Wellington Central: Should Grant Robertson Stand Aside?
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2:12 pm, July 19th, 2020 - 47 comments
Categories: articles, class war, Deep stuff, democratic participation, election 2020, grant robertson, greens, james shaw, labour, national, Politics, the praiseworthy and the pitiful -
Tags: election 2020, grant robertson, james shaw, wellington central
I posted last week on why it would be in the best interests of the citizens of the Auckland Central electorate for the Green candidate to stand aside to allow the Labour candidate to win.
In short, I wrote that the Greens had no chance of winning the seat and their historical influence had only been to ensure National won it instead of Labour, meaning that local battlers doing it tough had no empathetic electorate MP to help them in times of trouble.
That piece generated two excellent posts here on The Standard, a factually inaccurate response on Pete George’s Your NZ, and best of all, a a load of hot air from the Sir Bufton Tufton of the blogging world, Chris Trotter, who couldn’t even get the difference between strategy and tactics correct.
Trotter was so exercised by the thought of an intelligent political response to the situation in Ak Central, he resorted to the tired old right wing claim that the Standard is run by the Labour Party. And in a moment of Freudian sexism, Trotter also managed to mangle the name of the Labour Party president, Claire Szabó.
By the way, it’s worth noting that the Daily Blog has not corrected the misnaming, despite being alerted to it. That’s poor form, but consistent with what I hear about the editor’s attitude toward women he doesn’t approve of.
So, to Wellington Central.
It’s a high population density central city seat where the Greens have built up a good on the ground organisation and with James Shaw as candidate in the last 3 elections have averaged nearly 6000 electorate votes and, importantly, 10,000 party votes.
Internationally, Green parties tend to do well in central urban electorates. Across the ditch, the major cities there, particularly Melbourne, strategically vote Green.
It makes sense for the Greens here in NZ to fight hard in those inner city seats. Wellington is no different, and it’s worth remembering that the seat has gone to a smaller party once under MMP. Who won it? I’ll tell you at the end of the post.
So should Grant Robertson stand aside to allow James Shaw a clear run at the seat?
Tactically speaking, it could work a charm.
In the last 3 elections, National has had a consistent vote in both electorate and party vote of less than 40%. The current Tory candidate, Nicola Willis, even managed to drag her personal vote down into the 20’s at the 2017 poll.
The risk is low and the potential gain is high. Lose one electorate seat, gain a coalition partner.
If Grant Robertson did step aside, I firmly believe James Shaw would be the next MP for Wellington Central.
However, it’s not going to happen.
Both parties, as I understand it, are committed to standing, and campaigning, in every seat.
This has been Labour’s position since its founding and it’s not going to change.
However, there have been times when a nod and a wink from Labour have worked a treat.
The Rangitikei by-election in 1978 was won by Social Credit’s Bruce Beetham, who retained the seat in 1981.
The Coromandel electorate was won by the Greens in 1999.
And, more recently, Northland was won by NZ First in the 2015 by-election.
For the record, the only two votes I have ever cast that were not for Labour, were in two of the above mentioned elections. I’m chuffed to have helped defeat National both times.
However, in the long run, I don’t think it’s good for our democracy to do electorate deals. It borders on arrogance and that’s best left to the Tories.
Unless there is a clear call from the voters themselves, as can be argued for the 3 exceptions above, I can’t see a need for any result in Wellington Central other than Grant Robertson MP being re-elected and both Labour and the Greens picking up swags of party votes.
We should all be happy if that’s the way it works out.
Oh, and who won Wellington Central for a minor party?
Former Auckland Central MP Richard Prebble for ACT in the first MMP election in 1996.
Be careful what you wish for, whanau!
47 comments on “Wellington Central: Should Grant Robertson Stand Aside? ”
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- Release: National’s traffic light system has child poverty reduction stallingNational’s cuts to funding for beneficiaries will once again leave children and their parents with less, Spokesperson for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni said. ...1 week ago
- Green Party will end child poverty
The Green Party will double the Best Start payment and make it available for every child under three years of age - and it will be paid for with a fair tax system. ...1 week ago - Release: Labour pledges billion-dollar medicines boostLabour will fund more medicines for more New Zealanders by investing over $1 billion of new funding into Pharmac if re-elected, Chris Hipkins announced today. ...1 week ago
- National's welfare policy is cruelThe National Party’s job seeker policy announced today is heartless. ...1 week ago
- Labour's PHARMAC Policy A PlaceboLabour has just announced a policy to increase Pharmac funding by $1billion over four years to fund additional medicines. With the current Pharmac budget of $1.2billion per year and needing a further $213million, by Minister Verrall’s own admission, just to keep up with current costs - then this is nothing ...1 week ago
- Labour's PHARMAC Policy A PlaceboLabour has just announced a policy to increase Pharmac funding by $1billion over four years to fund additional medicines. With the current Pharmac budget of $1.2billion per year and needing a further $213million, by Minister Verrall’s own admission, just to keep up with current costs - then this is nothing ...1 week ago
- Re: The Call For Corporate Manslaughter LegislationThis matter begins with the Pike River investigation being inadequate, inexplicably lengthy, and after millions of dollars, the evidence that should have been placed before the public still has not been. We have always believed that Pike River is a crime scene, and that a proper investigation would have come to that conclusion. Blue ...1 week ago
- Re: The Call For Corporate Manslaughter LegislationThis matter begins with the Pike River investigation being inadequate, inexplicably lengthy, and after millions of dollars, the evidence that should have been placed before the public still has not been. We have always believed that Pike River is a crime scene, and that a proper investigation would have come to that conclusion. Blue ...1 week ago
- Release: Labour releases New Zealand’s first climate manifestoNew Zealand faces a stark choice this election – vote for Labour to continue to confront the climate emergency with eyes wide open or bury your head in the sand alongside Christopher Luxon. ...1 week ago
- Green voice crucial for climate actionThe Green Party is today welcoming Labour’s climate manifesto, but is clear that much more will need to be done to tackle the climate crisis. ...1 week ago
- Speech: Chris Hipkins – Wellington Rally, 24 September...1 week ago
- People need a government that will build many more homesLabour’s plan to build more homes is a welcome step forward, but it lacks ambition. ...1 week ago
- Release: Supercharging public housingLabour is supercharging its plan to solve the public housing shortfall created by National, promising another 6,000 homes on top of what has already been committed says Labour Housing spokesperson Dr Megan Woods. ...1 week ago
- Release: New Super Visa for migrants’ parents and rights for Dawn Raid victimsLabour will back migrant working families by introducing a 10-year multiple-entry parents’ and grandparents’ Super Visa, and make good on the Dawn Raids apology by providing a one-off visa for overstayers who have been in the country ten years or more, Labour’s Immigration Spokesperson Andrew Little says. ...1 week ago
- Only the Greens will deliver a fair amnesty for overstayersThe Green Party is today welcoming Labour coming to the table to ensure an amnesty for overstayers, but only the Greens will ensure immigration settings actually reflect the reality of people who have been failed by our immigration system. ...2 weeks ago
- Climate future of communities on the line this electionGreen Party co leader James Shaw attended a South Dunedin Future street meeting today to discuss local responses to climate change. ...2 weeks ago
- Green Party calls for stronger action by Auckland Council to protect urban trees and native forestThe Green Party is calling on Auckland Council to do more to protect urban trees and housing developer Aedifice Property Group to restore and replant the native forest it cleared, and protect all the remaining trees on Ngahere Road in Pukekohe after a significant number of native trees were cut ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Ram Raids drop to two-year lowLatest Police data shows monthly ram raids have hit a two-year low, laying waste to Christopher Luxon’s false claim that there are two ram raids a day says Labour’s Police Spokesperson Ginny Andersen. ...2 weeks ago
- Every party needs to step up on school lunchesLabour has finally said it would continue free school lunches - and the Green Party is calling on every party to step up. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: School lunches on the line this electionFree and healthy school lunches will be here to stay if Labour is re-elected, guaranteeing food for our kids who need it most and significant cost saving for parents. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour commits to a new hospital for the people of Hawke’s BayThe next Labour Government will build a new hospital in Hawke’s Bay, Labour leader Chris Hipkins and Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall announced. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt changes fall short of what’s needed for migrant protectionThe Green Party will keep up the fight to support exploited migrant workers, including pushing to end single employer visas, after the government picked up Green recommendations to improve immigration settings. ...2 weeks ago
- Clean Power Payment the smartest way forward to reduce emissions and billsGreen Party co leader James Shaw visited a home in Auckland today that has been upgraded with a wide range of energy improvements, similar to those that would be supported through the Green Party’s Clean Power Payment. ...2 weeks ago
- Foreign Minister's Action – A Contempt For “Caretaker Government” ConventionThe Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta’s presence in New York today at the United Nations General Assembly is a contempt of New Zealand’s “caretaker government” convention. Despite the long-standing caretaker convention, Minister Mahuta is today at the UN to sign a highly contentious “Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) Agreement”, delivering a ...2 weeks ago
- Back To Black ResponsiblyThe Pre-Election Fiscal Update Changes Everything Within an hour of this speech there is going to be a debate between the political parties that the media, under MMP, still think are the only parties that matter in this campaign. Both of those parties are riddled with inexperience, as evidenced by ...2 weeks ago
- Stop the cuts before they start – Labour launches new TV adNational and ACT's tax plans don't add up, and that means deep cuts to the public services New Zealanders rely on, says Labour Campaign Chair Megan Woods. ...2 weeks ago
- Youth justice programme expands to break cycle of offending
The successful ‘Circuit Breaker’ fast track programme designed to stop repeat youth offending was launched in two new locations today by Children’s Minister Kelvin Davis. The programme, first piloted in West and South Auckland in December last year, is aimed at children aged 10-13 who commit serious offending or continue ...16 hours ago - Major milestone with 20,000 employers using Apprenticeship BoostThe Government’s Apprenticeship Boost initiative has now supported 20,000 employers to help keep on and train up apprentices, Minister for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni announced in Christchurch today. Almost 62,000 apprentices have been supported to start and keep training for a trade since the initiative was introduced in ...18 hours ago
- Government supporting wood processing jobs and more diverse industryThe Government is supporting non-pine tree sawmilling and backing further job creation in sawmills in Rotorua and Whangarei, Forestry Minister Peeni Henare said. “The Forestry and Wood Processing Industry Transformation Plan identified the need to add more diversity to our productions forests, wood products and markets,” Peeni Henare said. ...19 hours ago
- Government backing Canterbury’s future in aerospace industryThe Government is helping Canterbury’s aerospace industry take off with further infrastructure support for the Tāwhaki Aerospace Centre at Kaitorete, Infrastructure Minister Dr Megan Woods has announced. “Today I can confirm we will provide a $5.4 million grant to the Tāwhaki Joint Venture to fund a sealed runway and hangar ...19 hours ago
- Updated forestry regulations increase council controls and require large slash removalLocal councils will have more power to decide where new commercial forests – including carbon forests – are located, to reduce impacts on communities and the environment, Environment Minister David Parker said today. “New national standards give councils greater control over commercial forestry, including clear rules on harvesting practices and ...21 hours ago
- New Zealand resumes peacekeeping force leadershipNew Zealand will again contribute to the leadership of the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) in the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt, with a senior New Zealand Defence Force officer returning as Interim Force Commander. Defence Minister Andrew Little and Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta have announced the deployment of New Zealand ...2 days ago
- New national direction provides clarity for development and the environmentThe Government has taken an important step in implementing the new resource management system, by issuing a draft National Planning Framework (NPF) document under the new legislation, Environment Minister David Parker said today. “The NPF consolidates existing national direction, bringing together around 20 existing instruments including policy statements, standards, and ...2 days ago
- Government shows further commitment to pay equity for healthcare workersThe Government welcomes the proposed pay equity settlement that will see significant pay increases for around 18,000 Te Whatu Ora Allied, Scientific, and Technical employees, if accepted said Health Minister Ayesha Verrall. The proposal reached between Te Whatu Ora, the New Zealand Public Service Association Te Pūkenga Here Tikanga Mahi ...2 days ago
- 100 new public EV chargers to be added to national networkThe public EV charging network has received a significant boost with government co-funding announced today for over 100 EV chargers – with over 200 charging ports altogether – across New Zealand, and many planned to be up and running on key holiday routes by Christmas this year. Minister of Energy ...3 days ago
- Safeguarding Tuvalu language and identityTuvalu is in the spotlight this week as communities across New Zealand celebrate Vaiaso o te Gagana Tuvalu – Tuvalu Language Week. “The Government has a proven record of supporting Pacific communities and ensuring more of our languages are spoken, heard and celebrated,” Pacific Peoples Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Many ...3 days ago
- New community-level energy projects to support more than 800 Māori householdsSeven more innovative community-scale energy projects will receive government funding through the Māori and Public Housing Renewable Energy Fund to bring more affordable, locally generated clean energy to more than 800 Māori households, Energy and Resources Minister Dr Megan Woods says. “We’ve already funded 42 small-scale clean energy projects that ...6 days ago
- Huge boost to Te Tai Tokerau flood resilienceThe Government has approved new funding that will boost resilience and greatly reduce the risk of major flood damage across Te Tai Tokerau. Significant weather events this year caused severe flooding and damage across the region. The $8.9m will be used to provide some of the smaller communities and maraes ...6 days ago
- Napier’s largest public housing development comes with solarThe largest public housing development in Napier for many years has been recently completed and has the added benefit of innovative solar technology, thanks to Government programmes, says Housing Minister Dr Megan Woods. The 24 warm, dry homes are in Seddon Crescent, Marewa and Megan Woods says the whanau living ...7 days ago
- Te Whānau a Apanui and the Crown initial Deed of Settlement I Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me...Māori: Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna te Whakaaetanga Whakataunga Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna i tētahi Whakaaetanga Whakataunga hei whakamihi i ō rātou tāhuhu kerēme Tiriti o Waitangi. E tekau mā rua ngā hapū o roto mai o Te Whānau ...1 week ago
- Plan for 3,000 more public homes by 2025 – regions set to benefitRegions around the country will get significant boosts of public housing in the next two years, as outlined in the latest public housing plan update, released by the Housing Minister, Dr Megan Woods. “We’re delivering the most public homes each year since the Nash government of the 1950s with one ...1 week ago
- Immigration settings updatesJudicial warrant process for out-of-hours compliance visits 2023/24 Recognised Seasonal Employer cap increased by 500 Additional roles for Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement More roles added to Green List Three-month extension for onshore Recovery Visa holders The Government has confirmed a number of updates to immigration settings as part of ...2 weeks ago
- Poroporoaki: Tā Patrick (Patu) Wahanga HohepaTangi ngunguru ana ngā tai ki te wahapū o Hokianga Whakapau Karakia. Tārehu ana ngā pae maunga ki Te Puna o te Ao Marama. Korihi tangi ana ngā manu, kua hinga he kauri nui ki te Wao Nui o Tāne. He Toa. He Pou. He Ahorangi. E papaki tū ana ...2 weeks ago
- Renewable energy fund to support community resilience40 solar energy systems on community buildings in regions affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events Virtual capability-building hub to support community organisations get projects off the ground Boost for community-level renewable energy projects across the country At least 40 community buildings used to support the emergency response ...2 weeks ago
- COVID-19 funding returned to GovernmentThe lifting of COVID-19 isolation and mask mandates in August has resulted in a return of almost $50m in savings and recovered contingencies, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Following the revocation of mandates and isolation, specialised COVID-19 telehealth and alternative isolation accommodation are among the operational elements ...2 weeks ago
- Appointment of District Court JudgeSusie Houghton of Auckland has been appointed as a new District Court Judge, to serve on the Family Court, Attorney-General David Parker said today. Judge Houghton has acted as a lawyer for child for more than 20 years. She has acted on matters relating to the Hague Convention, an international ...2 weeks ago
- Government invests further in Central Hawke’s Bay resilienceThe Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...2 weeks ago
- Govt boost for Hawke’s Bay cyclone waste clean-upAnother $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...2 weeks ago
- Taupō Supercars revs up with Government supportThe future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...2 weeks ago
- There is no recession in NZ, economy grows nearly 1 percent in June quarterThe economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...2 weeks ago
- Highest legal protection for New Zealand’s largest freshwater springsThe Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today. “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...2 weeks ago
- More support for victims of migrant exploitationTemporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...2 weeks ago
- Strong export boost as NZ economy turns cornerAn export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...2 weeks ago
- Funding approved for flood resilience work in Te KarakaThe Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...2 weeks ago
- Further business support for cyclone-affected regionsThe Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...2 weeks ago
- New maintenance facility at Burnham Military Camp underwayDefence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...2 weeks ago
- Foreign Minister to attend United Nations General AssemblyForeign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...2 weeks ago
- Midwives’ pay equity offer reachedAround 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...3 weeks ago
- New Zealand provides support to MoroccoAotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...3 weeks ago
- Government invests in West Coast’s roading resilienceThe Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...3 weeks ago
- What Act will use its 'stronger brew' to do
Seymour says Act will be National’s 'economic conscience' ...1 hour ago - Vaping promises up in smoke
Vaping rates, particularly among young people, have rapidly risen. Our political parties are starting to take notice, but the next government must turn proposals into policies Opinion: I knew the message about problem vaping was getting out there when the latest National Party election flyer appeared in my letterbox last week. It ...1 hour ago - Bishop may just knock over the Minister in Hutt South
Although Labour's Ginny Andersen looks set to hold her seat, it could be tight ...1 hour ago - Disability is this year's forgotten issue
Advocates say disability issues are at a "crossroads of regress" with neglect from political parties caught up in electioneering This election cycle, burning issues such as climate change, housing and migration have taken a back seat to the new hot topics of crime and the cost of living. But ...1 hour ago - Debates pull in audience despite TV decline
New polling shows televised leaders’ debates are still reaching many eligible voters despite the decline in those watching linear television A Talbot Mills Research poll seen by Newsroom reveals just under 40 percent of eligible voters watched some or all of the first two leaders’ debates. TVNZ’s 90-minute debate on September ...1 hour ago - Bola and badass gullies: the science of East Coast erosion
Scientist Mike Marden has spent decades researching the East Coast's erosion and knows the local soils like few others – and he also knows things have to change. Aaron Smale continues a series on the slow destruction of Tairāwhiti. Everywhere he looks he can see the risks and vulnerability in the landscape. ...1 hour ago - Politicians' fear of asking for sacrifices comes at a price
This is the dancing Cossacks election of a new era. But we'll pay later. ...1 hour ago - Defining issues: 'I don’t think we have a rural divide, I really don't' – dairy f...
From the big city to the farm, we measure the rural-urban divide ...1 hour ago - Daily crossword, Wednesday 4 October
...1 hour ago - The rock stars have arrived
The one about the house where a Prime Minister supposedly locked his deranged son in the basement 212 The Terrace, Wellington! Nowadays it just looks like any of the big white wooden colonial piles next to each other on The Terrace, that long, anxious nerve centre of central Wellington ...1 hour ago - Rolling back the red wave in Whangārei: 'I've got the strongest ground game'
In a seat where we expect the unexpected, Dr Shane Reti is quietly confident: 'I've got the strongest ground game' ...1 hour ago - Bought out and sold down the river
The government subsidised pine on the East Coast for nearly 30 years, huge tracts of which ended up in the hands of foreign companies known for environmental damage ...1 hour ago - Newsroom daily quiz, Wednesday 4 October
Loading...(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[quiz],DIV[quiz],A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. ...2 hours ago - Even platypuses aren’t safe from bushfires – a new DNA study tracks their disappearance
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emily McColl-Gausden, Research fellow, The University of Melbourne When the Black Summer bushfires swept across eastern Australia in 2019–20, thousands of animal species lived in the path of these megafires. You’d be forgiven for thinking water-dwelling animals like platypuses were spared. ...5 hours ago - France to host Pacific defence ministers in New Caledonia ‘hub’ meetingBy Patrick Decloitre, RNZ French Pacific correspondent Defence ministers from several Asian and Pacific states are scheduled to meet in New Caledonia for two days during the first week of December, French Armed Forces in New Caledonia (FANC) commander General Yann Latil announced at the weekend. He added that French ...8 hours ago
- NEW POLL: Statistical Tie Between National And ACT In Race For Tāmaki
A new Taxpayers Union – Curia poll in the Tāmaki electorate shows ACT’s Brooke van Velden mounting a strong challenge to incumbent National MP, Simon O’Connor. The two major candidates for the seat are locked in a statistical tie with 35% of ...8 hours ago - Labour-friendly turf Christchurch throws up some testy exchanges for Carmel Sepuloni
The Cabinet Minister was challenged on her party's record on crime, the cost of living, veterans and beneficiaries during a visit to territory normally considered a Labour heartland. ...9 hours ago - Australia’s emissions must decline more steeply to reach climate commitment: OECDSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Australia’s emissions need to decline “on a much steeper trajectory” if it is to meet its declared commitment of a 43% reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and ...9 hours ago
- Tāmaki Is Ready For A Fresh New Voice“Tonight at the Taxpayer’s Union Tāmaki debate I put forward to voters why I should be the next advocate for their community in Parliament,” says ACT Deputy Leader and Tāmaki candidate Brooke van Velden. “After 63 years being represented ...9 hours ago
- Against All Odds In Hauraki-WaikatoThe youngest candidate in this year’s election is closing in on the Labour stronghold of Hauraki-Waikato. A Whakaata Māori exclusive poll has revealed that Te Pāti Māori newcomer, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, is just four percentage points behind Labour’s ...9 hours ago
- General election 2023: Nanaia Mahuta facing serious challenge in Hauraki-Waikato, poll showsThe incumbent MP is just four points ahead of one of the youngest candidates in this year's general election, a poll conducted for Whakaata Māori is revealing. ...10 hours ago
- ACT's Brooke van Velden turns up heat on Simon O'Connor in new pollThe ACT party candidate is locked in a statistical tie with the incumbent in the previously safe National seat of Tāmaki, a new Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll reveals. ...11 hours ago
- Simon O’Connor vs Brooke van Velden will go to wire in Tāmaki – new poll
Following a poll last week which depicted Chlöe Swarbrick in a battle to hold on to Auckland Central, another seat in the city has been confirmed as balanced on a knife edge. In a battle among the parties of the right in Tāmaki, sitting MP Simon O’Connor leads Brooke van ...11 hours ago - No rate hike yet, but will it rise on Melbourne Cup Day? It all depends on petrol pricesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University If the Reserve Bank does push up interest rates again, the most likely next date is its next board meeting, on Melbourne Cup Tuesday. The November 7 meeting is especially ...12 hours ago
- The disability royal commission heard horrific stories of harm – now we must move towards repairSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack Francis Kelly, Honorary Research Fellow, School of the Built Environment, University of Technology Sydney The Royal Commission into Violence, Abuse, Neglect and Exploitation of People with Disability has shared its final report. In this series, we unpack what the commission’s 222 ...12 hours ago
- My Sister Jill: Patricia Cornelius’ new play is a blistering post-war social and cultural commenta...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Austin, Lecturer in Theatre, The University of Melbourne Sarah Walker/MTC Emerging from one of Australia’s most enduring and significant theatrical partnerships between director Susie Dee and playwright Patricia Cornelius, My Sister Jill is a contemporary homage to George Johnston’s ...12 hours ago
- ‘I voted’ stickers not offered this election due to lack of demand – ECThere’s been a strong outpouring on social media after it emerged that polling booths wouldn’t be handing out the orange man “I voted” stickers during this year’s election. And while many have claimed this to be a new decision, the Electoral Commission told The Spinoff the stickers weren’t actually given ...13 hours ago
- Politicians Need To Break R&D Funding Election Cycle For Science To ThriveBioTechNZ has called on the next Government to leverage the use of biotechnology to transform the economy, lift the performance of New Zealand industries, and create high-value jobs. The organisation, whose members all share a desire to maximise the ...14 hours ago
- National Party Statement On Prostate Cancer WelcomedMore than 4000 men are diagnosed and over 700 die from prostate cancer every year. That’s more than twice the road toll. Men’s lives matter too. The Prostate Cancer Foundation today welcomed statements by the National Party relating to prostate cancer ...14 hours ago
- We started a service for people worried about their sexual thoughts about children. Here’s what we...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gemma McKibbin, Senior Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne Shutterstock In its 2017 final report, the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse identified that there was no large-scale national early intervention service in Australia for people worried ...14 hours ago
- Large slash must now be removed after harvesting, new forestry regulations sayCyclone Gabrielle highlighted the need for better regulations on forestry, after woody debris was washed into waterways and caused widespread damage and flooding. ...14 hours ago
- Voice support up in Essential poll, but it is still behindSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne The referendum on the Indigenous Voice to parliament will be held on October 14. A national Essential poll, conducted September 27 to ...14 hours ago
- Election 2023: National 'mischief making' over claims Ingrid Leary backs wealth tax –...The Labour leader is downplaying comments by his MP, Ingrid Leary, who has spoken in favour of a wealth tax. ...14 hours ago
- Time For Aotearoa NZ To Stop Investing In Infrastructure For YesterdayTime to invest in infrastructure for a modern, flourishing, resilient tomorrow. The New Zealand Federation of Multicultural Councils hosted its 34th AGM and Community Awards Dinner on the weekend of the 16th – 17th September 2023 in Wellington. Twenty-four ...14 hours ago
- More than 50,000 people cast ballot on first day of advance votingThe first day of advance voting yesterday saw 56,557 people cast their ballots, according to the Electoral Commission. That’s a big drop on day one of advance voting in 2020, when 92,434 people took part. Given the exceptional, Covid-impacted circumstances of the last election, however, a more instructive comparison may ...15 hours ago
- Climate debate puts parties' emissions policies under scrutinyWith New Zealand on track to fall 114 million tonnes short of the 2030 emissions reduction target, and billions of dollars likely needed to pay for it, political parties have debated their climate policies. ...15 hours ago
- Climate debate puts parties' emissions policies under scrutinyWith New Zealand on track to fall 114 million tonnes short of the 2030 emissions reduction target, and billions of dollars likely needed to pay for it, political parties have debated their climate policies. ...15 hours ago
- ACT unveils medicines policy including one-week approvalsACT is promising to require one-week Medsafe approvals for drugs and medical devices approved by at least two similar countries. ...15 hours ago
- Gambling with Covid: Repeat infections are damaging usThe science is clear, the effects are profound and the toll of Long Covid and reinfections can’t be ignored, writes Freya Sawbridge. On August 15, mandates ceased for masks in healthcare settings along with isolation for positive cases. That marked the end of the final two pandemic restrictions. Anyone wanting to ...16 hours ago
- West Papua’s human rights issues under spotlight for Jubi film launchJubi News in Jayapura Director Latifah Anum Siregar of the Democracy Alliance for Papua (ALDP) has emphasised the importance of raising awareness about human rights violations in Papua during a discussion at the launch of five Jubi Documentary films. The event took place at the St. Nicholaus Ambassador of Peace ...16 hours ago
- New Zealand First Policy Announcement: Parliamentary Conscience Votes· New Zealand First will put an end to the use of conscience votes in parliament and return democracy to the people. · New Zealand First has always believed that important decisions that change the social fabric of our country forever should not ...17 hours ago
- Holes in baby dinosaur bones show how football-sized hatchlings grew to 3-tonne teensSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roger S. Seymour, Professor Emeritus of Physiology, University of Adelaide Shutterstock Despite their public image as torpid, lumbering creatures, many dinosaurs were evidently warm-blooded, highly active animals, capable of prolonged and strenuous aerobic exercise. In new research, my colleagues ...17 hours ago
- Israel Adesanya is still fighting past demonsMike Minogue watched the new documentary on Israel Adesanya and recognised how hard it is to leave bullies behind. It would have been an entirely satisfactory piece of work. Imagine a documentary that unfolds with behind the scenes footage of the once unknown subject’s journey from utter obscurity, all the ...17 hours ago
- Corporate Welfare For Wood Processing Leaves Taxpayers’ Union StumpedThe Taxpayers’ Union is questioning the Government’s decision to provide corporate welfare to the wood processing sector, both in the form of direct hand-outs and the Government playing bank manager by providing loans when this could easily be left ...17 hours ago
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Is anyone actually pushing the idea that Robertson should stand aside for Shaw in a similar way to how a few arithmetically-challenged people are shouting for Labour to stand aside for Swarbrick? If they are, I haven't seen it.
(to the reading-comprehension-challenged: Yes, I've suggested Wellie Central is the only electorate where Labour might be able to successfully gift the Greens an electorate lifeboat if Labour and Greens both pushed for it. That's not the same as pushing for actually trying to make it happen)
.
Wellington Central (2017)
Party Vote
Lab … 16500 … 38.3%
Green .. 9198 … 21.3%
(L+G ….. 25698 … 59.6%)
Nat …… 13156 … 30.5%
TOP ……. 2538 ….. 5.9%
NZF ……… 972 …… 2.3%
.
Candidate Vote
Lab (Robertson) 20873 … 49.3%
Green (Shaw) ….. 6520 … 15.4%
(L+G ………………. 27393 ….. 64.7%)
Nat (Willis) ……. 10910 ….. 25.8%
.
Robertson (Lab) Majority: 9963
.
Split Vote
Party-Vote …….. Candidate-Vote
Labour …. 77.5% Robertson / 14.6% Shaw / 1.6% Willis
Green ….. 58.6% Robertson / 33.2% Shaw / 1.0% Willis
National …. 11.8% Robertson / 4.9% Shaw / 75.7% Willis
Top …….. 23.7% Robertson / 10.4% Shaw / 6.8% Willis
NZF …… 35.1% Robertson / 4.3% Shaw / 16.6% Willis
That's a gobsmackingly high number of Nat party-voters voting for Robertson, and exceptionally low number voting for Willis.
It's one of the things I like about MMP. If you have a good local politician who does a good job on the ground then you can vote for them regardless of the party they belong to.
You can then vote for the party you might like to govern.
It's a much, much better system than we had in the past.
Yeah.
I just wish we had a much lower threshold to get a seat in Parliament. Like 0.83%, so if you can get more than 1 in 120 citizens to vote for your party, your party gets 1/120 of the total representation in the House. Then all these electorate shenanigans would be moot.
Aye if we are going to have 120 seats then a direct ration of votes to seats would be most appropriate.
On the other hand I would have 60 Maori seats and 60 non-Maori seats in order to have equal authority (partnership) between Maori and those who followed. It would be great to see direct representation of iwi up and down the country in parliament.
I wouldn't say that … it's fairly typical of the National Party-Voter split in seats with popular / high-profile Labour incumbents. Indeed, if anything it’s slightly at the lower end … often 14-24% of Nats Candidate-Voting Labour in such electorates (as opposed to 12% in Wellington Central).
Gotta admit, I was scratching my head a bit trying to think of popular high profile Labour incumbents beyond Ardern, Robertson and Hipkins. So I resorted to looking at the split-vote statistics for any other Labour bigwigs that got a decent chunk of Nat party votes, and only found … Lees-Galloway.
Apart from Ardern who got 25% of Nat party voters (against Melissa Lee, no surprise) the other 3 got mid-teens of Nat party voters. Typical isn't the word I'd use in describing what happened in 4 out of 29 electorates, but YMMV.
You
Me
You
.
My Response
Seats where more than 11.8% of Nat Party-Voters cast a Candidate-Vote for Labour incumbent.
10 General Seats & 6 Maori Seats
Te Tai Tokerau (Davis) 31.9%
Hauraki-Waikato (Mahuta) 26.7%
Mt Albert (Ardern) 24.9%
Waiariki (Coffey) 19.3%
Napier (Nash) 18.3%
Mana (Faafoi) 18.1%
Mt Roskill (Wood) 18.0%
Rimutaka (Hipkins) 16.4%
Port Hills (Dyson) 16.3%
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti (Whaitiri) 15.8%
Palmerston North (Lees-Galloway) 15.4%
West Coast-Tasman (O'Connor) 14.5%
Rongotai (Eagle) 13.4%
Tāmaki Makaurau (Henare) 12.8%
Manukau East (Salesa) 12.8%
Te Tai Tonga (Tirikatene) 12.5%
———————————————————————–
Seats where just under 11.8% of Nat Party-Voters cast a Candidate-Vote for Labour incumbent
6 General Seats & 1 Maori Seat
Wigram (Woods) 11.5%
Mangere (Sio) 10.5%
Te Tai Hauāuru (Rurawhe) 10.3%
Dunedin South (Curran) 10.3%
Dunedin North (Clark) 10.2%
Christchurch East (Williams) 9.7%
Ohariu (O'Connor) 9.5%
So not "4 out of 29" … but rather 16 out of 29 Labour MPs enjoy support from Nat Party-Voters above Wellington Central's 11.8% … and 23 out of 29 above 9% … hence 11.8% is not "a gobsmackingly high number of Nat party-voters” voting for a Labour Incumbent.
Surely this is more notable?
Yep … it stands out, dosn't it … but I got diverted
Baited 🙂
I am not worthy to grovel at the altar of your encyclopedic knowledge of New Zealand polling and vote counts, and your pedantry in proving your superiority on that topic.
LOL
Pays to avoid superlatives like 'gobsmackingly' unless you are sure about it.
There's at least two possible interpretations of how "gobsmackingly" was used in my original context. I got baited into trying (and failing) to defend one of them, when my original intent kinda leant more towards the other. That I found it gobsmacking that given a core Nat value is looking after one's own self-interest, that so many Nat party voters would give their electorate vote to a senior member of the biggest opposing party.
Such altruism, as expressed by Nat voters, ought to inspire folks. One could not hope to find better evidence of left/right collusion to defend the establishment against the dire prospect of progress. 🤮
Labour hubris currently makes the notion unrealistic. However if the next poll show that JC has pulled National back into the 40s, and Labour down into the 40s, there's a realistic basis for the Greens to do a deal with Labour if the Greens are still hovering around the threshold.
If the poll after that shows the Nat/Lab gap narrowing further, it would be a danger signal for Labour, particularly if the margin of error is approached by the gap.
Trading Ak central to Labour and Wn central to James then looks sensible for Jacinda in that tight scenario, to secure her second term as PM. It would be a gamble to not do it. That said, I don't see the Nats closing the gap that much…
Any time people talk about electorate deals they should clarify which of these they mean:
1) Candidate not on the ballot.
2) Candidate on the ballot, but supporters "encouraged" not to vote for them.
Because there's a huge difference. The second one wastes thousands of votes, and in most of these fantasy deals there aren't thousands of votes to waste.
In short: Epsom is an exception. Not an example.
Very true. I suspect they'd default to #2 without hesitation. How much wisdom lies in doing so I'm not qualified to comment on!
But the electorate accepts Epsom as an established parliamentary convention, right? So replicating that model is easily conceived. Remember that all the cynicism around it was mostly leftist projecting, which bounces off realpolitik like river water off a boulder in the rapids…
Only if the Greens get 0.50% of the total nationwide vote (i.e. 13,075 votes across the whole of NZ) and gifted a seat by Labour does it approach the perverted situation in Epsom. Until that time, it is not even close to being equivalent and comparing the two as such is straight-up #theydidtoo BS, IMO. That said, Labour and the Green Party should campaign hard for each vote unlike those bludgers Seymour and Goldsmith.
Replicating that model means that even if the candidate from the "gifting" party wins over 10,000 unwanted votes, s/he will still successfully (sic) lose to the candidate who has been "gifted" the seat.
Nothing to do with "leftist projecting", whatever that means. Only basic arithmetic.
I wonder why you're suggesting that the same "basic arithmetic" that works for National cannot work for Labour. I realise it may not be your intention, but I can't see any other explanation.
By "leftist projecting" I meant what Incognito calls "straight-up #theydidtoo BS". Projection is a common diagnostic part of Jungian psychology. Leftists project their moral judgments onto others in the naive belief that others will share them (rather than asking the others). 🙄
Instead of "wondering" why not find out? Read up on all the Labour electorates and make a list of all those where the "left" vote is as high as Epsom's "right" vote AND the Greens already have a significant vote for their candidate, as Hide did before he took the seat in 2005. It will be a very short list. Then you might finally get the point.
Wellington Central is being discussed on this post because it is theoretically possible. But Grant Robertson is not Richard Worth – hence my comment about a candidate not being on the ballot paper (at 3.1).
Repeat: basic arithmetic.
No, Dennis, that’s inaccurate, to say the least: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection
But I realise this is going off-topic and I can’t be bothered discussing your ‘view’ of psychology with you here & now.
One big difference between Epsom and Wellie Central is in 2017, ACT got 696 votes in Epsom, and the Greens got 9198 votes in WC.
So in very crude terms, to gift Epsom to Seymour requires at least 50%ish of Epsom Nats to
follow ordersvote in their strategic interest. Giving Shaw an electorate lifeboat would only need around 35%ish of WC Labour voters to do the same.Party votes, sure.
But Epsom has a long history of the ACT candidate doing well
before Hide took it from Worth (who did not want to lose it at all), and then became the official Nat-approved candidate later. The basic lesson here is that "gifting" is not about flicking a switch overnight, as some commentators seem to believe.
In Ohariu, in 2017, Brett Hudson seems to have earned a high(er) place on National's list in return for downplaying his efforts in order to benefit Peter Dunne. Dunne withdrew but Hudson retained his place on the list and made his way into parliament.
The Green Party's Tane Woodley stood aside to help Labour's Greg O'Connor defeat Dunne but, after the latter withdrew, Woodley returned to the fray. O'Connor won anyway.
It is interesting to speculate what may have happened had there been no Opportunities Party. Jessica Hammond-Doube came third and the final result could well have been much closer had she not been in the race
Bollocks idea with no merit. Be true to your vote.
Which is precisely what Judith Collins would say should happen if Robertson didn't stand and Shaw won Wellington Central, except in Epsom.
I enjoyed the analysis but was dismayed at the personal attacks on other left wingers at the start. I'm really looking forward to the day when this stuff dissapears.
Well, historically, I'm known here at TS for my sweet disposition and zen like calm, Aaron. However, I do call it as I see it.
Bomber, in particular, for describing the outstanding Labour candidate Helen White as "wallpaper" and a "nobody" needs to take a good, hard look at himself.
I loved your post. It was wicked in so many ways!
Cheers, Incognito!
I was tempted to make the following comment earlier but decided to pass until I saw your comment:
If trp's historical record is a demonstration of his zen like calm, I hate to think what he is like when he's really riled up. 😮 😛
Yep, there’s never a spare sarc tag lying around when I need one, Anne 😉
TRP…agreed…Bomber is often good but at times he goes off the rails. My understanding is that White is a respected lawyer who has worked hard for the Labour Party and unions over many years. She polled well in 2017.
Having said that, I think Swarbrick has a good chance in AC now Kaye has decided she can't stomach working for Crusher and will not defend the seat.
Swarbrick has massive name recognition especially in Akl.
She is and does. I briefly did some electorate work with her in the late 90s or early 00s when she was in Sandringham branch. From memory she was either still doing her law degree or our doing professionals at the time. Her work, like that of everyone with a work life goes up and down with the time available.
Thoroughly nice, focused and very competent person. If I lived on the other side of Newton Road, I'd be voting for her without hesitation.
For that matter, if I was on the other ridgeline of Newton Gully, I'd be voting for Camilla Belich. Don't know her personally. But she has a good reputation and has been pretty active since she and Andrew Kirton got back from overseas.
However since the boundary changes two elections ago, I'm now on the very edge of Mt Albert electorate. So I have managed to vote for Jacinda Arden since 2011. I can live with that… 🙂
This all starts to smack of desperation … present polling shows Labour able to rule alone but with both NZ First and Greens polling low we are prepared to consider any "Tory" ploy to ensure a coalition partner. Should the Nats; ACT and Labour remain the only parties past the threshold after the voting… there may be some concern. But are the Greens so uncertain of reaching the 5% threshold do they deserve "saving" at the expense of the chance of ruling alone ???
I do despair!
The title of the OP contains a question mark, yes?
You realise not everything is meant to be taken literally necessarily, yes?
The piece is aimed at stimulating (provoking) thinking and debate, yes?
We’re on the same page now, yes?
Thank you!
Maurice….how about this result. It would mean (assuming Swarbrick does not win Akl Central, that Jones does not win Northland and that the MP does not win any seats) that Crusher would be PM.
Lab 44.0
Gre 4.8
NZF 4.0
Nat 39.0
Act 5.7
Wasted 2.5
That is the danger of MMP
… and we set the precedent last election.
The Game is afoot
Do you think that the Green Party Candidates could win a seat without a Labour Candidate having to step aside?
And if so, does that Green Party Candidate then merit the win?
Or is this like everyone wins here have a gummi bear. 🙂
I’d have posted this earlier, had I had access to my computer… but… also no, and for the exact same reasons. The Greens don't need or want a charity seat from Labour, it will look bad to voters, and if you want to end splitting in Welly Central so people can more freely vote for Shaw, then we should implement an electoral reform where all of our electorates are "immune to clones," ie. there is neither an advantage nor disadvantage to additional candidates entering the race.
Grand Strategy:
Labour and the Greens should fight each other bitterly in National electorates, so that the sitting Nat MPs win. That would mean their diminished caucus is filled with useless incumbents, instead of new blood from the list.
Here for the long term plan …
There appears to be many here suggesting Labour fall on their swords to let the Greens have a place at the political table. The question really is why, when they only represent perhaps 5% of voters in NZ. If they can't win on their own merits, then perhaps they shouldn't be in parliament.
The Greens have been steadily heading south since they sold their "green credentials" for more hardline Marxist pursuits. Labour are viewed as moderate left, and therefore more palatable to the wider population.
silly policies like the rich tax which effectively guts middle class NZ just turns people away. Hell, how many of us living in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch have a house whose value has punched the One Million mark who are only regular income earners, and far from being rich…..
or other nonsense policies like giving prisoners the right to vote. After only gaining half their wish in parliament , the Greens announce a legal challenge so ALL prisoners can vote. Hmmm, do we really want to give voting rights to a guy who murdered 50 people, attempted to murder another 40 or so, and who also committed an act of terrorism in NZ.
I think when Winston walks from parliament this election, perhaps he could be so kind to hold the door open for the Greens to exit likewise.