web analytics

Two ticks red

Written By: - Date published: 7:33 am, September 22nd, 2017 - 25 comments
Categories: bill english, greens, jacinda ardern, john key, labour, national, same old national, youtube - Tags:

R0b and Bill have declared their political preferences, R0b going with Labour and Bill with the Greens, two ticks both times.

I thought I should do the same.

I will not surprise anyone by saying that I am ticking red both times.

Why?

Well electorate wise it was really easy. Deborah Russell will be a significant addition to the Labour caucus and her skills will be well used. If you are going to run the country you need people who can do the job.

Her main opponent, Pablo Garcia, is an unusual candidate with some strange views. He is also a lightweight and would contribute nothing to our Parliament. The Greens candidate Leilani Tamu is someone who has some great talents and abilities and someone I have a great amount of respect for but her job is to win party votes not the seat.

My party vote was more difficult and I avoided the temptation to vote early.

When I do one of those “which party most closely matches your world view” tests I get told that Green or sometimes Mana are the parties that most closely match my preferred policies.

Climate change is the most important issue the human race is facing. And the environment is our most important asset. These should be at the forefront of our politics.

And the Greens’ position on these areas is strong and principled.

So I gave serious thought to voting Green.

There were two scenarios where I thought that I would vote Green:

  1. They were in danger of not meeting the 5% threshold.
  2. Labour was well ahead of National but New Zealand First was going to have a considerable presence.

As to 1 it appears that the Green vote has rallied and they are safe.

And New Zealand First is wilting. I am not surprised. Winston Peters is showing that he no longer has his former drawing power. One benefit is that it appears that Shane Jones will not make it.

But my tribal preference holds strong sway and I have deep respect for the Kaupapa of the Labour Party.  So it is tick red.

Because of its commitment to the trade union movement and to improving the plight of ordinary Kiwis. The emphasis on education so that all kids can achieve their potential. The acknowledgment of the importance of Maori and the Treaty, the historic partnership between Micky Savage and the Ratana Church being a strong and lasting partnership.

The commitment to multiculturalism and the celebration of diversity. This is something that National has done recently when it realised there were political benefits in doing so but this has been a core belief of Labour’s for a long time.

The independent world view. I find it so upsetting when our Government obsequiously follows America or England into insane wars or in support of idiot positions. I cheered loudly when David Lange declared New Zealand nuclear free and stood up and proclaimed how this was the right and moral thing to do.

And there is some serious talent in Labour’s list. Right now Labour may get some really great people into Parliament. People such as Liz Craig, Anahila Kanongata’a Suisuiki, Lemauga Lydia Sosene and on a good night Romy Udanga. Every party vote Labour gets improves their prospects of being elected.

And to complete the analysis could I vote National? They are not as bad as they were in the past, the 1970s and 1980s version was a redneck conservative coalition of anti progressives. The 1990s version was a cruel ideological blinkered version that almost wrecked our country and we are still paying the price now.

The John Key-Bill English version perfected the ability to sound reasonable and pretend they were Labour lite. They still did the ideological stuff, the selling of our power shares being one of their most stupid decisions.

But they are a pale imitation of past versions. And their cost accounting approach to running something as complex as a country and their complete indifference to human misery unless it is showing up in the opinion polls when it is then met with the weakest of incremental responses means they have to be voted out.

And their style is very undemocratic.  Their abuse of the Official Information laws and their micro managing the flow of information for political advantage are particular features that mean they should not be trusted with Government.

And I think Jacinda is extraordinary. She could be right up there with Norm Kirk, David Lange, Helen Clark and yes even Micky Savage if she gets the chance.

So two ticks red. But I will be cheering the Greens on and hope they are returned in numbers.

25 comments on “Two ticks red ”

  1. cleangreen 1

    Yes for my wife and I we will give one tick each for our Napier MP Stuart Nash.

  2. roy cartland 2

    Nice one MS. There is a real chance to get the LP values of old back with Jacinda. Inclusivity, fairness-justice-equality and respect for each other and the environment.

    Labour this time has been given that sacred mandate by all LP voters, and they know their feet will be held to the fire should they be bullied into wavering. It’s obvious a lot of trust has gone into this vote and I believe Jacinda won’t abuse it.

    Kia kaha!

  3. Ad 3

    It will be good to have the Greens back : Labour needs them as their policy unit.

    Not sure about Deborah. Too green and no clue about Parliamentary or party process., no idea about local constituency issues. Cunliffe left her with a 4,500 majority so maybe she can afford to lose a few.

    • Andre 3.1

      Timmy was a somewhat stronger opponent than Paulo, which will help Deborah.

    • swordfish 3.2

      Yes – While I wouldn’t want to deny Russell’s exceptional talents expertise and competence … she would’ve been more appropriate as a List MP.

      Greg = highly popular local community leader … spent his entire life in the area, has a nuanced understanding and extensive network of contacts within the seat, and has proven electorally popular with local constituents time and time again

      Deborah = affluent academic outsider (and former Young Nat) parachuted into a largely working class Westie seat 400kms to the North (& at remarkably short notice) Doesn’t know the local political ground

  4. Dot 5

    Yes fairness and justice for Aotearoa ! we need more Mickey Savage’s

  5. ianmac 6

    If NZF don’t make the threshold or win Winston’s seat, how would that effect the outcome? (My votes are two ticks red for similar reasons as Micky’s.)

    • DoublePlusGood 6.1

      That vote would get redistributed. It would push both Labour + Greens and National + ACT close to the 61 seats needed. It would potentially come down to who the Māori party want to support. It could even be a hung parliament, forcing either a new election or some sort of grand coalition.

    • Andre 6.2

      If NZ1st don’t make, then everybody else that does make it gets a stronger position.

      Depending on exactly how the votes fall, Nats may go from needing an agreement to being able to govern alone, or Greens/Labour may go from needing Winnie to being able to govern alone, or the Maori Party may go from being an afterthought to kingmakers.

  6. DoublePlusGood 7

    All these people really hoping the Greens get back in, in numbers, and then not voting for them. Uh-huh. Has me well worried if half the lefties on the biggest lefty blog are all voting for the centrist diet-neoliberalsm party.

    • Bill 7.1

      I agree with your take on the hope versus vote schism.

      But to be fair, when either r0b or micky throw a vote anywhere bar NZ Labour, I think we can say the death of NZ Labour, that’s being anticipated by some ( me included) can be said to be at the stage of death rattle.

      As for “half” the lefties on this blog voting NZ Labour, I’m picking it’s nowhere near that proportion.

      Lynn also wrote a post stating he’d voted Green. And he’s pretty conservative on the whole. I suspect Weka will be voting Green.

      And I get the impression from comments that a far greater number of commenters are voting Green that was the case last election

      • Ad 7.1.1

        “Death rattle” when Labour’s at 37% and Greens are at 7%.
        Top work there Death.

        NZ is the only place Greens might even possibly get in central government anywhere in the world.

        • Bill 7.1.1.1

          What the fuck are you on about Ad?

          Are micky and r0b not voting NZ Labour? Why, yes they are. So your comment is bloody stupid innit?

          • Ad 7.1.1.1.1

            What is stupid is saying Labour is “at the stage of a death rattle”.

            Wish for it all you like. Not happening.

            • Craig H 7.1.1.1.1.1

              Bill didn’t say that Labour was in a death rattle, he said that it will be a death rattle when mickey or r0b vote for someone other than Labour.

        • marty mars 7.1.1.2

          it might be a baby rattle I think – as the renewal occurs, a new day, fresh with anticipation, the new growth and hope is like a wee baby coming forth and in their hand is a wee rattle rattling away like the loudest beacon of hope for the oppressed and downtrodden.

  7. popexplosion 8

    I voted Green. Govt taxes us all, water taxes aren’t a tax, they are a levy. There are public taxes, and private taxes, levied by govt. Current water policies are a private tax on those who don’t need irrigation water. So we have this socialism farmers union arguing to keep their private taxes rewarding big water takers, and begging farmer who won’t pay one cent more, who will in fact gain better competitive advantage in the market when not competing with big water takers. So I voted Green, the fake media and it’s fake national economy of low tax. Not being able to swim in the river, polluted or low flow, is a private govt legislated tax on everyone.

  8. Craig H 9

    Two ticks for Labour in our household!

  9. tracey 10

    Kia ora MS. We are all in this together.

    Kia kaha whatever happens tomoz

  10. swordfish 11

    Micky

    When I do one of those “which party most closely matches your world view” tests I get told that Green or sometimes Mana are the parties that most closely match my preferred policies

    Ha ! same here … and yet I’ve still Party-Voted Labour at the last 2 Elections … Go figure

    Now leaning heavily toward Party-Voting for our ethereal Greenie chums on Saturday

    Which allows me to smoothly segue …

    Micky

    It appears that the Green vote has rallied and they are safe

    .

    While in broad terms the Greens are trending up (as you & Pat have argued) … I’d suggest things are still pretty precarious … odds (at best) mildly in Greens favour but they’re by no means out of the woods yet

    They’re usually over-stated by 1-4 percentage points in final polls

    Eg Final Reid Research

    2014 14.4 (over-states by 3.7)

    2011 13.4 (over-states by 2.34)

    2008 9 (over-states by 2.28)

    Final RR 2017 … 7.1% … Try subtracting 2.3-3.7 points and see how far it gets you = not quite as rosy as one might initially assume

    Too many Lefties taking Green polling at face value

    So subtract 1-4 points from the following

    Greens %
    Last 7 Polls

    UMR 7
    Curia 6
    RR 7.1
    CB 8
    CB 7
    RR 4.9
    RM 9

    • Pat 11.1

      have a lot of time for your opinion swordfish and am still likely to give my vote to greens tomorrow but I am increasingly confident that the polls are well off and our next Gov will be Lab/Green…and hopefully no need for additions

      https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/22/49399/there-may-have-been-a-youth-quake

      and after that event I pray the goodwill required to make the partnership successful prevails

    • Zeroque 11.2

      It would be interesting to see historic data like this for NZF. I keep hearing that they have typically polled lower than their final vote tally but I haven’t seen any numbers by election.

      • swordfish 11.2.1

        2014

        Final CB under-states NZF by 0.7 percentage points
        Final RR under-states NZF by 1.6 percentage points
        Final RM under-states NZF by 0.7 percentage points
        Final UMR under-states NZF by 1.2 percentage points

        2nd last CB under-states NZF by 1.7 percentage points
        2nd last RR under-states NZF by 2.8 percentage points

        2011

        Final CB under-states NZF by 2.4 percentage points
        Final RR under-states NZF by 3.5 percentage points
        Final RM under-states NZF by 0.1 percentage points

        2nd last CB under-states NZF by 4.4 percentage points
        2nd last RR under-states NZF by 3.1 percentage points

        2008

        Final CB under-states NZF by 1.7 percentage points
        Final RR under-states NZF by 0.7 percentage points
        Final RM over-states NZF by 0.4 percentage points
        Final UMR under-states NZF by 1.3 percentage points

        2nd last CB under-states NZF by 1.1 percentage points
        2nd last RR under-states NZF by 0.6 percentage points

  11. Tanz 12

    Labour needs another leader like David Lange, who by and far was the best PM we ever had. No one of such integrity these days, on either side.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Tokelau Language Week reminds us to stay united and strong
    Staying strong in the face of challenges and being true to our heritage and languages are key to preserving our cultural identity and wellbeing, is the focus of the 2020 Tokelau Language Week. Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio, says this year’s theme, ‘Apoapo tau foe, i nā tāfea ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • NZ announces a third P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    The Government has deployed a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 Orion (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea, announced Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark. “New Zealand has long supported ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Pacific trade and development agreement a reality
    Pacific regional trade and development agreement PACER Plus will enter into force in 60 days now that the required eight countries have ratified it. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker welcomed the announcement that the Cook Islands is the eighth nation to ratify this landmark agreement. “The agreement represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Securing a pipeline of teachers
    The Government is changing its approach to teacher recruitment as COVID-19 travel restrictions continue, by boosting a range of initiatives to get more Kiwis into teaching. “When we came into Government, we were faced with a teacher supply crisis,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “Over the past three years, we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Border exceptions for a small number of international students with visas
    The Government has established a new category that will allow 250 international PhD and postgraduate students to enter New Zealand and continue their studies, in the latest set of border exceptions. “The health, safety and wellbeing of people in New Zealand remains the Government’s top priority. Tight border restrictions remain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • First COVID-19 vaccine purchase agreement signed
    The Government has signed an agreement to purchase 1.5 million COVID-19 vaccines – enough for 750,000 people – from Pfizer and BioNTech, subject to the vaccine successfully completing all clinical trials and passing regulatory approvals in New Zealand, say Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods and Health Minister Chris Hipkins. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • International statement – End-to-end encryption and public safety
    We, the undersigned, support strong encryption, which plays a crucial role in protecting personal data, privacy, intellectual property, trade secrets and cyber security.  It also serves a vital purpose in repressive states to protect journalists, human rights defenders and other vulnerable people, as stated in the 2017 resolution of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ministry of Defence Biodefence Assessment released
    The Ministry of Defence has today released a Defence Assessment examining Defence’s role across the spectrum of biological hazards and threats facing New Zealand. Biodefence: Preparing for a New Era of Biological Hazards and Threats looks at how the NZDF supports other agencies’ biodefence activities, and considers the context of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020
    New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020 Hon David Parker’s response following Thomas Piketty and Esther Duflo. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, wherever in the world you might be. I first acknowledge the excellent thought provoking speeches of Thomas Piketty and Esther ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Kaipara Moana restoration takes next step
    A Memorandum of Understanding has been signed today at Waihāua Marae between the Crown, local iwi and councils to protect, restore and enhance the mauri of Kaipara Moana in Northland. Environment Minister David Parker signed the document on behalf of the Crown along with representatives from Ngā Maunga Whakahī, Ngāti ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand and Uruguay unite on reducing livestock production emissions
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor and Uruguayan Minister of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries Carlos María Uriarte have welcomed the launch of a three-year project that will underpin sustainable livestock production in Uruguay, Argentina, and Costa Rica.  The project called ‘Innovation for pasture management’ is led by Uruguay’s National Institute of Agricultural ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 3100 jobs created through marae upgrades
    Hundreds of marae throughout the country will be upgraded through investments from the Provincial Growth Fund’s refocused post COVID-19 funding to create jobs and put money into the pockets of local tradespeople and businesses, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta have announced. “A total ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Health volunteers recognised in annual awards
    Health Minister Chris Hipkins has announced 9 teams and 14 individuals are the recipients of this year’s Minister of Health Volunteer Awards.  “The health volunteer awards celebrate and recognise the thousands of dedicated health sector volunteers who give many hours of their time to help other New Zealanders,” Mr Hipkins ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community COVID-19 Fund supports Pacific recovery
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio says a total of 264 groups and individuals have successfully applied for the Pacific Aotearoa Community COVID-19 Recovery Fund, that will support Pacific communities drive their own COVID-19 recovery strategies, initiatives, and actions. “I am keen to see this Fund support Pacific ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community benefits from Māori apprenticeships
    Up to 50 Māori apprentices in Wellington will receive paid training to build houses for their local communities, thanks to a $2.75 million investment from the Māori Trades and Training Fund, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Ngāti Toa Rangatira Incorporated to provide its Ngā Kaimahi ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Training fund supports Māori jobseekers
    Rapidly growing sectors will benefit from a $990,000 Māori Trades and Training Fund investment which will see Wellington jobseekers supported into work, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Sapphire Consultants Ltd. to help up to 45 Māori jobseekers into paid training initiatives over two years through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ruakura Inland Port development vital infrastructure for Waikato
    The Government is investing $40 million to develop an inland port at Ruakura which will become a freight super-hub and a future business, research and residential development for the Waikato, Urban Development and Transport Minister Phil Twyford, and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. The funding has been has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Appointments made to Defence Expert Review Group
    Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today the establishment of an Expert Review Group to review a number of aspects of the New Zealand Defence Force’s (NZDF) structure, information management and record-keeping processes.  The Expert Review Group’s work arises out of the first recommendation from the Report of the Government’s Inquiry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • No active community cases of COVID-19
    There are no active community cases of COVID-19 remaining in the country after the last people from the recent outbreak have recovered from the virus, Health Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “This is a big milestone. New Zealanders have once again through their collective actions squashed the virus. The systems ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Clean energy upgrade for more public buildings
    More public buildings will be supported by the Government to upgrade to run on clean energy, the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw announced today. Minister Shaw announced that Lincoln and Auckland universities will receive support through the Clean-Powered Public Service Fund to replace fossil fuel boilers. Southern, Taranaki, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Schools back donations scheme for the second year
    More schools have opted in to the donations scheme for 2021, compared to 2020 when the scheme was introduced. “The families of more than 447,000 students will be better off next year, with 94% of eligible schools and kura opting into the scheme,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago