US election 2020: the morning after

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 am, November 5th, 2020 - 155 comments
Categories: democracy under attack, us politics - Tags:

It’s a waiting game as votes continue to be counted and Trump continues to cast doubt on the electoral process.

The Guardian,

Donald Trump falsely claimed victory in the race for the presidency in the early hours of Wednesday morning, even as the election remained too close to call with millions of votes yet to be counted.

Addressing a crowd of supporters packed into a room at the White House despite the pandemic, Trump claimed victory in states that remain too close to call and peddled baseless claims of “fraud”.

The president also threatened to challenge the election results in the supreme court, even as his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, won the state of Arizona – a remarkable upset for Republicans in a state known as the birthplace of Trumpism.

From Stuff, last night,

“We were getting ready to win this election – frankly we did win this election,” he said, citing victories in some states that had yet to be decided. “So we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court, we want all the voting to stop, we don’t want them to find any ballots at 4 o’clock in the morning and add them to the list.”

It’s just after midnight, Biden has 238 electoral college votes and Trump has 215. There are still seven states yet to be declared. Then there are the postal and early votes to count. Stuff’s chief political reporter, Henry Cooke, has some detailed projections on his twitter.

Edited above (weka 8.24am)

lprent: 0651

Catching up on this election with the morning coffee with the New York Times and the path to 270 archaic and arcane electoral college votes required.

It stands at 227 electoral college votes to Biden, 213 to Trump with 7 states still in contention.

  • Wisconsin 10 ev. Nearly all counted and Biden ahead with by ~10k votes ahead. There are apparently only about another 300 or so to be counted. This will go to Biden, but almost certainly result in a court challenge.
  • Michigan 16 ev.  Mostly counted and Biden ahead by ~45k votes. Most of the remaining votes are coming from from around Detroit which had a large increase in votes this election and is voting towards Biden strongly. I’d say that Biden will get this one as well.
  • Pennsylvania 20 ev. Only 80% counted and Trump is ahead by ~400k. Most of the remaining votes are mail in and these have been running at 78% to Biden. Roughly 1.3 million votes to count. Of the remaining votes, more ~910k come from areas won by Clinton in 2016, ~390k from Trump counties. Too far out to guess, but Trump’s current lead will be whittled.
  • North Carolina 15 ev. Nearly finished – almost certainly Trump as he is ~75k ahead with only a minor lean to Biden in the mail in votes.
  • Georgia 16 ev. ~85k to Trump, but most of the mail in votes remaining votes coming from Atlanta area. Those have been leaning to Biden. No idea if this is enough to whittle the lead away.
  • Arizona 11 ev. ~90k to Biden with about 86% counted. Mostly mail in votes to count and those have been leaning strongly to Biden. I’d say that Biden has this one.
  •  Nevada 6 ev. This one is winner takes all (I keep confusing it with Nebraska). Currently there is only ~8k toward Biden. The remaining votes are all mail ins and will be counted Thursday. Can’t tell.
  • Alaska 3 ev. Slow counter. But that will go to Trump.

Right now I think that Biden has about 264 electoral votes he can be confident on. Trump has 231. Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16) and the exact balance in Nevada (6) still to work on.

155 comments on “US election 2020: the morning after ”

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  1. Dennis Frank 1
    5 November 2020 at 6:29 am

    Big surge in Democrat precinct counts overnight puts Biden back in contention. The NYT map now has a path to victory for him: if current trends continue he gets 270, the exact number required for victory.

    Problem is, aggregate trends are vulnerable to being shifted by big local variations, so too close to call until the whole count is complete probably. And subsequent legal challenges could make the outcome moot for the forseeable future..

    Biden is 2% ahead in the nationwide count, which seems to indicate that the 10-14% lead that polls have been showing the past six months was a chimera. Polling methodology may now appear suspect to many pundits! Or maybe undecideds mostly went to Trump – better the devil you know.

    • Adrian 1.1
      5 November 2020 at 7:30 am

      On of the few glimpses of clarity last night was a poll analyst saying the mistake made by pollsters was asking people who they wanted to vote for, they should have asked who their friends etc were voting for, that gave a more accurate view of their cohort and a very accurate indication of the askees órientation. Trumpers were avoiding arguments and lying,. No surprises there.

      • Andre 1.1.1
        5 November 2020 at 7:36 am

        So then the question becomes: is polling permanently broken, or is this a phenomenon specific to the Dotard of Doltistan?

        • Phillip ure 1.1.1.1
          5 November 2020 at 8:01 am

          Nah..!..it's broken here too,..pollsters and pundits have become a big joke…in both places..who can forget that nadir in local punditry in 2016…when a tv pol-talkshow when they had most of the usual suspects pundits on the show…and they all assured us that way could clinton lose…(I still chuckle over that one ..).…and more recently here none of the pollsters/pundits picked labour ruling alone ..so what effing use are they..?…maybe they should all go back to reading runes..?..they could hardly do worse…

          • Phillip ure 1.1.1.1.1
            5 November 2020 at 8:12 am

            I mean..even I do better than them…I picked trump to win in 2016..biden this time..and in the election here I picked Chloe winning ak central….the return of the maori party..death of nz first….(but I didn 't pick labour ruling alone.)..it's a crap-shoot..this punditry thing..why do they take themselves so seriously…?..and why don't we just ignore them..?..their track record is a shocker…

          • gsays 1.1.1.1.2
            5 November 2020 at 12:30 pm

            With the pollsters appalling accuracy maybe they could get a gig as an economic mouthpiece on one of the media outlets.

            Bring back the horoscopes!

        • Visubversa 1.1.1.2
          5 November 2020 at 8:03 am

          It is the country and the electoral system that are broken. They have been for a long time, it has just become more obvious under Trump.

  2. SPC 2
    5 November 2020 at 6:32 am

    Followed overnight as Biden pulled ahead in Wisconisn and then Michigan. Biden seems likely to win both now.

    Holding the lead in Arizona (not yet a Biden win by the way, some called that too early) and Nevada gives Biden the win. Biden won't need either if he takes out Georgia – possible via completing the Fulton County vote.

    Biden has these paths to victory while Trump lawyers up trying to prevent the Pennsylvania mail votes being counted. it was always best to have the win without needing Pennsylvania. Biden would be a slight favourite to win the 20 EC votes once all votes were counted.

    • Tony Veitch (not etc.) 2.1
      5 November 2020 at 7:25 am

      Agreed, SPC. Biden looks to have secured a narrow victory.

      Now the balls firmly in Trump's court. We know he'll litigate, but will he also call out his redneck supporters with their AK47s?

      After all, by his reasoning, if someone's trying to steal something from you, you have a legitimate right to resist being robbed, haven’t you?

      I sure as hell wouldn't like to be living in the States for this next few weeks.

    • lprent 2.2
      5 November 2020 at 7:40 am

      I'm pretty sure that based on what is left once the dust has settled that Biden will have won.

      I'm also sure that there will be a lot of uncertainty because it will get litigated extensively. However I also think that there is a much better paper trail than there was in 2000 – so the result isn't likely to be thrown out by legal battles.

  3. Adrian 3
    5 November 2020 at 7:24 am

    Last night when Biden and trump had about 123 million votes between them but commentators were saying that 164 million had voted, I was going hang on a minute thats 25% of votes missing, where are the 40 million as the percentages shown as counted didn't reflect that many left to go. But then it was obvious that the coverage from CNN and Sky left a lot to be desired, a lot of bullshit and only a few gems of clarity.

  4. SPC 4
    5 November 2020 at 8:00 am

    The Senate is finely poised.

    It seems 49 (the R will win the runoff in Georgia)-47-2 (I who side with tem D) with two states in play.

    Peters vs James in Michigan and Maine – Gideon vs Collins. Stuff it Collins won.

    At best, its now 50-50 if Peters wins. Hopefully the VP gets to cast the 51st vote.

    SCOTUS still has reason to bide their time for the
    Michigan Senate vote (as to Bidens ability to Garland of roses his victory).

    • lprent 4.1
      5 November 2020 at 8:11 am

      Senate will be finely balanced again. Most likely with one or two to the Republicans.

      Incumbency is hard to overwhelm.

      • SPC 4.1.1
        5 November 2020 at 8:31 am

        In 2022, the seats of 2016 are back in play. But if Peters loses in Michigan the GOP retain their 51-49 lead till then. The one good thing about that is it will expose Collins – and she will be gone in 2026.

        • lprent 4.1.1.1
          8 November 2020 at 7:06 am

          That rerun in Georgia will be very interesting. There was a massive increase in the vote from the cities there. If that happens again in the rerun and extends a bit – then it'd wind up with a 50-50 split and VP Harris becoming the pivot.

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 4.2
      5 November 2020 at 9:06 am

      Senate looks most likely Republican, and this result is arguably as important as the presidency. Likely outcome seems Biden for president, but completely unable to actually pass any legislation through the Senate.

      So Republicans will block stimulus, healthcare etc, and Biden will get the blame!

      • SPC 4.2.1
        5 November 2020 at 2:25 pm

        Yeah you got that right. I made the rookie mistake of presuming from the NYT Democrat Senate total (47) that they would have 48 plus Sanders and the other Independent. But they had the two in their Dem total. So its R 52 D 48, even if Peters wins Michigan.

        Maybe Biden can still take the US back into the Paris Accord …

  5. Treetop 5
    5 November 2020 at 8:03 am

    There is nothing gracious about Trump. He is making such a fool of himself and he is showing how pathetic he is when it comes to declaring himself the winner before the final vote count.

    Biden needs to stay on course and get to 270 college votes for the US to be saved from 4 more years of political instability. The remaining margins are paper thin in 2 states.

  6. Dennis Frank 6
    5 November 2020 at 8:34 am

    Biden has now won Wisconsin, bumping him up ten to 237.

    I see the Herald reckons him at 248 – maybe the folks at NYT haven’t fully updated?? Yeah, I just checked google & they also have 248.

    • Treetop 6.1
      5 November 2020 at 8:39 am

      33 electoral college votes to go for Biden. 33 is a power number in numerology.

    • SPC 6.2
      5 November 2020 at 8:43 am

      It's too early to call Arizona – it should be 237.

      • Dennis Frank 6.2.1
        5 November 2020 at 8:51 am

        Oh is that it? There was a snafu reported in the Arizona count last night, resulting in a mistaken declaration of outcome.

        I don't know the basis of those declarations anyway. If you check declared states on the NYT map by hovering your cursor, the details window that appears on each shows an incomplete vote count. Somehow they are authorised to declare a result despite that – would be good to know the basis for doing so.

        • Phillip ure 6.2.1.1
          5 November 2020 at 9:14 am

          Those calls are being made because the votes left to be counted are from mainly urban areas…which favour biden..

      • Treetop 6.2.2
        5 November 2020 at 8:54 am

        Aljazeera has Biden at 248.

        • greywarshark 6.2.2.1
          5 November 2020 at 10:01 am

          Link: Biden wins more votes than any candidate in US history: Live …

          http://www.aljazeera.com › news › 2020/11 › us-anxiously-a…

          4 hours ago — With votes still being counted, Biden has broken Barack Obama's record, … Voting has closed in the United States and all eyes are on the count in … Hello and w…

          and – https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/03/latest_news/1604394877_801753.html
          Spanish news service I think – Prisa Group under Diario AS, S.L. – Madrid

          Election 2020: latest headlines

          Electoral college: Biden: 248; Trump 214 (13:25 ET)

          • Final counts expected in Michigan, Georgia by end of Wednesday with Pennsylvania, North Carolina to take longer

          -Trump team files lawsuit in Pennsylvania and Michigan to halt routine ballot count

          -Trump campaign to request immediate recount in Wisconsin; Biden wins by less than 1%

          – Twitter slaps warnings on Trump tweets falsely claiming foul play over continued ballot counting "they are finding Biden votes all over the place"

          • Biden widens slim lead in Midwest as team claim he's "on track to win this election."
          • Republicans look likely to retain the Senate, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wins re-election in Kentucky, while minority Democrat congresswomen "The Squad" all win fresh terms
          • greywarshark 6.2.2.1.1
            5 November 2020 at 11:13 am

            Latest is that the APS has said that Wisconsin is key battleground for Biden. e&oe

            Seems to me that one change to the electoral method in USA would be to give electoral votes on the basis of registered population, people only having one vote in one state, where they live the majority of the time. That would be a straightforward move that could be done on an easily argued premise. Others would involve changing
            people’s attitudes and questioning long-held certainties that have become the embedded or folded lies that WH Auden has written about in poem 1 September 1939. We are virtually at war.

            • greywarshark 6.2.2.1.1.1
              5 November 2020 at 11:54 am

              Biden at 264 Trump 214 on my aljazeera link above.!!!! I think I've remembered right (the guideline given for winning is 270).

  7. Kay 7
    5 November 2020 at 8:49 am

    A Dem Presidency/Congress is still going to be severely hampered if they can't get the Senate. Even (even forbid) a Trump win could be mitigated a bit by this.

    • SPC 7.1
      5 November 2020 at 9:04 am

      If Peters wins Michigan – still a chance. Then it is 50-50 in the Senate and the VP can use a casting vote.

      The Democrats have to place pressure on/work with Sen Collins from Maine.

  8. Phillip ure 8
    5 November 2020 at 9:01 am

    Well this seriously messes up trumps' master-plan..which was to resign in second term .hand it over to pence…and the deal being that pence then gives him a presidential pardon for all his crimes…now..?

  9. Ffloyd 9
    5 November 2020 at 9:05 am

    What is Trumps Electoral tally?

  10. Treetop 10
    5 November 2020 at 9:12 am

    Trump is about to spew vile like never heard from him. He is warming up with using the words fraud and integrity. His blood pressure would be high. AJ TV has good coverage.

    Wisconsin goes to Biden. Michigan is paper thin with Biden leading.

    I think the Black Lives movement has played a big part in the election result.

  11. Dennis Frank 11
    5 November 2020 at 9:14 am

    Four states legalized recreational marijuana Tuesday night: Arizona, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota. .. And Mississippi signed off on a measure allowing medical marijuana use.

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/progressives-marijuana-minimum-wage-universal-pre-k_n_5fa2cbd8c5b62fc3f811e4b3

    • greywarshark 11.1
      5 November 2020 at 10:13 am

      How many states have acted against women's sexual health and rights? I haven't kept count. Is there a good state with progressive rationality, respect for women and their fertility rights, and good living conditions and respect for all citizens in the state anywhere in the USA?

  12. Patricia Bremner 12
    5 November 2020 at 9:34 am

    Listened to the Australian commentary.. Wow, so Trumpish and calling Biden and c/o "elitists."

    He was giving the pollsters hell, so won't like the mail in count!!

    As Cinny said, too close to say, but hope Biden gets up.

    • Treetop 12.1
      5 November 2020 at 10:17 am

      Biden just on AJ TV said postal votest were 78% in favour of Democrats. Biden is leading the popular vote as well as the electoral college vote.

      Biden is so calm and contained compared to Trump who is drunk on power and control.

      Looks like Biden is the only person Trump will lose to which Trump cannot fix.

      • Treetop 12.1.1
        5 November 2020 at 11:06 am

        Edit the postal votes are 78% in favour in Pennsylvania for the Dems. So an expected win there.

  13. Amakiwi 13
    5 November 2020 at 9:39 am

    An empire is crumbling.

    Its electoral system is a shambles. More American exceptionalism.

    • Adrian 13.1
      5 November 2020 at 10:48 am

      On the contrary, it has worked, the candidate with the majority of votes will/has won. Better than 2016.

    • Gabby 13.2
      5 November 2020 at 12:24 pm

      The individual states like it that way.

    • alwyn 13.3
      5 November 2020 at 1:41 pm

      "Its electoral system is a shambles".

      I'm not really sure that people in New Zealand can make such statements. After all we are a country which has, twice in the last 25, years managed to do the following.

