web analytics

The numbers man

Written By: - Date published: 8:47 am, January 27th, 2012 - 29 comments
Categories: john key - Tags:

Key didn’t exactly live up to his brand as the master politician and numbers man yesterday:

  • Key in the tea tapes: “we will get to 50. 49-50, anything around there will be good enough. When you are where we are the risk is a landslide” – Oops. 47.3%, one seat majority for rightwing policies
  • On Winston: “That’s a shut door. He’s currently at 2.5-3. He’ll poll 3 this time. A lot of his constituents have died.” – Oops. 6.6% and back.
  • “We are still on track to post a surplus in 2014/15 … in the range of $300 to $500 million”. – Oops. That’s down three-quarters from his Budget promise.

29 comments on “The numbers man ”

  1. Nick 1

    Key is rich so he must know what he’s talking about. Its a dinnamic situation, give him a break.

  2. King Kong 2

    Stupid old Key. What an idiot. Of course we all know he should have prefaced his comments with “unless this conversation is being illegally recorded and TV3 make a gigantic fuss about it in which case Winston, aided by some usefull idiots of the left, will gain some political spotlight.”

    He needs to take a leaf out of Jim “the prophet” Andertons book who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor.

    • Lanthanide 2.1

      “He needs to take a leaf out of Jim “the prophet” Andertons book who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor.”

      He did no such thing. Just more proof of your favourite hang-out, though.

    • Policy Parrot 2.2

      When you use the Pale Whale as your source – you immediately lose all credibility. Nice own goal.

    • Hami Shearlie 2.3

      I bet Jim’s thrilled that he never became the Mayor now!! What a mess!! Bob Parker, back to his old tricks with secret meetings etc, and the public braying for early local body elections. Seems the people in Christchurch are finally getting sick of Bob Parker’s carefully modulated voice – so contrived and slick!!

      • mik e 2.3.1

        What happened to the over priced buildings Bob Parker bought off the bankrupt property investor. Did the earth quake deal to them and leave CHCH another $ 7 million out of pocket.

      • felix 2.3.2

        If Anderton had become Mayor, the entire council would’ve been dissolved by National a year ago.

    • felix 2.4

      “who successfully predicted that an earthquake would foil his ambitions to be Mayor”

      Proof please KK. Only person I recall saying anything of the sort was Slater, and even he admitted it was all a lie.

      Crikey, what does that make you?

  3. Colonial Viper 3

    Key was pretty damn close with his 49%-50% estimate. At 47.3% that’s less than 2% error.

    Of course he totally fumbled when it came to guessing NZ1 and ACT’s results.

    I think its also safe to add that the forecast surplus and growth numbers are going to come down even further in the next 6 months.

    • Lanthanide 3.1

      The numbers were always a fantasy, and everyone knew it. Even the media, which makes me wonder why they didn’t grill him on it.

      I’m not sure that Labour’s figures were much better, though.

    • beachbum 3.2

      I have seen comment here previously that the Tea Cup tape may have cost him up to 5%. So he was reasonably close with his prediction.

      It is reasonably safe to assume that unless there is some major turnaround there may be a change of Govt nest time. It is not easy to stay in for three terms and I think that third term Govts can become a bit complacent and lose their edge a bit.

      I do not recall any “experts” showing Winstons Party getting back in.

      • Colonial Viper 3.2.1

        I have seen comment here previously that the Tea Cup tape may have cost him up to 5%. So he was reasonably close with his prediction.

        Nope. No one said that.

        People who run Businesses who take the gamble ,and employ people are just evil rich pricks in Labours eyes.

        I knew by Tuesday of election week that Winston was going to get back in, and get back in big.

      • Jack 3.2.2

        All but one… Horizon Polls… they had him up to 9 percent… That last week before the election, National, that idiot Farrar, and every right wing blog tore into Winston. They were relentless and as usual the main news media supported them. I think that had brought Winston’s numbers down.
        Key was petrified because Winston almost was the king maker… Key’s worse nightmare. Now I hope Winston rips into Key and takes Farrar to court for claims that Peters was an illegal candidate those 2 days before the election. Talk about low lifes.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.3

      By 2014/5 they’ll still be sitting in the minus ten billion range. If you ever wanted a good example of a spend and hope government then the one we have is the one you’ve waited for.

  4. tsmithfield 4

    If it was the speculated comments about the NZ1st support base that caused the surge in NZ1st support, then Key can’t really be criticised for the estimate he gave on the tape, since the existence and speculated content of tapes hadn’t been publicized at that stage.

    • Colonial Viper 4.1

      Key;s estimate on NAT’s own results were very good. His estimates on ACT and NZ1 were way off the mark.

  5. ak 5

    When you are where we are the risk is a landslide

    Sublime. Smug confidence gushing through sleek sheets like an adolescent’s wet dream.

    Translation: we won’t need you Banksie, but I enjoy any old craven suck-ups, anytime. Especially when I can twist the knife in Don’s back at the same time.

    When you are where we are, the risk is more ominously concrete: a wounded, insecure egotist on the way down, and his creators with one last chance at payback.

    Prediction: the media’s best efforts to hatemonger via “welfare reform” will not hold the polls: meltdown ahead, snap election 13.

  6. Karl Sinclair 6

    Leibniz believed that much of human reasoning could be reduced to calculations of a sort, and that such calculations could resolve many differences of opinion:

    The only way to rectify our reasonings is to make them as tangible as those of the Mathematicians, so that we can find our error at a glance, and when there are disputes among persons, we can simply say: Let us calculate [calculemus], without further ado, to see who is right.[40]

    Mr Poster Boy Keys, you bore me…… I down grade you to junk (D to be precise).

    http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock?page=2

    New Zealand Debt: 2008 (National won election 08/11/2011)
    Public debt: $19,963,934,426
    Public debt per person $4,658.17
    Popluation: 4,300,000
    Public debt as % of GDP 17.4%
    Total annual debt change: -18.3%

    New Zealand Debt: 2012 (National still in power)
    Public debt: $47,345,753,425
    Public debt per person $10,677.75
    Popluation: 4,400,000
    Public debt as % of GDP 31.8%
    Total annual debt change: 14.8%

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      Nice work.

      Although I will say that in real life and in general, very few things can be accurately and safely mathematised.

      • beachbum 6.1.1

        So who actually puts the budget together? is it treasury (supposedly apolitical) based on interpreting the Govts policies, or someone else?

        Obviously Govt of day is responsible for the budget, but I just wondered at the process to get the budget.

        Budgets are just that – predictions based on assumptions – they can never be promises.

      • Karl Sinclair 6.1.2

        Agree, debate is best at the margins of error….. Unfortunately the trend is toward idiot statments like Mum & Dad Investors (i.e. Keys justification for selling assets….), so it does not even come close to a decent debate…..

        Ironic that the woman who analysed John Keys body language during the pre election debate called him a man of objectivity and reason (only behind closed doors it appears)

        In order for the Nats to continue their margin of control they have to ensure people don’t get a proper analysis.

        • aerobubble 6.1.2.1

          Key’s speculator job was to be objective behind close doors, talk up lemons, and talk down prospects. The man is a middle man.

          • Colonial Viper 6.1.2.1.1

            A middle man who made his fortune by putting other peoples’ money at risk.

    • eme 6.2

      Karl, simple to understand numbers, that is the way to argue.
      Those numbers need to be out there in the limelight for everybody to see, every day.
      And we need to keep tracking them..

      Here is hoping they will turn around, unfortunately not much for the next 3 years..r

  7. Wetfootmammal 7

    Key’s not a numbers man – he’s a necromancer.

  8. Ardub R W Davis 8

    If you really want tp know what is going on in the world. Turn on TV 7 On Weds and look up when The Secret s of the Seven Sisters is airing. I wondered why this Govt wants to shut down T V 7. This is the only Station that tells us just a little bit of the truth.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • United Nations General Assembly: 76th General Debate Statement
    E ngā Mana, e ngā Reo, Rau Rangatira mā o tēnei Whare Nui o te Ao Prestigious people, Speakers of note, Chiefs one and all of this General Assembly Ngā mihi mahana ki o koutou katoa, mai i toku Whenua o Aotearoa Warm greetings to you all from my home ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • APEC 2021 Women and the Economy Forum prioritises women’s economic empowerment
    Minister for Women Jan Tinetti today chaired the virtual APEC 2021 Women and the Economy Forum, which is working to address outstanding issues for women and girls across the region as it recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. The forum brought together Ministers and representatives from 21 economies to discuss gender ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    9 hours ago
  • Upper Hauraki to move to Alert Level 2
    Upper Hauraki will move to Alert Level 2 from 11:59pm tomorrow, 25 September, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. After positive cases were detected in the Upper Hauraki area on Sunday, extra Alert Level restrictions were put in place to immediately prevent any wider transmission of the virus.  “We’ve ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Report into Aotearoa New Zealand’s export controls system released
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today welcomed the findings of an independent review into Aotearoa New Zealand’s export controls system, which regulates the export of goods to foreign militaries, police forces or paramilitaries. Produced by David Smol, a former Chief Executive of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New District Court Judge appointed
    Attorney-General David Parker has announced the appointment of Brett Crowley of Wellington as a District Court Judge.  He is currently the Wellington Public Defender and started his career as a staff solicitor working in a range of litigation including criminal defence work. He went to the bar in 1999 specialising ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Mental health stocktake shows strong progress
    The first report of the Government’s Implementation Unit has found strong progress has been made since the Mental Health and Addictions Package was announced in 2019. “The report notes most initiatives funded in the Budget 2019 package are on track to deliver what is expected by 2023/24,” Grant Robertson said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Working together to grow the West Coast
    A project that has been crucial in allowing businesses to continue during the tourism downturn is among a number of initiatives to receive a boost from the Government’s Jobs For Nature programme, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. Sustaining South Westland is an extension of an initiative set up last year ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Next steps to improve safety in wake of Whakaari White Island tragedy
    The Government is moving to improve safety in light of the Whakaari White Island tragedy and has released proposals to reinforce safety standards in registered adventure activities. The package of proposals includes: Strengthening requirements for how operators, landowners and the regulator manage natural hazard risks Improving how risks are monitored, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New Zealand donates more COVID-19 vaccines to COVAX and the Pacific
    Foreign Affairs Minister Hon Nanaia Mahuta and Associate Health Minister Aupito William Sio announced today that New Zealand is donating additional Pfizer vaccines to the Pacific and AstraZeneca vaccines to the COVAX Facility, to support equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines. “New Zealand is donating 708,000 doses of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech to the Property Council of New Zealand
    Kia ora koutou katoa   Is it a pleasure to be able to speak with you today, and to be able to answer some questions you may have. I would like to acknowledge the organisers of this event, the Property Council. The theme of this year’s conference is City Shapers. Together ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Additional MIQ for Christchurch
    An additional hotel will be added to our network of managed isolation and quarantine facilities, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “I have approved and Cabinet is in the final stages of signing off The Quality Hotel Elms in Christchurch as a new managed isolation facility,” Chris Hipkins said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • NZ COVID-19 response earns another major digital investment
    Minister for the Digital Economy and Communications Dr David Clark welcomes Amazon’s Web Services’ (AWS) decision to establish a Cloud Region on New Zealand shores, further boosting New Zealand’s growing digital sector, and providing a vote of confidence in the direction of New Zealand’s economic recovery. “Amazon is the second ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand invests in cutting edge cancer R&D
    Scaling up the manufacture of CAR T-cell cancer therapy for clinical trials Advancing New Zealand’s biomedical manufacturing capability Supporting future international scientific collaborations Transforming cancer care with targeted, affordable solutions Research, Science and Innovation Minister Hon Dr Megan Woods has announced that the fight against COVID-19 will not stop the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Expert group appointed to lead New Zealand’s future health system
    An outstanding group of people with extensive and wide-ranging governance and health experience have been appointed to lead the Māori Health Authority and Health New Zealand, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “This Government is building a truly national health system to provide consistent, high-quality health services right across the country. This ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Funding to help clean up contaminated sites
    The Government is supporting the clean-up of contaminated sites in Northland, Dunedin and Southland to reduce risk to people’s health and protect the environment. Environment Minister David Parker said the funding announced today, through the Contaminated Sites Remediation Fund, will help us turn previously hazardous sites into safe, usable public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Predator Free apprenticeships open up new job opportunities
    The expansion of a predator free apprenticeship programme is an opportunity for more people to kick-start a conservation career, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “The Predator Free Apprenticeship Programme is focused on increasing the number of skilled predator control operators in New Zealand through a two-year training programme. “The Trust ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Further NCEA support confirmed for Auckland students
    The number of Learning Recognition Credits for senior secondary school students will be increased for Auckland students, Education Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. This recognises the extended time these students will spend in Alert Levels 3 and 4. “It means students in Auckland will have a fair opportunity to attain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Long-term pathway next step to better mental wellbeing for New Zealanders
    The Government is taking a new approach to support people who experience mental distress, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “Kia Manawanui Aotearoa – Long-term pathway to mental wellbeing (Kia Manawanui) is the first 10-year plan of its kind that targets the cause of mental distress and also sets out how ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Keeping our Police safe to keep our communities safe
    The Government is committed to keeping our frontline police officers safe, so they in turn can keep New Zealanders safe – with one of the largest investments in frontline safety announced by Police Minister Poto Williams at the Police College today.   The $45 million investment includes $15.496 million in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Clean Vehicles Bill passes first checkpoint
    The Land Transport (Clean Vehicles) Amendment Bill will help New Zealand drive down transport emissions by cleaning up the light vehicle fleet, Transport Minister Michael Wood says. The Bill passed its first reading today and will establish the legislative framework for key parts of the Government’s Clean Car Package, including ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Funding boost supports ongoing Māori COVID-19 response
    The Government is responding to the need by whānau Māori and Māori Health providers to support their ongoing work responding to COVID-19 and to continue increasing rates of Māori vaccination, Associate Minister for Health (Māori Health), Peeni Henare and Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson announced today.   This increased ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Significant increase to COVID-19 penalties
    Penalties for breaches of COVID-19 orders are set to significantly increase from early November 2021 to better reflect the seriousness of any behaviour that threatens New Zealand’s response to the virus, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Throughout this Delta outbreak we’ve seen the overwhelming majority of people doing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill returns to Parliament
    The Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill has returned to Parliament for its second reading in an important step towards giving enforcement agencies greater power to protect New Zealanders from terrorist activity. “The Bill addresses longstanding gaps in our counter terrorism legislation that seek to protect New Zealanders and make us safer,” Justice ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Joint Statement: New Zealand and Australian Trade Ministers
    Hon Damien O'Connor MP, New Zealand Minister for Trade and Export Growth, and Hon Dan Tehan MP, Australian Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment, met virtually on Monday 20 September to advance trans-Tasman cooperation under the Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement (CER). CER is one of the most ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Prime Minister’s Post Cabinet Press Conference/COVID-19 Update opening statement
    ***Please check against delivery***   E te tī, e te tā, nau mai rā [To all, I bid you welcome]   As you will have seen earlier, today there are 22 new community cases to report; three of which are in Whakatiwai in the Hauraki area, and the remainder in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Major milestones for Māori COVID-19 vaccine rollout as new campaign launches
    Whānau Ora and Associate Health (Māori Health) Minister Peeni Henare acknowledges two major milestones in the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination programme for Māori. “I am very pleased to announce more than 50 percent of eligible Māori have received their first dose and 25 per cent are now fully vaccinated,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government funding to fight infectious diseases
    $36 million for research into Covid-19 and other infectious diseases The investment will improve our readiness for future pandemics Research will focus on prevention, control, and management of infectious diseases The Government’s investing in a new Infectious Diseases Research Platform to boost Aotearoa New Zealand’s Covid-19 response and preparedness for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Quarantine-free travel with Australia to remain suspended for a further 8 weeks
    Suspension to be reviewed again mid to late November Decision brought forward to enable access from Australia to first tranche of around 3000 rooms in MIQ Air New Zealand working at pace to put on more flights from Australia from October    The suspension of quarantine-free travel (QFT) with Australia has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Extra support for Ethnic Communities to share vaccination information
    Extra support is being made available to Ethnic Communities to help them share COVID-19 vaccination information within their communities, Minister for Diversity, Inclusion and Ethnic Communities Priyanca Radhakrishnan said. “We know we need to get every eligible person in New Zealand vaccinated. A fund being launched today will allow for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • School holidays remain unchanged for Auckland region
    School holidays in Auckland will continue to be held at the same time as the rest of the country, starting from Saturday, 2 October, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “I’ve carefully considered advice on the implications of shifting the dates and concluded that on balance, maintaining the status quo ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government continues crackdown on gangs and organised crime
    Operation Tauwhiro extended until March 2022 Since it was launched in February, Operation Tauwhiro has resulted in:   987 firearms seized $4.99 million in cash seized 865 people charged with a firearms-related offence Gangs and organised crime groups will continue to be relentlessly targeted with the extension of Police’s successful ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to Body Positive 'HIV Treatments Update Seminar 2021'
    E ngā mana E ngā reo E ngā iwi Tēnā koutou katoa Ka huri ki ngā mana whenua o te rohe nei. Tēnā koutou. He mihi hoki ki a tatou kua tau mai nei I raro I te kaupapa o te rā. Nō reira tēnā koutou katoa Acknowledgements It’s a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Power bill changes bring fairness to charges
    A key recommendation of an independent panel to make electricity charges fairer across all households will be put in place, the Energy and Resources Minister Megan Woods has announced. “Phasing out the regulations on ‘low-use’ electricity plans will create a fairer playing field for all New Zealanders and encourage a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ economy’s strong momentum will support rebound from Delta outbreak; COVID fund replenished
    The economy showed strong momentum in the period leading up to the recent Delta COVID-19 outbreak, which bodes well for a solid economic rebound, Grant Robertson said. GDP rose 2.8 percent in the June quarter, following on from a 1.4 percent increase in the previous March quarter. This was a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Projects create benefits into the future
    Making a well-known lake swimmable and helping to halt the decline of the endangered hoiho/yellow-eyed penguins are among a suite of new projects being supported by the Government’s Jobs for Nature programme across the southern South Island, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “It’s no secret that many of our most ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Opening statement for Whāriki Indigenous Small Business Roundtable
      Kei ngā tōpito e wha o te āo e rere ana te mihi maioha ki a koutou nō tawhiti, nō tata mai e tāpiri ana ki tēnei taumata kōrero mo te ao hokohoko arā mā ngā pākihi mo ngā iwi taketake Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou katoa – Pai Mārire.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New members appointed to Kāpuia
    The Government is adding four additional members to Kāpuia, the Ministerial Advisory Group on the Government’s Response to the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the terrorist attack on Christchurch mosques. “I’m looking forward to having Pamela MacNeill, Huia Bramley, Melani Anae and Katherine Dedo  join Kāpuia and contribute to this group’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Timeline confirmed for Emissions Reductions Plan
    Cabinet has agreed to begin consulting on the Emissions Reduction Plan in early October and require that the final plan be released by the end of May next year in line with the 2022 Budget, the Minister of Climate Change, James Shaw confirmed today. “Cabinet’s decision allows organisations and communities ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pay parity pathway for early learning teachers confirmed
    Pay parity conditions and higher funding rates for education and care services will come into force on 1 January, 2022, Minister of Education Chris Hipkins confirmed today. The Government signalled this work in Budget 2021. “From 1 January, 2022, centres opting into the scheme will receive government funding and be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Nurses Organisation Conference 2021
    Kia Ora tatau katoa.   Ka tuku mihi ki nga nēhi, He pou Hauora o Aotearoa, E ora ai tatou.   Whakatau mai  I runga i te kaupapa o te ra Te NZNO conference.   Tena koutou tena koutou Tena tatou katoa   Good morning, and thank you inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago