Remember First Past the Post? The UK election has largely been reported on the total percentage of people wanting to vote for various parties. But in the election itself, the only vote Brits get is for their local candidate, they don’t get to vote for the party. The party with the most candidates wins, not the party with the biggest national percentage. Where no party has an outright majority (i.e. more than 50% of the total seats), parties can form coalitions. So I haven’t really understood why the pre-election coverage focusses on national polling rather than electorate polling (anyone?).
Major market research firm Yougov have just released their electorate by electorate analysis results 9 days out from the General Election and it shows that on current voter intentions there would likely be a hung parliament.
YouGov projection for The Times predicts Tories will be 16 seats short of a majority, leading to hung parliament http://thetim.es/2rS9EuB
— The Times (@thetimes) May 31, 2017
From The Times (registration required for full article, 2 reads per week)
The Conservative Party could be in line to lose 20 seats and Labour gain nearly 30 in next week’s general election, according to new modelling by one of the country’s leading pollsters.
YouGov’s first constituency-by- constituency estimate of the election result predicts that the Tories would fall short of an overall majority by 16 seats, leading to a hung parliament.
The central projection of the model, which allows for a wide margin of error, would be a catastrophic outcome for Theresa May, who called the election when polls pointed to a landslide result. Her support appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto, including plans to make more elderly voters pay for home care.
YouGov’s model puts the Tories on course to win 310 seats, down from the 330 they held when the election was called. Labour would get 257 seats, up from 229, the Liberal Democrats ten, up from nine, the SNP 50, down from 54, the Greens one and Plaid Cymru three. This would leave the Tories 16 seats short of the 326 they need for an overall majority in the Commons.
YouGov predict a hung parliament. When Theresa May called the election, she expected a landslide. Labour can win next Thursday. pic.twitter.com/Sf7189OPT0
— George Aylett (@GeorgeAylett) May 30, 2017
I don’t know enough about UK politics but I’m guessing that a potential Labour government could be made up from Labour, Scottish National Party, Liberal Democrats, and Plaid Cymru. I don’t know how the Northern Ireland seats fit into that.
Some brief commentary from Sam Coates The Times’ reporter,
— BBC Daily Politics and Sunday Politics (@daily_politics) May 31, 2017
Reliable commenter Martin Baxter from Electoral Calculus still predicts a comfortable win for the Conservatives, but also commends Yougov for their new research methods, acknowledges they might be right, and gives a brief explanation.
Whatever happens on June 8th, Corbyn has proved that the electorate is interested social democratic policies and governance. The Tories’ supposed landslide has been reduce to at best a bit of a rockfall, and is potentially disastrous given they had another 3 years to govern before the next mandatory election and instead chose a mid term snap election based on opinion polls.
Maybe it also had something to do with the sentiment of this music video which topped the UK iTunes charts this week,