      Hold a National Election. Count all the votes for each party. Then hand over the decision on who the Government is going to be to Winston Peters. After about 2 months, in 1996, of about 3 weeks, in 2017, he will return from Mt Sinai with his decision.

      I had great trouble persuading Australian friends that this made any sense. They simply regarded our electoral system as being a shambles.

      I think that when it comes to evaluating another countries system we should keep quiet.

  14. The Al1en 14
    5 November 2020 at 10:28 am

    Blue Michigan.
    NBC calls Michigan for Biden.

    253 – 214

    • Andre 14.2
      5 November 2020 at 10:49 am

      Nevada remains a nail-biter, with Biden ahead by just 8k votes. They won't announce more results until tomorrow. But most of the votes still to be counted are in Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno). The remaining votes are expected to be favourable to Biden, but even if they all exactly match the vote split in their counties so far, Biden should increase his margin by around 2k to 3k votes.

      Arizona is looking more comfortable for Biden. He's ahead by 93k votes, the remaining votes are expected to favour him, and the big numbers still to be counted are in counties that are most favourable to him.

      Arizona and Nevada get Biden to the narrowest possible win with 270 Electoral College votes.

      I'm doubtful Biden will pull off a come-from-behind in Pennsylvania. He's about 320k behind at the moment. Looking at numbers of votes still to be counted in Philadelphia and suburbs, Pittsburgh etc, I just can't see him making up more than around 250k of that deficit.

      I just don't see enough votes still to be counted in Georgia or North Carolina for Biden to squeak out a win in either of those states.

      So to me it's looking fairly likely for a 270 EC vote win to Biden.

      • WeTheBleeple 14.2.1
        5 November 2020 at 10:53 am

        Pennsylvania to Dems by ~ 80K. yes

        This is my guess following some Dems there, not anything reported.

        • Andre 14.2.1.1
          5 November 2020 at 10:56 am

          Jaeeezzuss. Mind sharing a bit of whatever happy-juice you're on?

          edit: there’s about a million votes still to be counted in PA. Just to get to even, Biden has to win 2/3 of them. To get to an 80k winning margin, he has to win them by better than 700k to 300k. That would be … something.

          • WeTheBleeple 14.2.1.1.1
            5 November 2020 at 11:12 am

            We'll see, I don't mind being wrong.

            • Andre 14.2.1.1.1.1
              5 November 2020 at 11:19 am

              I cannot adequately express how much I desperately desperately hope you're right.

              • greywarshark …
                5 November 2020 at 11:35 am

                Perhaps he's a sensitive with an electoral divining device. That would be divine.

              • WeTheBleeple …
                5 November 2020 at 1:46 pm

                What I've been told is they're all early &/or mail-in votes (favoring democrats) & are predominantly from Democrat strong areas. It is this combo that provides hope in circles needing hope.

                • Andre …
                  5 November 2020 at 2:06 pm

                  I'm starting to allow myself a bit of hope, and my sphincter isn't cramping quite so badly.

                  Biden's deficit is down to about 203k, and it seems there's around 850k votes still to be counted. So the winning margin he needs in the remaining votes has dropped a lot.

                  • Macro …
                    5 November 2020 at 2:16 pm

                    Yeah am on tender hooks here too.

                    The Georgia race is tightening too – so the Orange marmalade wants to stop counting there too. Around 200,000 ballots to count there according to Vox live this morning.

                    current standing:

                    Donald J. Trump (R) * 2,420,229 49.84%
                    Joe Biden (D) 2,375,962 48.93%

                  • WeTheBleeple …
                    6 November 2020 at 7:57 am

                    Trump's lead in Pennsylvania is down to 114 011. There is 8% of the vote remaining. That's ~ 500 000.

                    He lost 89 K lead from 350 K votes. If the rest are the same another 127 000 drop will put Trump at:

                    Minus 13 000.

                    And Biden takes PA.

                    500 K figure for remaining votes not official.

          • Editractor 14.2.1.1.2
            5 November 2020 at 11:49 am

            According to the NY Times, Biden is currently winning absentee votes in PA by 78%.

            The also say “According to turnout estimates, around 700,000 votes remain in counties won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump 2016 counties have around 290,000 votes left to report.”

            Is that enough hope?

            https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html

          • Phillip ure 14.2.1.1.3
            5 November 2020 at 11:53 am

            Biden did say they are getting about 78 percent of those early votes…so it is possible he could claw back pennsylvania..

            • Andre 14.2.1.1.3.1
              5 November 2020 at 12:00 pm

              I'd kinda prefer a more credible source than a politician commenting on his own election.

              • greywarshark …
                5 November 2020 at 12:10 pm

                Andre did you see that Biden is up to 264 and Trump still 214? On my aljazeera link about 6.

              • Phillip ure …
                5 November 2020 at 2:27 pm

                He has been backed up in that assertion…and really…I don't see biden apeing trump..and outright lying..do you..?

      • AB 14.2.2
        5 November 2020 at 12:16 pm

        Yeah – that's what I'm seeing and fearing: 270-268. Including several narrow Biden wins. And to win, Trump would have to overturn only one of them (any one will do) via recount or legal jiggery pokery.

  15. weka 15
    5 November 2020 at 10:37 am

    Have to admit I was impressed by Biden's speech just before. Calm, pointing to the relevant facts, reassuring, being clear what the process is, noting the important gains for the Dems.

