Waiting for the other shoe to drop

Written By: - Date published: 11:27 am, January 4th, 2012 - 35 comments
Categories: Economy, Social issues - Tags:

I read Colin James’s piece on the need for a resilient economy/society in yesterday’s ODT. A competent explanation of a risks facing New Zealand and an acknowledgement that New Zealand needs to design itself to withstand and exploit them. Nothing new to readers of The Standard. But are we building that resilience? James offers no opinion. The answer is ‘no’.

James defines resilience thusly:

“a strong, secure core, which can withstand shocks, plus enveloping material that is flexible, elastic, compressible and adaptable, to absorb, adjust and adapt to the shocks.

In this country we have strong foundations for resilience.

First, the natural advantages: abundant water, abundant high-quality food growing and catching capacity and abundant energy in a world short of water, food and energy; less direct harm ahead from climate change than almost every other country; distance from mayhem; space to breathe and think; clear skies; and a fresh/safe/natural country brand most others would die for.

Add the institutional and social advantages: stable democratic and legal institutions; a good education system by world standards; an inventive and adaptive people; a generally liberal people who have over 25 years invented biculturalism and begun to live with multiculturalism.”

OK, as far as it goes, but are we taking advantage of these foundations for a resilient economy?

Does selling nearly half of our electricity sector and the owner of our major coal reserves improve our resilience or weaken it? Obviously, it weakens it because the decisions future governments may wish to take to insure security of affordable energy supply to New Zealand’s economy will be constrained by the rights of the (foreign) minority shareholders whose interests won’t necessarily align with the interests of New Zealand. Energy is a strategic asset – giving away partial control over it to people whose only interest is short-term profit is not resilience-enhancing.

Does a government pogrom against the teachers’ unions starting with national standards, charter schools, league tables, and performance pay along with restrictions on right to strike enhance the resilience of our education system? No, it does quite the opposite – it funnels the best teachers towards the schools of the elite’s children and degrades the education of everyone else. That’s its intention and the long-term result is a bigger tail of under-achievement, with negative impacts on our society and economy that last generations.

Does a programme of more and more centralised government, where councils are folded into ‘supercities’ and executive government seizes dictatorial powers without due cause enhance our resilience? No. At the heart of resilience is strength in depth; the ability to organise and be self-sufficient not just at the national and regional level but community level too. That is being rapidly eroded by the government’s power grabs.

Is it resilient when we are expending 3.5% of GDP on importing oil, which powers nearly our entire road transport network, and a 10% price bump sucks another $700m a year out of our economy? Is it resilience-enhancing, in the face of rising oil prices driven by peak oil, to increase our dependency on imported oil with massive highway building projects, which don’t make economic sense even under the rosy official calculations? Is it resilience-enhancing to burn billions of dollars to get worthless assets, which hook us on to burning more oil when less and less is available? Obviously not.

Do attacks on the wages, work rights, and collective bargaining rights of New Zealanders enhance our resilience? No. They make us even more dependent on the whims of foreign owners and the good will of our bosses. A steady, secure, adequate income and meaningful employment is the basis of freedom. We are moving away from that at a rate of knots.

A resilient New Zealand is a land of well-educated, empowered citizens who have livelihoods that allow them to support their families and have a real say in the rules and decisions which affect their lives. It is a land where we are not reliant on overseas producers and owners whose interests don’t match our own for the necessities of a modern economy, where we retain ownership over the core of our economy and the ability to make things for ourselves.

It’s nice that pundits are finally starting to realise that resilience, not growth, will be the watchword of the next 50 years but lets see them actually challenge the government to get on with the job.

We are not building a resilient New Zealand under National, we are destroying it.

35 comments on “Waiting for the other shoe to drop”

  1. aerobubble 1

    So some Chinese or Indian parents decide to abort their female fetus,
    and they get the ‘status’ of a male child. But when those men grow
    up and can’t find a female partner, what then? So essentially its
    paying back (as opposed to paying forward), male offspring are paying
    back their parents in higher status immediately (as parents of a boy) in return
    for increae likelihood they won’t find a partner to have children with.

    This is much like the World, who are forcing their grandkids to payback
    them in cheap oil today to fuel a consumer lifestyle without the
    possibility of their kids having the same luck.

    But where does it all lead? Well the thinking does not just stop at
    chldren, or energy, its been with us a long time. Take Hitler degenerate
    views about evolution, that the fit survive – so Ayrans can kill the unfit
    but evolution says no such thing! evolution says those that HAVE
    survived are the fittest. There’s a reason why dwarfism, homosexuality,
    autism, etc all exist, they help societies to grow empathy and acceptance
    of diversity, and even give different views of what it means to be human.
    Societies that killed the weak didn’t survive.

    At the core of ‘paying back’, forcing future generations to give
    up children, or live low energy lifestyles, or even premature death
    in a Nazi concentration camp, is the ideal that the lazy who can maintain
    a lie should be rewarded for their lazy thinking. Whether this be the
    lazy thinking that aborting a female fetus, or borrowing on future
    growth projections based about infinite oil reserves, or taking trapped
    carbon from under the crust and burning it, or as Hitler did argue
    that because he was the strong then he needed to defend his position
    by killing off those he thought weak (though they were not).

    Summing up, we live in a world Hitler created for us, that the strong
    must destroy the weak, and hold to lies despite all facts to the contrary.
    NZ is exporting its future, leaving its kids starving, its families fleeing
    for Australia, despite the highest commodity prices for a generation.
    Sorry but any statistic that says NZ is no one on humanity has its
    measure hopelessly flawed, especailly when the NZ economy is open
    to the world unlike many others (and so much be measured in light
    that it is the richer end of the city call the world),

  2. tsmithfield 2

    “Does a programme of more and more centralised government, where councils are folded into ‘supercities’ and executive government seizes dictatorial powers without due cause enhance our resilience? No. At the heart of resilience is strength in depth; the ability to organise and be self-sufficient not just at the national and regional level but community level too. That is being rapidly eroded by the government’s power grabs.”

    OTOH, “too many cooks spoil the brew”.

    “Is it resilient when we are expending 3.5% of GDP on importing oil, which powers nearly our entire road transport network, and a 10% price bump sucks another $700m a year out of our economy? Is it resilience-enhancing, in the face of rising oil prices driven by peak oil, to increase our dependency on imported oil with massive highway building projects, which don’t make economic sense even under the rosy official calculations? Is it resilience-enhancing to burn billions of dollars to get worthless assets, which hook us on to burning more oil when less and less is available? Obviously not.”

    Quite right. Which is exactly why we should be developing our off-shore oil reserves.

    • Ari 2.1

      In none of our democratic institutions do we have five hundred representatives, or other similar numbers that perfectly stable democracies in Europe or the States have managed. The fact is that in many ways we are under-represented both on local councils and in our Parliament. We are nowhere close to having too many cooks. Germany, after whom our MMP system is modelled, has 620 MPs and is an incredibly stable democracy.

      As to off-shore oil reserves… given that oil companies clearly do not have the safety practices in place to mine safely off-shore, I’d say that they should remain untouched purely on that basis, let alone the fact that we want to be moving to other fuels as soon as possible to minimise additional temperature increases, and reduce our potential future liability for climate refugees from pacific nations.

      • McFlock 2.1.1

        Germany has 82 million citizens: 620 federal reps give national representation at 1:131935 citizens. NZ has 120 mps for 4 million citizens, or 1:33333 citizens.
         
        I agree about offshore mining, though – why risk a $19bil p.a. tourist industry simply to support speculative exploration and unsafe, expensive extraction?

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.1.1

          Our tourist industry is not going to last until 2025. Unless vistors start coming by steamers of course.

          • McFlock 2.1.1.1.1

            Which isn’t actually out of the question. Aircraft will and are taking a big hit, but that just means a resurgence in shipping and the “cruise” experience. 
             
            And if the economy does indeed crash that catastrophically to the point that international travel is broken, then deep sea drilling would also be not cost effective. So “drill baby drill” is still, on a strict economic basis, a dumb idea.
              

            • Lanthanide 2.1.1.1.1.1

              “And if the economy does indeed crash that catastrophically to the point that international travel is broken, then deep sea drilling would also be not cost effective. So “drill baby drill” is still, on a strict economic basis, a dumb idea.”

              Not true. Shipping people around the world is very expensive because they demand to be treated humanely: they want comfortable seats, air conditioning, food, lavatories etc. Shipping goods around the world is much cheaper.

              • aerobubble

                I disagree. Planes for long haul will always be cheaper than trains. And planes from Auckland to Sydney will always be cheaper in time than the alternative. So I suspect those people whose time is valuable will be served, and long haul tourism packing out the plane will also be. What peak oil means is the car town mentality will change.

            • ChrisH 2.1.1.1.1.2

              Jets use 10x less fuel per passenger-km than passenger ships, because they are comparatively light and quick. Going backwards won’t work, unless it is to sail.

        • tsmithfield 2.1.1.2

          “In none of our democratic institutions do we have five hundred representatives, or other similar numbers that perfectly stable democracies in Europe or the States have managed.”

          Three word rebuttal:

          Sovereign Debt Crisis

        • Zetetic 2.1.1.3

          it’s absurd to only look at the number of federal representatives and compare that to NZ. How many state reps in Germany?

          And the whole point that James is making is that national representation alone isn’t enough.

          Back when we were the wealthiest per head nation in the world communities as small as Mt Albert had their own councils.

          • tsmithfield 2.1.1.3.1

            Expanding on my three word rebuttal:

            The sovereign debt crisis seems to be lacking resolution due to two key factors IMO.

            1. Politicians wanting to make popular rather than necessary decisions.
            2. Lots of politicians each with their own point of view therefore unable to come to an agreement on an effective decision for the way forward.

            So far as the sovereign debt crisis and the number of politicians is concerned, less is definitely more.

            • Zetetic 2.1.1.3.1.1

              Even if your causes of the crisis are correct, and I don’t think they are, your logic doesn’t follow. You’re always going to have some politicians (even if you’re anti-democracy, there’s still going to be some kind of power structure) – fewer politicians just means fewer checks and balances.

              It wasn’t too many local councils in NZ that caused the sovereign debt crisis, so pointing to the sovereign debt crisis as a reason for more centralisation of political power into the hands of Cabinet doesn’t make sense.

              • tsmithfield

                The flip side of more checks and balances is indecision and paralysis which can be fatal when quick action is required.

                • Colonial Viper

                  Indeed. We need good leaders willing to put their necks on the line, and willing to justify their decisions in detail after the fact.

                • aerobubble

                  Yes, not only do you need a scaffold, but you need to man it with competents, the alternative is not to have any government. This is why don’t trust the right, because they don’t want scaffolds, competence people pointing out the safety hazards, or any government intervention.

                  We need some government, and the less is better, but only less when it is BETTER. The problem I see it is we need people to watch the watchers, and that was where the rich use to come in, they would fund the civil rights movement, or the government watchdogs, but they all switchs to funding the foxes to watch where the chickens were laying.

        • aerobubble 2.1.1.4

          Germany has less representation. Please are you alright in the head. Germany *HAS* the EU parliament! Germans are represented there too! So please keep you NZ statistical stupor in check.

    • Ianupnorth 2.2

      We already have considerable meaningful energy sources that can be captured in clean way, problem is the start up costs are not cheap.
       
      I for one think that drilling for oil on the edge of the Pacific Rim of Fire is fraught with danger. Maybe they should drill for oil off Hawaii?

    • Colonial Viper 2.3

      Quite right. Which is exactly why we should be developing our off-shore oil reserves.

      Your point would be valid if the Government was developing oil, gas and coal mines owned and controlled by the NZ state.

      Your point is invalid because the National Government is doing all of the above to sell off to foreigners.

      In other words, National don’t give a fuck about making NZ resilient, they just care about flogging off our natural energy assets to foreigners who also don’t give a fuck about making NZ resilient.

      • Georgecom 2.3.1

        The oil discovered in NZ is shipped offshore, as global prices, for refining and we import refined fuel, at worlds prices, to power our vehicle fleet. The latter of course costs more than the former.

        Agreed that there is nothing in the Governments ‘plan’ (drill and hope poliicy) that presents a solution to oil price rises. If a state oil company drilled and a state oil company refined then there may be some possibility of insulation from high international oil prices. Haven’t seen any policy like that forthcoming from the John Key Government.

        Otherwise, NZ will simply be a part of the global circuit of energy.

        • lostinsuburbia 2.3.1.1

          The problem is though that a lot of our offshore “reserves” are in technically difficult conditions. Leaving aside the environmental risks of off-shore drilling aside, the high cost of investigation and explotation of those fields is significant and would be probably more that we could afford as a nation.

          I”m no fan of the oil companies but I’d rather they take on the financial risk of these fields than the NZ Government. Similar experience overseas shows that collaborations between several major energy companies are needed to exploit such resources and such investment does not always succeed.

          These fields also take significant energy inputs to develop, increasing costs and their impact on our energy reserves. For instance, a Saudi well producing sweet crude (which is our current major source of oil) produces energy at a ratio of 100:1 (100 barrels of oil produced for an energy investment of 1 barrel of oil), where as onshore fracking delivers 3:1. The more extreme the conditions faced with offshore reserves the worse the energy reserve will get, negating most of the effort.

          The other choke point in the process is our refining capacity. Marsden Point can only produce so much product, most of which is piped to Auckland. We would have significantly expand our refining capacity to meet demand – which again would be an expensive proposition. Refining also needs a affordable energy source to frack the crude oil into the various petrochemicals – currently natural gas is used (and which is piped from Taranaki). However, our natural gas reserves are dwindling so the difficulty would be in powering any new refineries (unless we want to ship LNG to NZ).

          There would also be the needed to greatly expand our national pipeline system (currently dedicated to natural gas) but also dock facilities for coastal tankers (if they are collecting oil/gas from wells are delivering it to our refineries/distribution points).

          Of course the alternative is to use less energy, but even with energy efficiency measures, we will still need plenty of petrochemicals for our agriculture (i.e. fuel to run harvesters, processing plants), emergency services, and distribution. Population growth will also force higher energy demands.

          Its a real problem, but there are not really any solutions currently. While we can improve our energy use, and switch some processes to electricity (e.g. some electric vehicles), oil and its products are just too damn useful and there are no reliable alternatives available (which I agree is a concern given the fears of peak oil)

          But energy self-sufficiency is not likely to happen, we are part of a global energy market whether we like it or not.

      • prism 2.3.2

        NACTs want to stride around doing important deals, having well heeled people call on them, shout them dinners and fine wines, and be seen as men (he embraces she) capable of doing the heavy lifting of big deals. Big deal! It will look good on their CVs, ordinary small businessmen in NZ will look with admiration at them, and they will be making precious contacts that will further their interests in post-politician days. NZs best interests don’t enter into it. To some extent Muldoon attempted to do this with the Taranaki fuel plants, but he didn’t get much credit for it when the market improved and it became uneconomic.

        Now I look at what I’ve written it provides part of the answer as to why Gerry Brownlee got appointed Chch supremo. Someone to do the heavy lifting?

    • mik e 2.4

      yeah right tsm where are these reserves and what volume what cost to bring the oil to market who’s going to own them .Figures have shown that even with a moderate find the economy will not benefit in fact its going to case a huge distortion in our currency value that will destroy our farming industry!
      Once again the rights answer is nothing more than a fallacy!

  3. James, I support your thoughts on education and would also say that it reveals much about the modus operandi of this government when they deliberately attack the education sector with radical change when there is little evidence to show it is necessary. Their intentions are not around improving outcomes for children but limiting the influence of the teaching profession and knee capping New Zealand’s largest union:

    http://localbodies-bsprout.blogspot.com/2011/12/government-attacks-new-zealands-highest.html

  4. prism 4

    James
    It has seemed to me a pointer to the brightness, the receptiveness, and well-informed aspect of a flexible New Zealand majority that we have such high use of libraries and night classes. To learn and adapt in the most advantageous way to the winds of change I thought would be more likely to come from this fertile garden of knowledge gatherers and thinkers.

    But the moves of right-wingers seem to be towards cutting down education to a prescripted, limited version where there is little intellectual curiosity, little understanding of the way society orders itself ie civics etc., historic changes in society and how hard it is to achieve change, how to judge the value of changes also and problem solving.

    I think that many who have gone into politics have succeeded to pass some test of their ability in business or elsewhere and have focussed on such an end and then carry that focus forward in a TINA way. They don’t understand much outside of the prescribed fashionable approach and asked to think outside their square, query ‘is there money in it’? before doing so.

    So they don’t consider a wide education for everybody of value, and are shutting it down and the wider thinking that tends to follow it, because they themselves never bother with it – they don’t read to understand the wider issues but to gain information to further their interests or to confirm their prejudices. And reading paper pages is out even librarians place technology before the actual physical resources that have built our understandings. Goggling at computers that insert technology as a step which can also be a barrier to our information stream is the latest money-making thing and that has much appeal to the machine-like minds of the top ants.

    • Jan 4.1

      Yep, same goes for Triangle Stratos and TVNZ 7. Sacrificed in favour of the Sky/Fox approach to news-gathering. In general though with the focus on enabling the old smokestack/” where there’s there’s muck there’s brass” approach to economic development (whether it be farms, mining, industry, transport  or energy generation) the government is busy solving the problems of 1912’s not those of  2012.

  5. Alan Howard-smith 5

    Particularly striking that Australia’s Gillard today goes out of her way to defend the presence of trade unions in Australian society and even their influence on the Australian Labor Party.

    Australia makes a stark comparator to us. So much of their competitive advantage is now about the relative strength of their collectivist institutions to ours. Their apparent redundancy reverses in any moment of crisis.

    Crises are apparently increasing in New Zealand, and yet Colin James fails to link crisis and public institutional capacity in a political sense. Witness the Christchurch earthquake response. The role of regional government there had been so circumscribed by the state, and so brutally amputated politically, that it had to set up an entirely new institution -CERA- to deal with the crisis. In David Lange’s response to Cyclone Bola he was able to get the Ministry of Works and the Army to work closely together for some time. Institutional redundancy really is necessary to have a consistently functioning country.

    How many more crises will it take for this government to ask us to unite in a more than emotional sense?

    Obviously Australian institutional strength provides superior disaster response. But even absent crisis, this does make their capacity stronger in other ways. The most prominent collectivist institutions Australia has is in they multiple layers of government; shire to city to state to federal to senate. Not only for the democratic resilience they provide, but also for the degree of bureaucratic specialization. This makes policy formation oddly stronger as with regular tension and overlap, the democratic contest is stronger between layers. Policy specialisation also makes for really attractive employment for public servants. None of that is now available here.

    One only wonder what an Australian State government would have offered to keep Fonterra at the Auckland sea port -compare for example what happens when Holden or Ford make noises about shutting manufacturing down in Victoria or South Australia. We seriously need governments who are prepared to strengthen our collective concerns into collective institutions making deals on our collective behalf.

    What we are seeing with so many of our best and brightest going to Australia is the competitive advantage of resilience made manifest. Mobile people like a strong set of political and cultural and economic institutions, and vote with their capital and their careers.

    The medium term effects of the Auckland restructure is the political hollowing-out to match the economic hollowing-out that is completed both with the regionalization of our local politics and the sale of our remaining state businesses.

    The alternative is to presume we are better off as disaggregated,, atomistic competitors running around by the thousand asking “what can I do? What can I do?”

    To me the will to collective strength – and the growth of compelling public institutions as a result – should be at the core of a new progressive program.

    • prism 5.1

      Google –

      Fonterra stunned by Maersk move | Stuff.co.nz
      http://www.stuff.co.nz/…news/news/…/Fonterra-stunned-by-Maersk-move
      26 Jul 2011 – Fonterra says it is as surprised as anyone that container shipping line Maersk has dumped Port Taranaki from its New Zealand service. … “Maersk ceasing the New Plymouth call certainly wasn’t part of our master plan.” …

      This is what happens (along with the Rena) when we step away from managing our own important services and infrastructure.

  6. randal 6

    well the nashnil gubmint is the party of business so lets see them gererate some jobs or do we just get the same tired old hacks repeating the same old tired cliches ad nauseum.
    if all else fails then I want some funding and a “VAN” for a project that I wont tell you what it is.

  7. lostinsuburbia 7

    Of course the other issue is that once the proverbial hits the fan there will be a fair few people that will want a piece of us.

    I’m not advocating turning us into a military state, but when resources start running out, international relations will get very messy and violent.

  8. Skeptic to the max 8

    You make a crucial point lostinsuburbia re resources running out. TVNZ7 Doco of the week (this week) called “Consumer”, attacks the heart of the world’s problems- hence NZ too; and the answer is not in the easy solutions proffered, it isn’t in the owning of ‘things’, the “GDP”, the Government, the economy.

    Whilst the analysis by Henderson above looks to the solution being ”  empowered citizens ….and have a real say in the rules and decisions which affect their lives.”; we are long past that ‘ideal’ and ability now. Who are we kidding, power in the hands of the people???  “That is being rapidly eroded by the government’s power grabs.”….power is not in the hands of the Government either. The much quoted 1% are in charge. The millions and billions of profit rule. That’s PROFIT, not costs, not the dollars the 1% might give to charity to appease their conscience, not the  minimum efforts or $$$ they purport to make in ethical??? efforts to save the planet; BUT PROFIT.

    The PEOPLE sold themselves out and the lives of those around them playing into the hands of the private profiteers. The threat was and still is in every household and today even from babyhood, our children are indoctrinated, and the solution to the “problem” of poverty, ‘slave’ wages, dying environments was because the first world fell into ‘individualism’ by own choice. We wanted things, more things than we knew what to do with, things that just perish. “Communalism” because of our wanting things disappeared.The wanting moved people past values of caring even about the negative consequences of where and at what cost a ‘product’ came to us. We’d be lying to deny that the constant aquisition of things, stupid things even# became a tool to measure ourselves by; our value became in the things we acquired to match the Joneses. We sucked in to the profiteers selling us the idea that unless we used or had this or that we were of lesser value.
     If people are exloited, poor, dying and the Earth’s resources are #F#d; first worlders played their part and at a phenominal rate we’re still doing it. We are the players in our own demise…don’t blame Governments they just assist with the rulemaking for the banks and coperate business. These profiteers when the chips are down do not even have loyality to their own nation, nor hang around to fix the mess. HEINZ a classic example today…shit on your own, # the people, sack em and move factory to good old NZ ‘cos the “profit margin” is better avoiding greater taxes, exploiting labour regulations and cheap labour.Cross fingers too when the new labour reforms proposed will help them literally contribute to a global ‘killing’.

    The Doco is really thought provoking and looks back from the 1950’s to now and from the shortest time in history shows how each and everyone is playing their part in their own destruction. “Us” first worlders shitting on others first just to fool ourselves that the inevitable is just not happening..?

    Here’s one aspect of the “problem” to ponder on…. a smirking Mr. Burns gleefully rubbing his clammy little hands together-: We have a Prime Minister who made the rich list at $55 million big ones, which is then still re-invested to make even more money, money, money. In one’s middle age tell me how obscene can that be…how the ###F### can you spend that much profit in a lifetime, WHAT FOR?? Only so many luxury houses can be lived in, only nth number of luxury cars, facelifts for the aged wife, private elite education,holidays…. and the irony is the same damn maggots that will eat his decomposing flesh also eat the people whom the PM exploited globally in his trading.

    Would $50 million back to say, fair wages or untouched rainforest, be less of an evil and the PM live on $5million until death ( without suffering much at all) be a better balance? And Jk is only a small minion in the scheme of profiteers of whom we are sustaining their power!

  9. randal 9

    just more words.
    if anyone proposes a concrete solution then its shoot em down quick.
    any movement towards a new economy means the old fogeys and their revenue streams get left behind and they will do all in their power to make sure that never happens and innovation and creativity are just words that accountants mumble when they are drunk at parties.

  10. J.Doherty 10

    While the Earth has always endured natural climate change variability, we are now facing the possibility of irreversible climate change in the near future. The increase of greenhouse gases in the Earth?s atmosphere from industrial processes has enhanced the natural greenhouse effect. This in turn has accentuated the greenhouse ?trap? effect, causing greenhouse gases to form a blanket around the Earth, inhibiting the sun?s heat from leaving the outer atmosphere. This increase of greenhouse gases is causing an additional warming of the Earth?s surface and atmosphere. A direct consequence of this is sea-level rise expansion, which is primarily due to the thermal expansion of oceans (water expands when heated), inducing the melting of ice sheets as global surface temperature increases.
    Forecasts for climate change by the 2,000 scientists on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) project a rise in the global average surface temperature by 1.4 to 5.8°C from 1990 to 2100. This will result in a global mean sea level rise by an average of 5 mm per year over the next 100 years. Consequently, human-induced climate change will have ?deleterious effects? on ecosystems, socio-economic systems and human welfare.At the moment, especially high risks associated with the rise of the oceans are having a particular impact on the two archipelagic states of Western Polynesia: Tuvalu and Kiribati. According to UN forecasts, they may be completely inundated by the rising waters of the Pacific by 2050.According to the vast majority of scientific investigations, warming waters and the melting of polar and high-elevation ice worldwide will steadily raise sea levels. This will likely drive people off islands first by spoiling the fresh groundwater, which will kill most land plants and leave no potable water for humans and their livestock. Low-lying island states like Kiribati, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and the Maldives are the most prominent nations threatened in this way.“The biggest challenge is to preserve their nationality without a territory,” said Bogumil Terminski from Geneva. The best solution is continue to recognize deterritorialized states as a normal states in public international law. The case of Kiribati and other small island states is a particularly clear call to action for more secure countries to respond to the situations facing these ‘most vulnerable nations’, as climate change increasingly impacts upon their lives.

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  • Challenging the voting age in court
    The Make It 16 campaign to lower the voting age is launching this afternoon, and they have already announced plans to challenge the law in court:The campaign, named "Make it 16" will launch at Parliament on Friday, with plans to take their case to the High Court, testing the rights ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Israel’s elections herald a long siesta
    by Daphna Whitmore The long years of Netanyahu’s reign are drawing to an end. For years he has epitomized reactionary zionism as he oversaw hundreds of thousands of Jewish settlers seize land in the West Bank. There are now 700,000 settlers, putting an end to the myth that Israel was ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 days ago
  • Petrol companies promise prices will come back down once peace is restored to the Middle East
    BP, Z and Mobil all insist that petrol price hikes are temporary, “in a very literal sense.” The nation’s major petrol providers are trying to allay customer fears over prices, promising that they’ll move to lower them again “immediately” when the Middle East is returned to its formerly peaceful state. ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    3 days ago
  • All Blacks unveil boat for Rugby World Cup 2019
    South African coach Rassie Erasmus says he has no idea what they’re going to do about the boat. In a highly anticipated press conference this afternoon, All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has finally unveiled the team’s boat for its Rugby World Cup 2019 campaign. In a press conference that went ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    3 days ago
  • An increasingly shoddy coverup
    The Operation Burnham inquiry continued to question senior NZDF staff today, and their shoddy coverup over their knowledge of civilian casualties continue to fall apart. If you recall, first, we were asked to believe that it was all a series of "mistakes and errors": a senior officer with multiple degrees ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • If we are to avoid making the earth uninhabitable, we need to rapidly decarbonise our civilisation, and cut emissions to zero as quickly as possible. This seems like an impossible task, but its not. Pushing hard on a few technologies and trends will let us halve emissions in a decade:Greenhouse ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • A further attack on transparency
    The Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Bill (No 2) had part of its committee stage yesterday. its a generally tedious bill about the nitty-gritty of local government reorganisation. But it includes a clause making the Local Government Commission subject to the Ombudsmen Act, and hence the OIA. Great! Except of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Ihumātao and Treaty settlements
    Yesterday Ihumātao's mana whenua reached a consensus that they would like their land back, and asked the government to negotiate with Fletcher's for its return. The government's response? Try and undermine that consensus, while talking about how doing anything would undermine existing Treaty settlements. The first is just more bad ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Protecting our history
    Its Suffrage Day, the 126th anniversary of women winning the right to vote (but not stand in elections) in New Zealand. And to celebrate, the government has bought Kate Sheppard's house in Christchurch:The government has bought Kate Sheppard's former home in Christchurch for more than $4 million. The Ilam villa ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Ostracising the coal-burners
    The UN climate summit is happening in new York next week, and unlike previous years, coal-burners and denier-states are not being invited to speak:Leading economies such as Japan and Australia will not be invited to speak at next week’s crunch UN climate change summit, as their continued support for coal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • Jojo Tamihere Salutes Herr Goff.
    Get Back Jojo! The elation in Mayor Phil Goff’s camp may be easily imagined as they watched social media light up in indignation at challenger John Tamihere’s "Sieg Heil to that" quip. Just when JT’s notoriously right-wing, sexist and homophobic stains were beginning to fade back into his ‘colourful’ past, ...
    3 days ago
  • Hard News: A fun but flawed weed documentary
    Patrick Gower is good value when he's high. Not that I've ever, you know, got stoned with him. But in the second part of his documentary Patrick Gower on Weed, he does what you'd expect in a modern weed documentary and immerses himself – first with a doctor, then a ...
    4 days ago
  • Candidate Survey: Western Bay of Plenty – Local Body Elections 2019
    We surveyed candidates on their attitudes to issues facing the Western Bay Region, find out what they think: “Closing the Gap” Tauranga, one of the area groups of Income Equality Aotearoa NZ Inc., has surveyed all candidates in the three local body elections to discover attitudes to some basic issues ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    4 days ago
  • Project Nettie calls on scientists to defend biology
    Please spread widely, and sign, to support science and rationalism over the new irrationalism sweeping universities and institutions.  PROJECT NETTIE Sexual reproduction, the generation of offspring by fusion of genetic material from two different individuals, evolved over 1 billion years ago. It is the reproductive strategy of all higher animals ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • I’m glad I don’t live in Auckland
    Just when I was thinking that Palmerston North's mayoral race (which includes a convicted child molester / public wanker and a convicted child beater) was the worst in the country, Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere opened his mouth:Auckland mayoral candidate John Tamihere is being slammed for using the words "sieg ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Index of Power Update, 2018-19: China #2
    We reprint below an article from the excellent website the Economics of Imperialism by Tony Norfield This is an update of the statistics for my Index of Power, using data for 2018-19 and discussing what a country’s ranking reflects. The major change is that China’s rank has shifted up and ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: A history lesson
    Why is New Zealand climate change policy so crap? The Herald this morning has a long article on the twists and turns of climate change policy in New Zealand [paywalled / depaywall script], which shows where we've been. The short version is that the government first began worrying about this ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • What the All Blacks Mean to Us
    The All Blacks have been, for more than a century, arguably the most successful International sports team in the world. But they are more than that; even for those Kiwis who are immune to the charms of rugby (and there are more than a few), the All Blacks are ambassadors ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    4 days ago
  • No one is born into the wrong body
    A short and incredibly powerful speech from a young lesbian woman. No one is born in the wrong body. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    5 days ago
  • Contempt
    Back in June, the UK Court of Appeal ruled that that country's continued arms sales to Saudi Arabia were unlawful. So you'd expect that the UK government stopped approving them, right?Of course not:The government has apologised for breaching a court ruling against the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Covering up the cover-up
    Yesterday NZDF officials were put on the stand about the lies they had told over Operation Burnham, making implausible claims that it was all a big mistake. But along the way, we learned they had already been put on the spot about it by a previous Defence Minister, who had ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Not as important as they think they are
    Farmers have been whining a lot lately, about the methane targets in the Zero Carbon Bill, about Canterbury's proposed nitrogen limits, and about the government's new proposals to stop them from shitting in our lakes and rivers. These policies are "throwing farmers under the tractor", they will force farmers off ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Behind Every Good Woman Should Stand – Another Good Woman.
    Alone, Alone, All, All, Alone: To argue that the Prime Minister is the victim of her advisers’ failure to keep her informed may offer Jacinda some measure of exoneration – but only at the cost of casting her as a hopeless political ingénue. A star-dusted muppet, whose only purpose is to ...
    5 days ago
  • Poor quality, poorly educated kiddie ‘Journalists’ spreading fake news
    In times of hysteria about the “World coming to an end” and “rising sea levels” so-called ‘Journalists’ who can barely spell words longer than four letters are having a ball! Though the majority of the Public have worked out that manmade climate change is nothing short of pseudo-science, and the ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    5 days ago
  • Chris Trotter on the BFD
    I don't want to give pblicity to certain parts of the internet that are better left to fester in their own irrelevance (I know, a bit like this place) but the listing of Chris Trotter as a 'author' on Cameron Slater's spinoff website, the BFD requires some explanation.Now, I don't ...
    6 days ago
  • Sex is not a spectrum
    The text below is a Twitter thread by Heather Heying that explains the essence of sexual reproduction and it long evolutionary history. She is an evolutionary biologist and a “professor-in-exile” after she and her husband, Bret Weinstein, stood up to supporters of an enforced “Day of Absence” for white staff and teachers ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: Trees, aviation, and offsets
    With crunch time for new Zealand climate policy approaching, most of the New Zealand media have got on board with a global reporting effort to cover the issue. There's one strand of stories today about polling and what it shows about changing public attitudes to the crisis, but the strand ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Pissing-Off The Israelis Is A High-Risk Strategy.
    Dangerous Foes: For those readers of Bowalley Road who feel disposed to dismiss any prospect of an Israeli destabilisation of New Zealand politics, the example of the United Kingdom repays close attention. Ever since the election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the British Labour Party, the Israelis have sanctioned, funded and ...
    6 days ago
  • Something to go to in Wellington
    Make It 16, the youth-led campaign to lower New Zealand's voting age, is holding an official campaign launch at Parliament this Friday from 16:30. If you'd like to attend, you can register using EventBrite here. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • A founding member responds to Peace Action Wellington
    by Don Franks It was a lovely sunny Wellington afternoon with blue skies above  the beaches.  In Courtenay Place, political activists packed out a stuffy upstairs room for an important meeting. The assembled pacifists, anarchists, communists and independent young radicals of Peace Action Wellington felt the need for a mission ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    6 days ago
  • “Mistakes and errors”
    Current and former NZDF top brass are being publicly grilled this week by the hit and run inquiry over their public responses to allegations of civilian casualties. Previously, they've claimed there were no casualties, a position which led them to lie to Ministers and to the public. Now, they're saying ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • “Homosexuality is same-sex attraction and relationships, not heterosexuals with delusions of gende...
    by Rafael D. Quiles (gender-critical gay man from Puerto Rico) The writing on the wall is right in people’s faces and people just don’t see it or don’t want to. What could actually possess a heterosexual male to want to feminize himself and claim that he is a lesbian? Because ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    7 days ago
  • Trump: “Where’s my favourite dictator?”
    From the Wall Street Journal:Inside a room of the ornately decorated Hotel du Palais during last month’s Group of Seven summit in Biarritz, France, President Trump awaited a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Mr. Trump looked over a gathering of American and Egyptian officials and called out in ...
    7 days ago
  • Magdalen Burns, 1983-2019, fighter for women’s liberation
    by the Redline blog collective At Redline we are very saddened to hear of the death of Magdalen Burns who passed away on the morning of Friday, September 13 (British time). Magdalen was a great fighter for the rights of women in general and lesbian women in particular, a defender ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Parliament and the Executive
    The Brexit issue has certainly brought with it a series of apparently difficult constitutional issues, many of them concerning the respective roles of the executive and parliament. Most of them arise because of the unwillingness of MPs, despite their professions to the contrary, to be bound by a constitutional rarity ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • The Abigail Article; Martyn Bradbury’s Article, and My Response
    . . This blogpost is different to my usual format of reporting on issues… Since July 1011, I have blogged on a variety of political issues; near always political and/or environmental; mostly highly critical of the previous National Government. Other issues included Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and repression of ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Police will have to wear silly Buckingham Palace hats from now on, says Police Minister
    Those close to the Police Minister believe the initiative may be the result of Nash “seeing a great deal” on AliExpress. In a move that comes seemingly out of nowhere, Police Minister Stuart Nash announced this afternoon that he expects all frontline staff to don bearskin hats, famously worn by ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • A sensible crackdown
    The government has released its Arms Legislation Bill, containing the second tranche of changes to gun laws following the March 15 massacre. And it all looks quite sensible: a national gun register, higher penalties for illegal possession and dealing, tighter restrictions on arms dealers and shooting clubs, and a shorter ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    1 week ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 weeks ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    2 weeks ago

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