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The numbers man

Written By: - Date published: 8:47 am, January 27th, 2012 - 29 comments
Categories: john key - Tags:

Key didn’t exactly live up to his brand as the master politician and numbers man yesterday:

  • Key in the tea tapes: “we will get to 50. 49-50, anything around there will be good enough. When you are where we are the risk is a landslide” – Oops. 47.3%, one seat majority for rightwing policies
  • On Winston: “That’s a shut door. He’s currently at 2.5-3. He’ll poll 3 this time. A lot of his constituents have died.” – Oops. 6.6% and back.
  • “We are still on track to post a surplus in 2014/15 … in the range of $300 to $500 million”. – Oops. That’s down three-quarters from his Budget promise.

29 comments on “The numbers man ”

  1. Nick 1

    Key is rich so he must know what he’s talking about. Its a dinnamic situation, give him a break.

  2. King Kong 2

    Stupid old Key. What an idiot. Of course we all know he should have prefaced his comments with “unless this conversation is being illegally recorded and TV3 make a gigantic fuss about it in which case Winston, aided by some usefull idiots of the left, will gain some political spotlight.”

    He needs to take a leaf out of Jim “the prophet” Andertons book who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor.

    • Lanthanide 2.1

      “He needs to take a leaf out of Jim “the prophet” Andertons book who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor.”

      He did no such thing. Just more proof of your favourite hang-out, though.

    • Policy Parrot 2.2

      When you use the Pale Whale as your source – you immediately lose all credibility. Nice own goal.

    • Hami Shearlie 2.3

      I bet Jim’s thrilled that he never became the Mayor now!! What a mess!! Bob Parker, back to his old tricks with secret meetings etc, and the public braying for early local body elections. Seems the people in Christchurch are finally getting sick of Bob Parker’s carefully modulated voice – so contrived and slick!!

      • mik e 2.3.1

        What happened to the over priced buildings Bob Parker bought off the bankrupt property investor. Did the earth quake deal to them and leave CHCH another $ 7 million out of pocket.

      • felix 2.3.2

        If Anderton had become Mayor, the entire council would’ve been dissolved by National a year ago.

    • felix 2.4

      “who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor”

      Proof please KK. Only person I recall saying anything of the sort was Slater, and even he admitted it was all a lie.

      Crikey, what does that make you?

  3. Colonial Viper 3

    Key was pretty damn close with his 49%-50% estimate. At 47.3% that’s less than 2% error.

    Of course he totally fumbled when it came to guessing NZ1 and ACT’s results.

    I think its also safe to add that the forecast surplus and growth numbers are going to come down even further in the next 6 months.

    • Lanthanide 3.1

      The numbers were always a fantasy, and everyone knew it. Even the media, which makes me wonder why they didn’t grill him on it.

      I’m not sure that Labour’s figures were much better, though.

    • beachbum 3.2

      I have seen comment here previously that the Tea Cup tape may have cost him up to 5%. So he was reasonably close with his prediction.

      It is reasonably safe to assume that unless there is some major turnaround there may be a change of Govt nest time. It is not easy to stay in for three terms and I think that third term Govts can become a bit complacent and lose their edge a bit.

      I do not recall any “experts” showing Winstons Party getting back in.

      • Colonial Viper 3.2.1

        I have seen comment here previously that the Tea Cup tape may have cost him up to 5%. So he was reasonably close with his prediction.

        Nope. No one said that.

        People who run Businesses who take the gamble ,and employ people are just evil rich pricks in Labours eyes.

        I knew by Tuesday of election week that Winston was going to get back in, and get back in big.

      • Jack 3.2.2

        All but one… Horizon Polls… they had him up to 9 percent… That last week before the election, National, that idiot Farrar, and every right wing blog tore into Winston. They were relentless and as usual the main news media supported them. I think that had brought Winston’s numbers down.
        Key was petrified because Winston almost was the king maker… Key’s worse nightmare. Now I hope Winston rips into Key and takes Farrar to court for claims that Peters was an illegal candidate those 2 days before the election. Talk about low lifes.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.3

      By 2014/5 they’ll still be sitting in the minus ten billion range. If you ever wanted a good example of a spend and hope government then the one we have is the one you’ve waited for.

  4. tsmithfield 4

    If it was the speculated comments about the NZ1st support base that caused the surge in NZ1st support, then Key can’t really be criticised for the estimate he gave on the tape, since the existence and speculated content of tapes hadn’t been publicized at that stage.

    • Colonial Viper 4.1

      Key;s estimate on NAT’s own results were very good. His estimates on ACT and NZ1 were way off the mark.

  5. ak 5

    When you are where we are the risk is a landslide

    Sublime. Smug confidence gushing through sleek sheets like an adolescent’s wet dream.

    Translation: we won’t need you Banksie, but I enjoy any old craven suck-ups, anytime. Especially when I can twist the knife in Don’s back at the same time.

    When you are where we are, the risk is more ominously concrete: a wounded, insecure egotist on the way down, and his creators with one last chance at payback.

    Prediction: the media’s best efforts to hatemonger via “welfare reform” will not hold the polls: meltdown ahead, snap election 13.

  6. Karl Sinclair 6

    Leibniz believed that much of human reasoning could be reduced to calculations of a sort, and that such calculations could resolve many differences of opinion:

    The only way to rectify our reasonings is to make them as tangible as those of the Mathematicians, so that we can find our error at a glance, and when there are disputes among persons, we can simply say: Let us calculate [calculemus], without further ado, to see who is right.[40]

    Mr Poster Boy Keys, you bore me…… I down grade you to junk (D to be precise).

    http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock?page=2

    New Zealand Debt: 2008 (National won election 08/11/2011)
    Public debt: $19,963,934,426
    Public debt per person $4,658.17
    Popluation: 4,300,000
    Public debt as % of GDP 17.4%
    Total annual debt change: -18.3%

    New Zealand Debt: 2012 (National still in power)
    Public debt: $47,345,753,425
    Public debt per person $10,677.75
    Popluation: 4,400,000
    Public debt as % of GDP 31.8%
    Total annual debt change: 14.8%

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      Nice work.

      Although I will say that in real life and in general, very few things can be accurately and safely mathematised.

      • beachbum 6.1.1

        So who actually puts the budget together? is it treasury (supposedly apolitical) based on interpreting the Govts policies, or someone else?

        Obviously Govt of day is responsible for the budget, but I just wondered at the process to get the budget.

        Budgets are just that – predictions based on assumptions – they can never be promises.

      • Karl Sinclair 6.1.2

        Agree, debate is best at the margins of error….. Unfortunately the trend is toward idiot statments like Mum & Dad Investors (i.e. Keys justification for selling assets….), so it does not even come close to a decent debate…..

        Ironic that the woman who analysed John Keys body language during the pre election debate called him a man of objectivity and reason (only behind closed doors it appears)

        In order for the Nats to continue their margin of control they have to ensure people don’t get a proper analysis.

        • aerobubble 6.1.2.1

          Key’s speculator job was to be objective behind close doors, talk up lemons, and talk down prospects. The man is a middle man.

          • Colonial Viper 6.1.2.1.1

            A middle man who made his fortune by putting other peoples’ money at risk.

    • eme 6.2

      Karl, simple to understand numbers, that is the way to argue.
      Those numbers need to be out there in the limelight for everybody to see, every day.
      And we need to keep tracking them..

      Here is hoping they will turn around, unfortunately not much for the next 3 years..r

  7. Wetfootmammal 7

    Key’s not a numbers man – he’s a necromancer.

  8. Ardub R W Davis 8

    If you really want tp know what is going on in the world. Turn on TV 7 On Weds and look up when The Secret s of the Seven Sisters is airing. I wondered why this Govt wants to shut down T V 7. This is the only Station that tells us just a little bit of the truth.

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