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Trump scooped up the white vote that Democrats abandoned

Written By: - Date published: 12:05 pm, November 11th, 2016 - 83 comments
Categories: democratic participation, International, Media, political alternatives, political parties, Politics, polls, uncategorized, us politics - Tags:

How did Trump smash straight through Hillary’s famous “blue wall”.

He did so in many ways, but a major one was by realising that one in three American voters are white non college graduates. And that the Democratic Party and left leaning liberals had long taken this demographic for granted while studiously ignoring (or even outright dismissing) their growing economic and personal financial concerns. donald-trump-and-barack-obama

What was also of enormous help to Trump was the Democrat’s truly weak choice of candidate: Hillary Clinton. In many ways 2016 was more to do with the fact that Clinton lost the election by being unable to hold together the “Obama coalition” of voters, than by Trump winning the election.

She did 5% & 6% worse respectively with African Americans and Latino voters compared to Obama, for instance.

Revelations about how the DNC had treated Bernie Sanders may also have hurt her with millenials aged 18-29, who in this graphic from the Telegraph, decided that they were a full six points less enthusiastic about her than about Barack Obama in 2012.

obama-clinton-vote

Other Clinton supporters thought that her status as the first female Presidential candidate in the history of the United States would robustly propel her to victory, with support from women. Some believed that women were the demographic that was going to decide this election.

And in a way, they were right – but not in the way they may have meant. While Clinton clearly won the female vote overall (albeit with a 1% drop from Obama 2012), non-college graduate white women broke for Trump by 28 points. Trump garnered a massive 62% of their vote.

But that’s nothing compared to non-college educated white men, who broke for Trump by an astounding 49 points; he gained 72% of their vote to Hillary Clinton’s 23%. Trump’s lead amongst white men easily surpassed Ronald Reagan’s previous record of 38 points.

These particular people, men and women, have been the Democrat’s mid-west core voter base of factory workers, auto industry employees, labourers, small store owners, mechanics and tradesmen since the days of the Great Depression. Yes, it’s been gradually happening for years, but one could conclude that they’ve fully left the Democratic Party now that they have found a vaguely palatable alternative. (Or maybe it was the Party that left them.)

And so they’ve joined Trump’s new Republican-shaded movement.

These people pushed Trump to victory in states where Republicans have not had a single victory for more than 20 or 30 years. Pennsylvania. Michigan. Wisconsin. The long term impact of this fundamental partisan change would be hard to over state.

The Clinton campaign’s hubris in taking Wisconsin for granted even led them to totally ignore the state in terms of campaign rallies by the Clintons, and by Barack Obama until it was far too late.

Of the Wisconsin race for instance, USA Today said:

In Wisconsin, Trump got roughly the same number of votes — 1.4 million — that Romney got while losing the state in 2012. The key was that Clinton got almost a quarter-million fewer votes than Obama, paving the way for Trump victory in a race where turnout lagged behind the previous four presidential races in the state.

Trump also showed that continuous MSM sneering and labelling of him as a racist, xenophobe, bigot etc. did not in fact discourage ethnic minorities to vote for him (as compared to the low Republican norm that is).

Trump maintained, or even slightly improved, his vote amongst Latinos and blacks when compared to Romney, gaining 29% and 8% of those voting blocks respectively.

In summary this piece posted on Real Clear Politics says it all: Donald Trump stole the Democrat’s base right from under their noses.

What was going on was that Donald Trump was stealing the Democratic Party’s base from right under their noses.

For as long as I’ve been following politics, that base was the blue-collar class.

The Democrats were the party of the working man.

The Republicans were the party of the bosses.

Then along  comes this guy who’s been a boss his whole life – but decides to make a blatant pitch for the working man’s vote.

And the Democrats fail to even notice.

My sense is, many of these predominantly white blue collar and lower middle class voters took years to leave the Democratic Party after giving it chance after chance after chance.

And most will not be returning any time soon.

(NB I will be moderating comments to this post hard for personal abuse, name calling and the like).

 

83 comments on “Trump scooped up the white vote that Democrats abandoned”

  1. Michael 1

    Good analysis. I wonder if there is any other country in the world where politicians branding themselves as champions of the proletariat similarly abandoned their base to the depredations of any passing fascist?

    • aerobubble 1.1

      …passing fascist… Trump is not even a true fascist.

      [No more abusive name calling and labelling please. If you want to make a point about Trump make an argument, thanks. CV]

  2. chris73 2

    Sound logic

    • aerobubble 2.1

      Its a common theme surely, even the left do it, fit their choices to their prescribed biases rather than listen to the prevailing wind. Trump did, Deomcrats ignored the Sanders embrace of the left behind movement.

      Of coure students, millenniuals, indebt working the system are angry against Trump, people are always angry when their effort at status aquistion is in danger, the ability to sit with the adults having worked for everything. Turning back the clock to an America that people could succeed easier, that hurts the brownie classes.

  3. save nz 3

    I just hope Labour and Greens wake up to the idea of the 65% Pakeha home owning voters in NZ, so we don’t have another upset like last election.

    • AmaKiwi 3.1

      The Democrats did not abandon white male voters. BOTH parties abandoned the rust belt cities in favor of the densely populated, wealthy coastal metropolises.

      I grew up in the kind of small city that would vote overwhelmingly for a Donald Trump. Its major employer left town 40 years ago and was never replaced. It has been dying ever since. Neither major party has done anything to help it develop a new economic purpose.

      Winston Peters knows. That’s why he has been working hard to win the provinces. I think National is in for a shock as they lose major support to NZ First in the heartland they assumed is blue.

    • Wayne 3.2

      It was not an upset victory in 2014. It was well predicted. For a whole variety of reasons National has twice the support of Labour.

      One of those reasons is the constant over the top denigration of John Key. Centre Voters just think the left has lost connection with reality when you do that. An another example would be the constant reference to the NZ “neo-liberal nightmare”. People just think that sort of criticism is ridiculous.

      Have a look at the “right direction/wrong direction” polls if you want confirmation of looking like being out of touch. In the US that poll has been consistently wrong direction, but in NZ it is consistently right direction.

      Wrong direction usually means a change of govt and right direction usually means no change. People will change if the alternative looks plausible, but not if they look like they don’t understand their own country.

      • KJT 3.2.1

        National has to lie and cheat to convince New Zeaanders they are “heading in the right direction”.

        Does that make you feel good.

        1 hour a week is a new job. FFS.

        Wait until business peoiple and Farmers realise that National is fucking them over.

  4. Bill 4

    All well and good except – if Sanders had been the Democratic nominee, I’m pretty sure many of those who you’re arguing ‘left the Democrats’ would have voted for Sanders and not Trump.

    The election was won by tapping into a widespread and understandable anti-establishment sentiment. Nothing else. That Donald Trump – a grotesque clown of a human being – pulled off a Presidency by speaking to that sentiment just underscores how deep that sentiment runs.

    I’d contend that far from having “joined Trump’s new Republican-shaded movement”, swathes of voter simply took the option (akin to BREXIT and other votes) to vote for anything but….

    What happens next, as it dawns on many that Trump will not deliver a smidgen of what he promised and that he’s a charlatan straight out from the establishment he claims to oppose… that’s what matters.

    Trump is no great tactician or…well, anything at all really. He was just the incidental recipient of mass disillusionment and anger.

    • ropata 4.1

      If Sanders has been the Democrat pick, it’s doubtful that the typical Hillary voter (middle class college educated liberals) would have transferred their vote to an avowed socialist,

    • Colonial Viper 4.2

      All well and good except – if Sanders had been the Democratic nominee, I’m pretty sure many of those who you’re arguing ‘left the Democrats’ would have voted for Sanders and not Trump.

      Yes, that could all have happened.

      In that parallel universe where the Democratic Party was still the Democratic Party of FDR. And not the corrupt corporate machine of the Clintons.

      But of course it’s not, and Hillary Clinton lost states which have been reliably blue since the Ronald Reagan years.

      What happens next, as it dawns on many that Trump will not deliver a smidgen of what he promised and that he’s a charlatan straight out from the establishment he claims to oppose… that’s what matters.

      He’s just the President. He doesn’t control the RNC. He doesn’t control the Senate. He doesn’t control the Congress. Many in the Republican establishment can still barely tolerate him. President Bush did not campaign with him even once. He has a massive uphill fight to get anything done against the stagnant inertia that is Washington DC.

      But I’ll tell you what. He just pulled off the impossible. Again. I thought he could, and he did. So now I’m looking forward to him pulling off the next impossible thing.

      • jcuknz 4.2.1

        I am not sure who would/will have the toughest job Clinton fighting with republicans in both houses, or Trump against the same group who mainly cannot stand him ?

        • jcuknz 4.2.1.1

          We saw what happened in the past eight years when a studious president prefered to talk during the first years and the completely lost it for the remainder of his terms. It will be interesting to see what happens and I do not see improvements until the DNC wins both houses again.

    • ropata 4.3

      The graphic attached to this shows how the Dems screwed up, they could have selected someone more acceptable like Joe Biden, but they chose the Wall St establishment stooge because it was “her turn”. Hubris.

      It was a Clinton collapse rather than a Trump insurgency, via @yanagiz pic.twitter.com/kHVVCVcOZD— Stig Ørskov (@orskov) November 10, 2016

      • Colonial Viper 4.3.1

        they could have selected someone more acceptable like Joe Biden

        And the thing is, Trump saw a real opportunity to remake the entire base of the Republican party. Krauthammer has described Trump’s win as an “ideological revolution”.

        Several House Republicans owe their election day wins to Trump.

        The Democrats are a long long way from renewing their philosophy and their ideology.

    • ropata 4.4

      Bill said:

      Trump is no great tactician or…well, anything at all really. He was just the incidental recipient of mass disillusionment and anger.

      Agreed. But that’s what worries me — he appeals to the darker side of the American psyche.

      • WILD KATIPO 4.4.1

        ”he appeals to the darker side of the American psyche.”

        Well all I can say is there must be an awful lot of Americans with ‘dark psyche’s ‘running around these days , – maybe it has more to do with mass job losses, unaffordable health – and something to do with that ‘dark psyche’of thier that didnt want to be a party to THIS :

        https://www.rt.com/viral/365783-assange-pilger-wikileaks-election/

      • pat 4.4.2

        “Agreed. But that’s what worries me — he appeals to the darker side of the American psyche.”

        Don’t know about that so much….he certainly appealed to a widely held (wider than I thought) demand for change.

        CVs analysis shows how and where (and give him his due, he picked it in the face of fierce criticism) and change was the why….Hilary was the antithesis.
        That there were elements of racism and misogyny is undoubtably true as it always has been, but that hasn’t created a result like this.

  5. save nz 5

    The issues are identity not ethnicity. Western Middle class whether white, black, Asian, men or women are losing their identity when they lose their ability to have a stable job, earn a comfortable living, be able to live in a stable house and be able to afford to educate their kids. That is slipping away in the Western world in places like the UK and USA and voters are reacting to it and the so called left are either blind to it or inexplicable try to destroy it.

    In NZ some people’s houses are starting to earn more than their job and there has a safety net. But that has been used badly by the left to try to disrupt that (more taxes, drop prices) and therefore has pushed those voters away as well as ridiculing them and blaming them for other social issues (homelessness, inequality etc) while at the same time seemingly denying that record world immigration in NZ and free trade has anything to do with homelessness and insecure and/or poorly paid jobs.

    Trump managed to push a message more important than ethnicity and gender that he could somehow get back jobs, dignity and insecurity so that even if he is a sexist racist guy he was still better. Even if they didn’t believe he could do it, maybe it was refreshing some politician actually understood and articulated very clearly NASDA etc instead of denying that was a problem or not bothering because some analysts told Clinton those white/black trash people don’t matter (Wisconsin).

    • ropata 5.1

      I dunno if the Trump voters even noticed a single thing that fat idiot said.

      There was a massive resentment against Hillary, also Fox News and the Religious Right absolutely vilified her. She was planning to legalise late term abortion. She was going to stack the Supreme Court with liberal judges. She was going to ram through the TPPA. She was going to promote environmental policies that might cost jobs. She wasn’t going to do anything about Wall St corporations that screwed over the Rust Belt states. She wasn’t going to stop immigration and FTA’s from taking American jobs. She was promoting wars with Russia and extrajudicial killing (ie. committing mass murder by drone) on people like Assange. She was gonna take our Guns!!!

      [I appreciate the contribution of your comments, ropata, but any more personal abuse against Trump like your fat idiot comment, and you will be banned off this post. CV]

    • Rob 5.2

      Wow Save NZ , I think your first paragraph is spot on. Thats really smart observation.

      • save nz 5.2.1

        Thanks Rob. I really think ethnicity, gender, class, location (urban vs rural), workers vs business owners and religion is NOT the main factors at play. The Brexit/ Trump is about people wanting to maintain their identity with dignity and be accepted and heard.

        In the absence of that and after decades of neglect, they have got to the point of a fuck you vote to the establishment, that is supposed to support them but instead just seems to want to support itself, in particular to the so called left parties that used to care about people rather than profit, but now have their heads up their asses and giving each other turns at power and being the Idiot Yet Intellectual class. (government, media).

        Even worse as soon as the left do get an authentic candidate like Sanders they then do their best to destroy them, rather than harness their mana and understand why millions are turning up to their rallies.

        Yes the right are frightening, but the left have been for decades being told to change with a kick up the butt or abstainance by voters but they still continue their IYI antics unchecked.

  6. Draco T Bastard 6

    Trade, Not Immigrants, May Have Been Key Motivator of Donald Trump’s Voters

    Perhaps more telling, among Trump voters specifically, the economy was cited as the top issue far more often—46% of the time—than was immigration, which was named by just 17%. A far larger share of Trump voters—57%—said they think trade takes away jobs.

    That’s the headline and general focus of the article this bit which is, IMO, far more important:

    And beyond such choices on issues, the loudest cry from Trump voters actually was the simplest one: They want “change.” Fully 70% of Trump voters said bringing change was a more important matter in their choice than was picking a candidate with the right experience or good judgment, or one who “cares about people like me.”

    Yep, 70% simply wanted change.

    The majority of people know that the present system doesn’t work and yet the parties of the Left are coming out and telling us that we simply need more of the same. Trump won because he promised to break the system.

    • Colonial Viper 6.1

      It was a change election, and Democrats idiotically chose the most status quo candidate possible bar none.

      • ropata 6.1.1

        Agreed, especially as Obama’s soaring rhetoric promising Hope and Change turned into smoke and mirrors. Trump can barely string a sentence together, but he represented the best chance of *actual* change.

        The American people have been conned again, this time by the greatest scammer of our generation. Trump cannot even lie in bed straight, his record speaks for itself. His sordid record of ripping people off, misogyny and dishonesty gives John Key something to aim fir I guess…

        [CV: This is not Trump abuse. It is criticism. OK?]

        [All good, and as I said, your contribution and perspective is very much appreciated – CV]

      • Wayne 6.1.2

        “The Democrats” being the millions of primary voters. She wasn’t imposed on Democrat voters. They chose her over the alternatives.

        In my view she would be the President today, but for Comey’s intervention 10 days out. It was enough to put some swing voters into the Trump camp. And it only needed to be a few hundred thousand voters.

    • AmaKiwi 6.2

      Draco, two interesting points:

      1. Bill Clinton won the presidency with this simple sentence, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

      2. So much of the American political sound and fury has ZERO economic impact: abortion, gun control, LGBT rights.

      • Draco T Bastard 6.2.1

        I’m pretty sure that you’ll find that those things do have economic impact:

        Gun control may reduce the number of guns sold
        Abortion will reduce population growth and thus reduce demand for products
        LGBT rights impact how or even if some people will go to work, or the type of work that they will do due to discrimination.

        And it was largely the economy again. More and more people were worse off under the status quo and Clinton was a vote for the status quo which people didn’t want.

  7. aerobubble 7

    Abortion. For decades now the right have been anti-choice, pressuring for a womens right to choose be denied. God can miscarry but women cant. Now some say Donald ‘read my lips’ Trump is going to promise the new scrotus will be anti-choice. what and lose the angry no abortion button. The giant distraction that keeps the givt from dealing with the left behind. Trump Repubilicism its going to change Republicism… ..or not. 2020

    • Colonial Viper 7.1

      During the campaign Trump already issued a short list of conservative justices that he would select for the Supreme Court from.

      • aerobubble 7.1.1

        Big egos like to be their own man, look back at who appointed liberal justices. When a justice get hired its a unknown. And then its was Scalia whose gone…

        Sorry but nobody but a conservative is getting in, but its meaningless, or better, they might go liberal.

        • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1

          Correct. It’s a life time appointment. Past performance does not always guarantee future performance.

  8. Henry Filth 8

    In the past century, when has a Democrat president ever been followed by a Democrat president?

    • Craig H 8.1

      FDR – Truman.

    • AmaKiwi 8.2

      @ Henry Filth

      Truman was elected FDR.
      LBJ was elected after JFK.

      Carter, Clinton, and Obama were followed by Republicans so the answer is 40% of the time a democrat president was followed by another democrat.

      For republicans, the score is 0%.

      Ike followed by JFK, Nixon followed by Carter, Bush 1 followed by Clinton, Bush 2 followed by Obama.

  9. Peter 9

    ( but one could conclude that they’ve fully left the Democratic Party now that they have found a vaguely palatable alternative. (Or maybe it was the Party that left them.)

    It’s the same here and in the UK the Labour party left us, and that’s why I haven’t voted Labour since 1984 and I so wish I could.

  10. Ad 10

    The “Small City or Rural Areas” shift is by a long way the most important shift according to your graphs.

    That plus non-college-educated white men.

    I would personally hope quick demographic shifts against white men make this election the last time this kind of result happens. I like the Dems’ chances in Arizona, Texas and other sunbelt states next time. True that organising unqualified white rural men with such accord is an impressive political feat.

    I’m also not convinced that has much relevance to New Zealand or to our most important partner Australia; party allegiances and preferences are deeper and stronger. They already have all the dumb white men they can handle voting for them.

    You’re certainly right that it’s hard to have too much sympathy for Clinton. But at least we don’t have to worry about the “Deep State” having its finger on the scales against Trump. The FBI were clearly a powerful factor in late-deciding votes.

    Because the results was very close – and a loss after 8 years pretty usual – I don’t see a major change of direction is required of the Democrats over this loss.

    • Colonial Viper 10.1

      I hope the Democrats don’t change, because that will keep them out of power in most or all American branches of power.

      Also if Trump is smart, he will follow through on his promises to help blacks and Latinos in the inner cities and in run down parts of America.

      If he does that, a Latino vote of 40% and a black vote of 15% may be possible.

      BTW the BREXIT trend is global. If the left cannot respond to it, the right will.

      • Paul 10.1.1

        The left should listen to this.

      • Ad 10.1.2

        There’s no need to panic about either BREXIT or Trump. Both results were extremely close, and over-reacting is the worst response.
        Sure, there’s no perpetual modernist or late- modernist or high-statist trajectory. But we knew that.

        It regathers.

        Global trade isn’t going to stop globalising. It’s going to accelerate.

        Global climate change agreements may or may not be slightly less powerful. They will continue.

        Global Islamist extremism will still exist. It will be less and less powerful.

        Moral liberalism will take more hits, but will continue its expansion. The non-MSM media’s globalising expansion will allow nothing less.

        To me the changes worth noting are that Indonesia and India have controlled extremism, stayed democratic, and thrived. US same. China continues to get richer and richer, and to expand.

        I just don’t see Trump as a crisis other than for a very narrow class of hyper-liberal and super-educated elites. BAU.

        • Colonial Viper 10.1.2.1

          Global trade isn’t going to stop globalising. It’s going to accelerate.

          No, it’s reached its high water mark. Borders and barriers are going up as we speak. Schengen is gone. If Trump does what he says, he will work with Russia to help Syria strengthen the integrity of its borders.

          Not to mention that it is the end of the fossil fuel age. Within the next 30 years.

          If the Left don’t listen, then the Left will be left behind. The electorate is speaking.

          • Ad 10.1.2.1.1

            Tourism and flights globally through the roof.

            Facebook and Baidu same.

            Global poverty down all over the show.

            Global growth steady and doing fine.

            Oil exploration dead, non-carbon generation booming, economic dematerialisation into data massive.

            Trump is a retrograde blip. Old “low information” whites are just not a futures market bet.

            • Colonial Viper 10.1.2.1.1.1

              The number of bacteria in a petri dish climb the fastest just before they strangle themselves and all die off.

              Old “low information” whites are just not a futures market bet.

              Is that why the liberal lefties, DC establishment and corporate MSM got utterly blindsided.

              Either the left learns or it will be left behind.

        • KJT 10.1.2.2

          You obvious were asleep when the Indonesian Governments were murdering millions. But that is fine because they support US capitalism.

        • Lanthanide 10.1.2.3

          “I just don’t see Trump as a crisis other than for a very narrow class of hyper-liberal and super-educated elites. BAU.”

          If he can repeal Roe v Wade, and overturn marriage equality, then you better be eating some crow.

          • Lanthanide 10.1.2.3.1

            Can’t seem to edit.

            Similarly, the repeal of the Affordable Care Act likely will cost some people their lives.

            So, pretty much a crisis for those people.

            • Colonial Viper 10.1.2.3.1.1

              Republicans will have to find a way to provide healthcare for those 20M Americans.

      • WILD KATIPO 10.1.3

        ” BTW the BREXIT trend is global. If the left cannot respond to it, the right will.”

        Lifes a scream at times , honestly ,… who would have thought ?…

        But I would go further to say it doesn’t matter if its Left or if its Right , … if its got the peoples best interests at heart , any political party from which ever persuasion can win.

        The difference is if that same party entertains globalism ,.. then in time, given the ascension of the right leader to oppose it , … that same party will falter through mass popular discontent.

  11. Paul 11

    The left should listen to this.

  12. fisiani 12

    The Left in the USA supported the champion of Wall Street and the “champion ” of the people gained the Left vote.
    In NZ 2017 who will be the champion of the the stockbrokers and who will be the champion of the people.
    I do not see Little as fighting the stockbrokers.

  13. mickysavage 13

    With the greatest of respect I disagree. Turnout was down. Clinton failed to inspire. More people voting would have seen her over the line. Or an authentic candidate such as Bernie.

    • ianmac 13.1

      Exactly micky. Clinton dropped about 6 million votes where Trump much the same as in 2012. Those Democrats who didn’t vote this time created the gap. Incredible seeing the huge money/organisation that the Democrats used compared to the minimal Trump didn’t inspire. Many may have been the peeved Burney Sanders tribe.

      • pat 13.1.1

        the reduced turnout can’t be used an excuse, convenient as it would be for the DP….it was their ineptitude at every stage of the campaign and for the past decade that was their undoing. Shades of “change the leader and everything will come right” in that thinking

      • Colonial Viper 13.1.2

        This is the classic blame the voter mentality.

        If the Democratic Party does not listen and learn, it will lose over and over again.

    • fisiani 13.2

      Who do reckon is the equivalent of Bernie in NZ? Metiria?

    • Colonial Viper 13.3

      With the greatest of respect I disagree. Turnout was down. Clinton failed to inspire.

      Yes, turnout was distinctly down. Turnout always goes down when the campaign is so very negative and nasty.

      Hence the analysis has to be that it was Clinton’s election to lose, and lose it she did.

      With the help of the corporate MSM which demonised Trump 24/7 for weeks and weeks and weeks, with every personal and character attack possible.

      On the other side of the coin, Trump and his team ran an astonishing insurgency campaign. To win states which have been blue Democratic for the last 30 years is quite some feat.

      And not just some statistical accident. Michigan. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin for goodness sake.

      But more to the point – the DNC knew Hillary Clinton’s massive unfavourable ratings before she was selected to be their nominee. Nevertheless they pulled every string they could to ensure that she would get the role.

      And they got their just desserts from the electorate.

      Now, watch out for the Democratic circular firing squad locking and loading. The Greens and Jill Stein will be blamed. The Libertarians will be blamed. White supremacists will be blamed. Bernie Sanders will be blamed.

      • Richard McGrath 13.3.1

        CV, I salute you sir, your analysis has been spot on throughout this campaign, as was Michael Moore’s. You have both earned my grudging respect.

      • Richard McGrath 13.3.2

        “Now, watch out for the Democratic circular firing squad locking and loading. The Greens and Jill Stein will be blamed. The Libertarians will be blamed. White supremacists will be blamed. Bernie Sanders will be blamed.”

        You forgot global warming.

      • mickysavage 13.3.3

        So if the Democrats ran Sanders as their candidate?

        • Colonial Viper 13.3.3.1

          The organisation wasn’t capable of accepting Sanders as its Leader, just as NZ Labour was not capable of accepting Cunliffe as its Leader. Each organisation’s inbuilt immune system prevented and precluded any scenario where such a candidate could be successful.

  14. Richard McGrath 14

    Trump brought the “Reagan Democrats” back out to vote – perhaps the “Waitakere Men” of the United States.

    Hot off the press today: you just have to feel for little Generation Snowflake, the poor darlings are having cry-ins and being comforted with tissues, hot chocolate, toy dogs and Play-Do. These are not primary school kids, these are university students in liberal arts colleges. FFS.

    http://bernardgoldberg.com/college-students-have-meltdown-over-trump-victory-colleges-offer-tissues-and-hot-cocoa/

  15. Richard McGrath 15

    Hey I wonder whether how many white voters were scooped up into Clinton’s camp by the lyrics of one of her buddies, Jay-Z:

    “If you feeling like a pimp nigga, go and brush your shoulders off
    Ladies is pimps too, go and brush your shoulders off
    Niggas is crazy baby, don’t forget that boy told you
    Get, that, dirt off your shoulder

    I probably owe it to you all, proud to be locked by the force
    Trying to hustle some things, that go with the Porsche
    Feeling no remorse, feeling like my hand was forced
    Middle finger to the law, nigga griping my balls
    All the ladies they love me…”

    The N word is OK to use if you spell it with an ‘a’ and your skin is dark? Would it have been acceptable for a Trump supporter from the entertainment industry to rant about ‘niggas’?

    • Colonial Viper 15.1

      Trump pointed out Michelle Obama’s hypocrisy as a parent. Apparently Trump’s language was too obscene for her children. But no complaints about Jay Z or Rick Ross being invited to the White House or singing for Clinton.

  16. Esoteric Pineapples 16

    I don’t think there has been enough of a recognition of the part played by religion, particularly abortion in the election. I think the result was a big push back against secularism.

    • Colonial Viper 16.1

      A push back against a fundamentalist secularism evangelised by a liberal intellectual/academic class.

  17. Kevin 17

    Excellent post CV. On the money.

  18. North 18

    You’re not quite off my “Bastards I Have Known” list yet CV but I do appreciate your post.

    It gives us all a chance to consider the puzzle anew, having the benefit of the results. The knowledge that Trump is President Trump…….with a House and a Senate. (I think?)

    Trump getting elected is far much more for America and the World than simply Trump getting elected. So maybe the march has started and you were an early sign-up CV ?……said with smile.

    • Colonial Viper 18.1

      Cheers, North, appreciated. It is a puzzle. The “left” IMO must learn and listen to ascertain where the future is headed. The political continuum no longer goes two dimensionally from left to right.

      The House and Senate is Republican, yes. We will see if Trump as an outsider can overcome the status quo Republicanism in that membership in order to accomplish a different agenda.

      A tall order.

  19. Jenny 19

    Good guys finish last.

    Politics is all about pressure. How to apply it. How to resist it.

    Trump knows this Bernie doesn’t. And so was sucker punched by the establishment.

    When Trump said, “If I lose it will because the system is rigged”. He was tapping into a deep truth, because it is. The system is rigged in the establishment’s favour. Establishment candidates are favoured, by gaming the system, slicing and dicing and manipulating the electorate.

    The system is rigged in the establishment’s favour.

    Trump’s brillliance in stating this fact was in fact calling the establishment’s bluff.

    Sander’s failing was not calling it when he should, when he had the chance to.

    The dance between leadership and movement is a subtle one.

    No leader has succeeded against the establishment with out a movement behind them. Bernie had that movement but he never used it.
    No movement has succeeded when their leadership orders them to retreat.
    Sanders had promised his supporters that he would to take his fight for the Democratic presidential candidacy to the floor of the DP convention and from there calling out the Super Delegates bluff, lay the blame for choosing an establishment candidate that all polls at the time showed that such a candidate would have trouble beating Trump where Sanders would beat him hands down, squarely in their laps. With tens of thousands of his supporters behind him it would be a pressure that would be hard to resist.

    Bernie had a movement behind him, so did Trump. When Trump said if I lose it will because the system is rigged, the establishment’s game was up and they knew it. Because they knew he had a movement behind him to back him up.

    All politics is pressure. Votes on paper are only, at best, a formal recognition of the shifting balance of forces in society.

    Bernie failed at applying pressure when he should have.

    After a gentlmanly stroll across the White House lawn and a private “friendly chat” with President Obama, Bernie Sanders agreed to back down on his promise to his followers to take his campaign for the nomination to the Democratic Party Convention.

    Bernie failed at resisting pressure when he should have.

    The other thing that Trump did that establishment candidates like Hilary Cllinton can’t or can’t talk about, is the issues, unemployment, inequality, lack of opportunity, the power of Wall Street etc. Of course Trump wove it all into his Right Wing narrative. It is Wall Street and Washington, it is corporate friendly trade deals, it is expensive and false climate change road blocks, it is blacks, it is the poor, it is Moslems, it is immigrants.

    Bernie too, talked of the issues, and of course he also had a coherant narrative, one diametrically opposed to Trump’s. But unfortunately the electorate never given the chance to hear it.

    Establishment candidates like Clinton don’t have an anti-establishment narrative, or in fact any other narrative, (other than business as usual). Because of this, establishment candidates, (from both sides of the political divide), are left with discussing personality politics. This is how most elections are fought. And with Trump, the Democrats certainly had enough ammunition for this sort of campaign. But the electorate wasn’t listening and obviously had had more than enough of this vapid sort of politics (even if it was all true.) Once the Democrats went down this path, Trump matched them accusation for accusation, slur for slur. Whether they were true or not in the end was of little interest to the voters.

    Politics is all about pressure. If Trump is to be swayed from carrying out the most extreme parts of his program, it can only be by a countervailing and continuing campaign of mass political pressure.

    Again the establishment Liberal politcians are selling out the left, widely condemning the protesters that have come out against Trump, and his extremist policies, going even further than this, embracing and endorsing him.

    The world was greeted with the uneddifying image of President Obama sitting down with Trump like he was just another Center Right politician, after months of accurately describing Trump as a dangeras demogogue and extremist.

    All credit here must go to the Greens for standing on principle and refusing to join in alongside the establishment Centre Left and Center Right parties in embracing Trump. Their courage and principled conviction has brought a smile to my lips in this grim time.

    <"I will not support this motion to support Trump and neither will the Green Party," said co-leader Metiria Turei.
    "We vow to fight the climate change denials, the misogyny and the racism represented by Trump."
    Senior cabinet minister Paula Bennett says Ms Turei should have kept her mouth shut.
    "This is a woman who wants to sit around the cabinet table," she said on Newshub's Paul Henry Show.
    "The Greens want to be ministers – well, act like it and that means being a grown up and being a leader and representing your country well.
    "I think it was actually offensive to the people of America, who have in a true democracy chosen a leader."
    Labour's deputy leader Annette King described Ms Turei's outburst as "unwise politics".
    We have to look to the future, and we deal with all sorts of countries," she said.
    "We have to look beyond the person to what we hope is going to be a continuation of good democratic practices in the United States."
    The motion was approved by 106 votes to 14.

    http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/greens-attitude-to-trump-criticised/ar-AAk8Zkz?ocid=spartandhp

    In saying Turei should have kept her mouth shut, Bennet echoes the Gautwielers and Quislings of another age and time.

  20. Jenny 20

    Be this Guy

    If the Green Party were around in 1936. Or, current photo from the New Zealand Parliament.

    You decide.

    http://rarehistoricalphotos.com/august-landmesser-1936/

    The Green Party carry on a proud tradition.

  21. Robertina 21

    According to Politico, Bill Clinton fretted about the white working class vote and in the end a senior aide told him ‘bluntly’ that the voters of West Virginia were never coming back.
    My view is both Dems and Republicans betrayed the working class economically, but the latter had some hold on white working class with culture war touchstones like gun control.
    Trump represented the break from previous GOP nominees by championing economic issues- as had Obama.
    They were both propelled to office by disillusionment with the elites. Right now probably the best case scenario is that Trump will prove only to be a disappointment for his supporters, rather than something much worse.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/hillary-clinton-aides-loss-blame-231215

    Edited

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