The world’s stock markets: I see Red

156 comments on “The world’s stock markets: I see Red ”

• Comments are now closed

1. Sabine 1

   25 August 2015 at 8:25 am

   any statements from Dear Leader, Mr. English, and Business Guru Steven Joyce forthcoming to assure the peeps at home to just continue to consume and keep the economy going?

   crickets?
   • les 1.1

     25 August 2015 at 8:53 am

     they were on the cusp of something special…before international events ,that they have no influence over impacted on their plan.
     • Draco T Bastard 1.1.1

       25 August 2015 at 10:03 am

       And it’s all Labour’s fault anyway.

       /sarc
       • Al 1.1.1.1

         25 August 2015 at 1:59 pm

         Johnboy would be so proud
     • David H 1.1.2

       25 August 2015 at 11:08 am

       Yes a Crash ‘n’ Burn of monumental proportions.
   • tracey 1.2

     25 August 2015 at 10:01 am

     Pretty sure Key is comfortable with what is happening in China

     “John Key says problems with China’s financial stability will affect New Zealand far more than the upheaval in Greece.

     China’s net worth has fallen by $50 billion after the continued decline of its domestic stock market.

     It’s New Zealand’s second-biggest trading partner, and the Prime Minister says its volatilities will hurt New Zealand. Comparatively, Greece is 74th.

     “When we look into the crystal ball and say ‘what are the big factors we worry about?’, China is always an important factor like Australia is, because they are such as influential part of our economy,” Mr Key told reporters yesterday.

     “China is a far more influential partner. It’s a big driver of global growth. Greece is a sentiment story, I think.”

     Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/chinas-financial-slump-could-affect-new-zealand-2015070706#ixzz3jlxDSYlC June 2015

     ““John Key can no longer afford to be complacent on the possible difficulties our economy faces given our $23 billion export exposure to the Chinese and Australian economies,” Green Party Co-leader Metiria Turei said.

     “China’s troubles will have a double whammy effect on our export economy given the fact that our biggest trading partner, Australia, is also getting hit by China’s economic slowdown.

     “Our exports to our two biggest trading partners, China and Australia, are both at risk from events taking place in China right now.

     “Other parts of the economy, like domestic retail spending, can step up to offset falls in export values, but our long-term economic prosperity depends on the value we add to our exports.

     “The National Government has consistently downplayed the vulnerability of our commodity-based export economy rather than fix it.

     “By focusing on investing and developing the dairy sector, National’s made a short-term bet on dairy prices rather than build a diversified, resilient export sector.

     “A smarter way forward is to invest in innovation and policies that support adding value to our export and import substitution sectors.

     “New Zealand invests half what most other developed countries do on research and development and National has failed to turn this number around in any significant way,” said Mrs Turei.” July 2015
     http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1507/S00165/key-can-no-longer-be-complacent-on-china-slowdown.htm
     “
     • Draco T Bastard 1.2.1

       25 August 2015 at 10:36 am

       Other parts of the economy, like domestic retail spending, can step up to offset falls in export values, but our long-term economic prosperity depends on the value we add to our exports.

       A complete misunderstanding of what the economy is or it’s purpose. We don’t become richer by having more money in the bank. In fact, I’d say that having more money in the bank is to become poorer.

       By focusing on investing and developing the dairy sector, National’s made a short-term bet on dairy prices rather than build a diversified, resilient export sector.

       If we’d built a diversified and resilient economy we wouldn’t be dependent upon exports or imports at all. In fact, the global economy could do what it liked and we would be only minorly affected.
       • thatguynz 1.2.1.1

         25 August 2015 at 11:39 am

         “If we’d built a diversified and resilient economy we wouldn’t be dependent upon exports or imports at all. In fact, the global economy could do what it liked and we would be only minorly affected.”

         +1000 DtB
2. Tory 2

   25 August 2015 at 8:59 am

   China has been suffering significant internal strife especially within the Party with purges ongoing around corruption. Add to that China growth of 7% is well below growth predictions and the Party attempted to provide confidence by financially supporting its currency, stock market and housing. They failed and their market crashed. First to feel the pain are commodity prices (such as oil). NZ is a drop in the ocean when it comes to international markets and we cannot avoid the fallout. What will be interesting is if the China issue becomes worse.
3. Phil 3

   25 August 2015 at 9:08 am

   I heard a great theory recently – the Saudi’s are pumping oil as fast as they can to deliberately depress oil prices.

   They’re doing so because, as much as it hurts them, it hurts ISIS pumping in Iraq even more. If the cash flow to ISIS dwindles, their active operations fall apart and the threat to Saudi political security diminishes.
   • Sabine 3.1

     25 August 2015 at 9:13 am

     but but freedom, french fries, n stuff…..was that not what the US/Uk and other assorted allies brought to Iraq?

     No they did not you say?

     Lol
   • Colonial Viper 3.2

     25 August 2015 at 9:20 am

     The Saudis are a major source of support for ISIS.
     • Sabine 3.2.1

       25 August 2015 at 9:50 am

       We have always been at war with Eastasia.

       Mohamed Mossadegh
       The Sha
       Ayatolla Kohmeni
       invasion of Afghanistan by Russia
       Saddam Hussein
       Osama Bin Laden
       Al Quaida
       Saudi Arabia
       Isis

       the boogy man………..

       I think we can say confidently that all of these are creations of the US and their foreign policy starting (if not earlier) with the overthrow of a democratically elected President of Iran in 1953 continued with the russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 and their various other meddling in the Middle East to provide them with ‘friendly’ governments to work with. We shall also not forget that the Saudi Kings are great friends of the US.

       so really the boogeyman Isis, is the bo0geyman Saddam Hussein, is the boogeyman Osama bin Ladan, is the bo0geyman Al Quaida, is the boogeyman Isis, is the boogeyman of saudi wahhabism which incidentally is the flavour of Isis wahhabism. But then we all know that some beheadings are more moral then others.

       so yeah….next time i will add a snark thingy.
       • the pigman 3.2.1.1

         25 August 2015 at 9:02 pm

         We have always been at war with Eastasia.

         Yet everything you listed happened/is happening in West Asia.
       • the pigman 3.2.1.2

         25 August 2015 at 9:02 pm

         We have always been at war with Eastasia.

         Yet everything you listed happened/is happening in West Asia.
   • Clemgeopin 3.3

     25 August 2015 at 9:33 am

     I had read (a rumour? )that the main reason was to make Russia suffer with low oil prices. The dirty manipulations and control of the so called ‘free market’.
     • Ovid 3.3.1

       25 August 2015 at 9:42 am

       The US has been building capacity in its oil production over the past decade and is on track to have energy independence come 2020. It’s increased its use of biofuels and just over half its imports come from the Americas. 28% (as of 2013) comes from the Persian Gulf.

       In 2014, around 27% of the petroleum consumed in the US came from abroad.

       Source

       The dirty manipulations and control of the so called ‘free market’.

       Given the reputations of companies like Chevron, BP, Shell and Exxon Mobil, I don’t think the oil industry is particularly concerned about the practices of foreign governments or geopolitical implications so long as they can make a buck. They don’t exist to depress the oil price.
       • Colonial Viper 3.3.1.1

         25 August 2015 at 9:44 am

         Bear in mind that US fracking production is likely to dramatically drop from 2020 onwards and be closing on zero by 2030.
       • Clemgeopin 3.3.1.2

         25 August 2015 at 9:53 am

         But the Middle East (Saudi) oil production (upwards or downwards) is entirely dictated by the US ally, the King himself, right? That could be both for economic and/or political reasons as desired by USA (Kerry) as the circumstances dictate?
         • Ovid 3.3.1.2.1

           25 August 2015 at 10:06 am

           Only within OPEC, but they only have a dozen members. Places like Brazil, the US, Malaysia, Russia, Norway, Canada and Kazakhstan (and NZ, for our own small part) are oil producers that aren’t governed by OPECs edicts. There’s been an exploration boom and an increase in fracking plus greater biofuel production and energy efficiency. That’s enough to explain the price – especially as an economic downturn means a reduced demand for energy.
         • GregJ 3.3.1.2.2

           25 August 2015 at 10:47 am

           OPEC is a cartel so all of the members have to agree on raising or lowering production. So its easy to block a decision but not so easy to force one through. That said the Saudis do have a large influence over OPEC.
           • les 3.3.1.2.2.1

             25 August 2015 at 10:50 am

             re OPEC the Saudis do exactly what they want,just like the U.N…the U.S does exactly what it wants.
             • GregJ …

               25 August 2015 at 10:59 am

               The Saudis certainly lead but there is more nuance to it than that – especially in relation to the Gulf states and the other 3 Arab states.
       • Draco T Bastard 3.3.1.3

         25 August 2015 at 11:05 am

         The US has been building capacity in its oil production over the past decade and is on track to have energy independence come 2020.

         Hahahahahaha…

         Oh, wait, you were serious.

         Drilling for oil will never produce energy independence as the oil supply itself is limited.

         It’s increased its use of biofuels and just over half its imports come from the Americas.

         And what happens when the rest of the Americas stop exporting oil to the US? Bio-fuels will not be able to take up the slack.

         Given the reputations of companies like Chevron, BP, Shell and Exxon Mobil, I don’t think the oil industry is particularly concerned about the practices of foreign governments or geopolitical implications so long as they can make a buck.

         Which is why they own the politicians.
   • GregJ 3.4

     25 August 2015 at 10:44 am

     This might help understand what’s going on a little better

     There are a number of geo-political reasons for the Saudis refusing to budge over OPEC Production rates but the low prices are starting to bite its Gulf allies economies – UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman as well as Iraq. Qatar is not as bad as it has enormous financial reserves like the Saudis. The Saudis and Qataris have been pumping a lot of money into the Gulf Development Fund for this reason and there is on-going and detailed discussion on extending the GCC into something closer to a Gulf Union like the EU.

     Most of the Gulf 15-20 year development plans were predicated on US$100/barrel.
4. adam 4

   25 August 2015 at 9:13 am

   This crisis is closer to the last one than one before it. The next will be closer still. Liberalism as an economic system, is so fundamentally flawed.

   Which reminds me – if our great grand parents went to jail, had street battles up Queen St, formed the labour party, and generally defied the oligarchies of their day.

   Why are we so happy to sit and do nothing while our country burns under the weight of international capitalism – whilst it plunders and spoils – our once green and fertile land?
   • Colonial Viper 4.1

     25 August 2015 at 9:45 am

     If you feel so strongly, you can always sign an online petition…

     😛
     • GregJ 4.1.1

       25 August 2015 at 10:49 am

       Well played sir, well played! 👿
     • adam 4.1.2

       25 August 2015 at 11:38 am

       You know what I’m doing 🙂
   • sirpat 4.2

     26 August 2015 at 4:39 pm

     Its called being a puter protester……no need to mix with ruffians and protesters personally…..sorry ruffians…..I meant police
5. Bearded Git 5

   25 August 2015 at 9:18 am

   Jamie Gray in the NZ Herald, still under the spell of Key/English/Joyce woffle, comes up with the following 4 reasons why the NZ stock exchange hasn’t been hit as hard:

   • Much of the weakness overseas is related to oil and resources, which do not feature strongly on the NZX.
   • The economy is generally in better shape than many of its peers.
   • There are still levers to pull if the economy does worsen from here – such as lower interest rates and a lower exchange rate.
   • The company reporting season has seen some solid results, which has helped to offset some of the weakness.

   While there is some validity in 1 and 4, reason 2 appears to be bollocks given the dairy price plummet, exchange rate plummet (“NZ Dollar slumps to lowest level in 6 years” is the Herald headline now) and the rapid loss of confidence in the economy shown in surveys, and reason 3 supports the exchange rate to drop even further which will make NZ’s US$ denominated debt skyrocket further.

   Given the above, and the fact that most of the losses in Europe and the US markets happened after the NZX closed, we can expect the NZ stock market to slide more today in line with overseas markets. Watch this space.
   • Lanthanide 5.1

     25 August 2015 at 9:28 am

     That was my thinking about his weird comments, too.
   • Lara 5.2

     25 August 2015 at 10:40 am

     A cursory look at household debt in NZ puts those ideas down the drain.

     NZ is vulnerable. Very much so.
   • Bearded Git 5.3

     25 August 2015 at 10:46 am

     ….and the NZX is down 2.6% at 10-45
     • Phil 5.3.1

       25 August 2015 at 1:10 pm

       As at 1.00pm, it has recovered somewhat: down 1.25% since opening this morning. Looks like it’ll be fairly quiet day here.
6. Lanthanide 6

   25 August 2015 at 9:24 am

   There have been many posts by Gail the Actuary over the last several months that pin everything back to oil:
   http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/05/06/why-we-have-an-oversupply-of-almost-everything-oil-labor-capital-etc/
   http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/07/22/nine-reasons-why-low-oil-prices-may-morph-into-something-much-worse/
   http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/09/21/low-oil-prices-sign-of-a-debt-bubble-collapse-leading-to-the-end-of-oil-supply/
   http://ourfiniteworld.com/oil-supply-limits-and-the-continuing-financial-crisis/
   http://ourfiniteworld.com/2015/08/10/how-economic-growth-fails/

   These are all fairly detailed reads, and there’s much more on her blog as well. Although after reading a few of them I end up feeling a bit depressed, and it often seems like she’s stating the same basic things over and over again: increased oil prices leads to reduced consumption, resulting in a vicious circle of declining consumption, leading to unemployment and inability to pay high prices for oil, resulting in oil supply decrease, etc.
   • Colonial Viper 6.1

     25 August 2015 at 9:47 am

     The interesting thing is that it appears that consumers in the real economy now seem barely able to afford oil even when it is back down to US$40bb.

     A bad sign.
     • Lanthanide 6.1.1

       25 August 2015 at 10:08 am

       Yes. It’s insidious because it goes counter to all of the orthodox thinking – price goes down, demand goes up. But demand isn’t going up much at all.

       So everyone sits around saying “this is weird, it doesn’t make sense” and they come up with all sorts of baloney theories, couched in orthodoxy, to try and explain it.

       It has the unintended consequence of kicking the can down the road further, but ultimately it seems like we’ll end up in a worse position than if the problem were understood and addressed directly.
       • RedLogix 6.1.1.1

         25 August 2015 at 10:14 am

         + Lots

         Mainly I think because the EROI monkey has a firm grip.
       • Draco T Bastard 6.1.1.2

         25 August 2015 at 11:15 am

         So everyone sits around saying “this is weird, it doesn’t make sense” and they come up with all sorts of baloney theories, couched in orthodoxy, to try and explain it.

         That’s because they’ve forgotten that the economic price for oil is $10/barrel. There’s a short term flexibility but anything more than that and the economy stagnates.

         The only option we have is to go full renewable but the oil oligarch’s don’t like that idea because then they’ll be poor – very poor – as they’re just not worth anything.
7. Vaughan Little 7

   25 August 2015 at 9:26 am

   after mao shuffled off, the communist party decided to develop a system of consensus-based rule, where ideas would be deliberated on before being passed as policy. institutions were developed that would have enough heft to drive policy development and coordination. the latest president, however, formed party-side policy small groups whose authority would override that of the regular organs of state. and the president who formed these groups also presides over most of them. including the ones making all the daffy calls on the economy of late.
   • tracey 7.1

     25 August 2015 at 10:05 am

     What they need is MORE Capitalism, not less
     • Draco T Bastard 7.1.1

       25 August 2015 at 11:16 am

       Sounds like they’re getting more capitalism – one person calling all the shots.
       • vaughan little 7.1.1.1

         26 August 2015 at 1:30 am

         this is an instance where i think the left-right dichotomy fails. george orwell (i’m not a fanboy but he’s somewhat important) identified back in the 30s that communism and capitalism tend to morph into each other. it’s interesting that you say capitalism is where one person calls all the shots. that’s the direction that capitalism heads in historically, but in my reading around the financial world, there is any number of card carrying trader-capitalists who are mightily unhappy with that. if only there was better intercourse between the left and right (better than, say, len and bevan), the forces on both sides could unite to try to decentralize some of this toxic bossy-britches back-slapping gladhanding power… get markets and society working properer again. but alas, we are so foreign to each other, across the left-right divide.
         • Draco T Bastard 7.1.1.1.1

           26 August 2015 at 3:17 am

           get markets and society working properer again.

           You’re working on the false assumption that markets have worked.
8. Ad 8

   25 August 2015 at 9:35 am

   I am not convinced this is a crisis for New Zealand at all.

   – The things we make – mostly bulk or low-processed foods – are stuff people especially Chinse need.

   – The housing demand pipieline, and immigration, will continue to prop up real estate prices.

   – The government is stable, and has plenty of infrastructure works in the pipeline

   – Our lower dollar will prop up tourism

   – The collapse of the oil price will keep production costs low

   – Reserve Bank still has plenty of room to cut if it needs to.

   I am not saying it is good, but I dont see this as a crisis for New Zealand.
   And it’s a great time for the Oppsition to come out and make noises about coherent economic planning for our common future.
   • Sabine 8.1

     25 August 2015 at 10:05 am

     – dairy prices are going down at the moment not up. Chinese demand will soon be fully supplied by Chinese producers.
     – could continue, but if our dear overseas investor+ and other migrants run out of money …..
     -and all the infrastructure is paid for how? Oh…yeas….100 billion in debt. All is well.
     -the people overseas need money for vacation, the low dollar might be attractive, but if they don’t have the money for plane tickets etc, they might just vacation in balconia (on your own balcony in england/germany/france/us etc)
     -When people are too poor to afford gasoline you have a problem
     -wonder what the reserve bank is gonna do.

     yeah, no crisis for us here in NZ, all is good in NZ, surely the PM is comfortable with the happenings in the world markets, and now watch this drive.
     • Draco T Bastard 8.1.1

       25 August 2015 at 11:18 am

       +111
   • tracey 8.2

     25 August 2015 at 10:06 am

     we used to say that China would always need milk products too.

     with their manufacturing decline, what happens next time our trains break…
     • Atiawa 8.2.1

       25 August 2015 at 11:38 am

       They used to say that China needs capitalism.
       Then they said capitalism needs China.
       Now they say????
       • Clemgeopin 8.2.1.1

         25 August 2015 at 12:51 pm

         “Now they say????’

         ‘Al’s well. No crisis. Nothing to see, nothing to hear here. We got a Rock Star!’
   • Anno1701 8.3

     25 August 2015 at 11:21 am

     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HVogejKx_c
9. Liam 9

   25 August 2015 at 10:03 am

   China is punishing the American veto of their chair to the IMF… eventually china will be challenging the US to show their gold reserve (non existent) and setup the new global trade currency, nothing can be done all this jostling, now is just US trying to hold onto the banking power, but it is futile as minor market manipulation in china destroys all markets across the west.
   • Melanie Scott 9.1

     25 August 2015 at 8:36 pm

     Read ‘The Death of Money’ (away from home so can’t give author’s name) at Christmas. Very interesting chapter on who owns and who is buying up all the world’s gold.
10. RedLogix 10

    25 August 2015 at 10:11 am

    Everyone sees the wrong end of these routine so-called ‘crashes’.

    Sure if you own a stock that falls 10% or more – YOU have lost money. But the person (or entity) you bought them off has not. They still have the cash you paid for them.

    Money is never ‘lost’ or ‘destroyed’. It merely changes hands.
    • Lanthanide 10.1

      25 August 2015 at 10:16 am

      Not true.

      You buy some land for $1M. Over time, the land appreciates in value to $10M. You borrow $5M from the bank, with the land as security. You spend this money into the economy. The bank records the $5M loan as an asset, because they will get the money paid back to them in time. A crash occurs and your land is now worth $2M. You are underwater on your loan by a significant extent. If you sell the land and go bankrupt, the bank may recover the $2M from the land sale, but the $3M asset on their books is now worthless and ceases to exist.

      Money was created, and then it was destroyed by the crash.
      • les 10.1.1

        25 August 2015 at 10:22 am

        so repeat your scenario many times…the banks losses accumulate to the point of insolvency…the bondholders an d shareholders are about to lose bigtime…in steps the govt ,to bail them out with taxpayers money…all is well again!
      • RedLogix 10.1.2

        25 August 2015 at 10:27 am

        You spend this money into the economy.

        Changed hands
        • Lanthanide 10.1.2.1

          25 August 2015 at 10:28 am

          And that $5M was spent on land that is now worth $0. The recipients of that money used it to pay off debt.

          Money destroyed.
          • RedLogix 10.1.2.1.1

            25 August 2015 at 10:43 am

            Not looking in the right place Lanth
            • Colonial Viper 10.1.2.1.1.1

              25 August 2015 at 1:26 pm

              Lanth extended your share transaction example into an example using debt, which actually has different rules.

              Increasing debt creates money into the economy. Paying debt back destroys money out of the economy.

              That’s why TPTB have been encouraging ever increasing levels of debt and credit – to try and push more money into the economy.
              • Clemgeopin …

                25 August 2015 at 5:05 pm

                You keep writing that often.

                I hope you are not running your household affairs like that!

                The debt HAS to be paid back sooner or later by us or our future generations and with added compounding interest, is it not? Otherwise why did Cullen bother to run surpluses every year and pay back most of our National debt in his nine years in government?

                or do you want NZ to follow the example of USA which has been happily accumulating and has surpassed $18 trillion dollars of National debt?

                Last year, the U.S. spent $430 billion on interest payments alone
                while NZ spends 5 billion dollars each year on interest alone!

                https://www.informationstation.org/kitchen_table_econ/the-u-s-is-now-18-trillion-in-debt/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=googlegrants2015&gclid=Cj0KEQjwgeuuBRCiwpD0hP3Cg4kBEiQAHflm1pKI-TcN9SR1o9pqnpAmNRH-TUxFH1wJwjUl1cZ3SScaAhLM8P8HAQ
    • Lara 10.2

      25 August 2015 at 10:45 am

      In a crash like this it’s not just those losing money on the markets, that money ceases to exist (it was debt based in the first place).

      When markets crash it filters through to the everyday economy.

      Look what happened for everyday people in parts of the US and much of Europe after the last crash. It’s not pretty.

      And I’m expecting NZ is next in line. We got off pretty lightly last time in the crash from 2007 to 2009. This time our household debt is too high and our property market has all the hallmarks of a bubble.

      And the thing about bubbles is they burst. Every. Single. Time.

      And there’s not a damn thing any government or authority has ever been able to do about it once fear takes hold.

      Getting rid of debt and holding cash is the best approach. I wouldn’t want to be an over leveraged Auckland property owner today.

      But the other thing I have learned about bubbles and crashes is that when you point them out people rarely want to hear it. Even when you’re right. You’re still greeted with derision. Particularly by people who are invested in the bubbles.

      I really should learn to shut my mouth. Can’t seem to learn that one 🙂
      • Clemgeopin 10.2.1

        25 August 2015 at 11:15 am

        <i."But the other thing I have learned about bubbles and crashes is that when you point them out people rarely want to hear it'

        That is because there is a happy glint in a child’s eye when looking at a VERY BIG balloon rather than at a burst one.

        small, big, bigger, more-bigger, more-bigger, even-more-bigger, biggest,..burst!….Oh, bugger!…Whoops,
        —–
        Rest a while and the cycle starts again…..
      • tracey 10.2.2

        25 August 2015 at 11:21 am

        Kiwisaver
        • Clemgeopin 10.2.2.1

          25 August 2015 at 11:55 am

          “Kiwisaver”

          His name is Andrew
      • les 10.2.3

        25 August 2015 at 11:25 am

        when is the Sydney property ‘bubble’ going to burst…its been heading 1 way for decades!
      • maui 10.2.4

        25 August 2015 at 12:57 pm

        I’m with you on all that Lara.
      • keyman 10.2.5

        25 August 2015 at 9:47 pm

        the thing is there was no reform from the gfc nobody was jailed the madness carried on this is going to be a big one
        side note tim cook predicted the oil crash 2 years ago
        i hope all these people who voted key are happy now those who stopped labour reform policy and diversification of the economy are happy congratulations but we told you so greedy fuckers deserve what’s coming to them
    • AmaKiwi 10.3

      25 August 2015 at 6:38 pm

      RedLogix

      “Money is never ‘lost’ or ‘destroyed’. It merely changes hands.”

      100% wrong! In a deflation, money IS destroyed.

      You put $1 million in the bank. You think you have $1 million. No! What you have is a $1 million debt the bank owes you. If the bank fails, your $1 million is DESTROYED. The same applies to bonds whether they are corporate bonds or Greek national bonds.

      Markets are crashing because money is being destroyed NOW, as we speak.
      • RedLogix 10.3.1

        25 August 2015 at 6:54 pm

        Sighs – when you purchased $1m worth of shares you paid cash to someone. Did you not?

        You have to assume that person did not go outside and set fire to it. Sure the value of your SHARES has fallen – but the value of the money you bought them with has not.

        Follow the money.
        • Mike S 10.3.1.1

          25 August 2015 at 8:16 pm

          “but the value of the money you bought them with has not.”

          If deflation is occurring then the value of that money has actually increased due to a higher purchasing power than it had before deflation occurred.
          • RedLogix 10.3.1.1.1

            25 August 2015 at 8:49 pm

            Falling Share Prices =/= Deflation

            Shares are not the only asset category.
      • Mike S 10.3.2

        25 August 2015 at 8:13 pm

        “In a deflation, money IS destroyed.”

        No, in a deflation, the value of money increases, there’s just not enough of available it to support the economy. It also depends upon what type of defaltion, i.e you can have monetary deflation or as shrinking of the money supply, which is great for savers, or you can have deflation due to banks restricting credit or the central bank increasing interest rates which means there ends up becoming less money available per person to be used in the overall economy, etc,etc,etc.

        Deflation is generally bad for debtors but good for savers.
        • AmaKiwi 10.3.2.1

          26 August 2015 at 1:32 am

          Mike S

          Correct, “Deflation is generally bad for debtors but good for savers,” BUT we are ALL debtors.

          Personally, I don’t any money. But my city and country owe heaps of money for which we are all responsible. As NZ citizens, me and my family are I responsible for more debt than we are ever likely to be able to repay.
11. Enough is Enough 11

    25 August 2015 at 11:37 am

    Lets all just hope this tips New Zealand into recession so that we finally rid ourselves of Key
    • Sabine 11.1

      25 August 2015 at 12:03 pm

      oh dear.
      oh dear
      oh dear.
    • Clemgeopin 11.2

      25 August 2015 at 12:05 pm

      Hope not to the first part. As for the second part, I think there is a more than 60% chance that he will get rid of himself to Hawaii well on time before the next election. Bets?
      • Draco T Bastard 11.2.1

        25 August 2015 at 3:33 pm

        I figure that NZ has been essentially in recession since 2008 and the only thing that’s kept that from throwing us all into poverty is the housing bubbles and government borrowing. Now that the worlds economy is about to crash again we’re probably fucked.
    • riffer 11.3

      25 August 2015 at 12:10 pm

      All very well, but then we have the same old scenario where Labour + friends have to pick up the pieces and we have to listen to those fools on the right bleating on about how this is their mess. The cycle repeats again. grrrr.
      • maui 11.3.1

        25 August 2015 at 1:05 pm

        But if a left wing Government can’t pull us out of the mire either, because globally things are screwed, then the left will be blamed for everything. The left is the default group to blame and it’s not going to be in an easy position to be in I don’t think.
        • Colonial Viper 11.3.1.1

          25 August 2015 at 1:10 pm

          And Labour is not looking to fundamentally change our economic or financial systems, just tweak them here and there.
    • keyman 11.4

      25 August 2015 at 9:56 pm

      the legs have booted away key just walking gob shite know every word is bull
      • ropata 11.4.1

        25 August 2015 at 11:27 pm

        key = blair

        same charisma, same bullshit, same hubris, same destruction of society to feed his ego

        and when the key-delusion bubble finally bursts the nats will be toxic and unelectable for at least a decade
12. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 12

    25 August 2015 at 11:43 am

    That capitalism is facing a crisis suggests that our economic system is deeply and inherently flawed.

    Or, that it is correcting so as to work exactly as it should.
    • thatguynz 12.1

      25 August 2015 at 11:50 am

      Until TBTF is no longer a “thing” you don’t even have a semblance of capitalism mate 🙂
      • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 12.1.1

        25 August 2015 at 11:57 am

        So, against intervention in the market?

        Me too.
        • thatguynz 12.1.1.1

          25 August 2015 at 12:01 pm

          Certainly not in the way that the US has intervened to date. I’m however not against regulation OF the market which I suspect you probably are 😉
        • vto 12.1.1.2

          25 August 2015 at 12:04 pm

          ha ha ha ha ha

          like letting South Canterbury Finance investors fail

          like letting Rio Tinto shut up shop

          like implementing OBR

          like QE 1, 2, 3 whatever

          like central Christchurch

          like giving irrigation money to farmers

          ha ha ha ha ha

          the right wing are so very confused
          • Clemgeopin 12.1.1.2.1

            25 August 2015 at 12:13 pm

            Like trying to build a bribe sheep farm in the middle of the Sahara!
            • Clemgeopin 12.1.1.2.1.1

              25 August 2015 at 12:34 pm

              Like scaring the pee shit out of worms in the worm farms!
        • Colonial Viper 12.1.1.3

          25 August 2015 at 12:04 pm

          So, against intervention in the market?

          BS – the TBTF banks and central banks intervene in the market every millisecond, and they pay politicians to do so on their behalf as well.
          • The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 12.1.1.3.1

            25 August 2015 at 12:12 pm

            That’s the problem, vto. We don’t have a very right wing government.
            • tracey 12.1.1.3.1.1

              25 August 2015 at 1:20 pm

              when Capitalism breaks or cracks the answer is always

              “Cos we didnt have enough Capitalism”
              • Bob …

                25 August 2015 at 5:35 pm

                The same can be said of Socialism, Marxism, any range of ‘isms’, the reason being, as great as every theory sounds, in the ‘real world’ none of them stand up (including capitalism). If there was a perfect recipe at least one country on earth would have perfected it by now, but there just isn’t.
                • Draco T Bastard …

                  25 August 2015 at 6:20 pm

                  If there was a perfect recipe at least one country on earth would have perfected it by now, but there just isn’t.

                  Really? Wow, we’ve only been doing this civilisation thing for ~5000 years and we already know everything. That’s amazing.
                  • Bob …

                    26 August 2015 at 8:50 am

                    We can put a man on the moon, prove Higgs Boson particles exist, dive to the bottom of the Mariana Trench in a Submarine under >1,000 bar pressure, decode the Human genome, but we can’t figure out a way to sustain one country harmoniously? Yes, that is amazing!
                    • One Anonymous Bloke …

                      26 August 2015 at 9:00 am

                      “harmoniously”

                      Fuck your mother, river crab 😉
                    • Draco T Bastard …

                      26 August 2015 at 10:45 am

                      … but we can’t figure out a way to sustain one country harmoniously?

                      Well, that probably comes back to this delusional idea that we’re all in competition with each other.

                      Oh, wait, that would be due to all the RWNJs wanting to keep capitalism alive despite it’s continued failure.
    • tracey 12.2

      25 August 2015 at 1:19 pm

      correcting is a euphemism for breaking though isn’t it? It’s like Gamesmanship became the word for cheating.
    • Pat 12.3

      25 August 2015 at 2:02 pm

      except that all the worlds major economies have used their ammunition and those pesky crisis just keep coming before we can be resupplied…..damn
13. The Chairman 13

    25 August 2015 at 12:13 pm

    Viewed this interview the other week – worth a look.
    https://youtu.be/_Ic1iD9SNog
    • thatguynz 13.1

      25 August 2015 at 12:19 pm

      While I’m not a fan of Alex Jones, some of his guests are very good. Gerald Celente’s (a regular guest) interview on King World News on 8/8 was enlightening.
      • RC 13.1.1

        26 August 2015 at 3:31 pm

        If we listed all the times that Jones was right with all the times that he was wrong… If you predict bad things across every area imaginable every day for your entire life…at some point you will get something right. What he has got wrong on dozens of occasions should mean that nobody ever listens to a single thing he ever says again. But then…the people who listen to him are the dumbest bunch of, plankton brained, morons that currently live…so…I get it.
    • Clemgeopin 13.2

      25 August 2015 at 12:40 pm

      He even gives the crash warning two weeks before the actual crash and state the almost exact date, 25th of August! (at about 9/10 minutes in). Very impressive!
      • The Chairman 13.2.1

        25 August 2015 at 1:29 pm

        Indeed.
        • tracey 13.2.1.1

          25 August 2015 at 1:31 pm

          Is it a Crash or a crash? Or a Crash or a drop?
          • Clemgeopin 13.2.1.1.1

            25 August 2015 at 1:40 pm

            I think it is a sudden drop (mixed with the usual DC Bounces), causing the start of an ongoing crash.
            Let us see what happens in the next few days, weeks and months.
          • The Chairman 13.2.1.1.2

            25 August 2015 at 2:00 pm

            Signs of a unraveling, Tracey.

            While a crash is ultimately imminent, I can’t put a date on it.
            • tracey 13.2.1.1.2.1

              25 August 2015 at 4:19 pm

              i was just asking cos if what has happened in last few days is a Crash what do we call it if it gets worst? The Second Great depression ? 😉
              • Clemgeopin …

                25 August 2015 at 5:46 pm

                Definitely possible and THAT is the trillion dollar question with an unknown answer.

                I hope it won’t happen…..fingers and toes crossed for everyone’s sake, and quickly touching some imported wooden cheap Hebei furniture from the warehouse, where everyone gets a bargain.
                • Anne …

                  25 August 2015 at 5:58 pm

                  Well, if it is a Crash (with a capital C) we know who to blame eh? The market place economics of the Right?

                  And this comes from a total economic illiterate which is why I usually just read what others have to say on the subject. 😡
            • Mike S 13.2.1.1.2.2

              25 August 2015 at 8:21 pm

              Try September 13/14th.

              Watch this space…
        • b waghorn 13.2.1.2

          25 August 2015 at 1:52 pm

          Is that a yes it is impressive “indeed” or a that’s a bit fishy that he predicted it so accurately”indeed”
          • The Chairman 13.2.1.2.1

            25 August 2015 at 1:56 pm

            Impressive. Good crystal-balling.
      • Excélsior 13.2.2

        26 August 2015 at 1:36 am

        Consider that he predicts the same thing over and over again and has for almost 2 decades then he might be on point this time, right?
        No, stock is already bouncing back.. while China is in freefall despite the actions by the gov to fix the issue. Maybe he meant China.
        • The Chairman 13.2.2.1

          26 August 2015 at 7:48 am

          Regardless of his past performance, he was on point this time. Down to the date, which was impressive.
14. Byrnz 14

    25 August 2015 at 1:21 pm

    Ex-colleague now a ‘trader’ in UK. Said he has done well the last couple of days and high frequency trading has made a killing!
    • tracey 14.1

      25 August 2015 at 1:30 pm

      How exciting. he/she must be. Remind what they produce for society?
      • Molly 14.1.1

        25 August 2015 at 5:10 pm

        Bankers? – apparently they are the proud producers of negative social returns…

        A Bit Rich – NEF publication: Calculating the real value to society of
        different professions

        High-earning investment bankers in the City of London are among the best remunerated people in the economy. But the earnings they command and the profits they make come at a huge cost because of the damaging social effects of the City of London’s financial activities. We found that rather than being ‘wealth creators’, these City bankers are being handsomely rewarded for bringing the global financial system to the brink of collapse. While collecting salaries of between £500,000 and £10 million, leading City bankers to destroy £7 of social value for every pound in value they generate.
        • Ad 14.1.1.1

          26 August 2015 at 9:26 pm

          Good article there.
15. tracey 15

    25 August 2015 at 1:33 pm

    John Key shows incredible insight after the fact:

    “Prime Minister John Key is warning that New Zealand is not immune to the current meltdown on world share markets, but says it is well placed to respond.

    He said he had seen nothing to indicated the country was heading into recession, although economists assessed there was an increased risk of that. But there was room to stimulate the economy through interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank or more spending by the Government.

    “Certainly we are in a much better position, if we had to prime the pump, to do that now.”

    Bill English suggests the surplus may disappear.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/71426556/nz-not-immune-to-world-share-plunge-but-well-placed-john-key

    This Hands off Government is SO clever.
    • Clemgeopin 15.1

      25 August 2015 at 2:02 pm

      “Key says New Zealand is well placed to respond”

      Well placed, my foot! Tell that to the thousands of people going hungry and homeless, thousands of workers on minimum wage, thousands of people out of work, thousands of sick and dying on waiting lists, thousands of people struggling to feed their families, thousands of businesses, students, home owners and farmers deep in debt,…..

      …and our National debt is already over one hundred billion dollars and rapidly rising with a whopping five billion dollars in interest per year and over one hundred and fifty dollars PER SECOND in INTEREST alone !

      http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/newzealand

      Rick star economy working for the stars, with rocks for the rest.
      • tracey 15.1.1

        25 August 2015 at 4:20 pm

        Some Elvis Impersonators are JUST like the real man, and some…

        Aren’t

        None are rockstars
      • Clemgeopin 15.1.2

        25 August 2015 at 4:42 pm

        Whoops! Last line should be:

        ‘Rock star economy working for the stars, with rocks for the rest’.
      • keyman 15.1.3

        25 August 2015 at 10:14 pm

        100 billion is just government debt house hold debt is a basket case there alot figure out there some say 350 billion others reckon it closer to 514 billion
        a debt bomb
        https://youtu.be/GXcLVDhS8fM
        • Clemgeopin 15.1.3.1

          25 August 2015 at 11:01 pm

          What a lovely clip! Quite talented, including the two girls!

          It is interesting that the audience has no hoi polloi or what Key once termed ‘the underclass’ but is made up of the top brass and all the rich and famous!
          Thanks for the clip. I thoroughly enjoyed it!
16. millsy 16

    25 August 2015 at 4:14 pm

    Regardless of what happens, we are screwed.

    If…

    1) Everything turns out OK, we carry on as per normal.

    2) Everything tanks, more austerity and neo liberalism is seen as the answer.
    • Chooky 16.1

      25 August 2015 at 4:52 pm

      3.) We become Chinese….if John Key continues to allow Chinese money to buy up New Zealand assets unrestricted…

      (because Chinese money will be fleeing China and heading for what they perceive as safer investments in Australia and New Zealand)

      …in fact I think Jonkey nactional and his bankster mates will be buying up New Zealand
      • Ben 16.1.1

        25 August 2015 at 5:13 pm

        Like Bill English, Nick Smith and the Auckland Council each owning a 1/3 share in a company buying up state houses. What does Andrew Little have to say about this? Well folks, he is going to make some enquiries! Fit to govern? Nope.
        • Clemgeopin 16.1.1.1

          25 August 2015 at 6:29 pm

          “Like Bill English, Nick Smith and the Auckland Council each owning a 1/3 share in a company buying up state houses”

          What is that about? Got a link?
          • b waghorn 16.1.1.1.1

            25 August 2015 at 7:17 pm

            It came up a while ago I think its because they are the ministers there names are on the title but the don’t actually have a personal interest.
            • Clemgeopin 16.1.1.1.1.1

              25 August 2015 at 7:34 pm

              Ah! Ok. Thanks.
      • Mike S 16.1.2

        25 August 2015 at 8:27 pm

        Interesting that the skyrocketing Auckland housing market (up 24% in one year) apparently isn’t causing any noticeable inflation in New Zealand. To me this would indicate a hell of a lot (certainly more than politicians are saying) of foreign money (and profits going offshore) in the Auckland housing market. Although I’m not exactly an expert by a long shot in such things so someone may like to correct me.. 🙂
        • nadis 16.1.2.1

          25 August 2015 at 8:46 pm

          it just might be because house prices arent included in the official measures of inflation……
          • millsy 16.1.2.1.1

            27 August 2015 at 11:57 pm

            If we included rents and houses prices in inflation, then we would be having it in double digits…
            • nadis 16.1.2.1.1.1

              28 August 2015 at 1:16 pm

              http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/economic_indicators/cpi_inflation/rented-dwellings-in-the-cpi.aspx

              Rent is in the CPI
              New Houses are in the CPI
              Existing house sales are not in the CPI

              Whats your point again?
17. adam 17

    25 August 2015 at 6:12 pm

    It will take an hour of your time. RT the big Picture special – Thom Hartmann with Economics Richard Wolff.

    Great Journalism, explaining economics in everyday language.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=polYrI4Us84
    • Draco T Bastard 17.1

      25 August 2015 at 7:23 pm

      Wolff’s demolishing of Kiwisaver US 401ks at the end of that was brilliant.
      • adam 17.1.1

        25 August 2015 at 8:14 pm

        I was thinking about Kiwisaver when he was talking about the US 401k.
18. maui 18

    25 August 2015 at 7:36 pm

    On the bright side Hosking with a worthless Maserati and bitter and angry at the world at his wealth destruction would be priceless.
    • Mike S 18.1

      25 August 2015 at 8:29 pm

      Worthless Maserati ???
      • Draco T Bastard 18.1.1

        25 August 2015 at 8:55 pm

        Yep. It’s really not worth any more than any other car on the road.
        • Mike S 18.1.1.1

          25 August 2015 at 9:39 pm

          I guess it depends upon what you view as worth. Personally I would rather drive a Maserati than a corolla (i have a corolla) so the maserati is worth far more to me than the corolla. The Maserati is also hand built so is worth more in terms of human labour. If you like to go 0-100 in around 5 secs then a Maserati is worth more to you. The Maserati is even worth more in dollar terms of scrap metal.

          If all you consider as worth in a car is that it gets you from a to b traveling at the legal speed limit and you place no worth in how exciting, comfortable or enjoyable the trip is then yes, all cars that can get you from a to b are probably worth the same to you. I’m guessing you’ve never driven a truly exciting car to drive? I could disregard the money side of things altogether and I know there’s some cars that would still be worth far more to me than others.

          (And I’m not even a full on petrolhead)
          • Draco T Bastard 18.1.1.1.1

            25 August 2015 at 10:11 pm

            I’m guessing you’ve never driven a truly exciting car to drive?

            Oh, I’ve driven some truly exciting cars to drive including an HC Viva ute with a souped out 3l v6, a 1958 Ford Prefect van that was quite capable of lifting its front wheels when you stepped on the gas, Jaguars and BMWs. Then there was my Mini which occasionally didn’t have any brakes – now that was truly exciting.

            The Maserati is also hand built so is worth more in terms of human labour.

            Ah, the conceit and stupidity of the rich. I wouldn’t touch a hand made car if you paid me – the machines can do it better. Handmade is a status symbol of the rich declaring look, I’m so rich I can afford to waste someone’s time and effort to do something truly worthless.

            If all you consider as worth in a car is that it gets you from a to b traveling at the legal speed limit and you place no worth in how exciting, comfortable or enjoyable the trip is then yes, all cars that can get you from a to b are probably worth the same to you.

            Thing is, that truly does describe all cars. Try to make that trip from A to B exciting and the police will want to have a word with you. Been there, done that, grew out of it – especially after spending a few years in jobs that required driving 100+ kilometres every day.

            And, at the end of the day, all cars are uneconomic which makes them worthless no matter how exciting they are.
        • Pat 18.1.1.2

          25 August 2015 at 10:02 pm

          console yourself with his insurance premiums and maintenance costs
          • Tricledrown 18.1.1.2.1

            26 August 2015 at 2:18 am

            Bugger that I’ll just turn up my exquisite stereo.
      • maui 18.1.2

        25 August 2015 at 9:17 pm

        According to some commentators if we’re talking Great Depression depths then you can probably halve it’s current value. With no one having any surplus money to waste on something like a luxury car there is no demand for it. If it gets bad enough that only a few of us can afford to buy petrol at the pump, those people would probably want to be using that petrol for something productive, not a gas guzzling sports car. So yeh it could end up pretty much useless.
        • Mike S 18.1.2.1

          25 August 2015 at 10:20 pm

          When it gets so bad that “only a few of us can afford to buy petrol at the pumps” then they will most likely be the ones who could afford Maseratis in the first place?

          But let’s be realistic, if it gets so bad that a Maserati becomes completely worthless (moneywise) then cars will be the least of our worries because we would likely be in societal collapse scenario and just staying alive would be our main concern. Because even when we no longer get around in petrol powered cars, I would guess that an old petrol powered Maserati will still be worth a few bob as a collectors piece.

          Regardless, I would rather drive a Nismo GTR (real boost) than a maserati (ego boost) any day of the week and if Hoskings ever buys a Tesla S I’ll be gutted.
19. Chooky 19

    25 August 2015 at 8:36 pm

    A recession then?

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.nz/
20. Pat 20

    25 August 2015 at 9:03 pm

    “Mining giants are taking steps to protect themselves from the slump in commodity prices, and fears over China’s economy.

    BHP Billiton announced this morning it will cut its capital expenditure sharply, from $11bn this financial year to $7bn by 2016/17. It acted after seeing underlying profits shrink by 52%, as iron ore, coal, copper and petroleum prices slid.

    The AAP newswire has more details.

    The City likes the news, driving BHP’s shares up over 5% today. But it’s a long-term blow to the communities in places like Australia, where BHP has large operations.”
21. infused 21

    25 August 2015 at 9:24 pm

    Read http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/aug/25/china-financial-crisis-from-peak-to-black-monday

    and

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/03/china-stock-markets-volatility-conspiracy-manipulation

    Borrowing to invest is not a good idea. Kind of like borrowing for the Cullin Fund.

    OH BUT THOSE GAINZ!!1

    Yeah, clearly.
    • Colonial Viper 21.1

      25 August 2015 at 10:17 pm

      Borrowing to invest is not a good idea. Kind of like borrowing for the Cullin Fund.

      Pffft.

      Like taking out a mortgage for an Auckland house. No one has made money doing that, right?

      The whole system is deliberately geared to encourage maximum leverage. You know that. Stop acting dumb.
    • Tricledrown 21.2

      26 August 2015 at 2:14 am

      Confused.like borrowing to invest in Dairy farms.
      Borrowing to invest in motorways.
      Borrowing to invest in tax bribes.
      Pork barrel politics same like Greece.
22. The Chairman 22

    26 August 2015 at 9:12 am

    Worth a look.

    https://youtu.be/mzp7NiI0SUU
23. sirpat 23

    26 August 2015 at 4:54 pm

    well with all that is said………….100billion debt and rising AND a rockstar economy and because I believe that no matter who is in power its too late to recapture some of the utopia that NZ was… all I can say is………cultivate your neighbours……cultivate good friends and get shitloads of seed stock in so you have something to cultivate with!!!!

• Comments are now closed

• Log in
• Donate
• Contribute post

• Articles RSS