Over in England things are getting interesting. The unloseable election called at a time when Labour was at its weakest and most messiest was meant to be a cake walk for the tories. An increased majority was a foregone conclusion and the future of the Labour Party let alone of leader Jeremy Corbyn was not guaranteed.
Theresa May was that certain she would win that she was not even going to debate with her opponent. A series of tightly scripted photo opportunities was all she would need to guarantee her inevitable victory.
And Corbyn was going to be shown up as being totally inadequate for the job.
Well a couple of things are happening.
Corbyn is campaigning really well and giving it everything. His direct style of campaigning where he goes out and meets ordinary people face to face is in complete contrast to May’s. It appears to be working.
And the polls have started to narrow.
From the Evening Standard:
Labour received a further boost this week as two new polls showed Jeremy Corbyn’s party eating into the Conservative lead ahead of the General Election.
An ORB International poll for the Telegraph put Labour two points up since last week on 34 per cent.
Although Mr Corbyn’s party trailed Tories – on 46 per cent – by 12 points, it matched Labour’s best rating in a mainstream poll this year and added weight to the idea that its campaign is winning over voters.
Crucially, it puts Labour comfortably above the 30.4 per cent share of the vote achieved by Ed Miliband in 2015, a benchmark which some supporters argue should remove pressure on Mr Corbyn to quit if he fails to win power.
Meanwhile, a second poll by Opinium for the Observer put Labour up one point on 33 per cent to Tories’ 46 per cent.
Earlier this week two other polls also showed Mr Corbyn’s party was closing in on Theresa May’s Conservative Party.
And Mr Corbyn said: “This message is getting through. Get on any bus, get on any train, go in any cafe, talk to people.
“The whole discussion and the whole debate is unravelling from the Tory point of view, because people are saying ‘Hang on, why are so many young people in such stress?
“Why are so many older people being threatened by this Government? Can’t we as a society, as a country, as a people do things differently and better?”
The situation is complicated by the first past the post system and by the fact that a progressive Scottish National Party will almost inevitably sweep Scotland and guarantee a left voting block. They currently hold 8.3% of the parliamentary seats. And the tories are still way ahead.
But with 19 days to go the result is no longer a foregone conclusion. And events around the world confirm that established parties should never take the voting population for granted.
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