Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, September 19th, 2014 - 98 comments
Categories: conservative party, david cunliffe, election 2014, greens, internet mana party, john key, labour, national, newspapers, polls - Tags:
In the past 12 hours or so three final polls have been released and they all point to the election going down to the wire.
The comparable figures in these polls last election were CB 50%, HD 50.9% and the last Fairfax poll I can find before the election was 54%. Remember National’s actual result was 47.3%. To add to this the momentum is in the wrong way and National is clearly declining. I would not be surprised if National ends up in the very low 40s.
Labour’s results appear to be stable being 25%, 25.9% and 26.1% respectively. Results last time were 26%, 28% and 28% which were all close to Labour’s final result but on a low turnout.
The Greens are 12%, 11.4% and 12%. New Zealand First is comfortably above 5% in all polls and the Conservatives are below 5% in all polls. Internet Mana is struggling. Dotcom’s money may have been a curse rather than a benefit.
The Herald commentary by Audrey Young really outdid itself for its obsequious nature. A marginal change in the voting trend well within the margin of error for National during the period polled has caused Audrey to claim that Key has received a last minute bump in the poll. You have to read down to the end to realise that National was actually down and Labour up although again within the margin of error.
My prediction is that Labour will get up to about 30%, the Greens will hold 12%, National will be equal pegging, the Conservatives will not make the threshold and it will be all up to Winston who is the next Prime Minister. This election is going to be decided vote by vote.
And my pick of individual seats to watch with some predictions: