POST ‘SUPER TUESDAY’ THOUGHTS. I find it amusing that I just got two messages from respected pundits. One claims Bernie really ‘won’ and argues a neat line of speculation. The other that Bernie should hang it up today and surrender to the ‘Third Way’ Clintonistas.
As you might expect, I have a different take.
First, the future is open. Lots can happen, even in weeks or a month. Just keep in mind that the Clinton history has lots of problems a gentleman wouldn’t dig into, but Trump is no gentleman. And yes, I know quite well that Bernie has always been the long shot. But as my late Dad, a friend of the ponies who did well with them, was know to quip: Don’t ignore the long shots. Now and then, they will come in.’
Second, I have no intention of surrendering to Clinton and the ‘Third Way’ platform of crumbs and incrementalism, even though I would vote for her over Trump in a heartbeat. People who engage in long battles with just one eye open on half the battlefield will find themselves in trouble or irrelevant. Here’s one thing to keep in mind, Save for Massachusetts, all the states Hillary won in last night are likely going GOP in the Electoral College. It’s long been a complaint of Blacks in the South that their votes only have weight in one primary, not the general, ever since the Dixiecrats moved to the GOP, which then became the new party of the ‘Solid South.’
Third, I like to view elections as organizing opportunities rather than horse races. For that perspective, your forces can win even if your candidate doesn’t make it. You simply use all the activity to increase your strength to end with something greater than you started with, a notion that’s not original with me, but comes from a master campaign manager named Lenin.
Finally, the conventional wisdom holds that Bernie is the weaker candidate vs Trump because of ‘socialism.’ I turn that around. Bernie’s honesty about what he is and what he stands for is his strength, and it’s all an open book. Clinton, on the other hand, does indeed have scads of experience, but it’s also like an iceberg, most of it is unseen, and who knows what might pop up.
It ain’t over till it’s over folks. It’s going to be a bumpy ride. Keep your eyes on the prizes–no Trump/Cruz./Rubio White House, and a much stronger and better organized socialist left. As Jean-Luc Picard would say, ‘Make it so, engage!’
Speaking of Clinton’s history, this doesn’t look good:
The Justice Department has granted immunity to a former State Department staffer, who worked on Hillary Clinton’s private email server, as part of a criminal investigation into the possible mishandling of classified information, according to a senior law enforcement official.
The official said the FBI had secured the cooperation of Bryan Pagliano, who worked on Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign before setting up the server in her New York home in 2009…
The Clinton campaign has described the probe as a security review. But current and former officials in the FBI and at the Justice Department have said investigators are trying to determine whether a crime was committed.
The FBI can investigate all they like but on the eve of a once in a generation opportunity to influence the judiciary the Obama justice department ain’t going to indict.
joe90
There doesn’t have to be an indictment for Clinton’s campaign to be concerned about what Pagliano information coughed up to get personal immunity. Also; when it comes to raking Trump over the coals about his “Trump University” (and other scams), Clinton’s own criminal investigation will give him an easy out.
Unfortunately the few dozen super delegates in Clinton’s New York crowd have more voting power in the rigged Democratic primaries than the 50,000 people at Sander’s Michigan rally.
I have heard this “rigged” accusation a fair bit from the CDS (Clinton Derangement Syndrome) crowd so I looked into it. The Democrat system is weighted to give the winner an advantage. They came up with the system voluntarily, to avoid the mess the Republican process is. Everyone knows the rules. It is hardly “rigged”, unless you are a moron who can’t tell the difference.
The Super Delegates have an influence, but it’s not absolute. It operates within about a +/-8% range of 50%.
In other words if Sanders was over 58% of the ordinary delegates, the Super’s would make no difference.
Also there is the very real consideration that the Supers are NOT actually tied to vote either way. It is entirely possible for them to switch to Sanders en-mass if they come to believe that is the best strategic decision for the Party.
The nice thing is that Sanders supporters will get behind Hillary. Over in the Republican party, if Trump wins, there’s no guarantee that conservatives will vote for him, let alone support him.
I’m not sure about the ‘#neverTrump’ people on the right Lanth. It’s early days yet and they think they can still stop him. If they don’t and he gets the nom, and picks a running mate the blowhards can say will ‘guide him’, they’ll get on board.
‘It’s terrible Trump is terrible really awful he;s a conman who couldn’t beat Clinton, Clinton will beat him and It’s very important we nominate someone who can beat Clinton’
Obvs that’s not a quote, but it’s a paraphrase of the argument I heard.
the thing I’m listening for is:
‘Trump would be worse than Clinton and if we nominate him, I will vote for Clinton and suggest you do likewise for the sake of our Republic’
Possibly, yet the polling data on one-on-one match ups suggests, if anyhting, that the overall effect of nominating Sanders over Clinton would be to increase the chance that Trump would be defeated. (That recent CNN/ORC poll linked to on Ad’s post yesterday.)
538 says that those sorts of polls this early in the election cycle, for the general election, are pretty much worthless at predicting anything.
Also if anyone is a strong supporter of Sanders, they will be politically motivated to say they would vote for Sanders vs Trump, but that they would vote for Trump and not Clinton.
So then the arguments become ones based on assumptions and trying to work out which assumptions make more sense in relation to the general political context.
On that basis, I’d still argue that there is a good chance that Sanders may well outperform Clinton in a runoff with Trump. That’s because Sanders – as even liberal and right wing commenters have suggested – appears to be tapping a similar disillusionment with establishment politics.
On the assumption that Clinton-backing liberals would not vote for Trump (or simply not vote) in order to spite Sanders, that may well mean that Sanders could ‘steal’ a few percent of Trump’s supporters – e.g., working class conservatives who are suspicious of establishment politics, corporations, ‘big money’, etc. and so had been supporting Trump who they perceived to be ‘independent’ of all of that.
Also, I think you overestimate the extent to which Republican supporters who are currently supportive of Trump’s rivals such as Cruz and Rubio find Trump a no-go zone. Unlike Republican grandees like Romney I suspect that the worldview of Cruz and Rubio supporters is far closer to the worldview they perceive Trump has than the worldview of Hillary Clinton.
In fact, I’ve heard the odd ‘vox pop’ during the primaries where Republican voters have talked about how they were tossing up between Cruz and Trump.
The East Coast patrician Republican worldview (represented by people like Romney) is not in the ascendancy in the Republican party voter base. That’s why the Republican elite is now in this position of openly splitting the party for the sake of their own dominance.
They are up against a populist insurgency. And populism actually has a strong history in US politics.
There are 3 salient points they’ve found so far:
1. People who vote Trump have typically made up their mind a long time ago. People who make up their mind in the few days before or day of voting are going for Rubio / Trump at a much higher rate than they go for Trump. This suggests Trump has a large floor of support, but also that he may have a low ceiling.
2. When asking for second-preference, Rubio and Cruz get a lot more of the votes than Trump does.
3. Trump has largely gotten around the 35% mark in the Super Tuesday vote, another indication that he may have a ceiling on support. In their model for how each candidate can reach the nomination, Trump is only running at 113% of his required delegate count right now – they thought anything around 250 delegates on ST would have been ‘not great’ for Trump and he only got 263.
If the ‘late deciders’ are going for Cruz/Rubio rather than Trump the question remains whether that is because they would never go anywhere near Trump (even if they had to vote Democrat or not vote in order not to vote for him) and so were only tossing up between Cruz and Rubio (or one of the other candidates) as part of their late decision making or, alternatively, that Trump was still a live option for them up until polling day/week.
Given the other point further down the thread that only 49% of those exit-polled in Republican primaries would be supportive of Trump, it suggests that they’re actively deciding against Trump.
I think the main thing if Trump wins the nomination, is that we’re in unchartered waters. He’s not a politician, and he would be the first non-politician to win the nomination of the 2 parties. He’s also a demagogue, an obvious racist and a self-aggrandizing pathological liar etc.
It’s quite possible that he could win on a wave of high-turnout from those who are fed-up with the establishment, but equally he could lose with a lot of republican voters staying home, or switching to Hillary.
Goes into detail, but takeaway is that to stop Trump the GOP now needs to deny him a majority at the convention. To do that, Rubio needs to win Florida (99 delgates winner takes all). For him to win, Kasich and Cruz need to tell their voters in Florida to vote Rubio.
Have you got polling data to back that up? I honestly hope you are right as I agree she will probably be the nominee. However all the polls I have seen reported recently show her as performing far worse than Bernie in 1v1’s with all the possible Republican candidates.
The movement is called “Bernie or Bust,” and it means just that:
If Sen. Bernard Sanders of Vermont loses the Democratic presidential nomination, a group of his supporters will either write in his name in the general election or consider casting their ballot for a Republican.
The one thing they certainly won’t do: Vote for Hillary Clinton.
while the establishment is busy making sure they get an acceptable candidate into the Oval Office the mood that has supported Bernie may well turn the House and Senate on their heads a wee way down the track…so it may all be for nought
That reminds me of the PUMAs who refused to support Obama in 08 after he defeated their Candidiate, Hillary, in the primaries and thus handing the Whitehouse to President McCain.
Except there’s a reasonable chance that the next president is going to appoint 2 SCOTUS judges, and letting Trump do the appointment is hardly going to help those who are supporting Sanders.
Because Trump wouldn’t be appointing “anti-establishment” SCOTUS judges (whatever that would even be). He’d appoint conservatives who would only give stronger powers to corporations and crack down even further on civil liberties.
Trump’s already basically said he’s going to throw the First Amendment out the window. That’s free speech, freedom of the press, freedom of religion, freedom to assemble peacefully gone right there, if he gets enough justices on side.
Trump can’t overturn the constitution, or it’s amendments.
He can try and pass laws that go against the constitution; they might be enforcible for a short period of time, but the SCOTUS will make short work of that.
There’s quite a lot of latitude in how the Supreme Court can choose to interpret the Constitution.
For instance, the Second Amendment was not widely considered to guarantee an individual right to weapons until Heller 2008.
Corporations were not held to have the same rights to free speech as individuals, until Citizens United.
As Scalia showed (with assistance), there’s considerable opportunity for the Supreme Court to radically change what the effective meaning actually is, without going to the extent of a Constitutional Amendment.
The last ruling on freedom of the press by the SCOTUS in 1964 was a unanimous 9-0 ruling.
Any new ruling to support the sort of things Trump is saying would need to reverse that previous SCOTUS decision. That seems very unlikely.
There’s a difference between finding a new angle on a particular question that hasn’t been addressed before. That’s quite different to reversing a ruling that the court previously made on the same (or almost the same) question.
Those supporting Sanders are generally supporting his anti establishment stance, thus most would rather support Trump opposed to letting Clinton in.
This is arguably the most untrue thing ever written in a comment on The Standard.
Sanders has been a member of Congress and/or Senate for the last 25 years. Sanders’ supporters are overwhelmingly white, young, and (most importantly) liberal – they’re socially aware and hold almost zero opinions consistent with Trump (TPP being the one notable exception).
Exit polls of candidate satisfaction (i.e. “Would you be satisfied if candidate X was the democrat nominee) show that supporters of Both Clinton and Sanders would be about 75% supportive of the other candidate. These results are in line with the ’08 results for Clinton and Obama. On the other hand, only 49% of republicans would be satisfied with Trump as the GOP nominee.
Yes, Sanders is clearly much more anti-establishment than Clinton, which is why a number support him. Therefore, most (of the those that support his anti establishment stance) would have little problem voting for Trump opposed to Clinton.
“ On the other hand, only 49% of republicans would be satisfied with Trump as the GOP nominee.”
That’s interesting – though as Lanthanide said earlier when I was quoting current polling, it may not be at all indicative of voting behaviour in November.
Do you have any links to those exit polls? Genuinely interested to read more about them.
“That’s interesting – though as Lanthanide said earlier when I was quoting current polling, it may not be at all indicative of voting behaviour in November.”
538 specifically addressed the question of “head to head polls between candidates of each party in the general election”.
That’s not the same as “who is your preferred nominee”.
The main difference is time: the general election is many months away, and the majority of the American public just aren’t interested in it. But the primaries are underway right now, so anyone who is interested in the primary, is likely to give an indicative answer to that question.
Remember that primaries are typically attended by the political geeks; I’m mostly just guessing here but I’d suspect less than 2 million Americans are involved in any of the primaries at all. Asking questions to people who *have just voted* is very different than trying to poll random Americans and whom they might theoretically vote for in November. And if your sample is politically active voters, then as I noted before those who support Sanders over Clinton have a political motive to lie to the pollster and said they’d vote for Trump over Clinton in order to make her numbers look bad and thereby give additional support to Sanders.
Do they really think he’s going to be anti establishment if he’s ever appointed to the white house?
No matter what Trump says now, if he were to become president, he wouldn’t be the one making any important decisions. The President is a figurehead, put in place to give the masses a ‘face’ in charge.
Presented with the choice of Clinton or Trump, I’d expect them to support Clinton, if only to keep the far worse option (Trump) out of the white house.
Hillary Clinton: Outsourcer-in-Chief
MARCH 3, 2016
BURLINGTON, Vt. – U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Campaign Manager Jeff Weaver on Wednesday released the following statement in response to Secretary Clinton’s comments on trade at a rally in New York City:
“At a rally on Wednesday former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told those gathered, ‘Don’t let anybody tell you we can’t make anything in America anymore.’
“What she failed to tell the audience is that she has been a consistent advocate of the job-killing trade deals that have contributed to the loss of nearly 60,000 factories in the United States and almost 5 million manufacturing jobs over the last 15 years.
“Hillary Clinton supported NAFTA. NAFTA cost 850,000 U.S. jobs. 43,000 jobs alone in Michigan. 35,000 jobs in Ohio. 35,000 in Illinois.
“Hillary Clinton supported Permanent Normalized Trade Relations with China. That deal cost the country 3.2 million jobs.
“The free trade agreement with Panama? Guess what, Hillary Clinton supported that one too.
“Now, American jobs are threatened by the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Hillary Clinton spoke favorably about the TPP 45 times. She called it the ‘Gold Standard.’ Now she says she ‘has reservations about it.’
“Tom Donohue, head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and strong supporter of these job-crushing trade deals, is not worried about Clinton getting in the way of this deal. He said he knows that if she’s elected she’ll flip back to support it.
“Election year conversions won’t bring back American jobs. Bernie Sanders believes that the top priority of any trade deal should be to help American workers and he’s the only candidate who has consistently fought against job-killing trade deals.”
______________________________________
Penny Bright
2016 Auckland Mayoral candidate.
(The only 2016 Auckland Mayoral candidate who is actively opposed to the TPPA)
On Super Tuesday, Clinton gained 3,564,892 votes. Sanders gained 2,293,273. Pictures may be worth a thousand words, but numbers are a different thing altogether and by any measure Sanders suffered a shellacking. I like Sanders, I would prefer him to gain the nomination, but we can’t ignore the 3:2 vote disadvantage he’s suffering.
Also if you consider that Bernie is typically supported by the more affluent white voters (who would have time and resources to go to rallies), whereas Clinton has much stronger support amongst poor blacks…
If Trumps support continues to gather momentum, to the point where he is the overwhelming choice of voters on the right, what is to stop him refusing the Republican nomination and running as an independent?
He has the money and the backing of a lot of money but wouldn’t be beholden to anyone.
He wouldn’t run as an independent as long as he could be the Republican candidate.
The partys in the US should be thought more of as campaign machines. They have the staff, the technology and the experience to get out the vote and advertise for the candidate.
A better question is really – would the GOP machinery refuse to fully co-operate with Trump? How many key personnel would resign?
He’s already pretty good at selling his “not beholden to anyone” pitch even running within the Republican party.
The window for getting on the ballot nationwide as an independent for November is actually closing fairly soon. Although the deadlines generally aren’t until July or so, for each state there needs to be thousands of signatures collected and verified. Effectively the decision needs to be made probably by early April. It definitely can’t wait until after the convention.
Tony Veitch (not the partner-bashing 3rd rate broadcaster) 9
I still think that Bernie will get the nomination and go on to be the next president of the USA – with Elizabeth Warren as his VP – now wouldn’t that be a dream outcome!
But, more importantly, even if he doesn’t, the rocks Bernie’s tossing into the political pool in America will create ripples which will circle the world and be felt even here in NZ.
There is light at the end of the tunnel – the unravelling of the neoliberal cobweb has begun!
The usual logic for VP is you pick a complement, both geographic and interests. Since Warren is from the Northeast and shares Sanders’ interests in inequality, healthcare, breaking up Wall St, by conventional wisdom she would be a poor choice. Someone from the western half or south of the US, with foreign policy cred would tick more of the usual boxes.
Tony Veitch (not the partner-bashing 3rd rate broadcaster) 9.1.1
The Trump shot taken with the crowd, the Clinton shot taken from behind the stage.
The pictures may say a lot, but they also lie.
You just fell for the usual tricks.
The Clinton shot can’t be from behind the stage, otherwise the audience are showing her their backs. The organisers are lighting the wrong end of the hall too.
But don’t believe your lying eyes, Clinton is clearly the most electable.
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Today in our National-led authoritarian nightmare: Shane Jones thinks Ministers should be above the law: New Zealand First MP Shane Jones is accusing the Waitangi Tribunal of over-stepping its mandate by subpoenaing a minister for its urgent hearing on the Oranga Tamariki claim. The tribunal is looking into the ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. ...
Citizen Science writes – Last week saw two significant developments in the debate over the treatment of trans-identifying children and young people – the release in Britain of the final report of Dr Hilary Cass’s review into gender healthcare, and here in New Zealand, the news that the ...
One night while sleeping in my bed I had a beautiful dreamThat all the people of the world got together on the same wavelengthAnd began helping one anotherNow in this dream, universal love was the theme of the dayPeace and understanding and it happened this wayAfter such an eventful day ...
This is a guest post by Oscar Simms who is a housing activist, volunteer for the Coalition for More Homes, and was the Labour Party candidate for Auckland Central at the last election. ...
Turning what Labour called the “holiday highway” into a four-lane expressway from Auckland to Whangarei could bring at least an economic benefit of nearly two billion a year for Northland each year. And it could help bring an end to poverty in one of New Zealand’s most deprived regions. The ...
Tonight’s six-stack includes: launching his substack with a bunch of his previous documentaries, including this 1992 interview with Dame Whina Cooper. and here crew give climate activists plenty to do, including this call to submit against the Fast Track Approvals bill. writes brilliantly here on his substack ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
You're in the mall when you hear it: some kind of popping sound in the distance, kids with fireworks, maybe. But then a moment of eerie stillness is followed by more of the fireworks sound and there’s also screaming and shrieking and now here come people running for their lives.Does ...
Karl du Fresne writes – There’s a crisis in the news media and the media are blaming it on everyone except themselves. Culpability is being deflected elsewhere – mainly to the hapless Minister of Communications, Melissa Lee, and the big social media platforms that are accused of hoovering ...
I don’t normally send out two newsletters in a day but I figured I’d say something about… the news. If two newsletters is a bit much then maybe just skip one, I don’t want to overload people. Alternatively if you’d be interested in sometimes receiving multiple, smaller updates from me, ...
Buzz from the Beehive David Seymour and Winston Peters today signalled that at least two ministers of the Crown might be in Wellington today. Seymour (as Associate Minister of Education) announced the removal of more red tape, this time to make it easier for new early learning services to be ...
Politicians across the political spectrum are implicated in the New Zealand media’s failing health. Either through neglect or incompetent interventions, successive governments have failed to regulate, foster, and allow a healthy Fourth Estate that can adequately hold politicians and the powerful to account. Our political system is suffering from the ...
David Farrar writes – The Broadcasting Standards Authority ruled: Comments by radio host Kate Hawkesby suggesting Māori and Pacific patients were being prioritised for surgery due to their ethnicity were misleading and discriminatory, the Broadcasting Standards Authority has found. It is a fact such patients are prioritised. ...
PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time.A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans. Cleo Paskall writes – On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of ...
Is speeding up the trip to and from Wellington airport by 12 minutes worth spending up more than $10 billion? Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brownannounced ...
You're a fraud, and you know itBut it's too good to throw it all awayAnyone would do the sameYou've got 'em goingAnd you're careful not to show itSometimes you even fool yourself a bitIt's like magicBut it's always been a smoke and mirrors gameAnyone would do the sameForty six billion ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
New Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...
Today’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...
Minister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...
The Government’s newly announced review of methane emissions reduction targets hints at its desire to delay Aotearoa New Zealand’s urgent transition to a climate safe future, the Green Party said. ...
The Government must commit to the Maitai School building project for students with high and complex needs, to ensure disabled students from the top of the South Island have somewhere to learn. ...
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey and his Government colleagues have made a meal of their mental health commitments, showing how flimsy their efforts to champion the issue truly are, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...
Māori are yet to see anything from this Government except cuts, reversals and taking our people backwards, Māori Development spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...
The Coalition Government’s refusal to commit to ongoing funding for social housing is seeing the sector pull back on developments and families watch their dreams of securing a home fade away, says Labour Housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty. ...
Changes to minimum wage and benefit indexation means many New Zealanders will get less this year, as the Government gives a big tax break to landlords instead. ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
The Government is making legislative changes to make it easier for new early learning services to be established, and for existing services to operate, Associate Education Minister David Seymour says. The changes involve repealing the network approval provisions that apply when someone wants to establish a new early learning service, ...
Changes to the Resource Management Act will align consenting for coal mining to other forms of mining to reduce barriers that are holding back economic development, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The inconsistent treatment of coal mining compared with other extractive activities is burdensome red tape that fails to acknowledge ...
Trade, Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay has concluded productive discussions with ministerial counterparts in Beijing today, in support of the New Zealand-China trade and economic relationship. “My meeting with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao reaffirmed the complementary nature of the bilateral trade relationship, with our Free Trade Agreement at its ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon today paid tribute to Singapore’s outgoing Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Meeting in Singapore today immediately before Prime Minister Lee announced he was stepping down, Prime Minister Luxon warmly acknowledged his counterpart’s almost twenty years as leader, and the enduring legacy he has left for Singapore and South East ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. While in Singapore as part of his visit to South East Asia this week, Prime Minister Luxon also met with Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and will meet with Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has made further appointments to the Board of Antarctica New Zealand as part of a continued effort to ensure the Scott Base Redevelopment project is delivered in a cost-effective and efficient manner. The Minister has appointed Neville Harris as a new member of the Board. Mr ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis will travel to the United States on Tuesday to attend a meeting of the Five Finance Ministers group, with counterparts from Australia, the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. “I am looking forward to meeting with our Five Finance partners on how we can work ...
The coalition Government has today announced purrfect and pawsitive changes to the Residential Tenancies Act to give tenants with pets greater choice when looking for a rental property, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Pets are important members of many Kiwi families. It’s estimated that around 64 per cent of New ...
State Highway 1 (SH1) through Wellington City is heavily congested at peak times and while planning continues on the duplicate Mt Victoria Tunnel and Basin Reserve project, the Government has also asked NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) to consider and provide advice on a Long Tunnel option, Transport Minister Simeon Brown ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have condemned Iran’s shocking and illegal strikes against Israel. “These attacks are a major challenge to peace and stability in a region already under enormous pressure," Mr Luxon says. "We are deeply concerned that miscalculation on any side could ...
Hundreds of people in little over a week have turned out in Northland to hear Regional Development Minister Shane Jones speak about plans for boosting the regional economy through infrastructure. About 200 people from the infrastructure and associated sectors attended an event headlined by Mr Jones in Whangarei today. Last ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has today thanked outgoing Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora Chair Dame Karen Poutasi for her service on the Board. “Dame Karen tendered her resignation as Chair and as a member of the Board today,” says Dr Reti. “I have asked her to ...
The NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) has signalled their proposed delivery approach for the Government’s 15 Roads of National Significance (RoNS), with the release of the State Highway Investment Proposal (SHIP) today, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to ...
New Zealand is renewing its connections with a world facing urgent challenges by pursuing an active, energetic foreign policy, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Our country faces the most unstable global environment in decades,” Mr Peters says at the conclusion of two weeks of engagements in Egypt, Europe and the United States. “We cannot afford to sit back in splendid ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced the Australian Governor-General, His Excellency General The Honourable David Hurley and his wife Her Excellency Mrs Linda Hurley, will make a State visit to New Zealand from Tuesday 16 April to Thursday 18 April. The visit reciprocates the State visit of former Governor-General Dame Patsy Reddy ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced that Medsafe has approved 11 cold and flu medicines containing pseudoephedrine. Pharmaceutical suppliers have indicated they may be able to supply the first products in June. “This is much earlier than the original expectation of medicines being available by 2025. The Government recognised ...
New Zealand and the United States have recommitted to their strategic partnership in Washington DC today, pledging to work ever more closely together in support of shared values and interests, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The strategic environment that New Zealand and the United States face is considerably more ...
April 11, 2024 Joint Declaration by United States Secretary of State the Honorable Antony J. Blinken and New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs the Right Honourable Winston Peters We met today in Washington, D.C. to recommit to the historic partnership between our two countries and the principles that underpin it—rule ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced further New Zealand cooperation with the United States in the Pacific Islands region through $16.4 million in funding for initiatives in digital connectivity and oceans and fisheries research. “New Zealand can achieve more in the Pacific if we work together more urgently and ...
This week in Auckland, a group of young people took over the microphone at a ministerial press conference, to explain why they oppose the Fast-Track Approvals Bill. One young woman said, ‘We’re here because we love Aotearoa New Zealand. We want to raise our children in an environment that’s thriving, ...
The summer was wonderful. Evie was wonderful, too; finally a teenager, finally worthy of long, hot days. She shaved her legs for the first time and bought cut-off shorts from the op-shop that made them look long. She got a Warehouse singlet so tight on her new shape that her ...
When Thomas James was on his solo camp as part of Outward Bound, the keen outdoorsman didn’t find it too challenging, as others often do. In what might just be the perfect illustration of his character, he saw it as a great opportunity to solve a few problems. “I thought, ...
From the unstable and drippy to the hi-tech and pretty, here’s our ranking of all the tunnels you can drive through in this country. The first tunnel seems to have been built in 2200BC in Babylonia, kicking off a global phenomenon for digging holes in order to get places more ...
Lucinda Bennett on the art of being greedy but resourceful. This is an excerpt from our weekly food newsletter, The Boil Up. When I picture the market, it is always this time of year. Crisp air, dripping nose, counting coins with cold fingers. Sunlight pale, filtered through specks of dew still ...
Zoë Colling’s favourite piece in the ‘That’s So Last Century’ collection is a lubrication chart for a sewing machine from the ’60s. It’s about the size of a postcard, and carefully maintained. “I like it that this piece of ephemera highlights that manual and technical side of the skill involved ...
Kia Ora Gaza A passionate haka reverberated through Auckland International Airport as a medical team of three New Zealand doctors received an emotional farewell from a big crowd of supporters before flying to Turkey to join the international Freedom Flotilla to Gaza. The doctors, who left Auckland yesterday, hope to ...
With submissions closing today, Macassey-Pickard says groups around the country have been supporting a huge range of people to make their submissions. ...
Our response to the new legislation is informed by targeted conversations with practitioners working in the system and through an implementation lens. ...
The new ‘Fast-track Approvals Bill’ would give just three Ministers the power to approve or deny development projects. They would avoid the usual checks and balances that are in place to protect rivers, land, the ocean, and communities. ...
COMMENTARY:By Eugene Doyle Helen Clark, how I miss you. The former New Zealand Prime Minister — the safest pair of hands this country has had in living memory — gave a masterclass on the importance of maintaining an independent foreign policy when she spoke at an AUKUS symposium held ...
The government's released the list of organisations provided with information on how to apply - just hours before public submissions on the bill close. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney Before climate change really got going, eastern Australia’s flash floods tended to concentrate on our coastal regions, east of the Great Dividing Range. But that’s changing. Now ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elizabeth Finkel, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, La Trobe University Sia Duff / South Australian Museum In February, the South Australian Museum “re-imagined” itself. In the face of rising costs and inadequate government funds, CEO David Gaimster, who took the reins last June, declared ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Pearce, Professor, School of Allied Heath, Human Services & Sport, La Trobe University, La Trobe University This week, Collingwood AFL player Nathan Murphy announced his retirement, brought on by his concussion history and ongoing issues. The 24-year-old’s seemingly sudden retirement, ...
The Mental Health Foundation provides support and resources for those facing the loss of their job, so it’s wrong in the very week the Government adds another 1000 jobs to its tally of cuts, that this is happening. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Howard, Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English and Writing, University of Sydney Daniel Boud/Sydney Theatre Company Decay, terror, revulsion. These are three of the central themes of Thomas Bernhard’s rarely performed play The President. The Austrian is one of the greatest ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ye In (Jane) Hwang, Postdoctoral Research Associate at School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney Shutterstock You’d be hard pressed to find any aspect of daily life that doesn’t require some form of digital literacy. We need only to look back ten ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says threats by ministers Shane Jones and David Seymour to reform or close down the Waitangi Tribunal were “ill-considered”, as legal experts say the ministers may have breached Cabinet Manual conventions. “I think those comments are ill-considered and we expect all ministers to actually exercise good ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Newton, Professor of Exercise Medicine, Edith Cowan University Pexels/RDNE stock project You’re not in your 20s or 30s anymore and you know regular health checks are important. So you go to your GP. During the appointment they measure your waist. ...
A new poem by Evangeline Riddiford Graham. Mitochondrial Problem I. It was long drive to Kansas for the man and his dog but you have to understand he said She doesn’t fly. Which calls to mind not carsick shitting barking or whining but a dog who chooses not to as ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Hemingway’s Goblet by Dermot Ross (Mary Egan Publishing, $38)Hot off the press, this debut ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Wajnryb McDonald, PhD candidate in Criminology, University of Sydney Less than 24 hours after Ashlee Good was murdered in Bondi Junction, her family released a statement requesting the media take down photographs they had reproduced of Ashlee and her family without ...
Chief executive Shaun Robinson said it has not had any government funding cut, but government-funded contracts have not kept pace with rising costs. ...
The Ministry of Health has delayed the release of its evidence brief on the safety, reversibility and mental health and wellbeing outcomes for puberty blockers. While we wait, Julia de Bres speaks to those with firsthand experience. Best practice gender-affirming healthcare is based on trans people’s self-determination and agency. The ...
Barcelona’s city streets have gone from traffic-clogged to pedestrian-friendly. How? Superblocks. Ellen Rykers explains. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week I read a great interview with renowned urbanist Janette Sadik-Khan by The Spinoff’s Wellington editor Joel MacManus: “You can reimagine streets, ...
Student groups ‘Climate Action VUW’, Schools Strike 4 Climate and VUWSA will be on the street in Wellington today, the last day for submissions on the Fast-track Approvals Bill, with a message that the fight against the Government’s ‘War on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sofia Ammassari, Research Fellow, Griffith University Since 2014, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity has grown exponentially – and so has the formidable organisational machine of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). These two factors will be key to delivering the BJP a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendon Hyndman, Associate Professor of Education (Adjunct) & Senior Manager (BCE), Charles Sturt University During COVID almost all Australian students and their families experienced online learning. But while schools have long since gone back to in-person teaching, online learning has not gone ...
Yes, they’re better for the environment. No, that’s not a good enough reason for me to use them. Once every 26 days or so, my period arrives, and if struck by an act of God, I am caught red-crotched without products. How, after 17 years of this, do I still ...
“It will cause significant harm to our environment and communities. It is completely at odds with New Zealanders’ relationship with nature and our need for a low-carbon, sustainable economic future." ...
The Chair of the National Maori Authority, Matthew Tukaki, has warned a Parliamentary Select Committee that fast-tracking legislation is a perilous practice that undermines the core tenets of democracy, transparency, and accountability. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Tenbensel, Associate Professor, Health Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images Since coming into power, the coalition government has adopted a simple but shrewd see-how-fast-we-can-move political strategy. However, in the health sector this need for speed entails ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Hronis, Clinical Psychologist, University of Technology Sydney Darya Sannikova/Pexels Whether you’re watching TV, attending a footy game, or eating a meal at your local pub, gambling is hard to escape. Although the rise of gambling is not unique to Australia, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Wong, Forrest Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia Have you ever wondered if there are more insects out at night than during the day? We set out to answer this question by combing through the scientific ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol T Kulik, Research Professor, University of South Australia IR Stone/Shutterstock In Australia, it’s not the done thing to know – let alone ask – what our colleagues are paid. Yet, it’s easy to see how pay transparency can make pay ...
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) is sounding a warning to migrants, that running foul of the law may see them leaving the country prematurely. ...
The government’s plan to get 50,000 people off jobseeker support by 2030 has had a rocky start, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. Beneficiary numbers are up – and so are ...
Raglan Roast is a staple of Wellington coffee culture. But with five branches across the capital, which one is the best? I am a die-hard Raglan Roast fan. It’s consistently the most affordable cafe in Wellington, and one of the only places you can get a coffee after 3pm. So, ...
Residents of University of Auckland halls are being urged to withhold their accommodation fees from May 1, in a bid to force the university to take student concerns over rent hikes seriously.The University of Auckland is facing a strike from students over the cost of on-campus accommodation. The Students ...
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Opinion: With maths understanding at 42 percent for Year 8 students, there’s no doubt something has to be done. But how? The post Financial literacy should be on all of us appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Hineaupounamu ‘Missy’ Nuku has been scaling mountains in Canada for her college basketball team, the Lakeland Rustlers. Alberta is currently home for the 20-year-old point guard, who is in her first year of a scholarship at Lakeland College, where she is studying for a business degree. She has certainly made ...
New Zealand and the Philippines have signed a new maritime security agreement and stated their concerns over activity in the South China Sea, as Chinese vessels continue to flout international law. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Philippines President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos committed to signing a Mutual Logistics Supporting Arrangement by ...
The thousands of government “back-office” job cuts are causing widespread pain in the capital city. In today’s episode of The Detail, we speak to three journalists and a think tank researcher, looking at the larger picture around the cuts and what effect it will have on Wellington, a city that’s ...
Opinion: The famed American architect and urban designer Daniel Burnham once said, “Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood!” Burnham wouldn’t have been referring to the transport plans in Aotearoa New Zealand over the past five years; projects so big they hadn’t the credibility to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra When ASIO boss Mike Burgess delivered his annual threat assessment earlier this year, he stressed the rising danger posed by espionage and foreign interference. “In 2024, threats to our way of life have surpassed ...
The Tribunal had called on Minister for Children Karen Chhour to provide evidence at an urgent inquiry into the repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University Midjourney image by T.J. Thomson As more than half of Australian office workers report using generative artificial intelligence (AI) for work, we’re starting to see this technology affect every ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Nicole Sharwood, Injury epidemiologist | Expert Witness, UNSW Sydney Sergey Novikov/Shutterstock Injuries are the leading cause of disability and death among Australian children and adolescents. At least a quarter of all emergency department presentations during childhood are injury-related. Injuries can ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Di Winkler, Adjunct Associate Professor, Living with Disability Research Centre, La Trobe University Shutterstock/Ground PictureMany Australians with disability feel on the edge of a precipice right now. Recommendations from the disability royal commission and the NDIS review were released late ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Salman Shooshtarian, Senior Lecturer, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT University Salman Shooshtarian Asbestos has been found in mulch used for playgrounds, schools, parks and gardens across Sydney and Melbourne. Local communities naturally fear for the health of their ...
Sanders’ “rent a crowd” must be giving the Washington DC troughers nightmares
Yep. Even if he loses, he wins and we do too.
https://www.facebook.com/carl.davidson.7773/posts/10153631959838821
Speaking of Clinton’s history, this doesn’t look good:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-clinton-email-investigation-justice-department-grants-immunity-to-former-state-department-staffer/2016/03/02/e421e39e-e0a0-11e5-9c36-e1902f6b6571_story.html?wpisrc=al_alert-COMBO-politics%252Bnation
The FBI can investigate all they like but on the eve of a once in a generation opportunity to influence the judiciary the Obama justice department ain’t going to indict.
joe90
There doesn’t have to be an indictment for Clinton’s campaign to be concerned about what Pagliano information coughed up to get personal immunity. Also; when it comes to raking Trump over the coals about his “Trump University” (and other scams), Clinton’s own criminal investigation will give him an easy out.
like horse racing, politics is not a level playing field and as well backed as Bernie is the *trainers* will milkshake Hillary
That’s the most words I’ve read in the comments without vitriol or conspiracy I was compelled to acknowledge the occasion.
Unfortunately the few dozen super delegates in Clinton’s New York crowd have more voting power in the rigged Democratic primaries than the 50,000 people at Sander’s Michigan rally.
I have heard this “rigged” accusation a fair bit from the CDS (Clinton Derangement Syndrome) crowd so I looked into it. The Democrat system is weighted to give the winner an advantage. They came up with the system voluntarily, to avoid the mess the Republican process is. Everyone knows the rules. It is hardly “rigged”, unless you are a moron who can’t tell the difference.
Sort of like the Labour leadership voting structure?
Similar concept but not quite the same
Exactly. The Democrats are up-front about the role of Super Delegates. They don’t hide behind the union vote.
😛
The Super Delegates have an influence, but it’s not absolute. It operates within about a +/-8% range of 50%.
In other words if Sanders was over 58% of the ordinary delegates, the Super’s would make no difference.
Also there is the very real consideration that the Supers are NOT actually tied to vote either way. It is entirely possible for them to switch to Sanders en-mass if they come to believe that is the best strategic decision for the Party.
The nice thing is that Sanders supporters will get behind Hillary. Over in the Republican party, if Trump wins, there’s no guarantee that conservatives will vote for him, let alone support him.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/mar/03/campaign-updates-us-presidential-election-2016-gop-debate-romney-trump-clinton
Many conservatives will get behind Hillary if Trump wins. It’s not so easy to see the same happening if it were Bernie vs Trump.
I’m not sure about the ‘#neverTrump’ people on the right Lanth. It’s early days yet and they think they can still stop him. If they don’t and he gets the nom, and picks a running mate the blowhards can say will ‘guide him’, they’ll get on board.
Mitt Romney doesn’t share your sentiment.
Right now he is saying stuff, sure.
‘It’s terrible Trump is terrible really awful he;s a conman who couldn’t beat Clinton, Clinton will beat him and It’s very important we nominate someone who can beat Clinton’
Obvs that’s not a quote, but it’s a paraphrase of the argument I heard.
the thing I’m listening for is:
‘Trump would be worse than Clinton and if we nominate him, I will vote for Clinton and suggest you do likewise for the sake of our Republic’
That’s true. Given the tone of his speech, I do find it slightly surprising that he didn’t say that.
Possibly, yet the polling data on one-on-one match ups suggests, if anyhting, that the overall effect of nominating Sanders over Clinton would be to increase the chance that Trump would be defeated. (That recent CNN/ORC poll linked to on Ad’s post yesterday.)
538 says that those sorts of polls this early in the election cycle, for the general election, are pretty much worthless at predicting anything.
Also if anyone is a strong supporter of Sanders, they will be politically motivated to say they would vote for Sanders vs Trump, but that they would vote for Trump and not Clinton.
Fair enough about the early polling.
So then the arguments become ones based on assumptions and trying to work out which assumptions make more sense in relation to the general political context.
On that basis, I’d still argue that there is a good chance that Sanders may well outperform Clinton in a runoff with Trump. That’s because Sanders – as even liberal and right wing commenters have suggested – appears to be tapping a similar disillusionment with establishment politics.
On the assumption that Clinton-backing liberals would not vote for Trump (or simply not vote) in order to spite Sanders, that may well mean that Sanders could ‘steal’ a few percent of Trump’s supporters – e.g., working class conservatives who are suspicious of establishment politics, corporations, ‘big money’, etc. and so had been supporting Trump who they perceived to be ‘independent’ of all of that.
Also, I think you overestimate the extent to which Republican supporters who are currently supportive of Trump’s rivals such as Cruz and Rubio find Trump a no-go zone. Unlike Republican grandees like Romney I suspect that the worldview of Cruz and Rubio supporters is far closer to the worldview they perceive Trump has than the worldview of Hillary Clinton.
In fact, I’ve heard the odd ‘vox pop’ during the primaries where Republican voters have talked about how they were tossing up between Cruz and Trump.
The East Coast patrician Republican worldview (represented by people like Romney) is not in the ascendancy in the Republican party voter base. That’s why the Republican elite is now in this position of openly splitting the party for the sake of their own dominance.
They are up against a populist insurgency. And populism actually has a strong history in US politics.
538 has been trying to gauge Trumps popularity.
There are 3 salient points they’ve found so far:
1. People who vote Trump have typically made up their mind a long time ago. People who make up their mind in the few days before or day of voting are going for Rubio / Trump at a much higher rate than they go for Trump. This suggests Trump has a large floor of support, but also that he may have a low ceiling.
2. When asking for second-preference, Rubio and Cruz get a lot more of the votes than Trump does.
3. Trump has largely gotten around the 35% mark in the Super Tuesday vote, another indication that he may have a ceiling on support. In their model for how each candidate can reach the nomination, Trump is only running at 113% of his required delegate count right now – they thought anything around 250 delegates on ST would have been ‘not great’ for Trump and he only got 263.
Also interesting points. Thanks.
I think you meant “Rubio/Cruz …”?
The question for November seems wide open, then.
If the ‘late deciders’ are going for Cruz/Rubio rather than Trump the question remains whether that is because they would never go anywhere near Trump (even if they had to vote Democrat or not vote in order not to vote for him) and so were only tossing up between Cruz and Rubio (or one of the other candidates) as part of their late decision making or, alternatively, that Trump was still a live option for them up until polling day/week.
Interesting stuff.
Given the other point further down the thread that only 49% of those exit-polled in Republican primaries would be supportive of Trump, it suggests that they’re actively deciding against Trump.
I think the main thing if Trump wins the nomination, is that we’re in unchartered waters. He’s not a politician, and he would be the first non-politician to win the nomination of the 2 parties. He’s also a demagogue, an obvious racist and a self-aggrandizing pathological liar etc.
It’s quite possible that he could win on a wave of high-turnout from those who are fed-up with the establishment, but equally he could lose with a lot of republican voters staying home, or switching to Hillary.
Whatever people do though the basic maths on the clock is running out
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/3/11159470/republican-disaster
Goes into detail, but takeaway is that to stop Trump the GOP now needs to deny him a majority at the convention. To do that, Rubio needs to win Florida (99 delgates winner takes all). For him to win, Kasich and Cruz need to tell their voters in Florida to vote Rubio.
Same story for Kasich in Ohio, etc.
But they aren’t doing that.
Have you got polling data to back that up? I honestly hope you are right as I agree she will probably be the nominee. However all the polls I have seen reported recently show her as performing far worse than Bernie in 1v1’s with all the possible Republican candidates.
The movement is called “Bernie or Bust,” and it means just that:
If Sen. Bernard Sanders of Vermont loses the Democratic presidential nomination, a group of his supporters will either write in his name in the general election or consider casting their ballot for a Republican.
The one thing they certainly won’t do: Vote for Hillary Clinton.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/1/hillary-clinton-cant-count-on-bernie-sanders-suppo/
while the establishment is busy making sure they get an acceptable candidate into the Oval Office the mood that has supported Bernie may well turn the House and Senate on their heads a wee way down the track…so it may all be for nought
That reminds me of the PUMAs who refused to support Obama in 08 after he defeated their Candidiate, Hillary, in the primaries and thus handing the Whitehouse to President McCain.
It comes back to the undemocratic voting structure of the Democratic Party.
Yeah, it’s quite easy to make up those sorts of movements at the moment.
But when it comes the 1st of November, and there’s a looming Trump presidency on the horizon, they’ll stick with the devil they know and vote Clinton.
Those supporting Sanders are generally supporting his anti establishment stance, thus most would rather support Trump opposed to letting Clinton in.
Except there’s a reasonable chance that the next president is going to appoint 2 SCOTUS judges, and letting Trump do the appointment is hardly going to help those who are supporting Sanders.
As Trump is also anti establishment, I don’t see why not. It’s still better than allowing Clinton to call the shots.
Because Trump wouldn’t be appointing “anti-establishment” SCOTUS judges (whatever that would even be). He’d appoint conservatives who would only give stronger powers to corporations and crack down even further on civil liberties.
That goes against his anti establishment stance.
Moreover, Clinton is expected do similar. She is part of the establishment.
If she becomes the Party nomination, she will split the Democratic vote, thus most likely cost them the election.
🙄
Trump’s already basically said he’s going to throw the First Amendment out the window. That’s free speech, freedom of the press, freedom of religion, freedom to assemble peacefully gone right there, if he gets enough justices on side.
Citation, thanks.
Haven’t you been paying any attention to what Trump has actually been saying?
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/26/trump-pledges-curb-press-freedom-libel-laws-first-amendment
http://www.salon.com/2015/12/14/who_needs_a_constitution_anyway_donald_trump_sets_the_first_amendment_on_fire/
How many do you need?
Yes, I have been paying attention thanks, thus I questioned your extreme assertion.
“Trump pledged if elected president to “open up our libel laws so when [newspapers] write purposely negative stories … we can sue them “
That’s not putting an end to free speech. The truth will remain a defense.
Moreover, considering the negative reports about him, one can see where he is coming from.
You’re confusing “negative” with “untrue”.
The truth will remain a defense.
Yes, because independent media outlets can totes afford more lawyers.
Trump can’t overturn the constitution, or it’s amendments.
He can try and pass laws that go against the constitution; they might be enforcible for a short period of time, but the SCOTUS will make short work of that.
There’s quite a lot of latitude in how the Supreme Court can choose to interpret the Constitution.
For instance, the Second Amendment was not widely considered to guarantee an individual right to weapons until Heller 2008.
Corporations were not held to have the same rights to free speech as individuals, until Citizens United.
As Scalia showed (with assistance), there’s considerable opportunity for the Supreme Court to radically change what the effective meaning actually is, without going to the extent of a Constitutional Amendment.
The last ruling on freedom of the press by the SCOTUS in 1964 was a unanimous 9-0 ruling.
Any new ruling to support the sort of things Trump is saying would need to reverse that previous SCOTUS decision. That seems very unlikely.
There’s a difference between finding a new angle on a particular question that hasn’t been addressed before. That’s quite different to reversing a ruling that the court previously made on the same (or almost the same) question.
Those supporting Sanders are generally supporting his anti establishment stance, thus most would rather support Trump opposed to letting Clinton in.
This is arguably the most untrue thing ever written in a comment on The Standard.
Sanders has been a member of Congress and/or Senate for the last 25 years. Sanders’ supporters are overwhelmingly white, young, and (most importantly) liberal – they’re socially aware and hold almost zero opinions consistent with Trump (TPP being the one notable exception).
Exit polls of candidate satisfaction (i.e. “Would you be satisfied if candidate X was the democrat nominee) show that supporters of Both Clinton and Sanders would be about 75% supportive of the other candidate. These results are in line with the ’08 results for Clinton and Obama. On the other hand, only 49% of republicans would be satisfied with Trump as the GOP nominee.
“This is arguably the most untrue thing ever written in a comment on The Standard”
Rubbish.
From his funding structure to his stance on Wall Street. Sanders is largely considered the anti establishment nominee on the left.
You missed the second part of your statement:
“thus most would rather support Trump opposed to letting Clinton in.”
Sanders is clearly much more anti-establishment than Clinton – she’s practically the definition.
But your next clause is, as Phil says, arguably the most untrue thing written in a comment on The Standard.
Yes, Sanders is clearly much more anti-establishment than Clinton, which is why a number support him. Therefore, most (of the those that support his anti establishment stance) would have little problem voting for Trump opposed to Clinton.
A Guardian survey found only 7% of Sanders supporters would vote for Trump over Clinton, so much for “most” of them doing so as you claimed.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/13/bernie-sanders-supporters-consider-donald-trump-no-hillary-clinton
“ On the other hand, only 49% of republicans would be satisfied with Trump as the GOP nominee.”
That’s interesting – though as Lanthanide said earlier when I was quoting current polling, it may not be at all indicative of voting behaviour in November.
Do you have any links to those exit polls? Genuinely interested to read more about them.
“That’s interesting – though as Lanthanide said earlier when I was quoting current polling, it may not be at all indicative of voting behaviour in November.”
538 specifically addressed the question of “head to head polls between candidates of each party in the general election”.
That’s not the same as “who is your preferred nominee”.
The main difference is time: the general election is many months away, and the majority of the American public just aren’t interested in it. But the primaries are underway right now, so anyone who is interested in the primary, is likely to give an indicative answer to that question.
Remember that primaries are typically attended by the political geeks; I’m mostly just guessing here but I’d suspect less than 2 million Americans are involved in any of the primaries at all. Asking questions to people who *have just voted* is very different than trying to poll random Americans and whom they might theoretically vote for in November. And if your sample is politically active voters, then as I noted before those who support Sanders over Clinton have a political motive to lie to the pollster and said they’d vote for Trump over Clinton in order to make her numbers look bad and thereby give additional support to Sanders.
“supporting his anti establishment stance”
Do they really think he’s going to be anti establishment if he’s ever appointed to the white house?
No matter what Trump says now, if he were to become president, he wouldn’t be the one making any important decisions. The President is a figurehead, put in place to give the masses a ‘face’ in charge.
TC
Presented with the choice of Clinton or Trump, I’d expect them to support Clinton, if only to keep the far worse option (Trump) out of the white house.
I’m loving my “make Donald Drumpf again” extension. This person you’re talking about just doesn’t exist in a way that makes me angry anymore.
Me too!
Why the rush to ratify the TPPA in NZ – if it may never be ratified in the USA?
And if the TPPA is not ratified in the USA – is that not the end of it?
https://berniesanders.com/press-release/hillary-clinton-outsourcer-in-chief/
Hillary Clinton: Outsourcer-in-Chief
MARCH 3, 2016
BURLINGTON, Vt. – U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Campaign Manager Jeff Weaver on Wednesday released the following statement in response to Secretary Clinton’s comments on trade at a rally in New York City:
“At a rally on Wednesday former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told those gathered, ‘Don’t let anybody tell you we can’t make anything in America anymore.’
“What she failed to tell the audience is that she has been a consistent advocate of the job-killing trade deals that have contributed to the loss of nearly 60,000 factories in the United States and almost 5 million manufacturing jobs over the last 15 years.
“Hillary Clinton supported NAFTA. NAFTA cost 850,000 U.S. jobs. 43,000 jobs alone in Michigan. 35,000 jobs in Ohio. 35,000 in Illinois.
“Hillary Clinton supported Permanent Normalized Trade Relations with China. That deal cost the country 3.2 million jobs.
“The free trade agreement with Panama? Guess what, Hillary Clinton supported that one too.
“Now, American jobs are threatened by the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Hillary Clinton spoke favorably about the TPP 45 times. She called it the ‘Gold Standard.’ Now she says she ‘has reservations about it.’
“Tom Donohue, head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and strong supporter of these job-crushing trade deals, is not worried about Clinton getting in the way of this deal. He said he knows that if she’s elected she’ll flip back to support it.
“Election year conversions won’t bring back American jobs. Bernie Sanders believes that the top priority of any trade deal should be to help American workers and he’s the only candidate who has consistently fought against job-killing trade deals.”
______________________________________
Penny Bright
2016 Auckland Mayoral candidate.
(The only 2016 Auckland Mayoral candidate who is actively opposed to the TPPA)
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/15/politics/45-times-secretary-clinton-pushed-the-trade-bill-she-now-opposes/
+100 Penny
On Super Tuesday, Clinton gained 3,564,892 votes. Sanders gained 2,293,273. Pictures may be worth a thousand words, but numbers are a different thing altogether and by any measure Sanders suffered a shellacking. I like Sanders, I would prefer him to gain the nomination, but we can’t ignore the 3:2 vote disadvantage he’s suffering.
yeah i like Bernie too but the numbers dont lie.
Also if you consider that Bernie is typically supported by the more affluent white voters (who would have time and resources to go to rallies), whereas Clinton has much stronger support amongst poor blacks…
There is also another potential angle to this.
If Trumps support continues to gather momentum, to the point where he is the overwhelming choice of voters on the right, what is to stop him refusing the Republican nomination and running as an independent?
He has the money and the backing of a lot of money but wouldn’t be beholden to anyone.
He wouldn’t run as an independent as long as he could be the Republican candidate.
The partys in the US should be thought more of as campaign machines. They have the staff, the technology and the experience to get out the vote and advertise for the candidate.
A better question is really – would the GOP machinery refuse to fully co-operate with Trump? How many key personnel would resign?
He’s already pretty good at selling his “not beholden to anyone” pitch even running within the Republican party.
The window for getting on the ballot nationwide as an independent for November is actually closing fairly soon. Although the deadlines generally aren’t until July or so, for each state there needs to be thousands of signatures collected and verified. Effectively the decision needs to be made probably by early April. It definitely can’t wait until after the convention.
I still think that Bernie will get the nomination and go on to be the next president of the USA – with Elizabeth Warren as his VP – now wouldn’t that be a dream outcome!
But, more importantly, even if he doesn’t, the rocks Bernie’s tossing into the political pool in America will create ripples which will circle the world and be felt even here in NZ.
There is light at the end of the tunnel – the unravelling of the neoliberal cobweb has begun!
The usual logic for VP is you pick a complement, both geographic and interests. Since Warren is from the Northeast and shares Sanders’ interests in inequality, healthcare, breaking up Wall St, by conventional wisdom she would be a poor choice. Someone from the western half or south of the US, with foreign policy cred would tick more of the usual boxes.
Yes, I am aware of the ‘conventional wisdom’ and really just raising an idea (or an ideal?).
More importantly, even if he loses, the rest of us stand to gain. A world-wide questioning of the neoliberal logic has begun!
It’s true – but if he’s defeated the defeat will be used to create a “but of course that wouldn’t work” meme before you could say “Blairism”.
The Trump shot taken with the crowd, the Clinton shot taken from behind the stage.
The pictures may say a lot, but they also lie.
You just fell for the usual tricks.
Trump? You’re confused. It’s a Sanders rally.
The Clinton shot can’t be from behind the stage, otherwise the audience are showing her their backs. The organisers are lighting the wrong end of the hall too.
But don’t believe your lying eyes, Clinton is clearly the most electable.