The myth of upward mobility

Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, November 6th, 2009 - 62 comments
Categories: capitalism, class war - Tags:

Yesterday, we looked at what a vastly unfair and unequal system capitalism is.

plutocracyThe control of the fruits of production by the few means that wealth accumulates to them and the rest of us get a pittance. The wealthiest 10% of people own over half of the wealth of this country – net worths of $650,000 each (actually, a small fraction of them will control most of that wealth too). 50% of us have just 3% of New Zealand’s wealth amongst ourselves – with average net worths of $7,000.

But a lot of people have the notion that although they’re being screwed now, it’s OK because a) it’s the ‘natural’ order (I’ll come back to that some time) and b) one day they’ll be the ones doing the screwing.

It’s a myth. If you’re working class or middle class odds are you’ll stay working class or middle class. And the wealthy nearly always stay wealthy. This Stats NZ study looked at the movement of people among income deciles over a five-year period (2002-2007, but there’s no reason to think it wouldn’t be the same over any five-year period).The size of the circles is the percent of people who had been in each decile in 2002 who were in a given decile in 2007:

income mobilityAs you can see, most people are in the same decile five years later or very close to it. There’s some mobility among the lower deciles and some mobility among the higher deciles but very few people (only 18%) who were in the 10th (richest) decile in 2002 were below the 8th five years later. Only 10% of people who started off in the lower five deciles made it into the top two or three.

In fact, the mobility you can see is largely a factor of life-cycle – students moving into high paid jobs etc. The study breaks down the age groups and income mobility is very low with life-cycle movement taken out.

So not only is our political economic system designed to concentrate wealth in the hands of a few people, who those people are doesn’t change either. If you’re not one of them now, the odds are you never will be. So the question arises – why support a system that steals the wealthyou produce with your hard work and gives it to them? Are the crumbs that fall from their table enough?

62 comments on “The myth of upward mobility ”

  1. Gosman 1

    So your whole argument is based on movement over a five year period?

    I’m not sure anyone makes claims that Capitalism encourages social mobility over such a short period of time.

    Your argument would have more validity if you had a study with data over a 50 year or more period.

    • Marty G 1.1

      You mean over a period longer than a person’s working life? Um, that wouldn’t work eh?

      In case you missed it, this shows how the incomes of individuals changed among income deciles over time.

      It would be nice to have several 5 year periods to compare but this is the first stud of its kind that I could find.

      You can’t dismiss the findings just because you don’t like them.

      • Gosman 1.1.1

        Social Mobility goes beyond a single person’s lifetime. I thought you would be aware of this.

        Try finding studies that have been done which look at whether people’s children remain in the same social group over time.

        • Pascal's bookie 1.1.1.1

          The Economist did one a while back on meritocracy in the USA. What they found was that there isn’t much, and there’s less than there used to be. It’s all very sticky, and getting stickier.

        • BLiP 1.1.1.3

          And this:

          A careful comparison reveals that the USA and Britain are at the bottom with the lowest social mobility. Norway has the greatest social mobility, followed by Denmark, Sweden and Finland. Germany is around the middle of the two extremes, and Canada was found to be much more mobile than the UK.

    • Sam 1.2

      Ah there has been research done in 2005 that compares the vocations put down in census data (after it is standardised etc with changes in interpretation) and the fact is that since 1896 the working class has grown while the employer and self-employed have shrunk. The trend was interrupted somewhat in the 80’s and 90’s but this was due to the casualisation of the labour market, the high levels of unemployment we’ve had since the 1970s, and in my opinion, the “class confusion” that many of the Middle Class suffer from (that is, they don’t see themselves as workers when they are). That’s not social mobility, that’s capitalism doing what it does – concentrating wealth and power into the hands of fewer and fewer people.

      (If you want the reference to this study: Hayes, Penelope, 2005. “The end of class? An empirical investigation into the changing composition of New Zealand’s class structure, 1896-2001” in New Zealand Sociology 20(2):41-72)

      So Marty is entirely correct – egalitarianism and social mobility are myths. It’s arguable that it ever existed at all beyond the first waves of European migration, but it’s certainly an outright fallacy after 1984. However for some reason we cling to this idea and it obscures our perception of what is really happening. Which, if you are in the top 10 percentile is exactly what you would want…

      • Gosman 1.2.1

        ‘”class confusion’ that many of the Middle Class suffer from ‘

        Classic piece of leftist thinking there!

        I have a question for you.

        I work as an It Contractor for a NZ Bank. Does that mean I am a worker?

        However My wife and I run an own a small business. Does that mean I am a Capitalist?

        Then again my Wife does all the work in the business so we aren’t oppressing anyone except ourselves.

        Oh the dilemmas that people on the left face. How do you make it through the day?

        • Sam 1.2.1.1

          If you sell your labour you are a worker. If you exploit others’ you are a capitalist. If you exploit your own you are a member of the petit-bourgeois class.

          But by all means, be arrogant and dismissive of things you have no idea about. Keep it up.

  2. vto 2

    Interesting interesting. What would make it more relevant is a comparison with other places in time in NZ and with other places in the comparable globe. To see if / how the mobility changes over time and place. For example, if the mobility now is greater than it was in say the 1970s, 1940s, 1900s, mid-1800s, dark ages, etc then there is some good to be seen ya?

    As it is, it is interesting but without a comparison point it is difficult to see whether things are on the improve or deprove..

    My 2c suspects that mobility today is higher than it was in near-all NZs previous epochs / periods / governances / etc.

    • Marty G 2.1

      Well, I spent over an hour assembling the data and checking it to show what I’ve shown about income mobility.

      How about you show some evidence for your assertions? I’m not saying they’re wrong – but you’re clearly trying to blame Labour for it somehow. However, I would strongly suspect that in the great depression and in the 1800s before the great stations were broken up income mobility was far lower.

      Either way, it’s still incredibly low now and that shows the nature of capitalism

      • vto 2.1.1

        Ay? Labour to blame? Dont think I suggested that. My point was, good point but difficult to see if things are on the improve or deprove, or even whether such a level of mobility as you have shown is good or bad. Obviously total mobility would be some sort of aim, however then the top 10% woudl be crowded with 100% of the people – a conundrum thingy methinky.

        I have no evidence for my 2c suggesting more mobility now than in NZs history – only anecdotal.

        Good effort MartyG

        • felix 2.1.1.1

          “Obviously total mobility would be some sort of aim…”

          Can you tell us a bit more about what you mean by this? I’m not quite grasping it.

          • vto 2.1.1.1.1

            I mean Felix such mobility as allows people to move between deciles pretty much at will (or with only work etc being the barriers, not social position, wealth, or lack of, etc). Then everyone would want to go to the top decile, and get there, if mobility was simple.

            But I see this whole post has moved on now. I’m a day late.

        • Draco T Bastard 2.1.1.2

          Actually, the anecdotal evidence is that upward mobility is less now than before. Most of the people today are worse off than they were in 1984 which kind of puts a crimp in any sort economic activity.

  3. Again, further evidence of how far removed some here are from the real world.

    Even the most ardent capitalist wouldn’t say capitalism has its faults.

    The reality is of course that for the most, regardless of its weaknesses, the core of the current system allowing for electoral swings and roundabouts is manifestly superior to any of the other systems.

    Tellingly, you highlight perceived faults without proposing an alternative method. The problem is that the alternative methods employed to address the inherent weaknesses in capitalism have been spectacular failures. Even China has been forced to move more towards a capitalist model.

    I think you also miss a significant feature of capitalism and the market economies. Capitalism relies on a free flow of information and as such assists in the democratic rights we have. It is interesting to note that those who actively choose to take the non-capitalist path can only do so by controlling free speech and the democratic processes. It simply illustrates how out of touch you are to propose (by inference) systems that require force and restrictions to succeed.

    • Marty G 3.1

      Not very post is a complete thesis, Daveski. Yesterday a number of lefties, notably Irish, proposed simple reforms that would do much to create a more equal and fiar society still built on a capitalist base.

      I will be doing the same later in this series.

      And I note you don’t even attempt to address the issue here – income mobility is a myth. If you’re born poor you’ll likely die poor, and the rich, whom capitalism is designed to serve, stay rich.

      I’m not proposing anything that would restrict free speech. And if you think we have free speech in a country where the media are controlled by four (three foreign owned) corporations, well you’re wrong.

    • Daveo 3.2

      I’m taking it you’ve never heard of democratic socialism Daveski. Capitalist regimes can, and historically have been, just as undemocratic as any socialist regime. There’s nothing inherent in capitalism that supports free speech and democracy.

      Anyway, I wouldn’t get too worried. This looks like the start of an ongoing series. I’m sure if you’re patient Marty will start getting into democratic alternatives or reforms to capitalism in good time.

  4. Harpoon 4

    The chart is very pretty … congratulations!

    BUT can somebody please explain (in plain English) how to read it? Ta.

    • Richard 4.1

      The horizontal axis shows income deciles in 2007, the vertical in 2002.

      If you want to find out where people who were in the 5th decile in 2002 ended up in 2007 you would:
      – find 5 on the vertical axis.
      – read across horizontally.
      – the size of the bubbles indicates the number of people.
      – so most people who were in the 5th decile in 2002 are still in the 5th decile in 2007, because that has the biggest bubble. Quite a few are now in the 4th decile, some in the 6th. Decreasing amounts in the other deciles.

      Hope that helps.

      • Richard 4.1.1

        The fact that the biggest bubbles lie on the diagonal, tell us that most people did not move decile.

      • Lew 4.1.2

        Would be a bit more intuitive if 2007 was charted on the X, so that upward mobility was represented by movement ‘up’ rather than ‘right’. Although, now that I think of it that way, there’s a certain poeticality to that plotting.

        L

      • Rob 4.1.3

        I also find this confusing and not the way I would present this data.

        I actually think the chart is flawed, a simple method of presenting this data would be by two proprtional columns showing change is segments over the two time periods. All you are trying to achieve is a delta from two time periods.

        Also that would enable you to expand and increase the number of time periods, so you could see the % change in segments over many time periods. It would present a much better view on segment size and change.

        • Richard 4.1.3.1

          The proportional columns idea doesn’t work. There are always 10% of people in each decile — that’s what decile means.

          What this graph shows is how the people in each decile moved from period to period. Did they change decile or not? As the big bubbles are on the diagonal, the answer is that most people did not change decile.

          Your suggested method doesn’t seem to show this information.

  5. If it wasn’t for capitalism you wouldn’t have the internet.

    • Lew 5.1

      Brett, because the internet was invented by … IBM, no … Microsoft, no … google, no … Al Gore, no, but … The US Federal Government Department of Defence!

      Thanks, big government. You’re good for something after all.

      L

      • Quoth the Raven 5.1.1

        Thanks America’s military-industrial complex you’re a force for good in the world.

    • felix 5.2

      Well that proves it, Marty. There’s heaps of income mobility in NZ.

      Well done pointing it out, Brett.

    • Bill 5.3

      If it wasn’t for capitalism we wouldn’t have second rate technologies foisted on us as a result of a competitive environment where economy of scale rather than excellence is often the deciding factor as to which technology or product prevails.

      And the internet resulted from publicly funded R&D. Government then handed it over to the private sector for them to make profits on it. Hardly hard core capitalism. Some might even call such a leg up Corporate Communism or some such.

      • Lew 5.3.1

        And the internet resulted from publicly funded R&D. Government then handed it over to the private sector for them to make profits on it.

        … and those of you hard-core capitalists who’re connected to the interwebs using wi-fi — Big Government R&D, you’re soaking in it.

        L

  6. Edosan 6

    I would really like to see what happened to that graph over the next two years, what with the latest unemployment stats. A bit of mobility the other way I would say.

  7. burt 7

    I’m not surprised that under social polices that promote welfare dependence that there was little movement across income brackets. The lack of incentives to earn more as a result of harsh abatement rates and the effect of very low “rich prick” thresholds did exactly what Labour wanted it to do… Nobody shall earn too much and nobody shall earn too little.

    • Daveo 7.1

      I want some of what burt’s on.

    • So Bored 7.2

      Yes you are right Burt, if we got rid of welfare and left the poor to die the figures would look much nicer for proponents of upward mobility myths. Mind you there might also be some downward mobility from the top too as the poor chose to loot the wealthy.

      • burt 7.2.1

        So Bored

        OK, so let’s look at this. Stats from a 5 year period during which the Labour party social policies were in place showed little mobility between income brackets.

        The partisan hacks who love welfare dependency in the middle class automatically say it would have been worse under National. How so ?

        Why when I suggests that middle class welfare and harsh benefit abatement rates are a disincentive to people increasing their earnings do complete idiots read that as a suggestion that welfare should be scrapped completely? I will stand up and be counted as a person who strongly supports scrapping welfare for people earning up to twice the tax system definition of “rich prick’ but that is a very long way from saying we should not have welfare.

        If you are incapable of discussing benefits for middle and high earners (eg: WFF for people earning up to $120K) as being something completely different from paying unemployment or sickness benefits then don’t waste my time pretending to understand benefits, abatement rates and personal motivations to change personal circumstances.

        • Bright Red 7.2.1.1

          There’s no suggestion in the study that the lack of income mobility has anything to do with policy of the government of the day. It’s inherent in the capitalist system.

          It really is pathetic of you to try to blame it on Labour for no other reason than that Labour happened to be the government during the period of this study.

          • burt 7.2.1.1.1

            So it’s the fault of the failed policies of the 90’s then….

            If you are prepared to say that the policies of the govt de-jour are not a factor then clearly state that now. I’ll bookmark the link and next time you start blathering on about the policies of national increasing the gap between rich and poor I’ll remind you it is the capitalist system rather than the govt.

            What a twat…. might as well say it is human nature and just accept it as “it is what it is”.

            • Bright Red 7.2.1.1.1.1

              “So it’s the fault of the failed policies of the 90’s then .” no. It’s inherent in capitalism.

              And contrary to this: “might as well say it is human nature and just accept it as “it is what it is’ (which i see in the post marty predicted you would say) capitalism isn’t a state of nature, it is a socio/economic/political construct

              In the case of income mobility the policies of the government of the day (short of radical reform) are likely to have little effect. However (and bookmark this) obviously a government’s policies can and do influence the difference in wealth between deciles.

              national undermined unions and let the minimum wage fall in the 1990s, and the poor got poorer while the rich got richer. Labour reversed that to some extent. That’s a different issue to income mobility.

              I think that’s pretty clearly explained. Naturally, you will attempt to misconstrue it, because that’s what you do.

            • burt 7.2.1.1.1.2

              Classic

              I didn’t think you would have the balls to say that the policies de-jour don’t have an impact but you are too myopic to consider the govt de-jour when the study was done as being a factor in the stats.

              Wimp.

        • Now Very Bored 7.2.1.2

          Burt, get a sense of humour. And if you want to discuss benefits you might want to start with tax benefits etc, all those little devices for keeping the money fl;owing upwards (which result in the graph being as it is).

    • roger nome 7.3

      Burt – as someone pointed out further up the thread, the social democratic, high-tax, large welfare state Scandinavian countries have the highest social mobility, and the low-tax, relatively free market countries (Eng, US), have the lowest.

      No surprise that you missed that.

      • burt 7.3.1

        roger

        One of the concepts that I have been led to believe is that part of the ‘Scandinavian’ concept of welfare is a degree of entitlement attributed to contributions made. Fir example a big tax payer might get a bigger benefit for unemployment than a perpetual beneficiary. Can you start to see where equity of income also becomes a factor in welfare systems when the two are intrinsically linked via an ideology? Are you comfortable with that?

  8. The graph shows that tin pot aspirational capitalists are likely to remain just that. One of capitalisms many grubby little secrets is that there is always only going to be a self limiting small club at the very ‘top’. The same clubs mass media and manipulative tory marketing manage to persuade thousands of this section of voters otherwise of course.

  9. prism 9

    Exciting possibilities now Nats are in about changing abatement rates? Think I heard in passing recently that plans have been dropped. People on welfare can’t better themselves, they are not allowed or wanted to, that’s where the tall poppy syndrome is really seen to be at its most cutting. And attitudes are still negative to welfare, both from those who have achieved financial success and jobs that enable good livings, but also from the downers who get a quick burst of superiority by sneering at others. Encourage low income people, support and help to improve their own situation and lessen long-term welfare costs – hey that’s – a bit radical?

    • burt 9.1

      People on welfare can’t better themselves, they are not allowed or wanted to…

      OMG – You are chanelling Dr Cullen… or was that snippet something Clark sent you in a txtda recently ?

  10. BLiP 10

    Why is it when even given the undeniable data, well presented in a simple to understand format (top marks Marty, thanks) the average punter still doesn’t get it?

    The more I see of it, the more I am convinced we have become captured by our selfish desires at the expense of our rational mind. Maybe the scientists are correct: human beings are little more than life-support systems for DNA molecules.

    Ah, well, never mind. I finally got paid for the overtime I did last Christmas and I just soooo need to a Iphone.

  11. prism 11

    Facts, and graphs, and stats – The way our employment figures are gathered interests me. I understand that an individual only has to do one paid hour work a week to be included in the employment stats. If so the totals we hear about are not useful for practical understanding. Also if true, why do we include such nebulous figures. Does the OECD want it and we want compatability with them – and do all ‘developed’ countries count their working population like this? USA, Brit?

    • Bright Red 11.1

      The hours worked is the one to look at, not the number of unemployed, because like you say, a person working 1 hour or a person working 40 counts the same, even if the person working one hour wants and needs more work. Plus if people give up looking for work altogether they disappear from the unemployment figure.

  12. randal 12

    whoever said capitalism was fair?
    it isnt.
    its horrible and it destroys everything and supplies endless amounts of goods that are dangerous, poisonous and ultimately fatal for the health of the planet yet some people think that it is possible to replace it.
    soory folks but people are adventitious.
    if capitalism is to be critiqued then it cannot be done so on the basis of unequal possession of goods and services when it is those goods and services in the first place that are creating the ulitmate destruction of the ability of this planet to sustain itself in the long term.

  13. Malcolm 13

    Who said a meritocracy should equate with social mobility?

    Perhaps lower social mobility just means that people are getting to their natural level earlier in their lives. Or a lot of people are condemning their own kids by the example they set. Or more people are wealthier than ever and choosing to do other things with their time, than climb the ladder. So many options.

    And none of them point to a fundamental failing of capitalism.

  14. prism 14

    Perhaps smugocracy is what you get when you no longer have aristocracy and meritocracry.

  15. Olwyn 15

    I like the smugocracy remark prism. While people rail against welfare, in fact it cushions everyone from deeper and harder questions. Firstly, just about 100% of welfare payments end up in the hands of businesses, having briefly prevented starvation along the way. And a huge part of the welfare bill goes to compensating for the fact that we no longer have any notion of a living wage, along with property prices that bear no relation to the real money generated in this country. If you were to take welfare out of the equation, those howling about it now would be howling even louder. This extension of welfare, however, contributes to the lack of social mobility – one has to be way above the storm to really be above the storm. If you earn a bit more, your accommodation supplement goes down and you find yourself in debt to working for families – to get lucky you have to get very lucky indeed. Meanwhile the smugocracy pockets its indirect welfare payments and pens another letter to the editor about the scourge of the beneficiary.

    • Herodotus 15.1

      I am glad you mentioned “ompensating for the fact that we no longer have any notion of a living wage”. I have long been thinking about this topic. I can see no comment regarding this anywhere. I believe based on first principles hat this subject needs to be brought up, as andy assistance from govt,tax policy, superannuation, min wage etc needs this as its foundation. What quality of life do we wish as a base level for all of us? I think it was stats NZ reported that the average household outgoings were about $950/week

  16. prism 16

    Olwyn you know your stuff. These are the realities but the GAS group don’t want to know these. (GAS Gripe and Sneer). People don’t get easily onto welfare, but then because of the bias against welfare by many and particularly politicians, they make it hard to get off again.
    They do this by cutting back on grants and supplements that enable beneficiaries to manage life plus get out to work, study etc. So if you are poor, get a job, but an entry-level or part-time one not paying well, the withdrawal of supplementary benefits can mean that you end up with less money than before, so you are money poorer and time poorer. And time to look for cheap and second hand things enables a better level of living than just surviving. So less time and less money can make the move to get a good job, better income and welfare independence near kaput.

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    This is a cross post Adventures in Transitland by Darren Davis. I recently visited Brisbane and South East Queensland and came away both impressed while also pondering some key changes to make public transport even better in the region. Here goes with my take on things. A bit of ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    2 days ago
  • Try A Little Kindness.
    My daughter arrived home from the supermarket yesterday and she seemed a bit worried about something. It turned out she wanted to know if someone could get her bank number from a receipt.We wound the story back.She was in the store and there was a man there who was distressed, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • What makes NZFirst tick
    New Zealand’s longest-running political roadshow rolled into Opotiki yesterday, with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters knowing another poll last night showed he would make it back to Parliament and National would need him and his party if they wanted to form a government. The Newshub Reid Research poll ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • September AMA
    Hi,As September draws to a close — I feel it’s probably time to do an Ask Me Anything. You know how it goes: If you have any burning questions, fire away in the comments and I will do my best to answer. You might have questions about Webworm, or podcast ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago
  • Bludgers lying in the scratcher making fools of us all
    The mediocrity who stands to be a Prime Minister has a litany.He uses it a bit like a Koru Lounge card. He will brandish it to say: these people are eligible. And more than that, too: These people are deserving. They have earned this policy.They have a right to this policy. What ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • More “partnerships” (by the look of it) and redress of over $30 million in Treaty settlement wit...
    Buzz from the Beehive Point of Order has waited until now – 3.45pm – for today’s officially posted government announcements.  There have been none. The only addition to the news on the Beehive’s website was posted later yesterday, after we had published our September 26 Buzz report. It came from ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago
  • ALEX HOLLAND: Labour’s spending
    Alex Holland writes –  In 2017 when Labour came to power, crown spending was $76 billion per year. Now in 2023 it is $139 billion per year, which equates to a $63 billion annual increase (over $1 billion extra spend every week!) In 2017, New Zealand’s government debt ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • If not now, then when?
    Labour released its fiscal plan today, promising the same old, same old: "responsibility", balanced books, and of course no new taxes: "Labour will maintain income tax settings to provide consistency and certainty in these volatile times. Now is not the time for additional taxes or to promise billions of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • THE FACTS:  77% of Kiwis believe NZ is becoming more divided
    The Facts has posted –        KEY INSIGHTSOf New Zealander’s polled: Social unity/division 77%believe NZ is becoming more divided (42% ‘much more’ + 35% ‘a little more’) 3%believe NZ is becoming less divided (1% ‘much less’ + 2% ‘a little less’) ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the cynical brutality of the centre-right’s welfare policies
    The centre-right’s enthusiasm for forcing people off the benefit and into paid work is matched only by the enthusiasm (shared by Treasury and the Reserve Bank) for throwing people out of paid work to curb inflation, and achieve the optimal balance of workers to job seekers deemed to be desirable ...
    3 days ago
  • Wednesday’s Chorus: Arthur Grimes on why building many, many more social houses is so critical
    New research shows that tenants in social housing - such as these Wellington apartments - are just as happy as home owners and much happier than private tenants. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The election campaign took an ugly turn yesterday, and in completely the wrong direction. All three ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Old habits
    Media awareness about global warming and climate change has grown fairly steadily since 2004. My impression is that journalists today tend to possess a higher climate literacy than before. This increasing awareness and improved knowledge is encouraging, but there are also some common interpretations which could be more nuanced. ...
    Real ClimateBy rasmus
    3 days ago
  • Bennie Bashing.
    If there’s one thing the mob loves more than keeping Māori in their place, more than getting tough on the gangs, maybe even more than tax cuts. It’s a good old round of beneficiary bashing.Are those meanies in the ACT party stealing your votes because they think David Seymour is ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • The kindest cuts
    Labour kicks off the fiscal credibility battle today with the release of its fiscal plan. National is expected to follow, possibly as soon as Thursday, with its own plan, which may (or may not) address the large hole that the problems with its foreign buyers’ ban might open up. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • Green right turn in Britain? Well, a start
    While it may be unlikely to register in New Zealand’s general election, Britain’s PM Rishi Sunak has done something which might just be important in the long run. He’s announced a far-reaching change in his Conservative government’s approach to environmental, and particularly net zero, policy. The starting point – ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    3 days ago
  • At a glance – How do human CO2 emissions compare to natural CO2 emissions?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    3 days ago
  • How could this happen?
    Canada is in uproar after the exposure that its parliament on September 22 provided a standing ovation to a Nazi veteran who had been invited into the chamber to participate in the parliamentary welcome to Ukrainian President Zelensky. Yaroslav Hunka, 98, a Ukrainian man who volunteered for service in ...
    3 days ago
  • Always Be Campaigning
    The big screen is a great place to lay out the ways of the salesman. He comes ready-made for Panto, ripe for lampooning.This is not to disparage that life. I have known many good people of that kind. But there is a type, brazen as all get out. The camera ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • STEPHEN FRANKS: Press seek to publicly shame doctor – we must push back
    The following is a message sent yesterday from lawyer Stephen Franks on behalf of the Free Speech Union. I don’t like to interrupt first thing Monday morning, but we’ve just become aware of a case where we think immediate and overwhelming attention could help turn the tide. It involves someone ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Competing on cruelty
    The right-wing message calendar is clearly reading "cruelty" today, because both National and NZ First have released beneficiary-bashing policies. National is promising a "traffic light" system to police and kick beneficiaries, which will no doubt be accompanied by arbitrary internal targets to classify people as "orange" or "red" to keep ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Further funding for Pharmac (forgotten in the Budget?) looks like a $1bn appeal from a PM in need of...
    Buzz from the Beehive One Labour plan  – for 3000 more public homes by 2025 – is the most recent to be posted on the government’s official website. Another – a prime ministerial promise of more funding for Pharmac – has been released as a Labour Party press statement. Who ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: The Vested interests shaping National Party policies
    As the National Party gets closer to government, lobbyists and business interests will be lining up for influence and to get policies adopted. It’s therefore in the public interest to have much more scrutiny and transparency about potential conflicts of interests that might arise. One of the key individuals of ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • Labour may be on way out of power and NZ First back in – but will Peters go into coalition with Na...
    Voters  are deserting Labour in droves, despite Chris  Hipkins’  valiant  rearguard  action.  So  where  are they  heading?  Clearly  not all of them are going to vote National, which concedes that  the  outcome  will be “close”. To the Right of National, the ACT party just a  few weeks  ago  was ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    4 days ago
  • GRAHAM ADAMS: Will the racists please stand up?
    Accusations of racism by journalists and MPs are being called out. Graham Adams writes –    With the election less than three weeks away, what co-governance means in practice — including in water management, education, planning law and local government — remains largely obscure. Which is hardly ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on whether Winston Peters can be a moderating influence
    As the centre-right has (finally!) been subjected to media interrogation, the polls are indicating that some voters may be starting to have second thoughts about the wisdom of giving National and ACT the power to govern alone. That’s why yesterday’s Newshub/Reid Research poll had the National/ACT combo dropping to 60 ...
    4 days ago
  • Tuesday’s Chorus: RBNZ set to rain on National's victory parade
    ANZ has increased its forecast for house inflation later this year on signs of growing momentum in the market ahead of the election. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: National has campaigned against the Labour Government’s record on inflation and mortgage rates, but there’s now a growing chance the Reserve ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • After a Pittsburgh coal processing plant closed, ER visits plummeted
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Katie Myers. This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. Pittsburgh, in its founding, was blessed and cursed with two abundant natural resources: free-flowing rivers and a nearby coal seam. ...
    4 days ago
  • September-23 AT Board Meeting
    Today the AT board meet again and once again I’ve taken a look at what’s on the agenda to find the most interesting items. Closed Agenda Interestingly when I first looked at the agendas this paper was there but at the time of writing this post it had been ...
    4 days ago
  • Electorate Watch: West Coast-Tasman
    Continuing my series on interesting electorates, today it’s West Coast-Tasman.A long thin electorate running down the northern half of the west coast of the South Island. Think sand flies, beautiful landscapes, lots of rain, Pike River, alternative lifestylers, whitebaiting, and the spiritual home of the Labour Party. A brief word ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Big money brings Winston back
    National leader Christopher Luxon yesterday morning conceded it and last night’s Newshub poll confirmed it; Winston Peters and NZ First are not only back but highly likely to be part of the next government. It is a remarkable comeback for a party that was tossed out of Parliament in ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 20 days until Election Day, 7 until early voting begins… but what changes will we really see here?
    As this blogger, alongside many others, has already posited in another forum: we all know the National Party’s “budget” (meaning this concept of even adding up numbers properly is doing a lot of heavy, heavy lifting right now) is utter and complete bunk (read hung, drawn and quartered and ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    4 days ago
  • A night out
    Everyone was asking, Are you nervous? and my response was various forms of God, yes.I've written more speeches than I can count; not much surprises me when the speaker gets to their feet and the room goes quiet.But a play? Never.YOU CAME! THANK YOU! Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • A pallid shade of Green III
    Clearly Labour's focus groups are telling it that it needs to pay more attention to climate change - because hot on the heels of their weaksauce energy efficiency pilot programme and not-great-but-better-than-nothing solar grants, they've released a full climate manifesto. Unfortunately, the core policies in it - a second Emissions ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • A coalition of racism, cruelty, and chaos
    Today's big political news is that after months of wibbling, National's Chris Luxon has finally confirmed that he is willing to work with Winston Peters to become Prime Minister. Which is expected, but I guess it tells us something about which way the polls are going. Which raises the question: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • More migrant workers should help generate the tax income needed to provide benefits for job seekers
