Triangulating climate change

There were some interesting and concerning developments in relation to climate change recently.

In the morning the Herald reported that the Government was planning on an ambitious change to transport infrastructure priorities with climate change being the primary concern.

From Thomas Coughlan:

Ministers are finalising a new transport strategy that will, for the first time, make climate change the top priority when it comes to deciding how transport funding gets invested.

The plan, which will go out for consultation this year, will dictate where tens of billions of dollars of transport funding will be spent in the next three years and promises a stark pivot towards public transport and away from emissions-intensive investments, like new highways.

Transport Minister Michael Wood has proposed changes to the way $2b of maintenance money is spent each year, which could mean swapping car parks for new bus lanes and cycleways – paid for with the money used to fix potholes, according to a briefing released to the Herald under the Official Information Act.

An overarching goal of the plan will be to reduce the amount of driving and thereby emissions – officials say projects that will increase emissions will not necessarily be axed, but face a “high threshold” to get funding.

The changes may come at a cost. Wood told the Herald, that after being frozen for three years, increases in fuel taxes and road user charges are once again on the table although no decision had been made about whether to increase them yet.

The document being referred to is the Government Policy Statement on Land Transport.  It is reviewed every three years and the next review is due to occur in 2024.  The document drives how the National Land Transport Fund is used.

Previous versions are generally a tweak of their predecessor.  But it looks like the latest one was going to be radically different and highlight the sort of change required if we are going to meet our greenhouse gas emission goals.

Alas by yesterday afternoon this appeared to be nothing more than a fond wish.  Again from Thomas Coughlan at the Herald:

The Government is walking back aspects of its land transport plan, after they were published by the Herald this morning.

The Herald revealed Transport Minister Michael Wood and transport officials were putting together a plan that would place emissions reduction as a top priority of the transport plan, known as a Government Policy Statement on land transport or GPS.

The plan included changing the way road maintenance funding is used, putting it towards cycleways and bus lanes as well as just fixing roads.

But that has changed, with Wood now promising an “emergency-style” plan that responds to the maintenance needs of Cyclone Gabrielle.

“The indicative transport priorities signed off by Cabinet last year will change in the wake of Cyclone Gabrielle,” Wood said.

“We are now working on an emergency-style GPS that will focus on the huge task of reconstruction of roads and bridges washed out by the cyclone and flooding, as well as building greater resilience so our transport network can better withstand the increasing frequency of extreme weather events like we have seen this year.

“No final decisions, including changes to fuel excise duty, have been made as we are still working through the full extent of the damage inflicted by Gabrielle,” he said.

The change appears to have come from the top.  From Radio New Zealand:

Asked about [a fuel tax increase] at today’s post-Cabinet media conference, Hipkins hosed down the suggestion.

“You will see that my track record here is to reduce taxes on fuel, particularly at a time when fuel prices are otherwise higher than they’ve been previously. I don’t intend to increase them at a time when we are actually trying to decrease them.”

Hipkins said “a lot had changed” in the last few months that would have a bearing on the final GPS.

“It will change from what was previously consulted on. Clearly, there’s been a change in leadership of the Government but also we’ve dealt with an event that is going to have a significant impact on transport infrastructure and where we have to prioritise.”

Then this morning Hipkins reiterated the change by saying that Cyclone Gabrielle had changed everything and the Government had to focus on the repair job.  Cyclone Gabrielle should have changed everything.  It should have shown us that we have to accelerate measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, not delay them.

If climate change is no longer considered one of the greatest challenges of our time then I for one would respectfully disagree.

The thing about the recent storms is that it is very likely that they will be repeated and repeated as the atmosphere warms up and the amount of water that it can absorb increases.

The Government’s goals under the Emissions Target Plan include reducing total kilometres travelled by the light fleet by 20 per cent by 2035 through improved urban form and providing better travel options.  To achieve this will require significant investment in public transport and cycleways, the sorts of investment that Wood was talking about.  Incremental change will not do it.

The afternoon walk back may have been about tone rather than substance but this is not helpful.  Seeking out votes from those who are still not convinced that climate change is an extraordinarily important issue is not reassuring to the rest of us.

If ever we needed strong principled leadership on the issue it is now.

Labour should not be competing with National for the votes of those not convinced we are in a crisis.  It should be leading on this issue.

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