The times they are a changing

Written By: - Date published: 3:51 pm, July 15th, 2016 - 84 comments
Categories: greens, labour, Media, national, Politics, the praiseworthy and the pitiful - Tags:

Dedicated to the latest UMR poll that Bomber reports has Labour on 33%, the Greens on 12% and National on 41% …

84 comments on “The times they are a changing”

  1. mac1 1

    “But don’t speak too soon, for the wheel’s still in spin,
    And there’s no telling’ who that it’s naming’……”

    Good news, though, and almost enough to make a ‘flu-ridden day a little brighter!

  2. Ad 2

    It was the cosmic uplift from last Saturday’s party Mickey.
    Every drink was .1% uplift.
    And it worked. 😉

  3. Sounds great, except for that worrying phrase “Bomber reports”…

    • mickysavage 3.1

      I’m quietly confident he got it right.

      • James 3.1.1

        There is a first time for everything

      • instrider 3.1.2

        I seem to recall you being quietly confident about the strength of labour’s internal polling before the last or previous election. Look how that turned out.

        Internal polls are almost always unrealistic because they are usually pushing a barrow behind the questions.

        • Lanthanide 3.1.2.1

          “Internal polls are almost always unrealistic because they are usually pushing a barrow behind the questions.”

          I quite doubt that. If a party’s own internal polling differed markedly from other polls over the long term, the party would dump the pollster.

          Similarly, there’s no reason that a pollster would purposefully bias their questions. Surely the party commissioning the polling would get to review and sign off on the questions, as well as the general polling methodology. Since they want accurate data, they wouldn’t deliberately skew it either.

          • instrider 3.1.2.1.1

            Because the purpose might be to test concepts, so the results may be heavily caveated and not comparable to one with more neutral questions.

            and the leaking of the results of such a poll might be part of a confidence building strategy. All we’ve seen are some numbers but not questions and methodologies. I recall before previous elections, both here and the last UK one, confident claims of internal polls showing far different pictures to public polls. Of course they turned out to be either deluded or lying.

            • Lanthanide 3.1.2.1.1.1

              Weird.

              I have no doubt that they would from time to time test out policy ideas or stances, as it is widely suspected/known that National use David Farrar for this.

              But it is pretty obvious that you can have two parts to a survey. The first part is the same every single month, so that you don’t introduce any skew in the way the questions are posed. It is also asked first, precisely so it can’t be skewed by the questions in the second part of the survey, which is what may differ over time.

              Pretty obvious that it would be run that way, thus avoiding any bias.

              Got any other brainfarts to offer up?

              • instrider

                All I’m saying is be cautious about the validity oof internal polls and those who would talk them up. See Rob salmond’s heroic efforts to talk up cunliffe and what the internal polls were saying about him, when we now know he was electoral poison

                Polity: Trevett wrong on polls

                http://m.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11329573

                • Lanthanide

                  Polls have margins of errors, that assume they have a simple random sample that is not biased. In actuality, all polls are likely to have some biases regardless of how much effort the pollster puts in to minimise them, meaning the margin of error reported is not the “true” margin of error.

                  Furthermore, polls are a snapshot taken at a specific date of the electorate’s feelings at that time. Just because the final election day result gave a different outcome, doesn’t mean polls taken months before didn’t reflect the mood of the electorate at the time they were taken.

              • Cricklewood

                I’ve been called twice this year once by Roy Morgan and the other by Umr.
                Have to say the UMR poll asked a few what I’d call leading questions. Slightly negative about John Key and postive towards Phil Goff for mayor.
                Can’t remember the exacting wording but it was along the lines of… Do you think Auckland needs experienced political leadership? Followed by, Labour mp Phil Goff is standing for Auckland mayor this year does his political experience make you more likely to vote for him.
                Fairly sure it was an internal poll as the questions were a bit different to Roy Morgan’s in tone and asked more about the Labour party etc. Tbh I wouldn’t be surprised if it produced a result a few point high for lab than the Roy Morgan.

                • Lanthanide

                  Sure, but as I posit, the first part which will be about polling for the parties, is very unlikely to be deliberately biased. Getting biased polling data is of no use to the party.

                  • Cricklewood

                    Perhaps but it maybe of use to create the impression of progress to the wider party etc to have slightly more favorable internal polls. Good for moral etc I wouldn’t discount it.

            • North 3.1.2.1.1.2

              Instrider’s just hurting ‘cos there’s a poll out that denies the Divinity.Key.Max.National.Key.Max.National. Poor boy/girl.

      • Lanthanide 3.1.3

        Quietly confident, or in the know?

  4. Chuck 4

    I heard through the grapevine the secret poll was actually conducted at Fraser House…

    There is now an internal witch hunt for the 41% who voted for the Nats! 🙂

  5. Byd0nz 5

    Come on Hone

  6. Ad 6

    We gonna crush em like bugs

    • instrider 6.1

      This is for all you new people. I have only one rule: Everybody fights, no-one quits. If you don’t do your job I’ll kill you myself. Welcome to the Roughnecks! Rasczak’s Roughnecks hooyah!

    • b waghorn 6.2

      and once the bugs are crushed how do we insure they don’t come back(think dirty politics and completly ignoring the massive issues coming our way?)

  7. Nick K 7

    Even as an Act voter, I find this mildly pleasing, if true.

    The Nats are useless. And that’s being kind.

    • mickysavage 7.1

      Agreed entirely Nick! 😀

      • Nick K 7.1.1

        Doing nothing is not an option for the problems that currently exist. And neither is policy by Twitter. They’re just kicking the tyre down the road. Even Stephen Jennings can see this, if you read what he said in today’s Herald. At least with a Labour government you know it’ll do things.

        • Craig H 7.1.1.1

          Well said – National have done SFA major in their entire time in office since 1951. That might sound harsh, but if you want major change or realignment, Labour will do it, and National won’t. It’s telling that ACT split from Labour, not National after all…

    • Ad 7.2

      These Nays are just Commies with a bad case of denial. Or Labour envy.

  8. The man’s a saint! Great photo.

  9. Lanthanide 9

    I wonder if National wish they had stolen Labour’s policy at the last election and banned foreign ownership of NZ houses.

    Fairly likely that would have taken all the heat out of the market and they wouldn’t be getting hammered on housing now.

    • mickysavage 9.1

      The focus group results suggest that so far this is not a step they need to take but they will be reviewing matters after next week’s focus group results are known and then may change their to date vehement opposition …

      • Lanthanide 9.1.1

        Bit hard though since they’ve painted themselves into a corner with the TPPA.

        • Colonial Viper 9.1.1.1

          The Key Government would ask for, and receive, assurances that temporary limits on the foreign purchasing of residential property (but not farm land) would lead to no adverse actions being taken against NZ via the TPP.

          He could also use such a step to trumpet how NZ retains its economic sovereignty under the TPP, unlike what the scaremongering hard left has claimed.

          • Lanthanide 9.1.1.1.1

            Would be a good move for them, make it look like they’re doing something.

            Problem is key has said over and over there no evidence, and obviously copying Labour’s policy now, after so long, would look bad for them.

  10. Wainwright 10

    Way too convenient. Who’d leak to Bomber Bradbury? The man’s a disaster.

    • While I’d generally urge caution with Bomber’s unlinked posts (still waiting for the name of the Nat MP he reckoned was going to be exposed in days by the Panama papers for example ) in this case I understand the numbers to be correct. Good times, aye?

    • Colonial Viper 10.2

      Deliberate leak (so not really a leak) of positive information by Labour staffers to a friendly media outlet.

  11. Chuck 11

    On a more serious note; if the Lab/Greens partnership out points the Nat’s on the day, say Lab/Gr 45% verse 41% Nat’s what would Winston do??

    Labour could not sideline the Greens again to appease Winston… or would they?

    The Nat’s could offer Winston what he wants and with something like 50% of the vote govern once again.

    • McFlock 11.1

      indeed

      Do you think he’ll be as cheap to buy as the Maori Party?

    • North 11.2

      Oh yeah lofty analysis from Chuck. Chuck-shitting-his-pants-that-love-for-the-waitress-assaulter-may-be-completely-in- vain-and-unrewarded.”

      Praying for Winston to be a scab. That’s the only way Chuck’s idol can make it. At the pleasure of Winston. Oh, the shame.

      • Chuck 11.2.1

        North, spoken like a true union man “Praying for Winston to be a scab”.

        Just the other day all hopes from the left were pinned on Winston getting Lab/Gr over the line.

        Now it seems (according to Bombers secret poll) Winston may not be required, and I asked a question of “what if”…then North you go off on a rant!!

        Don’t be so sensitive…I am sure it will all work out for the best mate.

        • North 11.2.1.1

          Please be straight up-chuck, Chuck. Any permutation will do for you guys. I think you understand how vulnerable is Churchill Minor to Churchill Major. You don’t insult Winston. Particularly in an effete and frivolous way. Which seems to be Key’s dumb-arse-getting-too-big-for-his-boots-failing. No, you don’t do that !

  12. Observer Toke 12

    .
    . The Tories have been hopeless throughout their period in Government. They haven’t even managed to get Insurers to pay up all those neglected Christchurch residents who have been bullied and bullied and bullied. For Five Years !

    They dumped on the West Coast miners who were destroyed by appalling lack of attention to Work and Safety. Even totally ignored a Court payment in relation to that.

    They decreed Worm Farms are a major hazard. But Forestry is not. Stupid minister of Tory tom fooleries made that law.

    Tories are good at Bullying. Paula Bennett being an outstanding example of how to destroy people. Shoving people into enormous debt. Unbloody believable how shameless that woman is.

    . However, the Tories have kept on task. They have only one task. They attend to it assiduously. They pass coin and assets over to their wealthy friends day and night. here and abroad. Evil.

    Their problem is that Andrew Little is an honest man. Capable man. An upright man.

    Honesty – Capable – Upright are not words in the Tory vocab.
    .

    • b waghorn 12.1

      i honestly don’t think they are evil , i just think they are inept middle management types that are out of their depth, lead by a charismatic fake .

      • Wensleydale 12.1.1

        It’s banal evil. The casual acceptance of the misery their policies are inflicting on the most vulnerable. The nonchalant shrugging and the blind adherence to an ideology that is demonstrably toxic. It’s the old “I was only following orders!” kind of evil. They have eyes to see, ears to hear and mouths with which to voice their objections to the suffering they’d see all too clearly — if they weren’t so preoccupied with making excuses for their lack of any meaningful action. Does your conscience prick you at night, Messrs Brownlee, Woodhouse, Bridges, and Smith?

        Probably not. Snouts in the trough. All in it together for the good of the Party. And the Party’s donors, who desire nothing more than a continuance of the status quo, no matter the cost.

    • Rodel 12.2

      OT- a reprimand- You used the word ‘Tory’ five times in your post.Shame on you.
      Didn’t you know we’re not allowed to use the word Tory outside of Jolly old Britain.
      Srylands ( 23 June 2016 )said so . ….

      I quote ” …..‘Tory’……They would not know what the fuck you were on about. ” and…”In fact in the real world I have never heard anyone outside of the UK ever use the word ‘tory’ in a conversation”

      Although we’ve heard of Tory Street and Tory Channel, OT you should get into the REAL world. That is, the planet inhabited by srylands and ilk.. and cease using the word “Tory.” Just say ‘Arseholes’. instead ..(cyn.)

  13. North 13

    Observer Tok’. Perfectly put. Love your “Stupid minister of Tory tom fooleries…….” It’s so true of those dogs. They act like they’re going nutty.

  14. Observer Toke 14

    .
    Hi North

    . I like your “…out of their depth, lead by a charismatic fake”.

    .

  15. North 15

    No. A fake charismatic.

  16. Observer Toke 16

    .
    . Rodel

    . Forgive me. I have been chortling at your words – neatly balanced – fun – charged with explosives.

    . Can you recommend a Psychiatrist to me? Prefer a female. You see, I cannot bring myself to say: The Honorable Billy English. He does not deserve that absurd language. Very likely he does not have a clue as to the meaning of “Honourable” . Tried to stitch up a fraud in his housing. Nasty Billy.

    The chap from Johnsonville. United Future. The word United would imply that he had a fellow member. But it is in fact a Caucus of one. if he passes a motion, he has to also second it.

    Anyway the real name should be changed to the Un-United Future Party. Gilbert and Sullivan would have wet themselves if they met the United Future outfit. They would present him with a pearl handled brush and a comb.

    By the way, does he have hair in other parts of his Tory – sorry – honourable body? if so, is it coiffured too? 5% of the voting public is all he needs to sit in Parliament. Crikey!

    . Shall I stop calling them Tories? They are the “Pantomine Party of Parliament”.

    . Always throwing their banana skins on the pavement and skidding through filth of their own making.

  17. swordfish 17

    The UMRs tend, on average, to be slightly better for Labour and the Greens and slightly worse for National compared to the main Public Polls. Only slightly, mind.

    Or, to be a little more specific, in some months their figures are almost exactly the same as the average of the Public Polls, while in other months the UMR is a little higher for the Left / lower for the Right.

    I’d take issue with Bomber’s assertion that: “The latest UMR internal Polling has shown a massive drop in support for Key.” (by “Key”, of course, Bomber means National).

    In reality, the Nats slumped earlier this year (in the UMRs, in National’s Internal (Curia) Poll and, to some extent, in the Roy Morgans) – particularly in the wake of the Flag Referendum and the Panama Papers controversy – and since then it’s simply experienced a slow decline:

    UMR
    April 2016
    Nat 43%
    Lab 30%
    (I don’t have the Green % but likely that Lab+Green roughly equal with Nats)

    June 2016
    Nat 42%
    Lab 28%
    Green 16%
    (Lab+Green = 44% – 2 points ahead of Nats)
    NZF 10%

    July 2016
    Nat 41%
    Lab 33%
    Green 12%
    (Lab+Green = 45% – 4 points ahead of Nats)
    NZF 10%

    We’re in a similar situation to mid-2015 when a couple of the Roy Morgans and 3 UMRs placed combined Lab+Green support a little ahead of the Nats.
    (although – unlike the last few UMRs – the recent RMs still record a mild Nat lead over Lab+Green).

    Then a swing back to National and the Right in the later months of 2015 / early 2016 – and now a swing back towards the Left (and, of course, NZF).

    • mickysavage 17.1

      Your considered comments would make very good posts. Contact me if you want to advance this …

    • Colonial Viper 17.2

      LAB 25% +/-3%. And I can’t see them going over 30% on election day (less than 1/10 chance).

      • swordfish 17.2.1

        I can certainly see why you’d argue that, CV. 😉 (Given Labour’s Poll averages at the same point in this Govt’s first and second terms (mid 2010/mid2013) and how they compared with the Party’s actual vote at the 2011 and 2014 GEs).

        • Colonial Viper 17.2.1.1

          I think National/Key is very hungry for a 4th term and they are going to throw the kitchen sink at the election campaign.

          If all the polls start putting LAB in the 32% to 34% range I might move the mid point of my estimate up a percent or two 🙂

          • Stuart Munro 17.2.1.1.1

            I’m not sure – some of them will, but I think some of them are getting tired. A lot depends on whether the MSM can deliver the kind of king hit they did on Cunliffe – the media is losing influence and may not be able to stage another like it.

            I’d pick that continued flailing ineffectuality from the Gnats on housing, the economy, and immigration would produce a rising tide for all left boats. The Gnats won’t build themselves out of the housing crisis – if they don’t grow NZ out of it, or regulate it they will wear the public’s not inconsiderable ire.

          • mosa 17.2.1.1.2

            It will be a bloody exspensive sink CV.

    • Stephen Doyle 17.3

      As the LP/GP vote grows close to 50%, watch Winston start to play his old tune. The race card. It’s pretty much the only song he’s got to sing that might make him relevant in the eyes of the older voter. The last thing he would want to be is irrelevant.

  18. Jenny Kirk 18

    thanks Mickey, and Swordfish – for this info – its a real morale booster !

  19. Wow, so now we get Labour in power? I think if you look at the growing wealth disparity in our country over the last 30 years you will agree that Labour will just continue the downward trend.

    • leftie 19.1

      No, I don’t agree Tane Harre. Your assumption could turn out to be wrong.

    • Jenny Kirk 19.2

      If you look at Labour’s announced policies, AND its Policy Platform (on the Labour website) you’ll see Labour is wanting to reverse that downward trend, Tane Harre. And they wouldn’t have gone into an election agreement with the Greens if they were not serious about it.

  20. Smilin 20

    It will be great when we dont have to look at Blight Blue running our country and we can have some decent spuds again if you get what I mean- Red Kings

  21. Guerilla Surgeon 21

    Great, if only now Labourites could put aside their irrational fear of the Greens. Admittedly they are a tad middle-class, but there’s no reason to run screaming every time you see one. 🙂

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