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UK’s hung parliament?

Written By: - Date published: 7:06 am, June 1st, 2017 - 131 comments
Categories: uk politics - Tags: , ,

Remember First Past the Post? The UK election has largely been reported on the total percentage of people wanting to vote for various parties. But in the election itself, the only vote Brits get is for their local candidate, they don’t get to vote for the party. The party with the most candidates wins, not the party with the biggest national percentage. Where no party has an outright majority (i.e. more than 50% of the total seats), parties can form coalitions. So I haven’t really understood why the pre-election coverage focusses on national polling rather than electorate polling (anyone?).

Major market research firm Yougov have just released their electorate by electorate analysis results 9 days out from the General Election and it shows that on current voter intentions there would likely be a hung parliament.

YouGov projection for The Times predicts Tories will be 16 seats short of a majority, leading to hung parliament

From The Times (registration required for full article, 2 reads per week)

The Conservative Party could be in line to lose 20 seats and Labour gain nearly 30 in next week’s general election, according to new modelling by one of the country’s leading pollsters.

YouGov’s first constituency-by- constituency estimate of the election result predicts that the Tories would fall short of an overall majority by 16 seats, leading to a hung parliament.

The central projection of the model, which allows for a wide margin of error, would be a catastrophic outcome for Theresa May, who called the election when polls pointed to a landslide result. Her support appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto, including plans to make more elderly voters pay for home care.

YouGov’s model puts the Tories on course to win 310 seats, down from the 330 they held when the election was called. Labour would get 257 seats, up from 229, the Liberal Democrats ten, up from nine, the SNP 50, down from 54, the Greens one and Plaid Cymru three. This would leave the Tories 16 seats short of the 326 they need for an overall majority in the Commons.

The projection allows for big variations, however, and suggests that the Tories could get as many as 345 seats on a good night, 15 more than at present, and as few as 274 seats on a bad night.

YouGov acknowledged that the predictions were controversial and pointed to significant “churn” in voting intentions. But Stephan Shakespeare, its chief executive, said that the model had been publicly tested during the EU referendum campaign last year, when it always had Leave ahead.

The model is based on 50,000 interviews over the course of a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov. This allows the pollster to assess the intention of every type of voter, from where they live to how they voted in the EU referendum, their age and social background, to weight the results.

I don’t know enough about UK politics but I’m guessing that a potential Labour government could be made up from Labour, Scottish National Party, Liberal Democrats, and Plaid Cymru. I don’t know how the Northern Ireland seats fit into that.

Some brief commentary from Sam Coates The Times’ reporter,

Reliable commenter Martin Baxter from Electoral Calculus still predicts a comfortable win for the Conservatives, but also commends Yougov for their new research methods, acknowledges they might be right, and gives a brief explanation.

Whatever happens on June 8th, Corbyn has proved that the electorate is interested social democratic policies and governance. The Tories’ supposed landslide has been reduce to at best a bit of a rockfall, and is potentially disastrous given they had another 3 years to govern before the next mandatory election and instead chose a mid term snap election based on opinion polls.

Maybe it also had something to do with the sentiment of this music video which topped the UK iTunes charts this week,

 

131 comments on “UK’s hung parliament? ”

  1. tc 1

    Interesting times, unlike here there’s still remnants of independent media in the U.K. and a massively pissed off middle/lower class who see Maggie v2.0 in May.

    Trust the Tories is a hard sell after johnsons brexit behaviour.

  2. Carolyn_nth 2

    Conservatives on Twitter calling the left a “coalition of chaos” – and getting a bollocking for it. The replies are fun.

    Conservatives @Conservatives tweeted:

    More taxes, higher immigration, and a Brexit shambles – tonight has made it clear what a coalition of chaos would look like #BBCDebate

  3. ianmac 3

    Who will create a delicious song like “Liar, Liar, Liar” for us?

    • The decrypter 3.1

      Joyce could probably supply a “pretty legal” copy ianmac.

    • weka 3.2

      any luck Darren Watson will be on the case.

    • saveNZ 3.3

      Can you imagine Liar liar with Key, it would have to be an album because it could not fit on a single.

      I’m sure double dipping, pizza innovater and fitness ‘walk/run’ vids can show the mediocre, characterless, bean counting bore that the Natz are trying to pass off as an Prime Minister who as finance minister has managed to plunge 35% of the country into poverty while giving away free water to foreign billionaires and that’s not even getting into the escalating debt… Dick Smith, Cadbury, Silver Ferns farms, PSA virus, not exactly been good for jobs, just selling off public and private companies cheap and then allowing the new owners to asset strip and close down factories, offshore jobs etc….

      • WILD KATIPO 3.3.1

        ‘ I’m sure double dipping, pizza innovater and fitness ‘walk/run’ vids can show the mediocre, characterless, bean counting bore that the Natz are trying to pass off as an Prime Minister ‘

        HAHAHAA – maybe I’m in a jocular mood today but some of these comments are striking me as quite humorous .

        🙂

      • weka 3.3.2

        Lol, the Key Album.

        Blinglish is tricky because he’s bland. Go for the Nats as a whole, the nasty party (cue Bennett and Collins).

        • gsays 3.3.2.1

          you are forgetting the rest of the right horrible mob.
          rimmer, yes no yes no Dunne and our caramel cousins in the maori party.

          plenty of material for a rock opera.

          • weka 3.3.2.1.1

            I don’t know whether to laugh or cringe at the idea of a pointed anti-RW rock opera 💡

    • adam 3.4

      Like planet key, it will get banned by the electoral commission. The corrupt little hand puppets of the national party.

      • saveNZ 3.4.1

        Nope, didn’t planet Key, win in court. I think freedom of speech still ok?

        • dukeofurl 3.4.1.1

          At first it was banned, not till long after the election was that idiocy removed

          • WILD KATIPO 3.4.1.1.1

            You are quite correct – and typical of this gutless govt to defer, deflect and diffuse by hiding embarrassing critiques of their feckless dishonesty’s.

            • weka 3.4.1.1.1.1

              National didn’t ban it.

              And yes, Darren Watson eventually won, so presumably that sets a precedent for this year.

              • There was a stink with the Electoral Commission or something similar if I recall, … and also a few implications from certain corners of ‘ stoogery ‘ going on, which , after years and years of equally as obvious but not provable ‘ stoogery ‘ under Keys National govt led many to suspect there was a few phone calls being made to get the video off the airways.

  4. mikesh 4

    Looks like SNP would be kingmakers. What price would they demand? Scottish indpendence? A new brexit referendum?

    • weka 4.1

      I wouldn’t call the SNP kingmakers because there is no way in hell they would go with the Conservatives. Libdems on the other hand, have gone into a coalition with the Conservatives and got hammered after hence their low polling. So I’m assuming they wold support Labour this time, but who knows.

      • Bill 4.1.1

        The Democratic Unionist Party of N. Ireland currently has 8 MPs at Westminster. I’ve no idea what they’re currently polling. They’re hard core, protestant throw backs and somewhat natural bed fellows of the Tories.

        BREXIT complicates their allegiance somewhat

        • weka 4.1.1.1

          Yougov has NI with 18 seats spread out over a number of parties I think, but I didn’t understand who all the parties were.

      • Yeah, it’s virtually criminal how much the UK media has been ignoring Northern Ireland in the run-up to the snap election. The winners of those seats could absolutely determine who governs, especially if there’s a strong showing for DUP and the conservatives don’t get an outright majority, but do win enough that Labour can’t effectively govern.

  5. james 5

    Its really interesting poll result.

    Time will tell if they are right or not – but despite corbyn (imho) being a walking disaster, he seems to be doing a lot (and I mean a lot) better than a lot of the experts predicted, and I most certianly was waaaaay out in where I thought he would be now.

    In fact I think I said he would be the death of the labour party. Seems I might have gotten that one significantly wrong.

    I guess we will find out next week.

    • The decrypter 5.1

      james. Ya can’t win em all is what I say.

    • Adrian Thornton 5.2

      In what way would you say he is a walking disaster for Labour UK?

      • WILD KATIPO 5.2.1

        I would say Corbyn is walking the UK into a new era of reevaluation of political and social reform, if anything.

        And its his growing popularity that is scaring the pants off those who prematurely thought he was a has been – particularly the neo liberal camp.

    • While imagine you’re being philosophical because of your political leanings rather than as a good approach to polling in general, you’re quite correct that it’s difficult to tell whether this is a better methodology than traditional polling in the UK. (my guess is that it is much more reliable, but we’ll see at the general election. We would really have needed a few of these sorts of polls run over a periods of months to get a better idea, but if Corbyn wins I predict this model will be seeing a lot more use!)

      I’ve actually been waiting to see if the coin would turn on Corbyn. While he’s not a very rah-rah my Party Will Win type of leader, he’s actually a very good listener who really cares about making things better for the average person, and has left-wing credibility like Bernie Sanders. The left haven’t really had a place to go to vote in a while in the UK elections, so it’s genuinely possible that if he doesn’t alienate the swing voters too hard, but does push hard to his base at the same time, that he could simply win by turning out disenfranchised left-wing voters. The hard part is that he would have to do it with a significant faction of his party hoping he fails, and with a significant amount of those left-wing voters not wanting to support his opponents within his own party.

