Green support last time.

Last time the turnout was down in part I am sure because everyone thought that it was a foregone conclusion.  This time we have to make sure that everyone gets out to vote.  I am sure that the polls under reports Labour’s support at the same time that I am sure that a low turnout hurts Labour’s support.  The higher the turnout the greater the difference between Labour’s polling and Labour’s actual result.

It seems likely that New Zealand First will hold the balance of power.  If the Conservatives get over 5% of the vote then it may be that Key will be able to cobble a coalition together and not depend on New Zealand First’s support.  It will also be very scary.  There are some distinctly weird people on the Conservative Party’s list and the thought of them being in Parliament is worrying.

This election will be won vote by vote.  No matter if your preference is Labour or Green or Mana if you want to change the Government the best thing that you can do for your country is make sure that you get as many people as possible to vote.

92 comments on “The latest polls”

  1. JRT 1

    Fingers crossed that if the Conservatives get across the line, National’s support has dropped so far it still won’t be enough. I’m not sure how early voting is going to affect the accuracy of these last polls though, as a large percentage of the population has already voted and these polls will only reflect the views of the people yet to vote.

  2. Ant 2

    It must be 300,000 or so early votes counting today, pretty insane.

    It will be interesting to see if pissed off and polarised lefties tilt the turnout figures in any way.

  3. JRT 3

    Also of interest, the TV3 poll is the most current, they polled between 9-15 September while Roy Morgan polled between 1-14 September.

  4. NZSage 4

    I would not be surprised in the slightest if these polls prove to be wildly out.

    Oh the joy if they are, not only the demise of National but proof the whole polling process needs transforming.

    • AsleepWhileWalking 4.1

      In Not the Six O’clock News Laila said the poll for Hone’s electorate (where a large proportion of voters don’t have landlines) showed he would struggle to win. This was also at odds with the Lolly poll, while Mana’s own poll (without landline bias) showed Hone a clear winner.

    • word 4.2

      +1 Totally agree NZSage.

      • Colonial Viper 4.2.1

        several major polls were accurate to +/- 3% in 2011. Which is about what they promised.

      • dave 4.2.2

        yes it would great shove there polls even better to shove national anyone keen head to john keys house on election night to rub in thee lose

  5. Jenk 5

    And will Labour’s turn-out-the-vote strategy make a difference this time ? Fingers crossed.

  6. swordfish 6

    (1) It’s crucial for the Left that Colin Craig’s Conservatives don’t cross the threshold. Otherwise it’s all over rover.

    (2) I hope we don’t come to regret Advance Voting. If we are, indeed, witnessing a genuine swing away from the Nats in the polls, and one that may intensify this week …..but a third of the electorate having already voted !

    (3) One will set out one’s predictions on one’s blog Thurs night or Fri morning. (After some frenzied work on the calculator). But I’ll include enough provisos to cover my ass (or protect my buttocks, as we non-Americans would say).

    [lprent: So polite. Generally I say “cover my butt” or “cover my arse” ]

    • JRT 6.1

      Colin Craig reckons he’s seen polls that have him at 5.5%, he’s looking pretty confident. Though John Key wasn’t pushing him tonight, just saying to people not to try and vote in coalition partners and to give the vote to National so maybe their polling is showing that Craig’s support may not be enough. Neither of these polls factor in the spying scandal though, what that is doing to people’s voting intentions is unknown.

      • Granted 6.1.1

        Where do these other polls come from that Craig refers to. Surely he is making such statements to convince voters that voting for his party is not a wasted vote??

    • weka 6.2

      “(1) It’s crucial for the Left that Colin Craig’s Conservatives don’t cross the threshold. Otherwise it’s all over rover.”

      Not sure about that. Can’t check because the calculator is down, but doesn’t it depend on the Māori seats, ACT and UF too?

      • ghostwhowalksnz 6.2.1

        Absolutely, Act , UF and Maori party will all most be overhang seats.

        In total % they could be say 2.2% which would be 2 MPs, but winning seats could mean they are 4 MPs.

        Act and UF could be 1% in total, while MP is 1.2%. The two extra seats gives Key enough to form a government if it is very close

        • weka 6.2.1.1

          possible result with CC on 5%, no UF or ACT and the right still not getting enough to form govt without Peters. I dropped National to 42.5 though.

          • Lanthanide 6.2.1.1.1

            You’re missing 4.5% of the vote, which is quite a lot. And by giving Maori Party 0%, you create an overhang of 1 seat.

            Hence why I suggest starting with iPredict numbers.

            • Tangled_up 6.2.1.1.1.1

              The ‘party votes won’ column doesn’t include the party votes from the parties that did not cross the threshold and didn’t win an electorate.

              • Lanthanide

                Yes, I know, but even going with iPredicts numbers for the party votes that weka didn’t include, that adds up to 3.2% of the vote. So weka’s numbers missing 4.5% is quite ‘far off’ a likely outcome.

                • weka

                  yeah sorry, I was in a hurry. What’s the usual numer of ‘other’ votes?

                  I don’t want to start with someone else’s numbers. I want the actual percentages. I don’t think ipredict gives those, does it?

                  Edit, just seen more % down the page. But I still don’t know what I am looking. Whose numbers are all these?

                  I agree the graphics are nice. Maybe by next election the election calculator will be in the 21st century.

                  • Lanthanide

                    They’re the numbers from iPredict.

                    Now, I am not saying they are gospel and should be relied upon. What I am saying is that these numbers are likely to be more accurate than any single poll, or even the poll of polls, which routinely over-sample National and under-sample NZFirst.

                    Daryl’s corrected polls at Dimpost would probably be the best to use.

                    The other good part about the iPredict numbers is that they have some measure of polling on the electorate seats, eg Ohariu, Epsom and the Maori seats, where the typical newspaper/TV polls simply don’t and make silly assumptions like the MP are going to win 3 seats when no one outside of the MP thinks that is a likely outcome.

                    • weka

                      I’m not really trying to predict anything. I’m just trying to demonstrate that we really have no idea whenever someone makes a statement such as if CC gets ver 5% we’re fucked. It all depends on many variables.

                      Does ipredict adjust for landline issues in the Māori seats? To me, those seats are the wild cards, because most Pākehā media doesn’t follow Māori politics.

                    • Lanthanide

                      Yeah, but you’re trying to demonstrate possible outcomes, they need to be calculated to match reality as much as possible, which means getting vote totals to match as much as possible.

                      iPredict is not a polling service, it’s a market where anyone can spend some money to make a bet on the outcome of an event. Prior to the last election, iPredict was streets ahead of the various polls in terms of accuracy, because the figures on iPredict are the view of the market, created by many (generally right-leaning) points of view to take into account all possible evidence, not just single polls.

                      That’s why on iPredict, National has always been lower than the figure returned by MSM polling, because people on iPredict know the polls has a bias in favour of National.

                    • weka

                      Sure, but then how much of the 2011 election result was a result of the MSM saying beforehand that National would win, it was a done deal? Kind of self-fullfilling prophecy from ipredict. If I thought it was independent and unbiased I might be more inclined to trust it.

                      Point taken about my numbers. Next time I’ll take the time to get all the %s in there.

      • Lanthanide 6.2.2

        This, powered by iPredict, is the best visualisation of the election outcomes: http://www.electionresults.co.nz/

        Because it takes into account likely electorate seats, MP on 1, whereas the MSM polls generally show MP winning 3 seats, even though that’s quite unlikely. You can also easily see which block can form a government: if the black encroaches onto the right, Labour can win with NZ First, if the light blue encroaches onto the left, National can win without NZFirst.

        When it has conservatives at 5%, the right block ends up with 61 or 62 seats, occasionally 63. And that’s with the MP appearing in the left block.

        • weka 6.2.2.1

          I prefer this because it lets me put in different options rather than something Hooton set up telling what it wants to.

          http://www.elections.org.nz//voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator

          • Lanthanide 6.2.2.1.1

            Yes, I’m not suggesting this instead of the calculator, but rather as a starting point for your numbers, instead of using the raw poll results, since the polls don’t take into account electorate seats but iPredict does.

            Also if you just want to ‘eye-ball’ the potential election outcome, I think iPredict is better than the published polls because it is trying to take account of polling bias, eg right now National is at 45.5%, not 47%+ like polls are saying (earlier in the week they were around 44%).

          • AsleepWhileWalking 6.2.2.1.2

            Cheers, just what I was looking for.

    • Lanthanide 6.3

      “(2) I hope we don’t come to regret Advance Voting. If we are, indeed, witnessing a genuine swing away from the Nats in the polls, and one that may intensify this week …..but a third of the electorate having already voted !”

      iPredict says that advance voting in 2011 leaned towards National more than the general results on the day. But in 2011, advance voting was only for people who weren’t able to vote on the day. This year it’s available for everyone and it looks like we’re at 3x the rate of the past election. Given Labour’s focus on getting out the vote, I think it’s reasonable to assume Labour has been getting out their vote, and having 2 weeks to do that gives much greater penetration than a single day.

      However the weather on Saturday is supposed to be snowy and rainy so it might all be moot anyway.

    • Tracey 6.4

      Looking forward to it fish

  7. Jim Nald 7

    Watching Leaders Debate.
    Many in my whanau voted for Nats in 2008.
    They are not voting for Nats this week.
    John Key looking and sounding terrible. Bye Bye Johnny.

  8. Ross 8

    I think it will be fairly close. If National reaches 44 or 45%, it might not be enough if ACT or UF don’t make it.

    • AsleepWhileWalking 8.1

      It would be a happy day if UF and ACT split the votes enough that another party won the seat. I think at this point anything is possible especially if there is one more crisis to the right in the lead up from hell ha ha ha.

    • Tracey 8.2

      Those Nats in Epsom who were thinking of not voting for Seymour may have last minute wobbles and vote that way to save John… I hope they dont…. but self interest abides in the olde towne of Epsom

  9. weka 9

    Elections calculator as just gone offline.

    edit, back now. Maybe server overload

    edit, back but not working

  10. Sable 10

    You have to wonder about the mentality of your average Kiwi if they think another 3 years of these shady clowns is a good idea.

    • weka 10.1

      only 1/3 of enrolled voters voted National last time. Not sure if that counts as average kiwi.

      • Sable 10.1.1

        Yes I know. Approx 1M did not vote.

        Still seems to me people are either easily misled or maybe they just don’t care about each other anymore…

        • adam 10.1.1.1

          Yes and no, there has been a deliberate programme to make people not vote. Chris Hedges, Noam Chomsky, and now our Nicky Hager expose this method of manipulation.

          There’s an old adage – *whilst we have a democracy, people should not be encouraged to vote for their interests, lest they upset the order of things*

    • Liberal Realist 10.2

      +1

      I struggle to understand how intelligent, generally decent people will still vote National? Even after all that we have seen?

      Speaking with several of my colleagues recently I touched on the election as to, in a subtle way, see which way they lean politically.

      In all three cases, each individual expressed negativity toward Labour along the lines of: “Cunliffe is a dick?”, “Cunliffe is a bit of a loser isn’t he?” & “Cunliffe, isn’t he a bit dodgy?”. When I asked each of these individuals why they thought this about DC/Labour, they had no answer or said they had ‘seen something on TV’.

      IMO is the damaging effect of #DirtyPolitics & this is why there is still a strong possibility that NAct could win a third term. Scary stuff indeed.

      • Tom Jackson 10.2.1

        I struggle to understand how intelligent, generally decent people will still vote National?

        The answer is that they don’t. Many of them don’t think very deeply about politics and economics and buy the simpleton’s view of it that National deals in. Many are authoritarians and see National as the rightful authority which must be supported come what may. A smaller number are outright douchebags who like the idea of an unfair society or are morally impaired in some other respect.

        I spent a long time trying to be fair minded and assuming that there were these decent people who voted for National. The problem is that I never met any. Every tory voter I’ve ever met is either ignorant, a wanker, or an ignorant wanker. They’re rather like conservative intellectuals: a mostly mythical species whose description never matches the reality. It’s like conservative political philosophy: it always turns out to be superficial, nonsensical bullshit that only a cretin could fall for.

        I don’t see any reason to keep pretending. Neither should you.

        • Jepenseque 10.2.1.1

          Hi folks

          I care deeply about politics I’m voting national for a few simple reasons

          -Bill English – steady hand on the finance tiller, unsung hero of raising the “productivity” of state spending. Targeting outcomes rather than $$ spent (in simple terms).
          -Steven Joyce – just a good operator, keen on detail. That is all.
          -Anne Tolley – Despite some people view of Nats being hardline law and order there has been a big focus on and improvement of rehabilitation.

          -Roadbuilding
          -Oil exploration
          -Pro immigration
          -Focus on fixing land supply (leaving aside the nonsensical new home buyers bribe thing).
          -They won’t wreck the electricity market
          -Trade agreements

          All to lift economic performance, to get the social outcomes we all want.

          -Fundamentally I prefer a smaller government, and lower taxes so that we ourselves can get on and build things for our communities and families.

          Cheers

          • DS 10.2.1.1.2

            >-Anne Tolley – Despite some people view of Nats being hardline law and order there has been a big focus on and improvement of rehabilitation.

            I can understand liking English, but Tolley? To paraphrase Blackadder, the woman is as thick as a whale omelet.

            • Jepenseque 10.2.1.1.2.1

              Hi there, don’t know her IQ or EQ but the departments rehabilitation focus under her watch seem to be better than under previous governments, deserves credit for that.

          • Colonial Viper 10.2.1.1.3

            -Fundamentally I prefer a smaller government, and lower taxes so that we ourselves can get on and build things for our communities and families.

            Which is a silly framing on your part IMO, because (ideally) government is led, staffed and run by ordinary Kiwis -the very same people that we grew up with and know from day to day life- who are indeed getting on with building things and providing citizens for our regions and communities.

            They’re not Kiwis any different from us mate.

            • Jepenseque 10.2.1.1.3.1

              Hi, I agree with you on the people side of things. What I was more referring to is in a lower tax/smaller government environment people and communities have more scope to do things. Like start a business, fund an NGO or community group.

              If the government solution to whatever problem we are talking about is the only game in town then I think that is risky and less effective.

        • tc 10.2.1.2

          Agree and heres an example. Last month a few I meet on the trails who are right were genuinely concerned about the lower levels currently being trodden down further by bennett and shonkey.

          When pointed out who the parties serious about it with published policies were the responses were ‘yeah but they are all the same’ and anything but vote for them.

          The dog whistling and dirty politics have done as designed, plenty can see how bad the media is but refuse to seek broader inputs and keep consuming the MSM trash.

  11. Pete 11

    I really think we may have a “Dewey defeats Truman” election on our hands. Turnout is so important. It’s a pity the weather forecast for the weekend isn’t so great.

  12. sockpuppet 12

    This entire election campaign has become so bloody surreal I wouldn’t be surprised if a flying saucer lands in parliament grounds and out comes Elvis.

    • DS 12.1

      … who then proceeds to sue at least one major party for copyright infringement.

      • mac1 12.1.1

        The real question is what song of Elvis Presley’s did John Key choose as his swan song. Was it:
        I Got Stung
        Now and Then There’s a Fool Such as I
        Any Way You Want me
        King Keyhole
        Blue Hawaii
        Return To Sender
        It’s Now or Never
        Puppet on a String
        Johnny B Good
        There Goes My Everything (Knighthood included)
        The Fool
        I Washed My hands in Muddy Waters
        I, John.

        And the people’s vote is…………………..

        I’m Left, You’re Right, She’s Gone (sorry, that’s Judith Collins)

        And the people’s vote is…….

        Put the Blame on Me.

  13. AsleepWhileWalking 13

    Does anyone think that the Greens will win a seat this time? I only ask because in the local body elections they did particularly well.

  14. infused 14

    There are some distinctly weird people on the Green Party’s list and the thought of them being in Parliament is worrying.

    Fixed for what most people in NZ are thinking.

    • Lanthanide 14.1

      No, ‘most’ people are thinking “Gosh, I like that nice man Mr Key”.

      • Local Kiwi 14.1.1

        Key looks old tired and haggard.

        He knows that after the election he will be hounded further and more rot will appear.

        he has lost his “brighter future” Eh!

        • weka 14.1.1.1

          I agree, even if he wins after Sat he’s not going to have an easy term.

          • McFlock 14.1.1.1.1

            nah – he’ll quite as soon as he can after the election, I reckon.

            • weka 14.1.1.1.1.1

              wouldn’t surprise me. not sure how he would do that though. “Ok, so I’m outta here” *smiles and waves*.

              • McFlock

                well, if he loses he’ll quit on the night, otherwise I reckon putting together a coalition and then plugging personal reasons, hanging around to watch the cabinet shitfight that will determine who catches the golden turd. First half of next year maybe. I doubt he’d see close to 2016 as pm

      • Beryl Streep 14.1.2

        >No, ‘most’ people are thinking “Gosh, I like that nice man Mr Key”.

        Wasn’t that the excuse du jour for National winning the election six years ago?

        I was hoping that people had moved on from blaming the voters after all these years. Nope, here we are six years later and it’s groundhog day again.

    • I guess you prefer the guy who (a) thinks it reasonable to suppose that the moon landings were faked; and (b) doesn’t possess enough nous to stop himself from declaring this belief in public, despite seeking elected office.

  15. Blue 15

    Act have decided they won’t work with NZ First:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11326574

    Looks like Craig’s Crazies are moving into pole position.

    A lot is going to depend on Epsom, Ohariu, and whether NZ First and the Conservatives make it over the 5% threshold.

    This election certainly isn’t going to be boring.

    • Lanthanide 15.1

      He added that most current polling — the majority of which has Act at less than 1 per cent — was wrong.

      “On some Chinese website polls Act is in second place, ahead of Labour. We’ve used the internet to poll and so we know that the landline polls are wrong, as all the landline polls are different and the differences are greater than the margin of error.

      “Act’s polling shows that 11 per cent of New Zealanders supports Act’s message of low-tax, less regulation and more personal responsibility.”

      Hahaha.

  16. Vaughan little 16

    lanthanide: in 2011 anybody could vote early. this time round there might be changes in publicity and number of early polling stations. you’d have to ask someone who campaigned in both elections. also it might be taking a few elections for the voting culture to change.

    • Lanthanide 16.1

      As I understand it, you had to have a “reason why you couldn’t vote on election day” to vote early in 2011. Of course it’s not like you have to provide concrete proof about it, but the point was early voting was somewhat discouraged. This time, it is actively encouraged.

  17. North 17

    ‘Dewey v Truman’ has occupied my mind frequently of late. In the old days of 1948 the Chicago whatever it was called newspaper had its type press all prepared to yell out “Dewey Wins”. In fact I think they even published. No. Truman won.

    The position in New Zealand at least for the past six years has been that the MSM has unabashedly danced its John Key dance. Answering their own fragile vanities essentially. Slavishly hitching their wagons to their notion of the brightest star. In measure a star of their creation. That has had its consequence……polls etc.

    This is a very different election however…….probably unprecedented in New Zealand history. Don’t be surprised if there’s a ‘Dewey v Truman’ outcome.

    Final point……what monstrous cheek for anyone to carry on about ‘foreign influence’ in this election. John Key’s government is entirely predicated on foreign influence. And he’s in its thrall. He is not ‘at the end of the day’ a New Zealander. He’s a New York banker. And we all know what lying, entitled, selfish, conniving aresholes they are.

    The extraordinary level of early voting can’t be for that, surely ?

    • ghostwhowalksnz 17.1

      The headline was Dewey Defeats Truman and went out in the 150,000 copies of the early edition before results came in from East coast ( different time zones).
      The second edition was changed to Democrats sweep statewide offices as it seemed the national results would be close.
      The polls had predicted Gov Dewey would win and the Chicago Tribune was an arch conservative paper, so fitted their preconceived ideas.

      No one would have remembered one edition of the paper, except 2 days later Truman was handed a copy in St Louis, and photographers got the famous picture.
      The details are from the CT website.

    • Local Kiwi 17.2

      Brilliant North,
      “MSM has unabashedly danced its John Key dance. Answering their own fragile vanities essentially. Slavishly hitching their wagons to their notion of the brightest star. In measure a star of their creation.”

      That has had its consequence……polls etc.

      that was extremely delicious to read.

      You have a great command of oratory speech.

      They should have used you for crafting David Cunliffe’s speeches.

      Great work North.

  18. vto 18

    On the day Key announced Sept 20 as election day I said watch for stormy September and lookey at what we gonna get (most places) ………

    better hope voters like getting wet and cold ..

  19. GRiM 19

    Well this just blows Nat’s foreign interferrence talking point to pieces:

    http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/national/australian-liberals-weigh-into-nz-election/story-fnjbnvyj-1227061187532

    snippet:
    AUSTRALIA’S Liberal Party federal director Brian Loughnane has become involved in the New Zealand election, encouraging Kiwis in Australia to help re-elect John Key’s National government,…………

    More than 640,000 New Zealand citizens are in Australia, representing a large proportion of the NZ electorate.

  20. Ad 20

    Well it’s not boring is it?

  21. Leroy 21

    If you look back at an analyse the polls since 2002 they have been getting less and less accurate. They were pretty much bang on in 2002, out by 2% for both major parties in 2005, out by 3-4% in 2008 and by 5-7% in 2011.

    The Roy Morgan one you quote Mickey was the last one RM did 2-3 days before the 2011 election. I assume they will put another one out this Friday & that is the one that had National on 49.5 in 2011, but also had Labour at 23.5. You should really compare today’s Roy Morgan poll, which was for the period 1-14 Sep with the second to last one they did in 2011, which was for the period 7-18 November.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2011

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2014

    The results are:

    Labour
    RM 2011 – 24.5
    RM 2014 – 24

    Greens
    RM 2011 – 13
    RM 2014 – 13.5

    Internet Mana
    RM 2011- 1
    RM 2014 – 1

    Left
    RM 2011 – 38.5
    RM 2014 – 38.5

    NZ first
    RM 2011 – 3
    RM 2014 – 8

    National
    RM 2011 – 53
    RM 2014 – 46.5

    Act
    RM 2011 – 1.5
    RM 2014 – 0.5

    MP
    RM 2011 – 3
    RM 201 – 1.5

    UF
    RM 2011 – 0
    RM 2014 – 0.5

    Conservatives
    RM 2011 – 0
    RM 2014 – 3.5

    Now, If you average every single poll of the main 5 (Fairfax, Herald, Colmar Brunton, Reid Research & Roy Morgan) since the 2011 election until now you get the following below. I’ve also included in brackets if the same drop/increase on election night occurred this year that did in 2011 then that its most likely what the part would get this year.

    Labour 30.65 (27.26)
    Greens 12.18 (14.93)
    Internet Mana 2.05 (2.49)
    Left 44.88 (44.68)

    National 47.10 (41.77 – this would still be the 3rd highest result a party has ever got, higher then Labour has ever achieved)
    ACT .50
    UF .30
    MP 1.35 (0.55)
    Conservatives 1.80 (3.21)
    Right 51.05 (46.33)

    So if you exclude Conservatives as they have not hot the 5%, then the right reduce to 43.12 vs. left on 44.68.

    As a political scientist the two key stats (excuse the pun) are:

    1. Left vs Right
    If you average every single poll of the main 5 (Fairfax, Herald, Colmar Brunton, Reid Research & Roy Morgan) from 2005-2008 it had the left averaging 43.5 and final results were 41.62. The right in 2005-2008 averaged 52.2 and got 51.84
    If you look at 2008-2011, the left averaged 39.82 and they got 39.62. From 2008-2011, the right averaged 58.23 and got 52.85.
    As at today, the ave in every singe poll for the right (includes conservatives) is 51.05 and the left is 44.88 – in other words, the gap in the polls has reduced from 18.41 to in the 2011 election to 6.17.

    2. Labour plus Greens vs National
    If you average every single poll of the main 5 (Fairfax, Herald, Colmar Brunton, Reid Research & Roy Morgan) from 2005-2008 it had the L&G averaging 43.2 and final results were 40.71. National in 2005-2008 averaged 47.72 and got 44.93
    If you look at 2008-2011, L&G averaged 39.18 and they got 38.54. National 2008-2011, averaged 52.64 and got 47.3.
    As at today, the ave in every singe poll for L&G is 43.09 and National 47.10. In other words, the aver gap of the polls between L&G vs National is now 4.01 vs. 13.46 in 2008-2011.

    Lastly,if Conservatives do get in, Nats & the 5 headed monster will be on 59/60 so will still need nz first.

    My pick – voter turnout about 80% and L, G & NZ First to goven and one of the most popular PMs NZ has had will not get 3 terms (note, every National PM since 1950 has got 3 terms).

  22. Sanctuary 22

    I think it is incredible that opinion polls continued to be released after early voting commenced, given how heavy early voting has been. It is something that is to have to be addressed after this election.

    Personally, if we had spent the last two weeks without any polls I wouldn’t have minded.

    • vto 22.1

      Agree. Polls need to be banned before an election. It is about the only thing I agree with Winston Peters on … speaking of which I hold little hope of the next government being stable with that cretin in there. He will fuck it up just like he always has in the past

      • wtl 22.1.1

        I just heard Guyon Espiner on the RadioNZ interviewing a polling ‘expert’. It was a particular bad interview in my opinion because Espiner seemed asking rather leading questions – Espiner was saying that the polls are largely right and asking the interviewee to agree with him.

        Whatever you think about the polls or their accuracy, I thought it was a particular irresponsible interview to do two days out from election day because the underlying subtext is that the result is already determined (as shown by the polls) so it doesn’t matter if you vote or not. It would have been much better for the interview to have ended with a note telling everyone they must vote because whatever the polls say, only the actual election matters in the end.

  23. wtl 23

    I think that if even if National manages to hobble together a coalition with the Conservatives, there is a very distinct possibility that the government will not last the full term – whatever you think about the policies of the Conservatives, having a party with no previous experience (even in parliament) being part of government is not a good idea.

  24. aerobubble 24

    So let’s see. We have all these apps, gps, and people. So can people with an app stop other people in the street, ask them who they are favoring in their electorate and which on the party list? Collate all that data and we would not rely on the phone bias, and the people can poll themselves! Maybe even explain why voting the same party and politician can be half a vote, as the party percentage creeps up and loses effectiveness when the electorate is won. How stupid is that? That you vote Labour in both electorate and party, then you find that say a independent wins the electorate and you get twice the representation! Greens get this, they vote Labour or National in the electorate and get an extra MP in the Green Party list.

    Labour used to understand this, they had the progressive party to counter the ACT.

  25. Chooky 25

    ‘Final prediction on election result 2014’

    By Martyn Bradbury / September 18, 2014

    “Despite the mainstream media polls that have screamed National will win by a 50% landslide for 3 years, this election was always going to go right down to the wire, and it will…

    – See more at: http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2014/09/18/final-prediction-on-election-result-2014/#sthash.yUG7Tmci.dpuf

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • The Greens should not support tyranny
    Last week, the government introduced an odious bill to allow it to apply "control orders" - effectively a bail regime - on suspected terrorists entering New Zealand, without the need for prosecution or evidence. But National refused to support it (because, naturally, it wasn't tyrannical enough), meaning the bill looked ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 hour ago
  • Climate Change: Chickening out on agriculture
    As expected, the government has chickened out on agricultural emissions. Given the option to put farmers in the ETS and make them properly pay for their pollution like the rest of us, they have instead decided to threaten them with it, in the hope that this will cause climate-change denying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 hours ago
  • The persecution of feminist folk singer and activist Thistle Petterson
    Some of us at Redline are part of a Marxist and anarchist gender-critical e-group that consists of activists in several countries – trade unionists, women’s liberation activists, gay and straight, male and female.  Through this we became aware of the case outlined below.  Thanks to Thistle for writing this for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 hours ago
  • Close Tiwai Point
    Tiwai Point's electricity contract is up for renewal. And as usual, they're sticking their hand out, demanding a government subsidy, and threatening to close if they don't get one:The owners of the aluminium smelter said on Wednesday that there were seeking talks with the Government amid a strategic review which ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    18 hours ago
  • How volcanoes influence climate and how their emissions compare to what we produce
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz Everyone is going on about reducing our carbon footprint, zero ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    20 hours ago
  • ACT: Backed by Nazis
    So, it turns out that the ACT Party - which previously called itself "the liberal party" - is financed by Nazis:ACT Party leader David Seymour says his party will not return a donation from Mike Allen, a Christchurch businessman who sells mock "Make America Great Again" hats to fund advertising ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    21 hours ago
  • Counting Barretts
    Just in case you don’t have a seven-year-old boy in your house (in which case this will be obvious) a well-known brand of breakfast cereal here in NZ is currently coming with All-Blacks stats cards. Perfect for finding out your favourite rugby player’s height, number of caps, and how much ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    21 hours ago
  • Bullying their critics
    Over the past month we've heard some horrific stories about bullying in the police. The police's response? Try to bully people into silence:The police have told a whistleblower to retract his statements to RNZ about being bullied or face legal action. The demand came just hours after Police Commissioner Mike ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 5
    Today is a Member's Day, which should see the final part of the committee stage of David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill. The big question today is the referendum clause: will it be necessary, or can the bill pass without it? While the majorities for his amendments during the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago
  • There is no ‘gendered brain’
    One of the key arguments used by trans ideologists is that some male-bodied people (ie men) are women because they ‘feel’ they are women.  To make this hocus-pocus sound a bit more credible, some will argue that such men have a ‘female brain’.  But this is thoroughly anti-scientific too. . ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 day ago
  • Canada’s electoral system is broken
    Canadians went to the polls today in parliamentary elections, and appear to have re-elected blackface wearer Justin Trudeau. Unfortunately, they use first-past-the-post, and they've provided a perfect demonstration of how unfair this system is:PartySeats% Seats% VoteLiberal15746.4%33.1%Conservative12135.8%34.4%Bloc Québécois329.5%7.7%New Democratic Party247.1%15.9%Green Party30.9%6.5%Other10.3%2.4% [Results from Elections Canada] Yes, the Liberals got fewer votes ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Measles: the quackery that is homeopathic “vaccination”
    A few days ago, a friend sent me a link to a health-related FB page that had published a post from a homeopathist, offering homeopathic “vaccination”¹ against measles (using something called a “Morbillinum nosode” at a “potency” of 200C, which I’ll explain shortly). I followed the link, left a comment ...
    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
    2 days ago
  • Colombia: 20th anniversary of La Gabarra massacre
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh This year marks the 20th anniversary of the La Gabarra massacre. The community organised an event to remember the most well-known of the horrendous heart-breaking events that befell the communities of this area of the municipality of Tibú: the massacre carried out on August 21st 1999. ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 days ago
  • A prediction
    There was another police chase in Christchurch this morning, resulting in a crash which killed one person and injured five more. Because someone died, the chase is being investigated by the Independent Police Conduct Authority. And based on previous reports by the IPCA, we know how it will go: the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Climate Change: The Zero Carbon Bill
    Just a month ago we saw the biggest protest in a generation as people marched to demand stronger action on climate change. A core demand of the protesters was to strengthen the Zero Carbon Bill's target to net-zero by 2040. So what is the government's response? Judging by the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Zombie ants, updated
    Back in 2010, I wrote about the strange tale of the zombie ants, which do the bidding of their fungal overlords. (They’re not an isolated example; a range of parasites change their hosts’ behaviour. See here and here for example – though as you’ll find, the toxoplasmosis story may be ...
    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
    2 days ago
  • Paying For Our Pakeha “Guilt” And “Privilege”.
    Shouldn't That Be: "Wrong White Crowd"? Rather than apportion guilt, would it not have been wiser for the makers of Land Of The Long White Cloud to accept that the Pakeha of 2019 are not – and never will be – “Europeans”? Just as contemporary Maori are not – and ...
    2 days ago
  • A Bodyguard of Truths.
    One, Two, Many Truths: With the collapse of “actually existing socialism” in 1991, the universities of the West found themselves saddled with a new mission. With their ideological competitors now soundly defeated they were no longer required to demonstrate the superiority of capitalist values. Their job now was to cement ...
    2 days ago
  • A call to unionists
    by the Council of Disobedient Women   We call on the Council of Trade Unions to show some fortitude and take a stand with your sisters. Unionists know that there is a material world, otherwise workers could simply identify out of poverty. They could declare themselves Well Paid. Why stop ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    3 days ago
  • Sophistry and bullshit
    I spent some time reading the Regulatory Impact Statement and Bill of Rights Act advice for the government's odious control order scheme today. I am not impressed with either of them. Starting with the RIS, it is built on some pretty questionable assumptions. For example:Unless individuals have been convicted of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • I’m so fly, I’m #NoFly!
    #NoFly: Walking the talk on climate change, by Shaun Hendy. BWB Texts, 2019. Reviewed by Robert McLachlan In June 2018, Swede Maja Rosén founded We stay on the ground with a pledge not to fly in 2019, and a goal of persuading 100,000 other Swedes to join her. In August, ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    3 days ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Punishing the young
    We all know that NZ First is a party of and for old people who hate the young. But they've topped their previous pedophobia with a proposal that all young people be forced to do 100 hours community work:NZ First wants all young people to do 100 hours of community ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Journalism, clickbait, & ideas of classical beauty – but not science
    A couple days ago the NZ Herald published a story with the headline, “Science says Bella Hadid is world’s most beautiful woman“, and followed up with the ridiculous statement that Supermodel Bella Hadid has been declared as the world’s most beautiful woman following a scientific study into what constitutes as ...
    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
    3 days ago
  • Is Simon’s Smile Sustainable?
    A Sustainable Proposition: With as much as 18 percent of the electorate declaring itself “undecided” about who to vote for, there is obviously plenty of space for a party like former Green Party member, Vernon Tava's, about-to-be-launched "Sustainable NZ Party" to move into. The most hospitable political territory for such ...
