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Two polls out tonight

Written By: - Date published: 4:50 pm, June 9th, 2019 - 87 comments
Categories: jacinda ardern, labour, national, Politics, polls, Simon Bridges - Tags: ,

The latest Colmar Brunton and Reid Research polls are out tonight and clearly they will be trying to measure what effect the Budget has had on public opinion.

Will they be the same?

Will National’s support start with a 3?

Do people actually care about National’s obtaining of information they should not have had about the budget or is that just beltway stuff?

Should Simon be concerned or pleased?

Will Labour have to rethink?

Has Jacinda’s support plateaued at admittedly dizzying heights?

Stay tuned …

Update:

One has National 44 and Labour 42.  Reid Research has Labour 51% and national 37%.

Polling is broken.  But Simon will be even more worried …

 

87 comments on “Two polls out tonight”

  1. MickeyBoyle 1

    Still believing polls are we?

    • mickysavage 1.1

      I will let you know in 41 minutes

      : )

      • MickeyBoyle 1.1.1

        So I take it you believe these polls now right…

        • mickysavage 1.1.1.1

          Only poll that matters etc …

          But this will drive more negative narrative for National.

          • The Al1en 1.1.1.1.1

            The budget beat up backfired.

            • Incognito 1.1.1.1.1.1

              They say that politics is a contest of ideas. I’ll support good ideas by or from National but I’ll never support the people in and of National. Budgetgate has shown again that they have no personal integrity whatsoever. As long as National continues down this track of being a party that advocates winner takes all mentality with no other values to speak of, this country will stay stuck in petty politics and nothing much will change irrespective of Ardern and her pulling power. The question for many is, or should be, whether they are happy with the status quo. If the answer is yes, fine. If the answer is no, why do so many keep voting for National? Given that just about every profession and many segments of the population in NZ are making demands from the Government for change and improvement, and rightly so, the polling numbers for National seem way too high. Is that because the current Government is not delivering (fast enough) and the only other choice appears to be National? Or is there another explanation? Maybe our horizons are too short and narrow?

              • WeTheBleeple

                Cos National convinced them they'd all lose their houses if the commies got in, or some such fear mongering drivel.

  2. Could go two ways.

    Labour will have fallen a little, given the sustained media attacks and puffing up of Bridges.

    Labour will stay the same, and given the extensive media publicity, Simon tanks.

    One things for sure, if labour aren't at 60% and the greens at 25%, the chairman will be here to tell us all why that is. 😉

  3. Red Blooded One 3

    Regardless of how the polls go I do think Labour has to get smarter at control the narrative. National and their supporters are very good at flinging shite until something sticks,  Labour should carefully call out the media to hold National to their lack of ethics. (Culture survey, 2000 searches and the release etc) National controlling the narrative will keep their poll numbers high. 

    • Anne 3.1

      Couldn't agree more Red Blooded One.

      To be blunt, Labour are way too slow and soft when it comes to the Nat's dirty political games and always have been. There are ways of calling them out without stooping to the same level.

      It is something Jacinda has got to become more adept at doing. A little bit of mongrel is not a bad thing. Jo and Joe Bloggs see it as a sign of strength.

      • mosa 3.1.1

        " It is something Jacinda has got to become more adept at doing. A little bit of mongrel is not a bad thing. Jo and Joe Bloggs see it as a sign of strength."

        It is a bit hard Anne when you have committed to the politics of kindness.

        She does have a firm side but the public rarely see it.

        I miss the 70s and 80s  there were some great titanic battles. 

      • left_forward 3.1.2

        Yeah I don't know – Jacinda has been very successful at pulling in support for Labour with her (non-mongrel) style. Changes are not required at this stage – just let National continue to trip over their own feet and amplify by contrast, the corruption of National's dirty politics.

    • Peter 3.2

      Yes, agree.

  4. WeTheBleeple 4

    Tick, tick, tick…

  5. So it looks like C-B was good for National, while the Reid Research one contradicts it. Make of it what you will.

     

  6. dv 6

    That is a big difference between the 2 polls!!

  7. patricia bremner 7

    So… now we know why the "budget Leak was staged!!"   Sad really.  We have bigger problems to deal with. As WTB says "Tick Tick Tick." Our clock is ticking……

  8. Kat 8

    Bridges thinks its still a FPP contest….the coalition is up overall, is the govt and will remain the govt. NZ remains a divided country and it will take some time to cure the cancer, inoculate the "opposition" and progress to a fair and prosperous country for all. Both polls are good news for the govt. Bad new for Bridges.

  9. Anne 9

    Having misrepresented much of the 'hack' distraction in National's favour despite the fact the Nats were the ones playing filthy dirty – and maybe unlawfully – they both started polling on the day the story broke.

    If the boot had been on the other foot, what's the bet they would have waited until the State Services Commissioner had revealed his findings before they took a poll. 👿

    Edit: Just seen the Reid research totals. Oh dear, didn’t work out as planned. Nedder mind Soilman… better luck next time.

    • alwyn 9.1

      " they both started polling on the day the story broke."

      Not so Anne. The TV1 poll ran from June 4 to June 8. The TV3 one was from 29 May until June 7. The TV1 poll would all have been done well after the Budget, when people had been able to digest it, and after the truth about the supposed "hack" had come out.

      Still don't see that it can explain the wildly divergent results though. I see that TV3 includes an online component of 25%. Does anyone know how they pick the people in this group?

  10. mauī 10

    I think we all know the TVNZ one is very dodgy…  So, Labour governs alone! Wonderful.

  11. mickysavage 11

    My choice of photo was quite prescient if I say so myself …

  12. So, in TVNZ's one the coalition's on 53%, and in the Newshub one Labour and the Greens alone are on 57% and NZF is out of Parliament.  The Newshub one's more attractive, but hell, I'll take either of those, they're both good.  

    • The Al1en 12.1

      Having NZ1st out would be great on those 3 news numbers.

    • SPC 12.2

      The TVNZ one was 48-40 to Labour in April, after Arderns well managed leadership of adversity (governments usually gain in support at these times).

      National doing better this time was inevitable, though edging ahead may only be a 3% swing matter. Still favourable for the coalition though. 

      The Newshub one had 47.5 Labour to 41.6 National late Jan earlyFeb. 

      Their poll may have had Labour higher than than that in April – thus quite stable.

      One having Labour still at its high, the other with it back down from its high is incongruent.

    • observer 12.3

      At least Psycho Milt can count. I mean, we've only had MMP for 23 years, you'd think commentators might have worked it out by now.

      "Good" poll for government: 72-48.

      "Bad" poll for government: 66-54.

      Ardern would take the first result without a moment's hesitation. She might pause for all of 10 seconds before taking the "bad" one. But she'd take it, no question.

      This "bad" poll is BETTER than the numbers she has in Parliament now.

  13. mac1 13

    300 people turned out at a Marlboroughn District Council and Chamber of Commerce co-hosted morning address by PM Jacinda Aderne last week. The venue  had to be enlarged to the main auditorium as demand was so high for tickets at $34.50! I'd say from the feedback that the Reid Poll would be closer. The previous day Simon Bridges was in town. There was no coverage at all that ever I saw……….. 

    • WeTheBleeple 13.1

      I overheard some local ladies jogging past today, well to do types and one is saying, "and that's why I'll vote Labour."

      There is a big difference in those polls whats the standard error?

  14. Pat 14

    Well those conflicting results would appear to suggest that the methodology is broken….with disparity like that it may be time to abandon the whole shebang

  15. patricia bremner 15

    I would like to see Swordfish interpret those two results. 

  16. Its a cliffhanger….

    The Best Cliffhanger Ever – YouTube

  17. Cricklwood 17

    I'm starting to think we should get rid of them… was reading a polling company in Australia ditched one as it was out of step with other polling companies turns out it was quite close to actual. I'm struggling to see the point if the weighting is geared towards a herd mentally. More harm than good if you ask me.

  18. James 18

    over at kiwiblog (who knows this better than most) –  summed up as one of them is wrong. 

     

    So so that clears that up then. 

    • The Al1en 18.1

      Maybe, but in both, the government has increased it's lead over national.

    • McFlock 18.2

      No poll is correct.

      Frankly, even if their methodology were sound, public political polls are usually too rare to mean much of a damn, though they do pick up in frequency as the election approaches.

      It's interesting, 44% Bridges has armour to protect 37% Bridges against the wolves, but basically signifies nothing.

    • Peter 18.3

      Meltdowns take all sorts of forms.

    • Dukeofurl 18.4

      Farrar hasnt  had a problem  before pointing  when he thinks a major poll has problems! ( from his own polling of course, he knows they will never agree, because thats how it works but to too be that far apart is a different matter

      That was Colmar  Brunton  who were 'out' as well

      https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/09/the_diverging_polls.html

      So he  goes for the politically correct answer – ONE is wrong…

      hahahahaha ..too funny

      • mpledger 18.4.1

        Well, both could be wrong

        42±3 is 39-45

        50±3 is 47-53

        Labour on 46 is plausible and would be outside 95% CIs for both surveys.

  19. SPC 19

    This explains a lot.

    National knew the day the two polls would start – the Tuesday before the budget.They got Treasury info to secure an offer of resignation from Robertson (form when there is a budget leak). This was all a ruse to help National and its leader in these polls. 

    Interesting that their polling expert used a similar method to access police info back in the day and mentioned this was probably how the information was obtained from the budget (we now know by staff with National – possibly using an old desk file …). Lucky he was out of the country like Sco Mo during the AFP actions in Oz recently (here na, the AFP timed it so as not to embarrass the PM at home and to big note him to the Donald as someone tough on media too).

    • alwyn 19.1

      You really should check your facts. The TV1 poll ran from June 4 to June 8. By then the truth about the phantom "hacking" was out and people had had time to see what a disappointment the Budget was. Or something. The polls really don't make any sense otherwise.

      • SPC 19.1.1

        Yeah I read that the polls started the same day, which was wrong – could and should have checked (as is the always the case, but we don't check enough I suppose). 

        For mine

        1. it was story changing from the budget release – the government in action (positive for government) to the secondary phase (normality) involving Bridges latest witchhunt. This turns people off both him and the government and harms both. He is becoming some sort of Gollum creature mud wrestling with government to the destruction of both (or so would appear to be the plan of the rest of National – Bridges even implies it is taking one for the team, never being  PM but being back in Cabinet). 

        2. the different methodologies results in a slightly different sample of the population (as indicated in the marijaua poll results showing the same demographic difference). Most concerning for National is that the Newshub was more accurate for the 2017 election and young people might turn up to legalise marijuana. 

  20. ScottGN 20

    Newshub also asked respondents if Bridges and National was right to leak details of the budget. 55% said no, they thought it was the wrong thing to do. Even a significant number of National voters, 32% thought it was the wrong thing to do.

    • SPC 20.1

      Looks like National acted without any polling first to confirm that seeking confidential government information and leaking it was popular. 

      • Anne 20.1.1

        Well, they could hardly do any polling. That would be giving themselves away. 😉

    • BM 20.2

      No one outside of the political beltway gives a fuck about the Budget, the Budget leak, Simon Bridges or anything else politically related.

      Cost of living that is all that matters.

      • Muttonbird 20.2.1

        Even that doesn't matter because that rocketed up under the last government and they still kept voting for them.

        All that matters is the personality at the top – JA.

        • New view 20.2.1.1

          Really. JA is not showing confidence and not willing to point the finger at her bungling ministers. Her Governments delivery record is as thin as a sheet of toilet paper and she will last as long as the money does. The outlook doesn’t look good to me. 

  21. Stuart Munro. 21

    The only things I'd say with confidence from these two are:

    The Greens are steady around 6%

    Some pollsters need to get their CVs ready.

    • BM 21.1

      The Greens are steady around 6%

      Yep nothing to worry about there if you're a green party MP. 🙄

      That 6% is locked in, you could take that to the bank.

      • observer 21.1.1

        You're being sarcastic, but accidentally correct.

        The Greens have fought 7 elections in total, under MMP. They have got over 5% every single time. They have been told that they won't, time and again. They have been told that they are doomed, their voters won't show up, they must do an electorate deal … rinse and repeat, every 3 years. Predictions based on everything except evidence.

        Greens: 7 out of 7. Pundits: zero.

  22. CHCoff 22

    can't beat the polls of Hillary Clintons b4 the onslaught of the last US election

  23. mosa 23

    You would think it is all an illusion and that National aren't in fact the government with Nationals political editor Jessica Much McKay's in depth analysis of tonight's poll.

    No concentration on (despite the sideshows ) a pretty major budget delivered less than two weeks ago.

    It is all about National and its utterly abysmal would be leaders.

     

    • SPC 23.1

      She claimed there was no budget bump from the April poll – failing to note that earlier poll was a high supportive of Ardern after the Christchurch mosque attack.You don't get a bump on a bump. 

      Then there is the matter of the TVNZ poll being June 4-8 much later than the Newshub poll – May29-30 to June 7 (closer to the budget).

      It's quite funny comparing the Jessica and Tova shows, its like they are on different social media sites unaware of each other and their demographic poll sample bubble wrap. Ripe for satire, commentators on the muppets maybe. 

      But in some ways, appropriate TVNZ and old people (who own stuff) who vote National and Newshub and competing for a younger demograhic (but then how does one explain the breakfast shows … ). 

  24. infused 24

    it's still going to land labour in the shit. the budget leak isn't over by a long shot.

    well, whoever I replied to, their comment disappeared.

  25. Jenny - How to Get there? 25

     

    Polls: Inanity, masquerading as serious political comment.

    Polls are a way of avoiding the issues at stake, to talking about electoral chances.

    Political polls are polls about a poll.

    Does anyone really find this stuff fascinating?

    • Dukeofurl 25.1

      Reid Research   was the closest result last election. They were most consistent over   large and small partys.

  26. Sanctuary 26

    Trend wise, both polls show National down and both polls show Jacinda miles and miles ahead of Simon Bridges.

    I can speculate that they might show a few other things:

    Strong disapproval of Bridges' handling of the budget leak/hack.

    That National peddling the line that there was nothing in the budget for middle New Zealand probably shored up their middle class support base.

    The wide variance indicates the responses are strongly dependent on class and particularly identity of the the poll responders. By this mean the pollsters would have a quota to ensure they get good range of opinions – men over 50 who earn above xyz or own their own home, women under 30, etc etc. It may that in an age when identity is increasingly important than it used to be this sort of segmentation by class and age is not as good a polling methodology as it used to be – perhaps they need to discover who people IDENTIFY with as as well as economic and class data.

     

    • Rapunzel 26.1

      I live in Tauranga and most certainly don't indentify politically with going by the descriptions above "people like me" neither does my husband and though they live elsewhere to an "age gap" degree our children are often at odds with their peers.

      A lot of what I hear from people is often not based on income for them personally but more on how they want NZ to develop and the efforts to get there so I can't see how they decide how these "groups" fall into a particular category.

  27. observer 27

    Two big stories were barely mentioned. But they are the ones that will matter come election day:

    1) "The dogs that didn't bark" (Sherlock Holmes). None of National's many fantasy friends have any meaningful support at all. The TATS (Tamaki-Alf-Tava-Seymour) barely registered. There is no chance of National finding a 5% partner, and it's high time the political commentators and bored journalists stopped pretending that these self-publicists matter. They do not.

    2) Ardern scored an incredible 72% on the "perform well vs badly" question, on TV3. (Note: that is NOT the same as 'Preferred PM', which is partly a name recognition test).

    In other words, a sizeable chunk of National voters think the PM is doing a good job. That doesn't mean they will vote Labour, if they don't support various gov't policies. But it does send a clear message to National, which they are too stupid to understand. Personal attacks on the PM backfire … very badly. So naturally, Nat MPs keep doing it. Stupid, stupid, stupid.

    • Jess NZ 27.1

      Not only is National missing a partner, they have no credible candidate in the offing for PM. Does anybody on either side really like or value anybody in the Nat ranks at the mo?

    • Enough is Enough 27.2

      I agree with your general premise that attacking a popular Prime Minister is problematic as those people who support them become more defensive and will stand up for that leader.

      The same was true from '08 to '17 with Key. The more we attacked him, the more entrenched his tribal base became. 

      However National will not win so long as Jacinda is the leader. The next best performing Minister is probably Little, and we all know how popular the party was with him as leader. The party became popular overnight when Jacinda replaced him. You take Jacinda out, then you take Labour out.

      I just don't think Bridges is capable of doing that

  28. The Chairman 29

    With no sharp decline of significance, Labour's polling is bad news for critics. They are less likely to increase the pace of their policy implementation and less likely to listen to critics calling for them to do more.  

    • JO 29.1

      Thanks for the giggle and snort. Are you feeling sad, missing instructions from the critics? Fear not, the poor things are just regrouping – they know in their cynical bones that truth, sir, is a cow, which will yield such people no more milk, and so they are gone to milk the bull.

  29. Fireblade 30

    Everyone's a winner (except Simon).

    Hot Chocolate.

  30. Jenny - How to Get there? 31

    Polls are the way the media can talk about politics without mentioning the issues.

     

  31. Jenny - How to Get there? 32

    Stop the jibber jabber

    How many column inches have been wasted and virtual ink has been spilt talking about the polls?

    Stuff again last night

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/113378145/why-two-companies-ended-up-with-such-wildly-different-political-poll-results

    Why don't we talk about the issues that divide the parties with the same thoroughness and depth?

    Why do we spend so much time and effort speculating about the political parties winning or losing margins?

    In my opinion we could just as well be spending all our time determining the merits or meanings from the entrails of chickens as dwelling on the merits of various polls.

    When was the last time we had leaders who damned the polls and openly and honestly placed their policies before the people?

    It's what once was called leadership.

    Instead of leadership, we have bland pollster led politicians, that are hard to tell apart.

    Churchill never polled the British people about going to war with Germany. If he had he would have probably discovered almost universal opposition to another devastating world war, just 20 years from the last one. 

    • solkta 32.1

      You do know that Churchill was a complete pig of a man? That he loved war? That he was responsible for Gallipoli?

      To praise him here is to disgust many.

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