web analytics

The polls are weird

Written By: - Date published: 11:04 am, September 2nd, 2008 - 10 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: , , , ,

Dave at Big News has a good post up on a vagaries of the polls. It expands on something that Idiot Savant noticed at No Right Turn in his post Priceless.

I/S observed:-

I don’t normally poll blog, but this I can’t resist: according to the graphic for the latest Herald digipoll, the Christian Heritage Party – which disbanded in 2006 in the wake of its former leader Graham Capill’s conviction for child rape – is polling 0.4%, ahead of both the Alliance (which contrary to popular belief, is still around) and (this is the best bit) United Future. So, a non-existent party beats a sitting minister outside cabinet.

Dave’s post How weird is this? then expands:-

But it gets better.

The CHP’s vote has doubled since April – and it is the only party to achieve that feat as well. [ Update: Not true, Act also did].

After some examination, he concludes

Update watch the Kiwi, Family, and United Future vote jump at the next big poll or the one after. If the former two get their act together and let everyone know who they are. Most people – even Christians – don’t know the difference between Kiwi and Family parties.

I’d agree that could happen. I’m just not sure that the little fighting factions will ever get onto a common message.

Comment readers here are probably aware that there is little I like about the art of public polling in New Zealand. The results are all over the place because the methodology is very suspect and not published. In particular they do not show the numbers of people who they were unable to contact (because of lack of landlines or busy lives), the number who refused to participate, and few show the number of undecided voters. It makes them effectively useless for anything except trend changes amongst the politically engaged.

Well almost – this set of observations highlights the other side of the polling problem. So far, voters just haven’t taken that much of an interest in politics so far for the upcoming election. So much so that a significant voting population hasn’t figured out that they are ‘voting’ in the polls for a defunct party.

Thanks to I/S and dave for brightening my morning.

10 comments on “The polls are weird ”

  1. That three freaks answered CHP is a little disturbing, even if it is only a blip. They might have started thinking about religious parties after the recent right to hit your kids referendum debate. I’m happy though – every vote sent in that direction is one that doesn’t go to UF, NZF, ACT or National (I’m assuming that they don’t generally vote Labour or Green).

    How about lowering that anti-democratic threshold though? Lets take it down to 2.5 or 3%.

  2. lprent 2

    Had to be closer to 4 depending on the vagaries of the poll. Usually they’re between 870 and 1000. Not sure exactly what was in that poll. However this has been showing up in these polls for sometime. You can see it at curiablog (on the blogroll on the left).

    I like the threshold. It is just high enough to make it difficult to reach and low enough that it can be done with good organisation. In particular it makes it hard for the one person fiefdoms.

  3. Stephen 3

    Why should the threshold be difficult to reach?

  4. The sample was 775, which is on the low side for a nationwide poll.

    lprent, I think you underestimate how hard it is to get past the threshold. That “good organisation” has to be put up against the very real perception that a vote for a small party is a wasted vote.

    You need an electorate seat to get into Parliament – no party has done it without one. And that means you need to find a place in the country where a plurality of people support your party/candidate, or an incumbent in a strong position who is also radical enough to leave the safety of an established party. It’s a very big ask, and essentially thwarts the intent of MMP, and was recommended against by the commission that reviewed the system. Of course, it suits Labour and National to keep the status quo.

  5. lprent 5

    Well the history of the Knesset is a good example.
    Look at (for example) the ‘pure’ proportional system in Israel which has a not dissimilar sized population.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset#Knesset_Assemblies

    If you look at the composition of the current composition and previous compositions then you’ll notice that coalition building is pretty hard.

    What it doesn’t show there is that the number of times that parties fracture is immense. No threshold means that it is relatively costless.

    The Royal Commission in 1986 pretty well ruled out low threshold systems for exactly that reason. MMP was preferred because of the long-term stability with change that it displayed in Germany.

    BTW: Does anyone have a link for the RC’s report online. I don’t have the hard-copy at work and I wanted to quote from it. I’ll add it to the references.

  6. lprent 6

    George: I know that it is hard, but it isn’t as impossible as it was under FPP. For instance look at Values, Social Credit, and whatever the Bob Jones party was called under FPP.

    But as far as I’m concerned the critical attribute of a political party is that it requires many people to work together. That is also what is required of politicians. There has to be a penalty when they don’t – eg Alliance after 1999, NZF after 1996, etc. A higher threshold is a good incentive.

    I think that it could be dropped a percent at sometime. But I think that that it has to be high enough to get many people with reasonably disparate views having to work together. That to me is a criteria for a political party.

    The only real issue I have with MMP itself is with the list effect of winning a single seat.

    captcha: improving strike

  7. The Royal Commission recommended 4%, and

    “recommended against the adoption of a five percent party vote threshold on the basis that, as it
    represented almost 100,000 party votes, this would be too great an obstacle to the development of new
    and emerging political forces.”

    This might seem like the same thing, but the difference between 4% and 5% for a small party is huge. They also recommended against going lower than 4% for reasons of stability (which I think they overstate slightly – I think that a four person party in a 120 seat parliament is not going to increase instability, when smaller parties don’t have that effect – but the threshold as it stands is an almost insurmountable barrier.

  8. lprent 8

    I’d have been happy with 100k people. That was why I was hunting for the report. I couldn’t remember what they recommended. They worked off the 80k voter level.

    I seem to remember that the 5% was set to make it just over the 100k voter level.

    But since 1986 the size of the electorate has increased. The number of voters is about 2.9 million at present. 4% would give about 116,000 voters – higher than the RC looked at in the first place.

    I suspect that the level should actually be set to a minimum number of votes:-

    5% of 2.9M = 145,000
    4% of 2.9M = 116,000
    3% of 2.9M = 87,000
    2% of 2.9M = 58,000
    1% of 2.9M = 29,000

    I think that a party that cannot get 100k people to agree with it sounds like it isn’t viable. I’d also say that a party that doesn’t hit 100k people doesn’t get list vote at all regardless if they got an electorate seat for the same reason.

  9. Please tell me that the Greens arent over 5%.

  10. lprent 10

    BD: Ummm you can read right? They are consistently over 5% even in this rather strange poll.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Govt congratulates Lisa Carrington on becoming NZ’s most decorated Olympian
    Sport and Recreation Minister Grant Robertson has today congratulated New Zealand Olympic kayaker Lisa Carrington on her exceptional performance at the Tokyo Olympics which has led to her becoming the most decorated New Zealand Olympian. “Lisa is a phenomenal athlete. To win the K1 200m three Olympics in a row, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    11 hours ago
  • Construction sector transformation continues with Network launch
    Housing Minister Hon Dr Megan Woods and Building and Construction Minister Hon Poto Williams today launched the Construction Sector Accord Network. Designed to bring the sector together to lift performance and drive change, the Network is a collective of businesses, government agencies and other organisations committed to a higher performing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • The ‘Tulī Takes Flight’ scholarships announced
    The Associate Minister of Education, Aupito William Sio, has today announced the establishment of the ‘Tulī Takes Flight’ scholarships as part of the goodwill gesture of reconciliation to accompany the Government’s apology to Pacific families and communities impacted by the Dawn Raids. “Education is the key to unlocking success, opportunity, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • 8,000 additional public housing places delivered in major Government milestone 
    New Zealanders now have an extra 8,000 warm, dry public housing places to call home, under a Government public housing programme that is full steam ahead, says Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern. “Of the 74,337 households now being supported in public housing places, more than six thousand (6,503) are living in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • New classrooms and building improvements for central and lower North Island schools
    Six schools across Wellington, Manawatū-Whanganui and Taranaki are getting a funding boost so projects can enter construction and deliver much needed works sooner, Education Minister Chris Hipkins announced today. While visiting Cannons Creek School in Porirua, Chris Hipkins also announced 10 schools in the central and lower North Island that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Restoring the richness of the Rangitata river
    A major Jobs for Nature project to protect and enhance some of the South Island’s most unique habitats and restore the health of the Rangitata River highlights the important role farmers have in caring for the land, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “Canterbury’s braided rivers are an iconic part of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Foreign Minister to take part in ASEAN-related meetings
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will today begin a suite of meetings with her ASEAN and East Asia Summit counterparts, starting with the 11th East Asia Summit (EAS) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting tonight. That will be followed by the ASEAN-New Zealand Ministerial Meeting on Thursday 5 August and the 28th ASEAN Regional ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Arts and heritage venues get helping hand
    A new round of funding to support capital projects will help keep our arts and heritage sector alive and vibrant, Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan announced today.  “Communities work hard to raise funds for arts, culture and heritage related capital projects as they add significant value ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Foreign Ministers welcome opening of New Zealand High Commission in Colombo
    New Zealand and Sri Lanka’s Foreign Ministers, Nanaia Mahuta and Dinesh Gunawardena, have welcomed the opening of the New Zealand High Commission in Colombo next week. The Foreign Ministers, who met virtually yesterday, spoke about the opening of the High Commission as a major milestone in the bilateral relationship. Both ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New Zealand to increase NZDF commitment to the United Nations Command, Republic of Korea
      The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) will deploy three additional personnel to the Republic of Korea, increasing the size of its contribution to the United Nations Command and its Military Armistice Commission from nine to 12 personnel. “Increasing the size of our deployment to the Republic of Korea ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Wages up, unemployment down
    The Government’s efforts to secure the recovery has seen more Kiwis in jobs and higher wages, with unemployment falling to pre-COVID levels and more people in work. Stats NZ figures show unemployment rate fell to 4 percent in the June quarter from 4.6 percent in the March quarter, the lowest ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Poroporoaki: Dr Kihi Ngatai OSM
    Mauao tiketike tūmokemoke mai ana ra koe, papakitia ana e ngā tai kawenga roimata o te motu. E Ngāti Ranginui, mo tō manuhuia kua tīkapea i te rangi. E Ngai Te Rangi, mo tō manutaki kua riro i te hau o Aitū kikini, E Ngāti Pukenga mo tō manutaiko, kua ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government support screen industry with funding for sound stages in West Auckland
    Auckland Film Studios in West Auckland has received funding for a major expansion through the Government’s Infrastructure Reference Group’s (IRG) COVID-19 Response Fund. The Government is investing $30 million of a total $35 million project to construct two 2,000sqm sound stages and development of further workshops and offices, to expand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Protecting unique land for generation next
    The Government is boosting legal protection for critically important natural habitats on private land, Minister of Conservation Kiri Allan says. “An $8 million investment over four years will see Queen Elizabeth II National Trust Ngā Kairauhī Papa (QEII) work with government agencies, councils and others to provide legal protection of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand’s support for Fiji’s COVID-19 response continues with vaccine delivery, operational ...
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta has announced further support for Fiji, including funding support for nursing staff and 100,000 doses of vaccines due to arrive in country today. “Our thoughts remain with Fiji during this incredibly challenging period,” Nanaia Mahuta said. “New Zealand has funded 100,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Poroporoaki: Dr Hōhepa (Joe) Mason
    Ko koe tēnā e te hurumanu e Hōhepa, te tōwenetanga a te iti, te māpihi herenga mahara o te tini, ka tauawhi tonuhia koe e to iwi ki te uma pupuri ai. Me pēhea he kupu kia koutou kua puta i nga ākinga a nga tau kua hori, kua waia ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Finance Minister and RBNZ Governor agree to update MOU on macro-prudential policy
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson and Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr have updated the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on macro-prudential policy to further protect the financial system and support the Government’s housing objectives. “This change will ensure that the Reserve Bank has the flexibility to respond to emerging financial stability risks ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government commits further assistance for drought and flood-affected rural communities
    Farmers and growers affected by this year’s drought or floods in Marlborough, Tasman, West Coat, Canterbury, Otago and the Chatham Islands will have access to Rural Assistance Payments (RAPs) from today, Social Development and Employment Minister Carmel Sepuloni has announced. “The Government is committed to easing the financial pressures on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Cook Islands youth lead Language Week
    The Cook Islands Language Week theme for 2021 highlights the vital role language plays in maintaining young people’s links to their Pacific home, said Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio.  “The Epetoma o te reo Māori Kūki ‘Āirani – Cook Islands Language Week – theme is ‘Ātuitui’ia au ki ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government offers formal apology for Dawn Raids
    A formal and unreserved apology for the Dawn Raids The Government will offer education scholarships as part of the apology Manaaki New Zealand Short Term Scholarship Training courses Support Pacific artists and historians to develop a comprehensive written and oral account of the Dawn Raids Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech to Dawn Raids Apology
    Tēnā koutou katoa, Kia orana kotou katoatoa, Fakaalofa lahi atu ki mutolu oti, Tālofa nī, Mālō nī koutou, Ni sa bula vinaka, Fakatalofa atu, Noa'ia 'e mauri, Kam na mauri, Malo e lelei, Sioto'ofa, Mālō lava le lagi e mamā ma le soifua maua, Oue tulou, tulou atu, tulouna lava ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Bridging the gap – last piece of Northcote Safe Cycle Route now complete
    The opening of two bridges over Auckland’s Northern Motorway is the last link of a cycling and walking route which provides a safe, active alternative for students and commuters, Transport Minister Michael Wood said today. Michael Wood cut the ribbon for the completion of the Northcote Safe Cycle Route, at ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Progress in establishment of Aged Care Commissioner
    Recruitment for an Aged Care Commissioner will start next month, to ensure greater oversight of New Zealand’s aged care sector. “This sector is responsible for supporting a large and often vulnerable population. While most people are able to access quality care, there have been cases where that care has fallen ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New record number of homes consented
    In the year ended June 2021, the actual number of new dwellings consented was 44,299, up 18 percent from the June 2020 year. In June 2021, the seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented rose 3.8 percent. In June 2021, 4,310 new dwellings were consented, an increase of 3.8 per ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Communities backed to tackle wilding pines
    Twelve community projects across New Zealand will receive a share of $2 million to carry out wilding pine control, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor announced as part of Biosecurity Week. “Wilding pines are a serious problem that threaten many of the unique landscapes that New Zealanders value. Community groups and trusts ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Health Minister Andrew Little responding to the New Zealand Nurses Organisation's rejection of ...
    I was advised last night that the result of the ballot of Tōpūtanga Tapuhi Kaitiaki o Aotearoa New Zealand Nurses Organisation members have rejected the latest proposal to settle their collective agreement. Let me be clear: the proposal was one they put to the Government. The Nurses Organisation rejected their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Conversion Practices Prohibition Legislation introduced to Parliament
    Legislation has been introduced to Parliament to protect against practices intended to change or suppress someone’s sexual orientation, gender identity, or gender expression. Introducing the Conversion Practices Prohibition Legislation Bill, Minister of Justice, Kris Faafoi, said the measures proposed were aimed at ending conversion practices which don’t work, are widely ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New kaupapa Māori mental health and addiction services to support people in central North Island
    New mental health and addiction services rolling out across the central North Island will improve outcomes and equity for Māori, Associate Minister of Health (Māori Health) Peeni Henare says. Today the Minister met with providers of the new kaupapa Māori primary mental health and addiction service, Poutama Ora, which will ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New kaupapa Māori mental health and addiction services to support people in central North Island
    New mental health and addiction services rolling out across the central North Island will improve outcomes and equity for Māori, Associate Minister of Health (Māori Health) Peeni Henare says. Today the Minister met with providers of the new kaupapa Māori primary mental health and addiction service, Poutama Ora, which will ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New school site for booming West Auckland
    The Government will build on a new school site in West Auckland to cope with rapid population growth in the area, Education Minister Chris Hipkins says. The Ministry is working with existing local schools to determine how the 1.5-hectare site at 279 Hobsonville Point Road will be used to support ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Trans-Tasman travel window to close at midnight tomorrow
    A further 500 MIQ rooms released for managed returnees from NSW Further Government actions announced today are balanced to provide more certainty for Kiwis wanting to return from Australia, while continuing to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, acting Minister for COVID-19 Response Ayesha Verrall says. The actions were foreshadowed last ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt investing millions in Hawke's Bay and Tairāwhiti schools
    Napier Boys’ and Girls’ High Schools are among those set to benefit from a $16.5 million investment in the Hawke's Bay and Tairāwhiti region, Economic and Regional Development Minister Stuart Nash announced today. The Government has set aside money in Budget 2021 to accelerate five projects in Napier, Hastings, Havelock North ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Game changing Jobs for Nature investment for Northland
    Conservation Minister Kiri Allan has announced Jobs for Nature funding for a portfolio of projects that will create ‘game changing’ gains for nature and communities across Northland/Te Tai Tokerau as part of the Government’s acceleration of the economic recovery from COVID. “This portfolio of 12 projects will see over $20 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Third COVID-19 vaccine receives provisional approval
    New Zealand’s regulatory authority Medsafe has granted provisional approval of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine for individuals 18 years of age and older, Acting Minister for COVID-19 Response Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. New Zealand secured 7.6 million doses (enough for 3.8 million people) of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine through an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Bowel-cancer screening programme is saving lives
    More than 1000 New Zealanders have had bowel cancer – New Zealand’s second-most-common cause of death from cancer - detected under the Government’s National Bowel Screening Programme, Health Minister Andrew Little said today. More than 1200 New Zealanders died from bowel cancer in 2017. The screening programme aims to save ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Govt welcomes draft report on the retail grocery sector
    The Commerce Commission’s draft report into the retail grocery sector is being welcomed by Government as a major milestone. “I asked the Commerce Commission to look at whether this sector is as competitive as it could be and today it has released its draft report for consultation,” Commerce and Consumer ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Christchurch’s Youth Hub ‘set to go’ thanks to further Government funding
    Construction of New Zealand’s first, purpose-built centre for youth well-being is ready to get underway thanks to an extra $2.5 million of COVID-19 response funding, Housing Minister and Associate Minister of Finance, Megan Woods announced today.  “The Christchurch Youth Hub is about bringing together all the things young people need ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Next step to protect Milford Sound Piopiotahi
    Expert group lays out plan to better protect iconic UNESCO World Heritage site Milford Sound Piopiotahi and its surrounds Funding confirmed for dedicated unit and Establishment Board to assess the recommendations and provide oversight of the process from here Milford Opportunities Project a test case for transformational change in tourism ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Funding for projects to reduce waste from construction and demolition
    The Government has announced funding for projects in Auckland and the lower North Island to help reduce construction and demolition waste. “Construction is the main source of waste sent to landfill, and much of this could be reduced, reused and recovered,” Environment Minister David Parker said. “The Government is funding ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech at the launch of the National Hepatitis C Action Plan
    Tēnā koutou katoa. Thank you Anglesea Pharmacy and Te Manawa Taki for hosting this event. As a doctor, I saw first hand the impact of hepatitis C. I met Moana in 2019; she came to the infectious diseases outpatient clinic at Wellington Hospital having tested positive for hepatitis C. Like ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago