What happened?

Written By: - Date published: 9:44 am, November 10th, 2024 - 120 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, climate change, david seymour, Donald Trump, International, politicans, Shane Jones, us politics - Tags:

As the dust settles and the pundits start punditing it is time to think about what happened in America and how did Trump win?

And perhaps more importantly what are the implications for New Zealand politics?

I can’t think of a less suitable candidate. Apart from the multiple charges he was facing, his deep baked in narcissm and racism, his complete lack of empathy and humanity, his clear signs of mental decline, his lack of understanding of what is happening in the world, his climate change denier views, his facist tendancies and his motivation, whicn appear to be exclusively the pursuit of power and wealth for himself not to mention the ability to pardon himself for his various legal transgressions. He had no vision, no clear idea of where he wants to take the United States and the world. And his views on Europe and Russia will mean that the Ukraine war will be lost and NATO will be severely weakened. Trump’s mate Putin must be grinning from ear to ear. And he tried to overturn the last election result by force.

Trump was the least suitable candidate imagineable.

But he won.

The Democrat Party is reeling.

Publicly Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have made reassuring noises about the transfer of power. There will be no attempted insurrection this time.

Some are pointing the finger at Biden. Given his clear mental decline he should not have sought nomination and after the debate debacle he should have withdrawn more quickly. Harris did not have enough time to establish herself with the public.

Harris’s campaign appeared to be as good as possible. There were no apparent mistakes made and she performed well in the debate.

But it was the basics that mattered.

Three quarters of the country thought the country was on the wrong track. Most thought that their personal circumstances had become worse under the Biden administration.

This has been a difficult time for incumbent governments in western Countries and it does not matter if they are left or right.

Here in Aotearoa New Zealand a year ago Labour was turfed out of office, in Australia the right wing Liberal party was turfed out the year before. The Conservatives in the United Kingdom were humiliated as was Macron’s party in France. Throughout the world it has been a bad time to be an incumbent. The flow on and repercussions of the Covid lock downs including inflation and compromised supply lines have affected people and it does not matter how many times you point this out people hold their governments accountable.

Nationally the Democrats lost 6% points in the presidential race. In the battleground states where their campaign was concentrated it was 3%. Trump made major inroads in Democrat strongholds such as New York and New Jersey and Conneticut and Rhode Island. An active campaign made a difference but it was not enough.

Numerically Trump achieved a similar number of votes to what he achieved last time. But Harris’s 68 million votes were much lower than Biden’s 81 million. Quite a few people chose to sit the election out.

And Gaza hurt the democrats. Arab Americans either sat the election out or some even voted Trump.

Trump had very few policies. He is going to engage in the mass detention of illegal immigrants. He plans to throw the world’s economy into a tail spin by implementing across the board tarriffs. He will give corporations a tax cut. And he will wind back diversity, equity and inclusion programs in government institutions.

He wants to cut federal funding “for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory, gender ideology, or other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content on our children”. In energy he has mimiced Shane Jones and wants to “drill baby drill”. And he will wind back US involvement in Internation affairs.

Harris’s policies were somewhat vague and centrist. Tax cuts for the middle class, increase home ownership, growing business, a clamp down on “bad actors”, bringing down the cost of health care and support unions. They were fine but did not capture the electorate’s imagination.

But economic issues and the perception that the US economy was in bad shape was clearly the main cause fot the loss.

Trump and the Republicans were very happy to invoke fear through cultural issues.

An ad complaining that Harris supported sex change surgery for prisoners and supports letting biological men compete against girls was broadcast repeatedly. There have been two instances where inmates have received gender affirming surgery and this was completed under laws existing during Trump’s previous reign but this did not matter.

Trump also claimed regularly that kids were going to school and receiving gender affirming surgeries before they return home. Dear reader this has not occurred.

Trump campaigned a lot like Luxon last year. Everything was terrible, everything was bad. They fuelled feelings of grievance and this contributed to Labour’s and the Democrat’s failure. Wall to wall negativity is clearly a tactic the right are learning to finesse.

Culture wars are used to divert attention both here and in the United States. The interests of the oil and mining companies and the tobacco companies and the wealthy are then quietly looked after. And sometimes, for instance attacks on the Treaty, they fulfill dual roles in diverting attention while at the same time weakening environmental protection that Maori inevitably provide.

There was also the perception that the Democrats were a privileged elite. The Democrats need fewer PHDs and more Trade Unionist and workiung class candidates. The same could be said for the Labour Party. I believe the success of Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn is evidence that grass root campaigns that are relevant to ordinary people can succeed.

The media does not help. In the US and in New Zealand there is an entrenched right wing media that relentlessly repeats the right’s talking points. The main stream media engages in both sides notions of artificial balance. Progressive media in both countries is weak and lacks the resources of the right wing equivalent.

And it is clear that people now choose their sources of news. And they are not all reliable.

I expect that Trump’s success will energise the local right. Their behaviour will become diabolically bad. The progressive left need to reflect on this and work out the best way to respond.

120 comments on “What happened? ”

  1. SPC 1

    Trump won without discussing policy detail much, he did not run as a politician but as a leader for the people.

    Making all sorts of boasts about his ability and what he could do.

    His staff won in 2016 with a better campaign – Cambridge Analytica and their Facebook hack (data about voters).

    This time the party enrolled 300,000 people in Pennsylvania who had not bothered to register in the past and got them to mail in vote.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-voter-registration-advantage-eroded-pennsylvania-means-2024-rcna176420

    https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2024/09/pennsylvania-voter-registration-2024-election-democrat-republican-independent-harris-trump/

    • SPC 1.1

      The central part of it all is the MAGA movement as part of their revival tradition.

      This was done in three parts

      1.kulture kampf (an alliance against liberals).

      2.America first (ending illegal migration and imposing tariffs).

      3.Christian nationalism (an alliance with those wanting the next "awakening" to be post Democratic era, kingdom come).

    • Infused 1.2

      There is a huge amount known if you were following trump, Vance, elon and jfk

      • SPC 1.2.1

        Following Trump and Vance (they are eating cats and dogs … tariffs are paid by foreign governments … ).

        Whose JFK, the guy who wrote Why England Slept (while facing as fascist threat)?

  2. Joe90 2

    What happened?

    Dude says it out loud.

    .

    I’ve had a lot of conversations since Tuesday revolving around the question of why Donald Trump won. The economy and inflation. Kamala Harris didn’t do this or that. Sexism and racism. The border. That trans-inmate ad that ran a jillion times. And so on.

    These conversations have usually proceeded along lines where people ask incredulously how a majority of voters could have believed this or that. Weren’t they bothered that Trump is a convicted felon? An adjudicated rapist? Didn’t his invocation of violence against Liz Cheney, or 50 other examples of his disgusting imprecations, obviously disqualify him? And couldn’t they see that Harris, whatever her shortcomings, was a fundamentally smart, honest, well-meaning person who would show basic respect for the Constitution and wouldn’t do anything weird as president?

    The answer is obviously no—not enough people were able to see any of those things. At which point people throw up their hands and say, “I give up.”

    But this line of analysis requires that we ask one more question. And it’s the crucial one: Why didn’t a majority of voters see these things? And understanding the answer to that question is how we start to dig out of this tragic mess.

    The answer is the right-wing media. Today, the right-wing media—Fox News (and the entire News Corp.), Newsmax, One America News Network, the Sinclair network of radio and TV stations and newspapers, iHeart Media (formerly Clear Channel), the Bott Radio Network (Christian radio), Elon Musk’s X, the huge podcasts like Joe Rogan’s, and much more—sets the news agenda in this country. And they fed their audiences a diet of slanted and distorted information that made it possible for Trump to win.

    https://newrepublic.com/post/188197/trump-media-information-landscape-fox

    • mpledger 2.1

      When you look at the two people who tried to assassinate Trump, you would have expected them to have some major manifesto with detailed justifications about why it was necessary. But one was barely connected to politics and the other to a really fringe cause (from an American perspective) which didn't really connect to the assassination anyway.

      Despite the media bombardment, people still seemed really unaware of the issues and even that Biden had pulled out. I think we underestimate how much time Americans work and commute and how little free time they have.

      Here is a dual citizen English/American women, who has lived in both countries, talking about why Americans are more likely to fall for cults. It's not directly connected to the election but interesting non-the-less. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z33egsRqpWA

      • joe90 2.1.1

        people still seemed really unaware of the issues

        The memory hole is real.

        Now, the generation that came of age during the #MeToo era is turning to social media for information about candidates and elections — 39 percent of young adults say they frequently get their news from TikTok, according to Pew Research. This week, many said on the social network they were shocked by the former president’s words and confused why the episode wasn’t a dealbreaker in 2016.

        “I don’t think any of my friends had heard it,” said Kate Sullivan, a 21-year-old student in Ohio who heard the tape for the first time on her TikTok For You feed this week. “We all felt equally shocked.”

        […]

        Brigid Quinn, a 15-year-old in Georgia, knew that Trump had been accused of making sexist comments, she said. But she had never heard the words he actually said — including the ‘grab them by the pussy’ quote. She “didn’t understand how people thought this was normal.”

        https://archive.li/MAGYV (wapo)

  3. Anne 3

    The media does not help. In the US and in New Zealand there is an entrenched right wing media that relentlessly repeats talking points. The main stream media engages in both sides notions of artificial balance. Progressive media in both countries is weak and lacks the resources of the right wing equivalent.

    And we saw a perfect example of the above on Q&A this morning. It was extraordinary. If an alien happened to be watching, he/she would have come away with the notion that:

    Nothing much will change. Just a few tweaks here and there. Trump's got it sorted. Yes, he's not always predictable but that can be an advantage. It will keep his adversaries guessing what he will do next. That will be good. Yes, there's a bit of a problem with climate change – end of discussion.

    What his perceived 'adversaries' might think or do about the guessing game apparently is not important. He is effectively planning to bargain the lives of millions of people around the world to salve his desire to be seen as the world's strongman. Yet that didn't warrant a serious mention as far as I could tell.

    It does not auger well for an enlightened and progressive media response to what we know is going to happen over the next few years.

    • mpledger 3.1

      I think a lot more leaders will have got his handle by now. They'll placate him face to face and do nothing. Even friendly leaders will be less invested in keeping American relationships humming – they'll see no economic value when there are tarriffs ahead and they'll see no social value because of the unjustifiable social control imposed on people. They'll see no gain for their countries in that kind of alignment.

  4. Mike the Lefty 4
    1. The Democrats did as in 2016, thought that is wasn't possible that a well-educated , sane and (at least somewhat) progressive woman could lose to a misogynistic, crooked old windbag but once again miscalculated the American masochistic tendency.

    2. The Republicans campaign was much better organized. They got people out to vote (for them) the way the Democrats couldn't. Yes, they lied, they cheated but in American politics the end justifies the means.

    3. Biden held on too long before bowing to the inevitable. Harris had too little time to imprint her personality on voters and show how different she was.

  5. Koina 5

    Trump won in 2016 because it was the Republicans turn to win after 8 years of Obama Americans don't vote for old women (Hillary) . Old decrepit men but not old women.

    America usually gives Presidents two terms.

    But Trump lost in 2020 because of Covid .

    So Republicans were bent on revenge after only getting one term with Trump.

    Biden was a walking corpse.

    Harris did ok but the swinging voters were easy meat for the usual

    White hate for minorities, China + Liberals Trump Rhetoric

    2028 Trump must stand down.

    Even Vance taking over like Harris wont save the Reds.

    A Democratic victory is assured

  6. weston 6

    Boo hoo hoo Trump won an Kamela lost oh boo hoo hoo sob what will we do now .

    Well at least Trump is likely to continue to support the genocide in gaza and Lebanon so thats good right ???

    Supporting and enabling ethnic cleansing by dropping 2000 pound bombs on houses full of civilians is good right ???

    Doesnt surprise me particularly that supporters of the Biden /Harris regime reside right here on TS what surprises me is that they like to delude themselves into imagining that they are LEFT !!!!!LOL

  7. Apart from the multiple charges he was facing, his deep baked in narcissm and racism….

    When your response to such a catastrophic loss is merely to repeat all the arguments and talking points that failed it would be a waste of time to rebut them point-by-point. Suffice to say that a majority of Americans did not believe you, and you can choose either to accept that you were wrong or that they’re stupid.

    Ok, there is a third option, which is that all these reasonably intelligent people were fooled with the aid of the MSM, leading to this…

    In the US and in New Zealand there is an entrenched right wing media that relentlessly repeats the right’s talking points. The main stream media engages in both sides notions of artificial balance.

    Then why aren't they thriving as Righties like me read, watch and listen to them, subscribe to them, buy their papers? In fact why is it the opposite case that increasingly large numbers of us cheer on their steepening decline and look forward to their complete and total destruction?

    One of your commentators above is more on point with the New Republic quote about the growing influence of alternative media, including the likes of Joe Rogan, plus older forms like FoxNews. But all those sources have been looked down upon for decades by the MSM and they haven't grown from nothing just because some rich people have backed them, but because people have dumped the legacy media and switched over, especially the young, who never took to the MSM to start with and are not coming back.

    Even so the NR piece is just more excuse-making and copium. They didn't even mention PewDiePie. 😉

    Oh and Die MSM, Die.

    • Incognito 7.1

      You answered your own questions, which therefore were rhetorical and don’t warrant rebutting and further response.

      Enjoy the rest of your peaceful day.

  8. mikesh 8

    And his views on Europe and Russia will mean that the Ukraine war will be lost and NATO will be severely weakened.

    Which was of course one of the very few things in Trump's favour.
    Though Ukrkraine seems to have pretty well lost anyway going by the displays of desperation coming from Zelenski these days.

    • SPC 8.1

      So you welcome the seizing of territory by war, in breach of international law?

      And the weakening of collective defence in Europe?

      There was a time when all lefties opposed right wing authoritarian (Russia here) regimes doing such things.

      • mikesh 8.1.1

        This is a proxy war between USA and Russia, and the USA does not support imternational law, except of course when it favours them. I think they prefer a "rules based order" where they, or Wall Street, make the rules: a regimen with which, I think, Russia is not in agreement.

        • SPC 8.1.1.1

          Do you support international law?

          I realise you would excuse Russia not doing so, because of USA.

          So nations deemed to be in a "proxy war" between Russia and USA, can have their territory taken and this is OK?

          Do you also have no questions about the annexation of the Golan Heights by Israel (and onto the WB), or Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia because it’s a proxy war?

          • mikesh 8.1.1.1.1

            So nations deemed to be in a "proxy war" between Russia and USA, can have their territory taken and this is OK?

            If a country on Russia's border allies itself with an aggressive enemy of Russia then I would say all bets are off. What would you do if you were Putin and you could envisage missiles lined up along the Ukraine/Russia border at some future date after Ukraine had become a member of NATO. I would say that defense of one's country takes priority over strict adherance to "international law"; a law which your enemy rarely observes anyway.

            The US plan seems to be to create enough problems for Russia in order that Putin might be thrown out of office and a more USA friendly leader elected, which would allow Uncle Sam can spread his poisinous neoliberal polical/economic into Russia and impoverish her. That's why they are keen on continuing a war which Ukraine is losing.

            Ifr you think this is all being done for the benefit of Ukraine, then you are a bigger fool than I would have taken you for.

            • SPC 8.1.1.1.1.1

              You do realise that once one makes the apology for such security first behaviour (warring on neighbours and acquiring territory), for one nation – this is then license for others.

              For mine, it is Cold War thinking, but without the restraint in practice.

              The natural outcome is then defence alliances and increased military spending.

              • mikesh

                And yet, the threat remains. I suggest you take the matter up with comrade Putin himself and see what he has to say about it.

                [If you have nothing useful to say then say nothing and don’t just run off giving another commenter the finger, thanks – Incognito]

              • aj

                The natural outcome is then defence alliances and increased military spending.

                The Security Dilemma.

                https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_dilemma

              • mikesh

                You do realise that once one makes the apology for such security first behaviour (warring on neighbours and acquiring territory), for one nation – this is then license for others.

                And yet, despite all of that, the threat to Russia still exists, and Putin needs to meet it.

                • SPC

                  Chose to meet it in that way.

                  I was debating this issue with someone from Hong Kong in Dec 2021 and concluded Putin would not attack, as it as not his smart move.

                  Germany was resisting increasing its defence spending to 2%, despite it being a 2014 NATO commitment to reach by 2024, and going with the gas pipeline deal (restraint might have led to a review of NATO). Now Sweden and Finland are in NATO and Germany will spend 2% of GDP on defence.

                  • mikesh

                    Now Sweden and Finland are in NATO and Germany will spend 2% of GDP on defence.

                    I'm not sure why. Russia was not threatening Finland, Sweden or Germany; or any other country in Europe for that matter. The possibility that Finland and Sweden might apply for NATO membership was not anticipated when Putin made the decision to invade (as far as I know).

                    I would argue that countries on Russia's border should observe a strict neutrality so as to provide a buffer between Russia and Western Europe. They may not have liked doing so of course, but one cannot argue with geography, and the demands it makes in the political sphere. In the long run, though, Russia, China and Europe will need to put aside their hostilities and realise that that they share a single continent and that it is in the interest of all that that continent be shared in peace; though America is doing its damndest to prevent that from happening.

              • Subliminal

                I think that if you might find that "taboo" was broken some time before Ukraine was invaded. I know memory is hell these days but I'm sure if you applied yourself, you could remember.

                Clue: It was the west what dunnit in their unipolar moment post cold war. And more than once.

                • SPC

                  I covered a few in 8.1.1.1.

                  If you can mention cases that involved annexing of territory go at it.

                  The Balkans was largely a break-up into the component parts, excepting Kosovo out of Serbia to be independent.

                  Turkey has occupied parts of Syria, but not annexed them.

            • joe90 8.1.1.1.1.2

              If a country on Russia's border allies itself with an aggressive enemy of Russia then I would say all bets are off.

              Palestinians on Israel's border have allied themselves with an aggressive enemy of Israel. Are all bets off there, too?

              • mikesh

                Palestinians on Israel's border have allied themselves with an aggressive enemy of Israel. Are all bets off there, too?

                What does that have to do with the Ukraine situation.

                • joe90

                  Hamas have long been allied with Iran.

                  Are all bets off regarding Israel's brutal invasion of Gaza?

      • Infused 8.1.2

        Well it's 800bn and counting. How much longer is the US going to pay, while it itself ticks up massive debts.

        • phillb 8.1.2.1

          That's pretty good, you are only an order of magnitude out

          https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/

          Also a lot of the military aid is actually spent within the US, as most of the hardware comes from Pentagon stocks which the money is used to replenish.

          You should also notice that countries bordering or close to Russia have been donating at very high rates (esp compared to GDP) so they clearly look at Hisory and consider invasion a major threat.

  9. Sanctuary 9

    Vlad Vexlar is basically eveything on this.

  10. Watching DrArleneUnfltrd, an expert on “All things Politics, Government and Elections” explain the election is an excellent lesson.

  11. Maurice 11

    What Happened:

    Three masterpieces of electioneering

    1) Rising defiant after the first assassination attempt

    2) The McDonalds stint (about 15 scripted minutes!)

    3) The Garbage truck pantomime

    Each struck the right cord with his potential voters.

  12. Dennis Frank 12

    I largely concur with your analytical overview, although Trump believes the msm is leftist (except Fox & Breitbart). Your belief that it is rightist balances that perfectly.

    Harris’s campaign appeared to be as good as possible. There were no apparent mistakes made and she performed well in the debate. But it was the basics that mattered. Three quarters of the country thought the country was on the wrong track. Most thought that their personal circumstances had become worse under the Biden administration.

    Quite so. Then there's this:

    Democrats suffered a 10 point drop among Latino women, while failing to move the needle among non-college educated women at all, who again went for Trump 63-35, preliminary data suggests. The shortfall was not for lack of trying. Throughout her 15-week campaign, much of Harris’s messaging was aimed directly at women…

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3e8z53qyd5o

    Seems like a marketing strategy failure: the product just didn't have sufficient mass appeal. Somehow the felon with multiple convictions appealed more.

    • joe90 12.1

      Then there’s this:

      The parents in this story came here illegally as teenagers and became citizens under the Reagan amnesty.

      But they're not worried about Trump because he'll only deport the bad people.

      @cwebbonline

      A Latino family who voted for Trump speaks out. Not going to lie—this is tough to watch. SPOILER ALERT: It was about the economy. Trump’s threats of mass deportation didn’t matter to them, as they believe it won’t affect their undocumented relatives, because they aren’t criminals.

      https://xcancel.com/cwebbonline/status/1855038532475031740

      • Visubversa 12.1.1

        And we saw a republican elected person from Florida saying on PBS News that the deportations would only apply to people who came here illegally in the last 4 years. I bet that is as true as everything else Trump says.

  13. Well I have had a peaceful day; it is Sunday after all. So rather than get into more of the ugly details of this disaster let's travel back in time to early July where we can watch Jon Stewart nail down the rhetorical problems with Biden – and more importantly his Party and the MSM – as a preview of what would happen with Kamala and the election,

    Take it away Jon.

    • Incognito 13.1

      Of course, your Sunday was peaceful because you were commenting here on TS.

      You’ve confirmed yet again that it frequently is futile to respond to RW rhetoric that deflects and diverts by default.

  14. Psycho Milt 14

    An ad complaining that Harris supported sex change surgery for prisoners and supports letting biological men compete against girls was broadcast repeatedly. There have been two instances where inmates have received gender affirming surgery and this was completed under laws existing during Trump’s previous reign but this did not matter.

    If so, it would have been a very easy ad for the Democrats to respond to. However, they were unable to make a response.

  15. tsmithfield 15

    I think that voters simply thought Trump would be best for their back pockets. I don't think they cared very much about all the negative stuff about Trump. I think they were well aware of all that, and still voted for him.

    In some ways, that gives some reassurance to the extent that gotcha style politics likely won't triumph over substance. Though, in this case, I don't like the idea of Trump being elected at all.

    The other problem was that I think Biden hung on too long. And I am not convinced that Harris was the best candidate. If the trigger had been pulled earlier, they might have been able to have a much more contestable process in electing a leader.

    The thing I find troubling is that a country the size of the US can't find two better candidates than what they had.

    • Maurice 15.1

      The thing I find troubling is that a country the size of the US can't find two better candidates than what they had.

      A more horrible thought is that both are the 'best' the present US political system can some up with …..

  16. Ad 16

    Kamala blew a 5-point post Convention bump, and had the full 4 years of name and delivery recognition, and attracted massive celebrity endorsements from celebrity and political giants, and massive funding hauls, yet still went backwards so fast and took the whole Dem team down with her. Hope the Dems bury her.

    I don't for a second buy any criticism of the media when Republicans were not natural fits with the digital media empires so they made their own and succeeded.

    And sure the sun will rise tomorrow, incumbency is hard, the other side were mean, whatever.

    To me the model to watch isn't Bernie Sanders or Corbyn. The model is Starmer: get in office on low policy and then tax the crap out of them.

    • Dennis Frank 16.1

      smiley Got a chuckle out of your closer there, but is he actually doing it? If so, cue an essay on that topic to prove it. If still in the pipeline, defer.

    • SPC 16.2

      Kamala blew a 5-point post Convention bump, and had the full 4 years of name and delivery recognition, and attracted massive celebrity endorsements from celebrity and political giants, and massive funding hauls, yet still went backwards so fast and took the whole Dem team down with her.

      First there is little change in the House.

      And Biden does not buy that fact free narrative.

      1.The GOP had a significant lead in the polls.

      2.The bump she got took it back to even. Back in the race.

      3.People presumed being back in the race meant she would pull ahead and go on to win.

      Some pollsters never showed her ahead. These were the more accurate ones.

      4.Polls showed Trump ahead in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and N Carolina. Leaving her one path to win, in the rust belt, just as with Clinton in 2016.

      5.The results in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were close in 2016 and 2020.

      There were concerns about the Michigan vote (Arab and Moslem discontent), but the relative change in party registration 2020-2024 in Pennsylvania (the GOP registered a lot of older newbies and got them to mail in vote) also had impact.

      Clinton had a large poll lead but lost some close races, Biden an even larger lead and just won the marginals. Harris never had much of a lead in nationwide polls and was known to be behind or at risk in the marginals.

      • SPC 16.2.1

        The Senate results are not a total disaster – holding in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan and Arizona (Montana, Ohio and WV are gone). And it is still close in the Pennsylvania count (still a chance of 48-52).

  17. Anker 17

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/11/11/take-it-from-a-metropolitan-liberal-we-are-why-trump-won/

    heres another perspective as to why Trump lost, written by a “metropolitan liberal”

    fully expect this to be shouted down cause it was published on Spike. Up to you all whether you do or not. I don’t care. But it might open your eyes to a different perspective on what’s happening across the West.

    there are many other reasons Trump won.
    The media in NZ is neither right or left, it’s woke. Trust in the media in NZ is going through the floor.

    • Dennis Frank 17.1

      yes short, succinct, and accurate

      • SPC 17.1.1

        No it is not.

        It is a caricature of what happened, and is based on a right wing kulture kampf narrative.

        But, why am I not surprised?

        The writer is a libertarian who is pro Brexit, a person with a background in the centrist Liberal Democrat (mainstream managerial of the status quo and Remain).

        What a lapse from the sensible centre.

        The right wing drift towards economic nihilism and base nationalism is an indication of a move to radical exclusionism.

        The "metropolitan liberal" concedes they were never invited to dinner parties with the liberal left and was not sad about that, indicating they have had a long term animous towards anything left wing and from an illiberal place.

        Thus a tendency to adopt right wing narratives to "offer advice" to them after an election defeat in the USA.

        And acceptable to right wing media in the UK facing 5 years of tax increases under Labour (the Tories ran the same lines in the UK and it did not prevent election defeat).

        • Incognito 17.1.1.1

          No it is not.

          Let me help you with interpreting DF’s comment; what he meant is that he liked it and therefore agreed with it. Therefore, DF’s comment was ‘short, succinct, and accurate’.

          QED

          • SPC 17.1.1.1.1

            … and the article linked to was simplistic and short, not a serious article and either indicative of a serious decline of standards in right wing UK media, or a post Tory government "funk".

            • Incognito 17.1.1.1.1.1

              All true; you need to read between the lines and feel the vibe. One can be knee-deep in shit but feel awesome if one takes the right pill.

      • SPC 17.1.2

        Short and succinct.

        1.The Democrats are not going to win by giving up feminism to attract more young male voters.They won among young female voters.

        2.there is research that shows what issues concerned voters. Social conservative kulture kampf did not register.

        https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/

        • Dennis Frank 17.1.2.2

          Wrong again: that site analyses left & right voters. Its why leftist commentators are perpetually unable to figure out what's going on in the world around them. The binary frame operates just like blinkers on a horse. Can you provide evidence that the site has analysed the other third of the electorate?

          Doesn't matter how many times I've pointed out to them that western democracies have had a 3-way division since the polls first showed it during the Reagan era, leftists continue to pretend that non-aligned voters don't exist. Sociopathy.

          • SPC 17.1.2.2.1

            Your reckons …

            my 17.1.2.1 statistica. A sample of everyone.

            The two issues cited in the article you agree with, were not sighted as issues of concern in that polling.

            The phrase wrong again, when you fled the last debate is, so you.

            4.

            https://thestandard.org.nz/the-axis-of-genocide/#comment-2016906

            • Dennis Frank 17.1.2.2.1.1

              So you don't understand binary framing. Typical leftist ignorance. sad

              That the researchers use it to limit their vision is unsurprising, as their message must suit their funders, but the guts is that swing voters decide most election outcomes and selectively ignoring them is idiocy.

        • weka 17.1.2.3

          1.The Democrats are not going to win by giving up feminism to attract more young male voters.They won among young female voters.

          I don't think that article said anything about giving up feminism. Where did you get that?

          2.there is research that shows what issues concerned voters. Social conservative kulture kampf did not register.

          Did the research look at the gestalt of voting choices and how identity politics might play into that even where it is not the top priority?

          • SPC 17.1.2.3.1

            1.

            But men, particularly young men, are an even bigger issue for the Democrats, and indeed, all centre-left parties across the West. Trump’s victory should be a wake-up call on that front.

            I think the whole ‘toxic masculinity’ narrative has been a total disaster for the centre-left, …. Young men are being told constantly that they do not matter, that they should shut up, that they have privilege, that many of the things they like to do for fun are somehow ‘problematic’.***

            This is why people like Andrew Tate have such a seemingly inexplicably large following – who is creating a positive view of masculinity from a liberal-left perspective?

            This is not just untrue, its also a weak argument. And it comes from an anti-feminist narrative.

            ***What is that … incels gaming and porn and social connection via 4 chan and 8 chan Q in the basement… ?

            • weka 17.1.2.3.1.1

              sorry, I'd only read half the piece because of the stupid ad in the fold and thinking I had read the whole thing.

            • weka 17.1.2.3.1.2

              This is not just untrue, its also a weak argument. And it comes from an anti-feminist narrative.

              Really? That's an assertion without any kind of argument behind it, and for me as a lifelong feminist, and the only regular feminist author on TS, it irks to see dismissal instead of analysis and engagement on the points.

              I also believe that toxic masculinity memes are damaging, as is the whole toxic white person thing. The point is that telling people they are stupid/toxic/wrong does not garner votes.

              I've seen that whole dynamic play out in TS. Back in the day, I trusted that feminists could make strong arguments against patriarchal structural issues, and that men of all kinds would respond with intelligence politics and we would all figure out how to move forward. But since the replacement of class analysis (sex, socioeconomic, ethnicity) with identity politics has sold out so many people to the neoliberal clusterfuck, we no longer have classic left/right politics. This is central to everything else, and it’s the same shit that makes Labour wedded to centrism. The only thing that changes that is the left changing.

              You want to know why the right is more liberal on women's issues now? Because initially progressives shifted the overton window, and them more recently, the libertarians took over the right and they love having women like their politics.. The scariest thing for me as a woman after the climate crisis is knowing deeply that women's rights are flimsy and can disappear just like that.

              Instead of talking about the left's role in that, most people just want to blame the right, it's a massive fail.

              That argument you quoted, I've seen that being made by lefties before. It's not simply a RW talking point.

              • SPC

                For mine use of the word privilege (in that sentence), was indicative of criticism of feminism.

                If you think, the right is the more liberal on women's issues now, I do not think we have enough of a common frame of reference for a dialogue/debate.

                And the left's class analysis, is not surpassed by/because of identity politics.

                The right is practicing class war after all.

                • weka

                  If you think, the right is the more liberal on women's issues now, I do not think we have enough of a common frame of reference for a dialogue/debate.

                  Possibly, but I'm nearly 60 and I can see huge differences between the 70s and now. You know, back in the time when rape in marriage was legal, and women couldn't get a check book without their husband. How is the right not more liberal on those things now?

                  I also think we are losing ground, but that's a different dynamic, and as I said, women's rights are fragile hence the loss of abortion rights in the US. People thinking it can't happen here really aren't paying attention.

                  • SPC

                    You want to know why the right is more liberal on women's issues now

                    I took that to mean more liberal than the left (now).

                    As to where the right is, libertarians can and are being moved to the right on the abortion issue (and wider issue of family planning clinic funding etc).

                    If you note the legislation in the Russian parliament, you will see where the right is going with the women as mothers agenda, as Vance is advocating (albeit via persuasion) in the USA.

                    For mine the issue at hand is

                    1.is self ID a risk to women’s safety and if so, what is to be done?

                    2.should there be two categories, one biological sex and the other gender identity?

                • weka

                  For mine use of Youthe word privilege (in that sentence), was indicative of criticism of feminism.

                  Here's what he said,

                  A lot of young men voted for Donald Trump. And while I am not a fan of Trump myself, I get it. I think the whole ‘toxic masculinity’ narrative has been a total disaster for the centre-left, more so than even the trans stuff. Young men are being told constantly that they do not matter, that they should shut up, that they have privilege, that many of the things they like to do for fun are somehow ‘problematic’. This is why people like Andrew Tate have such a seemingly inexplicably large following – who is creating a positive view of masculinity from a liberal-left perspective?

                  From a feminist perspective, telling men they are shit is a problem, because feminists have husbands/partners, sons, fathers, male friends, and because we know that we need men to agree with our politics, not be antagonised away from them.

                  How is this statement wrong?

                  Young men are being told constantly that they have privilege.

                  Do you think they aren't being told that? Or do you think that they are but it doesn't matter?

                  I think they are being told that. There are some men who will use the backlash against feminism because they hate women and/or feminism. But there are also men who don't hate women but who are sick of the put downs. Why would they listen to liberals telling them they suck when they can get affirmed by men following Tate?

                  It's strategy that's being discussed here.

                  • SPC

                    What the metropolitan liberal (actually now a libertarian nationalist) said adopting (pretending to believe) a right wing narrative about feminism. It is not true. It was a gaslighting of feminism and thus feminists. Since when do feminists let men get away with that?

                    2.Young men are being told constantly that they have privilege.

                    Those who go onto college maybe, more so with the arts degree. Not so much others. And so what. Are they not more safe, why is that? If they affirm Tate, they are lost till they grow up.

                    The first part of war, do not fight it on their terms.

                    • weka

                      are you saying that believe young men aren't generally told they have privilege?

                      What the metropolitan liberal (actually now a libertarian nationalist) said adopting (pretending to believe) a right wing narrative about feminism. It is not true. It was a gaslighting of feminism and thus feminists. Since when do feminists let men get away with that?

                      How is it gaslighting feminism?

                  • Drowsy M. Kram

                    ME [Shafiqah Hudson]: Men and boys are socially instructed to not listen to us. They are taught to interrupt us when we–

                    RANDOM MAN: Excuse me. Not ALL men.

                    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NotAllMen

                    From a feminist perspective, telling men they are shit is a problem…

                    Otoh, see something, say somethingsome people are shit! Trump is POTUS, again – what that tells women, and men, is also a problem.

                    John Oliver on the US election: ‘Despair doesn’t help anything [11 Nov 2024]
                    It is not news that Trump’s overt white supremacy and misogyny appeal to many of his voters,” said Oliver. “It’s also not news that many like to hide that by claiming all they’re really worried about is the economy. But clearly for others, there is a willful denial going on about him. Because Trump lies so constantly, people have a sense that you can pick and choose what things he actually believes and create a version of him that suits you.

                    The host then looked ahead to Trump’s second term, starting with a chart of potential Trump administration appointees… “it looks like an advent calendar where every circle opens up to a tiny piece of literal shit.

                    What Just Happened? [13 Nov 2024]
                    You don't point to someone and say, "don't be selfish." Instead, you say "look what kindness can get you."

                    "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."
                    — John Kenneth Galbraith

                    The Overton window is shifting – progressives can adapt or 'die' sad

                    What does Donald Trump’s win mean for his brand of populist authoritarianism? [12 Nov 2024]
                    After a decade of the upheaval Trump has fuelled, mainstreaming extremism has become a proven formula for winning elections. The most basic question emphasized by the Trump-Harris showdown was: Can cautious centrism defeat paranoid populism?

                    In America in 2024, it could not.

                    Disinformation enabled Donald Trump’s second term and is a crisis for democracies everywhere [12 Nov 2024]
                    It’s tempting to say that X is just one platform, that it couldn’t happen in the UK, and that this is restricted to the US. But this is wishful thinking—remember the spread of disinformation about the 2024 UK riots, which was aided directly by Musk. The 2024 presidential election provides a powerful playbook for populist extremists everywhere.

          • SPC 17.1.2.3.2

            Did the research look at the gestalt of voting choices and how identity politics might play into that even where it is not the top priority?

            No, that research did not.

            Do you know of any that did?

            • weka 17.1.2.3.2.1

              no. But it's what I would be asking if I really wanted to know why people vote the way they do, and which issues are at play.

  18. SPC 18

    Nick Tyrone is a journalist, novelist and writer who has published articles in The Spectator, Daily Express, The Independent, New Statesman.

    Nick Tyrone is a former director of CentreForum, described as 'the closest thing the Liberal Democrats have had to a think tank'. He is author of several books including 'Politics is Murder'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiked_(magazine)

  19. Anker 19

    SPC. And your point is. people on the left have a choice. They can either read from a wide range of views on issues such as why Trump won US election in order to have the best chance of figuring what went wrong and have the best chance of reversing it, or they can attack any messengers who provide a different point of view and stay in their bubble.

    totally over to you

    • Incognito 19.1

      Crap in, crap out.

      QED

    • SPC 19.2

      Incumbents are losing.

      Those with an agenda will gaslight the losers because

      schadenfreude, the emotional experience of pleasure in response to another's misfortune. Schadenfreude is a German word that combines Schaden, which means “damage,” and Freude, which means “joy.” The concept is common to people across cultures, but some languages do have comparable words

      Starmer, asked what is a women, won because the Tories were incumbents, not because of what his answer was.

  20. Anker 20

    This is an interesting analysis. I don't agree with it all, but some very good points. Dr Grande is a Mental Health Clinician who most often does podcasts on crime. He covered the David Bain and Philip Polkinghorne case and they were thoughtful and well researched. He also covered Biden's mental fitness to stand for office. Around two and a half years ago his verdict was that Biden's was mentally fit to hold office. Then about 10 months ago he did another and his verdict was that Biden mental processes had deteriorated to the point that he was unfit to hold office.

    Up to you on The Standard if you want to read or listen outside your bubble to try and make sense of why Trump had such a resounding victory

    • Drowsy M. Kram 20.1

      … to try and make sense of why Trump had such a resounding victory

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump

      Trump is a rich 'businessman' turned celebrity turned politician whose words and deeds resonate with many in the US and abroad. He won two presidential elections against female candidates, and lost one against a male candidate. In my inconsequential opinion, Trump the criminal is not particularly admirable, but he is living his dream.

      Stanford’s Robert Gordon on the History of Presidential Crimes and the Significance of the Trump Conviction [30 May 2024]

      On Thursday, May 30 [2024], former president Donald J. Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a case stemming from a payment that silenced a porn star. It was a historic first—the first former or sitting president to be tried and convicted of a felony crime.

      Trump hush-money judge delays ruling on whether to throw out conviction [12 Nov 2024]

      Trump’s lawyers argued over the weekend that there are “strong reasons for the requested stay, and eventually dismissal of the case in the interests of justice”, according to their aforementioned letter.

      Trump’s election victory has derailed his other criminal cases. The special prosecutor Jack Smith is winding down the federal election interference and classified documents cases against Trump.

      "in the interests of justice" laugh

    • Incognito 20.2

      This is an interesting analysis. I don’t agree with it all, but some very good points.

      What do you find interesting and why? What don’t you agree with and why not?

      Instead of spamming this site with irrelevant bios of the messengers and why they might be so wonderfully interesting, accurate, and right, with the mandatory ‘evidential’ YT video, you could try to start a genuine robust debate here.

    • joe90 20.3

      Dr Grande is a Mental Health Clinician who most often does podcasts on crime.

      Dr Grande is a Mental Health Clinician wannabe Jordan Peterson with dreams of online guruness who most often does podcasts on crime whatever outrage de jour he thinks will generate the views required to properly monetise his online guruness.

      fify

      /

      https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/riogrande51

    • weka 20.4

      Up to you on The Standard if you want to read or listen outside your bubble to try and make sense of why Trump had such a resounding victory

      I found the Spiked article interesting, and no-one has really addressed the issues it raised. In that sense I agree with you that left, including on TS, isn't good at listening to diverse views and understanding voter preferences.

      But also, maybe stop insulting other commenters, and start putting out your own ideas. I see you saying 'read this, it's useful, but I don't expect you to read it because you all have closed minds'. I don't see you saying why you thought it was useful. This is why Incognito is being rude and calling it spam. We all know how to find interesting things to read, what we are here for is the exchange of ideas.

      • weka 20.4.1

        btw, we have an unofficial moratorium on the gender/sex debate atm on TS, so let's not use that as an example. Plenty of other aspects.

        And from my left wing feminist pov, the arguments will make more sense if you use less right wing commenters/writers (just looking at Joe90's comment). Why would lefties bother reading something written by a colleague of Peterson's? If you want to cite the ideas you think are useful, then cite the ideas and explain your thinking.

        • Anker 20.4.1.1

          An unofficial moratorium on sex/gender debate? Why?

          • weka 20.4.1.1.1

            big shitstorm over some of the debate and Lynn taking issue with some of what's been happening, and also issues around whether it puts TS at legal risk.

            • Anker 20.4.1.1.1.1

              I don’t understand, how would it put the Standard at legal risk”.

              i saw some of Lyn’s comments on this issue.

              • weka

                not totally sure and it was a conversation in the back end so I can't repeat it here, but ultimately Lynn is one of the Trustees, and the Trustees are the ones who bear any legal risk. I disagree with Lynn's politics on the issue, but he has a lot of experience with legal issues and online publishing and being in court. Micky is a lawyer. I trust them to set the boundary.

                They didn't impose a moratorium, which is why I used the term informal. From my pov as a mod there were also problems with the debate and I had to ban long term commenters on both sides. Others left of their own accord, again on both sides. Lots of commenters were sick of the whole thing. And so on.

                If people want to debate that topic here again, my own view is that the standard of debate needs to lift considerably. The issues I have been pointing out to you here about making the case for your argument are pertinent. Link dropping and insulting people won't work.

                You don't have to argue with people, but you do have to present a coherent political point. The insulting stuff just looks like mild flaming tbh, although I know that is not your intention.

      • Anker 20.4.2

        Glad you found the Spiked article intersting. Spiked have a lot excellent coverage of Trumps victory including people from various sides of the fence.

        It certainly wasn't my intention to insult people and I am not sure I did (but if I did my apologies).

        When I post here nowadays I have decided it is best not to argue with people, just to present information, which they can either read or not. I guess what I was trying to get across is I fully expected the response I got from people who responded to me, with the exception of your good self. That is people critiquing the messenger, rather than the message. That is their perogative, but they are denying themselves the chance to be informed through a wider lens. Their choice of course. However I believe that Trumps victory is inpart because the left wing/democrats didn't listen to the ordinary American people. So my point was if you want to prevent Trump or Brexit for example, it pays to open your mind to what the other side are thinking.

  21. I thought Bomber's rant was interesting but also smacked of victim-blaming. It wasn't "the woke" it was the insane RWNJ framing of some issues.

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2024/11/09/the-woke-and-a-broken-fourth-estate-handed-trump-the-culture-war-ammunition-he-used-to-destroy-america/

    The MAGA fascists, religious right, and low information voters bought into the messages of hate and fear spread by a global propaganda machine. And behind all that is the billionaire class pulling the strings.

    • Anker 21.1

      "low information voters". Do you not realise how deeply insulting it is to refer to people in this way. Same as calling them deplorables or garbage.

      • weka 21.1.1

        what would you call them?

        • Anker 21.1.1.1

          I would call them voters or citizens

          I really don't think many anti Trump people realise how it is insulting for their fellow citizens to be catagorized in thesse negative terms. Even worse when NZders do it as we can't really know what issues American citizens deam as important. It is imo highly patronising to think we know better than them especially as it seems Trump captured the working class vote.

          https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/11/05/they-still-dont-get-it/

          “they still don’t get that there is a class war and they are on the wrong side of it”

          • roblogic 21.1.1.1.1

            I know some of these people personally and “low information” is a polite way of saying it. I could have used much more inflammatory language. I understand there are complex dynamics at play but in the end the MAGA followers are mostly ignorant of science, get their news from Fox and Facebook, don't know or care about policy, and hold very strong (xenophobic) views about God and America and think that Democrats are literally demons.

            If you’re upset about rude words perhaps check what Trumpists say about liberals sometime. Jan 6 was just the warmup, they were planning a civil war if Kamala won. There could well be militia forming and planning purges when Trump takes power.

            Repub propaganda has been highly successful in convincing the working class and disaffected young men that Trump is on their side. Even though project 2025 is going to destroy their future.

            • Anker 21.1.1.1.1.1

              You know some of these people? Like how many? America has a very large population.

              I always chuckle when I hear the left acussing the right of being anti science when it was the Dems promoting an ideology (I won't say which ideology because it is not being talked of on this site) which has the most unscientific beliefs at its core.

              But yeah, they did it too, ie the maga people or was that just Trump whose rudeness and hypebole we have not seen the likes of. What do you hear from the likes of the people you know

            • Anne 21.1.1.1.1.2

              I know some of these people personally and “low information” is a polite way of saying it.

              Don't waste energy trying to explain the reality to Anker. She/he doesn't listen. She/he is down a rabbit hole.

          • weka 21.1.1.1.2

            I would call them voters or citizens

            That doesn't differentiate between informed voters and those not informed, so it doesn't work as a substitute.

            I totally agree about language like deplorables. We still need language to talk about different groups of people though.

            • Anker 21.1.1.1.2.1

              Why do you need to know about whose informed or whose not? I think this term was largely used for Trump voters and really its a polite way of saying stupid voters.

              If there is a need to know how informed voters were, one way to do this would be to take a sample of voters across the spectrum and ask them questions that might indicate they are high or low in information, rather than using it for one side.

              Some people vote with their gut I think. e.g "am I better off under govt A or govt B". I think that is a valid way to decide who to vote for.

              I also think a lot of people who voted Trump listened to the Dems and felt gaslit e.g over the trans issue, immigration etc.

                • Because this seems to be your primary point regarding people who voted for Trump, and since it has been a long-held belief of many on the Left everywhere, I thought these two quotes were a perfect fit for you:

                  Even the one concession I've heard a few people on the losing side offer, that liberals should stop saying the Trump voters are stupid – comes with a kind of unspoken parenthesis, we know they are stupid just don't say it.
                  ….

                  The basis for Democratic campaigns has become – we're the smart people. That we know from the get-go, no need to look into that, we know that a priori – which is a Latin phrase the red hat people wouldn't have a clue about.

                  That from Bill Maher as he pleads with the Democrat Party not to ever be so stupid again. But I don't think the Left is capable of not feeling superior in all ways to its opponents.

                  I also appreciated his graphs showing that Blacks and Hispanics had higher opinions of the US than White Progressives, plus also disagreeing with "Whitey" on things like structural racism and immigration.

                  You love to speak truth to power and we always should but you have completely lost the ability to speak truth to bullshit.

                  • roblogic

                    Dem supporters should stop speaking the truth?

                    Currently, 45 million Americans are functionally illiterate and cannot read above a fifth-grade level. 50% of adults cannot read a book written at an eighth-grade level. 57% of students failed the California Standards Test in English. 1/3 of fourth-graders reach the proficient reading level.

                    Lack of critical thinking skills seems to correlate with susceptibility to right wing bullshit.

                    image credit

                    • joe90

                      'Murica wallows in it's stupidity.

                      /

                      We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated,

                      – Donald Trump 2016

                      Yesterday Jemele Hill recirculated a study YouGov did in 2022 about the gaps between people’s perceptions and reality.

                      YouGov asked a series of questions on “What percentage of Americans do you think are [fill in the blank]?” with the [blank] being all sorts of qualities: black, gay, Christian, left-handed, own a passport, etc.

                      The results were hilarious. Here are some of the percentages that Americans (on average) think their fellow citizens are:

                      • Transgender: 21 percent
                      • Muslim: 27 percent
                      • Jewish: 30 percent
                      • Black: 41 percent
                      • Live in New York City: 30 percent
                      • Gay or lesbian: 30 percent

                      We’ll get to the actual, in vivo percentages in a moment. First I want to point out the absurdity: 1-in-3 are gay/lesbian? Muslims and Jews make up 57 percent of the country? Blacks are 40 percent of the population?

                      Not to be crass, but if a third of the population is gay/lesbian then where are all the kids coming from?

                      If a quarter of the country is Muslim and a third is Jewish, then mosques plus synagogues would outnumber churches. Does anyone see more mosques and synagogues than churches as they drive around?

                      https://www.thebulwark.com/p/americans-have-one-very-strange-cognitive

              • weka

                Why do you need to know about whose informed or whose not?

                Because democracy depends on some level of truth and understanding among humans.

  22. Dave 22

    Harris was a dreadful candidate. Enuf said

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