The weasel accurately dissects National.
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2:05 pm, July 26th, 2019 - 36 comments
Categories: australian politics, Dirty Politics, jacinda ardern, labour, national, political parties, Politics, same old national, Simon Bridges -
Tags: matthew hooton
Matthew Hooton has a piece on National’s chances in the next election in the Business Herald this morning entitled as “National stumbling to defeat”. I’m not going to link or quote from it as it is behind the paywall. On the eve of the National party conference, it is a pretty scathing review of their chances.
I personally have very little time for Matthew Hooton and his opinions. In my view, he has a very strong tendency to dance on the border between truth and lying by omission and shading of fact. This is done far too frequently based on who is paying him or what his underlying agenda is. Since he seldom declares where he is coming from and the basis of his agenda, anyone looking at him for political opinion would have to treat him as just being slightly brighter than Cameron Slater at performing Dirty Politics. But of course his profession and his business is to be a professional liar without actually being culpable in court.
However in this case Matt (as the diminutive that I will refer to him from here on it) points to the several salient and actually factual points about the current National party illusions that are worth repeating and having comment on.
They have been encouraged by the surprise Liberal win in Australia and I suspect that they will be trumpeting that a lot at the party conference. But as Matt points out, the factors that led to that victory simply aren’t going to apply here.
Firstly, and in particular for the major parties, our MMP system is nothing like the systems used in Australia. If effect there are still all of the advantages and disadvantages of the first past the post system that we used to have here prior to the 1996 election
Wikipedia describes the aussie system as
The Australian electoral system comprises the laws and processes used for the election of members of the Australian Parliament. The system presently has a number of distinctive features including compulsory enrolment, compulsory voting, majority-preferential instant-runoff voting in single-member seats to elect the lower house, the House of Representatives, and the use of the single transferable vote proportional representation system to elect the upper house, the Senate.[1]
The effect is that it allows the kind of marginal seat effects that have largely disappeared from our electoral landscape. The Liberals could happily divert resources from a moderately safe or even marginal seats in NSW to focus on a series of marginal seats in somewhere like Queensland where they had a message that they knew would resonate well. They don’t have to appeal to millions of voters across the whole country to win a party vote. They can refine it down to mere 10s or 100s of thousands of voters in specific electorates. And that was exactly what they did to win the election. It simply isn’t reproducible here.
Secondly in the aussie election, the Liberal leader, Scott Morrison, was by polling twice as popular as the Labour leader, Bill Shorten. There is a significiant portion of the electorate for whom politics isn’t so much about the agendas or the message or even the political experience of politicians, but simply about what my partner calls the ‘sizzle’. And that is as shallow as it is, many voters base their vote almost entirely on how they see the persons who are foremost in representing a political party.
Now as a political entity, I’m aware that I always under-estimate the value of sizzle. I did in the last NZ election where I thought that the NZ Labour party were being daft changing Andrew Little for Jacinda Ardern a few months before the election.
While there were few MPs left inside Labour with cabinet experience including Andrew Little, I figured that his experience with the Engineers and party president were going to be more valuable at winning over floating voters,. I was also a bit distraught at the idea of letting someone who I thought had great political potential being put into a position to lose the election. A few months wasn’t in my view the right kind of time frame to build a rapport with people who like sizzle. And it spoke of the kind of desperation that loses voters who value stability. I am very happy to be wrong on virtually every count… 😈
But Jacinda even as deputy leader had similar leader public polling to the National parties leader, Bill English, and increased rapidly in the months leading into the election. It’d have been fascinating to see what the internal political polling would have shown.
But as Matt icily and accurately points out, the current National leader, Simon Bridges, doesn’t have a 2:1 advantage over Jacinda in leadership polls. He has a 4:1 disadvantage. I’d also guess that he really isn’t improving at all in either his level of public sizzle or even in his level of general competence. As is frequently observed in the comments here, the left would prefer that he remains leader. But fortunately, no-one else who appears to be a possible contender appears to be any more likely to improve National’s standing against Jacinda (please National caucus and members – put Judith Collins in.. She’d be a gift).
Finally, and most importantly there is the issue of underlying electoral support. National has a more fundamental problem related to our near proportional (for major parties) electoral system. They already have had their best electoral votes.
When you look at the actual (rather than polling) electoral history in this country since MMP, it is clear that no major party is likely to get the 50% in actual votes required to tip them into a clear victory. National and Labour need potential political party partners to get them over the edge. Labour, as a party that has spawned so many other long lasting political parties in NZ electoral history, is resigned to this. National, as a party who clearly sees themselves as a born to rule have not.
Since 2002, they have cannibalised the votes and destroyed the parties of the right and centre right, and even those of the more anti-labour than conservative Mari party. They have now killed their potential partners and sucked up their votes.
There simply isn’t anything available to tip National over the bounds, because no other viable political party (apart from the remaining subservient of one electorate and no votes Act) is there to provide them that partner.
Only NZ First is a possible conservative centre right partner. But their members have a natural caution after having had National deliberately set out to kill their party in 1998 and 2008. Not to mention that a high proportion of NZ First members and voters are more akin to slightly morally conservative left wing voters.
The Greens are pretty aware of the mood of their members and voters. They aren’t the kind of conservative conservationist that the repeated attempts by National supporters to set up Blue-Green coalitions requires. But they are big enough and attentive enough to their supporters to weather the occasional doctrinal disagreement that they seem to have every few years. They’re also aware that to work with National is a fast way to let their members and supporters leave.
You can see why this last point depresses Matt. National has managed in the last decade to survive as a possible government by virtue of having a sizzle leader while it has been clear that Labour has not. But even then they have only done so by having residual political party partners spawned in great political divisions of the 1990s. LIke all short-term exploitative thinkers, National didn’t conserve the resources. Instead they have used them up.
National is probably going to have to wait for government. Either Labour to spawn yet another viable political party as they have done so many times before. Or National will have to do the unmentionable as they did with Winston Peters and spawn another NZ First, and even harder – try to nurture it rather than actively try to kill it.
Of course you have to speculate on what Matt’s agenda is in this piece. It almost sounds like an honest albeit disparaging opinion of right despair. But with him, I always suspect that there is an ulterior and concealed motivation. Anyone care to guess what his next piece will reveal as his solution to this National conundrum?
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The National-led government has been given a clear message from the local government sector, as almost all councils reject the Government’s bid to treat Māori wards different to other wards. ...3 days ago
- Release: Labour congratulates Kuīni Ngā Wai hono i te po Paki
The Labour Party congratulates Kuīni Ngā Wai hono i te po Paki on being crowned as the eighth Te Ariki Nui – head of Te Kiingitanga. ...4 days ago
- Green Party welcomes new Maaori Kuiini
The Green Party welcomes the coronation of the new Maaori Kuiini, Te Arikinui Nga Wai Hono i te Po, today in Turangawaewae. ...4 days ago
- ECE teachers deserve better than this Government
The Green Party is unsurprised but disappointed by today’s announcement from the Government that will see our Early Childhood Centre teachers undermined and pay parity pushed further out of reach. ...5 days ago
- Urgent intervention needed on supermarkets
The Green Party is calling on the Government to intervene in the supermarket duopoly dominating our supply of groceries following today’s report from the Commerce Commission. ...5 days ago
- Release: Rainbow youth neglected in mental health funding
Labour backs the call from The Rainbow Support Collective members for mental health funding specifically earmarked for grassroots and peer led community organisations to be set up in a way that they are able to access. ...6 days ago
- Release: Transport in NZ has to be more than just roads
As expected, the National Land Transport Programme lacks ambition for our cities and our country’s rail network and puts the majority of investment into roads. ...6 days ago
- Speech: Barbara Edmonds Building Nations 2024
Tēnā koutou katoa, Thank you for your warm welcome and for having my colleagues and I here today. Earlier you heard from the Labour Leader, Chris Hipkins, on our vision for the future of infrastructure. I want to build on his comments and provide further detail on some key elements ...6 days ago
- Govt transport plan deepens fossil fuel fix
The Green Party says the Government’s new National Land Transport Programme marks another missed opportunity to take meaningful action to fight the climate crisis. ...1 week ago
- Greens call for public to back Wrybill in BOTY and beyond
The Green Party is calling on the public to support the Ngutu Pare Wrybill not just in this year’s Bird of the Year competition but also in pushing back against policies that could lead to the destruction of its habitat and accelerate its extinction. ...1 week ago
- Building consents data bad news for construction
News that the annual number of building consents granted for new homes fell by more than 20 percent for the year ended July 2024, is bad news for the construction industry. ...1 week ago
- Te Pāti Māori Pay Tribute to Kiingi Tūheitia Pōtatau Te Wherowhero VII
Papā te whatitiri, hikohiko te uira, i kanapu ki te rangi, i whētuki i raro rā, rū ana te whenua e. Uea te pou o tōku whare kia tū tangata he kapua whakairi nāku nā runga o Taupiri. Ko taku kiri ka tōkia ki te anu mātao. E te iwi ...1 week ago
- Release: Gaps still to be addressed in callouts response
The Government must guarantee New Zealanders will not be at risk after making changes to the way mental health callouts are handled. ...1 week ago
- Poroporoaki: Kiingi Tuheitia passing
Haere e te Kīngi o te kotahitangi Haere ki o nui, ki o rahi I te pō ...1 week ago
- Green Party pays respects to Kiingi Tuuheitia
The Green Party is paying tribute to the Māori King, Kiingi Tuuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero XVII, after he passed away earlier this morning. ...2 weeks ago
- Potaka Brings Whakaata Māori to its Knees
Today’s Whakaata Māori announcement is yet another colossal failure from Minister Potaka, who has turned his back on te reo Māori, forcing a channel offline, putting whānau out of jobs, and cutting Māori content, says Te Pāti Māori. “A Senior Māori Minister has turned his back on Te Reo Māori. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: National restricts access to disability care homes
With disability communities still reeling from the diminishing of Whaikaha, a leaked document now reveals another blow with National restricting access to residential care homes. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt must help save 230 manufacturing jobs
Labour is calling on the Government and Mercury Energy to find a solution to the proposed Winstone Pulp mill closure and save 230 manufacturing jobs. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt shirks its responsibility to Whakaata Māori
The Green Party has called out the Government for allowing Whakaata Māori to effectively collapse to a shell of its former self as job cuts and programming cuts were announced at the broadcaster today. ...2 weeks ago
- NZ First Member’s Bill To Disestablish Auckland Transport
Today New Zealand First has introduced a Member’s Bill that will restore democratic control over transport management in Auckland City by disestablishing Auckland Transport (AT) and returning control to Auckland Council. The ‘Local Government (Auckland Council) (Disestablishment of Auckland Transport) Amendment Bill’ intends to restore democratic oversight, control, and accountability ...2 weeks ago - Release: PM fails in constitutional role and leadership
The failure of the Prime Minister to condemn his Minister for personally attacking the judiciary is another example of this Government riding roughshod over important constitutional rules. ...2 weeks ago
- Waititi urges Rotorua Lakes Council to immediately stop works at Lake Rotokākahi
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and Member of Parliament for Waiariki, which includes Rotorua, has written to Rotorua Lakes Councillors requesting they immediately stop sewerage piping works at Lake Rotokākahi in Rotorua. “Mana whenua have been urging Rotorua Lakes Council to stop works and look at alternative plans to protect the ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Patient care at risk from redundancies
Patient care could suffer as a result of further cuts to the health system, which could lose thousands of staff who keep our hospitals and clinics running. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens call on Govt to wake up on child poverty
The Green Party says the latest statistics on child poverty in this country highlight the callous approach that the Government is taking on this issue of national shame. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Police are off the beat under National
Foot patrols around the country have decreased 15 percent since National took office, despite National’s Mark Mitchell claiming otherwise. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Climate denial is an insult to Pacific leaders
Winston Peters’ climate denialism at the Pacific Islands’ Forum is an embarrassing new low. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt must end solitary confinement
The Green Party is urging the Government to end the use of solitary confinement within our prisons after new research revealed some prisoners have been held in confinement for more than 900 days. ...2 weeks ago
- Fossil fuels never the answer in climate crisis
The Government’s moves to enable the import of Liquefied Natural Gas is another step away from the sustainable and affordable energy network that this country needs. ...2 weeks ago
- Government must respect Court’s Uber employee decision
Today’s court ruling upholding the rights of Uber drivers is a message to the Government that it must not tamper with employment protections. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Uber court decision recognises workers’ rights
The Court of Appeal decision that Uber drivers are entitled to employee rights such as minimum wage, sick leave, holiday pay and collective bargaining is welcome news for the drivers involved and their unions. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls on Govt to divest from illegal settlements
The Labour Party is calling on the Government to tell the two major wealth funds, the NZ Super Fund and ACC, to withdraw investments from companies listed by the United Nations as complicit in Israel’s illegal settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt backtrack on fast-track still not enough
Labour welcomes news that the National Government is backing down on its reckless proposal to give Ministers final sign-off on significant projects, but it’s still not enough. ...2 weeks ago
- Fast track still on track to environmental destruction
Our environment remains at risk despite the Government's proposed changes to its controversial fast-track legislation. ...2 weeks ago
- Ohinemuri River pollution highlights mining risks
The harrowing images of the severely polluted Ohinemuri River caused by an old mining shaft could become a more common occurrence under the mining regime the Government is looking to roll out. ...2 weeks ago
- Action to grow the rural health workforce
Scholarships awarded to 27 health care students is another positive step forward to boost the future rural health workforce, Associate Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “All New Zealanders deserve timely access to quality health care and this Government is committed to improving health outcomes, particularly for the one in five ...7 hours ago - Pharmac delivering more for Kiwis following major funding boost
Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour has welcomed the increased availability of medicines for Kiwis resulting from the Government’s increased investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the Government,” says Mr Seymour. “When our Government assumed office, New ...8 hours ago
- Sport Minister congratulates NZ’s Paralympians
Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop has congratulated New Zealand's Paralympic Team at the conclusion of the Paralympic Games in Paris. “The NZ Paralympic Team's success in Paris included fantastic performances, personal best times, New Zealand records and Oceania records all being smashed - and of course, many Kiwis on ...9 hours ago
- Government progresses response to Abuse in Care recommendations
A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report. “It will have the mandate ...3 days ago
- Passport wait times back on-track
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says passport processing has returned to normal, and the Department of Internal Affairs [Department] is now advising customers to allow up to two weeks to receive their passport. “I am pleased that passport processing is back at target service levels and the Department ...3 days ago
- New appointments to the FMA board
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister has today announced three new appointments and one reappointment to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) board. Tracey Berry, Nicholas Hegan and Mariette van Ryn have been appointed for a five-year term ending in August 2029, while Chris Swasbrook, who has served as a board member ...3 days ago
- District Court judges appointed
Attorney-General Hon Judith Collins today announced the appointment of two new District Court judges. The appointees, who will take up their roles at the Manukau Court and the Auckland Court in the Accident Compensation Appeal Jurisdiction, are: Jacqui Clark Judge Clark was admitted to the bar in 1988 after graduating ...3 days ago
- Government makes it faster and easier to invest in New Zealand
Associate Minister of Finance David Seymour is encouraged by significant improvements to overseas investment decision timeframes, and the enhanced interest from investors as the Government continues to reform overseas investment. “There were about as many foreign direct investment applications in July and August as there was across the six months ...4 days ago
- New Zealand to join Operation Olympic Defender
New Zealand has accepted an invitation to join US-led multi-national space initiative Operation Olympic Defender, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. Operation Olympic Defender is designed to coordinate the space capabilities of member nations, enhance the resilience of space-based systems, deter hostile actions in space and reduce the spread of ...4 days ago
- Government commits to ‘stamping out’ foot and mouth disease
Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says that a new economic impact analysis report reinforces this government’s commitment to ‘stamp out’ any New Zealand foot and mouth disease incursion. “The new analysis, produced by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, shows an incursion of the disease in New Zealand would have ...4 days ago
- Improving access to finance for Kiwis
5 September 2024 The Government is progressing further reforms to financial services to make it easier for Kiwis to access finance when they need it, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Financial services are foundational for economic success and are woven throughout our lives. Without access to finance our ...4 days ago
- Prime Minister pays tribute to Kiingi Tuheitia
As Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII is laid to rest today, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has paid tribute to a leader whose commitment to Kotahitanga will have a lasting impact on our country. “Kiingi Tuheitia was a humble leader who served his people with wisdom, mana and an unwavering ...4 days ago
- Resource Management reform to make forestry rules clearer
Forestry Minister Todd McClay today announced proposals to reform the resource management system that will provide greater certainty for the forestry sector and help them meet environmental obligations. “The Government has committed to restoring confidence and certainty across the sector by removing unworkable regulatory burden created by the previous ...4 days ago
- More choice and competition in building products
A major shake-up of building products which will make it easier and more affordable to build is on the way, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Today we have introduced legislation that will improve access to a wider variety of quality building products from overseas, giving Kiwis more choice and ...4 days ago
- Joint Statement between the Republic of Korea and New Zealand 4 September 2024, Seoul
On the occasion of the official visit by the Right Honourable Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of New Zealand to the Republic of Korea from 4 to 5 September 2024, a summit meeting was held between His Excellency President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea (hereinafter referred to as ...5 days ago
- Comprehensive Strategic Partnership the goal for New Zealand and Korea
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol. “Korea and New Zealand are likeminded democracies and natural partners in the Indo Pacific. As such, we have decided to advance discussions on elevating the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive ...5 days ago
- International tourism continuing to bounce back
Results released today from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) confirm international tourism is continuing to bounce back, Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey says. The IVS results show that in the June quarter, international tourism contributed $2.6 billion to New Zealand’s economy, an increase of 17 per cent on last ...5 days ago
- Government confirms RMA reforms to drive primary sector efficiency
The Government is moving to review and update national level policy directives that impact the primary sector, as part of its work to get Wellington out of farming. “The primary sector has been weighed down by unworkable and costly regulation for too long,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. “That is ...5 days ago
- Weak grocery competition underscores importance of cutting red tape
The first annual grocery report underscores the need for reforms to cut red tape and promote competition, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “The report paints a concerning picture of the $25 billion grocery sector and reinforces the need for stronger regulatory action, coupled with an ambitious, economy-wide ...5 days ago
- Government moves to lessen burden of reliever costs on ECE services
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says the Government has listened to the early childhood education sector’s calls to simplify paying ECE relief teachers. Today two simple changes that will reduce red tape for ECEs are being announced, in the run-up to larger changes that will come in time from the ...6 days ago
- Over 2,320 people engage with first sector regulatory review
Regulation Minister David Seymour says there has been a strong response to the Ministry for Regulation’s public consultation on the early childhood education regulatory review, affirming the need for action in reducing regulatory burden. “Over 2,320 submissions have been received from parents, teachers, centre owners, child advocacy groups, unions, research ...6 days ago
- Government backs women in horticulture
“The Government is empowering women in the horticulture industry by funding an initiative that will support networking and career progression,” Associate Minister of Agriculture, Nicola Grigg says. “Women currently make up around half of the horticulture workforce, but only 20 per cent of leadership roles which is why initiatives like this ...6 days ago
- Government to pause freshwater farm plan rollout
The Government will pause the rollout of freshwater farm plans until system improvements are finalised, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard announced today. “Improving the freshwater farm plan system to make it more cost-effective and practical for farmers is a priority for this ...6 days ago
- Milestone reached for fixing the Holidays Act 2003
Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden says yesterday Cabinet reached another milestone on fixing the Holidays Act with approval of the consultation exposure draft of the Bill ready for release next week to participants. “This Government will improve the Holidays Act with the help of businesses, workers, and ...6 days ago
- New priorities to protect future of conservation
Toitū te marae a Tāne Mahuta me Hineahuone, toitū te marae a Tangaroa me Hinemoana, toitū te taiao, toitū te tangata. The Government has introduced clear priorities to modernise Te Papa Atawhai - The Department of Conservation’s protection of our natural taonga. “Te Papa Atawhai manages nearly a third of our ...6 days ago
- Faster 110km/h speed limit to accelerate Kāpiti
A new 110km/h speed limit for the Kāpiti Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS) has been approved to reduce travel times for Kiwis travelling in and out of Wellington, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy. ...6 days ago
- IVL increase to ensure visitors contribute more to New Zealand
The International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy (IVL) will be raised to $100 to ensure visitors contribute to public services and high-quality experiences while visiting New Zealand, Minister for Tourism and Hospitality Matt Doocey and Minister of Conservation Tama Potaka say. “The Government is serious about enabling the tourism sector ...7 days ago
- Delivering priority connections for the West Coast
A record $255 million for transport investment on the West Coast through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s road and rail links to keep people connected and support the region’s economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Government is committed to making sure that every ...1 week ago
- Road and rail reliability a focus for Wellington
A record $3.3 billion of transport investment in Greater Wellington through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will increase productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. We're focused on delivering transport projects ...1 week ago
- Record investment to boost economic and housing growth in the Waikato
A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Waikato through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more efficient, safe, and resilient roading network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “With almost a third of the country’s freight travelling into, out ...1 week ago
- Building reliable and efficient roading for Taranaki
A record $808 million for transport investment in Taranaki through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Taranaki’s roads carry a high volume of freight from primary industries and it’s critical we maintain efficient connections across the region to ...1 week ago
- Supporting growth and resilience in Otago and Southland
A record $1.4 billion for transport investment in Otago and Southland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more resilient and efficient network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in Otago ...1 week ago
- Delivering connected and resilient roading for Northland
A record $991 million for transport investment in Northland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s connections and support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We are committed to making sure that every transport dollar is spent wisely on the projects and ...1 week ago
- Top of the South to benefit from reliable transport infrastructure
A record $479 million for transport investment across the top of the South Island through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will build a stronger road network that supports primary industries and grows the economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We’re committed to making sure that every dollar is ...1 week ago
- Government delivering reliable roads for Manawatū-Whanganui
A record $1.6 billion for transport investment in Manawatū-Whanganui through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s importance as a strategic freight hub that boosts economic growth, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. ...1 week ago
- Restoring connections in Hawke’s Bay
A record $657 million for transport investment in the Hawke’s Bay through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support recovery from cyclone damage and build greater resilience into the network to support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We are committed to making sure that ...1 week ago
- Transport resilience a priority for Gisborne
A record $255 million for transport investment in Gisborne through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and restore the cyclone-damaged network, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “With $255 million of investment over the next three years, we are committed to making sure that every transport ...1 week ago
- Prioritising growth and reduced travel times in Canterbury
A record $1.8 billion for transport investment Canterbury through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will boost economic growth and productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Christchurch is the economic powerhouse of the South Island, and transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and ...1 week ago
- Supporting growth and freight in the Bay of Plenty
A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Bay of Plenty through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will boost economic growth and unlock land for thousands of houses, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in the Bay of ...1 week ago
- Getting transport back on track in Auckland
A record $8.4 billion for transport investment in Auckland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will deliver the infrastructure our rapidly growing region needs to support economic growth and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Aucklanders rejected the previous government’s transport policies which resulted in non-delivery, phantoms projects, ...1 week ago
- ‘Didn’t care enough’: here’s what the Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide foun...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Wadham, Professor, Director, Open Door: Understanding and Supporting Service Personnel and their Families, Flinders University After three years of investigations, the Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide has delivered its final report with 122 recommendations. The commission has carried much ...1 hour ago - What is 3-phase power? And how do I know if my house needs it?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Asma Aziz, Senior Lecturer in Power Engineering, Edith Cowan University If you’re building, renovating or planning to install a solar battery, your builder or installer might ask whether you’ve considered upgrading from single-phase to three-phase power. This upgrade often comes with a ...2 hours ago
- MSG is back. Is the idea it’s bad for us just a myth or food science?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evangeline Mantzioris, Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of South Australia Dr. Victor Wong/Shutterstock MSG is making a comeback. The internet’s favourite cucumber salad recipe includes fish sauce, cucumber, garlic and – as the video’s creator ...3 hours ago
- South Australia is proposing a law to ban kids under 14 from social media. How would it work?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University Artie Medvedev/Shutterstock The South Australian government is moving ahead with plans to ban children under 14 from social media. Under the proposal, teens aged 14 ...3 hours ago
- Australia’s construction industry needs more hands on deck – so why is it ignoring skilled migra...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martin Loosemore, Professor of Construction Management, University of Technology Sydney Shutterstock Australia’s construction industry is facing a perfect storm: enormous targets for building – 1.2 million new homes and A$230 billion worth of infrastructure over the next five years – at ...4 hours ago
- At Melaka Art & Performance Festival I watched dancers overcome by a trance in the rain, and the...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan W. Marshall, Associate Professor & Postgraduate Research Coordinator, Western Australian Academy of Performing Arts, Edith Cowan University Feifei Liao performing in the village ruins. Photo by and courtesy of Teo Swee An. Melbourne-based Tony Yap is a leading figure in ...4 hours ago
- Google is facing another crucial court case in the US – and it could have major consequences for o...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Barbora Jedlickova, Senior Lecturer, School of Law, The University of Queensland One month after a US court ruled Google had illegally maintained its monopoly on internet search, the tech giant will this week face the start of yet another important antitrust case. ...4 hours ago
- Christopher Luxon refuses to speak about Treaty Principles Bill after it was handed to Cabinet
The Prime Minister says ACT leader David Seymour will have more to say on the Bill soon. ...5 hours ago - Jesus’s vision fulfilled: David Seymour restores unity to the church
The Christian church has had quite a few dust-ups with itself over the last 20 centuries. This week, the Act Party brought it together. Since Jesus prayed that his followers may all be one (John 17:20-21), Christians have barely stopped fighting. Yes, they’ve occasionally broken off to slaughter people in ...5 hours ago - PODCAST: The Politics of Desperation – Trump, Netanyahu, Maduro, Ortega
Podcast: A View from Afar with Paul G Buchanan and Selwyn Manning. Building upon recent episodes of A View from Afar, Political Scientist Paul G Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning discuss The Politics of Desperation. This episode flows on from our discussions about long transitions and the moment ...5 hours ago
- Pope Francis’ visit to Timor-Leste is powerful and symbolic, but also political
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shannon Brincat, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, University of the Sunshine Coast Author provided, Author provided Timor-Leste has had much to celebrate recently. August 30 marked 25 years since the Popular Consultation – or “The Referendum”, as many call ...6 hours ago
- What’s the difference between a heart attack and cardiac arrest? One’s about plumbing, the other...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Todorovic, Associate Professor of Medicine, Bond University Explode/Shutterstock In July 2023, rising US basketball star Bronny James collapsed on the court during practice and was sent to hospital. The 18-year-old athlete, son of famous LA Lakers’ veteran LeBron James, had ...6 hours ago
- If we truly want our Paralympic athletes to shine, their coaches need more support
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Bennie, Associate Professor, Health and Physical Education/Sport Development, Western Sydney University The 2024 Paris Paralympics delivered heightened attention and awareness of a pinnacle sporting event for para athletes. Australia has often set the standard for para sport, consistently achieving top ...7 hours ago
- New to streaming: What to watch on Netflix NZ, Neon and more this week
We round up everything coming to streaming services this week, including Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney+, Apple TV+, ThreeNow, Neon and TVNZ+. If you love celebs out of their comfort zone: Celebrity Treasure Island (TVNZ+, starting September 9) We’re back on the beach for a new season of celebrity ...8 hours ago
- Harris’ lead dips in national US polls and it’s very close in the key states
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris ...9 hours ago
- Rewriting history: how the Treaty ‘principles’ evolved and why they don’t stand up to scrutiny
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Kelsey, Emeritus Professor of Law, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images ACT Party leader David Seymour has said the goal of his Treaty Principles Bill is to stimulate an overdue conversation on te Tiriti o Waitangi/Treaty of Waitangi. ...9 hours ago
- Surge in non-disclosure agreements at Health NZ sparks Labour complaint
Nearly 70 staff at Te Whatu Ora have signed non-disclosure agreements since the end of November. ...9 hours ago
- ‘Numerous questions’, but Fiji govt sticks with new anti-corruption chief
By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist The Fiji government is backing the appointment of the country’s new anti-corruption chief who was under investigation by the office she now heads, which has left Fijians asking questions. Barbara Malimali — who was also the Electoral Commission chairperson — was revealed as the ...9 hours ago
- Pope Francis calls for end to tribal ‘spiral of violence’ in PNG visit
Inside PNG reports that Papua New Guinea is blessed with an abundance of natural resources, a proclamation even Pope Francis acknowledges. But Papua New Guinea is also challenged with socio-economic developments that do not reach the rural majority despite the presence of numerous extractive industries. The Pontiff in his remarks ...9 hours ago
- Anne Salmond: A Cabinet of principles?
The effrontery of David Seymour’s riposte to Church leaders over his Treaty Principles Bill is breathtaking. He accuses them of being undemocratic. When the Act Party took the idea of a referendum on Te Tiriti to a general election in 2023, it won just 8.6 percent of the vote. The other ...9 hours ago - Public feedback sought on new tolls for lower North Island
Consultation on the proposed tolling schemes for the Manawatū Tararua Highway and the Ōtaki to north of Levin highway is now open. ...9 hours ago
- A new festival celebrates the art of the picture book
Picture Me is a brand new book festival happening in Wellington and Christchurch between 11–28 September. Here’s the inside scoop on the international headliners and what they’ll be doing while in Aotearoa. A good picture book has a timeless quality: a story you don’t mind reading over, and over and ...10 hours ago
- Minister tried to hide NZDF criticism of boot camp comments
The criticism was revealed to RNZ in an official information act response, but new documents show Judith Collins asked for them to be redacted. ...10 hours ago
- LIVE@12:45pm – The Politics of Desperation – Trump, Netanyahu, Maduro, Ortega
The LIVE Recording of A View from Afar podcast will begin today at 12:45pm September 9, 2024 (NZST) which is Sunday evening, 8:45pm (USEDT). Building upon recent episodes of A View from Afar, Political Scientist Paul G Buchanan and journalist Selwyn Manning will discuss The Politics of Desperation. ...11 hours ago
- David Seymour hits out at church leaders over Treaty Principles Bill
The ACT leader says churches are abandoning their core beliefs, after 400 Christian leaders condemned his controversial Treaty Principles Bill. ...11 hours ago
- Some home truths about gene technologies
In response to criticism of proposed changes to our GM settings, scientist Revel Drummond says we should discuss the issue of regulatory change from a position of educated debate, not fear-mongering. New technologies often get pushback from sectors of society. In the 19th century people feared the unknown effects on ...11 hours ago
- Dane and Stacey on making travel a business, owning half a dog, and finding balance
Earning money while you travel sounds like a dream to many of us – so how hard is it to make the dream a reality? Travel content creators Dane and Stacey joined Kiwibank’s This is Kiwi podcast to talk about documenting their adventures online, and remembering to sometimes put the ...11 hours ago
- Councils’ credit ratings downgraded over debt, rising costs
A reduced rating will mean higher borrowing costs for two major city councils. ...11 hours ago
- Is America ready to elect a Black woman president?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University It’s the big question that has loomed over Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign from the start: is the United States ready for a Black woman president? I get ...13 hours ago
- Murdoch to Musk: how global media power has shifted from the moguls to the big tech bros
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Ricketson, Professor of Communication, Deakin University Until recently, Elon Musk was just a wildly successful electric car tycoon and space pioneer. Sure, he was erratic and outspoken, but his global influence was contained and seemingly under control. But add the ...13 hours ago
- Africa desperately needs mpox vaccines. But donations from rich countries won’t fix this or the ne...
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"Weasel"? You take that back.
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/06/14/science/14WEASELSCOVER/14WEASELSCOVER-superJumbo.jpg?quality=90&auto=webp
Cute little furry creatures… Nah.
Anyone care to guess what his next piece will reveal as his solution to this National conundrum?
Okay, I'll take your bait. Most likely option: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/25-07-2019/nzs-resurgent-new-conservatives-riding-the-culture-wars-to-the-2020-election/
Problem is, the gamble will fail due to the threshold unless the Nats do something clever. Have you ever seen that happen? They'd need to dump ACT, give the newcon leader Rodney. Might not get them the numbers to win, but would at least get them a coalition partner in parliament.
Can you see National even now being able to tolerate dissent on their right?
They spent a lot of time and effort in deliberately emasculating it. And they used Rodney to do it.
Obviously they are more likely to keep struggling with making MMP work, but I can't see how denial of the necessity of a coalition partner could possibly work for them. If the coalition stuffs up, perhaps, but waiting for that to happen seems a loser's option.
JC is playing her cards rather close to her chest. Smart enough to know what's required, knowing she must await the opportunity. How to be a team player when you know that a team is more likely to win when non-leaders supply leadership that the leader is failing to supply?! Do you try to prompt the dumb leader? Do you network the idea in caucus, to build up unstoppable momentum? She could see that option as win/win. If Bridges yields to caucus will, Nats get more leverage. If he doesn't, caucus realises he has to be replaced…
Rodney could work if the newcons leader is a net positive due to character & personality, plus open endorsement from the Nats. Colin Craig was net negative, and Key didn't endorse him. So I'm suggesting a whole new ball game can come into play. But the Nats are useless at lateral thinking, so making it happen will be real hard for them.
Pretty much where I see them at right now. They can see the need, but their factions and instincts are against giving a potential coalition partner room.
God knows that it took Labour long enough after MMP came in to accept it. And they aren't, by nature, conservatives.
Her real problem is that she is so easy to make toxic in public. Snd she has some serious opposition inside National.
FFS members leak dirt on her to us.
Oh, I agree, have made that point myself in the past. But the polls indicate sufficient resonance with voters that she still seems front-runner replacement. Lets wait & see how their conference goes this weekend.
On radio I always believed that Hooten would make reasonable credible statements but, always he would ave his attack weapons poised to strike and use repetitions to hit home. Bet it is a strategy used to win arguments. Agree, agree, pounce!
That was why I picked weasel as his totem animal. They have a habit of stalks followed by a sustained kill from a good position. Like these fisher relatives…
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2018/09/Weasel-like-fishers-prey-on-Canada-Lynx-in-Maine-news/
I've always wondered (and thought) that Matthew Hooten has a unique approach when speaking on Radio NZ. He understands that the audience for RNZ is (generally) more sophisticated and critical than the moblike mentality that is attracted to Rantback Radio.
Radio NZ listeners prefer Kathryn Ryan or Kim Hill to Mike Hosking and Leighton Smith.
So he tailors his speech and attitude accordingly.
Hooter isn't a analyst if he is a player. His talking points, take Greens are powerless, why bring it up then if they are powerless. He can't be a analyst when he is peddling propaganda as fact, it's oxymoronic, insulting, and if National Radio had integrity they'd call him on it. You repeating yourself again Hoot.
National's biggest problem is they are campaigning with the same policies they had a decade ago, and the National caucus spends to much time watching Fox news without grasping that a) New Zealand was only slightly affected by the GFC, so neoliberal centrism is still viable here, and b) our electoral system was expressly designed to squash radicalism of the left or right.
What is "neoliberal centrism"?
I read "neoliberal centrism" as meaning that at the current moment in time, in western democracies, the political centre is 'neoliberal'. Which means that at other historical moments, say the 1970's, the current 'centre' would have been considered very right-wing. Nothing very complicated in that and as a viewpoint it's internally coherent, even if you disagree with it.
So just help me with my bearings.
Is the current New Zealand government "neoliberal centrist"?
Is Germany?
Is Spain?
Is Canada?
Is Australia?
Does this make them sufficiently the same?
Seems like a sensible perspective. It displaced socialism, got the left behind it as well as the right in all western countries, so became orthodoxy. Centrists are mostly sheep, so they go with the left/right flow for lack of a better option. Greens have tried to explain the positive alternative, but most voters feel the need to conform to tradition…
Hooten did a good job on Ardern this week.
I will have a look around for it, in a old herald if it is behind a paywall.
Australia gives some examples of how Conservatives manage another party.
The Nationals and Liberals work together in Federal parliament. One whos primary message is to state capitals and larger towns and the other is ' rural vote and smaller towns.
That seems to work OK where the Liberals are dominant and Nationals smaller part and occasionaly mostly rural seats can swap parties due to Preference voting.
Everything changes in Queensland where the Nationals are dominant and the preference swaps didnt work as well due to significant leakage of preferences to Labour. The Answer was to run as a combined Liberal-national party. I wont go into the bizarre results that happen when a Lib-Nat Mp has to be allocated to one or other of the two caucuses in Federal Parliament.
Nationals only way to have a consistent coalition partner is to have a Rural /Small towns party which is separate.
Maybe that party will be NZ First in the future, but because of its heritage wont be reliable and nationals instinct is to kill it off.
It is a bit odd as it depends on electorates and not standing against each other. I think it is more of an accident than designed.It actually looks like the reform and whatever the rural party was before they coalesced as National party factions.
The non urban electorate wing of National would be up in arms – unless they split off to form it.
I am surprised that the Faming sector have not woken up to the fact that they to could get into Parliament and have their voices heard. All they need to do is find a likeable leader, pick out a couple of rural seats the don't have large urban centres and they would be in with a very good shot of getting in to Parliament.
One such seat is Kiakoura, held by National and the member is useless, only ranked by his own party at number thirty. Another seat is Selwyn, ripe for the picking as it also is a strong farming area.
If they did get into Parliament, it would be interesting to see if they aligned with National, but they would be in position just like NZF, the tail waging the dog.
Watch Todd Muller. Seems to be agreeable to most things L/G/ NZ propose. Agree, agree, then swoop. He knows the only place where Nats can get any numbers. Aproach with caution, as the cops would say.
There are now far too many biased towards National so-called journos in the main stream NZ media.
I think the reason for this is whilst he was part time prime minister of New Zilland(as he called this country)John Key hated anyone who intelligently questioned him or his government and so he successfully weeded out the more genuine journalists and replaced them with what I will term as 'wannabe' National Party MPs.
I am of course referring to Mike Hosking(he so wants to be a free-loading and self serving National MP. It's all so written across him like a bad rash), Katie Hawkesby, John Roughan, Barry Soper and his wife, and so many others whose names escape me right now.
The tabloid NZ Herald allows these so-called journos to spew their vomit(in verbal form) onto the paper now results in me not bothering to read the herald as it lacks credibility(much like so many of the National Party MPs that are currently around).
Today I saw a photo of Simon Bridges. His eyes looked like he is defeated. He knows he is on the out and his time as leader of the National Party is near to an end. And so whilst he may deny there is any problems in National I think deep down he knows there is trouble. He cannot continue to live in Cloud Cuckoo-land and say ‘All is well in National and that all in it are United”. I have a saying that the eyes are the mirror to the soul of a person. Simon Bridges eyes shows to the world what he is denying verbally.
JustMe, it isn't just you. Armstrong belonged in that 'so-called journos allowed to spew"
The Herald has always promoted National and supporters.
I have found Hooten a screamer on Radio, hysterical and totally biased.
Let's not get too carried away. Facebook has changed the game, and C/T have showed in Australia that they understand how it is played.
In the past lying has been a double-edged sword. You have to be careful to maintain credibility as blatant lies turn off a large section of the electorate. Some lies will appeal to some people, and not others, while some lies will turn off some people. Imagine if there was a ubiquitous platform where you can target the lies to exactly those people who will believe them without showing them to others.
What is more, with Facebook targeting, the subject of the lies aren't even aware of them.
I recommend the media, and the Labour party to set up people with differing personas to attract such advertising so that they at least know what is being said and to whom. They could then target rebuttals to the same people, or at least publicise the tactics.
But no, it won't happen, because the reporters in New Zealand don't want to know, and the Labour party doesn't understand the target.
In terms of UMR (Labour Internal) Leader Favourability:
Jacinda Ardern
August 2017 ……… Fav 70 / Unfav 15 = Net + 55
September 2017 … Fav 70 / Unfav 22 = Net + 48
October 2017 …… Fav 73 / Unfav 17 = Net + 56
Don't have Bill English's precise stats from UMR … but according to a UMR line-chart of Net scores in my humble possession: English's Net Favourability went from around + 20 at start of Election Campaign to around + 40 by Election Day (unfortunately can't be more precise than that).
So, Ardern enjoyed a significant advantage over him throughout the first half of the campaign, but he managed to close a good deal of the gap (though still clearly behind) by campaign's end.
Don’t have Preferred PM stats unfortunately.
I think the path forward for National will be to refocus on the sizzle – find a celebrity / superficially likeable leader and run with it. This has been their winning strategy previously and no reason to think it won’t work again. I doubt it will be more complicated than this – although granted it might not get them clear of requiring a support partner, if only a Dunne-like phenomenon etc.
They will do it while acting against the interests of most who vote for them and retaining their core values (cutting public services and transferring wealth to the wealthy).
The only time i ever heard any of Hooten's ramblings that made sense was when at the height of dirty politics he said Key was lying and deceiving the country in a spectacular fashion.
Pot calling the kettle black but it was plain for all too see even if you were a National supporter.
Bridges has hinted that a new party will be in a position to assist after November next year assuming Jacinda does not go to the country early.
Lot a water to go under Mr Bridges before then.
"Lot a water to go under Mr Bridges before then"
I like that Mosa.
Weasel?
Smart ,fast, focussed, not unattractive, and capable of killing (reputations) yes. Good choice.
He can't be all bad. Once upon a time .some several years ago I posted on a blog and he replied that he agreed with me.
That was scary and I said so, I am so far to left of Hooten I was worried.
He does appear to let his intellect rule his creed.
On occasions
I’d agree with all of that.
However I also find that he is also untrustworthy. I’ve seen him run quite long repetitive meme campaigns that have no apparent or explained underlying rationale. I suspect that those have been paid or factional campaigns.
So I treat and present him accordingly.
I think the Nats' biggest problem is that they won't share power with anyone, especially when "anyone" consists of people of non-European ethnicity. OTOH, they will have lot of dirty money to slosh around next year so they may be able to spend their way back into office. Apart from one factor, the current government should easy for any half-decent opposition to defeat (that factor being Jacinda Ardern’s charisma). We must be thankful that the Nats in 2019 are nowhere near that standard.
I agree with all that LP but he omits the one serious thingthat counts and that is the voter.
Kiwis change horses when there is something 'wrong' with the country.
They changed in 2008 when that idiot who shall not be named took his eye off the ball when the NZLP could have won that election as keys was untested.
btw. hooton is again correct in his observations at targeting electorates in Australia. That is what Scott Morrison did but he baited the hook with promises to keep mining coal and that is the economy stupid.
IN 2008 voters were entirely and utterly pissed off with boy racers and the governments unwillingness to do anything about it. the conomy was ok before the crash but those little shits in their jap crappas p out of their brains destroying the peace of every neighbourhood in New Zealand and enough to change the government.
Times have changed and so have the parameters. The challenges we face as a nation and globally will not fit into slogans and will take a different kind of leadership and this government is doing its best to lay a solid foundation.
and
underneath mathew hootons wonderful explanation is just opening the way for another attack on the government.