    3 days ago
  • What the actual Hell?
    Keir Starmer has hinted that Labour might vote in favour of the Johnson government's shoddy deal, with the proviso that a second referendum is attached:Speaking to BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show, he said: “We will see what that looks like but it makes sense to say that by whatever ...
    3 days ago
  • Hard News: Dealer’s Choice, an oral history from Planet 1994
    In 1994, I was the editor for an issue of Planet magazine focused on cannabis, its culture and the prospects for the end of its prohibition. Part of that issue was an interview with 'Ringo', an experienced cannabis dealer.I recently posted my essay from that issue, and I figured it ...
    5 days ago
  • The invasion of women’s sports by men: some facts
    Dr Helen Waite, sports sociologist and former elite athlete, on the invasion of women’s sport by men and the anti-scientific and misogynist ideology used to rationalise it.   ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    5 days ago
  • Remainers starting to sound like fascists
    As Brexit comes to a grisly conclusion (perhaps) people on all sides are saying intemperate and uwise things.  Some, like the Daly Mail, have been doing it for years.People as normally level headed as Jon Lansman are calling for automatic deselection of MPs who vote against a (likely) Labour three ...
    5 days ago
  • Labour MPs supporting Johnson’s turd-sandwich deal?
    I find this unbelievable:
    I've got one source saying more Labour MPs than expected are mulling whether to vote for the deal - including names who were not on the letter to Juncker and Tusk— Emilio Casalicchio (@e_casalicchio) 17 October 2019 I've compiled a list of possible reasons why Labour ...
    6 days ago
  • Why do we need control orders again?
    On Wednesday, the government was loudly telling us that it needed to legislate to allow it to impose "control orders" - effectively a parole regime, but imposed without charge, prosecution, conviction or real evidence - on suspected terrorists because they couldn't be prosecuted for their supposed crimes. Today, it turns ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Bullshitting the Minister
    On Monday, the Hit and Run inquiry heard from NZDF's former director of special operations, who claimed that the defence Minister knew everything about the Operation Burnham raid. Today, the inquiry heard from that (former) Minister - and it turns out that he didn't know nearly as much as NZDF ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Speaker: Extinction Rebellion is not a cult (but ecstasy for the people)
    Yoga gurus and cult leaders – I’ve seen a few. Two weeks ago, I unknowingly joined an alleged new-age cult at the Kāpiti coast, together with a giant kraken and some neatly dressed pensioners who would make any book club proud.They were among the two hundred people of all ages ...
    6 days ago
  • We need to bring the police under control
    The last decade has seen a trend of increasing weapons availability to police. Assault rifles. Tasers on every hip. Guns in cars. And following the march 15 massacre, pistols on every hip, all over the country. At the same time, its also seen an increase in the abuse of force: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • If you can’t measure it, does it exist?
    In the last couple of weeks, I’ve been busy preparing for our summer paper on Science Communication. Looking for something amusing about ‘risk’ in science, I came across this neat xkcd.com cartoon about why so many people come knocking on my door (or phoning me, or emailing me) desperately wanting ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    6 days ago
  • Swinson’s swithering
    Jo Swinson is doing even worse at this Being Sensible lark that I'd thought.  I've just become aware of the following utterance
    .@KayBurley presses Lib Dem leader @joswinson on whether she would agree to a #Brexit deal 'no matter how bad a deal it is' as long as it had ...
    7 days ago
  • Women’s rights, trans ideology and Gramsci’s morbid symptoms
    by John Edmundson The International Socialist Organisation (ISO) have recently reposted a February article, by Romany Tasker-Poland, explaining ISO’s position in the “trans rights” debate.  It is available on their website and on their Facebook Page.  The article sets out to explain why “socialists support trans rights”.  It reads more ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    7 days ago
  • We need to take guns off police
    Today's IPCA report of police criminality: a police officer unalwfully tasered a fleeing suspect who posed no threat to anyone:The police watchdog has found an officer unlawfully tasered an Auckland man who broke his ankle jumping off a balcony to escape arrest. [...] To avoid arrest, the man jumped over ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • “Bringing kindness back”
    "Auckland City Mission: 10% of Kiwis experiencing food insecurity", RNZ, 16 October 2019:About half a million people are experiencing food insecurity, according to new research from the Auckland City Mission. Food insecurity, or food poverty, is defined as not having enough appropriate food. The City Mission said over the last ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Press Release: “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance b...
    Media Statement for Immediate Release 16th October 2019 “Fake News” from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers Despite comments from Auckland City Council CCOs Board Chairs re pay and performance bonuses for top managers—Herald Newspaper Tuesday Oct 15th–there is very little evidence ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    1 week ago
  • Ever-So-Slightly Bonkers: Simon Bridges Plays To His Base.
    Would You Buy A Used Propaganda Video From This Man? Bridges and the National Party’s strategists have discovered that the ideas and attitudes considered acceptable by today’s editors and journalists are no longer enforceable. The rise and rise of the Internet and the social media platforms it spawned means that ...
    1 week ago
  • Asking for food
    There is plenty of evidence of the way the business mentality has permeated every level of society since the recrudescence of market liberalism 35 years ago. You only need to think of how citizens in need of help from their government, their state, their country, are now routinely described as ...
    Opposable ThumbBy Unknown
    1 week ago
  • Forty years of change in the jobs Kiwi do and the places they call home
    John MacCormick Over the last 40 years, New Zealanders – and people in other countries – have experienced big changes in the jobs they do and where they live and work. These changes include: a decline in manufacturing jobs an increase in jobs in ‘information-intensive’ industries (which are better paid ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Protecting Fresh Waterways in Aotearoa/NZ: The Strong Public Health Case
    Nick Wilson, Leah Grout, Mereana Wilson, Anja Mizdrak, Phil Shoemack, Michael Baker Protecting waterways has the benefits of: (1) protecting water from hazardous microbes; (2) minimising cancer risk and other problems from nitrates in water; (3) avoiding algal blooms that are hazardous to health; (4) protecting mahinga kai uses (cultural ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • Massey University triggered to rebrand
    by The Council of Disobedient Women In a press release today Massey University announced it has decided to rebrand and reorientate after struggling to be a University for grown-ups. For some time the University has wanted to be a safe play space for wee-woke-misogynists who have been really badly triggered ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Swinson backing calls for a second referendum (again)
    After a brief dalliance with 'hard Revoke' it looks like the Lib Dems are changing ground on on Brexit, with leader Jo Swinson reverting to calling for a second referendum on Johnson's deal.The party has tabled an amendment to the Queen’s speech requesting that any deal brought back from Brussels ...
    1 week ago
  • An odious bill
    The government has decided that someone has done Something Bad. But despite their belief, there seems to be no evidence that they have actually broken the law. So the government's solution is to pass a retrospective law allowing them to be punished anyway, on a lower standard of proof. If ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • National is now the party of climate arson
    So, Judith Collins has done a Facebook rant about climate change, peddling the same shit National has been shovelling for the past twenty years: the impacts are overstated, there's no need to do anything about it, and its too hard anyway (oh, and its so unfair that people who peddle ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The environmental footprint of electric versus fossil car
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz There is a lot of discussion on the benefits of ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • “Manifest” by Andrew Bird – A Song For The Times.
    I came across this song quite by accident. If it isn't one of Greta Thunberg's favourites - it should be.Video courtesy of YouTube.This post is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    1 week ago
  • Passing the buck
    Last month, NZDF's shoddy coverup of what it knew about civilian casualties in Operation Burnham began to fall apart, with the revelation that a report on the matter, which NZDF claimed not to have, had been sitting in an NZDF safe for the past nine years. Yesterday, the man responsible ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • India a major player in Earth observation satellites
    While many imagine that countries like the USA and Europe dominate space activities, in fact India is now a major player on this stage. It launches satellites for its own purposes and also commercially, and has constellations orbiting our planet and returning data of vital importance to that nation in ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    1 week ago
  • The rot at the top (2).
    Thanks to a report from the Acting Inspector General of Intelligence and Security following a complaint by Nicky Hager, we have come to find out that the SIS illegally spied on Mr. Hager on behalf of the NZDF after publication of Hager’s 2011 book, Other People’s Wars. The NZDF justified ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Common misconceptions about “Global Warming”
    COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate. FACT: The HadCRUT3 surface temperature index, produced by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    1 week ago
  • A climate of tyranny
    For the past week, Extinction Rebellion has been peacefully protesting in London to demand action on climate change. The British government's response? Ban their protests:Police have banned Extinction Rebellion protests from continuing anywhere in London, as they moved in almost without warning to clear protesters who remained at the movement’s ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Collins crushes climate
    An essay by Judith Collins MP reported on Carbon News yesterday seems to show an alarming shift in attitude within the National Party. Collins argues against the Zero Carbon Bill, the Paris Agreement, and downplays the magnitude of climate impacts. The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015 and ratified ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    1 week ago
  • More disappointment
    When they were running for election, Labour promised to overhaul the Employment Relations Act and introduce fair pay agreements to set basic pay and conditions on an industry level, preventing bad employers from undercutting good ones. They followed this up by establishing a working group, which reported back in January ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • What do these mother-child studies really say about fluoridation?
    A list of indicators of bad science – many of these are found in articles promoted by anti-fluoride activists. Anti-fluoride activists have been pouring money into a scaremongering campaign warning pregnant women not to drink fluoridated water. They claim fluoride will lower the IQ of their future child. Fluoride ...
    1 week ago
  • Losing Labour’s Mills-Tone.
    Nothing Left To Say: Labour's pollster, Stephen Mills, remains swaddled-up in the comforting myths of the 1980s. As if the experience of Roger Douglas’s genuinely radical post-Muldoon policy agenda was literally a once-in-a-lifetime thing – as much as the party could possibly absorb for at least the next 50 years.MEMO ...
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Disability and the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse
    The Royal Commission on abuse in care is very significant for the disability community. For many decades last century, thousands of disabled children, and adults who managed to survive, were locked away from families and communities. This was not for anything they had done, but for the perceived threat their ...
    1 week ago
  • Spain is not a democracy
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • UK Conservatives hate democracy
    With an unfair voting system, uneven electorates and an un-elected upper house, the UK's "democracy" is barely worthy of the name. But now the government wants to make it worse:The government has been accused of suppressing voters’ rights with the potential disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of people after plans ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • What is wrong with our building industry?
    Back in the 90's and early 2000's, the building industry was building leaky homes which should never have been granted consent. Now it turns out they've been building dodgy office blocks as well:New imaging technology has revealed hundreds of major buildings nationwide have defective or missing concrete or reinforcing steel. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Local bodies
    Local body election results were released over the weekend, to joy or despair depending on where you live. In Auckland, Phil Goff trounced John Tamihere, who is muttering darkly about running for Parliament again (but which party would want him?) Wellington is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Weta Workshop, except ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A future of government
      How could government evolve over the next decades? Reports of democracy’s imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.  However, satisfaction with political systems in many countries is low, so there is much to do for governments of all political stripes to improve relevance and trust. Digital technologies are seen as one ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    2 weeks ago
  • Speaker: Catalonia, interrupted
    Two years have now gone by since the Friday afternoon when my university-student son and I headed out of our Barcelona flat to a nearby primary school, designated as a polling station for the vote that was to be held the following Sunday: the referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Sage Decisions Unwisely Over-Ruled.
    Overruled: The joint decision of Finance Minister, Grant Robertson (Labour) and his Associate Minister, David Parker (Labour) arguably the two most powerful ministers in Jacinda Ardern’s government, to grant OceanaGold the consents which Land Information Minister, Eugenie Sage (Greens) had earlier denied them, offers bitter proof of how hard fighting ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government may ban voting in effort to get more people to do it
    More than double the number of people who will vote in this year’s local body elections have tried marijuana or urinated somewhere they shouldn’t have. As local elections look set for the lowest turnout in decades, with many regions falling well short of 40%, the Government is exploring a number ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Woman: Deleted.
    A Statement on Abortion Law Reform by the Council of Disobedient Women   On the eve of bringing an end to antiquated, anti-women abortion laws Green MP Jan Logie intends to write women out of the Bill. With a stroke of the pen, the woke are aiming for total erasure ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • The Hollowest of Men Ride Again… SURPRISE!
    Musings continue apace about “the experienced businessman!” soon to be taking up a National Party MP position. Or to be more accurate, being parachuted into a seat to shut down their former MP Jamie-Lee Ross, who despite his own shortcomings shed at least some more light on the inner workings ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 weeks ago
  • Barbaric
    The Ugandan government wants to murder gay people:Uganda has announced plans to impose the death penalty on homosexuals. The bill, colloquially known as “Kill the Gays” in Uganda, was nullified five years ago on a technicality, but the government said on Thursday it plans to resurrect it within weeks. The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Is this study legit? 5 questions to ask when reading news stories of medical research
    Hassan Vally, La Trobe University Who doesn’t want to know if drinking that second or third cup of coffee a day will improve your memory, or if sleeping too much increases your risk of a heart attack? We’re invested in staying healthy and many of us are interested in reading ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • Fighting Monsters.
    Freedom Of Speech? The Säuberung (cleansing by fire) was the work of the German Student Union which, on 10 May 1933, under the watchful eye of the Nazi Reichminister for Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels, consigned 25,000 books to the flames in a ritual exorcism of “un-German thought”. According to the logic of the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The next wave of kaupapa Māori politics: its constitutional, it must be.
      “There can be no such thing as kaupapa Māori political parties or politics in Aotearoa” (Willie Jackson, Labour Party (2017). Māori TV, General/List Election Special) I begin with that claim because at the time, I was confounded at first that it fell out of Willie Jackson’s mouth, and then ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Night lights of NZ from orbit
    New Zealand has prided itself for decades with regard to its lack of pollution, and all will be aware that the ‘100% Pure New Zealand‘ meme is under threat through land, water and air pollution of various causes. There is another type of contamination that the country also faces: light ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    2 weeks ago

  • Government to progress Control Orders for community safety
    The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill will have its first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Andrew Little says. “The control orders Bill will mean our community is better protected from the risks of the very small number of New Zealand citizens who have engaged in terrorism related activities overseas. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • World-first plan for farmers to reduce emissions
    The Government and farming sector leaders have agreed to a world-first partnership to reduce primary sector emissions in one of the most significant developments on climate action in New Zealand's history. Today farming leaders and the Government announced a plan to join forces to develop practical and cost-effective ways to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • More homes where they are needed
    More houses for homeless New Zealanders are being opened today in Tauranga by Associate Housing Minister Kris Faafoi. Six 2-bedroom quality units are being opened at 878 Cameron Road by Minister Faafoi and Accessible Properties, a local Community Housing Provider (CHP). Accessible Properties now provides more than 1,700 community housing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Minister of Finance and Sport and Recreation to visit Japan and Vietnam
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson departs tomorrow for events and meetings in Japan and Vietnam.  While in Japan, he will discuss economic and fiscal issues including meeting with the Minister of Finance, Taro Aso, and Minister of Economic and Fiscal Policy, Yasutoshi Nishimura. He will meet with the Minister of Education, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • Dashboard tracks housing progress
    The Government’s Housing Dashboard released today confirms record numbers of state houses are under construction and shows the Government build programme is gaining momentum.  “After nine years of inaction, and a hands-off attitude from the previous government we’re starting to see things move in the right direction for housing,” says ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Ministerial Statement on the International Convention Centre fire
    Mr Speaker, I wish to make a ministerial statement relating to the Auckland fire. The Government is closely monitoring the situation with the fire at the NZ International Convention Centre and is thankful that everyone is now safe. Firefighters are doing an incredible job managing the fire and bringing it ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Government invests in Te Reo, environmental data research
    The Government is investing in ambitious research that will digitise Te Reo, grow the low-carbon protein efficient aquaculture industry, help interpret environmental trends, and large data sets says Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods. The four projects range from teaching Siri to speak Te Reo to crunching large environmental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Government announces next steps as part of a comprehensive plan to fix skills gap
    A new education-to-employment brokerage service to strengthen connections between local employers and schools. Funding for more trades focused ‘speed-dating’ events to connect schools with employers. Promotional campaign to raise profile of vocational education. The Government is taking action to increase the number of young people taking up vocational education and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Corrections Amendment Bill passes third reading
    A Bill to improve prison security and ensure the fair, safe, and humane treatment of people in prison while upholding public safety has passed its third reading. Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says the Corrections Amendment Bill makes a number of changes to ensure the Corrections Act 2004 is fit for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Ngāi Tahu CEO appointed to NZ-China Council
    Minister for Māori Development, Nanaia Mahuta, has selected Arihia Bennett MNZM, Chief Executive Officer of Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu, as the Te Puni Kōkiri appointed representative on the New Zealand-China Council. The New Zealand-China Council (the Council) was established in 2012 as a New Zealand led and funded organisation ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Southern Response claims move to EQC
    Responsibility for processing the small number of Southern Response claims still to be settled will be transferred to EQC by the end of the year. “As claim numbers reduce, it no longer makes sense for the Crown to have two organisations processing the remaining Canterbury claims,” Grant Robertson says. “Since ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Bowel screening starts in Whanganui
    Health Minister David Clark is encouraging Whanganui residents to take up the opportunity for free bowel screening, which can detect cancer early when it’s easier to treat.   Over the next two years 12,000 Whanganui locals, aged 60 to 74 will be invited to participate in the National Bowel Screening ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Pacific Peoples Minister to attend Our Ocean Conference in Norway
    Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio, heads to Oslo today to represent New Zealand at the sixth Our Ocean Conference, which is being hosted by the Norwegian Government from the 23-24 October. “The Our Ocean Conference mobilises real action on issues like marine plastic pollution and the impacts of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government announces 27 percent increase in Trades Academy places
    Two secondary-school initiatives are being expanded as part of the Government’s plan to see more young New Zealanders take up a trade to help close the skills gap.   This includes the largest single increase in Trades Academy places in recent years. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Education Minister Chris ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures Conference: Connection...
    Session 4: Pacific Connectivity – Youth, Media and New Opportunities   Kia ora tatou katoa and Warm Pacific greetings to one and all. Representatives of Tainui, the local people of the land, or manawhenua – the indigenous peoples of this area – have welcomed you this morning in accordance with ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Methane reducing cattle feed one step closer
    The Government today announced its support for a project that could substantially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. The announcement was made as part of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s visit to Nelson’s Cawthron Aquaculture Park. The Cawthron Institute will receive $100,000 from the Government’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Bill to refresh superannuation system passes first reading
    Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government announces next steps in fight against measles
    Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School.   The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures: Connections, Identity...
    ***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Police trial new response to high risk events
    Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New awards celebrate fisheries sustainability
    The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • More progress for women and we can do more
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Proposals to curb environmental damage help our coasts and the oceans
    Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines.  The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic.    Environment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New mental health facility for Waikato
    The Government has approved funding for a new acute mental health facility for Waikato which will provide better care and support to people with mental health and addiction issues. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Dr David Clark announced the $100 million project to replace the aging Henry Rongomau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • 500 new te reo Māori champions in our classrooms
    The Government is making progress on its goal to integrate te reo Māori into education by 2025, with over 500 teachers and support staff already graduating from Te Ahu o te Reo Māori,  Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Kelvin Davis made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Waikanae today, for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister James Shaw welcomes 2018 Census first release
    Statistics Minister James Shaw has welcomed the first release of 2018 Census data. The first release of data today, 23 September, includes key data on population, regional growth, the number of homes and the size of different ethnic groups in New Zealand. Data from the 2018 Census will support the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Driving transparency, ethics and accountability in government use of algorithms
    Minister for Statistics James Shaw today announced a public consultation on a proposed algorithm charter for government agencies. The charter has been developed by the Government Chief Data Steward in response to growing calls for more transparency in government use of data. Computer algorithms – procedures or formulas for solving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand and the Netherlands working together on climate change
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and visiting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-hosted a business roundtable in Auckland this morning focused on working together to address climate change.  “The Netherlands is an important partner for New Zealand. We share a strong agricultural history. Sustainable agribusiness and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Protecting fairness for workers and businesses
    The Government is taking action to build an inclusive economy where more of us receive our fair share at work and businesses can compete on great products and services, not undercutting wages and conditions, Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. Two consultations launched today seek feedback ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Indigenous Freshwater Fish Bill Passes
    The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Kiwis to take part in world’s biggest earthquake drill
    At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Rising wages and low inflation supporting Kiwis
    Kiwis are benefiting from higher wage growth and low inflation under the Coalition Government. Stats NZ data out today shows the rise in the cost of living remains low, as annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.5% in September from 1.7% in June. “The low inflation comes as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ economy strong amid global headwinds
    New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Keeping New Zealanders safer with better counter-terrorism laws
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Improved succession and dispute resolution core of Ture Whenua changes
    A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to CTU Biennial Conference
    Let me first thank all the new unionists and members in the room. There is nothing more important to improving people’s working lives than people making the decision to care, to get on board and help, to take up the reins and get involved. Congratulations to you. You bring the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister ensures continued Whenuapai flight operations
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark has signed a certificate exempting the activity of engine testing at Whenuapai Airbase from the Resource Management Act 1991. The Act gives the Minister of Defence the power to exempt activities for the purposes of national security.  The certificate will mean the recent Environment Court ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ joins Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced New Zealand will join the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action while attending APEC meetings in Chile. The objective of the 39 member Coalition is to share information and promote action to tackle climate change. It was formed in April this year, in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Lyttelton Parking
    Feedback sought– Lyttelton commercial zone parking  The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal to remove on-site car parking requirements for new developments in the Lyttelton commercial zone.  The proposal, by Christchurch City Council, asks that powers under section 71 of the Greater ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Hagley Oval
    Hon Minister Poto Williams Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration   MEDIA STATEMENT       Tuesday 15 October 2019 Feedback sought – Hagley Oval The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal about Hagley Oval. The proposal was developed by Regenerate Christchurch ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago