The winners and losers from National’s leadership spill

Written By: - Date published: 8:12 pm, November 25th, 2021 - 146 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, david seymour, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, national, same old national, Shane Reti, Simon Bridges - Tags:

This is quite simple.

The winners are:

  • Jacinda Ardern.  Want a leader who is going to keep her cool during an emergency whether it be a terrorist attack or a pandemic?  You can trust Jacinda to give her all to the job and not be distracted.
  • The Labour Party.  After a period of time about 7 years ago I know far too much about the Labour Party got its shit together and now its caucus and the party as a whole is united and determined to get on with the job.
  • ACT.  David Seymour looks more and more like the real leader of the opposition and I never thought I would say this.  He is succeeding even though his caucus looks very brittle and one decent investigation away from a scandal.
  • Shane Reti.  While everyone around him has been losing their shit he has remained calm and focused on the job.  I am sure they will not do it but from a leftie perspective he looks like their best option, although he would not beat Jacinda.

The losers are:

  • Judith Collins.  Karma is a bitch.
  • Simon Bridges.  Judith has done the damage.  Now every time his name is mentioned as a potential leader people particularly women will question his judgment and how a good Christian could even think such things.
  • The National Party.  It’s stocks have never been lower and the prospects of it splitting into an urban liberal party and a rural country party must be pretty high.
  • The National Party board.  People are going to look at it and wonder how Judith could have come out and claimed support from the board for what she did.
  • Nick Smith.  He had his career trashed by Judith because he was perceived to be a threat.
  • Todd Muller.  He had his career trashed by Judith because he was perceived to be a threat.
  • Chris Luxon.  If he really wants to be the next Prime Minister he needs years to learn the job properly.  And to put some space between his Christian fundamentalism and current events.  This is too early for him.

The immediate questions are will Todd Muller be returned to Caucus and will Judith cause a by election.

Interesting times …

 

146 comments on “The winners and losers from National’s leadership spill ”

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  1. Tony Veitch (not etc.) 1
    25 November 2021 at 8:41 pm

    Winner: Jacinda – who displayed real stateswomanship (?) by not wading into the Natz meltdown with some caustic comments.

    • Gezza 1.1
      26 November 2021 at 2:55 pm

      Yes and no. The best political advisors would all be saying keep away from it; say nothing to Ms Ardern. It makes you look good not capitalising on National’s implosions & there’s nothing good that would come of commenting on a National leadership meltdown that is obviously going to benefit Labour just by virtue of it happening.

      The moral high ground is the easy & obvious choice here.

  2. Anker 2
    25 November 2021 at 8:51 pm
    • Umm not sure the Labour Party is as united as you like to think Mickey. A lot of gender critical men and women unhappy with legislation such as gender self ID.
    • a lot of Rainbow people pushing gender self ID and a lot of lesbians in the party unhappy with this. A potential tinder box.

    I think if Bridges becomes leader Nationals support will increase. A lot of disenfranchised blokes who are looking for the come back hero. Bridges will also appeal to the growing number of anti woke. Bridges also knows the ropes and the pitfalls. He’s a survivor.
    People having heard the details of Jacqui Deans complaint will realise that it was done and dusted, she wasn’t meant to hear it, it was about Bridges and his wife’s attempt to conceive a girl and it was f…..g five years ago. Dean has been used by Collins. Most mature people manage to get over something we overhear if the person apologises and doesn’t repeat the mistake.

    Your capacity to put the best slant on Labour and all they do is impressive. Personally I think Collins going could be bad news for Labour for the reasons I outlined

    • Hanswurst 2.1
      25 November 2021 at 9:15 pm

      A lot of disenfranchised blokes who are looking for the come back hero.

      Which men have been 'disenfranchised'?

      • Anker 2.1.1
        25 November 2021 at 10:02 pm

        use to work with quite a few of these blokes. Voted Labour because of Covid. National looked a mess. Said I told you so when Muller went and never liked Collins. Quite a few of these types comment on TDB nowadays (not necessarily Labour voters but fed up with woke stuff). Guys who follow Jordon Peterson. People who bought Simon Bridges book.

        I could imagine if I was bloke at the moment, I might feel like an unpopular demographic. So someone who gets knocked down and then gets up again, got to have some appeal.

        • RedLogix 2.1.1.1
          25 November 2021 at 10:13 pm

          Guys who follow Jordon Peterson

          His audience is by no means solely male. It was my own partner who first started listening to him back in 2016 when I was working in Canada and long before he became a well known figure.

          I could imagine if I was bloke at the moment, I might feel like an unpopular demographic.

          Yes – not a lot of people can genuinely put themselves into someone else's shoes like that.

          • Tricledrown 2.1.1.1.1
            26 November 2021 at 9:31 am

            Jordan Peterson the modern day Freud /Fraud no scientific evidence to back his mansplaining.

            For real science the Otago longitudinal research proves most of what Peterson purveys is pure bunkum. Calvinist moralism not unlike the Nationals core principals.

            That's why National aren't connecting with the younger generation.Luxton the conservative chistian will fail.

            • RedLogix 2.1.1.1.1.1
              26 November 2021 at 9:40 am

              For real science the Otago longitudinal research proves most of what Peterson purveys is pure bunkum.

              Given the sheer volume of research and papers the DLS has produced this claim is meaningless.

              Also the term ‘mansplaining’ is one of those noisy little words that carries no useful meaning either.

            • GreenBus 2.1.1.1.1.2
              26 November 2021 at 11:24 am

              2.1.1.1.1

              Mansplaining-what a great word.

              From Google.

              Mansplaining (a blend word of man and the informal form splaining of the gerund explaining) is a pejorative term meaning "(of a man) to comment on or explain something to a woman in a condescending, overconfident, and often inaccurate or oversimplified manner".

              And not just to woman either, us fellas sometimes get a unwarranted ear bashing from big fish on these blogsites.

            • Anker 2.1.1.1.1.3
              26 November 2021 at 11:30 am

              I wasn't defending Jordan Petersen. I am on the record on this site of saying that most of what he says, I don't agree with. I was asked who the disenfranched men were and I made the suggestion that they are the men who listen to JP.

              Couldn't agree more about the Dunedin longitudinal study. Brilliant and world leading and truly objective. It doesn't filter stuff through an ideological lens. Some of its findings around male and female violence has been unpopular though. What claims does Petersen make that the Dunedin study contradict?

              • RedLogix …
                26 November 2021 at 11:41 am

                Couldn't agree more about the Dunedin longitudinal study. Brilliant and world leading and truly objective.

                Absolutely. Some years back I was referencing it here quite frequently. It's produced so much reliable data that somewhere I read that it spins off something like 1300 papers a month (I could have that wrong). It's speaks to a very wide range of topics and as you say – not all of it welcomed by the ideological left. So does Peterson.

                I agree without some specificity GB's claim carries no useful information.

            • SPC 2.1.1.1.1.4
              26 November 2021 at 12:15 pm

              Strike 1 – conflating a Murray called John with a Christopher.

              Strike 2 – the elect Calvinist and the born again Pentecostal would have to be on different sides of the heavenly mansion (co-existence and all …)

            • Gezza 2.1.1.1.1.5
              26 November 2021 at 3:06 pm

              Luxton the conservative chistian will fail.

              Amazing how many people seem to feel compelled to put a “t” into his surname & don’t bother to check.

              The guy’s family name is Luxon – no t.

              Nicky Hager’s another one. Poor chap gets his family name mis-spelled as Hagar by many a lazy commenter.

              • In Vino …
                26 November 2021 at 8:23 pm

                John Luxton used to be a reasonably well-known National MP.

                People just don't pay attention to small differences like Luxton and Luxon (correct for this new guy.)

                • Blazer …
                  26 November 2021 at 8:34 pm

                  'looks like a roll on deodorant' is perfect,.

                  Beats …'bald headed ,bible bashing ,Muldoon ..lookalike'…easily!wink

                • Simbit …
                  27 November 2021 at 8:06 am

                  Ex PM John Key is almost always called "John Keyes" when people I know mention him at all.

                  • Gezza …
                    27 November 2021 at 9:06 am

                    Keys. Yes, I have the same experience.

                    Quite a few folk posting on political blogs call Robertson Robinson.

                    And Tame Iti, as often as not, it seems to me, gets mis-named Tama Iti.

    • Visubversa 2.2
      25 November 2021 at 9:58 pm

      I would not get too excited there Anker. Yes, there are a bunch of us lesbians who are not happy with the Labour Party's embrace of gender ideology. However, we have been around a long time and we know the value of political discipline. We survived Rogernomics and the bully boys of MMSC. We were there when Labour was 14% in the polls. We know that the Green Party is even more subservient to the homophobic and misogynistic cult that is gender ideology than Labour, and we are certainly never going to vote Tory. We may stop paying our VFL, and we won't deliver the leaflets, but most of us will die members of the Labour Party

      • Anker 2.2.1
        25 November 2021 at 10:06 pm

        Visubversa, geninue question. Why do you think that is? We all know how Labour has introduced this legislation by stealth. Why do you think people stay?

        I won't be voting for them. On that I am clear.

      • Michael 2.2.2
        26 November 2021 at 10:15 am

        Visubversa – well said and pleased to hear it. Labour (and the Greens) need to stay focused and not divert themselves into identity politics. Fight injustice wherever it occurs, including gender-based injustice, but don't let it become the consuming issue. The political Right will do all it can to paint Labour-Greens as obsessed with identity politics at the expense of "the business community". We must not let them.
        Anker – have you misspelled your handle?

        • Anker 2.2.2.1
          26 November 2021 at 11:20 am

          I haven't mispelled my handle Michael. What made you ask?

          In my opinion it is too late for Labour and the Greens. They are waist deep, the Greens neck deep in identity politics.

          • Michael 2.2.2.1.1
            26 November 2021 at 1:45 pm

            The letter "W" is missing from the front of it.

            Labour and Greens are both invested in identoty politics. However the Right uses the term to smear any efffort to pursue social justice.

            [RL: Pull another childish stunt like that – and you will be on holiday from here.]

      • lprent 2.2.3
        26 November 2021 at 10:44 am

        Doing politics is a long-term process. Plan on changing things over a 20-30 year process from when it isn’t a thing to when everyone is jumping on the bandwagon.

        • Anker 2.2.3.1
          26 November 2021 at 11:40 am

          I wasn't defending Jordan Petersen. I am on the record on this site of saying that most of what he says, I don't agree with. I was asked who the disenfranched men were and I made the suggestion that they are the men who listen to JP.

          Couldn't agree more about the Dunedin longitudinal study. Brilliant and world leading and truly objective. It doesn't filter stuff through an ideological lens. Some of its findings around male and female violence has been unpopular though. What claims does Petersen make that the Dunedin study contradict?

        • Anker 2.2.3.2
          26 November 2021 at 11:40 am

          Are you referring to gender ideology here I Prent? Interested to know

          • lprent 2.2.3.2.1
            29 November 2021 at 12:53 pm

            Nope. FYI The examples that I gave when I was discussing this with my partner were about the expected treatment of animals, the gradual cleanup of sewerage dumping into harbours/coastal waters/waterways, and the slow blocking of tax loopholes. She wasn’t that interested in any of them. But was moderately glad that people were looking at them.

            You'll probably note that all of these are related to strategic changes that have occurred over the last 30 years. I’m interested in social issues – but really only as they affect the body politic. And there are so many issues that are more important than the mistakes of otherwise that people make with their own lives and that of their children. I concentrate my concern on those that are large enough to be an societal issue rather than a personal one.

            If we want to continue selling high value animal proteins to the world then changing animal welfare standards is vital. Who in the hell wants to pay a premium here or offshore for stressed animals littered with antibiotics selecting for ever more resistant bugs. Looking at video of factory farming practices or even my memories of bobby calf treatment when I was on farms is enough to make me consider becoming vegan.

            Plus it is an ethical issue as it has become more and more obvious that degree of sentience in all animals is far higher than was postulated.

            Water pollution is just damn stupid. Short changing dealing with sewerage is a major health hazard. Destroying farm lands with excessive water use, destruction of aquifers, and down stream pollution in the names of 'property-rights' for short-term profit and long-term destruction on the basis on local interests is just idiotic.

            The three waters proposal that the government is going to push through is a direct result of 30 years of waiting for councils to honour their words with actions and failing to see any.

            Tax loophole cleanup has now been going on for about 30 years in NZ. It is important because of many reasons. But the most important is that it diverts funds from where they should be used productively to where they are squandered doing things of no benefit to the country.

            For me – these kinds of issues are the stuff of what I consider to be worthwhile politics.

            So when I look at what I consider to be grossly short-sighted obsessions of recent semi-moralistic trends with the kind of guesswork unverifiable numbers involving relatively small number of people (see your comment at 2.2.3.3) and outright scare-mongering about gender… Well I can't see what the issues are apart from the personal insecurities in self-image of those obsessed by it.

            For me it is no different than the people who prefer to speculate on what really happened with the fall of the twin towers.

            Of course I do this from the basis on being a childless male who has no particular hangups of insecurities about gender or even less interest in it. Plus I have read the laws and constraints about ages of consent for a whole lot of things and spent time with other peoples kids often enough to have opinions about when they are capable of making their own decisions. I’m an uncle who tends to deal with the families kids when they get hard for their parents to manage.

            So far I haven't seen anything in those gender debates that really shows me where there is an issue – and I really can't be bothered with pious fuckwits like you who try to drag me into one without any logic or reason apart from their apparently stupid obsessions. I have tolerated this in the past requesting that people tell me why they seem to be rationally say why they are obsessed with this. Some have tried – so far they haven't managed to say anything

            Have I made my views clear ? Or should I start really unleashing my views on you? Because if I see one more attempt at swerving what I say about into some kind of loyalty test – then I'm going to start the obvious sets of rebuttals about personality disorders of the morality police.

            • Anker 2.2.3.2.1.1
              29 November 2021 at 3:13 pm

              It was a simple yes or no question Iprent.

              I understand now the gender issues are of no interest to you. Fair enough. It is an issue that is important to me though, but perhaps not for the reasons you think (?morality reasons).

              I have no idea of what you mean by one more attempt to at swerving what I say about into some kind of loyalty test". I don't recall interacting with your comments much at all. But I am open to being corrected if this is the case.

              I also don't understand what you mean about personality disorders of the morality police. My views on gender arent' coming from a place of morality, but maybe that is not what you are implying.

              While I value this site and the work you do for it, to be honest, I found your response to a straight forward question on my behalf a bit unfair.

        • Anker 2.2.3.3
          26 November 2021 at 1:46 pm

          In 20 -30 years I fully expect that the children who have been put on puberty blockers, cross sex hormones, had surgery to remove their breasts, uterus, penises etc before the age of 25, (the same people who want be able to transition back to their natal sex, because for the women, they have an Adams apple and a deep voice etc) to be taking a class action against the Govt or that a Royal Commission of enquiry will be fully underway as to why the adults around them, including professionals and politicians enabled them to permantly mutilate their bodies before they could give true informed consent. These people will be dealing with issues of infertility and inability to experience sexual pleasure as well.

          According to Stella O'Malley, a Irish psychotherapist and author, she has 22,000 of these individuals already i.e the detransitioners, in the support groups she runs through Genspect

          • RedLogix 2.2.3.3.1
            26 November 2021 at 3:15 pm

            she has 22,000 of these individuals already i.e the detransitioners,

            That's a startling number. At least 10 times what I might have guessed.

            • Anker 2.2.3.3.1.1
              26 November 2021 at 3:38 pm

              https://genspect.org/stella-omalley-testifies-about-new-zealand-conversion-therapy-bill/

              Red Logix here is Stella O'Malley's presentation to the select committee on the Conversion Practices Bill. She mentions the number of detransitioners there.

              They don't want to listen to this stuff. A psychologist at Bath Uni wanted to do some research on de-transitioners and initially his research was approved and then cancelled. He maintains it was that the Uni didn't want to attract protests and vitriol from the trans activists

              • RedLogix …
                26 November 2021 at 4:02 pm

                O'Malley touches on the huge increase in young girls wanting to transition to males, and I'm assuming destroying any chance they have in future to have children. And of course all the consequences that fall from this. Yet so far this has gone widely unexamined or even debated here.

                'Repressed homophobia' strikes me as a very odd and conveniently ideological explanation.

                • Anker …
                  26 November 2021 at 5:42 pm

                  Yes I must admit I have been skeptical about a repressed homosexuality, but the more I have thought about it, the more credible it seems for some. I imagine it could be very frightening realizsing you are same sex attracted, even in these more enlightened times. I know this to be true from a very close relative who is gay. Very hard for them to accept and tried to be heterosexual for some time.

                  But if now it is cool to be trans, then it may be an eloquent solution to the internalized homophobia O'Malley talks of. And afterall she does work with these young people so gets to hear their stories.

                  Despite being accused of being transphobic etc, I am sticking with this cause, because I can't bear the thought of these young kids stuffing up their bodies, while the adults around them are cheering them along. I watched another talk by Stella and she makes the very valid point that it is really important not to celebrate these kids being trans. This backs them into a corner and she gives the case of Jazz Jennings, the poster child for kids transitioning in the States. I think she mentions in this talk that Jazz's surgeon had trouble making a vagina out of her penis and there wasn't enough penile tisses. and they were trying to make a vagina out of the material due to the puberty blockers.

                  How anyone can think this is o.k. is beyond me.

                  • RedLogix …
                    26 November 2021 at 6:41 pm

                    I imagine it could be very frightening realizsing you are same sex attracted, even in these more enlightened times.

                    Fair enough – I'm not going to die in a ditch on this because hell I cannot know what is inside these young people's minds. But still it seems odd that as homosexuality has become dramatically more accepted – to the point of being 'cool' as you put it – that young people should at the same time be more fearful of it.

                    And as O'Malley points out – why just teenage girls?

                    But otherwise – yes. I suspect we have no idea what is really going on here.

      • Ad 2.2.4
        26 November 2021 at 11:20 am

        Nicely said.

      • Alison Lewis 2.2.5
        26 November 2021 at 11:38 am

        Yes, I will remain a member of the Labour Party but I won't be voting for this Government in 2023, I won't be voting at all probably, for the first time ever. Totally disillusioned with this Government re its attitude towards women who have legitimate concerns around Sex Self-ID, backed by knowledge of what has happened to women's rights in countries such as the United States, Canada, Norway, Iceland, Ireland and the UK (even though Sex Self-id has not been passed into law there). Scotland under Nicola Sturgeon is pushing for Sex Self-ID and she has been scornful of the women who have raised concerns with the legislation.

        • Anker 2.2.5.1
          26 November 2021 at 1:37 pm

          I am with you Alison Lewis. That is exactly how I feel.

          I realize things like fixing the housing crisis and even poverty are possibly quite complex and I give them the benefit of the doubt on that.

          The other issue that has really put me off voting for Labour is the refusal to move anti social state house tennants out. I feel deeply for the people who will be at the lower end of the socio economic strata who are having to endure such behaviour. This is quite sadistic of whoever can reverse this policy to allow it to continue. It should be an easy fix. Its not as if the houses of anti social evictees would sit empty. Let other families/people in need of reasonable shelter have them and live in peace witht their neighbours. I hope National make a really big issue out of this.

          • Peter 2.2.5.1.1
            27 November 2021 at 8:56 am

            With Labour in Opposition, David Seymour as PM, voted in by those who do vote, the Labour party will have all the time it wants to totally dedicate its energy to issues of gender.

    • Anne 2.3
      26 November 2021 at 9:50 am

      Mickey has something of the order of 35 to 40 years experience in the NZ Labour Party and politics in general. He is also a long standing lawyer who knows how to be dispassionate and set aside personal views when reflecting on issues. He is also transparent and always makes disclosures of any personal associations that may affect his judgement. I find him a trustworthy commentator and author.

      "Personally I think Collins going could be bad news for Labour for the reasons I outlined."

      Important though they are to some people, I don't think those reasons you refer to… figure strongly in the minds of most voters Anker @ 2.

      • Anker 2.3.1
        26 November 2021 at 11:17 am

        Anne @ 2.3 I think we are all entitled to chose what issues matter to us. This one matters to me.

        i think your promotion of MS knowedge , integrity etc is a bit of a dig at me because I made a comment on MS putting the best slant on Labour. My apologies if I am wrong about that Anne. But on refelction, I probably shouldn’t have said that. Apologies Mickey if any offence taken.

        These issues might figure more in the minds of voters if they were reported on in a fair and balanced way in the media. Part of my objection to what is happening is that a group of people who expouse an ideological belief legislate for this belief and try to impose the ideology onto to others. Debate is shut down about this ideology because you become labelled a bigot for expressing a reasonable opinion.

        • Anne 2.3.1.1
          26 November 2021 at 2:39 pm

          "I think your promotion of MS knowedge , integrity etc is a bit of a dig at me…"

          No it wasn't Anker but can appreciate why you might have thought so. Genuine mistake. No need to apologise. 🙂

          Having been a member of the LP for a number of years I know Mickey's background quite well. Its sometimes hard to make a judgement on someone who may be a regular TS contributor but whom you may have never met.

          I know the issue in question is very important to you, but all I was saying is that many people don't get that importance and are not interested. Which is probably why the MSM doesn't address it very often.

          • Gezza 2.3.1.1.1
            26 November 2021 at 3:14 pm

            Micky doesn’t have an “e” in his moniker. Just saying.

          • Anker 2.3.1.1.2
            26 November 2021 at 3:58 pm

            Cheers Anne. Glad I cleared it with you.

            Guess another apology is owed to Micky about the e I added to his name.

            I am inclined to do that sort of thing (innocently I might add)

    • Nic181 2.4
      26 November 2021 at 5:31 pm

      If Labour lets it’s self be drawn into the LGBT nightmare it’s done for. Labour needs to support the economy, the environment, the workers, climate change issues and keep well away from sex issues. It’s a no win path to oblivion!

      • Anker 2.4.1
        26 November 2021 at 5:45 pm

        I agree Nic 181, but unfortunately it is too late. Labour is deeply imbedded in the LBGT nightmare as you call it. A lot of their female MP's seem deeply immeshed in gender ideology

  3. Alan 3
    25 November 2021 at 9:17 pm

    Looser – Labour, already in decline in the polls, now faced with the prospect of an opposition with a more acceptable leadership team.

    Looser – Labour, racking up a raft of failures that will become glaringly obvious once the cloak of covid is removed – e.g., housing, child poverty, gangs taking over state houses etc, etc. Easy pickings for the opposition leading up to the election.

    Looser – Greens, already not very visible, maybe retain about 8%, but irrelevant once labour slips to 40%.

    Winner – National, upwards and on wards, the gap between the left and right blocks has shrunk massively over the last 12 months, this trend will continue.

    For left wing fans, today is a bad day. And jeez, just imagine if Jacinda, the ticket to ride, decides it is all getting a bit hard and starts to look at other career opportunities……

    • Ad 3.1
      25 November 2021 at 9:27 pm

      It's spelled loser, loser.

    • McFlock 3.2
      25 November 2021 at 9:32 pm

      You reckon the nats will go with someone with voter appeal this time? Who?

    • Hanswurst 3.3
      25 November 2021 at 9:39 pm

      Winner – National, upwards and on wards

      So they're heading for a hospital pass?

    • Gezza 3.4
      26 November 2021 at 3:32 pm

      Alan

      [Loser] – Labour, already in decline in the polls, now faced with the prospect of an opposition with a more acceptable leadership team.

      Well, let’s wait and see – shall we? If it’s Bridges that’s a risk, he tanked them last time. If its Luxon he’s a newbie & thus scope exists for plenty of fumbles. If it’s Mitchell he’s got the charisma of a four by two, doesn’t serm spectacularly articulate & has an accent that grates on the ear.

      [Loser] – Labour, racking up a raft of failures that will become glaringly obvious once the cloak of covid is removed – e.g., housing, child poverty, gangs taking over state houses etc, etc. Easy pickings for the opposition leading up to the election.

      Your strongest point. Labour has some very weak Ministers who seem fearful of, & captured by, their departments. They need to get some steel up their spines & get to work finding out why they’re not performing & when they’re going to.

      [Loser] – Greens, already not very visible, maybe retain about 8%, but irrelevant once labour slips to 40%.

      Maybe. Don’t care about the Greens here at Pookden Manor. They’re an amorphous crew of lah de dahs – you name it, if it’s weird or obscure – they’ll have an advocate for it.

      Winner – National, upwards and on wards, the gap between the left and right blocks has shrunk massively over the last 12 months, this trend will continue.

      As I said earlier, let’s wait & see. I haven’t a clue what National stands for these days, apart from Parliament. They need some kind of sense of direction, they’ve been all over the place.

      For left wing fans, today is a bad day. And jeez, just imagine if Jacinda, the ticket to ride, decides it is all getting a bit hard and starts to look at other career opportunities……

      If Ardern bails, Labour will struggle – she’s Labour’s biggest asset, & their second biggest asset has been, first Bridges, then Collins, imo. BUT – Labour knows better than National how to target more voters by demographics AND they have the adantage being in power of being able to entice more voters with election year spending.

    • Mark Craig 3.5
      29 November 2021 at 8:20 pm

      Mr Wilkinson at this stage in your deams laddie.

  4. cathy-o 4
    25 November 2021 at 9:25 pm

    pedantic niggle –

    Looser is the opposite of tighter

    Loser is the opposite of winner

    • Alan 4.1
      25 November 2021 at 9:27 pm

      oops, thank you Cathy

      • In Vino 4.1.1
        25 November 2021 at 11:28 pm

        Illogicalities of stupid English spelling system:

        Loose sounds like goose (hard s like ss) but not like choose (soft s like z)

        Lose sounds like choose – same vowel sound with z sound, but only one o.

        Chose does not sound like lose because the vowel sound is totally different.

        Are there any conservative idiots on this thread who actually believe that English spelling should be taught through phonics?

        • RosieLee 4.1.1.1
          26 November 2021 at 7:03 am

          And there's an announcer on RNZ who insists on pronouncing "dose" as "doze".

        • Anne 4.1.1.2
          26 November 2021 at 10:10 am

          I dunno. English is a difficult language to comprehend sometimes – even for the English. I was in my teens before someone informed me that "choir" was NOT pronounced "Coy..a". And around 10/11 years old when someone else advised me it was "Hospital" not "Hospiddle".

          • alwyn 4.1.1.2.1
            26 November 2021 at 10:42 am

            I imagine they say Hospiddle in Whangarei Anne.

            With the sewage that is running down the inside of the walls in the Medical Wing it seems to be appropriate.

            "Sewage is now seeping into the walls from a 'stack' that runs down six floors." "The first leaks were discovered two months ago." "The Northland District Health Board expects the failing piping will take two years to fix, costing $2.8 million, because it is surrounded by asbestos."

            https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/sewage-leaking-into-whangarei-hospital-medical-wings-walls/NQQLYOTQ7ESDYVBY4JA4VYQJFU/

            I suppose that this is something that the current Government has managed. The falsely claimed that National did such a thing but now Labour have done it in reality. Shame if you are a patient of course but spending $51 million, to date, on the aborted cycleway next to the Auckland Harbour Bridge must have been much more fun.

            https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126575243/51m-spent-on-axed-auckland-harbour-cycling-bridge-project-residents-in-limbo

            • Nic the NZer 4.1.1.2.1.1
              26 November 2021 at 11:50 am

              Context is important. They only say Hospiddle when they don't 'like Mike'.

            • Pete 4.1.1.2.1.2
              26 November 2021 at 3:01 pm

              I visited the medical wing there twice in the past month and it seemed like business as usual in the rooms I went into. Is that a tribute to the Whangarei MPs of the past 25 years, John Banks, Phil Heatley and Shane Reti?

            • Tricledrown 4.1.1.2.1.3
              26 November 2021 at 3:06 pm

              That pales into insignificance compared to the sky tower cost over run on John Key's deal that's cost more than double and nearly bankrupted the largest building company in NZ.

              Alwyn not to mention the large Poole of funds to a Charter school which was paid to board members.

              Minions are out of favour right now Alwynger the right need to Poole their resources and look to the sky. As National supporters could just about all fit into a telephone box.

              • alwyn …
                27 November 2021 at 9:29 am

                " sky tower cost over run"

                I thought you would be one of those who say that businesses that can't compete should be allowed to fail.

                If a business freely enters a contract and gets it wrong and there was nothing unforseen about the situation why is it the Governments fault? On the other hand when a Government does something as stupid as proposing a billion dollar bike bridge the person who proposed it, and incurred the waste of $50+ million should be out on his ear.

          • Chris 4.1.1.2.2
            26 November 2021 at 11:59 am

            The PM probably says hospiddle.

    • mac1 4.2
      25 November 2021 at 10:03 pm

      Certainly National cannot be accused of having a 'tight team' but loose does describe their behaviour- loose of tongue, loose of loyalty, loose of cohesion, loose of morality, loose with the truth, loose with funding, loose with supporters' wishes and expectations.

      They can come back, but the soul-searching and honesty is yet to begin, to start the process.

      Instead, as I have predicted before and as Mickysavage states above, "prospects of it splitting into an urban liberal party and a rural country party" loom greater as inertia in needed reform and change convince more to abandon their cause as a lost one.

      Every recent failed MP, flawed candidate, flunked leader underscores this poverty of spirit and performance.

      • RedLogix 4.2.1
        25 November 2021 at 10:42 pm

        "prospects of it splitting into an urban liberal party and a rural country party"

        This has long been the case in Australia; they've effectively been a tripolar political system even though the long-standing coalition between the Liberals and Nationals has obscured this.

        • Michael 4.2.1.1
          26 November 2021 at 10:19 am

          More like Neoliberal Right and Far Right. Urban fat cats in tactical alliance with white surpremacists and bible-thumpers for the sake of grabbing the spoils. Both groups repel me but I can see their appeal to someone like you.

          • RedLogix 4.2.1.1.1
            26 November 2021 at 11:28 am

            white surpremacist

            The word 'racist' got misused to the point where it became useless – so now it's this emotive little phrase with connotations of the KKK and Nazis.

            This is a tactic being used to incite race violence.

            • Michael 4.2.1.1.1.1
              26 November 2021 at 1:47 pm

              “supremacist” – my bad.
              You said: “This is a tactic being used to incite race violence.”
              I say: By the political Right. Nice to see the organisers of "Unite the Right" get a taste of justice themselves in the US the other day.

              • RedLogix …
                26 November 2021 at 2:15 pm

                Nice to see the organisers of "Unite the Right" get a taste of justice themselves in the US the other day.

                I'm pretty sure those who suffered losses as a result of the BLM riots mostly peaceful protests will have taken notice.

            • SPC 4.2.1.1.1.2
              26 November 2021 at 2:05 pm

              The funny thing about the average white supremacist is their insecurity about their color and physique.

              Donald Trump’s most scandalous photo

              https://showbizgossiplifestyle.blogspot.com/2021/07/donald-trumps-most-scandalous-photo.html

            • Tricledrown 4.2.1.1.1.3
              26 November 2021 at 3:14 pm

              It's not inciting violence but pointing out the history of white superiority which exists . Its a manifestation of an inferiority complex.

              Murdoch is the number one purveyor of this divide and conquer strategy.

              Democracy is his enemy as his rich billionaire mates pay less and less tax by undermining the vote with voter suppression.

              It doesn't effect the white well off middle classes so they are happy to pretend it doesn't exist.

              • RedLogix …
                26 November 2021 at 3:21 pm

                It's not inciting violence but pointing out the history of white superiority which exists . Its a manifestation of an inferiority complex.

                It may well have history – but these days it's little more than a lazy piece of noise used on any person with white skin you happen to disagree with.

  5. Stan 5
    25 November 2021 at 10:18 pm

    Luxon, I agree, too soon for him. Need some time and distance from his evangelical beliefs, many of which will turn off the general (non-evangelical) population. Much too easy to attack, and actually may always be this way.

    There's really nobody who seems fit to be opposition leader, not that this matters to your average National Voter who thought Andrew Falloon or Hamish Walker would make a good MP.

    • georgecom 5.1
      25 November 2021 at 10:36 pm

      has to be bridges, the only real option. retread a leader who was knifed as 'national won't win with Bridges as leader', a nice quote from Todd Muller to follow Simon round between now and the next election. And then at some point Jamie Lee Ross will get on the stand and accuse Bridges of being a corrupt politician. True or not, and coming from Ross it must be taken with a large grain of salt, it will raise questions bridges will have to front. Yup, he is the man. dust him off and let some of the old skeletons out of the cupboard.

      Reti – a nice bloke who would make a nice leader, especially if you like a nice low profile party. Sort of the Geoffrey Palmer of National. A nice bloke.

      The guy from Botany. Anyone else reckon he looks like a roll on deodorant. Whats his name, Rexona Luxon?

    • RosieLee 5.2
      26 November 2021 at 7:06 am

      And so many of these stale, pale males have rather unpleasant backstories.

  6. Adrian 6
    25 November 2021 at 10:40 pm

    Agree Mac about the loose epithet, but can’t help wondering, do you think they are getting coaching from Ian Foster.

    • mac1 6.1
      26 November 2021 at 10:07 am

      Well, Adrian, they're like the ABs in that in the tight stuff they're rather loose and kick the ball back to the opposing team rather than run with it.

      As for their clearing out the opposition at the tackle- slow, uncommitted.

      Their team seems to be full of wingers all waiting for some loose ball to be magic with.

      My coaching uncle once told a famous AB winger, who was one of these glory boys, not to score between the posts. The winger just thought to win all they had to do was get the ball out to him. He however made the mistake of asking his coach why he should not score under the bar.

      He was told his head was so big he would get stuck there………..

  7. newsense 7
    25 November 2021 at 10:51 pm

    Chris Bishop not mentioned? Always seems to do a good public facing display of civility and gentility, as well as liking rugby.
    Where does this leave the Nat factions and what are they?

  8. SPC 8
    26 November 2021 at 2:23 am

    For mine Collins knew her time was up and so set about taking out Bridges as successor. Her support for Luxon confirms this, she would would need the patronage of the new leader to survive.

    • Gezza 8.1
      26 November 2021 at 4:58 pm

      Interesting Theory. One of my visiting family guests – they left today to return home after a 5 day stay – reckons Collins has deliberately engineered her own removal as she knew she was going to be dumped soon anyway.

  9. Maurice 9
    26 November 2021 at 3:05 am

    The elephant in the room is Mallard – when has the Speaker of the House been so critical of their own Party?

    The present cannon smoke will clear in relatively short order and if "Kiwi Jab" joins "Kiwi Build" along with a litany of other perceived failures when the "Covid for Christmas" wave hits with the vaxxed being exposed but the unvaxxed being locked away largely dodging the bullet …. then some very ugly and scruffy chickens may come home to roost.

    The present turmoil of an opposition party is mere distraction.

    • Ad 9.1
      26 November 2021 at 7:16 am

      The virus isn't waiting for parliamentary process.

      That Labour may in time lose the crown for "World's Best Managed Pandemic Response", doesn't alter the fact that they wear it now.

      We might like to have a functioning Opposition, but we're not going to have one now until mid 2022.

      In terms of chickens coming home, many of them are infected and we all know that the disease rate will rise in February.

      • Maurice 9.1.1
        26 November 2021 at 9:04 am

        Legislation will have little if any effect upon the spread. Indeed it is designed to enable that spread. At least the vnvaxxed may have a little more protection than the vaxxed – by being sequestered from society.

        How many will die?

        • Tricledrown 9.1.1.1
          26 November 2021 at 9:18 am

          Mandates do work scientific evidence has proven that fact.

          Looking for the 26% who don't agree is why National is floundering trying to make King hits on the Govt. Backfiring just like Crushless Collins.

        • Ad 9.1.1.2
          26 November 2021 at 10:13 am

          So I've been holed up in my house for 101 days for nothing?

          • RedLogix 9.1.1.2.1
            26 November 2021 at 10:15 am

            It depends. Lockdowns were only ever a tool for buying time.

            What do you think was purchased?

            • Ad 9.1.1.2.1.1
              26 November 2021 at 10:25 am

              Time for the system to get its shit together.

              • Tricledrown …
                26 November 2021 at 11:45 am

                So you would prefer Europe which is going back into lockdown or Victoria Australia 285 days.

                Your argument doesn't ad up.

                But we appreciate Aucklands sacrifices to protect our health system and give time for everyone to get vaccinated and build immunity.

                Aucklanders are heroes.

          • Maurice 9.1.1.2.2
            27 November 2021 at 12:30 am

            Rather – Very little

            101 days of living life as you choose that you will never get back

        • GreenBus 9.1.1.3
          26 November 2021 at 11:41 am

          9.1.1

          They will break the rules when it suits them. They don't like rules either. So we need to be aware and keep distances when possible.

        • Patricia Bremner 9.1.1.4
          26 November 2021 at 2:45 pm

          Not as many will die as have done elsewhere if we keep to the rules Maurice.

          If people stupidly have endless parties there will be outbreaks. Are you hoping for the latter Maurice???? Are you waiting to say "I told you so"?

  10. observer 10
    26 November 2021 at 7:40 am

    Imagine you are a party leader who has just been dumped, in the most publicly humiliating way. What would you do next?

    I expect for most of us it would be switch off the phone, chill out, a nice walk, fresh air, family time, etc. Maybe have a lie-in. Not Judith Collins.

    She's on Newstalk ZB this morning chucking poor Shane under the bus: "Dr Shane Reti and I decided the only thing to do was what I did."

    If anyone thinks this is all over, and she will graciously exit the stage, they don't know Judith Collins.

    • garibaldi 10.1
      26 November 2021 at 8:27 am

      Oh we know her alright observer and personally I am glad she is staying on so that she can continue with her nasty underhand revenge antics. It is exactly what National deserves.
      Maybe leave Bridges in there too now that he will always be damaged goods.

    • RedLogix 10.2
      26 November 2021 at 9:57 am

      My guess is the Party will have to expel her.

      • SPC 10.2.1
        26 November 2021 at 12:10 pm

        She might struggle to retain electorate backing and then all the party has to do is "warn" her of a low list placement and so she will simply retire.

        • RedLogix 10.2.1.1
          26 November 2021 at 12:32 pm

          In the usual run of events I think Ad's comment below about 'keeping your enemies close' would apply. But Collins has an unusually ambitious and ruthless streak that's probably safer on the outside of the tent.

          But yes I think you're right – rather than more public drama it would be smarter to handle it as you've suggested.

          • SPC 10.2.1.1.1
            26 November 2021 at 12:48 pm

            They need to learn from the Chicago school – no drama Obama.

            But I suspect they will go the Alinski route (to compete with ACT)

            1. Three Waters – loss of local asset management (as influenced by local farming and business interests) control to iwi …

            2. Howling from the provinces about environment (waterway quality), conservation (habitat and wildlife protection) and global warming mitigation responsibility being too much central government for the laid back provincial landowning class.

            3. He Puapua, the haka dancing iwi invading Wellington to end democracy

            4. The call for those born biological female woman to stand by their Promise Keeper man Chris (the new birther movement)

            5. Public debt meaning a threat of estate taxes is on coming over the horizon to get babyboomers (the next Taxpayers Union astro turf war).

            • RedLogix 10.2.1.1.1.1
              26 November 2021 at 1:22 pm

              Well at least one experienced National voice wants to go the 'no drama' route.

              Former attorney-general Christopher Finlayson said the events of yesterday were beyond human comprehension.

              He hopes some of the key players – including Simon Bridges and Judith Collins – use the summer to consider whether their future lies in politics.

              "I think there comes a time when people need to consider, it happened to me, whether or not their contribution to politics is complete and whether there are other avenues that they could pursue.

              "Maybe Simon and Judith need to reflect on the events of the last 18 months and consider whether or not they should perhaps move on for the good of the party."

              • Patricia Bremner …
                26 November 2021 at 2:54 pm

                Chris Findlayson forgot to mention Bedfellow. How come he has weathered everything from Ede and c/o to this? Must be teflon.

                • RedLogix …
                  26 November 2021 at 3:01 pm

                  I think you mean Goodfellow? And the so far unexamined role of the Board in this. Good questions.

                  If I had to guess it would be his firm grip on the donation stream.

    • Ad 10.3
      26 November 2021 at 10:12 am

      The new permanent National leader should immediately appoint her to what she knows best: spokesperson on Police, Justice, Crime, and ACC.

      They need a specific Crime portfolio, and the ACC one is about to get real important with Robertson's massive social insurance project.

      They can't afford the loss of talent and they desperately need her and her supporters on the inside.

    • Michael 10.4
      26 November 2021 at 10:22 am

      Observer – I hope you're right. The Nats will stay toxic as long as Crusher and Peter Badfellow are around. That means Cameron Slater too, as he is indispensable to their power within the Party.

    • Enough is Enough 10.5
      26 November 2021 at 12:50 pm

      If you want to keep your enemies quiet, you bring them in very close. Nine weeks after the general election in 1996, Helen Clark faced off a challenge from senior colleagues (led by Michael Cullen, with Phil Goff and Annette King close by). Guess what she did with them. Brought them in very close which resulted in a unified caucus for more than a decade.

      I am not sure National understands politics so I dount they will do this, but the best move for the new leader would be to bring Collins in close and giver her a front bench placing.

      • Tricledrown 10.5.1
        26 November 2021 at 1:14 pm

        A new portfolio for Collins chief shit stirrer

      • observer 10.5.2
        26 November 2021 at 4:56 pm

        I disagree. The analogy doesn't stack up.

        Clark knew that those MPs had a future in the party and could be relied on to behave like normal human beings. Judith Collins is Judith Collins. Beyond redemption.

        A better comparison would be John Key taking over from Brash in 2006, and pushing him out. There was the same discussion back then – "give him a portfolio". He got nothing. The Brash fans squealed for a few days (good old Kiwiblog was full of rage). Until the polls came out. The smiling assassin got it right.

        Like Michael above, I will be overjoyed if the new leader is foolish enough to keep the time bomb ticking. Bridges won't. The others? We'll see.

  11. Ad 11
    26 November 2021 at 11:17 am

    In a minor tangent, it's beginning to look like Labour wiping out the ability of Members to have a say in leadership contests was actually useful.

    Labour's clean approach in the 2017 appointment of Ardern from Deputy to Leader looks quite assured.

  12. Tricledrown 12
    26 November 2021 at 11:52 am

    So you would prefer Europe which is going back into lockdown or Victoria Australia 285 days.

    Your argument doesn't ad up.

    But we appreciate Aucklands sacrifices to protect our health system and give time for everyone to get vaccinated and build immunity.

    Aucklanders are heroes.

  13. swordfish 13
    26 November 2021 at 12:23 pm

    .

    and the prospects of it splitting into an urban liberal party and a rural country party must be pretty high.

    Wouldn't have thought so … the major parties are nothing if not durable & resilient … I remember numerous Nats & their media backers prophesying the split / end of the Labour Party during the Key years … all wishful thinking / disingenuous rhetorical strategies.

  14. SPC 14
    26 November 2021 at 12:34 pm

    One side of new leadership is the influence they might have on party (and possibly future government) positions

    For example

    Luxon supports a "no jab, no pay" policy for sanctioning welfare beneficiaries who do not vaccinate their children.

  15. JO 15
    26 November 2021 at 1:30 pm

    Into the valley of death she surged, her banner of martyrdom emblazoned thus: 'I have no spur to prick the sides of my intent, but only vaulting ambition, which o'erleaps itself and falls on t'other,' accompanied by the volley and thunder of the 1812 Overture's cannon. It's a very old human story.

  16. Enough is Enough 16
    26 November 2021 at 2:27 pm

    I think they will go with the Luxon/Willis leadership team. Top 10 will be:

    • Luxon
    • Willis
    • Reti
    • Bridges
    • Bishop
    • Stanford
    • Mitchell
    • Bayly
    • Lee
    • Penk
    • SPC 16.1
      26 November 2021 at 2:46 pm

      Willis as deputy would highlight/commit them to the agreement with Labour that

      1. threatens to darken the sun in the urban neighbourhood.

      2. undermine urban planning design of intensification around public transport.

      3. risk overloading areas with already stressed wastewater and roading.

      4. lead to low quality design and building quality (and with likely consequences for councils responsible for consents – as per leaky homes).

    • rod 16.2
      26 November 2021 at 4:58 pm

      I think they are all waiting for John Key to tell them what to do.smiley

  17. North 17
    29 November 2021 at 11:36 pm

    Haven't had the time to read any of the thread but Judith's gonna say "ka ki te" ? Neh….because Judith is an 'officeholder'. And she will take her stipend. A caricature of rump Papakura…..an 'officeholder'. I mean Hyacinth Bucket is more pleasing to the senses and she's not even an 'officeholder'.

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