web analytics

UMR Poll August 2020

Written By: - Date published: 3:36 pm, August 12th, 2020 - 34 comments
Categories: act, class war, Dirty Politics, election 2020, greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, nz first, Politics, same old national, the praiseworthy and the pitiful - Tags: , , , ,

Yet another rogue poll, this time from UMR, has Labour on 52%, National 28%, Act 5.9%, Greens 5.4% and NZ First steady on 5.1%.

That would give Labour 65 seats, the Greens 7, NZ First 6 and ACT 7, National 35.

I stand by my earlier suggestion that if all 3 Government parties make it back, Labour will be inclined to invite both partners to join them around the cabinet table. That would provide the largest majority under MMP and one of the biggest ever in NZ political history.

Michael Appleton’s poll of polls (RR, CB, RM, UMR) reads as follows:

Polling average: :

Labour – 55%

National – 28%

Greens – 6%

Act – 5%

NZ First – 3%

Parliamentary composition:

Left – 78 seats, Right – 42 seats.

Those seat numbers don’t change significantly whether or not NZF are in or out, due to seat re-distribution.

One bright spot for the Tories in the UMR poll is that Judith Collins is their most popular leader since Bill English, snagging 20% support, only a tiny 41 points behind Jacinda Ardern.

Collin’s apparent response to the poll is a petulant call a few minutes ago for the election to be delayed till November.

Fat chance of that happening.

 

34 comments on “UMR Poll August 2020 ”

  1. Reality 1

    Had a text from 22 year old granddaughter re Collins press conference. Her comment "she cannot stand her". The wisdom of youth!

  2. Reality 2

    Granddaughter then said Collins made a fool of herself, and was talking rubbish. I complimented g'daughter on her wisdom.

    • Draco T Bastard 2.1

      Today's young are better educated than the old and are thus more likely to pick up the BS when its being thrown at them.

      • new view 2.1.1

        DTB. Are you 10 then. Your logic is illogical. Or are you just being smug and not that bright.

        [Fixed error in user name]

        • Draco T Bastard 2.1.1.1

          What's so illogical about better educated people being better at detecting BS?

      • Incognito 2.1.2

        Today’s young have also been immersed in Social Media from the day they were born, which is hardly conducive to discerning truth.

        • Draco T Bastard 2.1.2.1

          Or that the experience has refined their BS metre 😛

          And there's a difference from when I was at school to school today. When I was at school it was pretty much rote learning whereas today the young are taught more about how to think. A fairly important difference.

  3. Ad 3

    If Level 3 goes nationwide, Ardern will not close Parliament, and she will consult parties on delaying the election.

  4. Byd0nz 4

    Pathetic is not a strong enough word to describe the Nats press con. Pity this poll wasnt taken after that conference, it would have the Nats below 20. Oh dear, it's hard not to la la laugh.

    • Let's see: Nats over 20% behind in polls. Collins tries to undermine faith in integrity of election. Brownlee hints broadly at outlandish conspiracy theory. A concerted orchestration of deeply cynical politics? Well, they are interesting facts , and I'm just saying …

  5. Pataua4life 5

    NZ First steady of 5.1% says all I need to know about the accuracy of this poll.

    • Tricledrown 5.1

      3%

    • observer 5.2

      It's never about exact numbers in one poll. It's always about the overall picture, across a range of polls.

      The pattern is very consistent. National peaked at 38 (Colmar Brunton, when Todd Muller was leader). No poll, from any polling organisation, in any media, has given them more under Judith Collins. Some worse, some much worse.

      Which polls would you prefer to cite? Even one?

  6. When reporters start asking whether opposition comments are helpful….. mentioning Brownlee.
    below 20% is a possibility.

  7. Brian Tregaskin 7

    Collins/Browlee Press Conference a big pity party .

    MSM and Collins/Browlee are not calling the shots ,don't let them or take the bait

  8. Adrian Thornton 8

    Shouldn't that read…

    Parliamentary composition:

    Centre– 78 seats, Centre Right – 42 seats.

    • Andre 8.1

      Adrian, face it, you're like a nut-allergic, coeliac, legume-intolerant vegan looking for dinner at Carnivore Carl's Cave'o' Dripping Bloody Delights.

      After all the salad greens had been recalled because of e.coli contamination.

    • Descendant Of Smith 8.2

      "Shouldn't that read…

      Parliamentary composition:

      Centre– 78 seats, Centre Right – 42 seats."

      Presses like button.

    • Draco T Bastard 8.3

      Or, perhaps:

      Centre to centre-right – 78 seats, Radical RightWing 42 seats.

  9. Rae 9

    Ardern "We need to act quickly to ensure the virus does not gain ground in the country"

    Collins "Me, me, me".

  10. NZJester 10

    I just hope these numbers hold on till the election. The Right leaning are coming out of the woodwork trying to push people back to National by saying what we are doing in New Zealand does not work and the newest cases prove it. They can only see that it might cause problems to their profits.

    I call those people Toryists a combination of the British word Tory and the Word Terrorist. I do not mind having to go in and out of lock down if it saves lives. Lives are more important than money, something a lot of those chasing money have lost sight of.

  11. lurgee 11

    Let's not get too complacent. If National are polling at 28% and we're all crowing about it, and they come in at 35%, that looks like Plucky-Judith-Staving-Off-Annihilation and she gets to hang about until 2023 for another crack. By which time, she'll be in a much stronger position, with Ardern's epic popularity waning as Covid memories fade and the failures of her government are reckoned.

    • observer 11.1

      I certainly agree with your first sentence. Any Labour-Green majority will do for me.

      The rest of your comment doesn't stack up, partly because losing leaders don't get to keep their job (the last Nat was Bolger in 1987) but mostly because I think you underestimate how much National MPs dislike Collins. She has been rejected every time, and is only there to take the defeat.

      If a win is on the cards in future, there will be many more applicants for the job.

  12. swordfish 12

    .
    A Few Points on the Major Parties in this Latest UMR

    Conducted over 6 days from July 29 – Aug 3. Which means it's certainly the most recent sampling … UMR's fieldwork commenced the same day Colmar Brunton's ceased.
    (15 days after Collins becomes leader / 9 days after Falloon story breaks / 7 days after ILG resigns / 3 days after devastating Newshub Reid Research Poll released & subsequent backlash from Brownlee)

    Nats down 4 points on the previous UMR (late June-early July, when Muller still Leader) … latest Nat rating is the "lowest reading in the UMR series for several years" (Herald).

    Nat UMR Trajectory: dipping 3 points in March, then plunging 6 points through April … and since then gently fluctuating around 30% … (last 4 UMRs): Late April: 29%, Late May: 30% , Late June:32% , Late July-Early Aug: 28%.

    Down from Jan 39%, Feb 38%, March 35%.

    (Darn tootin' !, if they didn't go & change leaders just when they were beginning a mild recovery under Muller ! … up 3 points between April & June … only to take 4 steps back under Judith … when you're down on your luck nothing goes your way)

    Joan & Jackie Collins' baby sister is undoubtedly popular with National's base (& ACT's as well) … but not so much with swing voters it seems.

    Lab UMR Trajectory: two relatively even spikes … up 7 points in March & then another 6 through April … early 40s (Jan/Feb), … 49% (March), … 55% (Late April) … but trending down (albeit by the gentlest, flimsiest, light as a snowflake-iest of margins) over last 3 consecutive UMRs … 55, 54, 53, 52.

    Not surprised that support for a trans-Tasman travel bubble was slipping (46/28 against / compared to 42/32 against in Late June) … but certainly am surprised that a clear plurality (46/32) supported allowing up to 10k International Students to return to NZ subject to 14 days quarantine (up from 39/37 in Late June).

    • nzlemming 12.1

      I think the problem is not having students back. It's being able to quarantine them for two weeks. Given the breakouts we've had, it's farcical to think that the universities could do this.

  13. greywarshark 13

    Cripes if Labour has any intellect and discernment they wouldn't go for quantity they would choose quality and bloody get on with the job of setting the country up for the new millenium of which we are now in the Second Decade – no more dragging heels and wishing things away to the future.

    The Future is now, Tomorrow has come, and we don't like its face.

  14. Scott 14

    Of course either one or both of Greens/NZF could decide not to join. If a 55-5% L/G election result and Labour offered Greens a poultry number of posts of not much significance, would the G's accept, or would they decide it was better for them, and therefore, as they see it, the country, for them to be outside govt and criticise. I might not think that, but they might.

  15. Scott 15

    I would prefer a 51/8% L/G government over a 56/5% L/G-

    Having that many MPs (whatever 56% returns) will need a vicelike grip on govt and caucus – there would be trouble there.

  16. Pauline Conroy 16

    Jacinda Ardern is an incredible hands on Prime Minister well done Jacinda

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Health reform announcement
    On Wednesday morning, Minister of Health Andrew Little and Associate Minister of Health (Māori) Peeni Henare are announcing major health reforms.  You can watch the announcement live here from 8am Wednesday. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 hours ago
  • Alpine Fault research supports Government’s work planning and preparing for earthquakes
    New research into the probability of an Alpine Fault rupture reinforces the importance of taking action to plan and prepare for earthquakes, Acting Minister for Emergency Management Kris Faafoi says. Research published by Dr Jamie Howarth of Te Herenga Waka - Victoria University of Wellington today, shows there is a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • New Zealand to provide further support to UN North Korea sanctions
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Defence Minister Peeni Henare today announced that New Zealand is deploying a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 Orion maritime patrol aircraft in support of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on North Korea. The Resolutions, adopted unanimously by the UNSC between 2006 and 2017, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • Transmission Gully review shows flawed planning process should have been addressed before project st...
    The Transmission Gully Interim Review has found serious flaws at the planning stage of the project, undermining the successful completion of the four-lane motor north of Wellington Infrastructure Minister Grant Robertson and Transport Minister Michael Wood said. Grant Robertson said the review found the public-private partnership (PPP) established under the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Australian Foreign Minister to visit Aotearoa New Zealand
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today that Australian Foreign Minister Hon Marise Payne will visit Aotearoa New Zealand for the first face-to-face Foreign Ministers’ Consulations since the COVID-19 pandemic began. “Australia is New Zealand’s closest and most important international partner. I’m very pleased to be able to welcome Hon Marise ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Border exceptions will see more families reunited
    Hundreds more families who were separated by the border closure will be reunited under new border exceptions announced today, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi said. “The Government closed the border to everyone but New Zealand citizens and residents, in order to keep COVID-19 out, keep our economy open and keep New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • “He Taniwha He Tipua, He Tipua He Taniwha – The Dragon and the Taniwha”
    Hon Nanaia Mahuta, Foreign Minister 8.30am, 19 April 2021 [CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY] Speech to the NZCC Korihi Pō, Korihi Ao E rongo e turia no Matahau Nō Tū te winiwini, Nō Tū te wanawana Tū Hikitia rā, Tū Hapainga mai Ki te Whai Ao, Ki te Ao Mārama Tihei Mauri ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Backing sustainable wool carpets to create a compelling yarn for New Zealand’s strong wool sector
    The Government is supporting a new project with all-wool New Zealand carpet company, Bremworth, which has its sights on developing more sustainable all-wool carpets and rugs, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor announced.  The Ministry for Primary Industries is contributing $1.9 million towards Bremworth’s $4.9 million sustainability project through its Sustainable Food ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand provides support to Timor-Leste for flooding and COVID-19 surge
    New Zealand is providing further support to Timor-Leste following severe flooding and the recent surge in COVID-19 cases, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “Our thoughts are with the people of Timor-Leste who have been impacted by the severe flooding and landslides at a time when the country is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • WHANAU OF MĀORI BATTALION SOLDIERS REUNITED WITH MEDALS
    A ceremony has been held today in Gisborne where the unclaimed medals of 28 (Māori) Battalion C Company soldiers were presented to their families.   After the Second World War, returning service personnel needed to apply for their medals and then they would be posted out to them.  While most medals ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • SolarWinds compromise attributed to Russian state actor
    New Zealand has today added its voice to the international condemnation of the malicious compromise and exploitation of the SolarWinds Orion platform. The Minister Responsible for the Government Communications Security Bureau, Andrew Little, says that New Zealand's international partners have analysed the compromise of the SolarWinds Orion platform and attributed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Queenstown roading project given fast track approval
    An expert consenting panel has approved the Queenstown Arterials Project, which will significantly improve transport links and reduce congestion for locals and visitors in the tourism hotspot.   Environment Minister David Parker welcomed the approval for the project that will construct, operate and maintain a new urban road around Queenstown’s town ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Screen industry secures landmark project
    Economic and Regional Development Minister Stuart Nash says a landmark deal has been agreed with Amazon for The Lord of the Rings TV series, currently being filmed in New Zealand. Mr Nash says the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) secures multi-year economic and tourism benefits to New Zealand, outside the screen ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Report into review of health response to lead contamination released
    The Government welcomes the findings from a rapid review into the health system response to lead contamination in Waikouaiti’s drinking water supply. Sample results from the town’s drinking-water supply showed intermittent spikes in lead levels above the maximum acceptable value. The source of the contamination is still under investigation by ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ Upgrade Programme revs up economic recovery
    Transport Minister Michael Wood today marked the start of construction on the New Zealand Upgrade Programme’s Papakura to Drury South project on Auckland’s Southern Motorway, which will create hundreds of jobs and support Auckland’s economic recovery. The SH1 Papakura to Drury South project will give more transport choices by providing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech releasing the Digital Council's report 'Towards Trustworthy and Trusted Automated D...
    CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY  E ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā karanga maha o te wa, tēnā koutou, tēna koutou, tēna tātou katoa. Ki ngā mana whenua, ko Ngāi Tahu, ko Waitaha, ko Kāti Māmoe  anō nei aku mihi ki a koutou. Nōku te hōnore kia haere mai ki te ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Green light for 10 minute e-bus to Auckland Airport
    Transport Minister Michael Wood today marked the completion of upgrades to State Highway 20B which will give Aucklanders quick electric bus trips to and from the airport. The State Highway 20B Early Improvements project has added new lanes in each direction between Pukaki Creek Bridge and SH20 for buses and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Review into greyhound racing announced
    The Government is putting in place a review of the work being done on animal welfare and safety in the greyhound racing industry, Grant Robertson announced today. “While Greyhound Racing NZ has reported some progress in implementing the recommendations of the Hansen Report, recent incidents show the industry still has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Road safety boosted by increased penalty for mobile use while driving
    The infringement fee for using a mobile phone while driving will increase from $80 to $150 from 30 April 2021 to encourage safer driving, Transport Minister Michael Wood announced today. Michael Wood said too many people are still picking up the phone while driving. “Police issued over 40,000 infringement notices ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Pacific mental wellbeing supported across Auckland and Wellington
    Pacific people in New Zealand will be better supported with new mental health and addiction services rolling out across the Auckland and Wellington regions, says Aupito William Sio.  “One size does not fit all when it comes to supporting the mental wellbeing of our Pacific peoples. We need a by ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Fresh approach proposed to Smokefree 2025
    New measures are being proposed to accelerate progress towards becoming a smokefree nation by 2025, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced. “Smoking or exposure to second-hand smoke kills around 12 people a day in New Zealand. Recent data tells us New Zealand’s smoking rates continue to decrease, but ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Govt expands Mana Ake to provide more school-based mental wellbeing support
    More children will be able to access mental wellbeing support with the Government expansion of Mana Ake services to five new District Health Board areas, Health Minister Andrew Little says. The Health Minister made the announcement while visiting Homai School in Counties Manukau alongside Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Associate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Record Number of People Move Into Work
    The Government’s COVID-19 response has meant a record number of people moved off a Benefit and into employment in the March Quarter, with 32,880 moving into work in the first three months of 2021. “More people moved into work last quarter than any time since the Ministry of Social Development ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Significant global progress made under Christchurch Call
    A stocktake undertaken by France and New Zealand shows significant global progress under the Christchurch Call towards its goal to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online.  The findings of the report released today reinforce the importance of a multi-stakeholder approach, with countries, companies and civil society working together to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New chair of interim TAB NZ Board appointed
    Racing Minister Grant Robertson has announced he is appointing Elizabeth Dawson (Liz) as the Chair of the interim TAB NZ Board. Liz Dawson is an existing Board Director of the interim TAB NZ Board and Chair of the TAB NZ Board Selection Panel and will continue in her role as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government to phase out live exports by sea
    The Government has announced that the export of livestock by sea will cease following a transition period of up to two years, said Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor. “At the heart of our decision is upholding New Zealand’s reputation for high standards of animal welfare. We must stay ahead of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Workshop on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems – opening remarks
    WORKSHOP ON LETHAL AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS SYSTEMS Wednesday 14 April 2021 MINISTER FOR DISARMAMENT AND ARMS CONTROL OPENING REMARKS Good morning, I am so pleased to be able to join you for part of this workshop, which I’m confident will help us along the path to developing New Zealand’s national policy on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Inter-prison kapa haka competition launched
    For the first time, all 18 prisons in New Zealand will be invited to participate in an inter-prison kapa haka competition, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. The 2021 Hōkai Rangi Whakataetae Kapa Haka will see groups prepare and perform kapa haka for experienced judges who visit each prison and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government takes step forward on counter terrorism laws
    The Government has introduced the Counter-Terrorism Legislation Bill, designed to boost New Zealand's ability to respond to a wider range of terrorist activities. The Bill strengthens New Zealand’s counter-terrorism legislation and ensures that the right legislative tools are available to intervene early and prevent harm. “This is the Government’s first ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Carbon neutral government a step closer
    Coal boiler replacements at a further ten schools, saving an estimated 7,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next ten years Fossil fuel boiler replacements at Southern Institute of Technology and Taranaki DHB, saving nearly 14,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next ten years Projects to achieve a total ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Appointment of Chief Parliamentary Counsel
    Attorney-General David Parker today announced the appointment of Cassie Nicholson as Chief Parliamentary Counsel for a term of five years. The Chief Parliamentary Counsel is the principal advisor and Chief Executive of the Parliamentary Counsel Office (PCO).  She is responsible for ensuring PCO, which drafts most of New Zealand’s legislation, provides ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Emissions report shows urgent action needed
    Every part of Government will need to take urgent action to bring down emissions, the Minister for Climate Change, James Shaw said today in response to the recent rise in New Zealand’s greenhouse emissions. The latest annual inventory of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions shows that both gross and net ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ becomes first in world for climate reporting
    Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark says Aotearoa New Zealand has become the first country in the world to introduce a law that requires the financial sector to disclose the impacts of climate change on their business and explain how they will manage climate-related risks and opportunities. The Financial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Awards celebrate the food and fibre sector employer excellence
    Exceptional employment practices in the primary industries have been celebrated at the Good Employer Awards, held this evening at Parliament. “Tonight’s awards provided the opportunity to celebrate and thank those employers in the food and fibres sector who have gone beyond business-as-usual in creating productive, safe, supportive, and healthy work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Tourism Infrastructure Fund now open
    Applications are now invited from all councils for a slice of government funding aimed at improving tourism infrastructure, especially in areas under pressure given the size of their rating bases. Tourism Minister Stuart Nash has already signalled that five South Island regions will be given priority to reflect that jobs ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Electricity Networks Association (ENA) Annual Cocktail Speech 2021
    Tēnā koutou e ngā maata waka Tenā koutou te hau kāinga ngā iwi o Te Whanganui ā TaraTēnā koutou i runga i te kaupapa o te Rā. No reira, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā tatou katoa.  It is a pleasure to be here tonight.  Thank you Graeme (Peters, ENA Chief ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Construction Skills Action Plan delivering early on targets
    The Construction Skills Action Plan has delivered early on its overall target of supporting an additional 4,000 people into construction-related education and employment, says Minister for Building and Construction Poto Williams. Since the Plan was launched in 2018, more than 9,300 people have taken up education or employment opportunities in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Youth Justice residence offers new pathway
    An innovative new Youth Justice residence designed in partnership with Māori will provide prevention, healing, and rehabilitation services for both young people and their whānau, Children’s Minister Kelvin Davis announced today.  Whakatakapokai is located in South Auckland and will provide care and support for up to 15 rangatahi remanded or ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • The Duke of Edinburgh
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today expressed New Zealand’s sorrow at the death of His Royal Highness The Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. “Our thoughts are with Her Majesty The Queen at this profoundly sad time.  On behalf of the New Zealand people and the Government, I would like to express ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Five Country Ministerial Communiqué
    We, the Home Affairs, Interior, Security and Immigration Ministers of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States of America (the ‘Five Countries’) met via video conference on 7/8 April 2021, just over a year after the outbreak of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Guided by our shared ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago