As it stands right now with the indecisive election result, we’re probably going to have a caretaker government for some time. The election results happen after counting the special votes locally, from other countries, and from places like Antarctica and military missions. The election results are targeted to be declared on November 3rd. The last day for the writ is on November 9th.
This usually results in a few seats shifting between parties, and often appeals for judicial recounts. In the case of this election, also a by-election in Port Waikato on November 25th with official results on December 6th caused by the death of a candidate.
My emphasis on a indecisive result is because currently the potential NAct government based on previous statements by party leaders do not currently appear to have a clear majority of seats in parliament. There are possible seat changes from specials and probable parliamentary overhangs to 122 or maybe even 123 members. That affects all coalition arrangements.
Plus of course Winston Peters of NZ First, the most likely third party for a coalition, is well known to always want to know what cards he is holding before starting any serious coalition or support negotiations. Bearing in mind the rather obvious policy variations and antipathies between National, Act, and NZ First, coalition arrangements could be quite time consuming and have been in the past.
So we’re probably in a limbo for at least a few weeks and possibly quite a lot longer. The country will be running under a caretaker government from the previous parliament while coalition arrangements are hammered out to secure a reliable parliamentary majority.
Fortunately, caretaker governments haven’t been a problem politically after the devaluation events of 1984. It is unlikely to be this time as well.
The main effect will probably be on the timing of the next sitting of parliament with any legislative changes and when a mini-budget with any changes in fiscal policy can be voted on. That would obviously require a vote of confidence in the incoming government in parliament.
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