The mathematics of surveillance

Written By: - Date published: 10:30 am, January 22nd, 2015 - 30 comments
Categories: Abuse of power, International, Spying - Tags: , , , , ,

We are told that there is…

No alternative to bulk data collection

No existing technology can fully replace collecting data in bulk to obtain electronic intelligence, but some methods could be developed to improve how information is gathered and used, the US National Research Council said in a report on Thursday.

(See The Guardian for much more nuanced coverage of this report: “the panel did not specifically endorse any bulk collection conducted by the NSA on Americans’ phone records and international communications and foreigners’ emails, phone calls and internet searches”.)

Of course there is no alternative to bulk data collection if you define “electronic intelligence” as bulk data. But how useful is this “intelligence”?

However, a blue-ribbon panel set up by Obama following Snowden’s revelations reported it could find no evidence that sweeping collection of the telephone metadata of Americans led to a single major counter-terrorism breakthrough.

So it turns out that this “intelligence” isn’t useful for catching terrorists in practice. The following piece (which appeared in New Scientist following the Paris attacks) explains why:

Mass surveillance not effective for finding terrorists
…
Brothers Said and Cherif Kouachi and Amedy Coulibaly, who murdered 17 people, were known to the French security services and considered a serious threat. France has blanket electronic surveillance. It didn’t avert what happened.
…
Police, intelligence and security systems are imperfect. They process vast amounts of imperfect intelligence data and do not have the resources to monitor all known suspects 24/7. The French authorities lost track of these extremists long enough for them to carry out their murderous acts. You cannot fix any of this by treating the entire population as suspects and then engaging in suspicionless, blanket collection and processing of personal data.

Mass data collectors can dig deeply into anyone’s digital persona but don’t have the resources to do so with everyone. Surveillance of the entire population, the vast majority of whom are innocent, leads to the diversion of limited intelligence resources in pursuit of huge numbers of false leads. Terrorists are comparatively rare, so finding one is a needle in a haystack problem. You don’t make it easier by throwing more needleless hay on the stack.

It is statistically impossible for total population surveillance to be an effective tool for catching terrorists.

Even if your magic terrorist-catching machine has a false positive rate of 1 in 1000 – and no security technology comes anywhere near this – every time you asked it for suspects in the UK it would flag 60,000 innocent people.
…
Mass surveillance makes the job of the security services more difficult and the rest of us less secure.

The “statistically impossible” link above takes you to an analysis based on Bayes Theorem. Given any reasonable assumption of base rate (number of terrorists in the population) and misidentification rate (false positives) “domestic monitoring of everyone’s email and phone calls is useless for finding terrorists”. But it would be useful in contexts where the base rate is higher, so it would “very effective for domestic political intelligence”.

The Guardian weighs in:

The Guardian view on mass surveillance: missing the target

The pretext of Paris is being used to reheat the argument for ubiquitous snooping, shorn of the checks and balances that might achieve consent

The Paris gunmen had been on watchlists for years. Building up extra intelligence on all 66 million residents of France would not have helped; keeping an unflinching eye on the few thousands who provoke serious fears might have done. If the question were resources, the spies would deserve a fair hearing. But they seem more interested in the power to add hay to the stack, a perverse way to hunt the needle. For all the claims made for untargeted sifting, the sole “plot” that the US authorities can hold up as having been disrupted by it is a taxi driver’s payment of a few thousand dollars to al-Shabbab. Terrorists, from 9/11 to the Woolwich jihadists and the neo-Nazi Anders Breivik have almost always come to the authorities’ attention before murdering. Society can’t afford too many scruples about the privacy of those who provoke such suspicions.

But snooping on everybody shreds the implicit consent on which all effective government activity – including legitimately secret activity – must rest.

Mass surveillance cannot accomplish its stated goals. It is likely that many within the security / government system understand this full well. But mass surveillance is being pushed on us anyway. This means of course, that it is being used for unstated goals.

Late updates: similar piece here. Short version here.

30 comments on “The mathematics of surveillance ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. adam 1
    22 January 2015 at 10:49 am

    What unstated goal, FEAR?!?

  2. Colonial Rawshark 2
    22 January 2015 at 11:25 am

    Bill Binney and Jacob Appelbaum

    Binney is one of the NSA’s most senior ever whistleblowers. He developed many of the first concepts for surveillance of the internet and the world wide web (to keep up with the volume, velocity and variety of the data going across the web).

    He suggested systems and methods for maintaining the privacy of US citizens and preventing this problem of overwhelming, near-useless mass surveillance. For instance, all captured data would be encrypted and could only be decrypted for individuals one by one, on a court order. His proposals were turned down by the NSA.

    The whole idea is that when you are trying to find a terrorist needle in a haystack, the last thing you want to be doing is adding more irrelevant haystacks.

    Well worth watching.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s976iyaO39A

  3. Lanthanide 3
    22 January 2015 at 12:26 pm

    “France has blanket electronic surveillance. It didn’t avert what happened.”

    This is a tautology. If it had averted what happened, it wouldn’t have happened, and we wouldn’t have known that it was averted. How many other terrorist plots have been averted? Singling this one out and saying “see, I told you so!” is a stupid argument.

    “Mass surveillance makes the job of the security services more difficult and the rest of us less secure.”

    Where has anyone said that mass surveillance is used as the first piece of evidence for whether someone is a terrorist or not? It makes far more sense that it would be used *after* other evidence has been discovered. Something flags up that person X might be suspicious, so you dig into the records that you’ve been recording of person X for the last 4 years and see what they’ve been up to.

    • tracey 3.1
      22 January 2015 at 12:34 pm

      and in the example cited above you are proposing “digging” into over 60,000 individuals records… you better hope the ones you find of concern are at the early stages of their planning…

      In any event, that both Sydney and Paris’ murderers were known to the various authorities and they didn’t stop it, or couldn’t, why would being able to “dig into” over 60,000 innocents flagged, have made the difference?

      • Lanthanide 3.1.1
        22 January 2015 at 12:39 pm

        “and in the example cited above you are proposing “digging” into over 60,000 individuals records… you better hope the ones you find of concern are at the early stages of their planning…”

        No, i’m proposing precisely the opposite of that: you don’t do any “digging” at all until you have a suggestion from some other source that someone might be up to something naughty.

        • tracey 3.1.1.1
          22 January 2015 at 12:47 pm

          I think you over estimate how much common sense plays a part in our spy services. I suspect that the info, while not great for terrorists may be great for market data mining.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.2
      22 January 2015 at 1:19 pm

      Where has anyone said that mass surveillance is used as the first piece of evidence for whether someone is a terrorist or not? It makes far more sense that it would be used *after* other evidence has been discovered.

      That would make it targeted surveillance and not mass surveillance, i.e, someone comes to the authorities attention they then put in place surveillance on that person and, from there, others that have connection with that person. Coming to the attention of the authorities comes first. The problem is the mass surveillance that happens without any need or warrant to do so which then becomes the haystack with a needle in it.

      Something flags up that person X might be suspicious, so you dig into the records that you’ve been recording of person X for the last 4 years and see what they’ve been up to.

      There’s no need of that mass surveillance and it actually makes finding the criminals harder as there’s now so much more data to sift through.

    • Ross 3.3
      22 January 2015 at 1:55 pm

      ” …and we wouldn’t have known that it was averted.”

      Are you serious? The French government would have been broadcasting that result like a spasm. Note the number of cases that the NSA has averted through mass surveillance. ZERO. And we don’t have to “single” out this one. There is the nut job in Sydney, the cop killer in New York and the marathon bombings that just leap to mind as perfect examples of what mass surveillance doesn’t do. ALL of those people had flags all over them. They were known to be deranged and murderous and still it was useless.
      Mass surveillance is never about preventing crime and is always about control.

    • Stephanie Rodgers 3.4
      22 January 2015 at 11:07 pm

      This is a tautology. If it had averted what happened, it wouldn’t have happened, and we wouldn’t have known that it was averted.

      And in the kitchen we use a sieve until it lets a weevil through into the cake mix. That’s how we know the sieve isn’t working, and the number of weevils it stopped beforehand is completely irrelevant.

    • Murray Rawshark 3.5
      23 January 2015 at 3:00 am

      I didn’t think the article was that hard to understand.

      We get a fairly good idea of how many terrorist plots have been averted because such a fuss is made whenever an Arab is found with a plastic sword, or the FBI set up a sting on some microencephalic idiot. Given the bullshit they spread, I’d say basically none.

      We get to see their mistakes, and these often turn out to be people they knew about anyway. Mass surveillance is about protecting the wealth because they know the present system is unsustainable and will be shaken by riots and worse if things continue as they have been. They think they can set up a panopticon and keep us all under control. Labour wants to help them.

    • Pete George 3.6
      23 January 2015 at 6:43 am

      It’s obvious that all terrorist attacks can’t be prevented. But governments claim that they prevent some. Including the French government.

      French intelligence officials foiled several terrorist attacks in the weeks before the attack on the Charlie Hebdo magazine offices, French President Francois Hollande …

      In the past 18 months, French intelligence officials have prevented as many as five terror attacks from taking place in France, Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said

      http://mashable.com/2015/01/07/hollande-france-terror-plots-foiled/

      It’s impossible to know how many potential terrorists are deterred by security measures, or whether their actions are limited by security.

      We can’t prevent all attacks: EU anti-terror chief

      The EU’s counter-terrorism chief said Tuesday it is impossible to completely prevent new Islamist attacks like those in Paris, and warned that Europe’s prisons have become a “massive incubator” for radicalisation.

      Gilles de Kerchove told AFP that the Islamic State group and Al-Qaeda wanted to launch more attacks on the West…

      De Kerchove warned that the Al-Nusra Front, the Al-Qaeda branch in Syria, is also looking for “clean skins,” Europeans with valid passports and no record of radical activity, to mount attacks in Europe.

      http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/france-attacks.zg5

      They can’t have no security. They get severely criticised if their security fails to prevent attacks occasionally. So the pressure is on to prevent attacks, and a range of measures are necessary. Getting the balance between security and privacy right will always be difficult and imperfect.

      No surveillance is hardly an acceptable option. So the argument has to be how much and what type of surveillance is acceptable for a reasonable level of security.

      • Colonial Rawshark 3.6.1
        23 January 2015 at 10:48 pm

        So you are satisfied with the explanations of how the French intelligence services missed the fact that several people that they had on watch lists pulled this massacre off under their noses?

        Oh that’s right, there have been no actual explanations, not that you actually care for that detail, you’ll give them a pass mark.

        By the way this bullshit line of there needing to be a “balance” between security and privacy stems back to immediately after 9/11 and the Patriot Act. You’ve gotta think we are idiots to keep falling for it again.

        • JRyan 3.6.1.1
          27 January 2015 at 8:51 am

          So you say we do not need any surveillance? Security of a country requires a certain amount of information gathering. It is simply naïve to not monitor people that could possibility carry out some warped act of violence. And if one thinks there is no one on our shores that wants to agitate, carry out instructions from afar or simplistic domestic violence then one is disillusioned. Its like saying we do not require a police force. The police are a domestic army.

  4. Treetop 4
    22 January 2015 at 3:12 pm

    I read today either on stuff.co or the Herald that when it came to Smith’s passport (absconded to Brazil) being issued, facial recognition was used. Even using facial recognition has its failure. Legal name matched the face, so got a passport. Even alias names used were checked.

  5. One Anonymous Bloke 5
    22 January 2015 at 3:37 pm

    You mean to say the abstract art known as Mathematics has a Liberal bias too!

  6. Truth Will Out 6
    22 January 2015 at 4:47 pm

    The issue is not mass surveillance.

    The issue is potential misuse of the information for political gain/reasons.

    Through a quirk of fate, I was born in Yemen.

    Even though my parents are both British, and we left there when I was less than 3 months old, it appears on my birth certificate and as my birthplace on my UK & NZ passports.

    This, in itself, is not a problem.

    What IS a problem, however, is that I also happen to have been very outspoken criticising the current government over their handling of one particular issue, and subsequently others.

    In a properly functioning democracy, this would not be a problem.

    But we do not live in a properly functioning democracy.

    What we DO live in now, is a system where a politician like John Key can have me surveilled and even arrested, as well as held indefinitely without charge, on the “suspicion that I might be planning activities” which are not to his government’s liking.

    History has already proven more than once that Key and his goons are more than willing to criminalise dissent at every available opportunity.

    Simply to silence their critics, and intimidate everyone else into conformity and submission.

    And he could do it very, very easily by simply saying “he is from Yemen”.

    And more than half the population will need no further evidence than that to satisfy their minds that I deserve such treatment.

    All they will need is John Key’s word for it, or Chris Finlayson’s,

    People should think about that. They should think about how quickly and easily they dismiss the rights of other people based on accusations and innuendo, because if anything is weakening our democracy and rights, that is.

    It gives power to politicians they should not have, and it places them above the courts, which effectively means we lost World War 2 in reality.

    So, next time you attend an Anzac Dawn Parade, standing there with your hand on your heart, make sure you actually do care about the sacrifices our soldiers made, instead of just pretending to.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 6.1
      22 January 2015 at 4:56 pm

      Well said.

    • fisiani 6.2
      22 January 2015 at 11:03 pm

      Paranoia can be treated. We do live in a totalitarian country. Even a Leftist like you will be treated with respect.

      • Truth Will Out 6.2.1
        23 January 2015 at 10:05 am

        @Fisiani

        And so John Key deletes his txt messages because he isn’t paranoid and has nothing to hide?

        He employs teams of people to help him maintain a carefully constructed public image because he just feels like it?

        Your assumptions are laughable.

        I support neither the left nor the right, and I have provided ample evidence on this website to prove it.

        Why do you need to categorise people so much, what are you afraid of?

        You speak with thinly disguised contempt of “respect”, as if it is something I should feel privileged to have conferred upon me by the likes of you.

        Why would I want respect from such an ignorant piece of sh*t like you?

        How would that serve me, when I rate you beneath bacteria in the great scheme of things?

  7. saveNZ 7
    22 January 2015 at 9:37 pm

    Mass surveillance and all the censorship is making any ‘terrorist’ situation worse in two ways. Firstly by surveilling the masses you are taking away resources from more likely suspects and two you are making any potential terrorists (or nutcase) more careful and less likely to get caught. You want nutcase to speak out on Facebook etc and by using profiling could probably predict more accurately any potential terrorist. You could then surveil them covertly and find out if there is any actual threat. By threatening and over reacting and persecuting innoscent people it is making those people more radicalised, defeating the purpose of containing terrorism – instead it is increasing the risk.

    But let’s face it, mass surveillance is about power and control not terrorism.

    The Illegal war on Iraq on the basis of WMD which was false, and over time seems to have be forgotten that there were no grounds for invasion. Now NZ might be going there to be part of ‘the club’. F@$K these are peoples lives at stake.

    The 911 terrorists were mostly Saudi Arabians. They have terrible human rights record and have just beheaded a woman but But hey, America does nothing to them, but instead concentrating on countries that are not linked to terrorism… that is, until the ‘war on terror’.

    Saudi Arabia publicly beheads woman in holy Mecca as blogger lashings are postponed
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-publicly-beheads-woman-in-holy-mecca-as-blogger-set-to-receive-second-lashing-9982134.html

    It’s perfect capitalism, taxpayers funding the war on terror, and the war industry meeting the market and creating more demand for their services by creating more terrorists.

  8. Pete George 8
    23 January 2015 at 7:02 am

    Mass surveillance cannot accomplish its stated goals. It is likely that many within the security / government system understand this full well. But mass surveillance is being pushed on us anyway. This means of course, that it is being used for unstated goals.

    It’s been stated a number of times that we don’t do mass surveillance in New Zealand.

    Prime Minister John Key has released a series of documents ‘setting the record straight’ over claims the GCSB had spied on New Zealanders.

    Mr Key responded quickly to Edward Snowden and Glen Greenwald’s freshest claims – that “if you live in New Zealand, you are being watched” – this afternoon.

    “Claims have been made tonight that are simply wrong and that is because they are based on incomplete information.

    ”There is not, and never has been, a cable access surveillance programme operating in New Zealand.

    “There is not, and never has been, mass surveillance of New Zealanders undertaken by the GCSB.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11325069

    And

    And GCSB spies respond to mass surveillance allegations

    The Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) has responded to election week allegations it carries out mass surveillance on New Zealanders, denying its programmes are for anything other than cyber security.

    It’s been likened to scanning of everything on your computer with virus protection but on a country scale. It’s also been said that large companies and organisations have been assisted in cyber protection.

    Early September this year, somewhere in the world unknown computer hackers set their sights on New Zealand. Boffins in charge of security at Telecom, now called Spark, saw a cyber-attack coming in, a big one.

    Its internet and email system went down on the Friday and stayed down for 72 hours.

    The experts are still trying to work out exactly what did happen when foreign hackers took control of 120 home computers.

    Cyber-attacks happen across the world every hour of every day. It’s these sort of attacks the GCSB says it is trying to prevent – shadowy hackers from all over the world, sending out complex viruses to damage big businesses or Government departments, or even getting inside and taking them over.

    My guess is that most people would be happy to have their home computers protected from being taken over.

    There is no direct proof that the GCSB is hovering up the metadata of ordinary New Zealanders, but the cable programme 7148 and the approach to Spark are possible indications that last year it was on the cards and it may be again.

    Mass surveillance/collection of all metadata of New Zealanders by the GCSB is illegal. There are very specific legal processes involved in allowing targeted surveillance.

    Not legal. No proof.

    Mass surveillance is not being pushed on us. What is the unstated goal of implying that it is?

    • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1
      23 January 2015 at 7:41 am

      The beige parrot has learned another lie.

      Bzzt.

    • Tracey 8.2
      23 January 2015 at 10:14 am

      you didnt actually read the documents he released and compare them to the statements he said they refuted, did you Pete?

      Truly, take the time to actually read the documents the PM declassified to “prove” his point… then go back and read what was said by Snowden

    • Murray Rawshark 8.3
      23 January 2015 at 4:43 pm

      “My guess is that most people would be happy to have their home computers protected from being taken over.”

      Yeah, you get an antivirus for that, not an all powerful agency full of lying squirrels with allegiance to the Republican caucus of the US and A.

    • Colonial Rawshark 8.4
      23 January 2015 at 6:36 pm

      Mass surveillance/collection of all metadata of New Zealanders by the GCSB is illegal. There are very specific legal processes involved in allowing targeted surveillance.

      That’s why they get their foreign partners to do it sillybilly.

      You have not been keeping up. Don’t comment on things that you have not been following.

      BTW do you remember when James Clapper National Security Director told a panel of the House that the NSA did not collect the communication information of millions or hundreds of millions of Americans?

      Turns out he was fucking lying through his teeth.

      Given this, and the many other lies the power elite have told us about their systems and activities, what makes you so trusting of the FVEY security apparatus on this side of the Pacific?

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    Point of OrderBy gadams1000
    2 days ago

  • Top 10 news links for Wednesday, Nov 29
    TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere for Wednesday November 29, including:The early return of interest deductibility for landlords could see rebates paid on previous taxes and the cost increase to $3 billion from National’s initial estimate of $2.1 billion, CTU Economist Craig Renney estimated here last ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • Smokefree Fallout and a High Profile Resignation.
    The day after being sworn in the new cabinet met yesterday, to enjoy their honeymoon phase. You remember, that period after a new government takes power where the country, and the media, are optimistic about them, because they haven’t had a chance to stuff anything about yet.Sadly the nuptials complete ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • As Cabinet revs up, building plans go on hold
    Wellington Council hoardings proclaim its preparations for population growth, but around the country councils are putting things on hold in the absence of clear funding pathways for infrastructure, and despite exploding migrant numbers. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Cabinet meets in earnest today to consider the new Government’s 100-day ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • National takes over infrastructure
    Though New Zealand First may have had ambitions to run the infrastructure portfolios, National would seem to have ended up firmly in control of them.  POLITIK has obtained a private memo to members of Infrastructure NZ yesterday, which shows that the peak organisation for infrastructure sees  National MPs Chris ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago

  • At a glance – Evidence for global warming
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • Who’s Driving The Right-Wing Bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In ...
    Bowalley Road
    3 days ago

  • Sanity break
    Cheers to reader Deane for this quote from Breakfast TV today:Chloe Swarbrick to Brook van Velden re the coalition agreement: “... an unhinged grab-bag of hot takes from your drunk uncle at Christmas”Cheers also to actual Prime Minister of a country Christopher Luxon for dorking up his swearing-in vows.But that's enough ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Sanity break
    Cheers to reader Deane for this quote from Breakfast TV today:Chloe Swarbrick to Brook van Velden re the coalition agreement: “... an unhinged grab-bag of hot takes from your drunk uncle at Christmas”Cheers also to actual Prime Minister of a country Christopher Luxon for dorking up his swearing-in vows.But that's enough ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • National’s murderous smoking policy
    One of the big underlying problems in our political system is the prevalence of short-term thinking, most usually seen in the periodic massive infrastructure failures at a local government level caused by them skimping on maintenance to Keep Rates Low. But the new government has given us a new example, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • NZ has a chance to rise again as our new government gets spending under control
    New Zealand has  a chance  to  rise  again. Under the  previous  government, the  number of New Zealanders below the poverty line was increasing  year by year. The Luxon-led government  must reverse that trend – and set about stabilising  the  pillars  of the economy. After the  mismanagement  of the outgoing government created   huge ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    3 days ago

  • KARL DU FRESNE: Media and the new government
    Two articles by Karl du Fresne bring media coverage of the new government into considerations.  He writes –    Tuesday, November 28, 2023 The left-wing media needed a line of attack, and they found one The left-wing media pack wasted no time identifying the new government’s weakest point. Seething over ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • PHILIP CRUMP:  Team of rivals – a CEO approach to government leadership
    The work begins Philip Crump wrote this article ahead of the new government being sworn in yesterday – Later today the new National-led coalition government will be sworn in, and the hard work begins. At the core of government will be three men – each a leader ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Black Friday
    As everyone who watches television or is on the mailing list for any of our major stores will confirm, “Black Friday” has become the longest running commercial extravaganza and celebration in our history. Although its origins are obscure (presumably dreamt up by American salesmen a few years ago), it has ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    3 days ago

  • In Defense of the Media.
    Yesterday the Ministers in the next government were sworn in by our Governor General. A day of tradition and ceremony, of decorum and respect. Usually.But yesterday Winston Peters, the incoming Deputy Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister, of our nation used it, as he did with the signing of the coalition ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Tuesday, Nov 28
    Nicola Willis’ first move was ‘spilling the tea’ on what she called the ‘sobering’ state of the nation’s books, but she had better be able to back that up in the HYEFU. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • PT use up but fare increases coming
    Yesterday Auckland Transport were celebrating, as the most recent Sunday was the busiest Sunday they’ve ever had. That’s a great outcome and I’m sure the ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • The very opposite of social investment
    Nicola Willis (in blue) at the signing of the coalition agreement, before being sworn in as both Finance Minister and Social Investment Minister. National’s plan to unwind anti-smoking measures will benefit her in the first role, but how does it stack up from a social investment viewpoint? Photo: Lynn Grieveson ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Giving Tuesday
    For the first time "in history" we decided to jump on the "Giving Tuesday" bandwagon in order to make you aware of the options you have to contribute to our work! Projects supported by Skeptical Science Inc. Skeptical Science Skeptical Science is an all-volunteer organization but ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • Let's open the books with Nicotine Willis
    Let’s say it’s 1984,and there's a dreary little nation at the bottom of the Pacific whose name rhymes with New Zealand,and they've just had an election.Jesus, Mary, and Joseph, will you look at the state of these books we’ve opened,cries the incoming government, will you look at all this mountain ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Climate Change: Stopping oil
    National is promising to bring back offshore oil and gas drilling. Naturally, the Greens have organised a petition campaign to try and stop them. You should sign it - every little bit helps, and as the struggle over mining conservation land showed, even National can be deterred if enough people ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago

  • Don’t accept Human Rights Commission reading of data on Treaty partnership – read the survey fin...
    Wellington is braced for a “massive impact’ from the new government’s cutting public service jobs, The Post somewhat grimly reported today. Expectations of an economic and social jolt are based on the National-Act coalition agreement to cut public service numbers in each government agency in a cost-trimming exercise  “informed by” head ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • The stupidest of stupid reasons
    One of the threats in the National - ACT - NZ First coalition agreements was to extend the term of Parliament to four years, reducing our opportunities to throw a bad government out. The justification? Apparently, the government thinks "elections are expensive". This is the stupidest of stupid reasons for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago

  • A website bereft of buzz
    Buzz from the Beehive The new government was being  sworn in, at time of writing , and when Point of Order checked the Beehive website for the latest ministerial statements and re-visit some of the old ones we drew a blank. We found ….  Nowt. Nothing. Zilch. Not a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • MICHAEL BASSETT: A new Ministry – at last
    Michael Bassett writes – Like most people, I was getting heartily sick of all the time being wasted over the coalition negotiations. During the first three weeks Winston grinned like a Cheshire cat, certain he’d be needed; Chris Luxon wasted time in lifting the phone to Winston ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Luxon's Breakfast.
    The Prime Minister elect had his silver fern badge on. He wore it to remind viewers he was supporting New Zealand, that was his team. Despite the fact it made him look like a concierge, or a welcomer in a Koru lounge. Anna Burns-Francis, the Breakfast presenter, asked if he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • LINDSAY MITCHELL:  Oranga Tamariki faces major upheaval under coalition agreement
     Lindsay Mitchell writes – A hugely significant gain for ACT is somewhat camouflaged by legislative jargon. Under the heading ‘Oranga Tamariki’ ACT’s coalition agreement contains the following item:   Remove Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 According to Oranga Tamariki:     “Section ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • BRIAN EASTON:  Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record. Brian Easton writes – 1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Cathrine Dyer's guide to watching COP 28 from the bottom of a warming planet
    Is COP28 largely smoke and mirrors and a plan so cunning, you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel? Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: COP28 kicks off on November 30 and up for negotiation are issues like the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition, contributions to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Monday, Nov 27
    PM Elect Christopher Luxon was challenged this morning on whether he would sack Adrian Orr and Andrew Coster.TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am on Monday November 27, including:Signs councils are putting planning and capital spending on hold, given a lack of clear guidance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the new government’s policies of yesteryear
    This column expands on a Werewolf column published by Scoop on Friday Routinely, Winston Peters is described as the kingmaker who gets to decide when the centre right or the centre-left has a turn at running this country. He also plays a less heralded but equally important role as the ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • The New Government’s Agreements
    Last Friday, almost six weeks after election day, National finally came to an agreement with ACT and NZ First to form a government. They also released the agreements between each party and looking through them, here are the things I thought were the most interesting (and often concerning) from the. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    4 days ago

  • How many smokers will die to fund the tax cuts?
    Maori and Pasifika smoking rates are already over twice the ‘all adult’ rate. Now the revenue that generates will be used to fund National’s tax cuts. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The devil is always in the detail and it emerged over the weekend from the guts of the policy agreements National ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • How the culture will change in the Beehive
    Perhaps the biggest change that will come to the Beehive as the new government settles in will be a fundamental culture change. The era of endless consultation will be over. This looks like a government that knows what it wants to do, and that means it knows what outcomes ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • No More Winnie Blues.
    So what do you think of the coalition’s decision to cancel Smokefree measures intended to stop young people, including an over representation of Māori, from taking up smoking? Enabling them to use the tax revenue to give other people a tax cut?David Cormack summed it up well:It seems not only ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 19, 2023 thru Sat, Nov 25, 2023.  Story of the Week World stands on frontline of disaster at Cop28, says UN climate chief  Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Some of it is mad, some of it is bad and some of it is clearly the work of people who are dangerous ...
    On announcement morning my mate texted:Typical of this cut-price, fake-deal government to announce itself on Black Friday.What a deal. We lose Kim Hill, we gain an empty, jargonising prime minister, a belligerent conspiracist, and a heartless Ayn Rand fanboy. One door closes, another gets slammed repeatedly in your face.It seems pretty ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • “Revolution” is the threat as the Māori Party smarts at coalition government’s Treaty directi...
    Buzz from the Beehive Having found no fresh announcements on the government’s official website, Point of Order turned today to Scoop’s Latest Parliament Headlines  for its buzz. This provided us with evidence that the Māori Party has been soured by the the coalition agreement announced yesterday by the new PM. “Soured” ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • The Good, the Bad, and the even Worse.
    Yesterday the trio that will lead our country unveiled their vision for New Zealand.Seymour looking surprisingly statesmanlike, refusing to rise to barbs about his previous comments on Winston Peters. Almost as if they had just been slapstick for the crowd.Winston was mostly focussed on settling scores with the media, making ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • When it Comes to Palestine – Free Speech is Under Threat
    Hi,Thanks for getting amongst Mister Organ on digital — thanks to you, we hit the #1 doc spot on iTunes this week. This response goes a long way to helping us break even.I feel good about that. Other things — not so much.New Zealand finally has a new government, and ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago

  • Thank you Captain Luxon. Was that a landing, or were we shot down?
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Also in More Than A FeildingFriday The unboxing And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • Cans of Worms.
    “And there’ll be no shortage of ‘events’ to test Luxon’s political skills. David Seymour wants a referendum on the Treaty. Winston wants a Royal Commission of Inquiry into Labour’s handling of the Covid crisis. Talk about cans of worms!”LAURIE AND LES were very fond of their local. It was nothing ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • Disinformation campaigns are undermining democracy. Here’s how we can fight back
    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Misinformation is debated everywhere and has justifiably sparked concerns. It can polarise the public, reduce health-protective behaviours such as mask wearing and vaccination, and erode trust in science. Much of misinformation is spread not ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record.1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is not even an entry in Wikipedia. ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    7 days ago

  • The New Government: 2023 Edition
    So New Zealand has a brand-spanking new right-wing government. Not just any new government either. A formal majority coalition, of the sort last seen in 1996-1998 (our governmental arrangements for the past quarter of a century have been varying flavours of minority coalition or single-party minority, with great emphasis ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    7 days ago

  • The unboxing
    And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the tree with its gold ribbon but can turn out to be nothing more than a big box holding a voucher for socks, so it ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago

  • A cruel, vicious, nasty government
    So, after weeks of negotiations, we finally have a government, with a three-party cabinet and a time-sharing deputy PM arrangement. Newsroom's Marc Daalder has put the various coalition documents online, and I've been reading through them. A few things stand out: Luxon doesn't want to do any work, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago

  • Hurrah – we have a new government (National, ACT and New Zealand First commit “to deliver for al...
    Buzz from the Beehive Sorry, there has been  no fresh news on the government’s official website since the caretaker trade minister’s press statement about the European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement. But the capital is abuzz with news – and media comment is quickly flowing – after ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago

  • Christopher Luxon – NZ PM #42.
    Nothing says strong and stable like having your government announcement delayed by a day because one of your deputies wants to remind everyone, but mostly you, who wears the trousers. It was all a bit embarrassing yesterday with the parties descending on Wellington before pulling out of proceedings. There are ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • Coalition Government details policies & ministers
    Winston Peters will be Deputy PM for the first half of the Coalition Government’s three-year term, with David Seymour being Deputy PM for the second half. Photo montage by Lynn Grieveson for The KākāTL;DR: PM-Elect Christopher Luxon has announced the formation of a joint National-ACT-NZ First coalition Government with a ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago

  • “Old Coat” by Peter, Paul & Mary.
     THERE ARE SOME SONGS that seem to come from a place that is at once in and out of the world. Written by men and women who, for a brief moment, are granted access to that strange, collective compendium of human experience that comes from, and belongs to, all the ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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