TV3: Labour clawing back National’s lead in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:50 pm, August 24th, 2008 - 31 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls - Tags:

According to TV3

“Labour is on the move. The latest 3 News poll shows that less than three months out from the election, their support is heading upwards.

And once you add the Greens and the Maori Party into the mix, a Labour-led coalition is not out of the running just yet.”

Why will this be a morale boost to parties of the centre/left?

“Take these results into Parliament and John Key’s National can almost govern alone with 60 seats. It would need Act’s three seats to get it across the line.”

On these results John Key might just have to accept Sir Roger Douglas into his Cabinet, with Hide saying “I would have Roger Douglas in Cabinet in a heartbeat.” TV3 goes onto point out that:

“The poll results show how tight it really is under MMP: in opposition, Labour would have 46 seats, the Greens seven, Maori four, Jim Anderton’s Progressives one and United Future also with one.

That adds up to 59 seats, proof National can not afford a bad campaign…”

There’s no doubt that Labour still has a fight on its hands, but it knows it can portray itself as still in the running:

“So while this is still Key’s and National’s election to lose, Clark is heading in the right direction, and as far as recent polls go, she will consider this 11-point gap close. And for Key, it’s not sleepless nights yet, but it’s not exactly sleep-easy.”

Parliament returns this week. The bear pit is always intense and Labour will be determined to prove itself.

31 comments on “TV3: Labour clawing back National’s lead in latest poll”

  1. Labour clawing back is a bit like a sparrow fart in a hurricane.
    Suck the kumara lemon face.

  2. lprent 2

    And thank you for those wise words, d4j. But this is good news.

    I don’t put much credence in the actual numbers in polls, but I am interested in trends. There has been a trend in the early august polls for labour to go up. And we’re still a way out from the election. I suspect that the polls will keep moving Labour’s way.

    It is going to be an interesting election, and almost certainly an even more interesting coalition formation at the end of it.

    It is noticeable that National support in the polls definitely looks like it is moving down under 50%, and I consider that that support is overrated. Quite simply a lot of people haven’t made up their minds. So much for governing outright…

  3. Draco TB 3

    NZ has been leaning left for decades. The only reason that National could win was because of the gerrymandered FPP system that we had. Now that we’ve got a proportional electoral system we’re getting the government that we actually vote for.

    I fully expect another Labour led government this year. Hopefully with a greater selection of left leaning parties in there.

  4. Dan 4

    A reassuring movement in the polls, and a predictable response from DFJ, whose outlook and motivation is what the Nats rely on.
    I saw the Hollow Men documentary this evening, and it was a visual reminder of the substance of the book. I was expecting people to be acting the roles of the central figures in the process, but was very pleasantly surprised to see all were the real people talking to the media in the leadup to the last election. The hundreds of hours that went into finding the news clips and documentary evidence are mindblowing.
    The main usefulness of the film is to highlight the fact the Nats are still playing the same game they played last time.The positive Mr Key, after the last election and on being newly elected to head the opposition, says quite emphatically that there is no way he would use Crosby Textor. There is the same avoidance of policy; the same repetition of lines from American or British elections; the same targetting of Clark.
    Compared to the graphs shown for the last election, the Left is further behind on these results tonight. However, the vibes I am getting from others are that the nice guy Mr Key is really the smarmy Mr Key who, like Brash, is ACT in drag. And he is all they have at present. The advertising package for Key is almost identical to Brash.
    As the Nats gradually let their MPs off the leash to try to show they are a party with something to offer, I was interested in Williamson this morning on Agenda. His earnestness for their infrastructure policies reminded me very much of Bradford and his electricity reforms. The Nats will have to watch their final one-liners! When asked about his likely Cabinet portfolio, he laughed it off with “You never know, it might be Woman’s Affairs.” And they are trying to prove they are worthy of the female vote!
    I think there will be interesting dynamic in this election: the tide is going to go out for National in a big way. The reasons:no policies (at best Labour-lite); a movement to ACT of the those on the right of National; a movement of the NZ First waverers to Helen; and a big turnout of those who are afraid of losing Kiwisaver, Kiwibank, ACC, family payouts etc.
    Spread the word: see the film. The clawing back of the lead needs to gain momentum to prevent the Hollow Men ever getting near the running of this country.

  5. outofbed 5

    Only surprise really is that the Nats are not moving down
    However still a few months to go. And one would have to back Helen in an election campaign against Key
    And will all the campaigning National MP’s be able to stick to the script in the hurly burly of the campaign? I doubt it
    Looking good I would say

  6. Roger 6

    At 49% National’s support at the top end is likely to be soft. Under FPP elections it tended to get between 39% and 43%. For a three term government Labour’s support is still holding up well. In the current climate its seems more probable that if National’s support begins to slip a little it will be to parties of the centre -rather than the Left. It could then depend on what margin there is between National+ACT and Labour+Greens.

  7. dave 7

    Now that we’ve got a proportional electoral system we’re getting the government that we actually vote for.
    Except we don’t vote for a Government anymore. We vote for a Parliament.

  8. dave. we always voted for a parliament – the Government governs with the confidence of parliament and its members are drawn from parliament – that has been the way for centuries.. seems to me you’re just playing semantics to invent a difference that is somehow meant to be meaningful but isn’t.

  9. Ari 9

    Except we don’t vote for a Government anymore. We vote for a Parliament.

    One of the side-effects of a system with more than two functional parties is that coalitions are likely to have shifting memberships. We still vote for which parties and MPs are in Parliament to make up the Government, it’s just that unless we vote for parties in such a way that only one is capable of forming a governing coalition, there are multiple possible governments from one set of votes. This is actually a good thing, as it’s possible for the governing coalition to change due to confidence issues without needing another general election.

    Also- colour me amused that they’re not counting UF with National.

  10. Billy 10

    So, Steve, I am interested. Is the secret tapes “scandal” now fully measured in the poll results? If so, National sure took a hammering, falling exactly zero points. Or will we have to wait a while longer until it’s full toll is exacted? If so, how long, exactly.

  11. lprent 11

    Billy:

    The poll of 1000 voters was taken between August 14 and August 20

    So there was between 10 days and 15 days for it to sink in. I’d say that a chunk of it was in there. You usually find that it takes 2-3 weeks for most political events to show in the polls in any significant way.

    In this case no change for National in this particular poll is quite good. I can’t be sure, but I seem to remember that this poll has been showing steady rises for the Nats. Of course it hasn’t been quite so ‘exorbitant’ as some of the other polls.

    A few more polls later in the month would start to get interesting. At present we don’t have a lot of info on trends. In particular have the Nats stalled and Labour starting to reverse the slide. So far it is a cautious ‘maybe’.

    If so then this is really bad news for National. They have to figure out how to put a coalition together. Not easy with their constituency.

  12. yl 12

    Billy,

    the public finding out about National’s secret agenda is just the start. It is not a one off event. The public will start to put the puzzle pieces together themselves over time.

    The secret agenda was not a one off event. We have already heard talks of tolls on roads around Auckland yesterday on agenda

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10528807

    With Maurice Williamson saying that they could cost a person up to $50 a week. (there goes national tax cuts).

    Evidence of the secret agenda is only just starting. We have three exciting months a head to see whether it will cost the National party.

  13. higherstandard 13

    yl

    Have you read the article ?

  14. andy 14

    yl

    $50 a week, Bbzzzzzzzzzzzzzzt, wrong!

    Bill English was on Nat Radio (nine to noon) this morning and directly refuted all of Williamsons statements.

    Another National spokesperson got it wrong, again!

  15. yl 15

    Andy,

    was just going by what the article said…

    “Maurice Williamson, said yesterday that commuters could face bills of up to $50 a week for tolls of $3 to $5 a trip on new motorways or similar “roads of national importance”

    If Bill English is on Nat Radio saying that Williamson got it wrong then there are clearly communication issues within National.

    I think that 3 months out from an election it is important for the transport spokesperson to be able to discuss their post election policy.

  16. andy 16

    yl

    Sorry, was having a snark. Podcast is up:

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/podcasts/ninetonoon.rss

  17. Pascal's bookie 17

    That’s a funny sort of detail to get wrong. Did English say Williamson mispoke, or made it up, or what?

    What about the tolls on the harbour bridge thing? Still the plan or did English overule that one as well?

    Williamson’s comments make sense. If you are going to fund new infrastructure with PPP’s you will prob’ly need tolls. These will need to collect more money that it costs to collect them to make it work. This means they will soon add up. It also means that existing alternate routes also need tolls otherwise not enough people will use the costly new routes to make the whole thing work.

    What did Billy boy say to resolve this? (not the intelligently wrong Standard commenter, the one from southland)

  18. Pascal's bookie 18

    thanks andy

  19. outofbed 19

    So what’s the point of National having spokespeople on anything?
    When ever any one of them opens their gob they are contradicted by Key or English
    Secret Agenda ? It’s looking extremely hard to believe anything else

  20. Matthew Pilott 20

    Billy,

    Or will we have to wait a while longer until it’s full toll is exacted?

    The Baby Jeebers wept.

  21. Billy 21

    Oh my God! I am more ashamed than Gary Glitter.

  22. PPP’s prove to be White Elephants. Very few people used the under-Sydney road tunnel while it was tolled.

    Even as internet polling indicates (NZHerald), which is usually considerably biased towards higher-income employment, people simply aren’t interested in paying for what their taxes should be paying for.

    This is simply a method of burden-shifting from income-tax to user-pays. If people were paid (by way of public transport subsidy) to stay off the roads such anti-congestion construction would prove unnecessary.

  23. Rob 23

    One Good Poll out of about 20 and I guess you will believe this one and all the other Polls well they were just crap polls. Talk about selective memory you guys are unbelievable

  24. randal 24

    the polls are moving and national is going down so that is hardly selective memory and in fact the movement of polls is a separate category altogether from memory. anyway the result is that national is on the way down and by the time of the election all their nasty mealy, mouthed politicing will be buried in the tide of history

  25. Patrick 25

    Wrong again Rob.

    Check out Farrar’s curiablog if you want to see a record of recent poll results. None of them show a landslide to Labour, but the trend on them all is slowly turning towards the left.

    After 9 years in opposition you’d really think that National would at least have some vision for what they want to do in power, that perhaps their spokespeople had been involved in creating policy… oh well. What’s another three years for them….

    [lprent: Good link – added to reference sites in the blogroll. It is pretty consistent in the set of recent polls. Nats down slightly or n/c, Labour up. For me that is a good trend. ]

  26. Draco TB 26

    After 9 years in opposition you’d really think that National would at least have some vision for what they want to do in power,

    Why?
    They haven’t shown any real vision for the last 70 years.

  27. A Beautiful Distance 27

    The National Party (NZ) seems to be a staid bunch ambling towards an inevitable victory over the tired worn out Labor Party. The elctors will feel good for a few months as new faces appear as Ministers of This/That etc…but truth be known, nothing substantial will alter. A further raft of constricting statures will be passed to preclude the populace thinking for itself, and taxation will continue unabated. Seen it before and will likely live to see it again!

    The term “in Opposition” is thought provoking at this time. The reality is that whilst the National Party are the official “Opposition” the current government seems to have been opposing its constituency in its disdain for personal freedoms and self reliance. I expect that if people came to be in a position where they did not require the alleged largesse of politicians then politicians would be fundamentally redundant.

    It seems from pondering the outcome of the latest poll the two largest parties have gained support at the expense of the equally grotesque Greens and NZ First. I do not see much moment in the results for either HC or JK. The thing both parties possess is a blind outlook for the future…hence, same old, same old!

  28. randal 28

    gee a person gets tired of all this anthropomorphic tommy rot..i.e. he did this or they did that or when things change they will do this.all Kiwis want to know is whether their supperannuation fund is safe from looting and if their kids are getting a good education. to put forward the idea that labour has restricted personal freedoms is to ignore the terrible sociopathies that are the direct legacy of the last National government and their criminal policy’s of choice and deregulation that allowed a whole host of social problems to creep out of the woodwork as the Nats abandoned community in favour of selfish consumer solipsism. ideas have consequences and telling people that they can do what they like has lead to a whole generation of self obsessed idiots unlike any other country in the civilised world while the privileged few got millions to start a new life for themselves back in the uk or wherever they could buy some friends.

  29. Ari 29

    The National Party (NZ) seems to be a staid bunch ambling towards an inevitable victory over the tired worn out Labor Party.

    While there’s many criticisms I have of the Labour Party, none of them involve the word “tired”. I think they’re one of the most active and upbeat parties out there, despite polling about 10% lower than their chief rivals.

    You seem to be treading a pretty partisan line there.

  30. Pascal's bookie 30

    Ari, It is strange that the Labour party is both tired and worn out, yet at the same time they are relentlessly surging forward with their diabolical march toward socialism and compulsory gay.

  31. Compulsory gay socialism?

    I for one welcome our new gay socialist overlords. I’d like to remind them that as a soy-drinking scarf wearer, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their state owned saunas.

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  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    1 week ago
  • Union solidarity with Ihumatao land occupation
    by Daphna Whitmore Every Sunday for the past two months unionists from First Union, with supporters from other unions, have set out to the Ihumatao land protest, put up gazebos and gas barbeques, and cooked food for a few hundred locals and supporters who have come from across the country. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong kind of trees?
    Newsroom today has an excellent, in-depth article on pine trees as carbon sinks. The TL;DR is that pine is really good at soaking up carbon, but people prefer far-less efficient native forests instead. Which is understandable, but there's two problems: firstly, we've pissed about so long on this problem that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • No freedom of speech in Turkey
    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Tadhg Stopford: Why I’m standing for the ADHB
    Hi there, just call me Tim.We face tough problems, and I’d like to help, because there are solutions.An Auckand District Health Board member has nominated me for as a candidate for the ADHB, because her MS-related pain and fatigue is reduced with hemp products from Rotorua.  Nothing else helped her. If I ...
    1 week ago
  • Good little vassals
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has published their report on whether the SIS and GCSB had any complicity in American torture. And its damning. The pull quote is this:The Inquiry found both agencies, but to a much greater degree, the NZSIS, received many intelligence reports obtained from detainees who, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Who Shall We Turn To When God, And Uncle Sam, Cease To Defend New Zealand?
    Bewhiskered Cassandra? Professor Hugh White’s chilling suggestion, advanced to select collections of academic, military and diplomatic Kiwi experts over the course of the past week, is that the assumptions upon which Australia and New Zealand have built their foreign affairs and defence policies for practically their entire histories – are ...
    1 week ago
  • The Politics of Opposition
    For most of the time I was a British MP, my party was out of government – these were the Thatcher years, when it was hard for anyone else to get a look-in. As a front-bencher and shadow minister, I became familiar with the strategies required in a parliamentary democracy ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • More expert comments on the Canadian fluoride-IQ paper
    The Green et al (2019) fluoride/IQ is certainly controversial – as would be expected from its subject (see If at first you don’t succeed . . . statistical manipulation might help and Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear). Anti-fluoride campaigners have been actively promoting it ...
    1 week ago
  • The return to guerrilla war in Colombia
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh On August 29th a video in which veteran FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) commander Iván Márquez announced that they had taken up arms again was released. There was no delay in the reaction to it, from longtime Liberal Party figure and former president Uribe, for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Air New Zealand identifies this enormous plot of unused land as possible second airport site
    Air New Zealand couldn’t believe its luck that this seemingly ideal piece of real estate had so far gone entirely unnoticed. Air New Zealand’s search for a site to build a second Auckland Airport may have made a breakthrough this afternoon, after employees scanning Google satellite imagery spotted a huge, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Redline on the Labour Party
    No-one on the anti-capitalist left in this country today puts forward a case that Labour is on the side of the working class.  There are certainly people who call themselves ‘socialist’ who do, but they are essentially liberals with vested interests in Labourism – often for career reasons. Nevertheless, there ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s failure
    When National was in government and fucking over the poor for the benefit of the rich, foodbanks were a growth industry. And now Labour is in charge, nothing has changed: A huge demand for emergency food parcels means the Auckland City Mission is struggling to prepare for the impending arrival ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Ardern attempts to vaccinate Clarke Gayford live on television to prove that it’s safe
    Gayford, pictured here on The Project, before things got wildly out of control. A bold public relations move by the Government to encourage parents to vaccinate their children has gone horribly wrong. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appeared on tonight’s episode of Three’s The Project, where the plan was for her ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Has Mr. Whippy gone too far by parking on our front lawns?
    Mr. Whippy’s business model has driven it down a dark road of intimidation. Residents in major centres around the country are becoming disgruntled by the increasingly aggressive actions of purported ice cream company Mr. Whippy, who have taken to parking on people’s front lawns and doorsteps in a desperate attempt ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Cleaning up the water
    Today the government released its Action Plan for Healthy Waterways, aimed at cleaning up our lakes and rivers. Its actually quite good. There will be protection for wetlands, better standards for swimming spots, a requirement for continuous improvement, and better standards for wastewater and stormwater. But most importantly, there's a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Fronting up
    Today I appeared before the Environment Committee to give an oral submission on the Zero Carbon Bill. Over 1,500 people have asked to appear in person, so they've divided into subcommittees and are off touring the country, giving people a five minute slot each. The other submitters were a mixed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear
    Anti-fluoride activists have some wealthy backers – they are erecting billboards misrepresenting the Canadian study on many New Zealand cities – and local authorities are ordering their removal because of their scaremongering. Many New Zealanders ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Democracy – I Don’t Think So
    So, those who “know best” have again done their worst. While constantly claiming to be the guardians of democracy and the constitution, and respecters of the 2016 referendum result, diehard Remainers (who have never brought themselves to believe that their advice could have been rejected) have striven might and main ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • Government says it will now build just one really nice home
    Following publication of this article, the Ministry has requested it to be noted that this supplied image is not necessarily representative of what the final house will look like, and it “probably won’t be that nice.” As part of today’s long-anticipated reset of the Government’s flagship KiwiBuild policy, Housing Minister ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Imperialism and your cup of coffee
    Over the next week or two we will be running three synopses of parts of the opening chapter of John Smith’s Imperialism in the 21st Century (New York, Monthly Review Press, 2016).  The synopsis and commentary below is written by Phil Duncan. Marx began Capital not with a sweeping historical ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Still juking the stats
    The State Services Commission and Ombudsman have released another batch of OIA statistics, covering the last six months. Request volumes are up, and the core public service is generally handling them within the legal timeframe, though this may be because they've learned to extend rather than just ignore things. And ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Hard News: Time for a New Deal: 25 years on
    In 1994, I was editing an ambitious street mag called Planet, from a fabled office at at 309 Karangahape Road. The thirteenth issue of the magazine was published in the winter of that year and its cover embodied a particularly ambitious goal: the end of cannabis prohibition.I wanted to do ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Not impressed
    KiwiBuild was one of the Ardern government's core policies. The government would end the housing crisis and make housing affordable again by building 100,000 new homes. Of course, it didn't work out like that: targets weren't met, the houses they did build were in the wrong place, and the whole ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

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