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TV3 debate: clear win to Goff

Written By: - Date published: 6:10 pm, November 21st, 2011 - 275 comments
Categories: election 2011, john key, phil goff - Tags: ,

Forum for discussing the TV3 Goff-Key leaders’ debate (7pm – 8:30pm).  See earlier post on the TV audience three ring “worm” circus, and how to participate if you’re so inclined.

Update: http://keyholes.co.nz/ is fact checking Key’s claims live.

Update:  A clear win to Goff – Bravo!  Goff was calm, confident, quick with his facts, and controlled the debate.  Even the damned worm loved him (and fortunately the TV audience worm was almost invisible – technical issues?).  The only time Goff looked vulnerable was on working with NZF, and that was a small part of a good debate.  Well done to TV3 for the format and for the choice of topics.  Just one thing though – Paul Henry – what were you thinking?

Update:  DPF at Kiwiblog is having a cry and blaming the ref – i.e the studio audience driving the worm.  He reckons he’s id’d three of them as known lefties.  Only 62 to go David – that’s enough stalking to keep you busy until after the election…

275 comments on “TV3 debate: clear win to Goff ”

  1. higherstandard 1

    Who is the interviewer/adjudicator going to be ?

  2. andy (the other one) 2

    my Reactor App keeps crashing on my iPhone…

    DimPost drinking game in full swing!!

    • insider 2.1

      Mine shows the debate has already started so to knows what it’s doing with any opinions or moods it is currently registering

    • r0b 2.2

      Did you see the note in this mornings post about switching off wifi – must connect via the phone network…

      • andy (the other one) 2.2.1

        Was not noted in itunes store.

        Epic fail, only lucky folk with big mobile data plans need apply…


        So turned off WiFi. Seems to work. But claims ‘debate is on air’..WTF?

  3. marsman 3

    The “expert analysis” panel includes Paul Henry!!!!?????

  4. Sookie 4

    So far the rather mesmerising worm doesn’t like Key much. It will be totally different with the ‘rigged by RWNJ’s’ TV viewers worm I expect.

  5. weka 5

    Goff is coming across very well. And the worm hates Key.

  6. felix 6

    The worm likes Goff and hates Key. Just like me. Maybe I’m a worm.

  7. Are you guys watching tv3 debate

    Where is this mystery worm that doesnt like key?

  8. Zola 8

    I’m loving the worm. Every time Goff opens his mouth it goes up! if I was a RWNJ I’d suspect it was rigged. Key looks flustered and uncomfortable – if he could see the worm he’d be shitting himself. Go Goff!

  9. rainman 9

    Excellent. Goff is well dealing to Key. Way better than the first debate.

  10. r0b 10

    Good start. An actual discussion between the leaders. Once again a much better format than the TV1 nonsense.

  11. Bearded Git 11

    Goff is destroying Key on the worm. Gamechanger!

  12. freedom 12

    Cambell is showing some backbone so far,
    but what is with Key forever putting his hand in his pocket,
    was always told that was a big no-no at any debate

    • Hami Shearlie 12.1

      Banksie was wriggling around in Key’s pocket, struggling for oxygen, but Winston had sewn the opening up tight! LOL

  13. Lazy Susan 13

    Go Phil. Nailed Key in Part 1. Shonky looks shifty and on the back foot and that’s even without him knowing how much the worm loathes him!

  14. Carol 14

    Goff looks alive, smiling, youthful, animated. Key looks tired, serious, flat.

  15. Jombo 15

    Wow where did they find thi audience. If the camera cuts to John Key the worm heads south, the total opposite of what happens when Phil Goff is on.

    The worm is a complete joke and I can almost talk that the news coverage tomorrow will be completely dominated by the worm – what a waste of time!

  16. felix 16

    WTF? Did the worm die?

  17. weka 17

    Just glad they’re not using the bloody smart phone app. The worm has disappeared now.

  18. Hey the worm likes Phil!

  19. Key keeps on talking through Goff.  Grrr …

    • weka 19.1

      But Goff is holding his ground and good on him for telling Key to let him finish. Asset sales up next!

    • Mac1 19.2

      Phil’s handling him- doing the wiser older brother thing. Is the worm driven by the audience of undecided voters?

      • weka 19.2.1

        Yes, but no-one in the studio can see the worm (I assume/hope they took the audience’s cell phone off them).

      • Carol 19.2.2

        Acoording to Stuff, the WORM was first responding to the live audience. It stopped when it was switched to the smart phone users at home & then flatlined:


        Key says there is nothing magical about $13 per hour and Labour’s pledge to raise the minimum wage will cost jobs.

        The worm changes to the “at home” audience of people with smart phones participating.

        The worm flatlines.

        It continues on neutral despite whether Key or Goff speaking.

        The “at home” worm is a lot less impressed with Goff than the undecided studio audience.

    • tang 19.3

      Yes Key kept interrupting Goff when Goff lets him finish his views very annoying

  20. Zaphod Beeblebrox 20

    Key and his BS figures- grrrr…… how does he get away with making so much shit up?

  21. ianmac 22

    Yes Carol. Either Key is sick, funny colour, or very um sad. He has not smiled once except sickly.
    Phil looks umm Prime Ministerial. So far Key has not landed a single blow. Very strange. Key looked very chirpy in the morning ZB Q&A thing. Probably with his mates.

  22. Gruntie 23

    Go hard Goff go for keys jugular – the truth he can’t deal with

  23. gobsmacked 24

    The worm is of course, complete bollocks.

