Two polls are out today, a Roy Morgan and a 3news Reid Research. Both are predicting National to be well ahead of Labour although the figures are much closer than they were last time.
The RM poll has Labour (23.5%) and the Greens ((14.5%) slipping back and National up to 46.5%. In the equivalent RM poll last election National was on 49.5% and ended on 47.3%.
The Reid Research will make National’s eyes water. It had them down to 44.5%. Remember last time the equivalent RR poll overestimated National’s support by 3.5% points.
And last time RM underestimated Labour’s result by 4% points and RR by 1.5% points.
New Zealand First is strong in both polls and the Greens are doing well although both polls overestimated Green support last time.
Last time the turnout was down in part I am sure because everyone thought that it was a foregone conclusion. This time we have to make sure that everyone gets out to vote. I am sure that the polls under reports Labour’s support at the same time that I am sure that a low turnout hurts Labour’s support. The higher the turnout the greater the difference between Labour’s polling and Labour’s actual result.
It seems likely that New Zealand First will hold the balance of power. If the Conservatives get over 5% of the vote then it may be that Key will be able to cobble a coalition together and not depend on New Zealand First’s support. It will also be very scary. There are some distinctly weird people on the Conservative Party’s list and the thought of them being in Parliament is worrying.
This election will be won vote by vote. No matter if your preference is Labour or Green or Mana if you want to change the Government the best thing that you can do for your country is make sure that you get as many people as possible to vote.