    Buzz from the Beehive Under something described as a “rebalance” of its immigration rules, the Government has adopted four of five recommendations made in an independent review released in July, The fifth, which called on the government to specify criteria for out-of-hours compliance visits similar to those used during ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Letter To Luxon.
    Some of you might know Gerard Otto (G), and his G News platform. This morning he wrote a letter to Christopher Luxon which I particularly enjoyed, and with his agreement I’m sharing it with you in this guest newsletter.If you’d like to make a contribution to support Gerard’s work you ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • LINDSAY MITCHELL: Alarming trend in benefit numbers
    Lindsay Mitchell writes –  While there will not be another quarterly release of benefit numbers prior to the election, limited weekly reporting continues and is showing an alarming trend. Because there is a seasonal component to benefit number fluctuations it is crucial to compare like with like. In ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON: Has there been external structural change?
    A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase.   Brian Easton writes –  Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • CRL Progress – Sep-23
    It’s been a while since we looked at the latest with the City Rail Link and there’s been some fantastic milestones recently. To start with, and most recently, CRL have released an awesome video showing a full fly-through of one of the tunnels. Come fly with us! You asked for ...
    5 days ago
  • Monday’s Chorus: Not building nearly enough
    We are heading into another period of fast population growth without matching increased home building or infrastructure investment.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Labour and National detailed their house building and migration approaches over the weekend, with both pledging fast population growth policies without enough house building or infrastructure investment ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Game on; Hipkins comes out punching
    Labour leader Chris Hipkins yesterday took the gloves off and laid into National and its leader Christopher Luxon. For many in Labour – and particularly for some at the top of the caucus and the party — it would not have been a moment too soon. POLITIK is aware ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • Tax Cut Austerity Blues.
    The leaders have had their go, they’ve told us the “what?” and the “why?” of their promises. Now it’s the turn of the would be Finance Ministers to tell us the “how?”, the “how much?”, and the “when?”A chance for those competing for the second most powerful job in the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • MIKE GRIMSHAW:  It’s the economy – and the spirit – Stupid…
    Mike Grimshaw writes – Over the past 30-odd years it’s become almost an orthodoxy to blame or invoke neoliberalism for the failures of New Zealand society. On the left the usual response goes something like, neoliberalism is the cause of everything that’s gone wrong and the answer ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #38
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Sep 17, 2023 thru Sat, Sep 23, 2023. Story of the Week  Opinion: Let’s free ourselves from the story of economic growth A relentless focus on economic growth has ushered in ...
    6 days ago
  • The End Of The World.
    Have you been looking out of your window for signs of the apocalypse? Don’t worry, you haven’t been door knocked by a representative of the Brian Tamaki party. They’re probably a bit busy this morning spruiking salvation, or getting ready to march on our parliament, which is closed. No, I’ve ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago
  • Climate Town: The Brainwashing Of America's Children
    Climate Town is the YouTube channel of Rollie Williams and a ragtag team of climate communicators, creatives and comedians. They examine climate change in a way that doesn’t make you want to eat a cyanide pill. Get informed about the climate crisis before the weather does it for you. The latest ...
    1 week ago
  • Has There Been External Structural Change?
    A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase. Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was similar to the May Budget BEFU, ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • Another Labour bully
    Back in June, we learned that Kiri Allan was a Parliamentary bully. And now there's another one: Labour MP Shanan Halbert: The Labour Party was alerted to concerns about [Halbert's] alleged behaviour a year ago but because staffers wanted to remain anonymous, no formal process was undertaken [...] The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Ignoring our biggest problem
    Its that time in the election season where the status quo parties are busy accusing each other of having fiscal holes in a desperate effort to appear more "responsible" (but not, you understand, by promising to tax wealth or land to give the government the revenue it needs to do ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • JERRY COYNE: A good summary of the mess that is science education in New Zealand
    JERRY COYNE writes –  If you want to see what the government of New Zealand is up to with respect to science education, you can’t do better than listening to this video/slideshow by two exponents of the “we-need-two-knowledge-systems” view. I’ve gotten a lot of scary stuff from Kiwi ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 week ago
  • Good news on the GDP front is accompanied by news of a $5m govt boost for Supercars (but what about ...
    Buzz from the Beehive First, we were treated to the news (from Finance Minister Grant Robertson) that the economy has turned a corner and New Zealand never was in recession.  This was triggered by statistics which showed the economy expanded 0.9 per cent in the June quarter, twice as much as ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago
  • The Scafetta Saga
    It has taken 17 months to get a comment published pointing out the obvious errors in the Scafetta (2022) paper in GRL. Back in March 2022, Nicola Scafetta published a short paper in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) purporting to show through ‘advanced’ means that ‘all models with ECS > ...
    Real ClimateBy Gavin
    1 week ago
  • Friday's Chorus: Penny wise and pound foolish
    TL;DR: In the middle of a climate emergency and in a city prone to earthquakes, Victoria University of Wellington announced yesterday it would stop teaching geophysics, geographic information science and physical geography to save $22 million a year and repay debt. Climate change damage in Aotearoa this year is already ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER: Calling the big dog’s bluff
      For nearly thirty years the pundits have been telling the minor parties that they must be good little puppies and let the big dogs decide. The parties with a plurality of the votes cast must be allowed to govern – even if that means ignoring the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 week ago
  • The electorate swing, Labour limbo and Luxon-Hipkins two-step
     Another poll, another 27 for Labour. It was July the last time one of the reputable TV company polls had Labour's poll percentage starting with a three, so the limbo question is now being asked: how low can you go?It seems such an unlikely question because this doesn't feel like the kind ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    1 week ago
  • A Womance, and a Nomance.
    After the trench warfare of Tuesday night, when the two major parties went head to head, last night was the turn of the minor parties. Hosts Newshub termed it “the Powerbrokers' Debate”.Based on the latest polls the four parties taking part - ACT, the Greens, New Zealand First, and Te ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • New community-level energy projects to support more than 800 Māori households
    Seven more innovative community-scale energy projects will receive government funding through the Māori and Public Housing Renewable Energy Fund to bring more affordable, locally generated clean energy to more than 800 Māori households, Energy and Resources Minister Dr Megan Woods says. “We’ve already funded 42 small-scale clean energy projects that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Huge boost to Te Tai Tokerau flood resilience
    The Government has approved new funding that will boost resilience and greatly reduce the risk of major flood damage across Te Tai Tokerau. Significant weather events this year caused severe flooding and damage across the region. The $8.9m will be used to provide some of the smaller communities and maraes ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Napier’s largest public housing development comes with solar
    The largest public housing development in Napier for many years has been recently completed and has the added benefit of innovative solar technology, thanks to Government programmes, says Housing Minister Dr Megan Woods. The 24 warm, dry homes are in Seddon Crescent, Marewa and Megan Woods says the whanau living ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Te Whānau a Apanui and the Crown initial Deed of Settlement I Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me...
    Māori: Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna te Whakaaetanga Whakataunga Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna i tētahi Whakaaetanga Whakataunga hei whakamihi i ō rātou tāhuhu kerēme Tiriti o Waitangi. E tekau mā rua ngā hapū o roto mai o Te Whānau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Plan for 3,000 more public homes by 2025 – regions set to benefit
    Regions around the country will get significant boosts of public housing in the next two years, as outlined in the latest public housing plan update, released by the Housing Minister, Dr Megan Woods. “We’re delivering the most public homes each year since the Nash government of the 1950s with one ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Immigration settings updates
    Judicial warrant process for out-of-hours compliance visits 2023/24 Recognised Seasonal Employer cap increased by 500 Additional roles for Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement More roles added to Green List Three-month extension for onshore Recovery Visa holders The Government has confirmed a number of updates to immigration settings as part of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Poroporoaki: Tā Patrick (Patu) Wahanga Hohepa
    Tangi ngunguru ana ngā tai ki te wahapū o Hokianga Whakapau Karakia. Tārehu ana ngā pae maunga ki Te Puna o te Ao Marama. Korihi tangi ana ngā manu, kua hinga he kauri nui ki te Wao Nui o Tāne. He Toa. He Pou. He Ahorangi. E papaki tū ana ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Renewable energy fund to support community resilience
    40 solar energy systems on community buildings in regions affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events Virtual capability-building hub to support community organisations get projects off the ground Boost for community-level renewable energy projects across the country At least 40 community buildings used to support the emergency response ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • COVID-19 funding returned to Government
    The lifting of COVID-19 isolation and mask mandates in August has resulted in a return of almost $50m in savings and recovered contingencies, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Following the revocation of mandates and isolation, specialised COVID-19 telehealth and alternative isolation accommodation are among the operational elements ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Appointment of District Court Judge
    Susie Houghton of Auckland has been appointed as a new District Court Judge, to serve on the Family Court, Attorney-General David Parker said today.  Judge Houghton has acted as a lawyer for child for more than 20 years. She has acted on matters relating to the Hague Convention, an international ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government invests further in Central Hawke’s Bay resilience
    The Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt boost for Hawke’s Bay cyclone waste clean-up
    Another $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Taupō Supercars revs up with Government support
    The future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • There is no recession in NZ, economy grows nearly 1 percent in June quarter
    The economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Highest legal protection for New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs
    The Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today.   “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More support for victims of migrant exploitation
    Temporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Strong export boost as NZ economy turns corner
    An export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Funding approved for flood resilience work in Te Karaka
    The Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further business support for cyclone-affected regions
    The Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New maintenance facility at Burnham Military Camp underway
    Defence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Foreign Minister to attend United Nations General Assembly
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Midwives’ pay equity offer reached
    Around 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand provides support to Morocco
    Aotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government invests in West Coast’s roading resilience
    The Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today.  A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Government invests in Greymouth’s future
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