    But so far it seems to be favouring Goff. Yay! Go the bollocks!

    Key looks tetchy.

  24. fender 25

    Been a win to Phil so far. Even the worm likes Phil.

  25. freedom 26

    Goff must keep it really straight here,
    let Key do all the fancy footwork and he is sure to trip himself up

  26. freedom 27

    the at home audience worm has Nats on negative, that is a suprise

  27. Carol 28

    At the bottom of the screen, it says who is responding to produce the worm. At the moment it’s the at home audience. Goff was getting a very positive response from the undecided live audience before.

    • weka 28.1

      Ta. Was sitting on the other side of the room from the TV.

    • R 28.2

      Which I found really interesting, Carol; the live audience are seeing all the off-air smirks and sneers etc. whereas the at-home audience seem to be quite unresponsive aside from the occasional spike.

      • freedom 28.2.1

        the ‘live audience’ were in a different location from the deabte itself and most likely were shown the same broadcast stream we were.

  28. Lenore 29

    goff is doing well and also keeping composed and focussed. Heaps better so far than last debate. I have been enjoying the worm as well

  29. Sookie 30

    Key’s body language is terrible. He looks bored and petulant whenever he’s not talking, and when he’s lying his tits off, his bland mask is only a thin veneer covering the shifty bastard underneath. Do NOT get why this guy is so popular. He’s one of those things that stupid people love that I don’t, like Twilight.

    • fender 30.1

      Have to agree with you Sookie Ive never understood what people see in the guy. Hes false and it shows, whereas Phil is genuine.

  30. gobsmacked 31

    Studio audience = much smaller sample = more fluctuations in the worm. Goff scoring big on asset sales.

    At home audience = more people = less movement. Pretty flat most of the time.

  31. Key is telling a porky when he says he does not know what else he will sell …

  32. Key has that stunned mullet / deer in the headlights look.

  33. This figure of 60k new jobs is misleading. yes, 60k new jobs (maybe) but several times more lost their jobs or left the country.
    Good of Goff to point out the change in tune about what National were going to do with the asset proceeds – “slush fund”

  34. kriswgtn 35

    i can see the worm thing sort of- but as my tv is old as hell LOL i cant see any reaction @ all

    my next prez to ME is a flatscreen i have decided LOL

    so over missing out on things like this hahah

  35. Dan1 36

    Go Phil. Worm is on your side. Key looks as if he has just read his latest internal polling. Not so relaxed anymore.

  36. PS 37

    My kids are texting me with positive messages.

    “Phil is doing an awesome job!” from first time voter daughter. Hear, hear!

    • freedom 37.1

      good to hear, this is looking like it is going to be a large turn out for young voters , and poor voters

  37. Lenore 38

    I got a letter from national telling me to vote national in my party vote. No mention of supporting their local national candidate with my electorate vote. i am in Ohariu so it was pretty blatant

  38. weka 39

    Dribs and Drabs… lol.

  39. fabregas4 40

    Phil wins by a mile so far! I’m jumping up and down like Robin van Persie scored yet again!

  40. Bearded Git 41

    Only time Goff has lost is when he talked about not ruling out Peters in government. Key was all over him with the worm when he (Key) said he would not work with Peters.

  41. Mac1 42

    Yep, politics can be fun, kids.

    Sookie, @ 38.1, yes, I found that strange, National usually benefits if the poll is low. I detected desperation, too.

  42. PS 43

    “Phil’s cranking it tonight” so says 2nd time voter daughter on FB.

    Great to have all those Labour ads coming up as well during the programme

    Lovin this…

  43. ianmac 44

    Well John Key did cheer up a bit at the end. Perhaps because the end is in sight.
    Can see why Key has avoided Campbell all year. He has had some excellent interviews amongst the fluffy ducks.

  44. freedom 45

    Key goes into automaton on wrap up in complete contrast to his character during the debate

    such a weak human

  45. r0b 46

    WTF – why finishing so soon?

  46. Carol 47

    Garner calls it a draw…..Henry a win for John Key…. what a laugh!

  47. Where is the left winger on the panel????????

    Grrr … 

  48. gobsmacked 49

    Paul Henry “objectively” says Key won!

    Couldn’t make it up. But he did.

  49. kriswgtn 50

    Key finished with Party vote National so we can all have that blighted future
    im sure that wot he said eh

  50. freedom 51

    the 3News chat analysis gave the win to Goff

  51. Olwyn 52

    Henry’s being on the panel was probably a condition of Key’s turning up for the debate at all.

  52. freedom 53

    it looks like Labour and the Greens bought all the ad time on the 3News stream .
    Must have gotten in really early and boxed National out.

  53. ianmac 54

    I know I’m biased but I truly think Phil won on every front.
    But Garner, Henry, Arsinov (sp?). How ridiculous to expect objective from that lot.
    Ignore the silly buggers or it will spoil the effect.

  54. Lazy Susan 55

    Garner “that’s what lost Goff the election”. WTF – is this a recording I’m watching and it’s the 27th.

  55. Trowlie 56

    I’m a self confessed RWNJ. Goff won that hands down. I really like the guy even though I dislike alot of his policies. The only time the worm turned negative for him was when he was talking about Winston and that was only for 30 secs or so.

    Good job Goff.

  56. Henry’s presence is a money issue. They paid a lot for him and have been pushing him out on TV and Radio.
    I think John C was ready for him to give a right leaning assessment and called him on it. But you can only fight the management so much.
    What Duncan and the other commentators need to learn from the worm is that their months of pontificating did not reflect the mood of the nation.
    Yet Duncan didn’t learn and called it a draw. Wanker.

    • Deuto 57.1

      Henry’s body language when Campbell called him on it was interesting – puffed up with his chest pressed forward ……….

  57. freedom 58

    Has Henry had an ethics transplant, he is sounding half objective

    • marxbrother 58.1

      Half objective 50/50 between National and Act more like it. Henry is a total rent-a-tory. he is a self-confessed Margaret Thatcher fan- says it all really. I found the ‘panel’s’ verdict totally surreal. it was as if they had watched a completely different debate. I have just seen a genuine attempt by the right leaning msm to spin a clear victoryy to Goff into a defeat or at best draw (Garner). Garner twice mentioned people had “voted” for National (referring to polls) already!! What an idiot. Great company sitting next to Henry. I could almost feel John Campbell’s embarrassment at the hard neck of those two. Even the 3rd commentator (apologies as I can’t recall her name) all but declared National had won the election because of some sort of cyclic trend!! Bloody hell! Why have an election at all…?

  58. Carol 59

    Hmmm. The discussion about the validity or not of the worm made some good points. But would the panel have made those points if the worm had liked Key more and Goff less?

    A very right leaning panel!

  59. ianmac 60

    Tellingly Garner said Henry was going to walk out because the worm was favouring Goff. Fancy that from an “objective” commentator!

  60. Blue 61

    Can someone tell me why the hell Paul Henry was considered a suitable candidate for the panel?

    Is there some sort of unknown value in having a guy who was booted from his last job for making racist comments and is Tory right down to his underwear and makes no secret of it?

    • Tom Gould 61.1

      The panel made up of arch-Tory and MonKey bestie Henry, well known Tory Therese, and Duncan Donuts who has been saying on TV and radio for the last 3 years that Goff cannot win. I guess that is what passes for ‘fair and balanced’ in the MSM of today. Donuts even let it slip that Henry blew a fuse over the worm favouring Goff. And of course, we had no analysis of the worm, which was overwhelmingly positive for Goff, because that would not be a good look for a panel who all called the election as walk over win for their bestie Johnboy. Unbelievable. FFS Henry spent all his time running Key’s lines and crapping on Goff. He even tried to run the ‘asset sales’ as a win for Key? In a mature media environment, it would be called what it is, corrupt.

      • Zaphod Beeblebrox 61.1.1

        Key’s argument was that selling assets in a recession is a good move!!! Because of the good share price presumably…..????

        and Henry thought that was a winning argument…..

        and he is a pundit…???

  61. Dv 62

    Key had the same lines in 2008

  62. I wonder how he whale is coping tonight.
    Probably pacing around his parents basement, scream about living space for the volk and how his generals have betrayed him (just before he grabs those tattered glossy magazines and heading for the toilet for some “self-medicating”).

  63. ghostwhowalksnz 64

    Farragoblog is all ready calling for executions at dawn for the worm panellists.

  64. idlegus 65

    well i think i will be watching the election night coverage on maori tv.

  65. Zola 66

    I’m so disgusted and angry with the panel. I’m sick of living in a country where the media does not understand the role the fourth estate should play in a democracy. Goff won – so they shill for National on the panel. Do we have to take to the streets to get a democracy going here?

  66. tsmithfield 67

    Goff did well in the first half of the debate. I guess running a fluffy nice commentary on how he would like the world to be is going to engender some feel-good factor.

    However, it really didn’t matter how well Goff did in the rest of the debate. The key point was when Goff was confronted with the NZ First spectre. IMO that was the deciding point of the debate. Voters were confronted with the prospect of Peters holding the government to ransom, and, as the worm indicated, they did not like it one bit. For that reason alone swinging voters are going to favour National. That single point annulled any benefit that Goff may have gained anywhere else in the debate. Similar to the way a knock-out punch annuls the rest of the fight.

    For that reason, IMO, Key clearly won the debate.

    • Crashcart 67.1

      That is the same scare mongering Key was trying to use. The fact is that Geoff clearly said he would only enter into partnership with NZ1 if they signed an agreement. If Winston is unwilling too then he won’t be in government. Simple. either Winston signs on and provides stable government or he watches from teh sidelines perhaps after another election where he dies due to crippling the current one.

      • tsmithfield 67.1.1

        Nah. Goff said he would trust Peters to do the right thing and sign an agreement for stable government. Peters has confirmed again that he won’t be offering confidence and supply but will be voting on an issue by issue basis. On that basis, Goff is trusting Peters to lie. I guess that is the one thing anyone can trust Peters to do.

        But the problem is that a coalition in which a proven liar (Peters) is a member is probably not any more stable than a government in which Peters is on the cross benches.

        • mik e

          Key has broken every promise and lied his way throuh this term in govt .
          Key is a vain power addict and proven liar so they’ll be best buddies after the election ipredict

    • DJL 67.2

      Took a punch maybe, but Phil still won on points.

    • felix 67.3

      Lolz tsmith. Of course that was the defining moment for you, it was the only moment that went against Phil in any way.

      Did Key get into positive territory at all? Maybe once, very slightly?

      You’re a sad joke mate, even for a troll.

  67. John Dalley 68

    Paul Henry objective? he does not have an objective bone in his body. Rhge plonker is National plus nothing less.

  68. Olwyn 69

    There is a poll “Who will be the PM on 27/11/11?” down on the right on the TV3 home page – at this stage 53% Goff, 47% Key. I do not know how many have responded, it doesn’t say, but I added myself to the Goff list.

    • weka 69.1

      I did too.
      Have you seen the pictures of Key and Goff on the front page of TV3’s website? Goff looking like a PM, Key looking like he’s about to cry.

  69. Nick K 70

    John Campbell objective? he does not have an objective bone in his body. the plonker is a greenie. he is on record as having voted alliance a few elections ago.

    • Crashcart 70.1

      OMG! John Campbell voted a few elections ago. How ever could he be un biased. We all know that media shouldn’t have the right to vote because that is the only way they could be objective….right?

    • JC is pretty professional regardless of his personal held beliefs, didn’t step all over the candidates and delivered a good debate format.
      He wasn’t afraid of losing control of the debate and let it run. It’s a bit like fishing. You let the fish run out a bit and then wind them back in. He let them run with their comments, tried to ensure fairness, popped in few questions.

    • logie97 70.3

      Nick – Henry is a failed National Party Candidate. Voting for a party is one thing. Standing in an election is quite another …

  70. Sanctuary 71

    It was a serious error of judgement having Paul Henry on the TV3 panel. What value will he add?

    • the sprout 71.1

      all Henry did was undermine the credibility of the panel

      • gingercrush 71.1.1

        What was there to undermine? A wishy-washy academic, Campbell (nough said) and a political journalist that always gets it wrong and is at the least slightly better than the other two political journalists on TV 3.

    • Ianupnorth 71.2

      Consider this, maybe the inclusion of Mr Specs, soon to move to Aussie, was to get more of his ilk to watch, and maybe they watched Shonkey get shown up for the fraud he is.

  71. Joe 72

    what did phil goff say in that whole debate that actually had any firepower the only policy he did say was the first $5000 tax free. John Key to me won especially at the assets sales he still have control over our assests we just wont be getting full income from them. GO NATIONAL

    • Crashcart 72.1

      So I guess you missed the discussion about paying dole to subsidise aprentiships. Raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour. That is as much if not more than Key.

      • Joe 72.1.1

        But john key is trying to get our selfs out of our debt problem so we dont get a greek type riot. John key is actually trying to solve a problem while phil goff is trying to make it worse. By increasing out minimum wage to $15 and removing taxes on the first $5000 his way of paying for all of that is borrowing money from overseas banks. do we really need that extra debt especially after the Christchurch crisis.

        • rosy

          A debt problem that National created.

          • sdm

            So national created an earthquake. You are seriously stupid

            • rosy

              No, National created unaffordable tax cuts that the GST rise didn’t cover. They also spent billions bailing out finance companies.

              • sdm

                Labour left the country with a decade of deficits. The fact that the government may turn it around whilst facing the earthquake is remarkable

                • rosy

                  The ‘decade of deficits’ was a forecast line for whichever party was in government after the 2008 election, and due to the supposed impact of the global financial crisis. You should be cheering that Labour had paid down debt otherwise the GFC would have had a much greater impact on the NZ economy – as Bill English noted before Key started using the phrase completely out of context (in other words lying about what it meant).

                  I reckon the knew they could get away with their indiscriminate borrowing because they had decided early on to use this phrase as a cover.

        • the sprout

          National borrowed 40 billion in three years, their alone plan is borrow and hope

          • Joe

            so did labour when they were in power. but during john keys time in power we had a recession, the christchurch earthquake and the pike river mine disaster now he is trying to fix it. but what is phil goff going to do to tackle this problem? he is going to put more GST on veggies, is that really going to help us with this problem.

            • felix


              No Joe, Labour paid off ALL of the govt debt. In 2008 when National took office we were debt free.

              And no, Phil Goff wants ZERO GST on fruit and veg.

              • Joe

                My mistake if he did want no GST on veggies but what is he going to do to fix our debt problem and carry on the $15 wage when he has no policy to pay for both of them. he is no helen clark and he will borrow money from over sea bankers to pay for all of that

                • rosy

                  Joe, the minimum wage is not about borrowing.

                  And Labour wants to introduce a capital gains tax, so more people, especially those who can afford to, pay tax.

                  They don’t want to increase tax for low income people – that’s why they’ll have a $5,000 tax-free rate. They will put tax up for earnings over $150,000 per year to 39 percent.

                • felix


                  National is borrowing 300 million every week.

                  Labour left office with ZERO govt debt. National has put us into debt AND wants to sell our best strategic assets.

                  How much fucking simpler do you need it?

              • Herodotus

                Felix you need correcting here 😎
                You will see that overseas debt marginally increased over the 5th Lab govt. Then there is also the locally sourced debt that comes from the likes of EQC (One reason why overseas debt has increased and locally sourced debt has diminished) Part of our “Asset base” that is offset by our debts is the $12b of debtors regarding studen loans- The same that Peters commented on Q&A by giving a 50% rebate will cost nothing !! go figure

            • Zaphod Beeblebrox

              National want to blow $20Bill on roads to nowhere. then they want to subsidize ETS carbon credits for polluters.

              Then the have the cheek to complain about Labours CGT and raising teh super age.

              Great fiscal responsibility there.

            • Colonial Viper

              since Key is going to give the private investors most of the power asset Board seats, its actually no fraking government control, 51% or not.

        • Draco T Bastard

          Ask your hero Jonkey – he’s the one set to put us into debt forever so that him and his rich mates can live like kings.

    • freedom 72.2

      so during a period where costs are climbing you want NZ to have less income, … nice one

      joe, you do realise that even with the sale of Assets National will still be borrowing billions and billions of dollars every year to meet its current obligations

      • Joe 72.2.1

        do you realise that we still get money from those assets. we are going to have 51% control over those assets so we will still be in control of them. we will get billions from selling part control of our assets this would give us funding for the reconstruction of christchurch and many other projects while getting a nice income from them too. plus did phil goff even say how he is going to keep the $15 minimum wage going? i doubt he did

  72. Luva 73

    I would give this one to Goff just. The worm is more a distraction then anything. The comments in my longie were more about the bloody worm than what the boys were saying.

    I thought both leaders waffled using emotive commentary rather than providing substantive answers.

  73. Barry 74

    Same three commentators on TV3 on election night?

    • gingercrush 74.1

      Yes but they’re gonna have Linda Clarke and Chris Trotter on as well. I have always enjoyed Clarke and Trotter drives me insane but he always has a few interesting things to say. Though TV 3 are also having Tamihere and Hide for some obscene reason.

      I’ll likely watch TV 3 for the Clarke factor and simply because in 2008 I hated how TV One did electorate counting.

      • Memespree NZ 74.1.1

        Tamihere is good value; did an excellent issues programme called “think tank.” Sundays on 3.

        Hide? Really? Do we *have* to? what, he gonna dance the votes out for us?

  74. Oscar 75

    As soon as Paul Henry came on I switched off. You have got to be joking! I might even bother to go and vote on Saturday. I sense a turning point.

  75. NattyM 76

    I’m pretty sure I was watching a different debate to the 3 panellists. It was a joke having Paul Henry on the panel – all its credibility was destroyed having him pretend to be objective.Goff won by a country mile with the only down patch the accursed Winston.
    I thought Goff did exceptionally well. Key improved a little, especially in the last couple of segments but nowhere enough to come up to even terms with Goff in terms of the overall debate.

  76. Carol 77


    Phil Goff charmed the worm and on the basis of a wriggly line across the bottom of TV screens beat John Key in a live debate on Monday night.
    It liked Mr Goff’s call for equal education for all and his complaints about the growing inequality gap, and spiked on raising the minimum wage.

    It didn’t like Mr Key comparing New Zealand with other countries and was unimpressed with his explanation that the global recession had been difficult to deal with.

    Quoting Treasury figures was a definite turn off and that drove Mr Key down as well.

  77. gobsmacked 78

    It’s not just that Henry is on, it’s that he’s on unchallenged.

    The correct response is to smile and say “If you’re objective, Paul, I’m a purple pixie. If Key had bitten the head off a kitten in the debate you’d still be saying he won. Now, let’s return to the real world and discuss the issues …”

    But instead they just nod. The “centrist” poodles are worse than the “right wing” terriers, because they give them a fake credibility as part of a “panel of experts”. Fuck ’em.

  78. Sorry John, but whatever it is you were selling, i didn’t buy it and i don’t think many others, if they were intellectually honest, would either.

    Phil looked the part and sounded the part.

  79. Clear win to Goff.
    Worm hated Snakey, loved Goff.

  80. As predicted by me, the worm was overtaken by labour people, never thought it would be this though.

    Again 60-40 to Key, but no one would of switched votes. The manipulation of the worm by the studio audience was LOL funny, (I don’t go as far as whaleoil to say they were all labour plants) But hell the people in the audience couldn’t care less what the politicians were saying they were voting Goff up and Key down, in fact I might go as far to say, national supporters were doing this to make, Labour look silly.

    It was the highlight of the election for me, ya got to be more subtle than that labour. Desperate time calls for desperate measures I guess.

    Anyway there will be a lot of disappointed labour voters come Saturday.

    My final election prediction and perhaps its time for people here to actually put their money where their mouths are and make a prediction.

    National 51%
    Labour 27%
    Greens 9%
    Maori 7%
    NZfirst 3%
    Act 1.5%
    United 1 %
    Mana .25%
    Others .25%

    • Oh Brett, there you go again. It would not have made a difference to you what the worm (or anything else for that matter) said. You would find some other reason to find fault.
      On the one hand – credibility
      On the other hand – you

    • logie97 81.2

      “… but no one would of switched votes.”
      You have a nice command of the English Language – speaks volumes about you old chap and rather colours your arguments.

      You seem to be predicting that the M.P are going to get in excess of 8 members (the 7 electorate and 1 plus – List). Are you sure you understand the electoral system?

    • gingercrush 81.3

      Why do you have Maori party at 7%?

      • felix 81.3.1

        Because he can’t count.

      • McFlock 81.3.2

        because they support national 🙂

        I still think it’s a tossup whether national will be able to form a govt. I don’t believe they’ll get 50% of the vote, but they might get a majority once the <5% no electorate votes are discarded.

        The edge of the coin is nats forming a coalition with someone to get into govt (not including taking a 1-3 seat party as a buffer beyond 50% of the house)

      • Brett Dale 81.3.3

        Party vote! The greens always poll too high and the maori party too small.

        • freedom

          dream on Brett, I firmly believe the Maori Party are sinking fast, they are realising their comfy coalition was basically a backstabbing of those that got them in and this election will be a disaster for them. You should hear what some of their grass root ex-supporters are saying. It’s not very pretty.

          the Greens, despite the matey matey talk Nats tried to spin, will have their biggest turn out yet.

  81. Glenn 82

    The similarities between Henry and Banks amazes me.
    Could there be a genetic link?

  82. gingercrush 83

    I bet you lefties love that worm now. It was pathetic of you all to scream how unfair it would be in the first place and I have no idea why Farrar and Hooten thought the worm would be good for John Key. Stupid the both of them. Was the worm hijacked by the left probably (not that I’m against it) so I don’t really have time to listen to you lefties cry about the panel. They always seem bias when they’re against your side meanwhile the right are screaming bias towards TV 3. Its all the same bullshit. I note you weren’t calling the media nearly as bias last week when the majority of the media went negative on John Key. Labour in particular have been very good at manipulating social media, online polls and comments and National too have a good habit of doing the same. Personally I don’t think it says much about the worthiness of the internet. Our increasingly mobile lives will only add further troubles.

    I do await the cries of conspiracy when on Saturday National does get over the line. I can’t see the left or Bomber eating humble pie. Instead the same pathetic excuses will be made about how Labour and Phil Goff were never given a chance and how bias the media were etc etc etc. The right will descend into sheer ignorance, forgetting that just 9 years ago the right-wing were in some serious trouble.

    • felix 83.1

      You’re confusing the home viewer worm (which many thought would be biased by the demographic of smartphone owners being more likely to be rich) and the studio panel worm (which most thought would be meaningless.

    • gingercrush 83.2

      I never brought that excuse. Plenty of rich people vote the left. Smaller than the right of course but of those high income left-wing voters also tend to be more politically active than the right.

      • felix 83.2.1

        You don’t have to buy the theory, but you’re pretending the theory related to the studio worm and that’s wrong.

        • gingercrush

          Well I’m not saying that.

          Bah the blog is being silly and not remembering my name and email.

          [lprent: Sorry, I had to turn on a caching system earlier when the site was getting overloaded. Part of that is that it stops sending through the details from your cookie in the HTML as those details can wind up on someone else’s browser from a cached copy. Bad idea for privacy. Logging in bypasses the issue as it is just for people who aren’t logged in.

          I’m still getting occasional spiking as significant numbers hit the system at the same time, so it will be half an hour before I flip it back to normal. Then I have to figure out how to debug the javascript client side version for next time. ]

          • felix

            Yeah you did:

            It was pathetic of you all to scream how unfair it would be in the first place

            Sheesh ginge it was only half an hour ago too.

            • gingercrush

              I was talking about those at home not the bloody stupid studio worm.

              • felix

                Oh bullshit ginge. Why do you bother?

                • gingercrush

                  This site never earlier said anything about the panel. It, along with John Pagani’s comments kept referring to the home audience. That is what I was talking about and that is what I was referring to. You can believe what you want.

                  • felix

                    Who cares about some stupid iPhone game?

                  • freedom

                    ‘the panel’ has been referred to here and in the media in conflicting ways. The at-home panel, the in-studio panel and the ‘experts’ panel have all been called ‘the panel’ so there is some jsutifiable confusion.

                    Earlier in the thread, ie last night, the distinctions between which we were all referring to was fairly clear

          • mickysavage

            Yep possibly a DOS.

            The RWNJs are really worried …

            EDIT: The comments are not being nestled either.

    • lprent 83.3

      I’m looking forward to the most interesting coalition building exercise since 1996.

    • Draco T Bastard 83.4

      I bet you lefties love that worm now.

      It’s still bollocks. I’m wondering why everyone is going on about it.

      Our increasingly mobile lives will only add further troubles.

      Give it a couple of years and mobility is going to seriously decrease.

      I do await the cries of conspiracy when on Saturday National does get over the line.

      I don’t think NAct will get over the line but I said that last election too. Although, there’s a difference. Last election I thought it would be close, this time I think it will be a landslide to the left. People really don’t want to sell our assets and only the left are promising not to.

  83. Wow interesting tweet from John Campbell.

    A clarification: The debate was a 3 News leaders debate. It was hosted by @JohnJCampbell but Campbell Live had no input into the panelists.”

    He is obviously disgusted at Henry’s inclusion.

    Why don’t we tell MSM that this is fcuked that they seek trying to manipulate the opinions of ordinary Kiwis?

  84. AB 85

    Having Henry on might have helped – I mean to have someone who is so loathsome at the personal level backing Key in the face of all the evidence to the contrary? Might just taint Key by association.
    But the rest should just have laughed at him when he said “I think you know me” … “I can be objective”.

    • logie97 85.1

      AB – don’t we wish that were true.
      Unfortunately, Henry is a darling of the Right and a lot of the pleb viewers of Breakfast TV indicated their lack of class when they failed to understand the disgraceful discussion over the previous Governor General. The same crew who couldn’t recognise Key’s lack of any “nouce” or acumen either.

  85. Adrian 86

    Henry was brilliant. He just lost National the election. Quote ” They can govern alone “.

  86. I think the worm indicates reactions to positive or negative phrases, it’s not a score of the debate.

    I thought Goff started much better, he looked relaxed and confident and performed accordingly. He got a bit uncomfortable being reminded of the Labour/Green history, and struggled with Winston, and then reverted to unconvincing recital for his closing.

    For most of the debate Key looked uncomfortable and spoke lethargicly. He improved in the last part and the Winston segment seemed to lift him. He finished with a better close.

    Scoring it on points over the whole debate Goff would come out on top.

    But the critical part was on Winston and Goff didn’t have a credible response – he’s stuck needing Winston to have any chance of success although he wouldn’t admit it.

    Because Goff couldn’t adequately deal with the Winston elephant in the room he didn’t succeed with this debate. Most people accept that Goff’s a nice guy and poor people deserve sympathy and help, but to look like an election winner you have to have options available that are acceptable to voters. On this Goff lost.

    • felix 87.1

      Poor people don’t deserve sympathy you patronising fuckwit.

      Try dignity.

    • ropata 87.2

      PG WTF are you smoking?
      The elephant in the room is the GFC and the economy.
      National’s plan is to flog off our vital infrastructure and dream about a magical future with smiley johnny boy.
      Labour’s plan is to build a fairer society and actually govern not try and sell NZ to foreign banksters.

      Goff rocked Key in the TVNZ debate, despite its egregious format and obnoxious “moderation”.
      This time Key was exposed and the excuses for his poor record just don’t wash any more.

      Although Key did look bored and relaxed about the whole thing, pretty much sums up his careless leadership style I suppose.

    • Crashcart 87.3

      Actualy I thought geoff had the better closing. If you drive down the road and read the National billboards that was pretty much John Keys closing statement. There was nothing beyond simple one line throw aways. Funny after having Slatter on 60 mins yesterday proclaiming that Geoff was a series of bumper stickers to then see the PM be exactly that.

    • Draco T Bastard 87.4

      I think…

      I’m still not sure that I’ve seen any evidence that you’re capable of thinking.

      and poor people deserve sympathy and help,

      You really are a condescending prick aren’t you?

      It’s not that they need help so much but that society needs a socio-economic system that doesn’t create poverty. They’re willing to work and better themselves and society and yet our socio-economic system denigrates and abuses them as well as preventing them from having access to the resources needed for them to do that and it does it so that a few can be rich.

    • Ianupnorth 87.5

      Hey Pete, as number 8 on the UF party list what percentage of vote will they need for you to get in?

    • freedom 87.6

      i am one of those poor people you smugly wash away with your blithe comments. The next time i am in Dunedin i am going to make the effort and i will be in touch, hopefully have a face to face chat with you. As an old man i used to fish with said when asked why he disliked telephones, ” i prefer to talk to people face to face’.

      I have to witness for myself what self-delusion looks like. You really need to wake up and realise that many many New Zealanders are sick to the back teeth with condescending arsewipes like yourself who have some high and mighty ideas about what is wrong with the world but the split second that a glimmer of reality is presented you go running back to the apron strings of greed and corruption. This would be fine if it wasn’t for the trail of warm piss that you leave behind for others to clean up.

      i am betting you are so scared of the status quo being removed that your votes on Saturday will go something like this,
      Electorate: National
      Party: National

      • Pete George 87.6.1

        Your are wrong on both counts about how I will vote (and I’ve never voted that way).

        I’d be happy to talk to you face to face, it has definite advantages over blogs online.

        I’ve done a lot of talking face to face lately, you might be surprised about what that’s achieving. I’m getting a lot of support for what I’m proposing here – the CEO for a major social services organisation has just indicated support, as well as all political parties and most of the likely new MPs. Local representation is growing.

        • The Voice of Reason

          You have already confirmed that you will be voting for the candidate most likely to beat the Labour candidate. Obviously that’s not you, so that’s one tick National’s way. Party vote? Well, you have no loyalty to UF, having been a member for, oh, I dunno, five minutes, and your candidacy appears to be an exercise in self promotion. And you refuse to say which party you will vote for, which is an insult to Peter Dunne and a clear hint that it would be embarrassing to tell the truth publicly.

          So, yeah, two ticks National from PG. Two ticks. One flea.

          • Pete George

            You seem to be obsessed with making things up on this. All i refuse to do is play your game.

            How unusual is it for a candidate to self promote? Do you know what elections are for?

            Funny you suggest I have no loyalty to United Future, I mostly get criticised on blogs for promoting United Future too much.

            • The Voice of Reason

              Not making anything up, Pete. It’s all based on your own utterances and much like your hero Key, you can end the speculation by just being honest for a change.

              • You’re the one who’s being dishonest here. You make things up to try and diss, that’s not speculation, it’s deliberate misrepresentation. Seems to be standard Labour procedure. If you had a strong case of your own you wouldn’t need to resort to smears.

  87. McFlock 88

    It’s official – the worm has turned 🙂

  88. Zaphod Beeblebrox 89

    How much money for those assets? $5B?? $7B?? Treasury have no idea. Who knows what state the share market will be in by next year?

  89. Well done, Mr. Goff.

    I do have to say though that it was poor form of TV3 to put Paul Henry in the media panel, what with him being a Former National Party Candidate. Poor poor form.

    For the record, even though I like the way the worm bounced, I still think that it’s a poor substitute for rational and reasoned debate and thought.

  90. hoom 91

    I was at work so couldn’t watch, can’t seem to find a link to anything but the now dead live feed on the TV3 website, anyone got a functioning link to the video?

  91. McFlock 92

    “EDIT: The comments are not being nestled either.”

    maybe they can spoon? 🙂

  92. QoT 93

    It is late and I am sleepy, but I just wanted to throw into the ring that I would be so, so much more on board with keyholes.co.nz if they would just fucking link to their fucking sources.

    Unless of course it’s meant to just be a site for people already voting Labour to have a commiserative circlejerk about Mr Key’s nasty lies.

    They have to know what lines he’ll be running. They’d get plenty of backup links to media stories just by getting a graduate to go through old Standard posts where people have compiled lists of Key’s bullshit. Instead, we get an obviously-partisan, completely-un-backed-up “yeah but nah he’s a liar” list of statements. It’s enough to make a girl join the party just to make them get it right …

  93. Zaphod Beeblebrox 94

    Fair point- the panellists mouths were moving but absolutely nothing interesting or illuminating came from their mouths for the entire 5 minutes. In the end, Garner and Henry predicted Banks would win but could not give single coherent reason why. Nor could Henry explian why JK’s argument that selling assets during an economic crisis is an election winning idea.

    Bet Arseneau wished she never agreed to go on with Henry.

  94. PS 95

    Doing the traps on FB…(hope the link comes up)

    A trader’s extreme measures for that extra buck…

    Just for a laugh before you all go to bed

    John Key Shocker

  95. Holy feck. TV3’s lead story tonight suggests that the audience was infiltrated. No report about how the panel was so obviously infiltrated.

    Grrr …

    • mike 97.1

      Wormgate. Lol. Maybe John Key will get the police to issue search warrants or get to the bottom of it using the covert surveillance legislation. On principle of course.

    • happynz 97.2

      Rachel Smalley (my wife has nicknamed her Miss Phone Sex for her breathy news reading style) was also dutifully reporting the same. Rachel was using words like ‘seemingly’, ‘infiltrate’ and the classic ‘leftists’ to frighten any sensitive early news watchers.

  96. hoom 98

    Still haven’t found link but Nightline just ran a story alleging that the ‘undecideds’ were infiltrated by Labour activists O_o

    Edit: I don’t understand why this got put above older comments 😕

    [lprent: because a comment got deleted that had comments as children to it. It screws up the comment order until I fix it up. In this case I dulcet the high server loading earlier. Morning job. ]

    • mike 98.1

      I have to admit the worm would consistently drop sharply when Key started speaking, and climb sharply when Goff started speaking, esp. in the first half. I did raise an eyebrow. If Labour fans did get in there, they could have been more subtle, maybe they realised that in the second half hehe.

      Who cares, the worm is a useless distraction anyway. Ban the worm and encourage people think for themselves for once.

      I didn’t need a worm to tell me that Goff looked, and argued better. He clearly won, only the margin is debatable. And only on the Winston question did he take a hit. It’s no secret that Labour might, maybe, sadly, end up needing Winston. That’s MMP. Come on. Key really said “I don’t think I need Winston,” and Goff said “It’s possible I might.”

      Then I see Paul Henry’s face? Wtf. So Garner calls it a draw (which means Goff won), Henry says Key, (JC: “Can we trust you to be objective?” lol – big hint there audience), and whatserface in the green says the elcetion is as good as over and National will win because of some cycle (somebody call the moonman, your bride has been found).

      And now Campbell is tweeting to disown the choice of panel members, I’m guessing owing to complaints about a lack of balance. Nah no media bias to see here, move along.

      And Paul Henry’s gonna be there on Sat too? Ug. What’s my other options… Espiner… ew… Hello Maori channel. If things start looking good for the left I might go to tv3 just to watch Henry’s face turn red/tantrum/meltdown/seizure (pleaz god, pleaz). If things look bad I don’t think I could handle the Henry (I’m happy like an 8 year old who just won the race) grin.

    • hoom 99.1

      Watched it, Garner & Henry are on crack or something.
      Garner is an attack dog when he has a bit of a scandal but his overall political attitude is pretty clear.

      Henry is just an embarrassment to NZ society along with Holmes & Laws.
      Put them on together & call it Faux NewZ.

  97. ak 100

    So the worm has turned.

    Sleep soundly brothers and sisters, for the knives are now glistening with the putrid tang of fear.

    Hold a crucifix close.

    It’s Winnieslaughter II on Lucifer’s Hatewagon, no innocent safe.

  98. dad4justice 101

    Oh how nice that Mr Goff beat Mr Key in the wimpish wankfest! Dam fools and Winny laughs.

    God, please help New Zealand.

  99. Carol 102

    Wel, in the end, (as the saying goes) the only poll that matters is this Saturday.

    I did think Goff looked far more confident and positive. Key looked worried and anxious.

    This Stuff article analyses the worm responses, showing some subtleties indicating the audience weren’t clearly split on party lines on some of the minor details of the debate.


  100. swan 103

    Phil Goff won? I didn’t think so. As soon as they got onto minimum wages Goff lost it in my eyes. He still refuses to debate minimum wages within any kind of economic framework, instead just talking about what people “deserve” to get paid. Demand curves slope down, Phil!

  101. Observer 104

    Campbell, competent
    Goff, on top like a winner
    Key, thin and dodgy

    The panel (to be kind to them) simply freakish.

    • the sprout 104.1

      The panel (to be kind to them) simply freakish.
      true, that is both kind and accurate. 😆
      it was one of those wierd moments where you wonder if you’ve accidentally changed the channel, or had a stroke or something.
      not sure which debate they were commenting on but it surely wasn’t the one i’d just watched with John Campbell hosting

  102. Zaphod Beeblebrox 105

    Well he did have a number of Treasury papers to quote. And he did quantify the boost to the economy of the extra spending power low paid workers would have.

    Apart from that …. he didn’t have any economic arguments…..a bit like the Romans in Life of Brian.

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