  17. tc 17
    5 November 2020 at 11:12 am

    The pavolovian behaviour of trump supporters reacting to the 'call' storming count facilities etc sums it up for me.

    A nation divided by it’s narcissistic leader.

    • greywarshark 17.1
      5 November 2020 at 11:32 am

      Looking at the aljazeera electoral map, the nation is divided by a broad red streak down the middle with blue on each side forming two blocs abutting onto the sea.

  18. Andre 18
    5 November 2020 at 11:18 am

    It's looking like Arizona is going to the only major deviation from the 2016 result. I wonder how much of that will be directly attributable to the despicable behaviour the Largemouth Ass indulged in towards Arizona's favourite son John McCain?

    • arkie 18.1
      5 November 2020 at 11:47 am

      Biden is underperforming compared to 2016, especially in down-ballot races. Trump's support among Black voters doubled, and he made gains among Hispanic voters too! It shouldn't have been this close

    • left_forward 18.2
      5 November 2020 at 12:16 pm

      Michigan and Wisconsin appear to be confirmed for Biden now.

  19. Kay 19
    5 November 2020 at 11:18 am

    I've just been talking to a good friend, a Canadian ex-pat who's lived in Denmark for decades. She went out for a walk with an American friend earlier and they were afraid to speak in English because of their accents. She really believed they would at the very least cop verbal abuse, if not physical. I'd really like to think Americans here don't have that sort of worry.

    • greywarshark 19.1
      5 November 2020 at 11:48 am

      edit
      They have chosen to travel enjoying their status as Americans to get them around most of the world freely. They have the money to do so, and so are privileged. They come from a country that holds itself up to be the epitome of righteousness and while it is self-destructing and morphing into a different political entity, it is going down as a democracy and creating world schisms. Other nations are rightly outraged that they get dragged down with this behemoth. No wonder people in their own countries are agitated, Americans can expect to feel some heat as they ponce around in their complacency and advantage.

      • Kay 19.1.1
        5 November 2020 at 1:25 pm

        So the Canadians have to suffer too? Just like most countries can't distinguish us from the Aussies, can you 100% tell where in North America that person originates from?

        I've met a fair few America migrant here who consider themselves 'political refugees' from the GWB era. I suppose by your definition one could call them 'privilaged' because they were able to get out of their home country that had become politically intolerable for them. But according to you, it's fine for expat Americans- the vast majority who statistically don't like what's happening there- to "feel some heat as they ponce around in their complacency and advantage?"

        Good grief.

        • greywarshark 19.1.1.1
          6 November 2020 at 3:09 pm

          Good that you can feel grief for people who are not Americans. It was Americans that you largely were talking about and I followed on that, not Canadians.

          Like many NZs you can feel emotion on the push of a story, but long-term it settles down to people who you know or who are drawn to your attention. There are millions of people in the world and thousands in NZ who get very little on-going caring about them in their grief and struggles after they were forced to leave their country to enable them to have a life and not a death. So let's think kindly about them too please. Turn it to a good grief.

  20. greywarshark 20
    5 November 2020 at 12:55 pm

    edit
    aljazeera says that Trump campaign is suing to stop vote count in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

    • Treetop 20.1
      5 November 2020 at 1:17 pm

      I do not like it how there is no consensus on the counting of postal votes. Some appear to be invalid to count. This could have been prevented in particular due to high postal voting because of Covid.

      Only 6 electoral college votes to go and a Biden victory.

  21. Adrian 21
    5 November 2020 at 1:34 pm

    Biden looks like just getting Georgia if the trend carries on as it is.

  22. Phillip ure 22
    5 November 2020 at 1:49 pm

    Interesting interview on rnz with mark rubin…on why trump has the level of support he has…and he joined some dots I hadn,t thought of…in that much of the trade legislation enacted by trump was what sanders was calling for…he also noted how the election of biden marks a return to the same old same old globalisation agenda of obama/bush/clinton etc. …hard to argue with that ..and of course it is those policies that decimated the middle class..and drove/fed that support for trump..

    • Andre 22.1
      5 November 2020 at 2:18 pm

      Drumpfkins are deciding their vote on trade policy? That's the best one I've heard in a while.

      It's straight up middle-finger voting. Or if you want to be polite about it, call it culture-war voting.

      https://www.salon.com/2020/11/04/after-2020-we-face-an-existential-struggle-what-does-it-mean-to-be-an-american/

      • Treetop 22.1.1
        5 November 2020 at 2:30 pm

        Under Trump there has been a pandemic, racial disharmony, an economic downturn due to Covid and next a civil fallout.

        No leadership, just an ignore it all attitude and it will go away.

      • Phillip ure 22.1.2
        5 November 2020 at 2:33 pm

        I don't recall saying trump supporters voted on trade policies..I just noted how many of his policies were what bernie also wanted..and how globalisation created that alienated class…what rubin calls 'the expendables'…why don't you listen to the interview..instead of putting words into my mouth..

        • joe90 22.1.2.1
          5 November 2020 at 3:21 pm

          Yet despite their supposed support for much of the trade legislation enacted by trump was what sanders was calling for, economically nothing really changed for tRump supporters.

          https://twitter.com/BrodyLogan/status/1324099928667291648

          But no matter how this election concludes, America is now a different country. Nearly half of the voters have seen Trump in all of his splendor—his infantile tirades, his disastrous and lethal policies, his contempt for democracy in all its forms—and they decided that they wanted more of it. His voters can no longer hide behind excuses about the corruption of Hillary Clinton or their willingness to take a chance on an unproven political novice. They cannot feign ignorance about how Trump would rule. They know, and they have embraced him.

          Sadly, the voters who said in 2016 that they chose Trump because they thought he was “just like them” turned out to be right. Now, by picking him again, those voters are showing that they are just like him: angry, spoiled, racially resentful, aggrieved, and willing to die rather than ever admit that they were wrong.

          […]

          It’s clear now that far too many of Trump’s voters don’t care about policy, decency, or saving our democracy. They care about power. Although Trump appears to have received a small uptick in votes from Black men and Latinos, the overwhelming share of his supporters are white. The politics of cultural resentment, the obsessions of white anxiety, are so intense that his voters are determined not only to preserve minority rule but to leave a dangerous sociopath in the Oval Office. Even the candidacy of a man who was both a political centrist and a decent human being could not overcome this sullen commitment to authoritarianism.

          https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/large-portion-electorate-chose-sociopath/616994/

          ( alt link https://archive.li/VrdGN )

  23. Michael 23
    5 November 2020 at 2:36 pm

    Biden will get more than 300 Electoral College votes. Trump won't get the Supreme Court to stop the vote count. Big question is whether he accepts Biden win and hands over power.

  24. weka 24
    5 November 2020 at 2:41 pm

    Anyone got a state of play update? How many states are left to declare? If that pushes the EC vote above 270, does that mean the court processes automatically fail and we are left with whatver fuckery DT gets up to in the next 10 weeks?

    • Andre 24.1
      5 November 2020 at 2:55 pm

      I'm frantically refreshing and doom-scrolling https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president?iid=politics_election_national_map plus cycling around to Georgia and Pennsylvania individual results.

      Biden is has been called the winner by news orgs in states adding up to 253 EC votes, including Michigan and Wisconsin.

      Biden is ahead in Arizona and Nevada, which would get him to 270. Nevada isn't going to release more results until tomorrow. Arizona is expected to release more results around 3ish our time. Arizona has a long history of Repug mail voting, so don't expect Biden's lead to improve. But he has a fairly good margin, so it would be really unlikely for the mail votes to take it away from Biden. So far no serious legal fuckery in Arizona or Nevada.

      Biden is behind in Pennsylvania, but catching up fast as more votes are counted. PA authorities say don't expect all votes to be counted for several days yet, and the window for votes to be accepted doesn't close until Friday (their time). If the current trend holds, Biden has a good chance of winning.

      Biden is behind in Georgia, but catching up fast. I'm not quite as hopeful Biden will squeak through to a win.

      Repug lawsuits to stop counting are flying in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. On spurious grounds, of course.

      • Macro 24.1.1
        5 November 2020 at 3:25 pm

        Two very interesting comments posted on 538 re Georgia

        According to the Georgia secretary of state, there are now 122,535 absentee ballots left to be counted in Georgia, while Trump has just a 38,126-vote lead over Biden. At the rate Biden has been picking up votes, it’s very possible he’ll close that gap. However, we may have to wait a while for a projection. While Fulton County is expected to report all its absentees tonight, at least two counties will be taking more time: Chatham County (home of Savannah) will definitely not finish tonight, while Gwinnett County will begin “adjudicating” (essentially double-checking) ballots it has already reported tomorrow (some changes are expected). The county says this process will take until Saturday, but the secretary of state insists that all counting will be done by Friday.

        And.

        Control Of The Senate May Come Down To Georgia

        The Senate map is becoming more clear — and Georgia is probably the state to watch in terms of determining which party controls the chamber. Democratic Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan has officially won reelection in a surprisingly tough race against Republican John James, according to ABC News projections.

        That leaves four Senate races unresolved. In Georgia, incumbent Republican Sen. David Perdue leads Democrat Jon Ossoff (50-47). But it’s far from clear if Perdue will win the 50 percent of the vote required to avoid a runoff on Jan. 5. In North Carolina, incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has a 49-47 lead over Democratic Cal Cunningham and seems poised to win that race. But ABC News has not yet projected Tillis as the winner. Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan also seems likely to win his reelection race. Finally, Democrat Mark Kelly has likely defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally. ABC News has not yet projected Kelly as the winner, but both Fox and the AP say that Kelly won.

        So overall, Democrats appear to have flipped two seats, defeating McSally and Colorado Republican Cory Gardner. Republicans flipped one, defeating Alabama Democrat Doug Jones.

        If you assume Sullivan and Tillis win their races and Kelly wins his, that would give Republicans control of 50 seats and Democrats 48. That means Georgia really matters. If Perdue wins either in the next few days or on Jan. 5, his victory would ensure the GOP a majority in the Senate. So would a win by Georgia’s other senator, Republican Kelly Loeffler, who will face Democrat Ralph Warnock in a runoff. Democrats would win control of the Senate if both Ossoff and Warnock won and Harris is elected vice president and therefore the tiebreaker vote in the Senate.

        https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

      • weka 24.1.2
        5 November 2020 at 6:21 pm

        Brilliant, thank-you!!

  25. WeTheBleeple 25
    5 November 2020 at 2:46 pm

    One of the people reporting from their state (?) on CNN said pro-Trump protesters have turned up outside the place they're counting votes. It was organised via social media. Security is beefing up.

    It was some voting official, not a reporter.

  26. ianmac 26
    5 November 2020 at 3:22 pm

    Just catching up but a legal expert pointed out that you cannot just go to the Supreme Court. Must go to a lower Court first which then decides on the merit and then the Supreme might choose to hear the case or not.

    I think Trump must know this so his motive is to ramp up his supporters to riot level rather than "win" a case. (Remember the National Party angst that they were robbed of their born to rule in 2017, and 2018, and 2019?)

    • McFlock 26.1
      5 November 2020 at 3:58 pm

      why do you think they rushed the latest SCOTUS pick? And the dozens or hundreds of federal judgeships they kept vacant over Obama and got dolt45 to fill.

      • ianmac 26.1.1
        5 November 2020 at 4:34 pm

        An American cannot just call on the Supreme Court to make a judgement on this Election. here is no pathway. Probably the same in NZ?

        But if you are one of the masses who feel cheated, then you will applaud such a Presidential declaration. And scream cheated! They will also believe that "they" have stopped us from going to the Supreme Court. "They" are part of the cheats who stole our win from us. Thus Trump is not foolish.

        • McFlock 26.1.1.1
          5 November 2020 at 4:59 pm

          That would be why the Mcconnell senate confirmed 218 orange nominees as lower court judges, not just the supreme court 3. Obama got 55 in 8 years, the difference mostly down to McConnell stalling the senate to stop Obama achieving anything.

          If someone loses a case, they appeal higher and higher until they get what they want, right? If the top few tiers owe their jobs to the shitgibbon, how do you think (or at least how does the shitgibbon expect) the case to end?

          • greywarshark 26.1.1.1.1
            5 November 2020 at 6:30 pm

            218 in short time cf 55 in 8 yrs for Obama. He took on a mighty task and who was it spread the story that he was born in Africa?

    • weka 26.3
      5 November 2020 at 6:23 pm

      I agree. I suspect the court cases aren't viable but are there to rouse supporters to disruption.

  27. Peter 27
    5 November 2020 at 3:41 pm

    American man on radio in hope this afternoon reflecting with the quote of the day:

    "We used to pick cotton, now we pick Presidents."

  28. greywarshark 28
    5 November 2020 at 4:36 pm

    .
    Biden thinking ahead.
    https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/03/latest_news/1604394877_801753.html.
    Biden launches transition website
    Joe Biden in a move to show he believes he's on course for victory has launched a transition website, buildbackbetter There's nothing in it beyond this text yet, but he's clearly already thinking about the next moves.

    If you want an incredible, and very scary, view of the way Donald Trump approached the transition from the Obama administration I'd thoroughly recommend reading The Fifth Risk, by Moneyball and the Big Short author Michael Lewis.
    and

    A fun fact: A California politician is panicking – he announces it is illegal to count late votes.
    California Republican Senator Kevin McCarthy holds press conference
    On the Republican gains in the Senate this election. Kevin McCarthy reiterates that the GOP want "every legal vote to be counted" but that "people shouldn't be allowed to vote today".

    It seems not only Trump is confused about the distinction between voting, and counting votes.
    and

    Panicking could cost Trump's campaign $3 million.
    The end is nigh for Wisconsin; Trump recount imminent
    There are only about 300 votes left to count in Wisconsin, officials say. They’re in the town of Willow in Richland County.

    Biden leads by more than 20,000 votes.
    Meanwhile, Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said in a statement that Trump “is well within the threshold to request a recount” in Wisconsin, and that the campaign planned to “immediately do so.”
    This would incur a $3 million fee to Trump's campaign, as the margin is more than one quarter of a percent.

    • gsays 28.1
      5 November 2020 at 5:33 pm

      Thanks for the Michael Lewis link, Grey.

      A few laugh out loud sentences in that.

    • ianmac 28.2
      5 November 2020 at 6:39 pm

      Grey:It seems not only Trump is confused about the distinction between voting, and counting votes.

      Exactly. That was what I was thinking when Trump was declaring his "win" last night. In NZ votes have to be in hand on Election Day but it takes up to 2 weeks for Specials to be counted and checked. Trump would forbid those specials to be counted.

      • greywarshark 28.2.1
        5 November 2020 at 8:56 pm

        There was an interesting snippet I found while trawling through the very informative Spanish site that I found. Bound to be better than Fox News for sure. It's about the postal votes in the USA. Apparently if they were not delivered then they can't be accepted as valid to be counted.

        I seem to remember about NZ law, if you had posted something and it had been postmarked with the date, that was proof that you had sent it on that date and if before a closing date, was valid even if not delivered till after.

        Don't know about now in NZ, often not stamped or there is no date. But in USA I wonder about the situation because:

        Federal judge Sullivan makes clear non-compliance unacceptable
        In hearing with USPS over non-delivery of mail-in ballots on Election Day.
        It is yet unclear whether the number of ballots left behind would affect the election result or in fact be negligible.

        https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/03/latest_news/1604394877_801753.html

  29. Rosemary McDonald 29
    5 November 2020 at 5:16 pm

    You'd think that a global superpower would be able to come up with more counters. Like folks who can count. Get the job done a little quicker.

    • weka 29.1
      5 November 2020 at 6:24 pm

      That hardly supports the quest for illegitimate power though. Like the pollin booth removal, not enough counters plays right into their hands.

  30. Gyrogearloose 30
    5 November 2020 at 5:24 pm

    Now for a curve ball….

    Read an article looking at the possibility that electoral college voters flip from Biden to Trump in reaction to their disgust at the evolving Hunter Biden hard drive saga and the huge censorship efforts by the MSM etc to protect the Biden.

    Also raised the possibility that states could object as their votes are about to be announced, halting the count until an investigation in to the allegations of corruptly taking money from foreign powers ( Chinese companies 'Loans' to Hunter Biden et al )

    Writer suggested the timing of the first release of the Biden hard drive info at first blush was too late in the game, but that it was a deliberate trap that could end up with Biden winning the election but Trump remaining president

    Popcorn supplies running low…..

  31. Phillip ure 31
    5 November 2020 at 6:18 pm

    It must be getting pretty grim being around trump about now…as he rages against the coming dark night…giant orange primate…frothing at the mouth..and snarling at all within reach..and having to realise.. that he is the big loser..being a one term president is about as biggest loser you can get/be in america…plus his upcoming snowstorm of indictments…and facing jail time…and now no chance of a pence-pardon..he’s had better days…

  33. AUSTRINGER 33
    5 November 2020 at 6:48 pm

    Lose the White House, most repub!s thank —- he has gone. Missery, no!.We have control of the budget, we have control of the Senate.

    • Phillip ure 34.1
      5 November 2020 at 9:32 pm

      Don't tell Jamie lee ross that news…he may start to think it isn't all over for him..and his motley crew of political fringe dwellers..

  35. greywarshark 35
    5 November 2020 at 9:12 pm

    A list of states that were still in contention and their electoral college numbers.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54783016 morning 5 Nov.

    US Election 2020: Results and exit poll in maps and charts

    • Pennsylvania – 20
    • Georgia – 16
    • North Carolina – 15
    • Arizona – 11
    • Wisconsin – 10
    • Nevada – 6
    • Alaska – 3
  36. RedLogix 36
    6 November 2020 at 7:42 am

    However this plays out, these numbers are neither a repudiation of Trump nor a landslide endorsement of Biden. No-one can be happy with this outcome, and it resolves nothing. The political and social divisions are only going to intensify.

    Between this and the covid winter, the next 100 days are going to be a narrow pass.

    • Muttonbird 36.1
      6 November 2020 at 7:44 am

      Of course it is a repudiation of Trump. He will have been a one term President.

      • RedLogix 36.1.1
        6 November 2020 at 7:56 am

        Before the counting began I said that my working assumption is that Biden would win, but that it would be too close for comfort. I think that still stands.

        • Muttonbird 36.1.1.1
          6 November 2020 at 8:01 am

          Good for you.

          A Biden win, however slim the margin, is confirmation voters have seen Donald Trump, and rejected him.

          • RedLogix 36.1.1.1.1
            6 November 2020 at 8:06 am

            Technically yes, but it needed a substantial Biden win to take the heat out of the intense partisan polarisation we are witnessing. That hasn't happened.

    • Andre 36.2
      6 November 2020 at 7:54 am

      Between the high turnout and Biden 's highish actual vote share, Biden will likely end up with a higher % of eligible voters than any other recent prez, going back to before Raygun.

      • RedLogix 36.2.1
        6 November 2020 at 7:58 am

        And if Trump loses he will have gained more popular votes than Obama … the point being this is an argument that cuts both ways.

        • WeTheBleeple 36.2.1.1
          6 November 2020 at 8:35 am

          Yes it's definitely problematic for Biden's people. Having won an election after the horror show presidency of Trump, to still be given the middle finger by such a large percentage of their own countrymen.

          After everything they've seen, to vote for that man. A vote for Trump was a middle finger to science, decency and humanity.

          • Phillip ure 36.2.1.1.1
            6 November 2020 at 9:54 am

            It was also a scream of rage from the dispossessed/economicaly-ignored..

            • greywarshark 36.2.1.1.1.1
              6 November 2020 at 10:26 am

              edit
              There will always be screams of rage from people who have no vision for a good humanity, who react to comments about their own favoured group without being prepared to look at their own thinking and doing, and consider others POV and try and understand and reach possibly mutual dislike, but agree on enough points to live together amicably. That's what is needed in the USA now and actually in all the world. Raw emotive, egotistic, partisan and alienating behaviour disintegrates the good and common purpose that a community with shared values can build.

              Screams of rage come from the dispossessed/economically ignored when they feel strong and powerful enough to protest. Those most disadvantaged can be very quiet and subdued. They often need an advocate to speak for them; they are squashed by the unkindness of the world as expressed by the authorities. Those who are loudest and angriest tend to be those who want more for themselves and their group, but may never be happy with their materialistic gains.

              And that is the difficulty, knowing in the mind and soul when to be satisfied and be willing to consider and share with others, and allow some others to have more without being in knots with envy and feeling discombobulated. Now that is a disease of the mind that is rife in developed countries. What can we do to contain it in ourselves and the wider community? We could give it a cute, folksy but catchy term – going Pollyanna, ie looking for the things we have to be happy about!

            • WeTheBleeple 36.2.1.1.1.2
              6 November 2020 at 11:00 am

              Yes. The to and fro of the binary has left many dispossessed across a broad range of society. One common denominator would be economic. The disproportionate rage shown by Trump followers may at least partially be correlated with disproportionate promises and subsequent levels of disappointment for white vs coloured America.

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