Two weeks to go …

Written By: - Date published: 11:05 am, September 6th, 2014 - 139 comments
Categories: david cunliffe, election 2014, john key, labour, Media, national, newspapers, same old national, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

Two weeks to go in the country’s most interesting election campaign for a while.

Recent polls suggest that National’s slide has been halted.  I do not accept that this necessarily is the reality because the polls are all over the place and I believe that the polling methods used are becoming increasingly unstable as more and more people get rid of landlines.  In the last few days we have had polls suggesting that National’s support is anywhere between 45% and 54%.  Also the on the ground feeling is way better than previously.  And there is a surge in early voting way above the previous election which is at odds with the claims that the election is all over.

It may be that Key has temporarily halted National’s slide by getting rid of Collins.  Some kiwis like this sort of “strong leadership”.  Often such action is met with approval.  But generally after a temporary relief the underlying trend continues.

Again according to the polls Labour is marooned and is faced with a campaign which is being starved of airtime and also having to deal with a targeted National assault on the prospects of a left coalition.  National is betting that this particular framing will make timid centrist voters stick to National rather than face the prospect of a reasonably left government being elected.  Time will tell if National is correct.  Although I still believe that the corrosive effect of Dirty Politics will continue and more and more people will decide that business as usual under this government should end.

One adverse effect of Dirty Politics is that so far this election has been relatively policy free.  National has announced some policy, generally involving  a modest amount of money being spent over an extended period attached to a slogan.  Labour has screeds of policy.  The contrast is startling.

Some media commentators are making unusual claims.  After a series of articles attacking dirty politics John Armstrong has had a bit of a relapse and claimed that David Cunliffe’s wanting to check on detail is somehow a failure.  Get this.  John Key lies about Labour’s policy saying that the family home if owned by a trust will be subject to a CGT.  He then keeps repeating this lie even though he is told repeatedly that his claim is not true.  Cunliffe hesitates in the middle of a debate before answering because he wants to be absolutely sure.  The lie is rewarded and the caution is condemned.  Armstrong thinks that this could be a turning point in the campaign.  How all the news of the sleaze emanating from the Prime Minister’s office can be trumped by a moment of caution is beyond me.

And I wasted precious minutes of my remaining life by reading Vernon Small’s latest article.  He remarked on how on the campaign trail the seemingly trivial can take on huge meaning and then proceeded to talk about exceedingly trivial events.  Such as the colour of one’s scarf.  And that his staff may not watch Masterchef.  And the election should be determined by the number of selfies each leader generates.  A less satisfying contribution to the MSM discourse on the election campaign I cannot imagine.

After a few weeks of righteous outrage over Dirty Politics it seems that some in the media are falling back into old habits.  But don’t let them fool you.  As even National concede this election is poised on a knife edge and will be fought vote by vote.  If we want a change from this particularly vile business as usual then there has to be a change of government.

139 comments on “Two weeks to go …”

  1. dale 1

    It has been the most vile campaign in my memory. The voters have rejected the smear from the left. The kiwis I hang out with here in Perth cringe at whats going on. We’re all voting national, even those that would normally vote labour. KDC has darkened this election.

    • Kat 1.1

      You remind me of what American voters did in the early days of Watergate by voting Nixon back in on a landslide, only for him to be the first president to resign shortly afterwards.

    • mickysavage 1.2

      Wow I take it you have not read the book or read the papers or watched TV recently.

      • Anne 1.2.1

        @ dale
        So the Kiwi voters in Perth have collectively reduced the IQ average of the city by at least 10%? I’m reminded of Rob’s mob in the 1970s. Never was there a bunch of ignorant, loudmouthed, mentally challenged hoodlums like that mob. And guess who was one of their ring- leaders? Yes, John Slater… Cameron Slater’s father. Like father like son.

    • Draco T Bastard 1.3

      The vileness is all National – and you’re voting for the corrupt fuckers.

      • Tigger 1.3.1

        The same ones who vote National will be pretending the didn’t when Key is done for conspiracy and corruption. ‘I never trusted him’, they’ll say.

        Sheeple.

      • Tracey 1.3.2

        Amazing how often the first reply is a diversion comment

        • Sanctuary 1.3.2.1

          Yeah, once I thought it was fanciful that National might run paid concerned trolls. Now, after “Dirty Politics”, I don’t think any low down, sneaky and secret dirty trick is beyond National.

          Perhaps the Standard needs to tighten up on moderation on obvious diversion trolling?

    • Tracey 1.4

      Parrotting hootons line… Doesnt make it so. If you believe that you should vote against National. It is they who, having a chance to stop his PR, didnt and instead used him as their pin up policy for buying a life in NZ

      DP is..

      Not about left or right, but about standards, accuracy, fairness…

    • DS 1.5

      As Winston Churchill put it, the best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter.

      If you want to vote for a government that is as incompetent as it is corrupt, be my guest. Being in Perth you won’t have to live with the consequences.

    • disturbed 1.6

      We counter Dale and our communication on the east coast shows Many are appalled at JK involvement in a black op’s undercover smear campaign against opposition MPs.

      They will never vote for National and their ilk while Key’s mob keep defending the dirty politics operation, and don’t move to fix the corruption steaming from it.

      Strange the National have been involved with dirty politics for 7+ yrs so why is Dale in Australia when She/he could be here enjoying the corruption going on? Another NatZ diversion?

      • disturbed 1.6.1

        Do any of you remember pre-2008 election, Aunty Helen said on TV one night I reflection,
        ” I feel the whole political system in NZ is changing.”
        Either it was 2007 or early 2008.

        Does anyone remember that? Would Helen have been referring to the emergence of “Dirty politics” that was when it was reportedly beginning right?

        Would be good to get her feedback on it I will send her an email at the U.N. and ask her, ha ha.

        • karol 1.6.1.1

          No. Had a look for it.

          But found this. Clark’s speech announcing an election date in 2008.

          Clearly not enough people were paying attention:

          This election is a choice between a government which has shown it can make the tough choices and an opposition which flip flops on almost every major issue which emerges.

          It is an election between a government which takes principled positions and an opposition which says what it thinks the audience in front of it wants to hear.

          It is an election about who can be trusted to take our nation ahead to a prosperous and confident 21st century, where all our families and communities can thrive.

          In this campaign we in Labour will be talking about our vision for the future of New Zealand.

          Labour is ambitious for New Zealand. National is ambiguous.
          […]
          I will be asking New Zealanders to cast a positive vote for a future they can trust.

          Nothing is more important. A lot is at stake for New Zealand families. The policies our families, young and old, have come to rely on are seriously at risk.

          National has attacked every major Labour policy aimed at making life better for New Zealanders.
          […]
          It’s clear that National and its leader cannot be trusted with the future of New Zealand.

          New Zealanders have everything to lose from electing a party which won’t tell the truth about its policies and wants to put the clock back.

          I look forward to fighting this election campaign.

          The future of New Zealand is at stake.

          Labour has shown through its record in office that we can be trusted with the future of New Zealand.

          National’s evasiveness, flip flops, and secret agendas show that it can’t be trusted.

          • Tracey 1.6.1.1.1

            and their theme? trust.

            I cant believe more trust nats today than in 2008

            • karol 1.6.1.1.1.1

              Many of us could see back then that Team Key was just not trustworthy…. and yet, we have had 6 years of “this highly popular” PM…. and now, it’s all exposed in Dirty Politics, and some just don;t want to hear it.

    • Chaff 1.7

      Yes. I am temporarily living in Canberra, had dinner last night with some Australians who were (surprisingly to me) very clued up on the ‘soap dramas’ of our general election. The sentiment echoed the ‘if you pitched it to Hollywood they would tell you no-one would believe it’ line. They knew a lot about KDC, Dirty Politics etc and certainly felt it was a poor reflection on the opposition, vice the govt.

      Don’t shoot this messenger.

      • susannact 1.7.1

        1.7 Chaff. And next the trolls will send in people who were havingdinner parties in London, Trinidad, Texas,………..yadah, yadah, yadah.

      • miravox 1.7.2

        Australians voted in Abbott. Hmmm so we should take comments out of Canberra seriously?

      • Murray Olsen 1.7.3

        “a poor reflection on the opposition, vice the govt.”

        What does that even mean?

    • Morrissey 1.8

      This dope has not read the book.

    • newsense 1.9

      not the ones I know in Perth buddy. Been voting for Clive Palmer have we?

    • Murray Olsen 1.10

      Perth – where the stupidest people in the town have the highest incomes. I’ve heard that, and your posts suggests it is probably true. I’ll make it easy for you (but probably not easy enough):
      1. You cannot smear with facts.
      2. Slater and his group who wrote all the emails, are not from the left.
      3. The book and the revelations in it have nothing to do with KDC.
      4. Get Aussie citizenship. You won’t even need the operation.

    • word 1.11

      Lol youre kidding right Dale? youre blaming labour for the corrupt actions and words of national and their cohorts in crime… Seriously??
      Please say you dont tell people in Oz you’re a NZer, you’re a cringeworthy embarrassment.

  2. Kat 2

    “If we want a change from this particularly vile business as usual then there has to be a change of government”.

    Unfortunately for Green and IMP supporters the stark reality is if Labour fails to cross the 30% mark then neither parties will be anywhere near govt. There just has to be a lift in Labour support to achieve a right bloc defeat.

    Somewhere some tactical voting is going to have to happen, either in casting an electorate vote or party vote.

    • AmaKiwi 2.1

      How many people do you know who rely 100% on their cell phone and don’t have a land line? A lot more than 3 years ago.

      These are the people who are not being polled. Their profile makes them highly likely to vote LEFT.

      From what I hear, see, and read on social media, Labour/Green are well ahead of the Nats now.

      • Kiwiri 2.1.1

        And many of us who have cellphones do not answer calls from numbers because we screen through them to see whether they leave messages about who they are and what they want.

        • Kiwiri 2.1.1.1

          insert: from numbers we do not recognise because we screen through them

          sorry, was typing fast.

      • Grantoc 2.1.2

        Maybe. They may also vote to the right. Or they may not vote at all, and this seems the most probable scenario

        Many of these voters appear not to have registered yet. I believe that there are less younger voters registered currently for this election than what there were for the last election. No registration no vote.

        I’d be concerned about relying too heavily on a boost in the left vote from this group.

    • Maz 2.2

      I’m in the Te Taihauauru electorate Kat. Tariana Turia won this seat by thousands last election. Labour candidate Adrian Ruwhare believes the polls don’t reflect how very close Labour is to overturning this seat….let’s hope so!

    • “If we want a change from this particularly vile business as usual then there has to be a change of government”.

      No. There has to be a much wider change. NZ’s traditional elites are no longer fit for purpose and they all have to go, every single last one of them starting with the crusty hacks that infest the news media. I don’t want them to reform or to see the light, I simply want them pensioned off.

      It’s the same everywhere. Sclerotic elites who just won’t eff the hell off.

  3. Naki man 3

    Labour is the only party that is sliding in the polls. Cunliffe doesn’t even know the policy that he wrote. Then he starts making shit up about people having one month to sell their parents house without paying CGT. Cunliffe cant just make shit up and get away with it.

    • weka 3.1

      lol, did you say that without a trace of irony?

    • dv 3.2

      A small but relevant point Key asked about a HOME in a trust NOT the FAMILY home.

    • word 3.3

      Who said the polls are true anyway? there are no doubts that national are using polls as electioneering tools.
      And what about John key then Naki? John key has been making shit up for the last 6 years, and he got away with it until now, but Sept 20 just might dish out the punishment that he so deserves.

  4. Blue 4

    I find the media’s commentary frankly unbelieveable.

    I would love to see David Cunliffe test Key’s memory for fine policy detail, but I can’t because National have hardly any policies and no detail on what they do have.

    John Key is going through the campaign getting to talk (and lie) endlessly about Labour’s policies and never say a word about his own party’s plan.

    Key has presented no vision for New Zealand. The campaign is just ‘TeamKey’ cult of personality and ‘nothing to see here, move along, three more years please’.

    At the moment it feels like screaming at the top of your lungs ‘Hello! Are there any journalists out there!’ and receiving only an echo confirming that the wilderness is indeed empty.

    • dv 4.1

      I would like some one to ask Key
      1 Who is going to look after/teach the classes while those experts are out helping other schools.
      and
      2 What is the budget for that.

    • Colonial Viper 4.2

      I agree with all your points, Blue. A lot of people continue to vote National not because they are inspired to – as you point out there literally is nothing about National which is inspiring either in policies or people – but because they perceive no other credible government in waiting on offer from the Left. Much of that is down to the overarching, concentrated power of the corporate MSM. They set the narrative, the boundaries of discussion, and move the focus of the public to where they want it.

      • AmaKiwi 4.2.1

        The capital gains tax scares people who own property, who are also the people who have landlines and get polled.

      • disturbed 4.2.2

        100% corrupt Murdock Owns most Australasian press and shovels shit so everyone is dumbed down.

        Time to break up corporate press hold on on minds.

      • Peter 4.2.3

        Sad , but true!

      • Sanctuary 4.2.4

        “…Much of that is down to the overarching, concentrated power of the corporate MSM…”

        ZB were back to using Farrar and Slater as a primary political news source today in anti-Labour stories, while TV3 used John Key as a commentator on IMP policy.

        • karol 4.2.4.1

          Though TV3 also did have a story about Bill English with no new ideas and offering a block of cheese tax cut in X number of years.

          And the old clip of John key talking about Cullen’s “block of cheese” tax cut was interesting.

    • blue leopard 4.3

      +1 Well said Blue

      • Sanctuary 4.3.1

        Ah, but will John Armstrong base two anti-National opinion pieces on English’s slip up? 🙂

    • I find the media’s commentary frankly unbelievable.

      Really? Looking at who it is coming from, I find it quite believable. The Woman’s Day has better journalists than most “serious” papers.

    • Thinker 4.5

      I watched the Christchurch Press leaders debate this week, and National DOES have policies. Two, in particular.

      1. We are ‘on the cusp’ of ‘something’ that will be good for ordinary kiwis. If we vote National. And…

      2. There might be a tax cut, sometime, for low and middle income earners. But, it wouldn’t be much. Somewhere up to $10 but not more than $30.

      Both of those are supposedly very good reasons why people who might be persuaded to vote for Labour’s progressive economy/end to trickle-down politics ought to think again, and continue to keep the status-quo, where many top-earners avoid tax, because NZ is one of the few countries still without a CGT.

      Now – repeat after me…

      NZ is ‘on the cusp’ of ‘something’, and

      $10 tax cuts fow low/middle earners, Good – CGT for the wealthy, Bad.

  5. Colonial Viper 5

    The Centre and the Left, which together purport to serve the interests of 95%+ of the people, is still disconnected with huge numbers of voters.

    Anywhere from 43% to 48% of voters are going to go National this year. Hundreds of thousands will stay home.

    So more screeds of policy detail is not it. Slamming the obvious malfeasance of the Right is not it. Pointing out the ridiculous antics and cronyism of Key and his Ministers is not it. Pandering to the MSM is not it.

    So, WTF.

    • weka 5.1

      what do you think should be done?

      I’m not convinced yet that there will be a low voter turnout, but if Labour and the GP are doing something different to get out the vote, they’re keeping pretty quiet about it (compared to say IMP).

      • Colonial Viper 5.1.1

        “what do you think should be done”

        Unfortunately I have very little power to do anything or implement anything at this stage of the game, beyond looking after my part of the machine in my electorate.

        Longer term, the current Left culturally and socially do not connect with roughly 2M voters (including those who do not turnout); those same voters when polled generally dislike high levels of inequality, see the need for a strong public health and education system etc but cannot see themselves being properly represented by those on the left as it stands.

        • weka 5.1.1.1

          Sure, but do you think that’s an issue of the policies not being right, or the communication not being right, or something else?

          “Longer term, the current Left culturally and socially do not connect with roughly 2M voters (including those who do not turnout)”

          I’m not sure it’s useful to frame it in that way. There will always be people who vote on the right, so stating that the left isn’t connecting with 2M voters is misleading. As for the rest… I’m going to go see if I can find that research on why people in NZ don’t vote.

          The cultural/social one worries me. I’m afraid of how much of that is we now expect to vote for our own interests. And how we shift the centre left again.

          • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.1.1

            I’m not sure it’s useful to frame it in that way. There will always be people who vote on the right, so stating that the left isn’t connecting with 2M voters is misleading

            Misleading in what way? I think it frames the problem very well. I can offer this alternative framing:

            The Left believes that them being in government is better for 95%+ of people. But most of those same people disagree.

            To me, that’s it in a nutshell.

            • weka 5.1.1.1.1.1

              “Misleading in what way? I think it frames the problem very well”

              In the way I explained in my comment.

              You seemed to be implying that everyone in NZ should vote on the left. Is that what you really believe?

          • Tom Jackson 5.1.1.1.2

            Look, if people want this crap, then let them have it. The only reason I am voting this time is that I don’t like the recently revealed corruption, but if New Zealanders vote this lot back in again with everything that has gone on, then they deserve everything they get, and no co-operation or respect from those of us who didn’t.

        • Anne 5.1.1.2

          100% with you CV. Good policy but often wrongly presented – Super policy is a good example. Much of it is too complicated and wordy and made easy for misconstruction by the enemy – see CGT policy. Too much pandering to the MSM. Look at Winston Peters. Never panders to them yet he’s holding his own. Too much soft selling of Labour generally – the pundits out there are not intellectuals. They like the hard talking, tough guy image. You don’t have to lie, cheat and practice dirty politics. Look at Helen Clark – she was one tough cookie but she never lied or cheated.

          • Draco T Bastard 5.1.1.2.1

            Much of it is too complicated and wordy and made easy for misconstruction by the enemy – see CGT policy.

            That’s cropped up around here a few times over the last few years. Instead of having simple, easy to understand policies like those on the right the left tend to think about the problems and then try to explain the complexity. Of course, that does bring up this quote:

            For every problem there is a solution which is simple, clean and wrong.

            They like the hard talking, tough guy image. You don’t have to lie, cheat and practice dirty politics.

            QFT

            • Ant 5.1.1.2.1.1

              I don’t think it’s lefty thoughtfulness, it’s because they are still playing to National’s tune. Letting them define the terms of the debate.

              They’re pretty much getting trolled, all this talk of David Parker costing things and this and that detail is all due to Keys “show me the money”.

              They’ve let National set up the conditions for the conversation, they need to realise that even if they have detail or costings Key or Joyce will just come up with some outlier interpretation or exaggerated figures and argue it anyway.

              It sets up an unrealistic expectation of what an opposition party can achieve without the tools of government to develop policy. Now Labour have to adhere to that unrealistic expectation.

          • Colonial Viper 5.1.1.2.2

            the verbose over-intellectualising complexity gets me. No one likes a smart ass. Says a guy who spent around a decade in tertiary education. There is something about the “hard talking, tough guy image” yes, I would add straight shooting too. Or at least, Kiwi voters prefer that to uncertain, hesitant, apologists who won’t proudly stand by what they believe in.

          • disturbed 5.1.1.2.3

            !00% Anne,

            CV. don’t be so bruising.

            We are the caring lot not those nastier lot.

            Please we are representing a kinder gentler caring Government that we want them to be right?

            David Cunliffe should have wiped that CGT thing off at source by saying;

            “We will finalise those details in continuity to other models used overseas, and details will be made later.”

            Smarter still,

            David Cunliffe only had to copy Key but saying,
            “O/k I will also ask you, what have you signed us up to in the TPPA, can you answer that Mr Prime minister”?

            David simply froze as Key threw it from right field.

            It showed lack of seasoned slimy political swerve capability to deflect it off him.
            Admirable as David is an honest person, not a diversionary beast that many others are.

            Key is a master and Winston is a very smooth careful responder and a King that we need to combat the slimy other. Hope Winston & David can work together.

          • Lanthanide 5.1.1.2.4

            I honestly can’t name a single NZFirst policy.

      • Maz 5.1.2

        I’m not convinced of a low voter turnout either Weka. Facebook followers are banding together in ways never seen before; to discount, negate, refute and ignore the propaganda from the right, their followers and the mainstream media. It’s a bastion where the government and mainstream media have no control over what we read and say…and thank goodness for that!

    • Lanthanide 5.2

      It doesn’t make any sense to me either, CV. The best explanation I can come up with is that people are simply star-struck by John Key and genuinely aren’t looking past his shallow veneer of down-to-earth shuckterism charm.

      There are lots of theories about what Labour is supposedly doing wrong, but I honestly don’t know what they should be doing differently, apart from not be going up against Key.

  6. dale 6

    I wouldn’t waste my time reading Hagars crap. How any of you can justify theft is beyond me. You all go on about the sis and gcsb spying. Cant you see the hypocrisy. The msm is desperate to change the government, just see what Katy Bradford said yesterday. Stuff still has the headline “Nats slipping in polls. Gloss coming off Key”. Then theres tv3, national radio and radio live. So yes micky I do keep up with whats going on. Sometimes looking from the outside in focuses the mind. Anyway gonna have a bunch of expats from all sides over on election day for a bbq. Keep up the good work and vote positive. I am.

    • Draco T Bastard 6.1

      I wouldn’t waste my time reading Hagars crap.

      It’s not crap. It’s the truth as shown by the evidence. You don’t like the truth though as it gets in the way of your preferred delusion. This pic sums you up perfectly:

      https://twitter.com/shaantweetiepie/status/507371611884773376/photo/1

      How any of you can justify theft is beyond me.

      Nothing was stolen – Slater still has his emails. Everyone else does as well and thus they get to see the corruption that National engages in.

      The msm is desperate to change the government, just see what Katy Bradford said yesterday.

      One reporter maybe but the rest are trying very hard to bring back National by hiding their corruption from the general populace.

      Keep up the good work and vote positive. I am.

      You’ve already told us that you’re voting for more corruption. That’s not what most people would call positive.

    • Tracey 6.2

      High Court thought it was of public interest… Funny that, you know, given they are impartial.

    • RedLogix 6.3

      I wouldn’t waste my time reading Hagars crap.

      You have to love it when they even refuse to look.

      Besides the book is not what Hager wrote – it’s what National and it’s cronies have written that’s the real crud.

      Which is of course why cowards like dale cannot bring themselves to read it. Nor I’d think any of his gutless mates at this bbq.

    • ianmac 6.4

      @Dale:”I wouldn’t waste my time reading Hagars crap.”
      You do know that the crap is what Slater and the National writers wrote. It is not Nick’s. Nicky Hager is just reporting what the Right did.

  7. b waghorn 7

    Kiwis wanted MMP now when we have a chance to put it to work for us they let a greasy con man scare them onto going to one main party and a couple of props. GROW UP NZ

    • Granted 7.1

      I never voted for MMP. And I am not prepared to risk voting for a coalition that shows no sign of stability. Who knows what policies that are touted at the moment will actually come to fruition? If the Greens and Labour have differences there will be a series of trade-offs.

      I am all grown up and will be voting for stability. Hugging of Dotcom has hurt the left in my opinion.

      I do not trust Cunliffe and I find the Greens to be a party of activists who have no idea of the real world.

      • JanM 7.1.1

        All grown up, you reckon? It’s only babies that need security blankets.

        • Granted 7.1.1.1

          Some people can not help them selves by making cynical smarmy comments. We are all entitled to our own opinions and beliefs.
          I am certainly not trying to force my opinion on anyone else.

          When you do grow up you might just realise that my vote has the same weighting as your vote.

          Save your name calling for someone else who of course does not deserve it

          • JanM 7.1.1.1.1

            grownups don’t throw tantrums either

          • Draco T Bastard 7.1.1.1.2

            We are all entitled to our own opinions and beliefs.

            No, actually, you’re not:

            The problem with “I’m entitled to my opinion” is that, all too often, it’s used to shelter beliefs that should have been abandoned. It becomes shorthand for “I can say or think whatever I like” – and by extension, continuing to argue is somehow disrespectful. And this attitude feeds, I suggest, into the false equivalence between experts and non-experts that is an increasingly pernicious feature of our public discourse.

            • Granted 7.1.1.1.2.1

              Hahahaha….thats so funny!!! Lets stop democracy now. People should not be allowed to think for themselves.

              your comment is “unhinged”.

              • Draco T Bastard

                People should think for themselves but they should base their thoughts upon facts rather than beliefs. It is your comments that are unhinged because you place belief above fact.

                • Tracey

                  Bravo and well said. Nats are laughing so hard right now, but not at the left, at the people who continue to buy their drivel.

                  Only two weeks ago, dirty politics was a dont read because it was conspiracy and lies… Different version last week… But people like Granted dont notice cos he would have to accept he was duped. Seems many right voters would rather look foolish than be wrong.

      • tc 7.1.2

        ‘Stability’ = selling out our soverignty, land and assets whilst borrowing billions and narrowing the economy in your world then. Cogitate on where that takes us.

      • Lloyd 7.1.3

        Unfortunately the Nats and Act and the Conservatives have much less understanding of the real world than the Greens. You just have to look at the way they have dealt with the slow disaster of global warming to see that the right-wingers either don’t understand that scientists who study the climate really mean what they say or that the Natzis are far too interested in short term outcomes to be trusted to be left in charge of a small public company, let alone a country.
        The only outcome from the continuation of the disaster of the present government is greater inequality and instability, with poor response to the need for action by the government to the problems of the real world.
        Granted, your inability to see this essential truth is called cognitive dissonance, and I think there are a large number of complacent “middle of the road” New Zealanders that suffer from this problem.
        If you think that the Greens and Labour will make an unstable mix, what has National/ACT been?

  8. dale 8

    I wouldn’t all Kim dot con greasy. Fat rotten nazi maybe.

    • Draco T Bastard 8.1

      And that just proves how childish you are.

    • Tracey 8.2

      Makes you wonder why the Nats fell overthemselves to get him PR

    • Lloyd 8.3

      One thing surprises people about capitalists – They don’t all think the same way. And they aren’t always correct. Just because most of the capitalists in the country are willing to quietly help Donkey tilt the table their way doesn’t mean a new capitalist on the block can’t tilt the table in another direction for his own self-interest. I must admit I don’t trust any of them……

  9. Karen 9

    Spent the morning delivering leaflets while feeling incredibly angry, having read the Herald before I left. Thanks for the heads up on Vernon Small – I will avoid reading that piece so that I don’t end up raging all afternoon when I need to be phone canvassing.

    The Herald has been particularly bad this week, highlighting any slip from Cunliffe and acting as if now Key has sacked Collins everything is all wonderful with National. I notice that they are also promoting the Conservatives whenever possible. They know the Nats will need a coalition partner, but don’t want Winston who will be demanding a Royal Commission into their dirty dealings. I suspect this would end up being embarrassing for the Herald – the Donghua Liu story for instance.

    Writing letters to the editor is the only thing we can do, plus of course working hard for a change in government.

    • Acting up 9.1

      I was at the Newlands community centre when David Cunliffe paid a visit. I saw Vernon amongst all the other media – he seemed a little bored to be in a community centre on a rainy, gloomy, foggy Newlands morning, at 10am on a working week. Must be a bit grim to have to head out to places where ordinary people meet up, outside the Wellington beltway, I suppose.

      David seemed to enjoy talking with people, and mucking in with the food prep. People seemed to appreciate him being there. I reckon a few more votes going from Dunne to Ginny Andersen, the Labour candidate.

      I think there was a plan for David to head to the J’Ville mall to do the meet and greet – maybe even get some selfies!! But the j’ville mall management came over all non-political all of a sudden. Wonder if they would have done the same if John Key said he was turning up for his triennial chance to meet the ordinary public.

      By the way, haven’t seen Key in the Ohariu electorate yet, despite the fact that his face is planted over all the billboards, to the exclusion of whoever the local national candidate is. Maybe has the faith in his local sock puppet to carry the day.

      • karol 9.1.1

        Interesting. Taking selfies with a “celebrity” politician, is a superficial exercise, and hardly an activity I would associate with left wing values. Having a party leader mucking in along side people engaged in community activities, feels very positive to me.

        Vernon Small’s piece promotes shallow values.

      • Rosie 9.1.2

        Hi Acting up.

        Can you clarify something please. Did J Mall deny entry to David Cunliffe and the team? If so, can you let me know what was said, if you know, and I will contact them and request to see their written policy on not allowing political activity on their site.

        Dependent on the outcome of that I would let them know that I would expect that they would also deny entry to Key or Dunne.

        I’d also let them know they are denying the public an opportunity to meet and speak with candidates, which is very anti democratic of them.

        Going by the hostile and freaked out response I received from the senior staff member at Paper Plus in J Mall (especially when I raised the bit about Dunne on p 81 and 83) where I purchased Dirty Politics, the ongoing absolute lack of coverage in the local rag, the Independent Herald of anything to do with our candidates (despite my request they cover it and question about why they weren’t) I suspect Dunne has a long time association with businesses in the area and they may be willing to support him in ways that aren’t acceptable or fair, such as barring opposition leaders and candidates from their “property”

  10. b waghorn 10

    Was talking ad out honest john Dale

  11. Tautoko Viper 11

    @Dale.
    Wilful ignorance:
    The practice or act of intentional and blatant avoidance, disregard or disagreement with facts, empirical evidence and well-founded arguments because they oppose or contradict your own existing personal beliefs.
    http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=willful%20ignorance&defid=1203366

  12. AB 12

    People vote National to protect their private wealth – however meagre that wealth may be. Principle doesn’t come into it.
    That’s how you get a party which truly represents the interests of the top 5% getting 45% of the votes. That and a well-funded and organised spin and smear machine – as we are seeing

    • Rich 12.1

      I’m not sure it’s even the top 5%. Less than 1% would be my suspicion. Of course its paid representatives such as Slater and some of the Herald journalists also have an interest in maintaining their income stream but that’s easily turned off too. Short termism.

      But I agree with your point. Just about all the small parties represent a larger part of the electorate than National does.

  13. dale 13

    Yes it was a joke. But insinuating that 45%plus of the voting public have been conned is an insult that wont swing anyone your way. Should have listened to your leader and remained positive. Nasty just doesn’t work when the majority of voters feel the country is headed in the right direction. Labour had nine years because the votes felt good about the country and its direction. Hagar has much to answer for dont you think?

    • Tracey 13.1

      how would you know, you havent read it

    • weka 13.2

      “45%plus of the voting public”

      Don’t know if you are stupid, or disingenuous, or an outright smear merchant, but it’s not 45% of the voting public. Do the actual maths.

  14. feijoa 14

    I would like to see SOMEONE ask John Key

    -Are you going to privatise ACC
    – are you going to cut funding to DOC
    – Are you going to cut funding or change the public health system
    – how much of a loss has EQC made
    – are they going to sell off Kiwibank

    any more questions

    The lack of policy from the Nats is a little frightening ….

    • yeshe 14.1

      can you promise to leave untouched the Cullen superannuation fund ?

      can you promise not to increase gst ?

      (We know how his promises worked out last time but worth trying to find out !)

    • Granted 14.2

      Great questions for all parties!!

    • disturbed 14.3

      Sell the Kiwirail?

      They are broke underfunded & $200 million loss this year, and are now chopping up wagons for scrap steel now just for money when they lack rolling stock.

      They deliberately run it down by starving of funds.

      Now as all our roads are clogged with trucks, our roads are unsafe and the maintainence bill is astronomical and crippling our ratepayers and taxpayers as fuel taxes are increasing.

      NZ is going to hell in a hand basket Dale don’t come back, as its a mess under your wonderful NatZ mob.

    • miravox 14.4

      how much has health funding decreased in real terms?

    • Hanswurst 14.5

      Recent history suggests that Key would give the answers that he thinks his audience wants to hear (As in: No, no, no, not much, no), and not be too worried about being punished if he reneges on any “promises” made. I put “promises” in inverted commas, because his answers will be couched in unequivocal language, like this (entirely fabricated) example: “Look, we’re not ever gonna cut funding for DOC’s core activity, which is protecting our natural scenery and biodiversity, but at the end of the day, you’ve got to balance that against what ordinary New Zealanders need, and there’s two issues here. One is the Resource Management Act, and we’ve looked to make things easier for first-home buyers by rezoning more land residential in Auckland than Labour did in nine years of government. The other is harnessing our natural resources like coal and oil, and we’d look on a case-by-case basis at doing that, but in the end of course there’d need to be a solid argument that didn’t involve mortgaging our natural environment.”

      If such a statement were made in a debate, however, it would not be useful for Cunliffe to ask what John Key is trying to achieve with completely meaningless statements like “mortage our natural environment”, or question the relevance of the two factoids to the question, since it would lead to getting mired in a discussion about pointless minutiae. Looking at that sort of stuff is the responsibility of journalists, and it needs to be done over time, by identifying the issues framed within the political discourse and attempting to elucidate exactly how policymakers and commentators address them. Just putting one-off questions to John Key won’t address that, no matter how incisive those questions are.

    • Lanthanide 14.6

      National said prior to the last budget that there wouldn’t be any more state asset sails because there aren’t any left worth selling.

  15. DS 15

    I think a useful starting point is this: if you didn’t vote National in 2011 (after the collapse of ACT, and Key getting a massive swing in the aftermath of the Christchurch Earthquake), you won’t vote National in 2014. So National’s highwater mark is 47.3%. The only question is how far do they drop.

    Given that almost every poll prior to 2011 had National at 50%+, and they wound up getting a mere 47%, I think as a rough calculation, we can take 5-10% off National’s poll ratings, which leaves them somewhere in the low to mid 40s. If Colin Craig and NZ First do well enough over the next couple of weeks, they could conceivably knock National to sub-40.

    Labour’s problem is that the anti-National voters aren’t going to it. They’re going to NZ First and the Greens (and to Colin Craig). I think Labour at the moment is on track to get what it did last time.

    So, you’d end up with a very diverse Parliament: something like National 41%, Labour 27%, Greens 16%, NZ First 8%, Colin Craig 5%, Internet-Mana 3%, plus a motley bag of electorate seats for the Maori Party, United Future, and ACT. I don’t think we’ll have a Government on election night.

    • dv 15.1

      Ok how about Craig on 5.1% on election night
      And 4.99% on final.

    • weka 15.2

      “Labour’s problem is that the anti-National voters aren’t going to it.”

      It’s only a problem because they’re stuck in FPP thinking and have spurned a pan left govt approach.

      Good point about election night.

  16. disturbed 16

    This election now needs to be about electing a government which is TRUSTWORTHY and has INTEGRITY and CARES ABOUT PEOPLE BEFORE PROFIT

  17. Tautoko Viper 17

    I am feeling somewhat better about this election knowing that if the worst happens and National do by some chance get back in with the help of NZ First, they are not going to be able to implement their most extreme policies plus there would be a full commission of inquiry into the Hager book revelations. This would be double payback for the Nats and a silver lining around the dark cloud. If the polls have been rigged, then as long as we get out the vote, then all will be ok.

  18. dale 18

    Three more years three more years.

    • Macro 18.1

      2 weeks a long time in politics….
      National will not get enough to govern alone Dunne and and Act are the only ones whom Key can honestly call upon, and Dunne could well loose. Only 2000 votes last time and he has pissed a lot off over the last 3 years, and a good candidate against him. Epsom is anyone’s guess – will the idiots there vote for a 3rd Act MP after the disasters of the last 2? And Act is not polling much above 0.5% so Seymour (even if he is elected) will not bring in another on his coat tails.
      Maori Party may be lucky to get back in. Annette Sykes is pushing Flavell hard and again he holds less than 2000 vote majority. Also the polling for MP is less than 1% so he will be unlikely to bring extras in should he succeed.
      Craig will not succeed – Conservatives polling is well under 5%
      So it’s NOT all beer and skittles for National of winning this by a long way – the Party is very unhappy with Key and his minions. The faithful are holding their noses and voting blue – but many will stay away or vote Winston.
      I wouldn’t place too much hope on Winston going with National either. There is more to NZ First other than Winston now, and they have policies that do not accord with the lassie faire policies of National. I would expect NZ first to sit on the cross benches.
      In which case it will be a minority government either Left or Right. And that will result in the end in an early election.

  19. Chloe O'Brien 19

    Nicky Hager’s ‘Dirty Politics’ has already overshadowed half of the election campaign and I like many other Kiwis are getting sick and tired of hearing about it. I probably will never read it, so instead I just fall victim to the media and its take on the book.

    However, if all these dirty tactics are what’s really going on in parliament and between ministers how can we feel proud of our government? How are young people supposed to want to vote when all they see is nastiness and corrupt politicians? I for one feel completely turned off, even John Key and David Cunliffe’s responses to the issues brought up by the book have been woeful.

    All the fuss has even brought Dame Anne Salmond out to make comment, in a recent article she said:

    “We have the right to live in a democracy where our leaders do not lie to us, or abuse their powers, or strip away our freedoms. They need to represent what’s best, not what’s worst about New Zealand. We are entitled to feel proud and confident about the way we’re governed, not embarrassed and ashamed.”

    I couldn’t agree more. My question to all you intelligent and open minded individuals is this, who is prepared to take a stand to clean up all the dirt? Lets get it out in the open so we as citizens of New Zealand can actually make well informed decisions about who we want running our country. #independent #high-level #inquiry

  20. disturbed 20

    Dale here’s you hoping we don’t see you back here, or maybe you are just a NatZ paid mole or paid by one of those rich asseholes who are manipulating the polls as you appear to be doing.

    Oh by the way I am more worldly than you think you are, I spent many years living in five countries including Africa us Canada UK & western Australia my friend.

    Read how many countries are involved in election poll manipulation and then you know that what you are seeing or hearing is coming from the Murdock MSM or other corporate media.

    Must say that my brother who lives in Australia has the reverse view to you and recognises Rupert Murdoch press spin is being now used on Kiwis as it was in the Australian elections.

    Now things are worse in Australia than when Labour was in power over there then.

    Most important when I returned finally to my birth place, NZ in 1999 we had a relatively corrupt free society but during the last seven years the NatZ since Key got on board before the 2008 elections the dirty politics campaign began with them not under Labour just remember that.

    NZ polls are manipulated.

    Corruption case to answer and a police investigation must be ordered by the opposition, here are some facts.

    A simple search last night of “Polls can be manipulated” – Google -found about 1,400,000 results.

    Below leaves us all now with the knowledge of what in New Zealand is actually going on, it is more corruption of our MSM conducting manipulated polling results, and opposition now must call this as it is, corruption of the MSM and manipulation of all polls.

    We were contacted Friday 22nd of August at 4pm by Herald Digipoll by a lady who first said we are conducting a poll and could we participate?

    We said yes, then she said my supervisor is listening in, is that o/k?

    I hesitated but agreed and she went through a ten minute questioning, and then abruptly said we don’t need your input thanks, and hung up!

    This left us so disturbed we searched the web and found all 1.4 million cases of poll manipulations globally on Goggle, which include what is called “selective polling”

    We believe we were a victim of a Herald Digipoll selective polling strategy.

    NZ pols are corrupted, is this a crime?

    This is just one case of the 1.4 million sites on Goggle in India which may show what is happening here in NZ.

    quote; http://www.ummid.com/news/2014/February/26.02.2014/opinion-poll-companies-exposed.html

    http://www.ummid.com/news/2014/February/26.02.2014/opinion-poll-companies-exposed.html

    New Delhi: Public opinion gathered by leading opinion poll agencies is often tweaked to give misleading results, Operation Prime Minister, a sting operation by a private news network, News Express, has revealed Tuesday. Well-known faces from leading opinion poll agencies have been caught on hidden camera agreeing to such malpractices.

    Operation Prime Minister shows how opinion polls are conducted and manipulated at the instance of political parties, their results traded to show a particular party in a favourable position, for a price. Presenting snippets from the sting operation at a press conference, Editor-in-chief of News Express, Vinod Kapri said, “Our motivation behind conducting the sting operation was a letter written by the Election Commission of India to all regional and national parties inviting their views on the publication of opinion polls.

    We wanted to investigate the concerns of the Commission.” In its letter dated 4 Oct, 2013, the Election Commission had said, “The Commission has been suggesting to the government that there should be a similar prohibition or restriction on opinion polls also as there could be several manipulated opinion polls which could impact the voting pattern.”

    Another motivation behind the sting operation was the mushrooming of opinion polls. “There used to be one or two opinion polls every election. But now, one sees an opinion poll almost every week. Which leads us to the question- how is the data generated so quickly and processed,” said Kapri

    “Operation Prime Minister has exposed eleven opinion poll agencies, whose surveys are published in leading newspapers and magazines besides being broadcast by leading news channels”, it was claimed in the sting opertaion.

    It demonstrates how the 810 million voters of our country are duped into believing trends or waves that are manipulated. – See more at:

    “Opinion polls seem to have become the latest weapon in the poll campaign.

    For a price, the prediction of seats tally can be changed to suit the interests of political parties.

    The agencies have no qualms accepting even black money for this purpose”,

    News Express claimed. The influence of opinion poll agencies goes beyond mere opinion polls. In some cases, the poll agencies have claimed they can even prop up dummy candidates in the constituencies where the rival candidate is on a strong wicket.

    It has also been claimed that some leading editors are hand in glove with these poll agencies.

    This is just a few of the 1.4 million sites on Goggle. – See more at:

    http://www.sciences360.com/index.php/statistics-16350/

    http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/471548/exit-polls-manipulated-modi-will-never-be-pm-samajwadi-party.html

    http://www.rediff.com/news/report/general-impression-that-opinion-polls-can-be-manipulated-sibal/20131109.htm
    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Many-agencies-manipulating-opinion-poll-projections-claims-sting-operation/articleshow/31013534.cms
    http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/2764415112001

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_statistics

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/mhp-furious-over-opinion-poll-manipulation-claims.aspx?pageID=238&nID=62184&NewsCatID=338

    copied non underlined

    http://www.ummid.com/news/2014/February/26.02.2014/opinion-poll-companies-exposed.html#sthash.wqSJ2ylu.dpuf

    http://www.sciences360.com/index.php/statistics-16350/

    http://www.ummid.com/news/2014/February/26.02.2014/opinion-poll-companies-exposed.html#sthash.h8rTzw8V.dpuf

    http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/471548/exit-polls-manipulated-modi-will-never-be-pm-samajwadi-party.html

    http://www.rediff.com/news/report/general-impression-that-opinion-polls-can-be-manipulated-sibal/20131109.htm

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Many-agencies-manipulating-opinion-poll-projections-claims-sting-operation/articleshow/31013534.cms

    http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/2764415112001
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_statistics
    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/mhp-furious-over-opinion-poll-manipulation-claims.aspx?pageID=238&nID=62184&NewsCatID=338

  21. TheContrarian 21

    Suddenly afflicted with a mass of indecision. Def Robertson for my electorate vote but my steadfast commitment to voting Green has been thrown into disarray.

    This is going to be tough

    • Rosie 21.1

      Out of curiosity Conty, what has happened to throw your steadfast commitment to party voting Green into disarray?

  22. Seti 22

    A discussion around the lunch table of a few blue collars at my firm indicated they would be unhappy at being forced into Kiwisaver and could not bring themselves to vote Labour again for this reason alone. I suspect this would not be an isolated view.

    • DS 22.1

      Compulsory Kiwisaver vs. a National Party that has been systematically cutting workplace rights and increasing taxes on lower incomes (GST).

      Any blue collar person voting for National is a turkey voting for Christmas.

      • Draco T Bastard 22.1.1

        Any blue collar person voting for National is a turkey voting for Christmas.

        Anybody who isn’t in the top 2% voting for National is a turkey voting for Christmas.

        • blue leopard 22.1.1.1

          +111 Draco & DS

        • Lanthanide 22.1.1.2

          I’m not in the top 2% and I’ve done ok under National. As one of my co-workers put it: vote for Labour, but at least if National get in it’ll just be more of the same.

        • Paul 22.1.1.3

          “Anybody who isn’t in the top 2% voting for National is a turkey voting for Christmas.”

          That’s a useful line…

      • Ergo Robertina 22.1.2

        Spot on, DS. When Key finally announces the ‘tax cut’ package/indication or whatever it is on Monday the journos should be asking whether it is enough to compensate for the hike in GST in 2010 that paid for tax cuts for the rich.

        • Wayne 22.1.2.1

          Ergo,

          Easy thing to say, but wrong.

          The tax package was carefully designed to ensure no one was worse off, that is there were rate reductions and threshold increases for the bottom tax rates. In fact the great bulk of the tax changes were aimed at middle income earners.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 22.1.2.1.1

            The design was a failure. Why are you defending the Cameron Slater party?

          • dv 22.1.2.1.2

            Yep Wayne Sucesss

            Current debt clock

            NZ$ 86,868,722,476

          • Macro 22.1.2.1.3

            The tax package was carefully designed to ensure no one was worse off,

            On Planet Key
            But here in NZ the result was different, but I don’t expect you to understand, or appreciate that fact as your world view is far removed from the reality of the majority of NZers who are by and large low income earners who are forced to spend spend all their income. Your fool yourselves with persistently using the mean or median income, whereas the mode more fairly represents the majority of the population in a heavily skewed population such as income rates.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skewness#mediaviewer/File:Comparison_mean_median_mode.svg

    • Lanthanide 22.2

      Labour hasn’t done a good job of indicating how people currently not in KS would be enrolled.

      They come in at a contribution rate of 1%, raising by 1% each year until they catch up with everyone else. The rate for everyone else raises by 0.25% per year until it reaches 4.5% (ie, 6 years until the increases stop).

      So those people not currently in KS won’t suddenly be paying 3% overnight, which is probably what they imagine.

      • Seti 22.2.1

        Yeah, but they know that 4.5% is coming, with the kicker that employers will probably offset wage increases against their own contributions.

        • Lanthanide 22.2.1.1

          Yeah, I’m not sure what happens with the current contributions holiday option under Labour’s plan, whether it remains exactly the same, or if they’re going to stop it or limit it in some way.

        • Rosie 22.2.1.2

          “with the kicker that employers will probably offset wage increases against their own contributions.”

          If this is the fear around the bosses way of dealing with paying kiwisaver contributions, then the workplace needs to organise around this at bargaining time if there is a collective agreement in the workplace. If there isn’t, if the workplace isn’t unionised, then it’s something folks may want to look into.

          A well negotiated collective agreement can formalise pay increases for every member as well as introduce a raft of other benefits. It’s well worth thinking about if there is anxiety about kiwisaver if a Labour coalition gets voted in.

          As for worker anxiety, that should greatly diminish under a Labour led government, so they need to look to the big picture rather than think about what they believe will be missing out on.

    • Rosie 22.3

      “They come in at a contribution rate of 1%, raising by 1% each year until they catch up with everyone else. The rate for everyone else raises by 0.25% per year until it reaches 4.5% (ie, 6 years until the increases stop).”

      It’s really important your workmates realise this Seti. As much as we don’t like being told what to do with our money, kiwisaver is the mechanism Labour is employing as the counter weight to taking the heat out if interest rates (correct folks?).

      With interest rates rising and rising in an uncontrolled manner your workmates will suffer far more with their mortgages and rent (if the landlord raises the rent in accordance with interest rate rises) going up. Some may even find themselves at risk of losing their house as the mortgage repayments get too much to bear.

      And in years to come they find they have a nice little nest egg that their employer has contributed half of.

  23. D'Esterre 23

    @ Chloe O’Brien: It’s really important that you read “Dirty Politics” before you vote. Don’t allow the MSM to tell you what you should think about it.
    Hager hasn’t made stuff up: he reports what Slater and co wrote, and reaches some conclusions based on the evidence.
    I was profoundly shocked by the book. Even though, like many, I’d suspected something underhand was going on, the ugliness Hager reports is like the difference between knowing that people die horribly in battle and actually seeing the mutilated corpses.
    For the life of me, I cannot imagine how anyone, having read this book, could bring themselves to vote for the current government. If there were any sort of moral compass on that side of the House, the lot of them would’ve stepped down as soon as the book was released. Every last one of ’em’s been contaminated by what’s been going on.
    Vote them out, say I, and put all other parties on notice that we won’t tolerate that sort of behavior in our politicians.

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