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Two polls

Written By: - Date published: 8:38 pm, July 14th, 2017 - 145 comments
Categories: election 2017, greens, labour, making shit up, Media, national, Politics, Propaganda, same old national - Tags:

Lots of news today.  UMR’s polling may or may not have been leaked and it may suggest that Labour is at 26%, the Greens at 14%  and National is at 42%.  And on the same day the latest Roy Morgan poll comes out suggesting that Labour is at 30.5%, the Greens are at 13.5% and National is at 43%.  Of course the social media is all agog at how bad Labour is doing but to be honest this is really annoying me.

The basic premise is that Green’s support is not relevant no matter what it is and it is a straight Labour-National fight.  All those passionate Green supporters and voters should be ignored.  For these commentators MMP never happened and it is always a fight between the two biggest parties.

The two polls show that Labour-Green are either just behind or ahead of National.  Either result is fine by me.

We have a campaign ahead and progressives can talk about how appalling this Government is, how we have terrible levels of child poverty and a housing crisis that is out of control and our waterways are polluted and our climate change response is a joke.  And don’t start me on health and education.

The next ten weeks will be the making or the breaking of our country.  Bring it on.

145 comments on “Two polls”

  1. Ed 1

    Two polls.
    National in one has 42%.
    In the other it has 43%.

    And, although Gower forgets to tell people, we have MMP.

    Bye bye Bill.

    • mickysavage 1.1

      Yep the difference is on the left we have a vibrant and passionate Green Party that will do well. On the right National has ACT which will die unless National gives it a seat.

    • McFlock 1.2

      So national coalesces with NZ1 to form a govt, blinglish gets rolled by some obnoxious oik, and the coalition collapses like ’98 because the latest oik is market neolib/has strong business ties to China. Only now there’s no hodge-podge of shipjumpers as a lifeline.

      not the worst outcome possible.

  2. John D 2

    No mention of NZ First. Pretty obvious they are the Party that represents most of what Labour has lost. Sick of leaderless Opposition. Winston Peters motivates people more than anyone Labour has had since Helen.

    • mickysavage 2.1

      You should learn your history. In 1996 Peters toured the country and promised to change the Government. Then after a few whisky parties he backed the Government up. Fine if he wants to change the Government but no one can ever get a straight answer out of him about who he will actually support.

  3. Anne 3

    What annoys me is that too many in the media are ignoring the fact that Labour and the Greens now represent the two branches of the same political tree. So, when analysing a poll result it is incumbent on them to join their polling numbers together as one entity. It is dishonest and misleading to do otherwise yet Paddy Gower and others are constantly doing it and no-one hauls them over the coals for it.

    • Korero Pono 3.1

      “same political tree”? What does that even mean? From where I sit Labour is a far different beast than the Greens, if I thought they were the same I’d be supporting a different party. I’d like to think the Greens are a damn sight more progressive than light blue Labour and are altogether completely different trees.

      • mickysavage 3.1.1

        Labour activists and Green activists are quite similar. The main difference is that Labour’s are older. Don’t diss us. We have much in common.

        • Enough is Enough

          I wasn’t going to ‘diss’ you until you used the word ‘diss’


        • Sumsuch

          Messed up, mickysavage. It seems like an admission you’ve voted for Labour. Which no one on the Left can confess without an excuse. Younger/older–are you stupid?

          • Louis

            Rubbish. I dont need any excuses to vote Labour, coz I have a whole lot of reasons as to why I will be on Sept 23rd.

      • Anne 3.1.2

        Get with the times KP. You may not like it but they have signed an MOU and have pledged to work together as a team in government. Of course there are differences but to my way of thinking it is mainly about emphasis and that is a damm good thing. Each side will keep the other on their toes. It can only be a positive outcome in government.

        • James

          The MOU runabout out on Election Day. Gloves are off then.

          • WILD KATIPO

            So long ,… Frank Loyd Wright….

            Could just as easily been So long ,… Bill the Dipper English…

            No one wants that pseudo farmer come housing speculating tax rip off scumbag for leader.

            Just look at the decline when he took over.

            • Sumsuch

              The Standard and Daily Blog can be too furious about the Right parties. Douglas and Richardson/Shipley deserve your ire but Key and English recognized the realities of NZ both in their feeling for politics and their feelings, at least on English’s part. After all, reality favours the people. No emphasis needed.

          • Matthew Whitehead

            The MOU lasts until election day because it’s not appropriate to pre-empt the results of the election. It is a pre-election coalition and it’s very rare internationally that those don’t turn into post-election coalitions where the members have the numbers together to form the next government.

            The Greens have no intention to take their gloves off after the election, but would have a reasonable expectation of a fair seat at the government table afterwards if Labour is in a position to form one, especially as any attempt to leave the Greens out of government would likely make them more influential, not less, in a situation where Labour would likely need their vote to pass anything.

        • Korero Pono

          There may be an mou but that ends election day. And if any party needs kept on their toes it isn’t the Greens. My hope is that a stronger Greens position will give Labour’s neo libs the kick up the backside they need. I’ve already said it but Greens are way more progressive than Labour. I’ve voted Labour for over 30 years but couldn’t stomach doing it again.

    • … ” It is dishonest and misleading to do otherwise yet Paddy Gower and others are constantly doing it and no-one hauls them over the coals for it ” …

      Exactly . These flunkys still live in the FFP post era.

      Or at least try to perpetuate memories of that years old Cold War warrior era…

      The fact also is this , – that National traditionally score high pre election and then dip significantly during the actual election results whereas Labour polls lower pre election , – yet score higher during the general election , …

      This is the age of MMP and there is a MOU between Labour and the Greens.

      And lest people forget , – there is no love lost between the current National line up and Winston Peters. Im sure Peters would get along just peachy with cringing Bill and Westy Paula. That is , of course , … if he wanted to sprinkle his days with humour in laughing at the ridiculous antics of the both of them.

      Other than that , its a Labour win with the Greens and NZ First .

      • Skinny 3.2.1

        Fake news, rigged polls, a bent system. No one is swallowing or trusting spin doctoring anymore given the results around the world.

        The battle for Whangarei/Northland and indeed the forgotten New Zealand regions is going to be the showdown this election.

        Whangarei’s main theatre less than 2 weeks before polling day. The big guns Peters & Jones, Labour & Greens. Word is National have been invited? They will know they need to front up or Peters will add Whangarei and drive National completely out of his Kingdom of the North.

        Probably nail home the Kingmaker position in the process with the noise Gower and the rest of the media will make. Creating quite a buzz around town, stoked the Mrs & I got prime seats, locals are saying this is going to be the biggest gig in 50 odd years. Bring it!

        (Sorry cross posted but better placed here :))

    • Ian 3.3

      Too true anne. The MOU has hitched the mad,crazy green meme onto labour. The losers need more than a few mad greens thou. Got to be nice to Winston .

  4. JanM 4

    We’re sneaking up on those nasty nats – yeah !!!

    • Well put it this way : as Bill English was the man who led National to its greatest ever electoral defeat , – he will also be the man who will be maligned by those so inclined to be responsible for the final demise and rejection of neo liberalism in New Zealand.

      We need to be grateful to Brother Bill. He is our useful tool.

      He is probably the greatest weapon we have in the toolkit in helping to finally see off this odious ideology and herald in a new era of social equity and fairness.

      Long may Brother Bill be leader of the National party !!!

  5. Keith 5

    I am so jubilant.

    Now if Labour get into election mode, full time, and the Greens stop scoring own goals, we have an election that is game on.

    Fact is the National Party are so untrustworthy and so compromised it only makes sense that voters are looking for alternatives!

    • … ” Fact is the National Party are so untrustworthy and so compromised… ”

      And that is a colossal UNDERSTATEMENT.

      And yes, people are looking for an alternative. And its the incoming Labour led government with the Greens and NZ First. Its gaining momentum because of the groundwork that Jeremy Corbyn has laid. And while NZ and England are far different in demographics , population , proximity to the EU etc…

      The worldwide western Labour movement are all sitting up and taking notice and pondering what they can do to effect change. We here in NZ are always slow to adopt change , but change it will. There’s no doubt about it. You are now looking at the slow burning , yet ever increasing new era of questioning the TINA based narrative of globalist neo liberalism right here in New Zealand.

      Take a word from Rachel Hunter … it wont happen overnight … but it will happen…

      early Aussie advert for Pantene shampoo with Rachel Hunter – YouTube
      ▶ 0:31

      • Siobhan 5.1.1

        In the UK they had a good turnaround in voter turnout, and pre and post election Labour had MASSIVE increases in membership…that’s success, that’s something the Party can build on and signals to one and all, and to the party itself, that they are on the right track.

        It would be good to know how Labour NZs membership is going in light of these ‘game changing’, ‘clear choice’ policies.

        I’d like to think that the movement in the polls is more than just the waxing and waning of soft right/left/centrist voters, who vote over very short term perceived benefits and policies.
        It would be uplifting to see a Labour Party really reaching out to the disenfranchised voter, who, after all, as the strugglers and the folk not benefiting from the free market neo liberal world, are the people Labour should represent.

  6. David Mac 6

    When this fight ceases to be an us versus them battle and just an us thing. Victory is inevitable. I think for it to be a genuine us thing, it needs Winston and his crew leaning out on the other side of the cat. A voice for everyone.

  7. McFlock 7

    Even the polls their mates leak show the nats in decline. 🙂

    • Ed 7.1

      Wonder who leaked it…..

      • WILD KATIPO 7.1.1

        Paula… shes looking at going on the benefit again when they lose. Could be wrong though…

      • Anne 7.1.2

        It wasn’t Labour. It was leaked before they had received the result.

        • McFlock

          that’s the icing on the cake – absolutely not Labour infighting, just some tory jerk trying to pretend they’re still in control

        • Cricklewood

          I dont understand why Labours private poll would go to someone else first or are they not paying for it?

          Cant see the pollster leaking it that would be the death knell of the company.

          • Anne

            It clearly wasn’t a poll exclusive to the Labour Party. National have David Farrar’s Curia company polling for them on a weekly basis. Labour hires UMR and the results are apparently shared with other paying clients. I guess its cheaper that way. One of the other clients is obviously a Nat. who chose to play dirty and leak the result. We don’t even know whether the figures given are correct or not.

            Naturally Paddy Gower and Newshub were in boots n’all being as they are rather sadly lacking in integrity on the political front.

            • Cricklewood

              Seems silly to pay for a poll if your competitors can get to the results asking for trouble if you ask me… Ill bet curias polls go to the Nats first and only beyond that if its politically wxpediant.

              • Anne

                They aren’t competitors Cricklewood. If a bunch of clients are paying a company to do exactly the same poll for them then obviously each will get a copy of the results. It isn’t only media and political parties who hire polling companies. Various private firms would be among those who might be interested in gauging the political mood of the country and UMR are an independent company with a good track record.

                Btw, Farrars company was virtually set up to cater for the National Party. You can be sure the polling he does for them goes nowhere else. Labour does not have the luxury of having its own polling company.

                • Cricklewood

                  If thats the case they are likely competitors. I dont doubt for a second that the nats via a proxy pay some money and get access to labours polling and release it when its needed.

                  Better to spend more and poll less and keep it to yourself. They’re polling potential policy the same way?

                • Incognito

                  I’ve always found the ‘arrangement’ between Curia and the National Party a little ‘incestuous’.

                  • Cricklewood

                    Yep but it seems he’s good at what he does…

                  • Anne

                    It’s a bit more than a ‘little incestuous’ Incognito. My understanding is that National helped Farrar to set his company up. I believe he does do other polling work but he derives the bulk of his income from the National Party.

                    • Incognito

                      It makes (more) sense when you realise that polls influence what they measure, i.e. they can be used as a tool for manipulation and propaganda. It’s not only or not even the actual polling results but (also) the timing of the release of results, to whom (as in: “our friends in MSM”), and with what kind of framing narrative (see “our friends in MSM”).

                      Knowledge is power but nowhere more so than in politics.

                      I find it curious that nobody has ever suggested (or have they?) that there should be a publically-funded polling agency akin Treasury to avoid bias and ‘temptations’. Make it as clean & transparent as possible.

  8. james 8

    “The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased 5pts to 139.5pts in July with 63% of NZ electors (up 1.5%) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ cf. 23.5% of NZ electors (down 3.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

    RM bounces around. General confidence was up. More than anything else this one statistic is vital in determining how people are going to vote.

    • Ed 8.1

      ““In July New Zealand’s opposition Labour/Greens has jumped 4.5% to 44% now just ahead of incumbent National on 43% (down 3.5%) following the scandal involving National MP Todd Barclay. However, in New Zealand’s September election the issues of Poverty, Housing and Homelessness and Inequality will be critical to the outcome.”

      Tick. Tock….
      Tick. Tock….
      Tick. Tock…
      Tick. Tock…

      Bye bye Bill.

    • No its not. Because the demographic that is now in huge numbers in this country – the dispossessed, the homeless, the working poor NEVER are surveyed by such polls.

      Primarily because they are poor, often do not have access to cell phones let alone permanent abodes and are too busy trying to survive than to worry about participating in polls from company’s who want to ensure the status quo.

      But dont worry – the kick back from this rising tide of people left behind by this National govt will only grow. And the longer it is allowed to grow the bigger the fall for the National party.

      Its a slow train coming but when it hits the roadblocks its going to decimate the barriers. There will be nothing left afterwards.

      • james 8.2.1

        You need to get out more – Your rising tide is a mere trickle.

        • WILD KATIPO

          You need to get out more yourself…

          I do not have to remind you of the arrogance of National in Northland , and what happened there. Nor do I have to remind you of the large scale discontentment of Nationals environmental policy’s in polluting waterways in advancing corporate farming , nor do I need to remind you of the disquiet about the housing crisis that National have encouraged through an out of control immigration setting…

      • Sacha 8.2.2

        They do not vote. Will become relevant politically when we are beyond politics as usual and direct action is currency.

        • WILD KATIPO

          Which is actually the case.

          Labour have noticed that and are slowly starting to capitalize on it.

          • James

            “Labour have noticed that and are slowly starting to capitalize on it.”

            That would explain their drop in the polls then.

  9. David Mac 9

    The polls don’t matter. What matters is the eight words the foreman said during smoko. The hint dropped in a sales meeting. The popular whisper.

    Part of being human is buying into the concept of hope. Dreaming of and working towards an improvement. We’re useless at making the most of that most primary of emotions. A bright light burning within all of us that we squander.

    When we fan the flames of hope, people start reaching.

    Provided National lose, I think we’re entering into a very exciting time in NZ.

    • james 9.1

      “The polls don’t matter. What matters is the eight words the foreman said during smoko. The hint dropped in a sales meeting. The popular whisper.”

      Sadly for lefties – I think the eight words from the foreman, and the popular whisper are all good for the Nats. As above General confidence was up.

      More than anything else this one statistic is vital in determining how people are going to vote.

      • WILD KATIPO 9.1.2

        @ james.

        The problem is your hopes are flawed.

        They are flawed because you continually deny the human element. And in times of bleakness, it is not greed that is the motivator, – it is banding together in unity to remove the offensive item.

        That is how humans have always behaved. We are social beings. We band together against the common threat.

        And lest you forget … there are far more of us who have suffered under neo liberalism than have prospered. Your days preaching the virtues of free market capitalism and globalist neo liberalism on these threads are numbered.

        • james

          We will see – but Im pretty confident you are wrong.

          The majority of people think the country is going in the right direction, and National are still Waaaaaaaay ahead of the next closest party in the polls (public opinion).

          Why would they change things when they thing everything is going well?

          Answer they wont.

          Now – of course there are a few who think that the country is going to hell in a handbasket – but the truth is they are a small minority.

          This – I am confident to say will be reflected on election day.

          Nats / NZF and labour in opposition for 3 more years.

          • WILD KATIPO

            … ” The majority of people think the country is going in the right direction ” …


            Or subjective opinion only ?

            Reliance on polls?


            … ” Why would they change things when they thing everything is going well?” …

            Again ,- subjective bias.

            … ” Now – of course there are a few who think that the country is going to hell in a handbasket – but the truth is they are a small minority ” …

            Again , subjective bias.

            Labour 26%
            – NZ First 14%
            – Greens 13%


            And as many political observers have made the point ,… that National polls high pre election then dips significantly during the election whereas Labour polls low pre election then surpasses the polls during and after the election.

            Which hardly backs up your claims of a ‘ small minority ‘ .

            … ” Nats / NZF and labour in opposition for 3 more years ” …

            Pardon ? are you saying that the Nats, NZ First and Labour will be in opposition for the next 3 years?

            How quaint.

            I think you meant that the Nats will be in opposition for the next 3 years and Labour with the MOU and NZ First will be forming the next incoming government.

            • James

              My “subjective opinion “ is based on a long series of poll results.

              Where your opinions are based on …….

      • David Mac 9.1.3

        You need to come out man. The hetro guy that shows up for his 92nd night in a row at a gay bar because he likes the dancing has some issues to face.

        You’re as left as. What’s it going to take to make you hug us James?

        • james

          “You need to come out man. The hetro guy that shows up for his 92nd night in a row at a gay bar because he likes the dancing has some issues to face.”

          Some guys just like to dance.

    • Zeroque 9.2

      Don’t disagree, but do wonder about how well we are placed even if we have a left Govt. True, our crown debt is low but household (private debt) is quite high and so particularly in Auckland unless debt stays the same or reduces and/or incomes substantially increase where will increased private spending come from unless incomes significantly increase? I find economics not that scientific and therefore more of an art than a science.

  10. james 10

    Remember the good ‘ol days when Labour released internal polling to show how much better they were doing that the Roy Morgan indicated.

    Truth is should labour vote on election day be reflective of the polls – no way with NZF put a labour leader in the PM chair.

    They will go with Nats. – as I have said for a long long time.

      • james 10.1.1

        Yes Ed – Well done.

        My point remains.

        • WILD KATIPO

          Which is a minority govt ( or theoretical govt ) bolstered up by those who barely reach the 5 % threshold… aka ACT , Dunne and the Maori party… leaving National sitting at a hypothetical ( and biased ) 42 % … which also leaves them vulnerable to even the slightest change…

    • weka 10.2

      “They will go with Nats”

      That’s certainly likely, which is why I’ll spend the next 2 months reminding lefties that a change of govt excludes a vote for Peters. Glad to have you on board James.

      • james 10.2.1

        Thanks – Glad to be here Weka.

        You might have your work cut out for you – most of the lefties I see are already counting NZF as part of the grand Labour – Green – Winston government.

        • McFlock

          whereas the tories are carefully avoiding the fact that they now need a real coalition partner, rather than the collection of orphans and sellouts who have toed them over the line so far.

    • They will go with Nats. – as I have said for a long long time.

      Well, yes. Which is why anyone on the left planning to vote NZF needs to ask themselves why they plan to keep National in power.

      What I don’t get is why you imagine this to be a good thing for National. Winston’s last hookup with National was a disaster for National, not for Winston, who’d out-survive cockroaches in a nuclear holocaust. Similar disaster for Labour when they made the same mistake in 2005. I personally would enjoy seeing Bill English aging before my eyes as Winston demolishes National’s support and ensures a three-term Labour government, but I can’t imagine Nat voters would share my enthusiasm. And yet you seem keen?

      • james 10.3.1

        Yep. I think you might find it works out better this time. And by the 2020 election Shane Jones will be leader.

        NZF will change tact and become a long time National party coalition partner. Heck – I can see a 5th term already.

        History is not always a predictor of the future (although sometimes its exactly that).

        I guess we will have to wait and see.

        • McFlock

          just FYI, “Tack” means to turn the ship into and through the wind so it approaches from the other side.

          “Tact” is something rare in NZ1 and politics in general.

          As to your comment, frankly I think that after Winston retires NZ1 will go the way of Mauri Pacific.

        • Psycho Milt

          I think you might find it works out better this time.

          Oh, the lies wishful thinking makes us tell ourselves…

        • WILD KATIPO

          @ james

          L0L ! … do you remember the acrimony of Simon Brides and his election bribe of building bridges???

          And to date – the total failure of Bridges to even enact any of those promises?

          Do you remember the rookie National placed in front of Peters ?

          Do you remember the ‘ bringing in of the big guns’ such as Dildo Joyce and other neo liberal failures just like him to displace Peters ?!!?

          Seriously mate … you need to get out more and listen to the discontentment against National that the provinces now have.

          “Seven Bridges Road”…By The Eagles – YouTube

        • amirite

          Love the RWNJ’s optimism. Or is it really just arrogance and delusion?

  11. weka 11

    “The next ten weeks will be the making or the breaking of our country. Bring it on.”

    This. It’s up to us now.

    We have a campaign ahead and progressives can talk about how appalling this Government is, how we have terrible levels of child poverty and a housing crisis that is out of control and our waterways are polluted and our climate change response is a joke. And don’t start me on health and education.

    True, but I think in order to win, we need to talk about what the left can do differently than Nact that is better, and that’s dependent on a strong, vibrant left.

  12. red-blooded 12

    Don’t let’s get ahead of ourselves, folks: the Roy Morgan bounces around. When it bounces downwards for the Left, we remind ourselves of that – it’s incumbent on us to remember it when it bounces a little bit in the other way. Plus, there’s still the issues of the ACT Epsom deal and the Māori Party (who still seem to be very anti-Labour) and of course our old buddy Winston and his gang. And it doesn’t help that the media narrative is woe and despair for the Labour-Green block. It might not be fair, but it does have an effect, demotivating people and making them feel that things are hopeless.

    I’m not saying things are hopeless and I’ll certainly do all I can to help bring on a change of government, but it will take solid work if we want to get there. And, BTW, that means working together. A bit less sniping at Labour from some on this site would be a welcome sign that there are bigger battles that need to be fought and that Labour and the Greens have agreed to be allies for a reason.

  13. Sacha 13

    Soper’s NewsTalk team pushes the pro-Nat line, as expected: http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/politics/labour-poll-sees-nz-first-overtake-greens/

    “National is still out in front on 42 percent.”

    • james 13.1

      Thats not a pro-nat line. Its just facts reported.

      Sorry if they are inconvenient for you.

      • Sacha 13.1.1

        It’s a tired FPP line favouring the incumbent historic L/R main party. Not accurate in either direction. Looking forward to many of our dinosaur editors/producers and underlings retiring.

      • WILD KATIPO 13.1.2

        And so what if it is? L0L ! … its still only 42 % .

        Now , all it would take is for Labour / Greens voters to vote National and that’s ACT done for dinner.

        Next up – Labour / Greens to combine votes and vote Labour , – then that’s Dunne done for.

        That leaves just the Maori party.

        So… 42% plus… what … less than 5 % ?

        Goodbye National.

      • Being at 42% with no way past 60 seats is not “being out in front,” it’s “chasing close in second.”

        Having a plurality doesn’t make you a winner in parliament, all it guarantees you is being the biggest loser if you don’t have any friends to get you over the line.

        Not only are Labour and the Greens ahead, National are getting far enough behind that soon they’ll need to do more than simply poach Winston to win, and good luck to them on holding together a coalition with him the second time when unlike Bolger, Winston doesn’t like or trust English.

      • Johan 13.1.4

        James you need to get your head around the FACT that we no longer have FPP.

    • Ed 13.2

      42 = 50 – 8

    • Ed 13.3

      Lies by omission.

    • My money would be on “No.” And Winston has various “bottom lines” depending on which suckers he’s playing to this week – it’s the mugs who imagine they’re actual bottom lines who we should blame for it. After all, without them he couldn’t get away with it.

  14. Brutus Iscariot 15

    Flavours of the Left:


    – effete
    – urban
    – globalist
    – middle class
    – young


    – nationalist
    – nostalgic
    – dirigist
    – gerontocratic


    – blue collar
    – aspirational
    – ?
    – ?

    • Nice gross generalizations there mate.

      Try again.

    • Stuart Munro 15.2


      – inept
      – backward
      – corrupt
      – uninformed
      – tired

      • Jerko 15.2.1

        Exactly. National reflect all of the above. Where are the intelligent people in NZ? Are there any still living there. Has the Intelligence quota dropped. It seems to me looking at what happened here in the US, that may be the case. 65 Million people ( idiots) voted for these mongrels running this country. Proportionately I would have to guess that with NZs infinitely smaller population there would have to be a higher number of idiot voters. Here is an example. From a 1000 Russian refugee community living in Sacramento – how many would you think would vote for the Republicans? All of them! they all voted Republican. These people were escaping regimes of control and oppression. Why TF would they vote for the very people who would potentially deport them or at the very least incarcerate them. I don’t know the answer to this question! Just as there seems to be no rationale for why people continue to vote for National – the oppressor. And why all of a sudden is Radio NZ suddenly rubbishing Labour and its policies?

  15. ankerawshark 16

    Um does anyone know what the “don’t knows” were in this poll?

    I think I read on the Daily Blog that in the Colmar Brunton poll it was 19%. That seems high to me….I was wondering if that was higher than normal?

    • Jenny Kirk 16.1

      Yes – the Colmar-B don’t knows were 19%. Very very high. The Roy Morgan dont’ knows were 8.5% – also high.

      • Johan 16.1.1

        When someone phones me concerning, which way I would vote, my standard reply is “it’s none of your business”. How many people would fall in this same group?

        • ankerawshark

          JOhan @16.11 My husband LOL tells them none of their business. But I don’t think that gets counted as a don’t know.?//?

      • ankerawshark 16.1.2

        So at 19% saying they don’t know who they are going to vote for, this surely is a meaningless poll????? That’s one out of five (or close enough to every person surveyed……………….I wonder how they factor that into their margin of error?

        • It’s actually very usual to have double-digit “undecideds” in polls, and this isn’t the highest I’ve seen the Colmar Brunton go in that regard.

          It is a separate factor from the margin of error, which shows you how much maximum difference there ought to be between two polls conducted at exactly the same time if both are using the same methodology. (the answer is 3.1% at most if both polls get about 1,000 answers) The usual method of dealing with them is to report how many people are undecided and then not include them in the percentage totals afterwards.

          What we can say in terms of late deciders is that in the election, they tend to break moderately well for National and Labour, strongly for NZ First, and weakly for the Greens. This is what poll-watchers like me refer to as “under-polling” for NZ First, or “over-polling” for the Greens. The other parties are too small to draw conclusions on.

      • The RM “undecideds” omit no replies. The CB undecideds were 15% using the same metrics. This is higher than the RMs, but it’s actually low by CBs usual standards.

        There are likely a lot of things going on with their respective undecided ratios, (RM is probably overall the most reliable public poll in NZ, but it’s not perfect, for instance it doesn’t make sure to poll at least 1,000 people every time) If I recall correctly, that may of course be because RM actually calls 1,000 people, but doesn’t count people who refuse to answer in its totals, wheras CB does, but then provides a percentage for no-answers. If that’s the case, then RM’s totals are actually similar, but it has stricter criteria for when someone becomes a “no answer” respondent rather than an “undecided.”

  16. Wainwright 17

    Still too much grasping at straws here. Nobody should be happy with a sub 30% Labour Party or trying to say it’s not that bad. Everyone in the party agrees they have to be a 40% party.

    The Green vote always drops on election day. Winnie will go with national for a few headline concessions. Weve got to be realistic about this or 2020 is just going to be 2014 and 2011 all over again.

    • Red 17.1

      At last a sane comment not deluded in hope or we have a statistical chance, the former been the Refuge of the blues and the warriors mid season for last 10 years, We now apparently also have labour joining that group of winner going by most comments here. But hey with out hope you have nothing so I guess understandable in a way

    • It is incredibly normal in a list vote system for a government to be led by a party that exceeds a quarter of the vote but isn’t getting 40%. Iceland’s biggest political party polled 27% and 29% in the last two elections, and three-way coalitions between near-equal parties, not necessarily including the largest party, are the norm there, so it’s not like it can’t be done. Polling over 40% is something that happens in FPP parliaments, and what is happening is that the left is beginning to get over that in their voting intentions, but the right doesn’t feel the same way yet, so a lot of National supporters and centrists are wigging out at the idea that Labour could get to form a government without 30-40% of the vote.

      It’s a new idea to New Zealand, so it’s really just a matter of whether people will accept it. I think it’ll be difficult the first time and for a bit right after the election, but the people will get over it faster than the pundits will, at least when it’s “their lot” who’re the ones governing on 25-35%.

      Which is to say, there’ll be a lot of griping if it happens, but it’ll be because people are sore losers looking for an excuse to call the other lot illegitimate, not because the right and more conservative-minded independents wouldn’t accept their lot getting in the same way.

  17. Here are what the two polls indicate in terms of seats:

    The CB:
    (July 5th)

    CB provides indicative seat totals themselves at:


    Here they are reproduced, as they don’t archive for later:

    ACT: 0.3% / 1**
    National: 47% / 57
    UF: 0.2% / 1**
    Māori: 1.8% / 2*
    Mana: 0.3% / 1**
    NZF: 11% / 14
    Greens: 11% / 14
    Labour: 27% / 33

    Undecideds: 15%

    National/ACT/UF: 59
    Labour/Greens/Mana: 48
    MP: 2
    NZF: 14

    note: CB doesn’t list Mana as they assume only last election’s electorate winners will win.

    total seats: 121-123
    majority threshold: 62-63

    It is possible we have a “hung parliament” where one party from either side of the house would have to cross the aisle to form a government if CB’s poll represented the election day vote, and no critical electorates changed hands. This could mean a minority Labour/Green/NZF government which uses the Māori, Mana, or UF parties as necessary, or a National/NZF coalition. It would be highly unlikely that Mana would cross the aisle if Hone is re-elected.

    If neither Dunne nor Hawawira or both are returned to Parliament, then a Labour/Green/NZF coalition has an outright majority by a single seat. It is relatively unlikely that ACT wouldn’t win Epsom.

    The RM:
    (July 9th. RM rounds to the nearest half a percent)

    RM’s party vote figures are available here: http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7289-roy-morgan-new-zealand-voting-intention-july-2017-201707141612

    Act: 1% / 1*
    National: 43% / 53
    UF: 0% / 1**
    Māori: 1.5% / 2*
    Mana: 0% / 1**
    NZF: 8% / 10
    Greens: 13.5% / 17
    Labour: 30.5% / 37

    total seats: 120-122
    majority: 61-63

    Undecideds: 8.5%

    National/ACT/UF: 55
    Labour/Greens/Mana: 55
    MP: 2
    NZF: 10

    If this RM poll represented the election day polling, Labour, the Greens, and NZF would have an outright majority in coalition, and even have some room to move on conscience votes or individual MPs wanting to cross the floor. A National/NZF coalition would just be able to pass laws unaided if it were to form, but only just, and there would be no path to government for National without NZF. If either party’s results reliably sink below this point, then it’s game over for the Right.

    *Assuming these parties win the relevant electorates.
    ** Each of these parties would be overhang seats if they won, which would raise Parliament to 121 seats, so their winning would provide no particular advantage to their friends.

    • Ed 18.1

      Thank you

    • Oh, just saw that leaked UMR. Here’s what it suggests, if the new shub (http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/07/labour-s-confidential-polling-leaked.html) has the numbers right, and running with RM’s numbers for minor parties: (which, conveniently, add up to the missing 5%)

      Act: 1% / 1*
      National: 42% / 52
      UF: 0% / 1**
      Māori: 1.5% / 2*
      Mana: 0% / 1**
      NZF: 14% / 17
      Greens: 13% / 16
      Labour: 26% / 32

      Asterix meanings are as above.

      National/ACT/UF: 54
      Labour/Greens/Mana: 49
      MP: 2
      NZF: 17

      Note that UMR reportedly uses 750 respondents so has lower accuracy/wider error bars than the publicly released polls, which tend to have at least 800-1000 respondents, 1000 being the usual standard. Most polling companies include undecideds in respondents, but normalize them out of results. This means that although it shows NZF overtaking the Greens this month, this result is well within the margin of error for both parties, and may simply represent an under-polling of the Green vote. (that said, the Greens tend to over-poll and NZF under-poll compared to the election anyway, so up to you in which direction those particular two grains of salt incline you to lean)

      This is a low dip for Labour but not disaster territory, however if later polls show a similar bleed from Labour to NZF, then we should be worried, especially if Labour ends up back in low 20s, as they will likely need to exceed 28 seats* to get Little into Parliament.

      *About 23.5% of the vote. The error bars are wide enough here to include that possibility, but it’s not yet hugely likely, and as above, it comes amid stronger polling for Labour, so they shouldn’t feel too worried at this dip just yet.

      • Karen 18.2.1

        I haven’t been able to find any indication of the percentage of “don’t knows” in the UMR poll – do you know? I feel the total of 15% undecided and 4% refused for the CB is higher than usual. I also note that only half those polled had a preferred PM, which indicates to me that this is less important than the media suggest.

        A couple of things about the polling methods – CB use just land-lines while Roy Morgan do landlines as well. Roy Morgan polls tend to be a bit more volatile, but CB also seem to jump around more now, although that may be because they do fewer polls. My understanding of UMR is that they do computer assisted calling which can be less reliable but this is somewhat countered by them doing more regular polling.

        • The news hasn’t covered that in the leak. (It’s highly probably they didn’t receive the entire document, as the more you leak, the easier it is to identify you) I would expect it would be similar to the 16-20% range you get when you combine “did not replies” with “undecideds” in various other polls, however.

          Roy Morgan aren’t particularly volatile, people just think that because it’s normal for polls to jump up and down based on the margin of error, and they’re the only ones that poll regularly all the time now, so we tend to put changes in other polls down to political winds changing, when actually polls go up or down even if nothing’s changed due to the nature of the margin of error, and you often need a 4% movement between two polls before you can actually be sure someone’s moving down or up, unless you wait for several polls before making the call. The other polls are just as volatile, in fact, they have a worse record at predicting election results based on a trend than RM does, so I’d consider that one the most reliable of the recent three.

          UMR is inherently more reliable than CB, as CB does not poll regularly, and they only poll at respectable intervals during election campaigns, so they don’t have a history of reliable results to look back on, even though they rely on computer-assisted calling and don’t poll a full 1,000 people.

  18. Norfolk Traveller 19

    The Roy Morgan is so volatile it would be foolish to pay too much attention to it. The UMR is Labour’s own poll, but it is based on a smaller sample size (750) than most other polls (1,000), so itself has it’s own vagaries. I’m not sure much can be read into either. Of greater interest is that the Greens must have known about the UMR when Turei and Coates opened up on NZF. IMO the MoA with the Greens is hurting Labour, and they would be better detonating it now, and openly advocating working with NZF.

  19. alwyn 20

    Until this poll became available I had expected the outcome of the election to be a National/NZF coalition Government. This was based on Winston wanting a Knighthood, which Labour wouldn’t give him, and preferring to be second in a two party arrangement rather than third in a three party affair.

    The spectacular crash in the Labour Party popularity and the rapid growth in the preferences for NZF lead to the possibility, and in my view quite likely outcome that changes the whole dynamic.

    The general public are only now looking at the election and considering their options. Little is just like the Labour leader in 2014. When you look at him closely you are horrified. He is clearly incapable of doing the job.
    Labour has dropped 8% in two months. It is quite capable of dropping another 8% in the next two months and ending up on about 18% in the election. NZF on the other hand will only continue to take the votes away from Labour and will end up on 20%.
    The Greens will, as they always do, drop below their poll numbers and will end up on 9%.
    National will end up on about 44%.

    Winston will now be the largest party in opposition. He can form a coalition of NZF/Labour with himself as PM. He won’t be able to resist it. The Green Party can’t do anything about it, can they? The can’t refuse to allow any stable Government and their members won’t allow them to back Labour. Back in their usual irrelevant situation.

    Winnie for King!

  20. Tanz 21

    The Greens have just antagonised voters by threatening to force another election if things don’t go their way. Don’t they believe in the democratic process?
    They are not as pragmatic and honourable as they used to make out.
    After all, only one in twenty people vote Green, if that, and they think they have the right to force another election, at great expense. What a joke.
    No wonder Winnie is doing so well, the Greens just handed him the election on a plate.
    Labour must be wishing they had never joined forces with the Watermelon party, it just isn’t working out at all.
    Winston will most likely be Kingmaker this time around, and the Greens will be locked out of power, yet again. Here’s hoping.
    The last poll I saw had Winston at 14 percent, Labour at 26 percent, Greens at 13 percent. How for the left, is this good news?

    • Anne 21.1

      Oh dear, I know this is going to upset you Tanzie but you are behind the times. Here’s the latest poll:


      In July New Zealand’s opposition Labour/Greens has jumped 4.5% to 44% now just ahead of incumbent National on 43% (down 3.5%) following the scandal involving National MP Todd Barclay. However, in New Zealand’s September election the issues of Poverty, Housing and Homelessness and Inequality will be critical to the outcome.

      Try not to take this news too badly. Life will still go on even if ‘life’ improves immeasurably for the low incomed and disenfranchised among us whom you clearly hate with a passion.

      • Tanz 21.1.1

        Not worried a bit, Anne. I would bet a bucketload that Winston chooses to go with Natioinal and that the Greens and Labour are locked out of govt, yet again.
        Nothing to do with the low incomed etc, and everything to do with good policy, common sense and not selling our NZ housing stock and land down the river to China. Labour used to be the working person’s party, but these days they are all PC and about identity politics.
        The Greens are their own worst enemies, they keep giving Winston free publicity, and he keeps rising in the polls. He may even be Prime Minister, anything is possible. He has leverage and the Greens, through ruling out working with National, simply don’t.

  21. Chris 22

    The MOU may run out on election day, but Labour will still have to have the Greens to form a govt.

    So Labour won’t exactly be in the driving seat, given the Green’s history of being quite happy in opposition, if they don’t get what they want

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