The Ukraine-United States Deal
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- Date published:
11:55 am, May 4th, 2025 - 13 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, helen clark, International, Peace, Ukraine, war -
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In the spirit of John F. Kennedy seeking peace deals by humanising your enemy, and trading what you know the other side wants, a reprise to my prior post on peacemaking deals for Ukraine.
The United States and Ukraine have signed a peace agreement to share revenues from the future sale of Ukrainian minerals and rare earths.
In his exceedingly commercial mindframe, this has enabled President Trump to be sufficiently incentivised for the United States to continue “investing” in Ukraine’s defence and its reconstruction.
Now all Trump and team have to do is broker the actual peace deal with Russia. And best of luck with that.
What the United States and Ukraine will be forming is a “Reconstruction Investment Fund” with each side having 50% voting rights. In a previous era the would be something called the Marshall Plan. Maybe we can call it the Zelynsky Plan. They don’t have to pay anything back for all the volumes of weapons they have received from the US since Russia invaded in February 2022.
Also it doesn’t mean the United States gets shares in existing state owned Ukrainian companies. The income for the fund is going to come from new licenses for critical minerals and oil and gas projects, not from projects that have already begun.
So far as I am aware this is Trump’s first successful deal of his second term presidency.
United States Treasury Department Secretary Scott Bessant said that the historic deal “signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centred on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.” And also: “To be clear, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine.”
Is it not weird that the United States has a president that is more pro-industry-protection than Sutch or Semple, loathes international military ventures more than Prime Minister Kirk, deeply distrusts all Deep State intelligence networks more than Prime Minister Whitlam, President Eisenhower and Prime Minister Helen Clark put together, and on the 50th anniversary to the day since the fall of Saigon in the US catastrophic defeat in the Vietnam War, has actually gone a long way to ending Europe’s worst war since World War 2 like he was a disciple of Jeffrey Sachs?
This deal is worse than weird. Don’t be fooled by what Zelynsky and his ministers say. It is a bargain of the damned. Trump is a world leader turning destruction into pure commerce. This isn’t peace negotiations saving lives, going after the cruel, and prioritising human dignity. It is commercial cruelty masquerading as honour.
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A 'Marshall Plan' would be for reconstruction after the war ended. I think this is more consistent with US dealings with the UK in 1940: after the UK had bankrupted itself and had no more cash to buy weapons, the Americans played 'Let's make a deal' in a way very similar to now.
'Let's make a deal' is a great game to play with people who have zero leverage because you can get an awesome deal from them. Back then, the US got various UK overseas territories in exchange for some obsolete WW1-era destroyers. Today, the US gets valuable mineral rights in exchange for nothin much beyond not just throwing Ukraine to the wolves. In this respect, Trump's demonstrating unexpected historical continuity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_and_the_Holocaust
Much later, it was discovered that America was providing the data management that Germany needed to run the war. Hitler didn't make the trains run on time, IBM did.
All the time getting rich through lend-lease.
I wonder what future researchers will find about this arrangement.
Zelynsky made a fantastic deal compared to the American initial position. The Ukrainians have critical operational needs that this deal unlocks – in particular, they are now free to buy US weapons like the desperately needed Patriot ABM missiles – Russia has recently been targetting civilian areas with SRBMs in an attempt to get the Ukrainians to fire their declining stock of Patriots to defend civilians targets. Ukrainian cargo planes have been seen loading old F-16s at Arizona airports.
Remember, the war can be stopped at any time – all Putin has to do is order his troops out of Ukraine. The Kremlin has completely over-played it's hand with the Trump administration simply because Putin has a messiah complex and is completely committed to restoring Russia as an imperial power.
Actually, for the first time in a while I am quite optimistic the Ukrainians might defeat Putin. Their military production has jumped – Ukraine now produces up to 240 155mm SPGs a year and millions of drones. People forget that while Russia has completely militarised it's now badly over-heating economy (Trump's tariffs have really tanked oil prices as well, affecting Russia's income) Europe/NATO funded Ukraine for the first three years of it's war out of it's existing peacetime mililtary budgets and with largely obsolescent kit. Now the Europeans are finally getting serious I doubt Russia will keep up (hence the increasing amount of North Korean manpower and equipment they are using).
Amazing how many at both ends of the horseshoe on social media manage to ignore this most salient fact of the war.
Thanks Sanctuary I'm not following it as closely as you are so it's great to hear more than preparations for Ukrainian decline.
following every aspect of the popular and mostly bullshit anti Russian narrative all the obedient and mostly ignorant good little goldfish on TS go round an round .You,ve alll aparrently learned nothing in last three years and knew fuck all before that either imho
Only 'mostly'? Which bits of the "anti Russian narrative" aren't bullshit?
Seems to me that the "mostly ignorant good little goldfish on TS" are mostly anti-Putin, not anti-Russian. You know, like most here (me included) are anti-Trump, not anti-US citizens – including those (imho misguided) citizens who voted for Trump.
Trump did not know Ukraine had rare earth minerals till the South Carolina Senator Graaamm told him after Jan 20 this year.
Russia now needs to take over the whole of Ukraine so that Putin can tell Trump to stuff the 'deal' up his windpipe. I doubt whether the Ukrainian people would wish to give away their minerals.
IEEE thinks the the mineral deal is worthless. Is it just PR?
https://spectrum.ieee.org/ukraine-rare-earth-minerals
It is mainly the Ukraine Oil and Gas reserves rather than Rare Earth minerals that Trump sees as strategic. Large licence areas around Crimea (in the Black Sea) and a swath across the northern regions of Ukraine. The US now has a reason to push for a return to pre-2014 Ukraine borders to be able to seize the prize …
I think Turkey also is eyeing the oil and gas deposits in the Black Sea. Ideally Russia and Turkey should form a consortium in order to exploit them. Why should a country from the other side of the world have a finger in the pie, and in particular, the one that sabotaged Nordstream 2. Russia needs to hold Crimea and gain Odessa, so as to deprive Ukraine of a port that they could rent to the Americans.
The US can contribute to the fund in the form of weapons as well.
Take some old gear they were going to write off anyway, attribute a value to it, then send it across as a contribution to the fund. So, it becomes a no-brainer for them to keep arming Ukraine.