      Right now, I’m calling a narrow Conservative win, possibly even relying on DUP and the LibDems to get into government, which would remove their margin for a hard brexit they wanted to argue they had a “mandate” for.

      • weka 5.3.1

        Have the Libdems said if they will do what they did last time, in supporting whichever party gets the most seats (or votes)?

      • weka 5.3.2

        “The hard part is that he would have to do it with a significant faction of his party hoping he fails, and with a significant amount of those left-wing voters not wanting to support his opponents within his own party.”

        Hadn’t thought about that. So people voting in electorates that have anti-Corbyn Labour candidates, and not wanting to vote for them because they support Corbyn? Crikey.

        • Yep, UK Labour essentially has a Momentum wing, (ie. real leftists and other Corbyn supporters) and an establishment wing, and they’re basically a coalition of two parties in how far the two factions are apart. (I often say that thinking of National as two different parties (one of primarily right-wing candidates with some right-wing liberals thrown in, and one of conservative right-wingers) is helpful in understanding the NZ right wing, but UK Labour has taken that situation to a whole new level)

          So establishment Labour is going hard for the centre, being skeptical of Corbyn, and essentially playing to lose but lose small. Momentum Labour is trying to win by going a populist left-wing route with real criticisms of tory policy, and polling is indicating that it’s actually working, despite what prominent anti-Corbyn naysayers have been claiming about his electability, it’s always the way with left-wing figures that they become much more popular in the campaign than they are at the start.

          So some of the old guard that back Corbyn will get a new constituency of voters, as will the new guard that came in after the leadership election. But a lot of the seats are old guard establishment Labour, and in those cases it will be really interesting to see what happens- I suspect the Lib Dems will do better than establishment candidates in areas where Remain did well, and that establishment Labour will do better in areas where Brexit did well, but of course it’s always more complicated and more about personality, charisma, and campaigning for electorates, so we’ll need to wait and see if that trend eventuates. As for the new guard, I’m honestly not sure where they’ll do well, England is actually pretty conservative, and Scottish Labour is going to have a hard time unseating the SNP, so I suspect their chances are more down to their own campaigning ability than the vagarities of the electorate’s mood for certain large-level policy concerns. (as a lot of the reason that England has been so conservative is that they’ve had centrist Labour, centrist LibDems, and right-wing Conservatives to choose from, so there’s a certain appeal to picking a real Tory over a triangulator)

          Basically, we’re in a similar scenario for UK Labour to what NZ Labour would have been in if Cunliffe hadn’t stepped down after the last General Election. The Party really likes Corbyn and nobody will win without the support of the new Momentum bloc from here on in, but much of the senior caucus members hate him and are causing strife within the party now that it’s clear they’ve lost control. A lot of it is simply going to come down to how strongly Corbyn’s ideas connect and manage to turn out voters for Labour. If they get a lot of new voters or swing a lot of centrists, Momentum will likely take over the party in the long term and the government will change, and will probably go for a soft Brexit in coalition with the SNP. But if Labour lose, it could go very badly for Corbyn, even if it’s closer than expected.

          • weka 5.3.2.1.1

            If Corbyn wins and gets new voters, what will happen to the establishment in Labour. He’s offered them jobs and they’ve turned him down, right? So he will lead with the backstabbers on the backbencher still backstabbing?

            • Matthew Whitehead 5.3.2.1.1.1

              He doesn’t have a choice unless their local committees de-select them next election, so yes, they’ll get to be back-benchers.

              • weka

                Can the party censure MPs?

                • I honestly don’t know.

                  Obviously they can unofficially do so if they don’t have any official power in the bylaws anyway, the issue is whether it would make any difference.

                  I expect things would change in that regard if Corbyn is Prime Minister rather than leader of the opposition, and that there will be some desire to work together constructively, and you know, deliver things to their districts so that they don’t get de-selected.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 5.4

      Eight days out, momentum becomes an issue, too. If it’s a high turn-out election I’d say there’ll be a change of government.

      Wishful thinking is a wonderful thing 🙂

  6. outofbed 6

    So if the parliamentary wing of the Labour party in the UK hadn’t been so fucking disruptive and anti Corbyn, how far in front would they be now ?

    • weka 6.1

      Yep. Which suggests that it’s not a two way battle between the old left and right, but a three way battle between conservatives, lefties and neoliberals, with overlap between them all.

      • Adrian Thornton 6.1.1

        I think the UK conservatives are just as infiltrated and captured by the neoliberal ideology as UK Labour had been (and Labour NZ still is), so I would say it really just a battle of two ideologies that is being played out, any overlap is really a side issue at this stage (in my view).

        Neoliberalism in Britain: From Thatcherism to Cameronism…
        http://www.triple-c.at/index.php/tripleC/article/view/750/795

        I am living for the day when we can participate in that same battle here…it’s coming that much is for sure.

        • weka 6.1.1.1

          still makes it threeway not two-way, and that’s the stuff that creates political confusion. If Corbyn does nothing else, making that shit visible is a huge service.

          Conservative
          Neoliberal
          Social democrat.

          And that can’t be understood on a line. For too long it’s been Conservative neoliberal vs Centre left neoliberal. It’s not enough to take the neoliberal out, we actually have to replace the centre left with something that has its own identity.

          • Adrian Thornton 6.1.1.1.1

            JC has always maintained publicly that he is proudly Socialist, so assume Labour UK is essentially running on a Socialist platform?
            So if it is a three way battle ( I think it is a two) wouldn’t that be..
            Conservative
            Neoliberal
            Socialist.

            Not that it really matters…we both know we like what he stands for, and that’s what is important.

            • weka 6.1.1.1.1.1

              Socialist/social democrat, a bit too subtle for me sorry.

              • McFlock

                Even more subtle is the distinction between “democratic socialists” and “social democrats” 🙂

                My understanding is that when you’re getting to that level the distinction is mostly in how much government ownership there is:

                Social democrats believe in things like the welfare state, reductions in inequality, healthcare, and representative democracy.

                Socialists are more concerned with the means of production being commonly owned to greater or lesser degrees, alongside social welfare and inequality.

                Democratic socialists overlay that with a representative democracy rather than eg a ruling council that is promoted on merit, or the other direction of more local communalism (as opposed to communism, which is 100% state ownership).

                And, in the great tradition that is still maintained here at TS, the most vicious fighting and dirty tricks committed by left wing groups in periods of change were mostly aimed within the clump of leftist groups whom nobody else could tell apart, rather than aimed at the tories or fascists.

                Hope that’s all as clear as mud 🙂

                • weka

                  That’s great. I actually like learning that stuff outside of the Pythonesque wars.

              • Bill

                Both social democracy and liberalism are concerned with how best to manage a capitalist market economy.

                Socialism isn’t.

                If social democracy becomes ascendant, it must not be allowed to ‘bed in’. If it is (and putting AGW aside) we’ll just wind up right back *here* eventually.

                Put AGW back into the picture, and we don’t wind up back *here*, but in a world dominated by calamity and abject misery.

                • McFlock

                  Thing is, I reckon we’ll always end up here again (or a bit worse, or a bit better), regardless.

                  I never really bought the idea that once we hit peak socialism everything would be better forever. Humanity’s ability to snatch itself out of the fire at the last minute is matched only by its ability to fuck up a good thing.

                  • Bill

                    Don’t know what you mean by ‘peak socialism’. There is either socialism or there isn’t. The idea that socialism could be delivered through parliament (social democracy) was ridiculed by more than just a few socialists at the time it was first mooted.

                    But sure, Labour Parties formed anyway and eventually got voted into power (did some very worthy things too). That alongside the idiocy of Leninist ‘communist’ parties forming and working to infiltrate Labour Parties with the idea of ‘capturing the state’ led to socialists being marginalised for a long, long time.

                    Hopefully, we’ll be seeing things coming to a head over the next few years and socialism coming in from the cold at last. It has to if we’re going to have any chance of extricating ourselves from this mess we’re in.

                    • weka

                      Leaving aside how things get organised for a moment, there’s alway the issue of how you get everyone to believe roughly the same thing i.e. that socialism is desirable.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      there’s alway the issue of how you get everyone to believe roughly the same thing

                      Yeah.

                      Good luck with that.

                      That said, in a sense you’re describing the Overton Window.

                      And that said, we know from complex system analysis that major changes are often preceded by a lengthy period of apparent stasis.

                    • McFlock

                      Overton window: the range of ideas the public will accept.

                      Sort of the problem, but not in the “people will never accept it” way. Even in a socialist society, a certain percentage of the people will support capitalism: the overton window will be too wide. So in a democratic system, capitalists will always have a chance to gain power again. In a non-democratic system, capitalists will be driven underground as a rot.

                      Either way, even a socialist society is doomed to eventually repeat the problems of the past, including falling for neoliberalism again.

                    • weka

                      What’s lengthy in that situation OAB?

                      I was thinking about what McFlock had said, about swinging back and forth. Unless everyone wants socialism I can’t see how that wouldn’t happen. And I can’t see how to make everyone want socialism, unless we devolve to small groups where socialism becomes naturally more attractive. Even then it’s likely that some of those groups will remain a dominating system because that’s how most of us are socialised, and then we have to protect ourselves, and now we’re back at the dawn of civilisation starting all over again with that shit.

                      Douglas Adams had right, it was a mistake coming down from the trees in the first place 😉

                    • Bill

                      the issue of how you get everyone to believe roughly the same thing i.e. that socialism is desirable..

                      You don’t. It’s an idea that gets held in mind and expressed at opportune moments or junctures. You want to “get” people to believe, then your stepping off down the road of various authoritarianisms.

                    • Bill

                      @ McFlock.

                      A certain percentage of people supporting ideas of capitalism is neither here nor there. It’s only a problem when those people have power. In a democratic scenario (and others) their power is zip.

                • weka

                  what would you call Corbyn? And Corbyn Labour’s manifesto?

                  • DoublePlusGood

                    Given how everything has departed far from what it originally was, and everything is now neo-, I think it has to be considered to be neo-democratic neo-socialism…

                    • McFlock

                      Well, the vibe it creates in the population as a reaction to blairites, so maybe post-modern post-quasi-ternary-liberalist neo-democratic neosocialist? With bells on? 👿

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Only in the sense that the right will consistently, relentlessly invent new ways to tell old lies.

                      The interests expressed by the lies are the same lazy knuckledragging bunch that resist the Magna Carta and the UDoHR and the abolition of slavery (when it occurs).

                      Tories don’t change.

                • You do know that Social Democracy is basically the modern Labour Party philosophy, right? You’re probably not going to move either the UK or NZ labour party on that, so if you’re voting left, your options at that point are Mana or Greens. (who despite not outwardly looking super socialist and having a lot of liberal types in there, do actually have socialism written into their values and their approach to environmentalism)

                  That said, I agree that a more purely socialist approach without any elements of a command economy would be pretty ideal both politically and in terms of preventing climate change.

          • Matthew Whitehead 6.1.1.1.2

            It’s also worth considering that there’s another major axis to this election- that of Brexit. Most of the large parties are pro-brexit, they just disagree about the how. If we see a strong Libdem, green, and regional party showing, that will mean a lot of people were voting for a chance to back out of Brexit, too.

      • SpaceMonkey 6.1.2

        Exactly… the neoliberals have bought a foot in both camps.

      • WILD KATIPO 6.1.3

        Which is a pretty accurate summation of the same basic trend in many western govts unfortunately ,… with slight nuances on the theme.

        • RedLogix 6.1.3.1

          A vivid little picture going on here.

          Fundamentally the neo-libs were never all that interested in left/right politics. At least with the old conservative/socialist divide both parties could more or less agree on the objectives of governance; they merely disagreed on how to get there. Negotiating through this was largely a matter of trading off various self-interests and outcomes.

          Whereas the neo-libs never really believed in government at all. They’re a different beastie with quite incompatible values. Their goal is to stall the process of political compromise and discredit the very idea of a social contract.

          • WILD KATIPO 6.1.3.1.1

            Excellent .

            The small govt of the neo liberals ( one where you need a microscope to detect it ) pretty much says it all , – that and aiming to privatize everything to the point where a govt does nothing much of anything of relevance barring having to field off the obvious question of ‘ why do we need a government at all , then ? ‘.

          • Adrian Thornton 6.1.3.1.2

            @ RedLogix+1 Well put.
            Which is why I can’t understand why they still hang on to the traditional Left parties that they have infiltrated,that worked very well as a vehicle for their project for a time, that is undeniable, but it is also plainly obvious that that time is over, and the institutions of the western Left are no longer a effective delivery vessel for their ideology.

            • WILD KATIPO 6.1.3.1.2.1

              Well , barring running off and creating an ACT party , perhaps remaining in those party’s is more advantageous in keeping them pinned down,… recalling that NZ was the guinea pig test nation for the neo liberal experiment, … and the UK’s population size makes it that much harder to herd the sheep , so to speak…

          • Halfcrown 6.1.3.1.3

            Agree with you there Red, I was very comfortable voting for the old National party who had members of integrity and values and were concerned for NZ. like Sir Keith and later members like Mike Minogue, who managed to keep the likes of Richardson in here place, But this fucking lot with no values who are stuffing this once great little country with their neo ideas I would not cross the road to piss on them if they were on fire.

  7. Adrian Thornton 7

    Check out this slip from Damian Green, where he pretty much he acknowledges that the conservatives are under a real threat from a coalition.
    The conservatives internal polling must be real bad if they are now giving public credibility to the real chance of a Corbyn win.

    What a disaster for May’s campaign, it reminds me a lot of Clinton’s own train wreck, the more the public get to see and hear from them the more they dislike them.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoTy2JRQavA

    • saveNZ 7.1

      The public want change but they want a certain type of change…. a vote for Democrats and Labour UK under Miliband was just going to keep the same old neoliberal models going…… the public don’t want that.

      Corbyn and Bernie got peoples imagination going because they come across as people of integrity, not just manufactured careerist politicians. They have stood for what they believe in, for most of their lives and that is something to deeply admire, these days.

      Integrity and bravery in a politician is hard to find. As is someone who can stomach the gross level of attacks from all areas that politician’s like them find themselves in, often being stabbed in the back from their own side, which in itself can be the down fall of the party.

      Look at Little in NZ under attack with litigation from Scenic Hotels, disgusting attacks constantly in MSM and so forth.

      Last election, Cunliffe absolutely disgustingly smeared, and even neoliberal Goff, framed by the SIS. Not really easy to win, in this climate of big money and organised attacks, controlling everything.

      • WILD KATIPO 7.1.1

        I’ll not forget that marvelous speech Cunliffe gave right at the beginning when he was voted in – pretty much a Mickey Joseph Savage speech. Something that I thought I’d never ever hear again.

        And those bastard neo liberals in both Labour ( the ABC’s ) and National inline with the MSM teamed on him.

        It was a disgraceful display of the fetid influence that ideology has on this country.

        • RedLogix 7.1.1.1

          NZ has a history of getting virulent and persistent strains of bad ideas. Neoliberalism is going to be with us long after it’s been shit-canned everywhere else in the world.

          Working overseas this past four years has really opened my eyes to just how shitty the class war has been back home. NZ is an expensive place to live, yet wages are low and employers have far too much power. A few doing very nicely thank you, the rest are fucked.

          Yes our still relatively low population density mitigates the worst aspects of this inequality, socially and environmentally … but ultimately we fall so very short of what we could and should be. Like you I felt a surge of pride when I saw that speech from Cunliffe, a moment of hope in an adult life of bleakness.

          It was a piece of work watching them snuff him out.

        • Stunned Mullet 7.1.1.2

          “It was a disgraceful display of the fetid influence that ideology has on this country.”

          Oh the irony !

        • Halfcrown 7.1.1.3

          Wild @ 7.1.1

          I agree with there mate 100% Don’t really watched much of the media these days except Aljazeera, and as soon that lying ugly fucking arsole called Gower appears I change channels. It is a pity that the Labour party don’t remind the punters of the fucking lies this arsole along with that other twat called Armstrong said about Cunliffe at the last election, and question more this fucking arsoles integrity everytime he appears on the TV.

    • dukeofurl 7.2

      Clinton got 3 mill more votes than trump because they disliked her more ?

      Oh that must be the reason she got 3.5 mill more votes than Sanders, because they disliked her ( that was in a smaller total too).

      Is this how you get around the problem that your views are shared by a very tiny minority.

      Corbyn is a terrible leader, even in France Jean-Luc Mélenchon was streets ahead, if it was a presidential race in UK he wouldnt even be in top 3.
      Fortunately its a parliamentary system, where he isnt a dictator

      • Adrian Thornton 7.2.1

        @dukeofurl What the hell are you talking about, Clinton lost the most winnable election in US history, against a baboon, and even with pretty much all media in her pocket, or has that fact evaded you?

        Oh and she and the DNC had to cheat to beat Sanders….

        Is this how you get around the problem that your political ideology is being consigned to the dustbin of history as we speak (where it belongs I might add).

        Corbyn will be a very good and inclusive leader, showing quite clearly the way forward for all western democracy’s who want fair and equal societies for ALL their citizens.

        BTW Bernie Sanders is now the most popular politician in the USA, except inwith the corrupt DNC establishment it seems, where as Clinton’s popularity in the USA is at it’s ALL TIME low…lower than Trump for fucks sake….
        https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/17/everyone-loves-bernie-sanders-except-democratic-party

        http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-08/new-poll-shows-hillary-favorability-sinking-all-time-low-35-trump-soars

        SO if there is anyone around here beating a dead horse…that would be you pal.

        • McFlock 7.2.1.1

          but didn’t she get more votes than the baboon?

          And how precisely did the dnc cheat?

          • Adrian Thornton 7.2.1.1.1

            “And how precisely did the dnc cheat?”

            Are you actually serious?

            • dukeofurl 7.2.1.1.1.1

              Apparently the DNC cheated 3.5 mill times !
              Each state democratic organisation runs its own caucuses, nothing to do with the DNC. [ where Sanders did quite well]
              While primaries are run by the state government.
              Clinton was supported by most major democratic leaders and virtually all unions. Most have cheated to get that as well.

              Back to Corbyn, if he wasnt the leader ( and if he wasnt so bad at it) May wouldnt have dared call an early election ( but I think she”ll win as the UK polls have a problem getting the right numbers let alone for a FPTP type election)

              • The DNC did cheat in that it is supposed, according to its bylaws, to be a neutral arbiter in the primaries that doesn’t support any one campaign. They pre-concluded that Hillary was the likely winner and backed her. (that’s not to say that if, say, Biden were also running, they wouldn’t have backed both Biden and Clinton. But they bias candidates who can win a traditional campaign rather than simply letting the primaries sort themselves out)

                It’s also very likely that key Party figures were doing a campaign of backroom whispers and leaning on the scale, not just the DNC itself. That’s not really appropriate in my book, but hey, the DNC’s defense of these allegations is basically that if they wanted, they could totally have chosen the candidate in a smoky back room. Yeah.

                • dukeofurl

                  You still havent explained how the DNC in Washington got Clinton to be 3.5 mill votes ahead, spread across something like 30+ states.
                  leaning on a scale doesnt give 3.5 mill more votes

                  In each state Clinton and Sanders have to run their own campaigns with their own money.
                  That was Clintons advantage, shes been running and raising money since 2012. Sanders started late, has no background organisation in Democratic party ( because he wasnt a democrat!)

                  • Clinton started off with a name recognition lead and looked like she was heading for a coronation. Sanders’ performance in the primary is practically record-breaking, closing a huge gap and turning a one-woman race into a real competition, however he failed to make up ground in large states after Clinton’s win in the south on Super Tuesday, and he had several votes stolen from him by rogue committtees.

                    I’m not saying definitively that the cheating swung the election, it’s entirely possible Clinton’s lead was too large for Sanders to close in a single primary campaign no matter what he did. (I’m inclined to think that in some ways he could have actually campaigned more effectively and closed the gap, but you may be right, it was certainly a ridiculous ask for him to win given all the initial odds against him and the right-wing bent to media in the US) But I am saying that there was undeniably cheating (whatever you think of the motivations of the people who initially leaked those stories, they were pretty well corroborated after the fact) and it is unacceptable that the DNC broke its own rules, which is why they’re being sued by Sanders supporters for breaking their own bylaws.

                    As for him not being a Democrat, he’s caucused with them his entire national political career and is now part of the senior senate democratic leadership team, and is campaigning with the DNC’s new chair, but yes, he’s still technically an independent because he’s proud of having won even with an establishment democrat who was acting as a spoiler against him. Yes, he was an outsider candidate, but the DNC doesn’t need to put its thumb on the scale against outsiders. It can just let what happens happen, that’s the whole point of internal party democracy, weak candidates will almost always lose when there’s a competitive field. Whatever you think of the sources of information, it is absolutely credible that for instance the DNC was passing information to Clinton’s campaign, as Donna Brazil lost her job with CNN because of that story breaking about how she abused her position regarding her conflict of interest.

                    Also, have a look into current polling on Sanders and Clinton. Clinton is underwater with a mid-30s approval rating now, whereas Sanders is literally the most popular politician in the entire US, according to Fox, (outpolling even some key democratic achievements like Obamacare, and with mid-sixties approval ratings) who don’t exactly have an incentive to pump up his popularity. This isn’t a pushover politician, if he had gone on to the general election he likely would have won in a landslide, (three-way polling during the primary predicted he would start out with at least a six point lead on Trump, and he had much more effective populist talking points against him, wheras that same polling predicted Clinton was pretty much tied with Trump and was relying on his campaign self-destructing) and brought in new Democrats to Congress with him.

                    • RedLogix

                      I don’t usually go in for this … but yes, +++++1

                      Whichever way you cut it the difference on the ground was palpable. Clinton could barely fill photo-ops using long tele-lens’, while Sanders was filling halls and stadiums to capacity with enthusiastic crowds.

                      It was a simple as that.

                    • McFlock

                      Interesting thing is how much she also gave to Sanders’ campaign. Was her conflict with CNN because she tilted the debates for Clinton to look good, or the democrat candidates in general?

                      As for the current polling – well, yeah. Bernie’s a socialist politician in office facing one of the more regressive presidents in fifty years. Clinton’s largely back with private charity work now.

                      DNC folks didn’t like Sanders, but what actual biased things did they do?

                    • McFlock- Donna Brazil did not pass any information to the Sanders campaign. That’s the whole point, not only was what she was doing unethical in terms of compromising the rules of the debate, but she did it specifically to favour one candidate.

                      If there had been multiple establishment candidates in the race, I am sure she and other DNC candidates would have cheated in favour of all the establishment candidates. But that’s not the race that happened.

                      I’m not sure how it’s valid to dismiss polls both before and after the election- my point was that he polled better in both situations, so it’s clear that neither was an outlier.

                      As to other biased things that they did, let me condense it by omitting anything we don’t actually have hard evidence of and listing only the most offensive:

                      * The DNC didn’t attempt to compromise between the Hillary campaign’s preferred debate schedule and her competitor- they scheduled a very few debates when she was running a low-presence strategy in the primaries, and then suddenly added more when it was clear that it was hurting her not debating and the extra media was benifitting Sanders.

                      * The DNC disabled the Bernie campaign’s access to their database because the campaign reported that it was insecure and showing other campaigns’ data, which is what you are supposed to do if you gain inappropriate access to data.

                      * DNC officials accused the campaign of condoning violence after their friends in Nevada stole votes from Bernie, taking video out of context.

                      * The DNC had a donation-laundering process worked out that gave money indirectly to Hillary that was supposed to be spent on local state contests.

                    • Excuse me, when I said “she and other DNC candidates”, I of course meant “she [Donna Brazil] and other DNC staff”.

            • McFlock 7.2.1.1.1.2

              Totally.

              I’m not doubting that several in the DNC preferred Clinton over Sanders. But actual evidence of cheating? They didn’t rig a vote in caucus. Even the hacked debate prep emails never showed that Sanders wasn’t given equivalent prep information. Any primary irregularities would have been under the purview of the state, not party, electoral commissioners, many of whom were republican.

              I mean, I get that you take the statement “the DNC rigged the primaries” as being as self evident as “we need air to breath”, but what actually are you basing that on? That someone maybe said mean things about Sanders behind his back? That we saw what the DNC told Clinton but not what they told Sanders?

              And yes, Clinton lost the election, but she got 1% more votes than Trump. Does that say as much about Clinton as it does the electoral college, seriously?

              • adam

                So the court case against the DNC where they have admitted they picked Clinton – I’m guessing you missed it? The DNC did rigged the game, and have admitted it.

                As for your popular vote argument, it’s painful, you sound like a whinging broken record. The real world meant that the democrat’s went into the election knowing they had to win the colleges. They did not do that – so the DNC rigged it, only to pick a loser.

                So seriously enough of you defense of the loser h.r.c. She cheated and she lost, we know it – time to move on.

                • McFlock

                  Ok, how did they rig the game? That’s what you never answer. Matthew said they were biased, but how did that actually manifest itself?

                  As for the court case, if it’s the one you just linked to – where did they say they rigged it?

                  Sure, they said that there was nothing legal stopping them from rigging it, and described the case the Sanders crowd would have to prove if indeed there had been rigging going on, but when you read the transcript of the hearing did you notice all the times the DNC lawyers used the word “purportedly” or variants thereof?

                  • adam

                    So now you did not miss the case?

                    So now you accept that they can run an election in a impartial and unfair manner, is that what you are saying?

                    Or that impartiality can’t be defined?

                    Because that was my reading of the primary material presented by the DNC, and by the way the case is not settled yet. My link was to why the DNC wanted the case to be dismissed, which the judge agreed there was no case to dismiss. So the case is playing out as we speak, and the DNC are on trial over impartiality, or in other words – gaming the game.

                    • McFlock

                      The judge is considering whether the case should be dismissed.

                      I googled it after your link, so see if your statement ” The DNC did rigged the game, and have admitted it” was accurate. It wasn’t.

                      You seem to have basically misunderstood the position. The DNC lawyers didn’t admit there was rigging, they simply said that the plaintiff’s case is bullshit because even if rigging occurred, it wouldn’t be litigable for a variety of reasons.

                      They also argued that if rigging had occurred and if rigging were litigable, the plaintiffs haven’t presented anyone actually harmed by it so no damages were incurred. It’s a standard defense in depth, like lawyers do all the time.

                      And at the moment the litigants are waiting to hear if the case will go to trial.

                    • McFlock is correct that the DNC haven’t admitted to cheating in the primary, even though on its face several of the actions taken by DNC officials were obviously cheating from an organisation whose purpose is to help run the primaries in a neutral fashion, and is, according to the Democratic Party bylaws, not supposed to be partisan until a candidate is selected in the convention.

                      What their lawyer is effectively saying is that there’s no legal requirement that the Democratic Party run a competitive primary, they could simply select the candidate in a backroom if they wanted. He’s wrong of course, the bylaws require a competitive primary, and they are contractually enforceable even if you accept his argument that the DNC is a corporation, not a political party. They would have to change the bylaws first, and even then, if they solicited any donations in a way that promised a primary before that change, they would either be obliged to return the money or run the primary.

                      Essentially, he’s arguing that even if the facts are as the Bernie supporters claim, there’s no case because the DNC is a private corporation that can do whatever it wants. (which also makes no sense because then it would be accountable to shareholders and possibly a board, neither of which it has)

                      This is good legal strategy, although it’s completely moronic PR and probably not worth winning the case if they end up getting soundbites like that trumpeted out over the media.

          • RedLogix 7.2.1.1.2

            They did it by the book, but the super delegates unquestionably skew the process right from the outset.

  8. Venezia 8

    Bernie arrives in the UK today, so watch him light up their young!

  9. Adrian Thornton 9

    Yes that is exactly right, here is Dennis Skinner saying in 2015 that we are entering an era of non spin…..I believe he is right.
    He also has some pretty insightful comments on Cobyns future.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHGDDMAP5qU&t=7s

    The propaganda model of manufacturing consent is now plainly on it’s last legs, it worked extremely effectively for a long time, but most people have been pushed too far for too long by this same method, that they are now (rightly) very suspicious and untrusting of established media, and the politicians they seem to support.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_Consent

  10. SpaceMonkey 10

    Great news! Who woulda thunk it, eh? That policies putting people first might actually resonate with the people… 😀

    • Johan 10.1

      To SpaceMonkey,
      Me thinks that greed and power will not be relinquished easily;-))

  11. swordfish 11

    It’s not only Conservative Central Office where nerves are jangling.

    The entire UK polling industry also seems to be in a state of collective nervousness … both in the shadow of the 2015 debacle … and because it’s currently producing an unusually wide range of results, one extreme of which is suggesting a hung parliament that many felt was unthinkable even just a week or so ago.

    Latest Tory poll leads:

    YouGov: 3pt
    Survation: 6pt
    SurveyMonkey 6pt
    FT poll of polls: 9pt
    Kantar: 10pt
    ICM: 12pt
    ComRes: 12pt
    Panelbase: 15pt

    At least they can’t be accused of deliberately ‘clustering’ as they were at the 2015 election.

    All down to ‘house effects’ (ie systematic methodological differences between polling companies). The key point of difference being how aggressively they weight for turnout.

    ICM, Kantar and ComRes take a particularly ruthless approach (in response to the 2015 poll failure).

    ICM’s 12 point Tory lead, for instance, would have been a mere 3 points (with all its normal demographic and political weights) before they applied their aggressive turnout model, which significantly down-weights younger and more working class voters on the assumption that the 2015 pattern of turnout will be repeated.

    • weka 11.1

      What’s a turnout model?

      I assume most of them aren’t polling constituencies and then adding up the seats? How come?

      I liked the word ‘churn’.

      Also, it’s not without precedent for elections to move significantly, right? Isn’t that what landslide actually means?

      • swordfish 11.1.1

        turnout model = how pollsters deal with turnout in their weighting

        Do they base it more on respondent demographics – essentially ignoring respondent’s self-reported likelihood to vote and instead aggressively down-weighting younger and poorer C2DE voters on the assumption that the 2015 pattern of turnout will be repeated (ICM, Kantar and ComRes)

        or

        do they continue to use self-reported likelihood to vote (albeit with variations) – Opinium, MORI and YouGov, for instance, still base their turnout models on people’s answers rather than their demographics, but they’ve also made post-2015 changes. YouGov and MORI now weight-down people who didn’t vote in past elections as likely non-voters (as opposed to specifically targeting younger and more working class respondents) while Opinium down-weights people who say they will vote for a party but disapprove of its leader.

  12. Tony Veitch (not the partner-bashing 3rd rate broadcaster 12

    I think Jeremy will win – and by a landslide – as many as 300 seats!

    But the big question is then – how will the right, the neoliberals react?

    Just as if Bernie had won the nomination and the presidency, how would the right have reacted?

    They sure as hell won’t like to see all their ‘hard won’ gains being given back to the people!

    • Stunned Mullet 12.1

      You think he’ll win by a margin of 300 seats ? I think that’s a little bit optimistic.

      • Wayne 12.1.1

        Presumably Tony actually meant that Labour would get 300 seats, not that they would have a margin of 300 seats. It would be a comfortable majority in a coalition with SNP.

        We will know in a week.

        Me, I am still betting on a May win.

        The Yougov poll seems more like a survey, not a snapshot poll. So is it really reliable given it is so much out of line with other polls?

        It just seems highly unlikely that 20% of voters would change from the Conservatives to Labour in just a few days. In my experience voters are not that fickle.

        • Halfcrown 12.1.1.1

          Yes you are right there Wayne

        • Tony Veitch (not the partner-bashing 3rd rate broadcaster 12.1.1.2

          Well, we shall certainly see in just a few days!

          Perhaps it’s wishful thinking on my part, but I think there is a real groundswell of change in the UK which will be as startling to the establishment as the Atlee win in 1945.

          And of course I mean that Labour would get 300 seats, not a 300 seat majority – they’ll have to go into coalition with probably the SNP – which itself will cause some problems.

          But Halfcrown is right – expect some pretty grubby deeds from the right – their sense of entitlement will drive them to new lows!

          Just like the National Party, in fact!

        • weka 12.1.1.3

          “The Yougov poll seems more like a survey, not a snapshot poll. So is it really reliable given it is so much out of line with other polls?”

          Did you read Martin Baxter’s opinion (linked in the post). He’s a pretty reliable commentator as far as I can tell and does his own analysis.

          “It just seems highly unlikely that 20% of voters would change from the Conservatives to Labour in just a few days. In my experience voters are not that fickle.”

          That’s not what’s happened though. The change has been over a long period of time and you’re not accounting for the previous non-vote.

        • dukeofurl 12.1.1.4

          They cant be compared with other ‘phone polls’ which sample a new group of 2000 each time.
          Its a survey panel which they follow all the way through- much like the LA Times poll technique which did predict Trump would win

          “Every day YouGov interviews approximately 7,000 panellists about their voting intentions in the 2017 General Election. Over the course of a week, data are collected from around 50,000 panellists. ”
          “YouGov is using a recently developed technique called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (or ‘MRP’ for short) to produce estimates for small geographies (local authorities for the EU referendum, states in the 2016 American Presidential election, and Parliamentary constituencies for the 2017 General Election).”
          https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/

          The benefits seem to be able to give constituency level data, which is of course what matters in UK.
          Does it work and are they drawing the right conclusions ?

          next week we will find out

        • swordfish 12.1.1.5

          Thing is, Wayne, the latest conventional Yougov poll has precisely the same tiny 3 point Tory lead as this experimental 2017 General Election model.

          As a former pollster for the UK Labour Party has tweeted

          This (3 point Tory lead in conventional poll) much riskier from Yougov than their model. Bread & butter of their biz is representative samples. Must think race fundamentally changed.

          I agree, however, with your general scepticism , Wayne, – though I’m not too sure where you get the “20% of voters would change from the Conservatives to Labour in just a few days” from. I don’t think any pollster has suggested anything of the sort.

        • Macro 12.1.1.6

          The real cruncher for the Tories has been their dispicable Manifesto – not only hitting hard the older generations with their “dementia tax” – and pensioners have been turning off the Tories in droves by all accounts – but also attacking the younger generations with their cuts on school lunches in favour of school breakfast. This is calculated to affect around 100,000 school children from working poor families as well. Plus May has not fronted up to the media or opposition leaders and the Corby Textor Slogan “Strong and Stable” has gone down like a lead ballon. The populace are waking up to the obvious fact that the Tories frankly don’t care about the average person. The comments from some Tory MP’s have been appallingly insensitive. I’ve just returned from two months in the UK and from my observations this has been the most appauling campaign by the Tories who went into this snap election with an arrogance that was palpable.
          I’m not surprised in the least as to the current polling. J C has run an outstanding campaign and whilst the media have tried to trip him up and the drive a wedge between him and the rest of his Party – overall they have been very disciplined and he has shown himself to be a man of the people. The Labour manifesto actually offers hope to a country that over the past decade has been in steady decline. If you don’t believe me – leave the motorways and just take drive down any A road you like and count the potholes. As for the towns! Walk down any High Street and count the number of empty shops and the number of people forced into begging. Ask any person who is not a CEO or official of some form or other (there are two economies in the UK – the haves and the have nots) They will tell you quite plainly the the country is in a state of decay – and it shows.

    • Halfcrown 12.2

      You have a very valid point there Tony, They won’t give up without a fight and we must remember their war chests will be bottomless. Stand by for a massive campaign by the media and there is certainly going to be a lot of dirty bloody tricks and politics by the rightwing arsoles.
      I doubt if Corbyn will win with a 300 seat majority, if at all.

  13. Michael 13

    I’d wait until the votes are counted before cheering the Tories’ defeat. I also note that UK Labour is refusing to collaborate with the SNP after the election – although I suppose that could change rapidly if Corbyn and comrades see the keys to Number 10 remaining within Tory grasp. But if Labour wins this election, and if it can form a government, it will mean a real defeat for the Tories and neoliberalism too (some might say it represents a defeat for common sense and sanity but vox populi, vox dei and all that). Whatever happens, it’s certainly exciting for a political junkie like me (and helps divert my attention from the moribund political landscape here in NZ).

  14. james 14

    It will be interesting – But it wouldn’t surprise me if Corbyn still loses badly.

    No doubt anything other than a mammoth thrashing will be hailed as a win by the left.

    Excused will include but not be limited to

    Bloody Blairrights.
    Bloody media was stacked against him
    Bloody neolibs
    Bloody tories told lies and people believed them
    Bloody voting public are idiots.

    • The decrypter 14.1

      Bloody james,—–He started this bloody post yesterday, Got me all excited it did.

      • weka 14.1.1

        Lol. I noticed James’s angst yesterday too. I was already intending to write the post from when Coates first tweeted a few days ago what was about to be released. James does seem worried though. He’s right, because I’ll take that worry as a win too 😆

    • Ed 14.2

      You seem a bit worried, James.

      • James 14.2.1

        A little hit for sure. But happy to admit it and also that my predictions were wrong

        I know it’s a strange concept for some on here who think they are intellectual goliants who can never be wrong.

        As a mortal – I’m happy to admit when I make a call that’s proven wrong as opposed to making excuses.

        But before you get too much joy from the poll results- remember – actual results may vary.

  15. weka 15

    Alastair Thompson reckons the critical parts of the electorate are moving away from the Conservatives (pensioners, men)


    I doubt there has ever been such a rapid change in political fortunes in the course of a contemporary election campaign. /6

    It’s helpful to observe that in this case there is a clear ratonale and narrative that explains the spectacular movements. /7

    Alastair Thompson‏ @althecat 8m8 minutes ago

  16. All Jeremy Corbyn has to do is keep polishing up the handle of the big front door and he will get there. And I don’t mean that he has to be a yes man lackey such as the one Gilbert and Sullivan mentioned in their lyrics.

    Hehehe I loved Gilbert and Sullivan as a kid ( strange childhood lol !) so here’s two of my favs 🙂

    Gilbert & Sullivan – When I Was A Lad/HMS Pinafore (Martyn Green …
    Video for martin green polished up the handles youtube▶ 2:49
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZlGCLSt8B4

    • Lol ! – so delightfully stuffy and so very English – ahaahahaha ! This one should be Corbyn’s victory anthem – except Corbyns not into pompous old elitist gits l0l !

      Gilbert and Sullivan – “I Am the Very Model of a Modern Major-General …
      Video for very model of a modern major general you tube▶ 2:54

  17. left_forward 17

    Whatever – this Labour rally in the polls is incredibly encouraging.
    Perhaps the globally exposed Trump madness is finally waking people up – a rejection of the utter selfishness of the right – can’t resist such a thought!

  18. web-developer 18

    The best part of all of this is the small moves to Labour on an aggregate level masks a huge shift at a constituency level.

    UKIP registered 12.6% of the vote there in 2015, but only got one seat. What happened was the majority in a large number of Labour seats and Liberal Democrat seats were hobbled by UKIP (mainly Labour seats, the LDs separately didn’t do themselves any favours).

    Now that those pro-leave Labour voters have got what they want out of UKIP, they are going to be filtering back to Labour. Erstwhile LD voters disappointed with the relationship their party had with the Conservatives may also be as well as their tally continues to drop.

    So a +5pp gain overall may be unlocking dozens of electorates at a time. I did some math and there are 63 electorates where a combined Labour + UKIP tally from 2015 would flip Conservative seats.

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    Buzz from the Beehive Two fresh press releases had been posted when we checked the Beehive website at noon, both of them posted yesterday. In one statement, in the runup to Waitangi Day, Maori Crown Relations Minister Kelvin Davis drew attention to happenings on a Northland battle site in 1845. ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago
  • Ask Me Anything about the week to Feb 3
    It’s that time of the week again when I’m on the site for an hour for a chat in an Ask Me Anything with paying subscribers to The Kaka. Jump in for a chat on anything, including:Auckland’s catastrophic floods, which are set to cost insurers and the Government well over ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Political Roundup: 3 February 2023
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    2 days ago
  • The stagnant debates in our hermit kingdom of a political economy
    Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers (left) has published a 6,000 word manifesto called ‘Capitalism after the Crises’ arguing for ‘values-based capitalism’. Yet here in NZ we hear the same stale old rhetoric unchanged from the 1990s and early 2000s. Photo: Getty ImagesTLDR: The rest of the world is talking about inflation ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Lies, damned lies, and political polls.
    A couple of weeks ago, after NCEA results came out, my son’s enrolment at Auckland Uni for this year was confirmed - he is doing a BSc majoring in Statistics. Well that is the plan now, who knows what will take his interest once he starts.I spent a bit of ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 03-February-2023
    Kia ora. What a week! We hope you’ve all come through last weekend’s extreme weather event relatively dry and safe. Header image: stormwater ponds at Hobsonville Point. Image via Twitter. The week in Greater Auckland There’s been a storm of information and debate since the worst of the flooding ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    3 days ago
  • A New Day, a New Cease & Desist
    Hi,At 4.43pm yesterday it arrived — a cease and desist letter from the guy I mentioned in my last newsletter. I’d written an article about “WEWE”, a global multi-level marketing scam making in-roads into New Zealand. MLMs are terrible for many of the same reasons megachurches are terrible, and I ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago
  • Blowing Off The Froth: Why Chris Hipkins Must Ditch Three Waters.
    Time To Call A Halt: Chris Hipkins knows that iwi leaders possess the means to make life very difficult for his government. Notwithstanding their objections, however, the Prime Minister’s direction of travel – already clearly signalled by his very public demotion of Nanaia Mahuta – must be confirmed by an emphatic ...
    3 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #5 2023
    Open access notables Via PNAS, Ceylan, Anderson & Wood present a paper squarely in the center of the Skeptical Science wheelhouse:  Sharing of misinformation is habitual, not just lazy or biased. The signficance statement is obvious catnip: Misinformation is a worldwide concern carrying socioeconomic and political consequences. What drives ...
    3 days ago
  • Universities that punish reading – even of books from their own libraries
    Mark White from the Left free speech organisation Plebity looks at the disturbing trend of ‘book burning’ on US campuses In the abstract, people mostly agree that book banning is a bad thing. The Nazis did us the favor of being very clear about it and literally burning books, but ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    3 days ago
  • Hipkins has a chance to show he is more effective in getting results  than Ardern in his Canberra t...
      Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has undergone a stern baptisim of fire in his first week in his new job, but it doesn’t get any easier. Next week, he has a vital meeting  in Canberra with his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese, where he has to establish ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on extending the fuel/public transport subsidies
    As PM Chris Hipkins says, it’s a “no brainer” to extend the fuel tax cut, half price public subsidy and the cut to the road user levy until mid-year. A no braoner if the prime purpose is to ease the burden on people struggling to cope with the cost of ...
    3 days ago
  • U-turn on fuel taxes could pump up poll support for Hipkins and Co but the poor – perhaps – won...
    Buzz from the Beehive Cost-of-living pressures loomed large in Beehive announcements over the past 24 hours. The PM was obviously keen to announce further measures to keep those costs in check and demonstrate he means business when he talks of focusing his government on bread-and-butter issues. His statement was headed ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Mike’s Cracked Record
    Poor Mike Hosking. He has revealed himself in his most recent diatribe to be one of those public figures who is defined, not by who he is, but by who he isn’t, or at least not by what he is for, but by what he is against. Jacinda’s departure has ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    3 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: Chris Hipkins hires a lobbyist to run the Beehive
    New Zealand is the second least corrupt country on earth according to the latest Corruption Perception Index published yesterday by Transparency International. But how much does this reflect reality? The problem with being continually feted for world-leading political integrity – which the Beehive and government departments love to boast about ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago
  • Pick o’ the links: Brown vs Fish; Brown vs everyone
    TLDR: Including my pick of the news and other links in my checks around the news sites since 4am. Paying subscribers can see them all below the fold.In Aotearoa’s political economyBrown vs Fish Read more ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Pick o’ the links: Brown vs Fish; Brown vs everyone
    TLDR: Including my pick of the news and other links in my checks around the news sites since 4am. Paying subscribers can see them all below the fold.In Aotearoa’s political economyBrown vs Fish Read more ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Dawn Chorus: Classic middle class welfare to win 'Ford Ranger Man'
    In other countries, the target-rich cohorts of swinging voters are given labels such as Mondeo Man’, ‘White Van Man,’ ‘Soccer Moms’ and ‘Little Aussie Battlers.’ Here, the easiest shorthand is ‘Ford Ranger Man’as seen here parked outside a Herne Bay restaurant, inbetween two SUVs. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Dawn Chorus: Classic middle class welfare to win 'Ford Ranger Man'
    In other countries, the target-rich cohorts of swinging voters are given labels such as Mondeo Man’, ‘White Van Man,’ ‘Soccer Moms’ and ‘Little Aussie Battlers.’ Here, the easiest shorthand is ‘Ford Ranger Man’as seen here parked outside a Herne Bay restaurant, inbetween two SUVs. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Government confirms a light rail rethink possible
    Transport Minister and now also Minister for Auckland, Michael Wood has confirmed that the light rail project is part of the government’s policy refocus. Wood said the light rail project was under review as part of a ministerial refocus on key Government projects. “We are undertaking a stocktake about how ...
    4 days ago
  • Why Nicola Willis is door-knocking in Johnsonville
    Sometime before the new Prime Minister Chris Hipkins announced that this year would be about “bread and butter issues”, National’s finance spokesperson Nicola Willis decided to move from Wellington Central and stand for Ohariu, which spreads across north Wellington from the central city to Johnsonville and Tawa. It’s an ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • “With great power comes great responsibility”: we’ve all heard that, but stepping up to it is ...
    They say a week is a long time in politics. For Mayor Wayne Brown, turns out 24 hours was long enough for many of us to see, quite obviously, “something isn’t right here…”. That in fact, a lot was going wrong. Very wrong indeed. Mainly because it turns ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    4 days ago
  • The escalator rises again
    One of the most effective, and successful, graphics developed by Skeptical Science is the escalator.  The escalator shows how global surface temperature anomalies vary with time, and illustrates how "contrarians" tend to cherry-pick short time intervals so as to argue that there has been no recent warming, while "realists" recognise ...
    4 days ago
  • Dusk Chorus: ‘Bread and butter’ chosen over cutting emissions
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTLDR: Here’s a quick roundup of the news today for paying subscribers on a slightly frantic, very wet, and then very warm day. In Aotearoa’s political economy today Read more ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Dusk Chorus: ‘Bread and butter’ chosen over cutting emissions
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTLDR: Here’s a quick roundup of the news today for paying subscribers on a slightly frantic, very wet, and then very warm day. In Aotearoa’s political economy today Read more ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • We never get to feel one thing at a time, us grownups
    Tomorrow we have a funeral, and thank you all of you for your very kind words and thoughts — flowers, even.Our friend Michèle messaged: we never get to feel one thing at a time, us grownups, and oh boy is that ever the truth. Tomorrow we have the funeral, and ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Garrick Tremain’s view…
    ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Isn't this the rainy day we're supposed to be saving up for?
    Lynn and I have just returned from a news conference where Hipkins, fresh from visiting a relief centre in Mangere, was repeatedly challenged to justify the extension of subsidies to create more climate emissions when the effects of climate change had just proved so disastrous. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Isn't this the rainy day we're supposed to be saving up for?
    Lynn and I have just returned from a news conference where Hipkins, fresh from visiting a relief centre in Mangere, was repeatedly challenged to justify the extension of subsidies to create more climate emissions when the effects of climate change had just proved so disastrous. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Much excitement as Hipkins gets down to business – but can he defeat inflation with his devotion t...
    A  new Prime Minister, a revitalised Cabinet, and possibly  revised priorities – but is the political and, importantly, economic landscape  much different? Certainly  some within the news  media  were excited by the changes which Chris Hipkins announced yesterday or – before the announcement – by the prospect of changes in ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    4 days ago
  • E-bike incentives work
    Currently the government's strategy for reducing transport emissions hinges on boosting vehicle fuel-efficiency, via the clean car standard and clean car discount, and some improvements to public transport. The former has been hugely successful, and has clearly set us on the right path, but its also not enough, and will ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Hipkins’ need to strengthen focus on “bread and butter” issues suggests the Ardern team was lo...
    Buzz from the Beehive Before he announced his Cabinet yesterday, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins announced he would be flying to Australia next week to meet that country’s Prime Minister. And before Kieran McAnulty had time to say “Three Waters” after his promotion to the Local Government portfolio, he was dishing ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • 24,000 employed under Labour
    The quarterly labour market statistics were released this morning, showing that unemployment has risen slightly to 3.4%. There are now 99,000 people unemployed - 24,000 fewer than when Labour took office. So, I guess the Reserve Bank's plan to throw people out of work to stop wage rises "inflation", and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • February Stars.
    Another night of heavy rain, flooding, damage to homes, and people worried about where the hell all this water is going to go as we enter day twenty two of rain this year.Honestly if the government can’t sell Three Waters on the back of what has happened with storm water ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup:  Hipkins’ bread and butter reshuffle
    * Dr Bryce Edwards writes – Prime Minister Chris Hipkins continues to be the new broom in Government, re-setting his Government away from its problem areas in his Cabinet reshuffle yesterday, and trying to convince voters that Labour is focused on “bread and butter” issues. The ministers responsible for unpopular ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: Hipkins’ bread and butter reshuffle
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins continues to be the new broom in Government, re-setting his Government away from its problem areas in his Cabinet reshuffle yesterday, and trying to convince voters that Labour is focused on “bread and butter” issues. The ministers responsible for unpopular reforms in water and DHB centralisation ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    5 days ago
  • The Neverending Curse of MLMs
    Hi,It’s weird to me that in 2023 we still have people falling for multi-level marketing schemes (MLMs for short). There are Netflix documentaries about them, countless articles, and last year we did an Armchaired and Dangerous episode on them.Then you check a ticketing website like EventBrite and see this shit ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago
  • Dusk Chorus: Mahuta and Little demoted
    Nanaia Mahuta fell the furthest in the Cabinet reshuffle. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: PM Chris Hipkins unveiled a Cabinet this afternoon he hopes will show wavering voters that a refreshed Labour Government is focused on ‘bread and butter cost of living’ issues, rather than the unpopular, unwieldy and massively centralising ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Dusk Chorus: Mahuta and Little demoted
    Nanaia Mahuta fell the furthest in the Cabinet reshuffle. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: PM Chris Hipkins unveiled a Cabinet this afternoon he hopes will show wavering voters that a refreshed Labour Government is focused on ‘bread and butter cost of living’ issues, rather than the unpopular, unwieldy and massively centralising ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • We just need the Wayne to stop
    Shortly, the absolute state of Wayne Brown. But before that, something I wrote four years ago for the council’s own media machine. It was a day-in-the-life profile of their many and varied and quite possibly unnoticed vital services. We went all over Auckland in 48 hours for the story, the ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • 2023 More Reading: January (+ Old Phuul Update)
    Completed reads for January Lilith, by George MacDonald The Rime of the Ancient Mariner (poem), by Samuel Taylor Coleridge Christabel (poem), by Samuel Taylor Coleridge The Saga of Ragnar Lodbrok, by Anonymous The Lay of Kraka (poem), by Anonymous 1066 and All That, by W.C. Sellar and R.J. ...
    5 days ago
  • Is Britain doomed (again)?
    Pity the poor Brits.  They just can’t catch a break. After years of reporting of lying Boris Johnson, a change to a less colourful PM in Rishi Sunak has resulted in a smooth media pivot to an end-of-empire narrative.  The New York Times, no less, amplifies suggestions that Blighty ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    5 days ago
  • After The Deluge.
    On that day all the springs of the great deep burst forth, and the floodgates of the heavens were opened. And rain fell on the earth.Genesis 6:11-12THE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS that dumped a record-breaking amount of rain on Auckland this anniversary weekend will reoccur with ever-increasing frequency. The planet’s atmosphere is ...
    5 days ago
  • Minister of Education (who might be replaced later today) left it to his ministry to apologise for i...
    Buzz from the Beehive There has been plenty to keep the relevant Ministers busy in flood-stricken Auckland over the past day or two. But New Zealand, last time we looked, extends north of Auckland into Northland and south of the Bombay Hills all the way to the bottom of the ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • The other ‘big one’: How a megaflood could swamp California’s Central Valley
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters When early settlers came to the confluence of the Sacramento and American Rivers before the California Gold Rush, Indigenous people warned them that the Sacramento Valley could become an inland sea when great winter rains came. The storytellers described water filling the ...
    5 days ago
  • Tuesday's pick o' the links: Wayne Brown's WTF moment
    Wayne Brown managed a smile when meeting with Remuera residents, but he was grumpy about having to deal with “media drongos”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: In my pick of the news links found in my rounds since 4am for paying subscribers below the paywall:Wayne Brown moans about the media and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Tuesday's pick o' the links: Wayne Brown's WTF moment
    Wayne Brown managed a smile when meeting with Remuera residents, but he was grumpy about having to deal with “media drongos”. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: In my pick of the news links found in my rounds since 4am for paying subscribers below the paywall:Wayne Brown moans about the media and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: The gamechanger PM and polls
    Dr Bryce Edwards writes –  Last night’s opinion polls answered the big question of whether a switch of prime minister would really be a gamechanger for election year. The 1News and Newshub polls released at 6pm gave the same response: the shift from Jacinda Ardern to Chris Hipkins ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Dawn Chorus: Why 2023 will be a year of indecision & delay
    Hipkins’ aim this year will be to present a ‘low target’ for those seeking to attack Labour’s policies and spending. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: Anyone dealing with Government departments and councils who wants some sort of big or long-term decision out of officials or politicians this year should brace for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Dawn Chorus: Why 2023 will be a year of indecision & delay
    Hipkins’ aim this year will be to present a ‘low target’ for those seeking to attack Labour’s policies and spending. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: Anyone dealing with Government departments and councils who wants some sort of big or long-term decision out of officials or politicians this year should brace for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: The Gamechanger PM and polls
    Last night’s opinion polls answered the big question of whether a switch of prime minister would really be a gamechanger for election year. The 1News and Newshub polls released at 6pm gave the same response: the shift from Jacinda Ardern to Chris Hipkins has changed everything, and Labour is back ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    6 days ago
  • After the deluge – initial thoughts on the Auckland floods
    Over the last few years, it’s seemed like city after city around the world has become subject to extreme flooding events that have been made worse by impacts from climate change. We’ve highlighted many of them in our Weekly Roundup series. Sadly, over the last few days it’s been Auckland’s ...
    6 days ago
  • Ever Get the Feeling You've Been Cheated?
    And so the first month of the year draws to a close. It rained in Auckland on 21 out of the 31 days in January. Feels like summer never really happened this year. It’s actually hard to believe there were 10 days that it didn’t rain. Was it any better where ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Ani O’Brien: Luxon can’t afford to continue ‘small target’ politics
    A ‘small target’ strategy is not going to cut it anymore if National want to win the upcoming election. The game has changed and the game plan needs to change as well. Jacinda Ardern’s abrupt departure from the 9th floor has the potential to derail what looked to be an ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    6 days ago
  • Shaking up science
    When Grant Robertson talks about how the economy might change post-covid, one of the things he talks about is what he calls an unsung but interesting white paper on science. “It’s really important,” he says. The Minister in charge of the White Paper —  Te Ara Paerangi, Future Pathways ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • Dusk Chorus: Auckland schools closed til Feb 7
    The clean up has begun but more rain is on the way. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: Auckland’s floods over the last three days are turning into a macroeconomic event, with losses from Aotearoa’s biggest-ever climate event estimated at around $500 million and Auckland’s schools all closed for a week until ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Dusk Chorus: Auckland schools closed til Feb 7
    The clean up has begun but more rain is on the way. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTLDR: Auckland’s floods over the last three days are turning into a macroeconomic event, with losses from Aotearoa’s biggest-ever climate event estimated at around $500 million and Auckland’s schools all closed for a week until ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • How we get a new Prime Minister – it’s a simple matter of vice-regal appointment without a swear...
    The news media were at one ceremony by the looks of things. The Governor-General, the  Prime Minister and his deputy were at another. The news  media were at a swearing-in ceremony. The country’s leaders were at an appointment ceremony. The New Zealand Gazette record of what transpired says: Appointment of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Advancing our relationship in India
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta departs for India tomorrow as she continues to reconnect Aotearoa New Zealand to the world.  The visit will begin in New Delhi where the Foreign Minister will meet with the Vice President Hon Jagdeep Dhankar and her Indian Government counterparts, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago
  • Government Northland housing investment to spark transformational change
    Over $10 million infrastructure funding to unlock housing in Whangārei The purchase of a 3.279 hectare site in Kerikeri to enable 56 new homes Northland becomes eligible for $100 million scheme for affordable rentals Multiple Northland communities will benefit from multiple Government housing investments, delivering thousands of new homes for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Battle of Ohaeawai remembered
    A memorial event at a key battle site in the New Zealand land wars is an important event to mark the progress in relations between Māori and the Crown as we head towards Waitangi Day, Minister for Te Arawhiti Kelvin Davis said. The Battle of Ohaeawai in June 1845 saw ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • More Police deployed to the frontline
    More Police officers are being deployed to the frontline with the graduation of 54 new constables from the Royal New Zealand Police College today. The graduation ceremony for Recruit Wing 362 at Te Rauparaha Arena in Porirua was the first official event for Stuart Nash since his reappointment as Police ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Further support for upper North Island regions hit by significant weather
    The Government is unlocking an additional $700,000 in support for regions that have been badly hit by the recent flooding and storm damage in the upper North Island. “We’re supporting the response and recovery of Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel, Northland, and Bay of Plenty regions, through activating Enhanced Taskforce Green to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • The Princess Royal to visit New Zealand
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has welcomed the announcement that Her Royal Highness The Princess Royal, Princess Anne, will visit New Zealand this month. “Princess Anne is travelling to Aotearoa at the request of the NZ Army’s Royal New Zealand Corps of Signals, of which she is Colonel in Chief, to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government and horticulture sector target $12b in exports by 2035
    A new Government and industry strategy launched today has its sights on growing the value of New Zealand’s horticultural production to $12 billion by 2035, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor said. “Our food and fibre exports are vital to New Zealand’s economic security. We’re focussed on long-term strategies that build on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Cost of living support extended for families and businesses
    25 cents per litre petrol excise duty cut extended to 30 June 2023 – reducing an average 60 litre tank of petrol by $17.25 Road User Charge discount will be re-introduced and continue through until 30 June Half price public transport fares extended to the end of June 2023 saving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • More Kiwis in work as rising wages match inflation
    The strong economy has attracted more people into the workforce, with a record number of New Zealanders in paid work and wages rising to help with cost of living pressures. “The Government’s economic plan is delivering on more better-paid jobs, growing wages and creating more opportunities for more New Zealanders,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government boosts fund for Auckland flooding
    The Government is providing a further $1 million to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced today. “Cabinet today agreed that, given the severity of the event, a further $1 million contribution be made. Cabinet wishes to be proactive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • New Cabinet focused on bread and butter issues
    The new Cabinet will be focused on core bread and butter issues like the cost of living, education, health, housing and keeping communities and businesses safe, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has announced. “We need a greater focus on what’s in front of New Zealanders right now. The new Cabinet line ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Prime Minister to meet with PM Albanese
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will travel to Canberra next week for an in person meeting with Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese. “The trans-Tasman relationship is New Zealand’s closest and most important, and it was crucial to me that my first overseas trip as Prime Minister was to Australia,” Chris Hipkins ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government makes first payment to Auckland Flooding fund
    The Government is providing establishment funding of $100,000 to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced. “We moved quickly to make available this funding to support Aucklanders while the full extent of the damage is being assessed,” Kieran McAnulty ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government steps up to assist Auckland during flooding
    As the Mayor of Auckland has announced a state of emergency, the Government, through NEMA, is able to step up support for those affected by flooding in Auckland. “I’d urge people to follow the advice of authorities and check Auckland Emergency Management for the latest information. As always, the Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Poroporoaki: Titewhai Te Huia Hinewhare Harawira
    Ka papā te whatitiri, Hikohiko ana te uira, wāhi rua mai ana rā runga mai o Huruiki maunga Kua hinga te māreikura o te Nota, a Titewhai Harawira Nā reira, e te kahurangi, takoto, e moe Ka mōwai koa a Whakapara, kua uhia te Tai Tokerau e te kapua pōuri ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Enhanced Task Force Green Approved following Cyclone Hale
    Carmel Sepuloni, Minister for Social Development and Employment, has activated Enhanced Taskforce Green (ETFG) in response to flooding and damaged caused by Cyclone Hale in the Tairāwhiti region. Up to $500,000 will be made available to employ job seekers to support the clean-up. We are still investigating whether other parts ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • General Election to be held on 14 October 2023
    The 2023 General Election will be held on Saturday 14 October 2023, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today. “Announcing the election date early in the year provides New Zealanders with certainty and has become the practice of this Government and the previous one, and I believe is best practice,” Jacinda ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces resignation
    Jacinda Ardern has announced she will step down as Prime Minister and Leader of the Labour Party. Her resignation will take effect on the appointment of a new Prime Minister. A caucus vote to elect a new Party Leader will occur in 3 days’ time on Sunday the 22nd of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago