Ukraine as a Multi-Year war
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9:05 am, June 12th, 2022 - 20 comments
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The Russian war of aggression against the Ukraine is now three months old. Prepare for a very long grind.
Russian forces are now more successful having concentrated in much narrower areas. The idea of Ukraine pushing back Russia to original borders is now unthinkable.
But neither side are going to give up, neither side will stop, neither side want peace talks.
The United States isn’t going to achieve regime change in Russia because it doesn’t have the power to, and Europe is staying remarkably resolute too.
So this is going to go on for a long time.
Nor will the United States put boots on the ground, or enforce a No Fly Zone, or directly break Russia’s port blockade of Ukraine, when it would mean going up against a nuclear armed power.
Even if the two sides grind out to a stalemate with slowly shifting borders as appears to be happening, it isn’t going to end up like World War 1 in which either side completely collapses from exhaustion. Russia is doing great out of oil prices and has strong customers, and Ukraine will keep getting propped up by the United States and other military contributors.
So the multi-year long view needs talking about.
It is still likely that Finland and Sweden will be on the path to join NATO and Turkey’s objections are hammered into something the Swedes and Finns can live with and implement.
It is likely that global production of wheat, sunflower oil, and coal will be deeply lowered from Ukraine.
It is likely that the intelligence the United States and allies provided to Ukraine will enable effective aggressive defence by the Ukraine, but the cost in military and civilian lives will rise into the hundreds of thousands.
It is a strong opportunity for President Biden and others to re-state that international borders cannot be altered by force. With the war likely to drag all through this year, Biden will be turning himself more a more to his foreign affairs and Commander in Chief role since the Democrats are not likely to have control of the Senate or Congress from mid-November.
Biden would then be free to focus on China at both a trade and geostrategic level in particular reinforcing common ground with China of also sustaining internal territorial integrity. Biden has an opportunity to persuade China that they must agree at the United Nations to denounce Russia since it is altering international boundaries by force. Biden must change Xi’s mind and neither must be seen to do so. Biden needs to do a Nixon and front to China direct.
The EU’s willing cutoff of much Russian gas and most oil is a singularly powerful goal and one of the most important climate change moments we will ever have. Blunting the weapons of a future Russian economic war while continuing to enforce sanctions will continue to diminish the economy of Russia. Sure hope their energy systems can cope with another winter’s load come November, because on that rides much political support.
The EU and United States and allies like New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea, will need to continue massive financial support for the Ukraine to keep their society intact with basic goods and subsidies. Every one of those countries needs to accept more Ukrainian displaced refugees into their countries.
NATO could at least provide Ukraine with aircraft or heavy drones to sink the Russian blockade of its ports, protect merchant ships, and get the grain exports flowing again.
Russia is shortly going to start looking like an occupying force with a stable but hostile “boundary”. Something like the boundary to North Korea, with no actual peace settlement.
The long term test is for the EU to show how prosperous bordering members can be even if they are not members. Everything must be done to ensure Ukraine doesn’t give up.
Every one of the current supporter countries of Ukraine must forcefully make the case on every platform they can find that grisly and unprovoked invasions make the entire world less prosperous, often beset by famine and blackouts, and if you want a world framed by rules not tanks, here’s all the trade and grants and aid and prosperity you can handle: make the case for a multilateral and cooperative world once more.
For the Ukraine itself there is nothing but pitiless grind with lots of outside help.
But as a long term human morality tale in the use and benefit of international unity, I actually have a lot of confidence in current world leaders – including our own – that support for Ukraine can turn the long term view to good.
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- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Thirty six point PR spinThe Government’s ‘36 point’ plan for the next three months is as pointless as it is hollow. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Social housing off Government’s to-do listThe Coalition Government’s refusal to commit to ongoing funding for social housing is seeing the sector pull back on developments and families watch their dreams of securing a home fade away, says Labour Housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Less money in most people’s pockets this AprilChanges to minimum wage and benefit indexation means many New Zealanders will get less this year, as the Government gives a big tax break to landlords instead. ...3 weeks ago
- Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...4 hours ago - Government commits $20m to Westport flood protectionThe Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...10 hours ago
- Taupō takes pole positionThe Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...11 hours ago
- Cost of living support for low-income homeownersLocal Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...13 hours ago
- Government backing mussel spat projectThe Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...13 hours ago
- Government focused on getting people into workBenefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...16 hours ago
- Clean energy key driver to reducing emissionsThe Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...17 hours ago
- Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forwardThe Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...21 hours ago
- Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic PartnershipPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...1 day ago
- Government consults on extending coastal permits for portsRMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...2 days ago
- Inflation coming down, but more work to doToday’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...2 days ago
- School attendance restored as a priority in health adviceRefreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...2 days ago
- Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sectorOceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...2 days ago
- Patterson promoting NZ’s wool sector at International CongressAssociate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...3 days ago
- Removing red tape to help early learners thriveThe Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...3 days ago
- RMA changes to cut coal mining consent red tapeChanges to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...3 days ago
- McClay reaffirms strong NZ-China trade relationshipTrade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...3 days ago
- Prime Minister Luxon acknowledges legacy of Singapore Prime Minister LeePrime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...3 days ago
- PMs Luxon and Lee deepen Singapore-NZ tiesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...3 days ago
- Antarctica New Zealand Board appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...3 days ago
- Finance Minister travels to Washington DCFinance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...3 days ago
- Pet bonds a win/win for renters and landlordsThe coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...4 days ago
- Long Tunnel for SH1 Wellington being consideredState Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...4 days ago
- New Zealand condemns Iranian strikesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel. “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says. "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...4 days ago
- Huge interest in Government’s infrastructure plansHundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...6 days ago
- Health Minister thanks outgoing Health New Zealand ChairHealth Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board. “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti. “I have asked her to ...6 days ago
- Roads of National Significance planning underwayThe NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...7 days ago
- Navigating an unstable global environmentNew Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States. “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...7 days ago
- NZ welcomes Australian Governor-GeneralPrime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...7 days ago
- Pseudoephedrine back on shelves for WinterAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...7 days ago
- NZ and the US: an ever closer partnershipNew Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...7 days ago
- Joint US and NZ declarationApril 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...7 days ago
- NZ and US to undertake further practical Pacific cooperationForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research. “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...7 days ago
- Government redress for Te Korowai o WainuiāruaThe Government is continuing the bipartisan effort to restore its relationship with iwi as the Te Korowai o Wainuiārua Claims Settlement Bill passed its first reading in Parliament today, says Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith. “Historical grievances of Te Korowai o Wainuiārua relate to 19th century warfare, land purchased or taken ...1 week ago
- Focus on outstanding minerals permit applicationsNew Zealand Petroleum and Minerals is working to resolve almost 150 outstanding minerals permit applications by the end of the financial year, enabling valuable mining activity and signalling to the sector that New Zealand is open for business, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “While there are no set timeframes for ...1 week ago
- Applications open for NZ-Ireland Research CallThe New Zealand and Irish governments have today announced that applications for the 2024 New Zealand-Ireland Joint Research Call on Agriculture and Climate Change are now open. This is the third research call in the three-year Joint Research Initiative pilot launched in 2022 by the Ministry for Primary Industries and Ireland’s ...1 week ago
- Tenancy rules changes to improve rental marketThe coalition Government has today announced changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to encourage landlords back to the rental property market, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The previous Government waged a war on landlords. Many landlords told us this caused them to exit the rental market altogether. It caused worse ...1 week ago
- Boosting NZ’s trade and agricultural relationship with ChinaTrade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay will visit China next week, to strengthen relationships, support Kiwi exporters and promote New Zealand businesses on the world stage. “China is one of New Zealand’s most significant trade and economic relationships and remains an important destination for New Zealand’s products, accounting for nearly 22 per cent of our good and ...1 week ago
- Freshwater farm plan systems to be improvedThe coalition Government intends to improve freshwater farm plans so that they are more cost-effective and practical for farmers, Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay have announced. “A fit-for-purpose freshwater farm plan system will enable farmers and growers to find the right solutions for their farm ...1 week ago
- New Fast Track Projects advisory group namedThe coalition Government has today announced the expert advisory group who will provide independent recommendations to Ministers on projects to be included in the Fast Track Approvals Bill, say RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Regional Development Minister Shane Jones. “Our Fast Track Approval process will make it easier and ...1 week ago
- Grattan on Friday: Ethnic tensions will complicate the Albanese government’s multicultural policy ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra When ASIO boss Mike Burgess delivered his annual threat assessment earlier this year, he stressed the rising danger posed by espionage and foreign interference. “In 2024, threats to our way of life have surpassed ...3 hours ago - Group plans work to improve safety of female MPs
New research shows harassment of elected officials - especially women - is on the rise. ...4 hours ago - Ukraine warns of WW3 ahead of long-stalled Congress aid voteUkraine's Prime Minister says his country desperately needs the US to approve long-stalled security assistance. ...6 hours ago
- Crown lawyers attempt to block Waitangi Tribunal summons to Minister for ChildrenThe Tribunal had called on Minister for Children Karen Chhour to provide evidence at an urgent inquiry into the repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. ...8 hours ago
- Luxon refuses to guarantee public consultation on AUKUS Pillar 2Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says it's "far too premature" to be confirming whether the public would be consulted on joining AUKUS Pillar 2. ...9 hours ago
- Visualising the 1800s or designing wedding invitations: 6 ways you can use AI beyond generating textSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University Midjourney image by T.J. Thomson As more than half of Australian office workers report using generative artificial intelligence (AI) for work, we’re starting to see this technology affect every ...9 hours ago
- Falls, fractures and self-harm: 4 charts on how kids’ injury risk changes over time and differs fo...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Nicole Sharwood, Injury epidemiologist | Expert Witness, UNSW Sydney Sergey Novikov/Shutterstock Injuries are the leading cause of disability and death among Australian children and adolescents. At least a quarter of all emergency department presentations during childhood are injury-related. Injuries can ...9 hours ago
- Choice and control: will NDIS reforms mean people with disability don’t get to decide who they liv...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Di Winkler, Adjunct Associate Professor, Living with Disability Research Centre, La Trobe University Shutterstock/Ground Picture Many Australians with disability feel on the edge of a precipice right now. Recommendations from the disability royal commission and the NDIS review were released late ...10 hours ago
- Asbestos in playground mulch: how to avoid a repeat of this circular economy scandalSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Salman Shooshtarian, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT University Salman Shooshtarian Asbestos has been found in mulch used for playgrounds, schools, parks and gardens across Sydney and Melbourne. Local communities naturally fear for the health of their ...10 hours ago
- Could Albanese’s bet on homegrown green industries be the boost our regions deserve?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Madeline Taylor, Senior Lecturer, Macquarie University Cloudy Designs/Shutterstock Right now, there’s a global race underway. The goal: bring back manufacturing and energy jobs as the energy transition speeds up. In 2022, America launched its mammoth Inflation Reduction Act and the ...10 hours ago
- Watch: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon won't say if government will consult public on joining ...Asked multiple times if the public will be consulted on joining the defence pact, Luxon repeatedly said that was yet to be worked through. ...10 hours ago
- Watch live: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon speaks in PhilippinesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon is speaking to reporters on the third leg of his Southeast Asia trip, from Manila in the Philippines. ...10 hours ago
- Māori lawyers call Shane Jones' Waitangi Tribunal comments 'inappropriate'The Māori Law Society says his comments breach the principle of the separation of powers and the Cabinet Manual. ...11 hours ago
- Abortions Increase 25% Since Law Change
Family First says that the latest abortion statistics make grim and upsetting reading, with a 25% increase in abortions since the decriminalisation of abortion in March 2020. According to an Official Information Act request received by Right to Life ...12 hours ago - Over Half Of New Zealanders Feel That The Country Is In Decline And That Our Society Is BrokenIpsos New Zealand's inaugural participation in a global study on populism reveals a pervasive sense of societal and economic decline among New Zealanders. MORE DETAILS AND FULL REPORT HERE Ipsos New Zealand's inaugural participation in a global study ...12 hours ago
- Australia’s new defence strategy is big on ideas, but lacks one key ingredient: well-trained soldi...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Strategic Studies, Griffith University There have been a lot of defence announcements recently about buying new equipment, building up Australia’s manufacturing capabilities, creating local jobs, new legislation to support AUKUS and even a new defence chief. In ...12 hours ago
- What does Steve Smith’s Stateside signing mean for cricket in the US – and Australia?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney Steve Smith, one of this generation’s finest batters, has conquered much of the cricketing world during his career, and he now has set his sights on a new frontier: the United ...12 hours ago
- A love letter to Wellington: when i open the shop by romesh dissanayake, reviewed
Madeleine Ballard reviews the debut novel from romesh dissanayake. when I open the shop, the debut novel by Naarm-based Aotearoa writer romesh dissanayake (Sri Lankan, Koryo Saram), is a narrative of grief. Devendra loses his mother, opens a noodle shop on The Terrace, grieves, and emerges changed. But just as ...12 hours ago - Minister Concedes Contractors Will Be Hired To Do Work Of Axed Ministry Of Education StaffThe PSA can’t believe that the Minister of Education is happy for her ministry to hire contractors at the same time it is dismissing 565 workers. ...12 hours ago
- Attempt to bar diplomat from Myanmar military junta failsMyanmar community members applied to the courts to bar the diplomat from attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. ...13 hours ago
- LGNZ Welcomes Govt Earthquake-prone Buildings DecisionLGNZ has advocated for this decision as part of a remit led by Manawatū District Council. ...13 hours ago
- AUKUS Pillar 2 a 'fragrant, methane-wrapped bull***' – Bob CarrThe former Australian Foreign Minister has continued to warn New Zealand against joining the defence pact. ...13 hours ago
- Enforceable undertaking issued to abc accounting services limited after continued non-compliance.The Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) has accepted an enforceable undertaking agreement from ABC Accounting Services Limited (ABC) under section 81 of the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act 2009 (AML/CFT Act). ...14 hours ago
- REVEALED: RNZ’s Hypocrisy Over Fair Digital News Bargaining BillThe Taxpayers’ Union can reveal that Radio New Zealand (RNZ) spent $71,842.53 on Facebook advertising over the past 12 months, despite earlier this year coming out in support of the Fair Digital News Bargaining Bill , which would force the likes ...14 hours ago
- Police rejected 'very good offer' – Mark MitchellPolice Minister Mark Mitchell says the pay offer rejected by police was the best the government could put forward under difficult financial circumstances. ...14 hours ago
- How can we have truth-telling without the Voice? Our research shows a way forwardSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Heidi Norman, Professor, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, Convenor: Indigenous Land & Justice Research Group, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock The Uluru Statement from the Heart set out the aspirations of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples for “Voice, Treaty, Truth”, in ...14 hours ago
- NZ education scores must improve – but another polarising ideological pivot isn’t the answerSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bronwyn E Wood, Associate Professor in Education, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images You don’t need to look hard right now to see concerns about Aotearoa New Zealand’s education system. Declining performance in international testing has been ...14 hours ago
- An updated tally of the public sector job cutsThe coalition government has made it well known it expects departments to cut roles. We break down the numbers as they currently stand. Updated: 12pm, April 18 Before last year’s election, both National and Act made it clear that the public service was squarely in their crosshairs. Both parties, now ...14 hours ago
- Confessions of an unlikely petrolheadCheckered Flag director Natalie Wilson on her lifelong love of motorsport, and the allure of Pukekohe Park Raceway. One childhood summer when my world revolved around winning stuff off the radio, I bagged tickets to Western Springs Speedway and then to Waikaraka Park in what was a dream season for ...14 hours ago
- 'Ambitious' trade pledge headlines Luxon's Thailand stopThe Prime has announced a commitment to triple two-way trade with Thailand by 2045, but it only requires maintaining current growth. ...15 hours ago
- ‘The right person’: What did Solomon Islanders vote for?By Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor in Honiara After a relatively well organised and peaceful day of voting in Solomon Islands yesterday, the electoral commission is working with donor partners to safely transport ballot boxes from polling stations all over the country to centrally located counting venues. It is a ...15 hours ago
- What it’s like to be made redundant by the Ministry of EducationI was one of hundreds of people who lost my government job this week. Here’s exactly how it played out. It is a Friday. I’m in the middle of an online Teams hui working out the finer details of a series of workshops we’ll be presenting next week. It’s a ...16 hours ago
- What are ‘Ozempic babies’? Can the drug really increase your chance of pregnancy?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karin Hammarberg, Senior Research Fellow, Global and Women’s Health, School of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, Monash University Joshua Rodriguez/Unsplash Hundreds of thousands of people worldwide are taking drugs like Ozempic to lose weight. But what do we actually know about ...17 hours ago
- Why the kookaburra’s iconic laugh is at risk of being silencedSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diana Kuchinke, Lecturer in Ecology, Federation University Australia Linda Robertus/Shutterstock Once, while teaching a class of environmental science students in China’s Hebei University of Science and Technology, I asked who knew what a laughing kookaburra was. There were many blank faces. ...17 hours ago
- Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claire Breen, Professor of Law, University of Waikato smolaw11/Getty Images School truancy has been a concern across the political spectrum for years. But proposed solutions have largely failed to address the core reasons for unexplained school absences. Despite the apparent ...17 hours ago
- ‘Listening is the most important part’: 10 things students with disability and their families wa...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melissa Cain, Senior Lecturer in Inclusive Education and Arts Education, Australian Catholic University Agence Olloweb/Unsplash, CC BY About 90% of Australian students with disability attend mainstream schools. Equitable access and participation in education is a fundamental human right. But as last ...17 hours ago
- Will global oil supply be at risk if Iran and Israel pull the Middle East into war?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Flavio Macau, Associate Dean – School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University Tensions in the Middle East have escalated following Iran’s weekend missile and drone attacks on Israel, heightening concerns of a wider conflict. As with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, ...17 hours ago
- No, getting your boyfriend to peel an orange won’t prove his loyalty. Why TikTok relationship ‘t...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edith Jennifer Hill, Associate Lecturer, Learning & Teaching Innovation, Flinders University Shutterstock Have you ever wondered if your partner really loves you? Well apparently so have thousands of TikTok users, who are testing their theories for the world to see. In ...17 hours ago
- New Zealand’s Annual Emissions Fell In 2022, For Third Successive YearThis is the third successive decrease year-on-year. New Zealand’s gross emissions for 2022 were 78.4 Mt CO2-e. ...17 hours ago
- Oranga Tamariki job cuts: 'We can't establish what their endgame is'Oranga Tamariki has failed to explain how hundreds of job cuts will achieve a better outcome for children, a children's advocate says. ...17 hours ago
- Help Me Hera: My parents won’t help out with my kidsThey pressured me to have children, and I had two. Now they won’t lift a finger. Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nz Hi Hera, I suspect it’s a familiar pattern. Back in the day, as a single gal, I was plagued with questions from my parents about when I would find ...17 hours ago
- Care Workers Call For Fairness On Pay Equity Anniversary“The Government has an opportunity here to really correct the course for the care and support workforce, and the people they look after. This cannot be just another area left in the cold, we need real leadership to ensure the proper quality of care ...18 hours ago
- First evidence of ancient human occupation found in giant lava tube cave in Saudi ArabiaSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mathew Stewart, Research Fellow, Australian Research Centre for Human Evolution, Griffith University The western passage of the Umm Jirsan lava tube. Green Arabia Project If you look from above, you can see thousands of stone structures dotting the landscape of the Arabian ...18 hours ago
- Teachers worry about curriculum, NCEA changes amid staff cutsMore than 500 jobs are likely to be cut at the Education Ministry with concerns about how the curriculum and NCEA changes will now be managed. ...18 hours ago
- Government IT systems need a $800m overhaulThe government is facing a bill of more than $800 million to overhaul back-office IT systems, and attempts to lessen its impact have hit delays. ...18 hours ago
- Over 3,000 public service jobs now proposed to goThe Ministry of Education confirmed a proposal to reduce headcount by 565, while Oranga Tamariki’s proposal would result in a loss of 447 jobs, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Ministry of ...18 hours ago
- Kāinga Ora delays building projects ahead of reviewKāinga Ora is unable to say how many new KiwiBuild developments have been delayed as it waits for the outcome of the government's independent review of the state housing agency. ...19 hours ago
- Owners of earthquake prone buildings given four extra years to complete strengtheningA review into the regulations was also being brought forward. ...19 hours ago
- Corrections Accepts Recommendations Following Auckland Prison InspectionThe Inspectorate made three overarching recommendations following the inspection, all of which have been accepted in full by Corrections. ...19 hours ago
- Auckland’s dumped Commonwealth Games bid has lessons for Christchurch
The crippling cost and complexity of Christchurch’s Commonwealth Games ambitions have become clearer The post Auckland’s dumped Commonwealth Games bid has lessons for Christchurch appeared first on Newsroom. ...21 hours ago - Oranga Tamariki services for at-risk children will get better after job cuts, minister says"We need to make sure that every dollar we're spending is actually for the benefit of our young people," says Children's Minister Karen Chhour. ...21 hours ago
- How the coalition plans to replace the quickly scrapped Māori Health AuthorityThe coalition government got rid of the Māori Health Authority in a hurry. What is it doing now instead? ...21 hours ago
- How to tell if your child is well enough to go to school or is in fact sickDavid Seymour announced new guidelines this week for sending your kids to school with symptoms. Emily Writes sums them up. Parents knee deep in snotty tissues and buckets of vomit were granted a much-welcome reprieve by associate education minister David Seymour on Wednesday with the announcement that he will advise ...21 hours ago
- We’re asking the wrong questions about treaty settlementsWhen the Crown is the self-appointed ultimate authority over a process to deal with Crown misconduct, we run into big issues, writes Tina Ngata. “What’s it going to take for Ngā Puhi to settle” was the headliner statement on Q&A last weekend, as Ngā Puhi chair Mana Tahere was interviewed ...21 hours ago
- Book of the Week: Mothering in late-stage capitalismI think a capitalist patriarchy that relies on monogamous heterosexuality and gender essentialism is the worst system to ensure the survival of our species. Just watch an episode of MAFS Australia. I don’t think there’s anything natural or normal about this system, instead I think it’s a construct kept in ...21 hours ago
- Luxon spreads his wings in ThailandLuxon touched down in Thailand late on Tuesday night, before launching into a packed day of business breakfasts and bilateral meetings in the kingdom’s capital. The visit to Thailand comes after Luxon’s Singapore swing – somewhat of a love-in for the Kiwi Prime Minister, where he shmoozed high-net worth individuals, ...21 hours ago
- New Zealand’s crisis of confidenceThree in five New Zealanders say our country is in decline and our society is broken, exclusive new polling reveals The post New Zealand’s crisis of confidence appeared first on Newsroom. ...21 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Thursday 18 AprilThe post Daily crossword, Thursday 18 April appeared first on Newsroom. ...21 hours ago
- New Zealand broken and in decline, Kiwis sayA global wave of disillusionment and disenfranchisement has not spared New Zealand, with a majority of respondents to a survey here agreeing that New Zealand society is broken and the country is in decline. Ipsos New Zealand asked 1001 Kiwis about their hopes for the future and their views of ...21 hours ago
- Labour all at sea against Govt’s legislative blitzkriegOpinion: The embittered negativity of Labour’s prominent spokespeople is preventing political exploitation of rapid Government change The post Labour all at sea against Govt’s legislative blitzkrieg appeared first on Newsroom. ...21 hours ago
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Empty strollers left on a train station in Poland waiting for Ukraine families to arrive. This one got me this morning.
The founding principle of the UN and the second half of the 20th century has been to stop the mindless imperial fallacies that caused the wars of the early 20th century. That is what the principles of national soveignty are based on.
Russia's aggression and clear goal of annexation are a direct reversion to the stupidities of force and imperialism. So to prevent the kinds of dumbarse wars that littered the last few centuries it needs to be dealt with early.
The rather creepy apologists for the behaviour of the Russian Federation rather than focusing on easily refuted and facile misinformation about Ukraine should really look at recent actions of Russia in surrounding nations and the stated justifications that go with it. They directly challenge the ideas of sovereignty and self detirmination.
Just as the idiotic invasion of Iraq did in 2003. Rather than concentrate on bashing the US, concentrate on what in the hell you're implicitly supporting. Imperial ethnic and religious aspirations to attack the populations of neighbouring nations and steal their resources. Is that the type of world you want to support?
You are absolutely correct in pointing to the UN as the core of the matter. If the UN cannot handle this crisis – then what justification remains for it's continued existence in its current form?
Reform has become urgent and essential. Discussions around the modification of the Security Council veto have been mooted but progression to action appears to have been blocked. This is not a happy outlook – the complete humiliation and disintegration of the Security Council is entirely possible, heralding a return to unconstrained pre-WW2 imperialism.
Overall the UN has been doing what it is meant to do. Provide a place to discuss, argue, to disagree, a centre for organising multilateral support, and to help clean up the mess of idiots. Especially imperialist ones.
It presided over the slow disintegration of a number of empires from 51 founding states that initiated it to the 193 member states of today. That was because most of the world states in 1946 were ruled or occupied by other nations. There are about 5 reasonably recognised (Vatican, Palestine) and not fully recognised (Taiwan, Western Sahara, Kosovo) states outside. Plus a few other sustained only by the support of the old empires of Russia or Turkey.
The UN was intended primarily for the purpose of decolonisation and the disintegration of empires, plus the collective support of national sovereignty. It has been successful in that limited purpose compared to the Treaty of Vienna or the League of Nations (and others), which were designed to reduce dangerous levels of conflict.
It wasn't designed to unilaterally intervene and act as the worlds police. It shows few signs of evolving towards that – and it'd be hard to find member nations who'd actually support that.
It makes it clumsy with dealing with anything outside of its design in the conflict resolution sphere. I can't imagine that the security council is likely to disintegrate – that has been postulated even since the Korean war 70 odd years ago. What you're looking at now is exactly what was discussed back then.
Besides, the UN is far bigger than the security council or the assembly. Most of the work is done with sub-organisations like WHO, UNHCR, IMO, ITU, ICJ, UNDP, IAEA, ICAO and others which support international efforts at a actionable level. Members join and usually support those to deal with the day to day minutiae of a connected world. It is too damn expensive to try to do those tasks independently at a national level.
That is the inherent strength of the UN
Again a good explanation. I have to agree with you at a pragmatic level – nonetheless I retain a sense that if the UN Security Council remains powerless to prevent these neo-imperial conflicts then it needs to adapt. Otherwise it will forever fall short of its vision and continue to loose credibility in the eyes of many.
In particular I think it realistic to demand that the General Assembly should have the opportunity to review and challenge any use of the Permanent Five veto.
Putin has dropped all pretence at NATO provocation as an excuse – this is an out and out war of imperial aggression and the guy has clearly gone completely troppo, imagining himself as a modern day Peter the Great expanding the Russian Empire.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1535410185623281667
https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlin-cronies-say-putin-is-ready-to-go-full-kim-jong-un?ref=author
If this thread's to be believed, he went troppo a decade or more ago.
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1535582101621420032
[…]
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1535602482218418176
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1535582101621420032.html
Poots gets his Stalin on.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1535618483928584197
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1535617894045868033.html
A Russian member of parliament wants Alaska back.
https://www.adn.com/politics/2022/03/16/a-russian-lawmaker-wants-alaska-back-good-luck-with-that/
Now, I know that the rest of the world won't take this seriously, but it seems to be another example of the desire to re-write history to restore a Russian empire….
Well, if they want to restore mum Russia to her former glory…
If we go back far enough Russia wouldn't exist. 2500 years ago I think the territory Scythia.
It's a start..
https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1535271260464336896
I don't read Russian, but I assume the gist of it, as stated, is correct. I take it Moscow vanished as a result. Or are they intending an appeal to a higher court.
Everything must be done to ensure Ukraine doesn’t give up.
Why? Surely that's for Ukraine to decide; though no doubt Uncle Sam doesn't agree. He would say “That’s my decision.”
Every one of the current supporter countries of Ukraine must forcefully make the case on every platform they can find that grisly and unprovoked invasions make the entire world less prosperous,
Which seems to beg the question: was it an unprovoked invasion?
I suppose any invasion, whether provoked or unprovoked, might make the world less prosperous.
Well let me make this simple for you – if for the sake of your argument we accept this Russian atrocity is fully justified by Ukranian provocation, then I guess by the law of whataboutism that you are so keen on – you have to fully embrace the US invasion of Iraq, or Vietnam or whatever as fully justified as well.
Or is it that you are just here to cheer on your partisan imperial power?
What a weird rejoinder. I have never, on this website, or any other, expressed an opinion on the war in Vietnam. If you think I'm wrong about provocation by Ukraine, why find a legitimate rebuttal instead of rabitting on about some 50 year old war.
But of course I would not expect a rational argument from you anyway.
Are you being sarcastic or petulant again?
Neither. I'm simply calling you for the rubbish you seem to insist on spouting.
What does it matter what I think about the Vietnam war. But for what it's worth, I was opposed to it at the time.
Avoidance