Sanders has just walked home in Nevada.
Honestly, that should come as no surprise to anyone. He’ll probably win most of the remaining states too, and the only question that remains unsettled is whether his support will be such that there will be no brokered convention.
All other candidates have stated their belief that in the event of a brokered convention, the candidate with the most support should not automatically be the nominee.
According to them, it would be right and proper for Super Delegates to decide who the nominee is.
Think about that.
The contenders to be the Democratic nominee think that unelected establishment elites, with a lot vested in keeping things as they are, have a right to ignore and usurp the will of voting people.
That’s why Bloomberg is running (in the hope of achieving a brokered convention). And it’s probably the only reason Elizabeth Warren is still running. She has no path to the nomination besides being a “dead rat” (or unity) candidate of establishment elites.
And so now the only race is between Bernie and the goal of 1 886 delegates needed to secure the nomination.
Assuming no mass “drop out” by the remaining candidates, the only way Sanders can be thwarted is if a third and/or fourth candidate routinely breaches the 15% threshold in states and subsequently drags Sanders’ total number of delegates shy of the required number to secure a non-contested convention.
This video (reposted from a previous post) gives a simple explanation of how the delegate count alters quite drastically when a third or fourth candidate achieves over 15% of the vote.
To pre-empt some nonsense that might come from centrists. No. This is not comparable to Clinton winning the popular vote and losing the 2016 election. And no, this is not comparable to National winning most votes but not forming the government in NZ last time around.
The closest comparison I can think of is the NZ Labour Party reserving a decisive slice of the vote for party leader within the parliamentary caucus.
It’s the trench that threatened vested interests retreat to – it’s their Maginot Line designed to obstruct and thwart any inconvenient democratic will of the people.
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